Military Review

China: GDP growth is there, but the “smallest”

14
According to the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the GDP growth rate of the Middle Kingdom in the first quarter of 2016 amounted to only 6,7%. At the end of last year, the growth rate of China's GDP slowed to 6,9%, and this was the worst figure in the last 25 years. Experts record a gradual slowdown in the growth of the national economy.


The text of the report of the National Bureau of Statistics of China can be found on link (in English.). The headline is encouraging: “In the first quarter of 2016, China’s economy showed a good start.”

Since the beginning of 2016, in the face of difficult international situations and a downward wave in the economic development cycle, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), the State Council and the entire Chinese people have approved measures taken to stabilize economic growth and risk control. China has stepped up efforts to promote structural reform. As a result of these measures, the overall performance of the national economy "continues to be stable" and "moves in a positive direction," indicates the National Statistics Bureau of the People's Republic of China.

According to preliminary estimates, the gross domestic product of China in the first quarter of 2016 of the year amounted to 15,8526 billion yuan, an increase of 9.6% year-over-year (in comparable prices, compared to the same period last year). Primary industry showed an increase of 6,7% year on year; secondary industry - by 2,9%; “Tertiary” (services) - by 5,8%.

At the same time, GDP growth rates were the smallest since the first quarter of 2009 (at that time, the figure dropped to 6,2%). Over the past year, China’s GDP grew by 6,9%.

The report notes that the area of ​​rice crops increased by 0,3%, and wheat - by 0,4%. At the same time, the area under maize was reduced by 0,9%, and cotton - by 18,8%. The cumulative production of poultry, pork, beef, and mutton has decreased in the country (by 3,1% less than in the first quarter of last year).



The volume of industrial production in comparable prices in the first quarter increased by 5,8%, however, compared to the same period of 2015, the growth slowed down by 0,3 percent. item.

Mineral production increased by 2,1%, production and distribution of water, heat and electric energy - by 2,6%, processing industries - by 6,5%.

Chinese high-tech in the first quarter showed an increase of 9,2%.

Growth in engineering amounted to 7,5%.

The International Monetary Fund has adjusted the forecast for the growth of Chinese GDP by 0,2% and set it at the level of 6,5%, recalls Deutsche Welle. The weakness of production will be compensated by success in the service sector, according to the IMF.

And yet, the Fund sees a danger to the financial stability of China, which comes from bad loans and low incomes of enterprises. Slowing growth in the Middle Kingdom can seriously affect the situation in the global economy.

In March, speaking at the session of the National People’s Congress, Premier of the PRC State Council Li Keqiang warned of new challenges the country would face.

He сообщилthat the forecast of China's economic growth for 2016 year is reduced to 6,5-7 percent.

According to the government's draft five-year development plan, the budget deficit of the PRC in 2016 will be 2,18 trillion. Yuan, or 3% of GDP. This indicates a growth rate compared with 2015 year (2,3%). In 2016, China’s defense spending will increase only by 7,6% (the lowest defense budget increase in six years).

Li Keqiang noted that China will face “more difficult” problems in the future and called for structural reforms.

According to analysts, the slowdown in China connected with sluggish internal and external demand, weak investment, excess production capacity, which increased the pressure of deflationary forces on the economy.

The General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China previously reported that the volume of China’s exports in dollar terms in February 2016 fell by 25,4% following the January decrease of 11,2%. This is the most significant drop since the start of 2009.

“In general, the situation among industrial enterprises is improving. If last year we registered a general decline in profits, this year we are seeing an increase in revenues. This suggests that the situation among Chinese enterprises in the area of ​​costs, commodity prices is improving. In general, the performance indicator of enterprises is also growing, "- said TASS optimistic official representative of the State Statistical Office of Sheng Laiyun.

“Of course, we need to take into account other indicators of the Chinese economy. In general, despite the preservation of growth, the situation in Chinese industry remains difficult, because the issue of overproduction is not resolved in a number of manufacturing sectors. But we believe that thanks to the reform of the country's economy and the measures of the government, the situation of such enterprises will improve, ”he said.

The slowdown in Chinese GDP growth is obvious. However, such a slowdown is a planned policy of the PRC leadership, said the president of the Russian-Chinese think tank Sergei Sanakoyev.

“If we follow the speeches of the Chinese leaders, then we see that the plans for the 13 5th five-year plan are to reduce the annual growth rates. But it’s still growth, and it’s the highest in the world, ”he said in an interview. Reedus.

“When someone talks about some kind of“ landing ”of the PRC economy, even if it is mild, even harsh, this is fundamentally wrong. This is about adjusting the pace in order not to overheat the national economy, ”the expert notes.

At the same time, we add, the “issue of overproduction”, which is very acute in China, will continue, despite the wise policy of the party, to create a lot of problems for China, which depends on exports. The government can hardly fight overproduction, that is, overstocking. The world market seems to be oversaturated with Chinese products, and the domestic market is too weak and poor to absorb such a mass of goods. Demand, as well as GDP growth, cannot be infinite. In addition, enterprises and banks in China suffer from problems with bad loans. It remains only to make vigorous statements in the spirit of "we believe" ...

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
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14 comments
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  1. Lyton
    Lyton April 21 2016 06: 13
    +3
    Their meeting looked at the box, which struck me not a single free seat, half of the deputies show our duplicate is absent, and this at this salary, they divorced parasites and loafers.
    1. HERMES
      HERMES April 21 2016 06: 19
      -4
      Quote: Lyton
      Their meeting looked at the box, which struck me not a single free seat, half of the deputies show our duplicate is absent, and this at this salary, they divorced parasites and loafers.


      That’s why in our Duma it’s more fun ... fights, Zhirinovsky, then again fights ... romance .. love

      1. Velizariy
        Velizariy April 21 2016 11: 56
        +1
        HERMES RU April 16, 2016 06:27 | Scouting

        Our commandos are not to blame for the fact that they are sitting in our intelligence dalb @ fuck. There will still be demand for such miscalculations. Not for the first time, so the intelligence mows ... UROD.

        HERMES RU April 16, 2016 22:01 | Scouting

        Quote: Bredovich705
        It sounds strange "our special forces" under the Russian flag in the nickname when the conversation is about Karabakh! So there is no special forces under OUR flag! Define a patriot .....

        I am from Baku) Better help me to fix this misunderstanding with the flag) In the profile settings, the "place of residence" column is blocked for me. And my IP address is also local. What is the problem?

        Here, I understand, you are an Azerbaijani. But! Explain when your Parliament was renamed the Duma and sent Zhirinovsky to you there ???
        1. shans2
          shans2 April 21 2016 12: 18
          -1
          it craps in Russia, but loves the Motherland from afar, typical ...
          1. HERMES
            HERMES April 22 2016 01: 13
            -1
            Quote: shans2
            it craps in Russia, but loves the Motherland from afar, typical ...


            Finish the sentence, what is already there ...
        2. HERMES
          HERMES April 22 2016 01: 12
          -2
          Quote: Velizariy
          Velizariy


          Archives raised?) FSBshnik?

          Quote: Velizariy
          But! Explain when your Parliament was renamed the Duma and sent Zhirinovsky to you there ???


          Nuuuu .... I live by Soviet realities wink Ours are yours, yours are our tongue Believe me ... our Milli Majlis is still that circus)
  2. Korsar4
    Korsar4 April 21 2016 06: 29
    +2
    6,7% growth - and this is a slowdown. It is enough to visit China once to understand that Europe has few chances. Of course, a lot of resource restrictions. But for everything that China undertakes, it receives.
    1. Revolver
      Revolver April 21 2016 06: 43
      +2
      7% is the minimum that China needs to absorb newcomers to the economy, and most importantly, those who invested in training. Anything less leads to an increase in unemployment, especially among young people, and as a result, an increase in social tension. And given the growing sexual imbalance, China's prospects are, to put it mildly, not the best.
      1. ImPerts
        ImPerts April 21 2016 07: 10
        +1
        It will be difficult for China to keep 7% in the current economic model. Therefore, they switch to growth due to the domestic market, and any changes are always accompanied by a decrease in growth rates. And there they will follow the path of the United States, when GDP will be formed not due to industrial production, but due to the services sector.
        I exaggerate, but the general point is this.
        1. voyaka uh
          voyaka uh April 21 2016 08: 32
          +2
          "And there they will follow the path of the United States, when GDP will not be formed at the expense of
          industrial production, and at the expense of the service sector. "////

          That's right. China has a poorly developed services sector and domestic market
          consumption, and this is a huge reserve.
          A country of 13 trillion gross domestic product cannot forever break with an annual gain of 10%.
          Gradually they will go down to normal + 3-4%.
        2. Karlovar
          Karlovar April 21 2016 15: 19
          0
          Have you noticed? High-tech, mechanical engineering, and the service sector are growing at a faster pace!
      2. Korsar4
        Korsar4 April 21 2016 08: 22
        +1
        And for the Russian Federation? The numbers are important, but often are crafty.
  3. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 April 21 2016 09: 00
    +3
    When someone talks about some kind of “landing” of the PRC economy, even if soft, even hard, this is fundamentally wrong.

    We need to discuss the problems of our own economy, not the Chinese one.
    Hypocrite, first remove the log from your eye and then you will see how to remove the speck from the eyes of your fellow man.
  4. Basarev
    Basarev April 21 2016 12: 40
    +1
    Quote: Korsar4
    And for the Russian Federation? The numbers are important, but often are crafty.

    And Russia just rolls into tartarara under the wise guidance of the sun-faced. Parasites understand that for a long time they will not be able to hold on to power - and therefore, they try to inflict maximum damage to the country.
  5. asadov
    asadov April 21 2016 19: 26
    0
    Well done. Everyone gathered (hall chock), everyone discussed. All the pros, all the cons. And most importantly - NO EMPTY PROMISE PROMISES ABOUT THE LIGHT FUTURE.