Military Review

Turkey is not lucky with the Sultan

The media write that Erdogan allegedly "put Europe in the position." They also write that the neosultan turned to NATO for military support in order to prevent the transformation of the Black Sea into a “Russian lake”. All these loud statements by the Turkish president, of course, bravado. Speaking of external, Erdogan hides the internal. Turkey has a bad business: its economy has cracked and begins to fall apart.

Turkey is not lucky with the Sultan

Apparently, fearing alone “pushing” the Russians on the Black Sea, the Turkish neosultan decided to resort to the help of NATO.

At a meeting of chiefs of staff of the Balkan states, Recep Tayyip Erdogan called on the North Atlantic Alliance to strengthen its presence in the Black Sea. Otherwise, it can turn into a “Russian lake”.

Sultan explained to the somewhat puzzled assembled that this topic was not really new, it had previously been discussed by him (Erdogan) with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg. Sultan explained to him that NATO seemed not to exist in the Black Sea, and therefore it "became a Russian lake." Erdogan urged NATO to "take action", otherwise "история we will not forgive this. "

Do we really add that Erdogan really counts on the “historical” help of NATO? Stoltenberg will not defend Turkey’s ghostly interests in the Black Sea at all, risking embroiling the alliance into a confrontation with Russia. The ambitious and self-righteous Erdogan has already spoiled relations not only with Russia, but also with the West, constantly blackmailing Europe with refugee flows and demanding money. The press writes that the sultan, who “almost achieved” visa-free entry to the EU for the Turks, “put Europe in a position”. However, is this really the case?

The angry sultan really put forward an ultimatum to the EU, which he has to formally abide by.

On Wednesday last week, European experts began to legislate a visa-free regime for the EU with Turkey. The abolition of visas is part of the March Agreement on Refugees concluded between Ankara and Brussels.

The European Union simply pays for Turkey, which is frankly blackmailing it with refugees, said Vladimir Sazhin, an expert at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. “Turkish President Recep Erdogan had the opportunity to speak with the European Union from a position of strength, because he holds the key from hundreds of thousands of refugees not only from Syria, but also from other countries, right up to Afghanistan. And Erdogan gladly used the trump card that fell into his hands from the sky, ”said Sazhin Reedus.

Ankara was unable to enter the EU through the front door, and now it puts Europe in a known position. “Ankara is now literally praying that the conflict in the Middle East, Allah, may not stop, before the EU agrees on all the paper procedures necessary to remove the border formalities for Turkish citizens,” the expert said.

And nevertheless, the beginning of formal procedures is not a reason for a holiday.

On the same Wednesday, the European Parliament suspended the discussion of the dossier on granting Turkey a visa-free regime, since Ankara should first comply with all EU requirements without exception.

In addition, the decision on a visa-free regime for Turkey in the European Union will be taken together. Everyone remembers the Netherlands’s recent objection to the relevant Ukrainian issue.

In the German newspaper «Die Welt» An article with a remarkable headline “Das ist die große Schwäche des“ Königs von Europa ”by Nando Sommerfeldt and Holger Shepetz (Nando Sommerfeldt, Holger Zschäpitz) was published. We are talking about the "big hole" for the "King of Europe".

Erdogan may now seem invulnerable, but this is not so: Turkey has a big economic problem. Well, yes, Angela Merkel is at the mercy of the Turkish president on the issue of refugees, and the European Union may be forced to grant him visa-free travel for all Turks. Prime Minister Davutoglu, who, at least in part, did not agree with Erdogan, freed the post. Erdogan does not tremble even before Putin - “like everyone else.” So what, was the "new king of Europe"?

Nothing like this! In the midst of his political triumph, Erdogan may fail. Turkey’s true weakness is that its economy is vulnerable, say the authors.

Turkey is very dependent on a constant inflow of foreign currency, because it needs significant energy supplies, as well as other foreign products. One of the stable sources of obtaining currency, as well as employment in the country, was formerly tourism. Yes, it is only six percent of the gross domestic product, but it provides jobs for more than eight percent of the Turks and is an important source of foreign currency. And here Erdogan “broke off abruptly,” journalists write.

The prosperity of tourism has been hindered by the growing threat of terrorism and the policy of too high Erdogan. The number of foreign tourists is decreasing considerably every month. In March, tourists were almost 13% less than in the same month a year ago. The reduction of their number is the eighth month in a row. There has been a sharp drop in the number of tourists in almost ten years.

The main reason is the boycott of tourism to Turkey in the two most important countries for Ankara, namely Russia and Germany. Germans and Russians made the most of the profits in this industry. The Russians and Germans, in essence, made a holiday in a Turkish street. Now it's over. In March of this year, all 24.000 guests came from Russia; compared with the previous year, the reduction was 60 percent!

After the Russian plane was shot down by Turkish forces at the end of November last year, the Kremlin immediately imposed sanctions against Turkey, and the Foreign Ministry then issued a special warning to travelers. Soon after, Russian travel agencies stopped offering tours to Turkey. And charter flights to the Turkish coast of the Mediterranean were also canceled.

The Germans (about 5,5 million trips to Turkey last year) are now skeptical about the idea of ​​visiting the Turks. They find this country unsafe and are waiting for political tensions, violent clashes, and terrorist acts. German tour operators have shifted to other countries.

Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets at the Japanese bank Nomura, notes that financial markets look very closely at the number of tourists, since tourism is one of the main sectors of the Turkish economy.

The decline in tourism beats on airlines. The state airline Turkish Airlines reported last week about the biggest quarterly loss since 1999 of the year. One of the main reasons for reducing losses is the low utilization rate of aircraft: the average load factor fell below 75%. And, probably, it will only get worse as the airline has planned to expand its capacity earlier this summer (by 14%).

The tourism index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange has lost six percent in value terms since mid-April.

The unexpected resignation of Prime Minister Davutoglu also shook the markets. Turkish lira lost over 5,5% of its value in May against the dollar in May, while the euro lost five percent against the euro.

Analysts of the American investment bank JP Morgan are already talking about a reduction in investment in Turkey due to political risks. Experts recommend that global investors free their portfolios from Turkish investments.

The World Bank recently gave a negative assessment of the growth prospects of Turkey - precisely because of failures in the tourism industry.

Finally, Turkey today turned out to be one of the few countries in the world in which currency reserves fell below a critical level (according to the IMF methodology).

“Therefore, the big question is how long Erdogan can afford a big show,” the correspondents conclude.

* * *

R.T. Erdogan, by the way, has a certain number of political opponents. It cannot be said that “neosultan” has absolute power in the country. Before rewriting the Turkish constitution, oh, how far.

Empty hotels will not add to the popularity of Erdogan and among the people.

Sooner or later, a “spring” will break out in Turkey, supported by the European Union, as a result of which an Islamist, inclined to sultanism and prone to delusions of grandeur, will be deposed. Brussels, which is not configured to provide the Turks with a visa-free regime, would have a good spring. Yes, and the United States would support it: they are tired of the unpredictable "Sultan".

As for Erdogan’s insane statements about the “Russian lake” and the “help” of NATO, the president’s hopes did not come true. From this frenzy shy already in NATO.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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  1. Shiva83483
    Shiva83483 17 May 2016 06: 43
    Have you ordered a greasy furry northern animal Sultanik? NO!!!!!!!? And Yong Uzo jumped up, what will the murdered murderer do?
    1. Seren
      Seren 17 May 2016 07: 06
      Every nation has the ruler that it deserves. And Turkey and Perdogan only once again confirm this truth. The Turkish people chose to end the path of modernization, and for many years they have been undermining and choosing the inveterate Islamists for both the presidency and parliament. So the Turks honestly earned their current situation. For that fought for it and ran )))
      1. Aryan
        Aryan 17 May 2016 23: 26
        Erdogan is not a friend of his country! negative
  2. Dr. Barmaley
    Dr. Barmaley 17 May 2016 07: 04
    Sooner or later, “spring” will break out in Turkey, supported by the European Union, as a result of which an Islamist who gravitates towards Sultanism and is prone to megalomania will be deposed.
  3. alex-cn
    alex-cn 17 May 2016 07: 08
    It looks like it's bad, the Kurds have already shot down 2 helicopters ... it looks like an "arrow", we will assume that those that were plundered in Libya have surfaced. So he already has one serious and battle-hardened opponent. We must think there will be more.
    1. donavi49
      donavi49 17 May 2016 09: 44
      The second one was shot down by black back in 2007. There, the Iraqi chinook, just in the wake of hype, the Kurdish couch army blinded from the old new.

      Fresh movie


      But they delivered the Turkish GPs not bad, almost at the level of the Husits.
      1. Kasym
        Kasym 17 May 2016 23: 35
        1. Nevertheless, the Kurds have recently distinguished themselves quite well. 3 SPGs, Cobra and GP. Where did they get ATGMs and Needles? Who helped and gave the go-ahead? Definitely not the USA. The Russian Federation began supplying weapons to the Kurds and not any cartridges with barrels.
        2. Kurds are not represented at negotiations in Vienna because of Turks. But on the other hand, Syria’s friends participate in a round table in Moscow. That is, the Kurds are closer to the Russian Federation than to the Yankees.
        3. After the "truce" in Aleppo, everything became clear. Evidence of the Turks' help came out. Militants, weapons, b / k, medicines, etc. Otherwise, they started fighting again. action, much less attack, without all this supply and people? These documents were provided by Lavrov Kerry in Vienna. Therefore, Kerry took on "increased obligations" to pacify the militants of Turkey, CA, Qatar.
        Of all this. The US is losing its role in Syria. Want-do not want; But the Russian Federation, with the help of the Kurds, showed how it will pacify the Turks at the border - and it may not stop at the Igls and ATGMs. What is the USA to do? Show "stormy activity" - at least they will be forced to talk to satellites. But in my opinion, everything is clear. Erdogan, if he does not want to destroy his country at all, is forced to turn on the back (but he seems to be completely illiterate and not far-sighted - so you can expect anything from him - then he will wash his country in blood). The United States, on the other hand, cannot lose contact with Russia - it will remain without Victory (they also need to cling to themselves, declare themselves victors) - therefore it would be stupid to escalate with Russia over Syria, the winner is already clear (GDP will not give up to Syria; Lebanese, Iranians, Kurds, Syrians, Egyptians, Jordanians, Israelis, Arabs fly to Moscow more often than across the ocean - the United States will not stand such a confrontation - they do not need it). hi
  4. Knowing
    Knowing 17 May 2016 07: 23
    There is no respect for blackmailers anywhere, maybe only in parallel universes ... laughing Where so Erdogan seeks.
  5. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 17 May 2016 07: 27
    Erdogan is confident in his infallibility. And invulnerability. But in vain. The hangover will be bitter. Tomatoes do not get off.
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 17 May 2016 11: 59
      [quote = Mountain Shooter] Erdogan is confident in his infallibility. And invulnerability. But in vain. The hangover will be bitter. They won't get off with tomatoes. [/ Quote]
      Friendship with terrorists will cost him his head. [Quote = Mountain shooter]
  6. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 17 May 2016 07: 53
    100% of the fart is tucked away. I think that our president has one of the associated goals. And maybe even in the main ones.
    You can't just shoot down Russian planes! "They won't get off with tomatoes alone ..."
    In action. It remains to squeeze.
  7. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 17 May 2016 07: 54
    Fearing alone to “oust” the Russians in the Black Sea, the Turkish neo-Sultan decided to seek the help of NATO.

    Suffice it to recall how he (after his crime against the Russian plane), forgetting about his "greatness", "pride" and "fearlessness", quickly, half-bent ran for support in NATO and everything falls into place. Oleg, I completely agree with your final part of the review, so comments are unnecessary.
    1. cap
      cap 17 May 2016 08: 31
      Quote: rotmistr60
      Fearing alone to “oust” the Russians in the Black Sea, the Turkish neo-Sultan decided to seek the help of NATO.

      Suffice it to recall how he (after his crime against the Russian plane), forgetting about his "greatness", "pride" and "fearlessness", quickly, half-bent ran for support in NATO and everything falls into place. Oleg, I completely agree with your final part of the review, so comments are unnecessary.


      On the plane, he agreed at the summit with Obama.
      After he shot him down, it turns out he reported. But the answer "figure it out yourself," certainly did not expect to hear. Obama decided to test Putin with Erdogan's hands.
      After that, blackmail by refugees began. Well, and money where without them.
  8. techie
    techie 17 May 2016 08: 27
    I wonder who Erdogan considers himself. Already go to an overwhelming tyrant, mired in problems from all sides. He loves himself for sure without measure and sees .. well, okay, second after Allah. Such dreamers first open their eyes, and then close. He is not the first, he is not the last.
    1. Kotyara Fat
      Kotyara Fat 17 May 2016 15: 38
      Hello. So it happens and just close ...
  9. 31rus2
    31rus2 17 May 2016 08: 29
    Dear, I have a slightly different question, why Russia still supplies gas to Turkey, why sanctions on food products are introduced late, about information on the ban on the import of pumpkin and zucchini from Turkey !!! (you can grow it in Russia without problems), this is generally a crime, I wonder who signed the contract for the supply of these products to Russia, we closed the whole cannery, and they grew and produced zucchini and made caviar and pickled, etc., so that they were not afraid to give children, and here it turns out zucchini and pumpkin (which in the chernozem region sprouts are excellent on any land and garden) export goods
    1. troyan
      troyan 17 May 2016 13: 37
      And you don’t need to talk about it, this is business. On the issue of gas supplies: already, revenues from the sale of raw materials fell, the oligarchs began to have little money, so did Turkey lose, or what? This is in propaganda for UR-Utriots the Russian economy is not a raw material economy, but the facts are telling something different.
      1. Bramb
        Bramb 17 May 2016 15: 52
        You would go to your brothers with the wise so-called thoughts: galloping monkeys.
        And if we talk about gas and Gazprom, then its revenues increased 1.9 times. And physical volumes have grown too. Rosneft has grown too, I don't remember how lazy to look. And where did "raw material revenues fall"? At the same time, taxes on oil and gas make up 30% of the budget. These are the facts. Did you drink arithmetic with beer at school or with vodka right away?
        Now you can put on your torn Turkish harem pants and run and jump from here to the famous Peruvian village.
    2. Bramb
      Bramb 17 May 2016 15: 47
      We still have a lot of liberalism ...
  10. masiya
    masiya 17 May 2016 09: 43
    It was and will be the RUSSIAN LAKE, history has confirmed this for centuries.
  11. iliya87
    iliya87 17 May 2016 09: 50
    All this garbage, as is known in the world of black (not counted money) ten times more than white capital. Given the fact that the United States actually directly said that the transatlantic trade union will be in both the EU and Europe they want to make a forge (production of goods), the flow of refugees is not surprising (cheap labor, no-one is going to pay to snickering Europeans, otherwise the goods will not competitive). Therefore, how and what will turn is not known and what role Turkey plays in this, and most importantly, that they were promised for their help.
  12. troyan
    troyan 17 May 2016 13: 33
    Eh, how everyone is against Erdogan and the Turks. And what did the majority say before, when Putin tried to push the Turkish Stream out? Remind me or not? When the minority said that there was no need to have anything to do with the Turks, that one stream was no better than the other, their voices were drowned in a mass of jingoistic cries. Your idol has broken off. So you have now turned 180 degrees.
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 17 May 2016 15: 53
      Recall, preferably with links.
      And then you're constantly lying here.
  13. Dimon19661
    Dimon19661 17 May 2016 14: 31
    Guys, maybe it’s enough to throw hats ??? Turkey has its own policy, we have our own. I don’t want to justify anyone, but in a normal way Turkey will soon be in the European Union, and it normally havers the money that the rest of Europe gives her on the refugee problem. Turkey in NATO, and I don’t think that it will be kicked out of this organization, if only for the reason of its successful and key position in relation to Asian countries. And you went in droves to rest there and did not buzz. You just be consistent, otherwise you change your mind like some girls .TURKEY ALWAYS been an enemy of Russia, you just forgot it or didn’t know it, rather the second. Learn the story ....
    1. Bramb
      Bramb 17 May 2016 15: 58
      And what, the EU - is the purpose and meaning of life? )))
      Ask the Bulgarians how they live there. Greeks won't lie ...
      And what does "be consistent" mean? This is where the consistency is observed!
      We lived with a neighbor peacefully - relations are good. The neighbor began to spoil the relationship - the relationship worsened. Everything is logical and consistent. Or do you personally, when they hit you in the face, then rise from the ground, wipe your red snot and say: "Sorry, neighbor, I will not spoil relations with you. You are still a good person. Break my bones." So what?
      If so, then you need a doctor.
      1. Dimon19661
        Dimon19661 17 May 2016 16: 08
        Order a doctor yourself, read the post carefully, or turn on your head.
    2. The stranger
      The stranger 18 May 2016 03: 28
      Turkey in the European Union? There is a first candidate for the "Joke of the Week" competition!
      She will never be in the EU, even if Merkelikha is not sent to retirement and is not buried. Yes, and Turkey itself will not be in its present form, and there such events will ripen that no one will ever return to this stupid question.
      Although the observation is correct - when Brussels broke the South Stream, many tweeted about the bastards - the Bulgarians, and the Turkish brothers. And the archives do not burn, according to Bulgakov, so that someone should be more modest.
  14. Polar Bear
    Polar Bear 17 May 2016 16: 52
    Turkey was not lucky with the Sultan.

    ... and that's it.