Military Review

Stop the panic! America is the strongest!

51
Recently in the United States there was a slight panic. She was provoked by a RAND think tank report. Analysts have suggested that the Russians are able to seize the Baltic countries with the aim of “driving a wedge” into NATO. The West has nothing to oppose to Putin’s plans. Sober-minded people in the US are calling for a stop to panic: after all, the Russians are not going to seize Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia at all. Moreover, in the conduct of a “hybrid” war, the superiority is not Moscow, but the West. And indeed, the West has the answer to Putin!


Stop the panic! America is the strongest!


Mark Galeotti is a professor of international politics at New York University. The other day his article appeared in the publication "Vox".

The professor notes that Moscow has no plans for the "capture" of the Baltic states. Yes, even if she wanted to - the United States and NATO would punish her for this, there is more than enough means to answer. Moreover, despite some panic in the ranks, and also despite Russia's successful use of the methods of a “hybrid” war, the truth is that the West has superiority in the field of such wars.

Disputes about what Russia can and will do have received a new impetus after the RAND brain trust report was released at the beginning of 2016. The document was based on the results of the “war games”, during which the “form and the likely results of Russia's intervention in the Baltic countries in the near future” were evaluated.

Employees of the RAND Corporation made a remarkable conclusion: now NATO is “unable to effectively defend the territory of the most vulnerable members of the alliance,” especially the Baltic countries. Experts are convinced that Russia will conquer Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in about sixty hours.

Such a short time seriously surprised Mark Galeotti. He was surprised by the surprise of the Russian “invasion” declared by experts. You can not hide the invasion "from the eyes of the West," he said.

But the main thing is different: are the Russians going to seize the Baltic countries? Why does Putin need this “headache”?

Galeotti does not believe that the Russians will embark on such an adventure, because their Putin is not an “imperialist moved by his mind”, who is seeking to “revive the Soviet Union.” In addition, the seizure of the Baltic countries would have brought Putin even more hostile attitudes of the West and three small territories with outraged residents. Perhaps the latter would become partisans.

And what would give the Russians this seizure? In the Baltic countries there are no resources that Russia could really use.

Finally, the strategic effect would have been the opposite of what was intended: instead of a split of NATO, a seizure would consolidate the alliance.

Well, and financial measures. If Putin were to attack the Baltic countries, the West would respond by completely closing its markets for Russia. All economic and political leverage would be used to “isolate Russia from its trading partners.” By the way, Russia imports almost 40% of food consumed. Finally, the West could go to squeezing Russia out of SWIFT.

And no matter what Putin would like there, ordinary Russians, in the face of a falling ruble, would hardly have tolerated anything like that. The author believes that the stereotypes according to which Russian “fatalist peasants” put up with hardships and hardships for the sake of the Motherland do not correspond to the realities of Putin’s Russia. Putin’s popularity is based only on his ability to achieve easy victories - like the Crimea and Syria.

There is also a serious computer tool to counter Putin: Western hacker attacks can disable mobile networks in Russia. Russian will remain without cellular communication. Computer programs managing rail transport, banking systems, etc. will be damaged. Payment cards will not function, trains will stop, and so on.

Then NATO can close the Dardanelles for Russian military and civilian ships. The West, which controls the sea routes, can block the movement of enemy cargo ships and prevent third countries from trading with Russia.

“The day when the West decides to behave as mercilessly as Russia will be a black day for the Kremlin,” the professor says.

Therefore, there is no need to panic: after all, the risk for the West is not at all in its real weakness, but in the fact that it only looks weak.

On the subject of a possible US war with Russia, spoke and historian, a famous expert on Russia Stephen Cohen (Stephen F. Cohen). The publication appeared in the journal "Nation".

As the scientist notes, NATO, led by America, continues to increase its military presence on land, at sea and in the air near the borders of the Russian Federation. Moscow sends back Aviation for flying over a USS. The absurdity is that Washington and Brussels, two decades moving military forces to the borders of Russia, because of this incident began to accuse Moscow of "provocations against NATO."

Who is provoking anyone here? After all, the buildup of NATO forces at the borders of the Russian Federation is very similar to the preparation of the Germans for the invasion of 1941 in June. Some politicians in Russia point out, the historian notes that the West, led by the United States, intends to unleash a hot war against Russia. There is even an opinion in Russia that a liberal government should be changed and the program of a mobilization economy (on the Soviet model) urgently adopted in order to prepare for war with the West.

Mr. Cohen himself does not know the answer to the question: why do US and NATO politicians lead things to war with Russia - are they doing this because of stupidity or are they really preparing to attack the Russians?

* * *


So, historian Cohen hints at Washington and Brussels' stupidity provoking Russia to show strength. The professor of international politics, Mark Galeotti, is stinging this stupidity on the shelves.

According to the latter, the West, and not Moscow, has superiority in the field of hybrid wars. Putin’s seizure of the Baltic countries (from which the NATO-Russia war expected by the RAND corporation will begin) will lead to the partisan movement in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia: historical local residents have experience, says the professor. The capture will lead to the consolidation of the North Atlantic Alliance, which will find something to answer Russia.

The whole West will also respond with financial measures to begin with: complete closure of its markets for Russia and squeezing it out of SWIFT. Another answer is hacker attacks, which destroy payment systems, communication systems, railway transport, etc. in Russia.

As a result, everything will rise against Putin, including the peasants. This day "will be a black day for the Kremlin."

The professor just had to shout: "Putin, give up!"

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
51 comment
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  1. Alexander 3
    Alexander 3 13 May 2016 06: 16
    +9
    The Balts even grow ticks of a special breed that attack the military. True, they sometimes confuse and attack the Lithuanian partisans. The truth is that there are only a few of them 200 each.
    1. Enot-poloskun
      Enot-poloskun 13 May 2016 07: 03
      +12
      I read the article. Interesting! I thought - maybe the Baltic countries are just a cover? Disinformation of the West? Maybe distract? And the strike will be done elsewhere.

      And this place is inside the country. Fifth column.
      1. smel
        smel 13 May 2016 07: 39
        +11
        It is high time to understand that the Americans need this nonsense at the expense of the Baltic states only to extort money for the military budget. And the Russian Federation, if something needs to be changed, is the American regime in the states themselves. It's time for Gergiev to prepare a concert in Washington
      2. oblako
        oblako 13 May 2016 10: 52
        +2
        And if, in response to a disconnection, you crave for SWIFT servers, and comrade ensign? The entire financial system of the West is in ruin ... We crave, but not now ...
      3. Prometey
        Prometey 13 May 2016 19: 19
        -3
        Quote: Enot-poloskun
        And this place is inside the country. Fifth column.

        And who is the 5th column? Those who vote against Putin and his party? So this is more than half the country's population.
    2. Serg 122
      Serg 122 13 May 2016 07: 05
      +3
      As a result, everything will rise against Putin, including the peasants. This day "will be a black day for the Kremlin."
      The professor just had to shout: "Putin, give up!"

      Yes, yes, we are slowly starting. Wait ... smile laughing wassat
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. siberalt
      siberalt 13 May 2016 08: 30
      +4
      But who needs nafig, these limitrophs? But, if absolutely without a pig's squeal, then no one will even hear them at all. laughing Except for "we hate rushu", they are no more valuable to the West. Well, this is the lot of mongrels - to yapping at the behest of the owner. Otherwise, you won't get a bone for lunch.
    5. Vend
      Vend 13 May 2016 09: 35
      +4
      The professor notes that Moscow has no plans for the "capture" of the Baltic states. Yes, if I wanted to - the United States and NATO would punish her for this, the means to answer is more than enough.

      Regarding the first, Russia's impoverished balts are useless. Once again, they will restore industry and the entire economy, and they will respond with black malice and ingratitude. It’s better to put money into Russian needs.
      Regarding the second, yes NATO has something to answer: non-flying aircraft, stuck in coastal sand armored vehicles, old equipment, cowardly military, etc.
      1. sq
        sq 13 May 2016 10: 57
        0
        The Baltic States themselves in the form that Russia does not need now. The only territory without human debris located there
        1. Alexander 3
          Alexander 3 13 May 2016 13: 40
          +2
          Have you thought what you wrote?
        2. Mengad
          Mengad 14 May 2016 11: 23
          +1
          You don’t have to call the Baltic population garbage! Yes there are a bunch of idiots who run the whole of politics, but that doesn’t mean that everything is fascists and Natsik there, believe there are a lot of adequate people even among Latvians, Lithuanians, Estonians, not to mention the Russian-speaking population of these republics , and most of these people.
  2. Vasyan1971
    Vasyan1971 13 May 2016 06: 19
    +22
    Danunah! "The invasion cannot be hidden from the eyes of the West." Is this about wiretapping allies and your citizens? "Easy Victory in Crimea and Syria"? This is it from envy, I guess. Everything is always thicker and lighter in the wrong hands. And why should this Russia be afraid, afraid? In case of stopping the supply of GM potatoes and hormonal meat, they themselves will rest, the barbarians of the north. And as a "control" - cut the Main Mobile Cable. Then exactly - Kapets. Black kapets !!!
    It seems that the recommended Mark recently traveled to Kiev to visit. Well, he was poisoned by something.
    1. uskrabut
      uskrabut 13 May 2016 09: 05
      +3
      bitten maidanutye laughing
  3. sgazeev
    sgazeev 13 May 2016 06: 26
    +15
    Owned by the owner of three raving dogs. laughing
    1. spech
      spech 13 May 2016 06: 44
      +3
      Owned by the owner of three raving dogs.

      DON'T EXCUSE Dogs laughing
    2. Zvon
      Zvon 13 May 2016 13: 25
      0
      Come on, Estonia is normal! Yes, last year our Gagarina set the maximum score for Eurovision!
  4. igordok
    igordok 13 May 2016 06: 31
    +3
    And what would give the Russians this seizure? In the Baltic countries there are no resources that Russia could really use.

    No economic resources. Convenient ports - this topic is no longer relevant.
    Only a military-political resource. For Russia - the foreground, to prevent attacks in a vulnerable area. For NATO, the opposite is the bridgehead for an attack in a vulnerable area.
    1. mihasik
      mihasik 13 May 2016 09: 51
      +3
      Quote: igordok
      And what would give the Russians this seizure? In the Baltic countries there are no resources that Russia could really use.

      No economic resources. Convenient ports - this topic is no longer relevant.
      Only a military-political resource. For Russia - the foreground, to prevent attacks in a vulnerable area. For NATO, the opposite is the bridgehead for an attack in a vulnerable area.

      Yes, everything repeats according to the pattern, only with an advantage on the side of the West.
      If the NATO-RF turmoil begins, then the US hopes that everything will happen on the territory of the EU, and even better in the territories of the former republics of the USSR, that is, in our former territories, that is, so that we will be stuck in our own cesspool of the former republics until the US inflicts decisive blow. For this, both the European missile defense system and the bases around the Russian Federation. Strategically, the United States is now in "chocolate", because the Russian Federation is now surrounded by NATO bases, and not vice versa. But it should be the other way around, then not only we would breathe more freely.
  5. Knowing
    Knowing 13 May 2016 06: 35
    +8
    Right word: Sick people. The trans-Baltic "tigers" together with NATO will devour themselves from Russophobia ... Why strain.
    1. Vasyan1971
      Vasyan1971 13 May 2016 06: 59
      +6
      So cling to each other. Either they get warm, or they are afraid. Do not build, but the crowd. And as you know - the mind of the crowd is invariably lower than that of the individuals forming it. Is that the shepherd will drive in the right direction. Whip, gingerbread ...
    2. crumb
      crumb 13 May 2016 10: 48
      +3
      bugger parade?
  6. strelets
    strelets 13 May 2016 06: 41
    +3
    In one I agree with the professor: we do not need the Baltic states. We don’t need someone else’s, but we won’t give our own.
  7. parusnik
    parusnik 13 May 2016 06: 42
    +4
    The Baltic states and don’t have anything for nothing and don’t have any money ... The time will come to creep on their own .... with a cry: Vanya! We are yours forever .... got lost .. take it back ...
  8. spech
    spech 13 May 2016 06: 43
    +4
    but actually they paid for them with gold, or "CAPITALISMUS" does not work here am
    1. EvgNik
      EvgNik 13 May 2016 09: 19
      +2
      Quote: spech
      but actually they paid for them with gold, or "CAPITALISMUS" does not work here

      Here another principle works: And to hell do we have this headache? And the money would not hurt to return.
  9. cobalt
    cobalt 13 May 2016 06: 54
    +2
    In my Galleoti there is the only reasonable person, in fact, the Baltic states are fucking for us, we have an acute shortage of sprats that we can’t live without them, it’s time for the Baltic politicians and their friends from overseas to drink something new so that the evil bear stops imagining .
  10. inkass_98
    inkass_98 13 May 2016 07: 03
    +4
    Perhaps the latter would become partisan.

    I almost choked on my tea. Who will partisan there and, most importantly, where? Capable "partisans" have long been partisans in Europs, the old undead will no longer be able to do this, the Russian part of the population is unlikely to think of opposing their liberators. All that remains are the aggressively barking politicians of these nedotigers. But this audience will be the first to rush to occupy a place in emigration.
    Z.Y. But what the hell is this for us? Themselves bend, but we have nowhere to hurry.
  11. mamont5
    mamont5 13 May 2016 07: 18
    0
    The first conclusion of this professor is correct - "Moscow has no plans about the" capture "of the Baltic states", but the second - "The United States and NATO would punish it for this, there is more than enough funds to answer" ... Well, well. There have already been precedents. You are welcome, "willing".
  12. FREGATENKAPITAN
    FREGATENKAPITAN 13 May 2016 07: 27
    +2
    The professor smokes normally .. I don’t know that Western hackers in Russia will be turned off there, but the best hackers as far as I know live in Russia and China ....... I don’t know how they close the Bosphorus and stop the trains ... I only know that then Europe and the Baltic states by this time will definitely not be .......
  13. dobrik10
    dobrik10 13 May 2016 07: 44
    +2
    And no one even thinks, in reality, that our country will begin the invasion of the Baltic states, in fact, to nothing. The Baltic states are just lamb for slaughter, a certain zone for future provocations. And Erdogan for a reason, nothing to do, our plane shot down. But in the realities of the Baltic provocation can be worse. The worst thing is that the Americans, as usual, substitute at least someone but just not themselves. A hypothetical NATO will dissipate, the islanders, as usual, want to sit out on the sidelines ... stsuki
  14. dobrik10
    dobrik10 13 May 2016 07: 55
    +2
    And in general, they would have gathered for a long time barefoot in several countries, fortunately, many have a grudge against mattress mats, to spread their entire fleet to zero and establish a no-fly zone over the entire coast of the "citadel" of democracy. Let them sit and think for a couple of decades over their behavior. Then ordinary people, both the White House and the Pentagon with shit, eat it for sure.
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. Alex ..
    Alex .. 13 May 2016 08: 27
    +2
    Employees of the RAND Corporation made a noteworthy conclusion: now NATO “is not able to effectively protect the territory of the most vulnerable members of the alliance”

    Now for sure ...
  17. Ros 56
    Ros 56 13 May 2016 08: 34
    0
    Mark strained his brains, he probably was relaxing on the beach in Jurmala, and so he is afraid that he will not have to. Well, who needs to capture the tribalt, they probably want it themselves, but do not want to capture them even crack. And no matter what the sales market is, live and rejoice, but here such a bummer.
  18. Svetovod
    Svetovod 13 May 2016 08: 38
    0
    Alarm !!! Wooolkii! Wolves are coming!
    Soon no one will believe in this nonsense, and those who really believed about the inevitable occupation are stronger than others.
  19. Fearless
    Fearless 13 May 2016 08: 42
    +1
    Dream idiots hahaha.
  20. Mestny
    Mestny 13 May 2016 08: 43
    0
    Quote: strelets
    In one I agree with the professor: we do not need the Baltic states.

    The Baltic states are not needed. We need territory in order to push the peaceful NATO away from the borders.
  21. troyan
    troyan 13 May 2016 08: 58
    +1
    "Russia exports almost 40% of the food it consumes."
    What is it like? Or did the author confuse import and export?
    1. Mart
      13 May 2016 10: 17
      0
      Yes, I beg your pardon, slip. Imports, checked in the original and corrected.
  22. iliya87
    iliya87 13 May 2016 09: 43
    0
    Putin’s popularity is based only on his ability to achieve easy victories - like Crimea and Syria.

    Are these easy wins? I wonder what are then difficult in the opinion of the "scientist"
  23. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 13 May 2016 10: 09
    +1
    Progressive warlike idiocy on takeoff! This nonsense is not even a comment.
  24. lexx2038
    lexx2038 13 May 2016 10: 15
    0
    Yes, we don’t need the Baltic states, well, it’s painfully good bridgehead there, with a powerful military infrastructure of the former USSR. This bridgehead is ideal both against Russia and against the West if it were ours.
  25. iwakura
    iwakura 13 May 2016 10: 42
    0
    I wonder how 40% of food is calculated, by the number of items or what?
    I then decided that for breakfast, lunch and dinner I consume all of the domestic products
    But! I remembered that yesterday I bought bananas for the children, and on Monday there were imported oranges. though I wouldn't call it "food"
  26. Rostislav
    Rostislav 13 May 2016 10: 43
    0
    Article + only for one
    The professor just had to shout: "Putin, give up!"
  27. South Ural
    South Ural 13 May 2016 10: 45
    -4
    War as a means of solving problems (such as a small victorious ...) could not change anything for the better. A country (any) can win a war only when it really understands and supports the people. And our people are not ready to fight for this power. Just like the people - mercenaries (the so-called contract soldiers), these are yes, so this is their work, and for the rest we need more serious incentives. DO NOT forget the story in general and the centenary in particular
  28. silver_roman
    silver_roman 13 May 2016 11: 02
    0
    yes, Mark Galeotti is a typical vegetable, squinting under the political scientist and strategist!
  29. Berber
    Berber 13 May 2016 11: 35
    +1
    The West is even more stereotyped than we are. They still cherish the hope for some kind of revolution, so that later they can really deprive our country of its sovereignty, divide it into parts and send troops to suppress if something happens. In short, "Barbarossa" in hybrid form. The stupidity in this is not that they hope to pull it off. And they don't understand that we have all received vaccinations against revolutions.
  30. Chulman
    Chulman 13 May 2016 11: 36
    0
    Well vaaaasche .... one is worse than the other! fool
  31. Mengad
    Mengad 13 May 2016 16: 17
    0
    Very smart people, these analysts .. universities finished visible ...)) any sane person .. who at least a little drags on military tactics understands this and does not need to graduate from universities))
  32. Kotost
    Kotost 13 May 2016 16: 39
    0
    The whole Baltic together taken less than my land, and how much stink ...
    1. Mengad
      Mengad 13 May 2016 17: 13
      0
      It's not about the size ... it's about the geographical location. The Baltic is a wedge between the Russian enclave Kaliningrad .. and St. Petersburg ... plus non-freezing ports .. so .. from a military point of view .. this territory has already been played out ..
  33. Kibl
    Kibl 13 May 2016 18: 19
    +1
    FUCKED !!!! AND MORE THAN !!!!!!
  34. Torins
    Torins 13 May 2016 21: 57
    0
    All these NATO bases around Russia are being created in poor countries in need of constant cash infusions, and the construction of military bases is one way to replenish the budget. At the same time, political delights in the form of "The Russians want to take us over" are nothing more than advertising "Build a military base here, well, build ... please !!!! We need money !!!" At the same time, these bases in themselves are not a serious military force, the only bonus from them to the main NATO players is the ability to concentrate a sufficient amount of ammunition and fuel for the rapid deployment of a wider contingent in the event of an aggravation of the situation, which is unlikely. Yes, and such bases are vulnerable to attacks from banal cruise missiles.
    In general, all this hype is for the most part a politician, and in a much smaller part, at least to a small extent, the real actions of the enemy hi
  35. SashOK
    SashOK 13 May 2016 22: 42
    0
    meanwhile, radio amateurs have been observing since the fall of last year the activation of numbered square-band radio stations broadcasting in the west and in asashai.
    what is it for...
  36. Torins
    Torins 13 May 2016 23: 40
    0
    Quote: SashOK
    meanwhile, radio amateurs have been observing since the fall of last year the activation of numbered square-band radio stations broadcasting in the west and in asashai.
    what is it for...

    Why not? Radio lovers generally notice a lot of things. They say that they noticed a catastrophe of missiles with a man on board even before Yuri Gagarin, already about seven people. Should they be believed? I think that such information should be approached very cautiously, and there is no need to talk about trust.
  37. t118an
    t118an 15 May 2016 12: 56
    0
    Exactly! What the hell did Russia give up the Baltic States? Again, they should build industry, or something ...