Kerch parade "ahead of the curve" or "last Chinese warning"? “Kherson chaos” and escalation in LDNR
The details of the placement of the two Ukrainian divisions of the C-300PS anti-aircraft missile system in the Genichesky district of the Kherson region became known on 9 on April 2016 of the year. In Kiev, this step is justified by protecting the airspace "Square" on the border with the Republic of Crimea, while the local population of the region reports the delivery of a large arsenal of 5B55Р SAMs, which can only speak of planning the Ukrainian top of the next inadequate steps towards the stability of the peninsula
I did not have time to reach the final direct joint operation of the Armed Forces of Russia and Syria to clean up the central, eastern and northwestern provinces of Syria from the militants of the IG and Dzhebhat al-Nusra, which 2 April mysteriously even managed to develop a local offensive in the Al-Iss area “Inactive” Syrian units, as quite unexpectedly, the next stage of the escalation of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic broke out, where Azerbaijan, which provoked the bloodshed, was already calmly using multiple launch rocket systems “Smerch” shit. This was announced yesterday by the Minister of Defense of Armenia Artsrun Hovhannisyan.
There should be absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the etiology of this phase of aggravation in the Transcaucasian theater of military action is not so much ethnopolitical as it is of an intelligence character hiding under the mask of the long-standing intercommunal enmity of Azerbaijanis with Armenians. And thus the “intelligence officer” here is the “cunning” NATO conglomerate in the form of Turkey and the United States, as you look closely: the date for the resumption of hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic coincides with the decisive events for our country taking place, for example, in the SAR; Yes, and such a scale of conflict in the NKR has not been observed 22 year. It is very easy with the help of “indignant” Azerbaijan by military-technical methods to assess the combat capability and preparedness of the Armenian Armed Forces and the likely actions of the military contingent deployed at the 102 Russian military base in Armenian Gyumri, from which later lay down a clear picture of the CSTO south-western defensive capability. And from this it is possible to plan further tactics against the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus, where both Turkey and Azerbaijan, “warmed up” by Erdogan, and Georgia militarized by Washington, can be the main bridgeheads; there may be several dozen models of development of the situation. To clarify the response and capabilities of the Russian army in this region, the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be easily prolonged for a long time. But today we will return to the review of an equally important and unpredictable tactical situation that is now evolving around Novorossia and in the Kherson region, directly on the Crimean border.
KHERSON MASS UNLIMITED: THE INADEQUATION OF THE COMMANDING OF THE MAT, THE NATIONALISTS, FOREIGN PMCs AND THE IG MILITERS HAVE TURNED THE AREA INTO THE PRE-SCALATION ANKLAV
The undermining of power lines by Crimean Tatar nationalists and militants of the Right Sector 22 in November 2015 from a politico-military point of view is only “leaves” compared to those “berries” that began to be observed in the Kherson region in the first quarter of this year. First, Poroshenko signed last year gave the green light to numerous foreign mercenaries, who today massively arrive both on the line of demarcation between the occupied territories of LDNR and the controlled lands of Novorossia, and on the Russian-Crimean border in the Kherson region.
Among them you can meet Turks, Romanians, Georgians and Danes with washed European media with brains that are ready to spend part of their lives in the impoverished southern region of Ukraine for a certain fee, defying in front of Kiev and local military criminal formations. This contributed to the fact that the criminogenic situation in the region has changed beyond recognition and has become a threat to the local population. In a practically uncontrollable area, looting, violence and drug trafficking flourish; it even reached the point when the civilian armed forces of Ukraine, intoxicated, were beaten up by the military. First without weapons on the hands, absolutely no way able to resist inadequate armed "dill". For example, at the end of the previous year, the population tried to form several self-defense detachments in the Kalachinsky district of the region. People armed themselves, practiced tactics of action in case of an attack on their property (transport, real estate and livestock are the main sources of income for VSUshnikov, nationalists, etc.), but due to low training, lack of rifles and machine guns, as well as quantitative superiority of militants which, in order to save their own lives, they have to cooperate with the local bodies of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, these self-defense units did not develop as they were completely defenseless, and in the event of an uprising they would be destroyed in a matter of hours.
It has long been known that the Crimean-Tatar gangs of Chubarov, Islyamov and Dzhemilev, and everything that is at least a little connected with the anti-Russian Majlis, is funded directly from Turkey. And therefore, it was not a big surprise for the appearance in Kherson region of 700 of the militants of the Turkish radical formation Gray Wolves, as well as a branch of the terrorist organization ISIS, whose tentacles had already spread to Dnepropetrovsk. The south, the center and the south-east of Ukraine, plunging into poverty of atrocious prices for housing and communal services and foodstuffs, is already beginning to suffer from the dominance of alien ethnic groups setting their own rules here, so far only at the level of their camps. As it became known 6 of April, such a camp for beginners igilovtsev long been operating near Dnepropetrovsk. About this on the radio "France-Inter", with reference to the main Sbushnik Vasily Gritsak, said French Senator Natalie Goulet after the tragedy in Belgium. Interestingly, “super-civilized” Europe almost did not react at all to the information that in a state that participates in the advisory referendum on association with the European Union, a snake in the form of DAISH, “Gray Wolves”, etc., was warmed on its chest. So this is only one thing - there can be no talk of any association; in any case, the matter will not progress beyond the level of consultation.
But on the basis of this information, the alarming data that “floated” into the network thanks to the hard work of CyberBerkut last week looks even more plausible.
Over the past few months, Poroshenko has already had several meetings with Erdogan, Davutoglu and other representatives of the Turkish leadership. Such frequent and “warm”, as the Ukrainian media say, receptions were not observed even once. And under the whole of this foreign political masquerade CyberBerkut announces the appearance of the draft Poroshenko’s decree on the formation of the so-called Crimean Tatar National Autonomy in the territories of Kherson and Crimea, where Meskhetian Turks will be settled. Kherson is supposed to be renamed Khan Girey, and on the territory of autonomy itself, up to 36% (200 thousand) Meskhetian Turks (the total number in the Caucasus and CIS countries - up to 550 thousand people), as well as 500 thousand Crimean Tatars. It is likely that it is in this decree that the 50 million-dollar loan provided by Turkey and the sending of trained Turkish militants to the Donbass and assistance in the form of military camping and assault equipment for the APU for 809,7 thousand dollars are manifested; But Ukraine’s payment for this is not settled in a trillion dollars. However, before that, Pete Valtsmanu, who had already prepared for flight to one of the most prosperous European countries or straight to the USA, grabbed multibillion-dollar incomes from business (including Roshen), “hovering” in offshore regions of Panama and Belize. In Ukraine, the alignment is roughly clear, but if the whole gang of frightened ones do not restrain their utopian ambitions for the “Crimean Peninsula as part of a certain Meskhetian-Crimean Tatar autonomy,” then this alignment will undergo very serious changes. And, as we see, no one refuses these ambitions.
AT THIS TIME, THE TEAM OF THE UNIVERSITY OF THE UNIVERSITY UNDERTAKES EACH DAYS FOR ITS LONGER EXISTENCE: "THE KHERSON FOURTHS" AND ETHELONS OF BTVT AT RADENSK STATION
At a time when on the sidelines of the foreign policy game there is a real division of the Kherson region between Crimean Tatars and radical Turkish groups that have business in common with Erdogan, the AFU command "is not wasting time" and is preparing the region for irreparable. In the wake of the near and utopian ideas about the “return of Crimea by military means”, within six months several hundred railway platforms with large-caliber artillery installations, MLRS, MBT, BMP, armored personnel carriers arrived in the Kherson region. Now their number near the border with Crimea may approach one hundred or more units, the remaining two hundred are distributed and covered in various regions of the region. It is noteworthy that if previously the junta troops pulled in mainly old samples tank vehicles (the main tank was the T-64BV), the last train of 50 platforms, which passed through the railway station Radensk a few days ago, was distinguished by the presence of the upgraded T-64BM “Bulat” (the contours characteristic of the “Knife” dynamic protection are visible in the photos taken) , also on the platforms there were at least two or three dozen 100-mm MT-12 Rapira anti-tank guns with trucks, ammunition and personnel. The amount is very impressive, which may take some time to destroy all equipment, if Kiev still decides to aggression. A forecast of the likely tactics of the junta’s actions on this miniature theater can be made by looking at the characteristics of their equipment, as well as the features of the terrain in the Crimean border.
Since the times of the First and Second World Wars, it is known that the Perekop isthmus is the most convenient for a possible attack on the Crimea. But one has only to imagine the fatal situation of the Ukrainian Bulaty and other armored vehicles when attempting to occupy Perekop or, in extreme cases, to overcome the Tatar Moat, problems of the offensive operation of the German 54 Army Corps of General Hansen under the direction of Field Marshal Erich von Mashtein in September - October 1941 of the year may seem like a trifle for the Ukrainian junta. Yes, and what to argue here, when the Reds at the beginning of 1920, by the forces of 2's divisions, five times tried unsuccessfully to repel Perekop and Armyansk from the white infantry (corps) of General Sashchev, who 10 times numerically inferior to the Bolshevik divisions. So difficult from a tactical point of view, the land area between the Crimea and the Kherson region is the Perekop Isthmus today. But it is especially important for the technologically backward and tactically nevozkovannoy Ukrainian army.
Considering that somewhere in the vicinity of Makarovka and Chervonny Shepherd (Kherson region), several dozen MLRS Grad, Uragan and Smerch can be hidden, platforms with which have already been observed at many railway stations on the way to the border with Crimea, Kiev can bear the “barbaric” method of offensive action, typical of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which consists in breaking through Bulat tank columns under the guise of rocket artillery, which can strike directly at Perekop and Armyansk, and at railway and road junctions near and villages south of Armyansk to deter the approach of the main land units of the Black Sea fleet and SV. Speaking of the Rapira anti-tank guns, which are also deployed at the border, it should be noted that their ability to combat modern Russian MBTs (whose equivalent resistance to BOPs starts from 780 mm and from COP to 1100) is negligible even with regard to the application the new Ukrainian 100-mm anti-tank guided missile Stugna, which was developed on the basis of the Soviet 9K116 Kastet. And what the attempts to "rush" into the Republic of Crimea with the use of "Grads" and artillery will lead to, they do not even imagine, and are not going to delve into it, because the main goal is to set fire to a military conflict at the request of the United States, in which they will take part all the "dregs" of the Middle East and Eastern Europe, strongly supported by NATO weapons.
But all these plans will not come true, and Ukraine itself will finally undergo significant reformatting. It is absolutely obvious that in this case a direct confrontation with the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be required, accompanied by offensive actions of the Russian grouping of troops in the Crimea on strategically important directions on the territory of Ukraine. Even on the approaches to Perekop, a “march” of Ukrainian T-64BM “Bulat” and other equipment will be stopped with the help of self-propelled X-TRUM 9К123 “Chrysanthemum-S” and dozens of calculations “Cornet-E”. All the MLRS will be very quickly destroyed by similar Russian systems, since the targeting obtained by the counter-battery radar and the ORTR Tu-214P aircraft is several times more accurate than the one that the APU units can receive. The complete superiority of Russia in the field of conducting the SWCNO will give its result in the very first hours of possible Ukrainian aggression.
It is known that the Ukrainian Air Command "South" launched C-300PS division in the southern part of the Kherson region, which, according to some information from the "Square", will be used to close the airspace over Simferopol on the eve of the May holidays. But this is another schizophrenic idea of the Ukrainian General Staff: the maximum range of an 5B55Р anti-aircraft guided missile (used in C-300PS) is 75 km, which is not enough to destroy airplanes over Simferopol, because from Aleksandrovka (Kalanchak district, Kherson region), Chongar (in the center of Sivash), the distance to Simferopol exceeds 125 km. Military and civilian aircraft taking off from Simferopol airport cannot be intercepted not by the outdated C-300PS modifications, but even by the more long-range C-300PMU-1, since in this case the aircraft is at a low altitude, which makes it difficult to intercept in the long-range zone complex. If we add here the “Khibiny”, placed on the pylons of each Su-30CM, belonging to the 43-th separate naval assault regiment of the Black Sea Fleet, the Ukrainian calculations on the “Three Hundreds” will see nothing at all.
Another thing is that in the case of aggressive actions of Kiev, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation for operational actions on Ukrainian territory will be required aviation multi-purpose tactical and helicopter support, which will require the complete suppression of any manifestations of air defense in the Kherson region. Some experts are sure that Ukraine still has 30 S-300PT / PS divisions, which are capable of carrying out a rather robust defense of vast areas of the country, but the number of systems suitable for operation leaves much to be desired (no more than 10-15 units), this is explained by the absence of the production technical base for the maintenance and modernization of such vital elements of the complex as the 30N6 missile defense system and the 5N63S combat control center; nothing is known about the state of the 5V55R missile interceptors, the operational life of which expired several years ago. Consequently, the lower boundary of the affected area remains at the same level (20 - 25 meters), and the complex can be destroyed by various methods. OTRK Iskander-E deployed in the southern part of the Crimean peninsula will be able to cope with the task. The 9M723 operational-tactical ballistic missiles of the Iskander-E complex in the final section of the trajectory approach the target at a speed of about 3,2 M, performing anti-aircraft maneuvers with overloads of up to 30 units. 5B55P missiles are not able to intercept such a difficult target, since they have a G-limit that barely reaches 30G, and when intercepting such an object, more than 50 units are needed. Also, the defense of the Ukrainian "Three Hundreds" can be "opened" with the help of new cruise missiles of the Iskander-K complex located on the territory of the Krasnodar Territory. The work of the Iskanders can be carried out in parallel with the launches of X-58U anti-radar missiles from Su-30SM multipurpose fighters.
As a result, regardless of the number of C-300PS delivered by Kiev, the air defense of the southern part of Ukraine will be suppressed as soon as possible and the phase of the ground operation in the Kherson and Odessa regions will begin, the purpose of which will be, firstly, the destruction of specially motivated Ukrainian, Turkish and the Crimean Tatar radicals, and secondly, stripping of the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will continue to obey the "top" of the Kiev security officials. Simultaneously with the special operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the south of Ukraine, the situation in the Donbas will finally move away from the “swamp” that is now observed. Meanwhile, in the Crimea, intently watching the situation on the border from the Kherson region, no one is idle.
At the end of January 2016, Oleg Salyukov, Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces of Russia, announced the possibility of transferring to the Crimean Peninsula an additional large group of SVs that would complement the combat capabilities of the 810-th separate marine brigade, 112-th brigade of coastal defense of the Black Sea Fleet of Russia , as well as the 126 artillery regiment of the Black Sea Fleet. All these military units are undergoing large-scale modernization, equipped with the latest models of light and heavy armored vehicles, artillery, self-propelled and portable air defense systems and reconnaissance equipment, for which more than ten billion rubles have been allocated. Their capabilities are quite enough to “slap”, demoralized by the strikes of “Night Hunters” and “Alligators” from the 8 th helicopter regiment, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still on the outskirts of Perekop. The statement of Colonel-General Salyukov sounded precisely when the active phase of the Ukrainian armored vehicles was launched to the Crimean border, but in Kiev they did not pay attention to it, after which a completely adequate response followed.
Exit armored vehicles from the port of Kerch
In early April, in the port of Kerch began regular unloading arriving through the strait armored vehicles of the Airborne Forces and the MP. Eyewitnesses report that a small number of armored personnel carriers and trucks arriving in large numbers stop at a large military camp deployed to prepare for the Victory Day parade and the Day of the liberation of Kerch, the rest of the equipment should be half-empty camp. Everything looks very revealing, on the verge of a “last warning” for Kiev, especially since the Kerch garrison was always enough for big holidays. It is quite obvious that the entire military grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on the peninsula is also being prepared to repel a possible threat from Ukraine. Moreover, if the ground divisions of the Black Sea Fleet already existing in the southern subject of Russia are enough to block the frantic Ukrainian militants at the Sivash border, then new brigades can play a major role in defeating the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the south of Ukraine, all of the offensive tasks are assigned to them. While in the Kherson region the situation gradually and confidently “flies off the coils”, in the Donbas everything is much more complicated and more catastrophic: extensive combat reports on social networks and on Internet resources of Novorossia change every 3-5 hours.
VSN WAITING FOR THE ORDER: THE LIBERATION OF THE WEDDING AND THE TACTICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE EXIT TO THE KURAKHOHOV - THE GLOBE - THE WAVES
The last two months, the Yasinovatsky checkpoint (YaBP) is the hottest point of the Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration of the DPR. Located at the strategically important road junction “Donetsk-Horlivka”, the Yasinovatsky checkpoint is the main northwest boundary of the DPR army, reliably blocking the capital of the republic from the fire of small arms and artillery armament of the Ukrainian Armed Forces direct-fire in residential areas. At the moment, the soldiers of the Vostok brigade responsible for this operational direction are tasked with clearing the Ukrainian formations of the industrial zone (among the population and the military "promka") located between Yasinovataya and Old Avdiivka (along Yasinovsky lane). The close proximity of the location of the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the fortified area of the Armed Forces of the DPR on the YSPB creates for the militia members the most difficult combat conditions in which any extra movement or misstep often leads to injury or death. In just one month of fighting at the Yasinovatsky checkpoint, “Vostok” lost 13 military, and around 100 were seriously injured, but now the fighting does not subside. The last days of the YaBP round-the-clock are bombarded with 152-mm OB-shells from SAU 2С3 "Acacia", howitzers 2А65 "Msta-B" and self-propelled guns 2С5 "Hyacinth-C", even the great Christian feast of Blessing was not an exception. The Yasinovatsky checkpoint has long ceased to be visited by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, whose pro-Western representatives more and more often abstract themselves from covering moments of the worst violation of the “Minsk agreements” by Ukrainians. And the agreements themselves actually ceased to operate on January 1 of 2016, no fundamental documents were signed. And speaking directly, “Minsk-2” not only turned into an “empty place” on the military-political arena of Novorossia because of its non-compliance with Kiev, but became a real headache for the units of the DPR army and the peaceful population of the republic. The militia did not have time to “knock out” the firing lines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the western outskirts of Donetsk-Makeevka agglomeration (Avdiivka, Marinka and Krasnogorovka) and move them even to Krasnoarmeysk, from which Donetsk would be out of reach of the junta’s barrel and rocket artillery of the junta, precisely because of the entry into the power of the document arrangements. Today, in view of the “Minsk failure”, such tasks are once again beginning to be on the agenda of the Ministry of Defense of the DPR.
The defeat of the 58-th APU motorized infantry brigade, entrenched in Avdiivka, is just a matter of time. Most of it is hiding in the residential quarters of Old Avdiivka and on the western outskirts of the industrial zone, so the DPR aircraft in urban areas can only be used by assault units equipped with small arms, RPGs, anti-tank systems and light armored vehicles. Such tactics will require tremendous efforts and a lot of time, since the Ukrainian Armed Forces, having a huge arsenal of ammunition and light armored vehicles, can supply the 58 brigade along the Krasnoarmeisk-Ocheretino-Avdeevka railway line and the Selidovo-Orlovka-Avdeevka railway line. In order to “block” the oxygen of this brigade, it is necessary to thoroughly damage the railways in the area of the settlement. Ocheretino or Novogrodovka, and the segment of the route "Orlovka-Avdiivka" should be under long artillery shelling in the fields under the town of Lastochkino. It is then that “58-I” will begin to really get exhausted and later retreat from Avdiivka. There are plenty of ammunition and artillery systems for the DPR Armed Forces, but the whole clue for their use lies in the fact that the APU first went on an attempt to break through the defense line in the Yasinovatsky checkpoint using Gradov and Uragans, so that the OSCE and others “Clowns” there were no longer any arguments in favor of the Ukrainian army, because, paradoxically, only the army of Novorossia adheres to the last drop of patience of non-existent agreements, “keeping the brand” always and in everything.
The cleansing of Avdiivka will stop the torment, repression and incessant “raid stripping” by the Ukrainian police and the nationalist battalions of the peaceful population of the city, as well as provide the first two years of restful sleep to the Donetsk people. But the liberation of the entire territory of the former Donetsk region from the Armed Forces of Ukraine will remain a primary task for the BCH, from which a network of cities representing the greatest strategic value for the long-awaited reunification of the entire republic can be noted on the Donbas map.
This is known in the DPR, but is very rarely mentioned in military reviews and reports of the Donetsk and Russian military correspondents. The elimination of the “Telmanovsky Isthmus” is a very important step in preserving the integrity and vitality of the DNR army, and also plays a crucial role in the offensive operation on the Mariupol ON. In previous articles, I have repeatedly raised the topic of “Telmanovsky Isthmus” as an extensive operational-strategic formation on the southern front of the DPR, and it remains so today. The area controlled by units of the Armed Forces of the DPR has a width of 35 km and a length of 50 km; its western borders extend (from north to south) from the settlement of Starognatka to Shirokino. Due to the shallow depth of the rear zone (35 km to the border), the front of the DPR army can be temporarily “broken through” by the numerically superior group of troops “M” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which can interfere with the transport communication between the Donetsk and southern groups of troops in the Donetsk Republic. This may cause a weakening of the republic’s units located in the Novoazovskiy region (the coast of the Azov Sea), which must work exclusively in the Mariupol operational direction, and then along the entire coast of the sea. The result of the elimination of the “Telmanovsky Isthmus” can be a “double victory” of the DPR. What is its essence?
A total of 17 km from the Petrovsky district of Donetsk is the most important tactical milestone for the Armed Forces of the DPR - the city of district significance Kurakhovo. After the start of the active phase of the confrontation in the Donbass, when the militia will have to launch a counter-offensive, Marinka will become the first city liberated before Kurakhovo, and it is not just now that this suburb of Donetsk Kiev Kiev pulls up the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine supervised by sniper the fire on the adjacent Petrovsky district increased several times. The reinforcement area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Marinka is being strengthened and improved precisely for the defense of Kurakhovo.
The tactical value of Kurakhovo is simply unique. The city is located on the southern bank of the Kurakhovsky reservoir, which is a natural barrier against the possible advance of the superior forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from Selidovo (from the north). The width of the reservoir is from 1 to 2 km, the length is slightly more than 11; In addition, there is a small river Wolf. No Ukrainian MBT or BMD can successfully overcome this reservoir; with the storming of the river, which has many artificial tributaries and channels, the armored vehicles of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will also have many problems, since the equipment will be under the open sky and will be instantly discovered and destroyed by anti-tank units and artillery of the DPR army deployed on the south-western bank of the Kurakhovsky reservoir. Fortified in Kurakhovo, the fortified area of the Armed Forces of the DPR will become an excellent “starting point” for an offensive operation in the western and southern directions, with the southern IT being the first priority.
The next city after Kurakhovo to be liberated from the Ukrainian junta could be Ugledar. It is located in 23 km south of Kurakhovo, on the highway "Great Novosyolovka - Novotroitskoe." The track plays a huge role in supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces with a group of regular artillery shelling of the city of Dokuchaevsk and Yelenovka, as well as taking part in provocative shelling of civilian vehicles from RPGs and small arms. From Ugledar, the units of the DPR army, together with the forces from Dokuchaevsk and Starobeshevo, will quickly “clean up” Novotroitsky from the 53 th OMBr and begin to close the “Volnovakhsky cauldron”. The “capture” of Novotroitsky, as well as of other small settlements, will be made really very quickly, since the facts about the accumulation of a huge number of Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel right in the fields near Dokuchaevsk, and in the open air, the APU did not have exactly no advantage in terms of disguise. At the time of the attack, it will be destroyed from the MLRS and T-25B militia. Due to the absence of large settlements with a developed infrastructure of almost the entire length from Donetsk to Mariupol, the DNR troops’s offensive will be fairly smooth. The only exception will be Volnovakha.
During 2, the location of Volnovakhi under the control of the junta troops, the city itself, as well as its environs, were “pumped up” not only by VSUshniki, but also by militants of the right-wing organization Right Sector, with whom the first did not confront once. The last incident occurred at the beginning of September 2015, when the chairman of the district administration, V. Luginets, attempted to disband the local council with the help of armed Pravosek, but the plan was frustrated by VSUS. Now the conflict between the militarized junta formations in Volnovakha is temporarily exhausted, and the city itself is the third (in number) reference points of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the occupied territory of the DPR. The “cleansing” of this city will require a thorough reconnaissance operation (with the help of the UAV and the local population) of the positions of the APU equipment in Volnovakha itself, where, first of all, the base sites of multiple launch rocket systems (there are dozens of them) must be opened. During the escalation of the conflict in 2014-2015, the Ukrainian BM-21 “Grad” created enormous difficulties for the offensive of the Armed Forces of the DPR in a number of operational areas. It is worth watching only the exclusive report of Evgeny Poddubny for 30 January 2015 of the closed “Debaltsevskiy boiler”, when the “Grads” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, still in Debaltseve, were ironed by NURSami Uglegorsk smoked from the junta. Similar can be predicted with confidence when taking Volnovakhi.
In Volnovakha, a rectangular layout of urban neighborhoods prevails, as well as the commercial and residential structure of urban developments. On the one hand, it contributes to a wide choice of tactical maneuvers by the attacking side, and also facilitates the defeat of enemy firing points in ordinary low-rise buildings, whose walls are not built of fortified concrete. On the other hand, it allows the enemy to organize a large selection of defensive tactics and facilitated the transfer of military units between the city’s quarters. Due to the passage of the Mariupol-Donetsk railway, Volnovakha is actually divided into large areas of the 2, which often leads to a delay in the combat operation. In our case, the enemy (APU) may gain a foothold in the western part of the city. Another important point will be the "squeezing" of the artillery of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the height adjacent to the Volnovakha - Mount Goncharich's Grave (278 m). If the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of the DPR really goes at the same time as the Kurakhovsky, Starobeshevsky and Telman ONs, the Volnovakhsky Cauldron will really shut down quite quickly, and at the same time the Achilles heel of the Southern Front of the Donetsk People's Republic - the Telmansky Isthmus - will disappear.
After the “expulsion” of the Ukrainian troops from the settlements surrounding Volnovakha from the west (Kirillovka, Ivanovka and Zlatoustovka), the depth of the rear zone on the southern front of the DPR will increase exactly 2 times (from 35 to 70 km), after which the constant shelling of the villages of Telmanovsky district from barreled artillery will stop.
The second victory of the DPR army after the elimination of the above isthmus is the final ousting of the Armed Forces of Ukraine "into the fields", i.e. outside the major settlements of the Donetsk Republic. There, the Ukrainian army does not have a developed military infrastructure, powerful fortified areas and other military-tactical advantages, and therefore there is only one thing left for it - more likely to carry away the legs in the direction of the Zaporozhye and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
A further point of the offensive operation of the VSN, no doubt, will be the liberation of the city of Mariupol, which will initially be taken into a "half-boiler" organized by a mixed grouping of the DPR Armed Forces from the Volnovakha direction with the support of the Mariupol-Khingan 9th OMSP Marine Corps and a separate Typhoon reconnaissance company, responsible for Mariupol ON at sea and on land. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are already perfectly aware of the consequences of attempts to conduct an offensive on the LPNR with simultaneous provocations on the Crimean border: the inevitable loss of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions will follow, a complete restoration historical borders of Novorossiya, the final defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the fall of the Kiev regime.
In detail about the military situation in Mariupol and on the coast of the Azov Sea will be discussed in our next publications, as the aggravation on the southern face of the DPR. And today, after the “raid-stripping” among the population by the punitive battalion “Donbass” and local Interior Ministry bodies in the eastern districts of Mariupol, with surprising coincidence, the Ukrainian artillery began intensively striking attacks on the border villages of the DPR in the south of the republic.
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