The following persons participated in the round table: First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, Mikhail Yemelyanov; deputy director of the Institute of CIS countries, political scientist Vladimir Zharikhin; Director General of the EurAsEC Institute, political scientist, philosopher Vladimir Lepyohin, etc.
The active military stage of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh will harm all of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Turkey. Who is it profitable? USA! Washington is the only beneficiary, says First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Economic Policy, Innovative Development and Entrepreneurship, Mikhail Yemelyanov.
“The political settlement of the Karabakh conflict is vital for Russia, because for us there is nothing more dangerous than the conflict in the post-Soviet space. Naturally, the revitalization in the region will involve Turkey in this war. It is not beneficial to anyone. It is obvious that the United States are the only beneficiaries of the conflict, "- quotes the chairman of the Duma committee Parliamentary Newspaper.
According to him, after the implementation of the scenario in Ukraine, it became clear that the White House will try to destabilize the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh. “It is clear that Armenia is our ally in economic association, and Azerbaijan is our partner, who has repeatedly supported Moscow,” the expert said. “For example, in PACE on the Ukrainian issue, so Moscow does not need this conflict.”
According to an expert who leads "Reedus"Washington is unhappy with the current (too independent) leadership of Azerbaijan. That is why earlier attempts have been repeatedly made to arrange a “Maidan” in Baku (without success). Irritating America and the behavior of Turkish President Erdogan. His imperial ambitions set Washington against Ankara. The White House does not need it as a powerful regional power. US relations with Russia almost returned to the Cold War. In this situation, Armenia is hostage to its close ties with Moscow.
However, other participants of the round table tend not to give the main initiative to the United States, but to Turkey.
As the director of the Russian Institute for Foreign Studies, Sergey Panteleev, recalled, not a single power, except her, responded positively to the outbreak of violence. According to the expert, not one Erdogan preaches the idea of a new Ottoman Empire. The main ideologue of neo-Ottomanism is the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu. And then there's the quarrel with Russia.
Vladimir Lepyokhin, Director General of the EurAsEC Institute, believes that the quarrel between Turkey and Russia was not accidental, and the downed Su-24 is an element of purposeful policy. In his opinion, one should not underestimate Turkey, which is gradually turning into a strong player claiming to be the regional leader, seeking even to oust Saudi Arabia from this place.
The expert is confident that for the realization of the goals Ankara uses a multi-way combination: it works out various mechanisms for controlling the Kurds and the IG and at the same time seizing foreign territories (Syria). In addition, Turkey is trying to rein in Armenia, to bind Azerbaijan to itself, to negotiate with Iran, and at the same time show the teeth of the United States and Russia. Europe, too, is beginning to dictate terms. Finally, Ankara seeks to spread its influence over the countries of the post-Soviet space with the Turkic population.
What to do in such a difficult situation?
As Vladimir Lepyokhin noted in the press center "Parliamentary newspaper", regional cooperation will help reduce tension in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The implementation of the “three plus three” format, which would be attended by the major players in the region, could push Baku and Yerevan into dialogue: “The solution to the conflict is to create a“ three plus three ”format, where the first group of countries is Azerbaijan, Turkey and Kazakhstan, the second is Russia, Armenia and Iran.
According to the expert, the countries could ensure compliance with the agreements, and regional cooperation “would push Baku and Yerevan to start a dialogue on the future of the region.” The political scientist recalled that the position of Russia is precisely in the development of regional unions.
It cannot be said that the idea of the “three plus three” format drew approval from the experts. “The format does not include the participation of France, most likely, Armenia will not agree to this,” Mikhail Yemelyanov said at the round table. - In addition, the scheme does not provide for the participation of the United States. We may not invite them, but it is obvious that the influence of Americans on the region is enormous. ”
Separately, the Director of the Institute for Political Studies, Sergey Markov, who also visited the press center, spoke on the prospects for resolving the conflict. "Parliamentary newspaper".
In his opinion, now there are all the prerequisites for a partial diplomatic resolution of the Karabakh conflict: Armenia and Azerbaijan have the possibility of a temporary compromise.
As noted by Markov, a partial resolution of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is possible through the implementation of the Kazan formula, developed with the assistance of Dmitry Medvedev.
“The essence of the formula,” quotes its publication, “is that Azerbaijan receives five of the seven regions around Karabakh. Armenia receives including the demilitarization of the regions, the introduction of peacekeepers at the border, which to a large extent guarantees peace. In addition, Armenia will be unblocked by Azerbaijan. ”
The expert noted that this alignment suits most of the participants in the conflict. And you can start implementing the scenario as soon as possible: “The implementation of such a scenario can be started in a couple of weeks.”
On the theme of Nagorno-Karabakh, 12 of April was expressed by the OSCE troika.
The “troika” mentioned includes the country chairing the OSCE and the chairs of the past and next year. Now the organization is chaired by Germany, in 2015, Serbia was the chairman, and in 2017, Austria will be.
In addition to the "troechnik", the event was attended by OSCE Secretary General Lamberto Zannier.
Meeting participants, reports RIA News", called on the parties to the conflict to “stop the violence and stick to the truce regime”, and also stressed that “there is no military solution to the conflict”.
Recall the conflict wick in Nagorno-Karabakh was set on fire by Mikhail S. Gorbachev in February 1988: it was at that time that the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region announced its withdrawal from the Azerbaijan SSR. Later, in 1991, the establishment of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was announced in Stepanakert. During the military conflict, Azerbaijan lost control over the region.
Negotiations on the peaceful settlement of the conflict in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group have been going on for many years, starting with 1992. At the same time, the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic is not a party to international negotiations. Azerbaijan, which insists on preserving its territorial integrity, and Armenia, which defends the interests of the unrecognized republic, cannot come to an agreement.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru