The migration crisis and the "attack" of Islam in Europe: the possible consequences and threats
Despite a slight decrease in the number of refugees arriving in Europe after the agreement between the EU and Turkey came into force, the migration crisis is far from over. According to the information of the head of European diplomacy F. Mogherini, there are more than 500 thousands of people in Libya who are ready to migrate to Europe. According to other data, their number exceeds 1 million.
The mass arrival of migrants to the continent increases tensions between EU members, threatens the socio-economic development of those countries where refugees mostly fall. Another important direction of the impact of the migration crisis is the new "attack" of Islam in Europe. Thus, it is estimated that more than 80% of refugees are Muslims, which greatly increases the influence of the local Islamic diasporas.
Some experts have already compared the current migration crisis with the invasion of the Saracens, when in the VII-VIII centuries Muslims conquered the Mediterranean, landed on the Iberian Peninsula and began to move north. The expansion of the Omeyad Caliphate was stopped in 732 by the Battle of Poitiers (Fig.1), in which the combined forces of the Franks defeated the Umayyad army. Many Western historians and writers believe that this victory prevented the conquest of Europe by Islam and saved Christianity on the continent.
Repeated attempts of Muslims to penetrate into Europe by armed means were noted from the 8th to the 10th centuries, and then from the 14th to the 18th centuries, which in Western historiography was viewed as a duel of the cross and crescent, although they had more geopolitical rather than religious reasons. In turn, under the pretext of protecting the Christian church, the Vatican and the European aristocracy carried out a series of crusades in the Middle East. Jerusalem and the Holy Land were freed from the Muslims, although they later came under their control again. These wars were accompanied by anti-Islamic propaganda. Religion of Muslims was presented to Europe as faith unrighteous and evil, and the Saracens were the "servants of the devil", which had a tangible impact on European public opinion of the time.
Even today, many in Europe are still poorly informed about the religious, everyday, and cultural characteristics of the Islamic world. Muslims arriving in Europe to avoid death in areas of armed conflict, in search of work and better living conditions, have their own religious identity and identity. The experience of the first and second wave migrants who came from the countries of the Arab Maghreb and Turkey showed that there was no integration of Muslims into the European community. The assimilation policy yielded results only in the field of foreign language proficiency, but this did not happen in the religious and related cultural and everyday spheres.
The current wave of refugees from the Near, Middle East and North Africa exceeds the previous scale. The plans of Brussels to integrate them into European society in modern conditions are simply unreal. 2015 million refugees, most of whom are Muslims, arrived in Europe in 1,8 year. In 2016, their number may increase further. Currently, according to the Pew research center, the number of Muslims in Europe reaches 44 million, within the European Union - 19 million.
In the EU, Germany and France have the highest rates, each of which has approximately 4,7 million Muslims. In the UK, there are about 2.9 million. In relation to the number of Muslims living in the total population, the highest rates in France are 7.5% of the population. In the Netherlands, the Muslim population is 6%, in Belgium - 5,9%, in Germany - 5,8%, in the UK 5,8%. In Paris and its suburbs, there are more Muslims than in any other European city - about 1,7 million.
In addition to the increase in Muslims in Europe due to migration, their number is also growing due to the natural increase in the population of countries inhabited by people of Islamic faith. They have more children than their parents - Christians (Fig. 2). For example, in the European Union, the birth rate among the indigenous white population is on average 1,38 a child per family. In France, this figure is for Christians 1,8, while for the Islamic population it is 8,1 child per family. This trend is actively promoted by Muslim preachers. So, the imam in one of the mosques during the sermons urged the parishioners to have as many children as possible. Similar views are shared by the majority of migrants who have arrived in Europe, who seek in this way to avoid deportation and receive maximum social benefits for children.
According to European experts, while maintaining even the current population growth rates after about 35 years, France will become an Islamic republic. In the south of the country, historically one of the most densely populated Christian areas of the world, there are currently more mosques operating than Christian churches.
A similar situation is noted in the UK. For a relatively short period, the Muslim population there increased from 80 thousand to 3 million people - in 36 times. There are more than 1000 mosques in the country, many of which were formerly Christian churches. In Holland, 50 percent of all newborns are from Muslim parents. According to local estimates, already in 12 years, half of the population of this country will be Muslim. In Belgium, 50 percent of newborns and 25 percent of the total population are currently Muslim.
It should be noted that Islam is one of the major world religions and by the number of its followers (about 1,5 billion people, approximately 27,7% of the population of the Earth). Islam played a significant role in stories human civilization. Islamic history, culture and philosophical and literary heritage is remarkable for its extraordinary wealth, depth and diversity. Their achievements, especially in the field of theology and philosophy, are recognized in many countries of the world, where representatives of other religious denominations live.
No other world religion attracts such attention as Islam today. Some experts refer Islam to one of the most dynamic and viable religions of our time. In no other religion, there is no such percentage of believers passionately and selflessly devoted to Islam who sincerely fulfill all the provisions of Muslim dogma and religious rules.
One of the important features of Islam is that for its followers it is not just a system of faith and worship (Fig.3), but also a way of life, and its norms include domestic rules and elements of civil, criminal and even constitutional law. Islam has historically been and remains the main ideological basis of the culture and social structure of Muslim countries and regions, permeating all spheres of their life. In each of these countries, Islam has its own characteristics and specifics, however, in general, these differences are insignificant (they mainly concern theology issues) compared with the unity of general ideas, customs, and customs, which created the common religious basis of Muslims.
This was facilitated by the fact that in everyday life, the moral, ritual and cult forms of Islam are actually absorbed with mother’s milk in many countries for a long time, or rather forever, and form a particular Muslim human psychology. Therefore, it can be said that, despite all the specifics of specific countries of the Islamic world, a Muslim born in his environment will always remain a Muslim in any other conditions. Due to this, for more than 1,5 billion Muslims in different languages Islam is not only a common religion, but also a social and political force that contributes to the formation of a certain way of life, a common culture of worldview, no matter where they are and live.
Islam is an Arabic word meaning “submission”, “obedience”, “worship” (the one god is Allah), and his followers are called Muslims, from the Arabic word “muslim”, i.e. humble, loyal. An important element in Islam is Sharia - a system of religious laws governing the norms of morality and ethics, Muslim rites and holidays, economic and other aspects of life. It contains a list of prohibitions allowed and denied actions. Sharia and its laws actually cover the entire vital activity of every Muslim.
Moral norms that Muslims must follow are quite diverse (Figure 4). They include, in particular, truthfulness, sincerity, the expulsion of anger, hatred, envy and other vices from the heart, modesty, the search for wisdom and knowledge, the desire to devote all your time and your life to good deeds, aversion to evil and sin, etc. Muslims must refrain from acts that could corrupt and destroy a person. Adherents of Islam should avoid anything that could harm the body and soul: food forbidden to Muslims (pork), alcohol, tobacco, drugs, and gambling.
A Muslim man is obliged to take care of the maintenance of the family, he can marry up to four women at a time. Extramarital affair is strictly prohibited. Unaccompanied women are not allowed to go to cinemas and other public places, including cafes and restaurants. Certain restrictions are imposed on the appearance of women at home and on the streets.
In the countries of the Islamic world, the Western way of life, which was considered immoral from the point of view of traditional Muslim morality, was traditionally negative. The prevalence of alcoholism in the West, drug use, prostitution, homosexuality, etc., caused particular rejection. In this regard, in Muslim countries they paid attention to the fact that Islam by the very fact of its existence saves human society from degradation, and modern civilization from disintegration and destruction. Islam, as it is believed, built the world on a new basis, cleared the faith and morality, gave a new content. The purpose of Islam is to lead the "caravan of life" of all mankind based on true noble values, faith, fraternity and justice.
In Muslim countries, there were different types of government, but among many representatives of Islamic society, it was believed that the state should coexist in the form of a caliphate - a theocratic state. Its head is a caliph combining the functions of a spiritual and secular leader, acting on the basis of Islamic norms and rules.
Among the migrants arriving in Europe, a significant part shares similar views. Another feature is that, according to the ideology of radical Islamists, which also turned out to be quite a lot among the refugees who arrived in Europe, the entire population of the Earth is divided into three categories: "faithful" ie the Muslims, the “nations of the Book” —the Jews and Christians, and also the “infidels” —all the rest. Muslims on this list have the right to offer the other two categories to voluntarily convert to Islam or submit to the authority of the "faithful." The separating views of Islamic extremists consider it possible to wage jihad - an armed struggle against infidels.
Representatives of Muslim communities living in Europe for a long time, as a rule, do not share such radical views, but retain and protect their religious identity. However, recently arrived and arriving on the continent migrants are increasingly trying to impose their religious and ideological views on the European population, including in a rather aggressive form.
Practical actions of Muslims in this direction began to be noted in a number of countries. Thus, in Germany, an action was organized called “Read” (fig. 5). Its organizers tried to spread 25 million copies of the Koran on the streets in order to convert the Germans to the "true faith." In the city of Wuppertal, the Shari'a police began to act, patrolling the recreation areas of the local population. There were explanatory conversations with visitors of bars and casinos, so that they would refuse alcohol, tobacco and convert to Islam. Girls and women were advised not to wear short dresses and skirts, agitating them to wear niqabs - a Muslim women's headdress that covers the face, with a narrow slit for the eyes. In schools that are attended by Muslim children, Islamic activists demand that all pork dishes be removed from the school canteen menu.
In Denmark, a group of young people from among Muslim migrants staged a riot in the city of Nerrebro. They announced its inclusion in the territory of Sharia, where it is forbidden to drink alcohol, and began to attack the local pubs. Their windows were broken with stones and bicycles, the locals were subjected to insults. Views on the change of a European society based on Islam as they understand it spread among a number of migrants. There are calls for the creation of a European caliphate.
Of course, the EU population, numbering about 500 million, will protect its European identity and lifestyle. Talking about the erosion of Christianity by Islam is premature. Several million Muslim migrants (according to various estimates, their total number can reach 6-8 million) will not change the religious map of Europe, where the majority of the population belongs to Christians. However, for Europeans, accustomed to their local “moderate Islam”, the aggressive actions of migrants to impose their vision and place in society turned out to be a big surprise, which changed their attitude towards Islam as a whole.
The Institute of New Social Answers conducted a survey in Germany, the purpose of which was to clarify the attitude of the Germans to Islam as an integral part of German values. Its results showed that 60,3% of respondents do not consider Islam as part of Germany, and 46,1% of respondents said they fear Islamization of the country. Similar sentiments are noted in other European countries, previously proud of their tolerance, including on religious issues. A number of politicians from the countries of the European Union began to declare that Christian and Muslim worlds are not capable of getting along on the same territory.
Only the leadership of Germany continues to adhere to its previous policy. Chancellor A. Merkel in one of her speeches clearly stated that "Islam is undoubtedly part of Germany." However, such statements did not cause approval of a significant part of the country's population, which was manifested in the emergence of the Pegida movement (“Patriotic Europeans against the Islamization of the Old World”) (Fig. 6) and the Alternative for Germany party, which does not consider Islam to be part of Germany. There has been an increase in the popularity of similar parties and movements in other European countries, which in the future may lead to a change in the political spectrum of the ruling elites, among whom anti-Islamic sentiments will prevail.
Meanwhile, Muslim migrants are arriving and will continue on various routes to arrive in Europe. There is a tendency of their settlement in large cities and the creation of their own areas of compact residence, living under Islamic laws and rules. As current practice shows, city authorities do not seek to interfere in the internal affairs of life of such enclaves, unless the rule of law is clearly violated there. As the Muslim population increases in the cities, their representatives will take part in various administrative structures and bodies of local self-government. The first precedent of this kind was noted in London, where in May the candidate from the Labor Party, S. Khan, a Muslim by religion, became mayor of the city as a result of the elections.
Living in these areas will not meet European lifestyle standards. Mosques, loudly broadcast calls for prayers (Fig. 7), women with closed faces, the lack of entertainment facilities, food prepared on the basis of Islamic standards, the widespread introduction of civil law aspects of Sharia - all this will change the appearance, style and content of life in many areas European cities. Changes in the business climate and the functioning of the banking system are possible. Islamic banks operate on a different principle than traditionally European ones. Sharia condemns speculative income and interest loans, so participants in any transaction combine capital and labor, and profit is divided under a separate agreement.
At the same time, although all these aspects are unusual for most Europeans and difficult to accept for the public consciousness of the Old World, they are generally positive. With strict adherence to Muslim norms and rules, the level of crime decreases, morality and morality improves, pessimism and despondency decrease. For employers, the Muslim labor contingent does not create any problems, it is notable for good faith and high discipline.
At the same time, the massive emergence in Europe of migrants, immigrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, where numerous terrorist organizations operate, creates new large-scale threats to the security of the countries of the continent. We are talking about the emergence in Europe of supporters of armed jihad, ready to carry out the most brutal terrorist acts. They believe that they are participating in a “holy struggle” with infidels who live in Christian Europe.
Most of them are sent to the continent by the most dangerous grouping “Islamic State” currently operating in Syria and Iraq. According to data available from European intelligence services, in a number of countries there are already groups of IG terrorists with 3-4 numbers per person (their total number can reach up to 400-600 fighters) ready to carry out attacks on various targets (Fig. 8). Most of them have combat experience, they are set to conduct suicidal attacks that cause the greatest losses. Under the influence of Islamic State propaganda, any European Muslim who has long been living on the continent who has come under its influence can become a terrorist. They are most difficult to identify, as they have no links with extremist groups.
According to the Federal Criminal Investigation Office of Germany, the number of potentially dangerous individuals, the number of Islamists, has almost doubled compared to the 2015 year. An 497 person with radical Islamic views identified as a potential threat has been identified. Another 339 Islamists sympathize with terrorists and can become their assistants. The stadiums and crowds of fans at the European Football Championships in France, flights of civilian airlines, beaches in southern Europe, as well as critical important infrastructure are at risk (Fig. 10).
IG emissaries recruit new terrorists on the continent, prepare caches for their shelter, accumulate weapon and ammunition. Another dangerous activity of the IG is the desire to provoke a sharp increase in anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe in order to increase the number of people who want to join the ranks of militants and terrorists. The leadership of the Islamic State hopes that frequent terrorist attacks will provoke a strong reaction from European governments and the public against all Muslims living in the region, which should lead to the alienation and radicalization of Muslim communities throughout the continent.
Thus, the migration crisis has already created many problems for Europe, which under its influence will undoubtedly change. The imposition of an Islamic factor on him will affect the ethno-religious balance that has developed on the continent with long-term consequences. The inconsistencies of cultures and lifestyles of Christians and Muslims, the growth trend of the Muslim population, the impossibility of full integration of refugees will affect the change of European identity. The greatest danger will be the growth of terrorist threats from Islamic militants and local Islamist fanatics who have fallen under the influence of jihadist propaganda.
The mass arrival of migrants to the continent increases tensions between EU members, threatens the socio-economic development of those countries where refugees mostly fall. Another important direction of the impact of the migration crisis is the new "attack" of Islam in Europe. Thus, it is estimated that more than 80% of refugees are Muslims, which greatly increases the influence of the local Islamic diasporas.
Some experts have already compared the current migration crisis with the invasion of the Saracens, when in the VII-VIII centuries Muslims conquered the Mediterranean, landed on the Iberian Peninsula and began to move north. The expansion of the Omeyad Caliphate was stopped in 732 by the Battle of Poitiers (Fig.1), in which the combined forces of the Franks defeated the Umayyad army. Many Western historians and writers believe that this victory prevented the conquest of Europe by Islam and saved Christianity on the continent.
Repeated attempts of Muslims to penetrate into Europe by armed means were noted from the 8th to the 10th centuries, and then from the 14th to the 18th centuries, which in Western historiography was viewed as a duel of the cross and crescent, although they had more geopolitical rather than religious reasons. In turn, under the pretext of protecting the Christian church, the Vatican and the European aristocracy carried out a series of crusades in the Middle East. Jerusalem and the Holy Land were freed from the Muslims, although they later came under their control again. These wars were accompanied by anti-Islamic propaganda. Religion of Muslims was presented to Europe as faith unrighteous and evil, and the Saracens were the "servants of the devil", which had a tangible impact on European public opinion of the time.
Even today, many in Europe are still poorly informed about the religious, everyday, and cultural characteristics of the Islamic world. Muslims arriving in Europe to avoid death in areas of armed conflict, in search of work and better living conditions, have their own religious identity and identity. The experience of the first and second wave migrants who came from the countries of the Arab Maghreb and Turkey showed that there was no integration of Muslims into the European community. The assimilation policy yielded results only in the field of foreign language proficiency, but this did not happen in the religious and related cultural and everyday spheres.
The current wave of refugees from the Near, Middle East and North Africa exceeds the previous scale. The plans of Brussels to integrate them into European society in modern conditions are simply unreal. 2015 million refugees, most of whom are Muslims, arrived in Europe in 1,8 year. In 2016, their number may increase further. Currently, according to the Pew research center, the number of Muslims in Europe reaches 44 million, within the European Union - 19 million.
In the EU, Germany and France have the highest rates, each of which has approximately 4,7 million Muslims. In the UK, there are about 2.9 million. In relation to the number of Muslims living in the total population, the highest rates in France are 7.5% of the population. In the Netherlands, the Muslim population is 6%, in Belgium - 5,9%, in Germany - 5,8%, in the UK 5,8%. In Paris and its suburbs, there are more Muslims than in any other European city - about 1,7 million.
In addition to the increase in Muslims in Europe due to migration, their number is also growing due to the natural increase in the population of countries inhabited by people of Islamic faith. They have more children than their parents - Christians (Fig. 2). For example, in the European Union, the birth rate among the indigenous white population is on average 1,38 a child per family. In France, this figure is for Christians 1,8, while for the Islamic population it is 8,1 child per family. This trend is actively promoted by Muslim preachers. So, the imam in one of the mosques during the sermons urged the parishioners to have as many children as possible. Similar views are shared by the majority of migrants who have arrived in Europe, who seek in this way to avoid deportation and receive maximum social benefits for children.
According to European experts, while maintaining even the current population growth rates after about 35 years, France will become an Islamic republic. In the south of the country, historically one of the most densely populated Christian areas of the world, there are currently more mosques operating than Christian churches.
A similar situation is noted in the UK. For a relatively short period, the Muslim population there increased from 80 thousand to 3 million people - in 36 times. There are more than 1000 mosques in the country, many of which were formerly Christian churches. In Holland, 50 percent of all newborns are from Muslim parents. According to local estimates, already in 12 years, half of the population of this country will be Muslim. In Belgium, 50 percent of newborns and 25 percent of the total population are currently Muslim.
It should be noted that Islam is one of the major world religions and by the number of its followers (about 1,5 billion people, approximately 27,7% of the population of the Earth). Islam played a significant role in stories human civilization. Islamic history, culture and philosophical and literary heritage is remarkable for its extraordinary wealth, depth and diversity. Their achievements, especially in the field of theology and philosophy, are recognized in many countries of the world, where representatives of other religious denominations live.
No other world religion attracts such attention as Islam today. Some experts refer Islam to one of the most dynamic and viable religions of our time. In no other religion, there is no such percentage of believers passionately and selflessly devoted to Islam who sincerely fulfill all the provisions of Muslim dogma and religious rules.
One of the important features of Islam is that for its followers it is not just a system of faith and worship (Fig.3), but also a way of life, and its norms include domestic rules and elements of civil, criminal and even constitutional law. Islam has historically been and remains the main ideological basis of the culture and social structure of Muslim countries and regions, permeating all spheres of their life. In each of these countries, Islam has its own characteristics and specifics, however, in general, these differences are insignificant (they mainly concern theology issues) compared with the unity of general ideas, customs, and customs, which created the common religious basis of Muslims.
This was facilitated by the fact that in everyday life, the moral, ritual and cult forms of Islam are actually absorbed with mother’s milk in many countries for a long time, or rather forever, and form a particular Muslim human psychology. Therefore, it can be said that, despite all the specifics of specific countries of the Islamic world, a Muslim born in his environment will always remain a Muslim in any other conditions. Due to this, for more than 1,5 billion Muslims in different languages Islam is not only a common religion, but also a social and political force that contributes to the formation of a certain way of life, a common culture of worldview, no matter where they are and live.
Islam is an Arabic word meaning “submission”, “obedience”, “worship” (the one god is Allah), and his followers are called Muslims, from the Arabic word “muslim”, i.e. humble, loyal. An important element in Islam is Sharia - a system of religious laws governing the norms of morality and ethics, Muslim rites and holidays, economic and other aspects of life. It contains a list of prohibitions allowed and denied actions. Sharia and its laws actually cover the entire vital activity of every Muslim.
Moral norms that Muslims must follow are quite diverse (Figure 4). They include, in particular, truthfulness, sincerity, the expulsion of anger, hatred, envy and other vices from the heart, modesty, the search for wisdom and knowledge, the desire to devote all your time and your life to good deeds, aversion to evil and sin, etc. Muslims must refrain from acts that could corrupt and destroy a person. Adherents of Islam should avoid anything that could harm the body and soul: food forbidden to Muslims (pork), alcohol, tobacco, drugs, and gambling.
A Muslim man is obliged to take care of the maintenance of the family, he can marry up to four women at a time. Extramarital affair is strictly prohibited. Unaccompanied women are not allowed to go to cinemas and other public places, including cafes and restaurants. Certain restrictions are imposed on the appearance of women at home and on the streets.
In the countries of the Islamic world, the Western way of life, which was considered immoral from the point of view of traditional Muslim morality, was traditionally negative. The prevalence of alcoholism in the West, drug use, prostitution, homosexuality, etc., caused particular rejection. In this regard, in Muslim countries they paid attention to the fact that Islam by the very fact of its existence saves human society from degradation, and modern civilization from disintegration and destruction. Islam, as it is believed, built the world on a new basis, cleared the faith and morality, gave a new content. The purpose of Islam is to lead the "caravan of life" of all mankind based on true noble values, faith, fraternity and justice.
In Muslim countries, there were different types of government, but among many representatives of Islamic society, it was believed that the state should coexist in the form of a caliphate - a theocratic state. Its head is a caliph combining the functions of a spiritual and secular leader, acting on the basis of Islamic norms and rules.
Among the migrants arriving in Europe, a significant part shares similar views. Another feature is that, according to the ideology of radical Islamists, which also turned out to be quite a lot among the refugees who arrived in Europe, the entire population of the Earth is divided into three categories: "faithful" ie the Muslims, the “nations of the Book” —the Jews and Christians, and also the “infidels” —all the rest. Muslims on this list have the right to offer the other two categories to voluntarily convert to Islam or submit to the authority of the "faithful." The separating views of Islamic extremists consider it possible to wage jihad - an armed struggle against infidels.
Representatives of Muslim communities living in Europe for a long time, as a rule, do not share such radical views, but retain and protect their religious identity. However, recently arrived and arriving on the continent migrants are increasingly trying to impose their religious and ideological views on the European population, including in a rather aggressive form.
Practical actions of Muslims in this direction began to be noted in a number of countries. Thus, in Germany, an action was organized called “Read” (fig. 5). Its organizers tried to spread 25 million copies of the Koran on the streets in order to convert the Germans to the "true faith." In the city of Wuppertal, the Shari'a police began to act, patrolling the recreation areas of the local population. There were explanatory conversations with visitors of bars and casinos, so that they would refuse alcohol, tobacco and convert to Islam. Girls and women were advised not to wear short dresses and skirts, agitating them to wear niqabs - a Muslim women's headdress that covers the face, with a narrow slit for the eyes. In schools that are attended by Muslim children, Islamic activists demand that all pork dishes be removed from the school canteen menu.
In Denmark, a group of young people from among Muslim migrants staged a riot in the city of Nerrebro. They announced its inclusion in the territory of Sharia, where it is forbidden to drink alcohol, and began to attack the local pubs. Their windows were broken with stones and bicycles, the locals were subjected to insults. Views on the change of a European society based on Islam as they understand it spread among a number of migrants. There are calls for the creation of a European caliphate.
Of course, the EU population, numbering about 500 million, will protect its European identity and lifestyle. Talking about the erosion of Christianity by Islam is premature. Several million Muslim migrants (according to various estimates, their total number can reach 6-8 million) will not change the religious map of Europe, where the majority of the population belongs to Christians. However, for Europeans, accustomed to their local “moderate Islam”, the aggressive actions of migrants to impose their vision and place in society turned out to be a big surprise, which changed their attitude towards Islam as a whole.
The Institute of New Social Answers conducted a survey in Germany, the purpose of which was to clarify the attitude of the Germans to Islam as an integral part of German values. Its results showed that 60,3% of respondents do not consider Islam as part of Germany, and 46,1% of respondents said they fear Islamization of the country. Similar sentiments are noted in other European countries, previously proud of their tolerance, including on religious issues. A number of politicians from the countries of the European Union began to declare that Christian and Muslim worlds are not capable of getting along on the same territory.
Only the leadership of Germany continues to adhere to its previous policy. Chancellor A. Merkel in one of her speeches clearly stated that "Islam is undoubtedly part of Germany." However, such statements did not cause approval of a significant part of the country's population, which was manifested in the emergence of the Pegida movement (“Patriotic Europeans against the Islamization of the Old World”) (Fig. 6) and the Alternative for Germany party, which does not consider Islam to be part of Germany. There has been an increase in the popularity of similar parties and movements in other European countries, which in the future may lead to a change in the political spectrum of the ruling elites, among whom anti-Islamic sentiments will prevail.
Meanwhile, Muslim migrants are arriving and will continue on various routes to arrive in Europe. There is a tendency of their settlement in large cities and the creation of their own areas of compact residence, living under Islamic laws and rules. As current practice shows, city authorities do not seek to interfere in the internal affairs of life of such enclaves, unless the rule of law is clearly violated there. As the Muslim population increases in the cities, their representatives will take part in various administrative structures and bodies of local self-government. The first precedent of this kind was noted in London, where in May the candidate from the Labor Party, S. Khan, a Muslim by religion, became mayor of the city as a result of the elections.
Living in these areas will not meet European lifestyle standards. Mosques, loudly broadcast calls for prayers (Fig. 7), women with closed faces, the lack of entertainment facilities, food prepared on the basis of Islamic standards, the widespread introduction of civil law aspects of Sharia - all this will change the appearance, style and content of life in many areas European cities. Changes in the business climate and the functioning of the banking system are possible. Islamic banks operate on a different principle than traditionally European ones. Sharia condemns speculative income and interest loans, so participants in any transaction combine capital and labor, and profit is divided under a separate agreement.
At the same time, although all these aspects are unusual for most Europeans and difficult to accept for the public consciousness of the Old World, they are generally positive. With strict adherence to Muslim norms and rules, the level of crime decreases, morality and morality improves, pessimism and despondency decrease. For employers, the Muslim labor contingent does not create any problems, it is notable for good faith and high discipline.
At the same time, the massive emergence in Europe of migrants, immigrants from the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, where numerous terrorist organizations operate, creates new large-scale threats to the security of the countries of the continent. We are talking about the emergence in Europe of supporters of armed jihad, ready to carry out the most brutal terrorist acts. They believe that they are participating in a “holy struggle” with infidels who live in Christian Europe.
Most of them are sent to the continent by the most dangerous grouping “Islamic State” currently operating in Syria and Iraq. According to data available from European intelligence services, in a number of countries there are already groups of IG terrorists with 3-4 numbers per person (their total number can reach up to 400-600 fighters) ready to carry out attacks on various targets (Fig. 8). Most of them have combat experience, they are set to conduct suicidal attacks that cause the greatest losses. Under the influence of Islamic State propaganda, any European Muslim who has long been living on the continent who has come under its influence can become a terrorist. They are most difficult to identify, as they have no links with extremist groups.
According to the Federal Criminal Investigation Office of Germany, the number of potentially dangerous individuals, the number of Islamists, has almost doubled compared to the 2015 year. An 497 person with radical Islamic views identified as a potential threat has been identified. Another 339 Islamists sympathize with terrorists and can become their assistants. The stadiums and crowds of fans at the European Football Championships in France, flights of civilian airlines, beaches in southern Europe, as well as critical important infrastructure are at risk (Fig. 10).
IG emissaries recruit new terrorists on the continent, prepare caches for their shelter, accumulate weapon and ammunition. Another dangerous activity of the IG is the desire to provoke a sharp increase in anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe in order to increase the number of people who want to join the ranks of militants and terrorists. The leadership of the Islamic State hopes that frequent terrorist attacks will provoke a strong reaction from European governments and the public against all Muslims living in the region, which should lead to the alienation and radicalization of Muslim communities throughout the continent.
Thus, the migration crisis has already created many problems for Europe, which under its influence will undoubtedly change. The imposition of an Islamic factor on him will affect the ethno-religious balance that has developed on the continent with long-term consequences. The inconsistencies of cultures and lifestyles of Christians and Muslims, the growth trend of the Muslim population, the impossibility of full integration of refugees will affect the change of European identity. The greatest danger will be the growth of terrorist threats from Islamic militants and local Islamist fanatics who have fallen under the influence of jihadist propaganda.
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