The situation on the Korean Peninsula has a clear tendency to exacerbation. At the same time, both Pyongyang and Seoul set the unification of the country, which was artificially divided in 1945, as the most important task of its policy.
“There is a conspiracy of Washington and Beijing to overthrow the regime in Pyongyang through its economic collapse”
Why 71 a year ago, Moscow went to the division of Korea, although it could easily take it entirely, is not entirely clear. It would be more logical to dismember Japan (following the example of Germany). Why did nobody divide China, Burma, the Philippines and other territories liberated from the Japanese? Why is Korea so unlucky? As a result, we have a divided nation, the two halves of which, on the one hand, look at each other as mortal enemies, on the other, they dream of unification.
The state of the armed forces of two Korean states is known (“MIC”, №№ 18 – 19, 2016). From a military point of view, they are in a state of strategic stalemate - neither side can capture the other.
The entire responsibility for permanent tension on the Korean Peninsula is taken to be placed on Pyongyang, in this regard there is in fact a worldwide consensus, which is embodied in regular resolutions of the UN Security Council with regular portions of sanctions against the DPRK. There is a feeling that this policy is completely counterproductive.
Regarding the endless sanctions in response to the implementation of the North Korean nuclear missile program, Pyongyang rightly points to double standards in the position of the world community. For example, 30 January 2013, the Republic of Korea repeated the success of the northerners, going into space with a satellite launched with the help of the KSLV rocket (the first stage was made in Russia). For some reason, no one thought to impose sanctions against Seoul, or even just to condemn him. What is right - every country has the right to space launches. But it is each, regardless of whether it is southern or northern. Yes, the production technology of launch vehicles and intercontinental ballistic are closely related (although not identical). But double standards should not be.
The same applies to the possession of nuclear weapons. It’s impossible to keep secret the 70 technology. However, for some reason, only five countries (permanent members of the Security Council) were allowed to have it. This is a double standard. But then it became even worse: it turned out that the principle “who dared, he ate” can be successfully implemented. This was done (except for the voluntarily disarmed South Africa) Israel, India and Pakistan. And they had absolutely nothing for it. On the contrary, their international status and, what is extremely important, military security have increased. The possibility of aggression against any of them has dropped to almost zero. Why is the DPRK not entitled to replenish this company? Already it turns out not double, but a triple standard. Even if we drag by the ears of the argument that Israel and India are democratic countries, no one will dare deny the mortal danger to all mankind of the nuclear-missile arsenal of Pakistan. But for some reason no one is stifling Islamabad with sanctions, on the contrary, he is being courted in every possible way, giving a lot of money and weapons. At the same time, all of these “new” nuclear countries are developing missile programs (in particular, New Delhi is building an ICBM with a nuclear warhead), Israel and India are launching satellites, but no one is introducing sanctions against them or even does not require it.
A statement from the DPRK Foreign Ministry on February 12 of 2013 says: “In stories The UN, which is more than 60 years old, has carried out more than two thousand nuclear tests and nine thousand satellite launches around the world, but UN Security Council resolutions banning nuclear tests or space launches have never been adopted. ” There is nothing to argue. Unfair punishment is caused not by the desire to improve, but by bitterness, which actually happens.
The North Korean "Juche" ("self-reliance") and the "Songun" ("army priority") were turned into a caricature by the efforts of Western and South Korean propaganda, which to a certain extent is due to the very peculiar style of presentation of these ideas by the North Koreans themselves. Meanwhile, if the concepts are freed from the communist ideology (which is actually very easy), then they are completely normal and absolutely justified: if a country wants to pursue a sovereign domestic and foreign policy, it is impossible to manage without Juche and Songun. Much of humanity has forgotten about this, deciding to give up independence. This is their choice, but no one can deny the DPRK the right to its own way.
The feeling that the country is being punished for this choice is growing ever stronger: small to be independent. For domestic policy of Pyongyang, no one is going to punish. Moreover, in order not to fall into the next double standard, for violation of the rights of its own citizens it is necessary to punish, for example, all the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, first of all, super-totalitarian Saudi Arabia. Sanctions should be imposed against them, in particular, to forbid them to sell oil and gas, to buy weapons and luxury items. But for some reason nobody offers this.
Pyongyang’s independence becomes categorically unacceptable not only for Washington (no comment is needed here), but also for Beijing, to whom North Korea is interesting only as a buffer and dumb puppet. Therefore, over the past years, relations between China and the DPRK are rapidly deteriorating. Beijing almost openly forms on its territory "alternative" authorities and the army of North Korea from defectors from this country. In fact, there is now a collusion between Washington and Beijing to overthrow the regime in Pyongyang through its economic collapse. Therefore, the draft last resolution of the UN Security Council with a sharp tightening of sanctions against the DPRK (adopted on March 2), they developed together. At the same time, both Washington and Beijing hope after this to put North Korea under their complete control. That is, after the overthrow of Kim Jong-un, the interests of the United States and the People's Republic of China will become opposite, but until that moment they coincide.
Russia is categorically not interested in such a development of events, but she was not ready to single-handedly veto the UN Security Council resolution on sanctions against the DPRK (although it tried to delay its adoption). Perhaps this is the biggest foreign policy mistake of Moscow in recent years. It was doubly unacceptable to vote for this resolution because Russia itself is under illegal sanctions. And constantly says that they are generally counterproductive. With regard to the Korean problem, this is completely true, but for some reason in this case we forget about our own statements.
However, Seoul is making a much bigger mistake than Moscow.
It is necessary to once again recall the unique specificity of the inter-Korean conflict - irreconcilable enemies set unification as the main political goal. And this requires from both sides approaches that are fundamentally different from the behavior of participants in other conflicts. For example, Armenia and Azerbaijan were part of the same country for a very long time, but in the future they are not going to unite. Therefore, the cultivation of mutual hatred by them, although not very useful, is not at all disastrous. But Pyongyang and Seoul can not behave this way. Forcing hate moves them away from the main goal.
Of course, the militant rhetoric of Pyongyang - up to the announcement of a preventive nuclear strike - is completely unacceptable. The DPRK leadership must declare that under no circumstances will it be the first to use not only nuclear but also conventional weapons, and all its military power is created solely for self-defense. But it is also necessary to understand that Pyongyang is seriously afraid of American aggression, especially since there are some very recent examples before it. It can be said that the DPRK's nuclear program was born in Serbia and Iraq. North Korea has the right not to want to share the fate of these countries.
Almost no one outside the Korean Peninsula knows that as far back as 70, under Kim Il Sung, the totalitarian DPRK proposed a completely democratic principle of uniting the country - on a confederal basis, preserving in both parts of the political and economic systems and with annual rotation of top management . Of course, this path is very complicated, but there is simply no other option. And so far Pyongyang has not refused it. At the last TPK congress in May, Kim Jong-un again said that the DPRK is striving for peaceful unification of Korea while preserving in each of the parts of the current systems and only if aggression is committed against the country, does Pyongyang implement the military option of unification. Interestingly, absolutely all world media quoted the second part of this statement, but the overwhelming majority "did not notice" the first.
Alas, but the Democratic Republic of Korea still wants a purely totalitarian version of integration - a complete takeover of the DPRK, and in a much more rigid variant than with the unification of Germany, with repression against the entire military-political leadership of the North. This approach, of course, makes unification impossible. The trouble is that Seoul is not playing its own game.
Perhaps, in the XX – XXI centuries, there is no more impressive “success story” in the world than that demonstrated by South Korea. She spent the first half of the twentieth century in the role of a powerless impoverished Japanese colony, and in 1950 – 1951 she was completely destroyed during the war. The standard of living here in 60 was the same as in the countries of tropical Africa. Now the South Korean economy is among the largest 15 in the world, according to nominal GDP in 2015, it seems to have bypassed Russia. And at the heart of success are not financial soap bubbles and not the service sector, as in the West, but the most powerful modern high-tech industry, which makes the country much more resistant to various crises. In addition, beautiful sun. In terms of combat potential and the level of training of personnel, they are at least among the three strongest in the world among non-nuclear-weapon countries. The South Korean army is two heads stronger than any European. In such a situation, the inability to pursue an independent foreign policy looks like an absolute anomaly. However, the behavior of Seoul is sent from Washington. 30 – 40 years ago it was understandable, explicable and even rational. Today is completely unacceptable, although, unfortunately, explainable. The basis of this phenomenon are purely psychological reasons. Southerners simply cannot believe in their own strengths and capabilities, and the Americans are doing everything to ensure that this never happens. At the same time, it is pointless to make claims to the USA - they act in accordance with their ideological attitudes and geopolitical interests. Washington should uphold American interests, not Korean interests. But Seoul is obliged to protect their own, not strangers.
It’s time for the people and authorities of the Republic of Korea to realize that it’s better to release another thousand instead of the next million smartphones for export tanks for myself. And maybe create your own nuclear weapons. Then start talking with Pyongyang on an equal footing, without fear and without arrogance. If the goal is really to unite the country with its future transformation into a great power, it is necessary to accept the North Korean version of unification, no matter how complex and time-consuming it may be. Moreover, then convergence will still occur and South Korean economic superiority will play the main role. If Seoul continues to wait until the regime in Pyongyang collapses or surrenders voluntarily, they will receive one of two. Either North Korea will become a puppet, if not a colony of China, or the two countries will mentally disperse so much that their peoples simply do not want to unite.
The Republic of Korea urgently needs the Juche and Songun ideas. They absolutely do not have to be communist. Only on their basis will it be possible to build a single great country.