Military Review

OPEC on the verge of death

23
The head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, believes that OPEC has practically ceased to exist as a single organization. You can forget about the times of the 1970s, when the cartel determined the conditions on the world oil market. Today "a number of objective factors" prevent "dictate their conditions to the market". Experts remind that today, other members of the cartel, despite the low price of "black gold", tend not to reduce, but to increase production.




OPEC practically ceased to exist as a single organization, the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, told Reuters.

“1970-s, when a number of major producers could determine the global conditions of the oil market by creating cartel structures, such as OPEC, should be forgotten,” Sechin comments, sent by Reuters, via email, RBC.

The main man in Rosneft also noted that now "a number of objective factors exclude the possibility for any cartels to dictate their conditions to the market."

“As for OPEC, it has practically ceased to exist as a single organization,” added Mr. Sechin.

Reuters calls Sechin "the most influential" Russian oil top manager and "longtime ally of President Vladimir Putin."

As noted by RBC, Mr. Sechin first made a comment after the April meeting in Qatar, where the world's leading oil producers could not agree on a “freeze” of oil production in order to maintain prices.

Earlier, recalls "Lenta.ru"The head of Rosneft has repeatedly expressed skepticism about the cartel. In addition, he stated that Russia needs to adhere to its own strategy.

In mid-April, we recall, in the capital of Qatar, negotiations took place between representatives of oil-producing states. Analysts were waiting for any agreement of the meeting participants on the “freezing” of oil production, but the expected decision was not followed. The reason for the cartel disagreement is in the special opinion of Saudi Arabia. She suddenly, just before the meeting, refused to sign any agreements without the participation of a new major market player of Iran, and its representatives simply did not go to Doha: they have no interest in cutting production. They have the exact opposite task: to increase the volume of production at least to the pre-sanction level.

The fact that the oil cartel practically ceased to influence the oil market, at the end of April 2016, was also announced by the Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak, who gave an interview RBC.

According to him, “the agreements within OPEC are not respected, quotas are exceeded. OPEC takes no action. ” As a result, unlike the previous decades, OPEC now "does not affect the oil markets in any way."

“For example,” the minister said, “Saudi Arabia is increasing production.” She can do it outside of OPEC, pursuing her own policy. This begs the question: what is the function of the cartel? ”

The Russian minister also noted changes in the situation on the world oil market since 2008. OPEC has no former influence on world markets, since “technologies of shale oil production on an industrial scale appeared, and importing countries that used to buy oil and extracted little themselves, such as the United States, began to significantly increase their own production, thereby reducing the demand for oil ". At the same time, “exporters have no influence on such countries and cannot agree with them: interests are completely different.”

“Previously, any coordination of actions within OPEC and a reduction in quotas significantly influenced the supply of exporters and balanced the market,” Novak said in an interview. - Now, on the contrary, when the price rises, importing players enter the active phase, such as producers of shale oil. In this case, the actions of exporting countries become meaningless: again, supply exceeds demand, the price falls, and so on. ”

In fact, OPEC broke up two years ago, when two groups were formed inside, citing the opinion of Rustam Tankayev, leading expert of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia "Reedus".

The first group acts under the leadership of Venezuela and fights for the increase in oil prices (without success), the other operates under the leadership of Saudi Arabia. The purpose of the latter is to increase market share.

Anna Kokoreva, an analyst at Alpari, says the same thing: “The cartel has been divided into coalitions in recent years, and the main one is Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, and a number of other countries adjoin them. And their position in OPEC is dominant. A number of cartel members remain influential, but he, as an integral organization in the aggregate of all its participants, has lost his authority, because, indeed, he does not decide anything and does not influence anything. Affects the opinion of individual earners belonging to the cartel. ”

There was no reduction in production. On the contrary, other members of the cartel, despite the low price, tend not to reduce, but to increase production.

For example, the Saudis have announced their intention to significantly increase oil production in 2016 year. The state-owned company Saudi Aramco intends to increase production at the Scheib field by 33%.

Nigeria is also going to increase production. Oil Minister Emmanuel Kachikwu said that in 2016 it is planned to increase the average daily oil production to 2,3-2,5 million barrels per day (in March 2016 in Nigeria mined 1,677 million barrels per day).

Such government decisions, we add, suggest that the largest oil producers do not consider the possibility of "freezing." It also speaks of a noticeable reduction in the role of OPEC in pricing in the oil market. From now on, the leading players will strive to maintain the maximum market share, and not to increase profits by cartel collusion. Of course, the market will respond to this with another drop in the price of "black gold".

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
23 comments
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  1. mad
    mad 12 May 2016 06: 46
    +1
    They chop the branch on which they sit ... Someone for the glory of the Black Lord, someone on the contrary, from not loving him.
    Mattresses gloriously rocked the Middle East, we are waiting for the rollback and they themselves will overtake.
    1. Alex_Rarog
      Alex_Rarog 12 May 2016 08: 02
      0
      Yes, overtake, no doubt! only with the tying of most of the world economy to the dollar, there will be an enchanting scribe!
  2. Professor
    Professor 12 May 2016 07: 00
    +1
    In fact, OPEC broke up two years ago

    I won’t cry about the death of the cartel. Quite the contrary. Selling oil at $ 100 per barrel or even at $ 20 at a cost of $ 3-5 is criminal. I don’t remember another essential commodity where the manufacturer would profit from the buyer.
    1. Thirteenth
      Thirteenth 12 May 2016 07: 01
      +8
      Quote: Professor
      Selling oil at $ 100 per barrel or even at $ 20 at a cost of $ 3-5 is criminal.



      It is ridiculous to hear THIS from a Jew))) And in general, the meaning of any trade is to obtain the highest profit. Or am I misunderstanding something? Two years ago the same oil was sold for $ 100, today it costs less than half the price ... It turns out to be a strange economy.
      It would be understandable to reduce the price of a product if demand had plummeted. But they didn’t buy oil less ... and the price should not go down.
      1. Professor
        Professor 12 May 2016 07: 14
        +1
        Quote: Thirteenth
        It's funny to hear THIS from a Jew)))

        Laughter for no reason is a sign ...

        Quote: Thirteenth
        And in general, the meaning of any trade is to obtain the highest profit. Or am I misunderstanding something?

        Do not understand. This postulate is true in the presence of free competition. In the presence of a monopoly or a cartel, completely different rules apply. And even among the most, that there are no bourgeois, the state is fighting fiercely in monopolies and cartels. Business itself, in the absence of competitors (monopoly and cartel), always withers. These are the laws of nature.

        Quote: Thirteenth
        Two years ago, the same oil was sold for $ 100, today it costs less than half the price ... It turns out to be a strange economy.

        Nothing strange. The laws of the market are supply and demand. There will be free competition and a barrel will cost $ 8-10. good
        1. Thirteenth
          Thirteenth 12 May 2016 07: 31
          +4
          Quote: Professor
          Nothing strange. The laws of the market are supply and demand. There will be free competition and a barrel will cost $ 8-10


          Market law, get the most profit. What is the point of selling the same Saudis oil for $ 10, even if the cost of production is $ 3, if you can get 50 and 100 and even 120-130 dollars for the same barrel.

          Quote: Professor
          And even among the most, that there are no bourgeois, the state is fighting fiercely in monopolies and cartels. Business itself, in the absence of competitors (monopoly and cartel), always withers. These are the laws of nature.


          Aegeus, Professor, oil is not a business in the usual and generally accepted sense! The sale and production of oil in all countries of the world is under the strict control of the state and private traders are rarely allowed to the trough, and if allowed, it is not possible to influence state policy in this area.


          Quote: Professor
          Laughter for no reason is a sign ...


          The fact of the matter is that it is not without reason ... Although you have called yourself a Professor, you are clearly not one))).
          1. Professor
            Professor 12 May 2016 07: 44
            -1
            Quote: Thirteenth
            Market law, get the most profit. What is the point of selling the same Saudis oil for $ 10, even if the cost of production is $ 3, if you can get 50 and 100 and even 120-130 dollars for the same barrel.

            You are mistaken. The market is also regulated from the outside. An example of this is Microsoft in Europe. Restrictions began as soon as he was suspected of a monopoly.
            Saudis may want to sell oil for at least $ 1000, but a buyer is needed for this. There are such?

            Quote: Thirteenth
            Aegeus, Professor, oil is not a business in the usual and generally accepted sense! The sale and production of oil in all countries of the world is under the strict control of the state and private traders are rarely allowed to the trough, and if allowed, it is not possible to influence state policy in this area.

            Oil is the same business as trading in milk, meat or potatoes. The state observes and intervenes when necessary. Private traders are full. All shale oil is private.

            Quote: Thirteenth
            The fact of the matter is that it is not without reason ... Although you have called yourself a Professor, you are clearly not one))).

            You are a youth, do not poke me. We did not graze geese in one meadow.
            1. Thirteenth
              Thirteenth 12 May 2016 08: 30
              +3
              Quote: Professor
              You are mistaken. The market is also regulated from the outside. An example of this is Microsoft in Europe. Restrictions began as soon as he was suspected of a monopoly.



              The essence of you dear Professor do not catch. Microsoft is certainly an important, giant corporation, but against the background of world oil production and its importance for countries and economies, nothing exists. This is a private business! Oil is different. Oil is geopolitics, it is a weapon, it is an occasion to start wars, destruction of countries. This is something that no country in the world can live without, at least for now.

              Quote: Professor
              The state observes and intervenes when necessary. Private traders are full. All shale oil is private.



              Do you mean the USA? Well, yes, there is private oil, but its production is most severely controlled by the state. It would seem private oil with which its owner is free to do anything could not be exported abroad until the state gave the go-ahead!

              Quote: Professor
              You are a youth, do not poke me. We did not graze geese in one meadow.


              In a promised country does a professor graze geese?
              Relax, Professor. Well this is the Internet, here you can do without pomp, simplify communication a little.
              1. Professor
                Professor 12 May 2016 18: 16
                +3
                Quote: Thirteenth
                The essence of you dear Professor do not catch. Microsoft is certainly an important, giant corporation, but against the background of world oil production and its importance for countries and economies, nothing exists.

                Yes? This company and Apple are much larger than your entire hydrocarbon business in Russia.

                Quote: Thirteenth
                This is a private business! Oil is different.

                Meat and poultry are also different. So what? The state regulates its production much more seriously than the oil industry.

                Quote: Thirteenth
                Well, yes, there is private oil, but its production is most severely controlled by the state.

                The state controls the essentials much more seriously than oil.

                Quote: Thirteenth
                Relax, Professor. Well this is the Internet, here you can do without pomp, simplify communication a little.

                Rudeness, my friends, it is rudeness on the Internet.
        2. Forget
          Forget 12 May 2016 10: 12
          0
          Quote: Professor
          The laws of the market are supply and demand.

          this is ideal ... prices determine completely different laws ....
    2. okunevich_rv
      okunevich_rv 12 May 2016 07: 42
      +3
      The situation on the international market has changed, but on the domestic market it is very specific, the price of fuel and lubricants did not even flinch towards a downward direction, now summer fuel is now trading at a winter price.
      PROMOTING YOUR OWN PRODUCTS IN THE MARKET WITH A HIGH ENERGY PRICE DOES NOT GET! The manufacturer simply suffocates from the transport component, while refineries only increase the selling price of fuel and lubricants. So, agriculture will plow on horses, they will probably feed themselves, and the rest in the cities will not be able to afford to eat Russian products. It seems that OFAS entered into a conspiracy with oil tycoons. Where is the role of the state, where are the parties with legislative initiatives? Why do oil companies exacerbate the crisis, while lowering overall revenues across the country, are oil industry and energy revenues only growing?
    3. Alex_Rarog
      Alex_Rarog 12 May 2016 08: 06
      0
      I want to remind you about funny times with bird and other flu! when masks worth 0.5r sold at 16 and they are also in pharmacies!
    4. rpek32
      rpek32 12 May 2016 14: 54
      0
      Selling oil at $ 100 per barrel or even at $ 20 at a cost of $ 3-5 is criminal

      What is the price of an empty barrel? laughing
    5. gladcu2
      gladcu2 12 May 2016 20: 14
      0
      Professor

      But crying on the cartel is necessary. Oil cost is a kind of equivalent calculation. And also this is the cost of that petrodollar.

      The collapse of the cartel says only one thing. Laws regulating economic relations do not work. And this is very bad. Because chaos is a lot of losers.
    6. Weyland
      Weyland 12 May 2016 20: 20
      0
      Quote: Professor
      I don’t remember another essential commodity where the manufacturer would profit from the buyer.


      Of the modern ones, I won’t say it, but in the old days salt was welded no worse.
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 12 May 2016 07: 24
    0
    OPEC .. when there is no agreement among the comrades ....
  4. Stas157
    Stas157 12 May 2016 09: 18
    +3
    Oilmen of all countries are like idiots, instead of reducing oil supply, in conditions of low demand, they, on the contrary, increase production, supposedly in order to occupy a larger market. Is there a need for a market in which black gold tends to zero? In fact, the market is not a problem to occupy, and it’s more profitable to do this with high oil prices, slightly lowering your own. But the Russian oil industry fell into the trap of Western loans in order to find money to repay, they are forced to produce more and more oil, despite the drop in oil prices. And oil, after a recent jump, is likely to be adjusted down. Accordingly, the dollar is unlikely to fall below 60 rubles.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 12 May 2016 20: 21
      0
      Stas157

      What you wrote has a scientific term
      "crisis of capitalism".

      In view of the pumping of finances from consumers' pockets with the help of "means of production", consumers do not have the money to pay for the already produced product. And the capital holder is not a consumer.
  5. Slippery
    Slippery 12 May 2016 10: 15
    0
    Some kind of article ... How the CEO's speech and like words are spoken and like the meaning of words is clear, but what was said so no one did not understand. Hook up Nigeria? (a country under external control), then let's go to Qatar, whose production has collapsed by 60% (they are on strike, but we will not take this into account). Analysts at least some kind of zero. Agitation? ... An article in support of our Politburo? who was offended, so the negotiations. You have to be more flexible, your back will not break, one walk seems to be a friend of the self-aware and the greatest top manager, Novak is so handsome in general, why negotiate with Prince Salman, he is also the minister of defense, and that he is an ambitious son of the king, but if a musician, then our minister is all-applicable. .. In general, our delegation looked, if softly, "not how", and instead of conclusions you can hear Panikovski "atyktotaka", ...
    Quote: Professor
    Nothing strange. The laws of the market are supply and demand. There will be free competition and a barrel will cost $ 8-10.

    Real commodity markets have long been subordinated to financial and not only oil, metals, grain, etc. and it is no longer the classically fundamental demand and supply of goods that works, but the value and supply of cash tied to the dollar. As soon as the bucks to other currencies rises in price, oil becomes cheaper.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 12 May 2016 20: 33
      0
      Slippery

      Beautifully written. Use paragraphs only. So it’s easier to read the text.

      By the way, by stating a fact and expressing criticism, will there be proposals?

      And you know, it's not for you to carry bags.
  6. RedBaron
    RedBaron 12 May 2016 10: 40
    0
    Quote: Stas157
    Oilmen of all countries are like idiots, instead of reducing oil supply, in conditions of low demand, they, on the contrary, increase production, supposedly in order to occupy a larger market. Is there a need for a market in which black gold tends to zero? In fact, the market is not a problem to occupy, and it’s more profitable to do this with high oil prices, slightly lowering your own. But the Russian oil industry fell into the trap of Western loans in order to find money to repay, they are forced to produce more and more oil, despite the drop in oil prices. And oil, after a recent jump, is likely to be adjusted down. Accordingly, the dollar is unlikely to fall below 60 rubles.

    Long-term contracts are not so easy to obtain, especially when the supply exceeds demand, some are ready to work for the minus contracts, and not just like now, at a cost of 50-60 and seven to five dollars.
    And yet not unimportant, the cost of solar panels over the past few years has decreased by an order of magnitude, and an even greater reduction in hydrocarbon consumption is expected due to a massive shift to electric cars in the USA and Europe ...
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 12 May 2016 20: 36
      -1
      RedBaron

      Still would not hold on to a long-term contract. It’s like living under socialism, you can plan for 100 years ahead.

      So on the street is wild capitalism, when corporations crushed all legislative organizations for themselves.

      Heh, and then it will be even worse.
  7. Stas157
    Stas157 12 May 2016 13: 27
    +2
    Quote: RedBaron
    Long-term contracts are not so easy to obtain, especially when supply exceeds demand,

    Today, there is a surplus of oil in the market, according to your logic, it is very difficult to find a buyer. But, after all, a new player in the Iranian oil market, nevertheless, finds its customers, and in Western Europe! It only says that playing at a price, a buyer can always be found! Only doing this is more profitable when oil costs $ 120 per barrel, rather than 45, like this hour!
    the cost of solar panels in recent years has decreased by an order of magnitude
    So electricity is not derived from oil. Oil is mainly used for gasoline.
    because of the massive shift to electric cars in the US and Europe ...

    Can you tell me the ratio of gasoline and electric cars? The fact is, the number of cars on an internal combustion engine is growing every year!
  8. Pygmy
    Pygmy 12 May 2016 14: 10
    +1
    torn pieces from different media. There is no analysis of the material .... but it is a pity, a lot of interesting things are happening on the oil market. Especially the collision of the two bridges of the USA and the Saudis!
  9. RedBaron
    RedBaron 12 May 2016 14: 48
    +1
    Quote: Stas157
    Today, there is a surplus of oil in the market, according to your logic, it is very difficult to find a buyer. But, after all, a new player in the Iranian oil market, nevertheless, finds its customers, and in Western Europe! It only says that playing at a price, a buyer can always be found! Only doing this is more profitable when oil costs $ 120 per barrel, rather than 45, like this hour!

    Iran has clients as it dampens and is played at a price.
    Quote: Stas157
    So electricity is not derived from oil. Oil is mainly used for gasoline.

    What only do of oil .... fellow
    Quote: Stas157
    Can you tell me the ratio of gasoline and electric cars? The fact is, the number of cars on an internal combustion engine is growing every year!

    You lagged behind life, the transition to an electric car is already politics, California generally plans to ban the sale of internal combustion engines in five years.
  10. fa2998
    fa2998 12 May 2016 18: 33
    +2
    Quote: Slippery
    Some kind of article ...

    On the "Military Review, some kind of necrophile has started! For two years now they have been burying Ukraine, the EU, NATO, commemorations for the" collapsing USA, now they have reached OPEC. Men, this heading is NEWS! Here's how something will happen, you are the very first report it, and so some loud titles of articles! laughing yes hi
  11. Slippery
    Slippery 13 May 2016 00: 31
    +1
    Quote: fa2998
    On the "Military Review" got some kind of necrophile!

    Is that you about Sechin? He seems to bury OPEC. Pity the man, he went to sign a truly historic event (at least on the scale of oil production), and his Saudis drove. Although he must understand where he is going, the master in the branch with a check is one thing, but OPEC has enough of its own bars.
    Quote: gladcu2
    By the way, by stating a fact and expressing criticism, will there be proposals?

    Suggestions in the context of what issue?
    Quote: RedBaron
    You lagged behind life, the transition to an electric car is already politics, California generally plans to ban the sale of internal combustion engines in five years.

    Planning doesn't mean getting married. California already collects electric trucks of small and medium tonnage? or deliver products to Tesla shops?
    Solar panels are a great solution. But tell you to charge the car when convenient? In the evening after work? Imagine both me and my neighbor ... But the sun is really more convenient to shine at lunch)))
    There is no alternative to gasoline at the moment. Gasoline is the best energy storage. Mobile delivered, quickly overflowed, weight-to-energy ratio. Even if the state forces people to transfer to electric cars with the help of gingerbread or cuffs, see ...
    A liter of gasoline is about 8-9 kW / h, take statistics on how many liters per day in the same California gasoline is poured into tanks and multiply by 8 kW / h, there will be hundreds of gigawatts. Networks and the entire infrastructure of power engineers will be pulled?
  12. RedBaron
    RedBaron 13 May 2016 01: 38
    -1
    Quote: Slippery
    Planning doesn't mean getting married. California already collects electric trucks of small and medium tonnage? or deliver products to Tesla shops?
    Solar panels are a great solution. But tell you to charge the car when convenient? In the evening after work? Imagine both me and my neighbor ... But the sun is really more convenient to shine at lunch)))
    There is no alternative to gasoline at the moment. Gasoline is the best energy storage. Mobile delivered, quickly overflowed, weight-to-energy ratio. Even if the state forces people to transfer to electric cars with the help of gingerbread or cuffs, see ...
    A liter of gasoline is about 8-9 kW / h, take statistics on how many liters per day in the same California gasoline is poured into tanks and multiply by 8 kW / h, there will be hundreds of gigawatts. Networks and the entire infrastructure of power engineers will be pulled?

    Hydrogen is so much in this word ... at the dawn of the automotive industry they also spoke about these hellish carts, obscurantists. fellow