Russia maintains leading position in the global MBT market
T-90 is a recognized leader in the global tank market.
After a glut in the market tankssold at dumping prices in the 1990s, the armored industry is once again experiencing a peculiar boom. The importance of using tanks in modern military theaters has been reaffirmed during a US military operation in Iraq.
Nevertheless, the debate about the place and role of the MBT in modern armies continues, and above all, in the United States itself.
Earlier, the United States planned to abandon the use of armored units by 2030, moving first to the Stryker combat brigade groups, and then to the new concept of “Fighting systems of the future.”
Proceeding from the fact that the future US Army will predominantly have the character of “expeditionary”, a number of congressmen and the military believe that there will be no need to have a large number of heavy armored vehicles like MBT. In their opinion, despite the fact that the Abrams MBT M1A2 SEP "Abrams" is one of the most modern models weapons US Army, the preservation of the minimum production of tanks in the conditions of the projected tasks solved by the army of the future, is not economically feasible. In this regard, according to a number of military and influential members of the US Congress, the option of closing production lines for assembling Abrams tanks in order to save money is not ruled out. However, according to most experts, closing Abrams production lines is economically unprofitable , because the resumption of production (if necessary) will require 4 times more money than its curtailment. Evidence that the continuation of the production of MBT prevails is the fact that in July 2011, the US Army requested $ 31 million to upgrade the next batch of tanks Abrams M1A2 SEP.
In addition, for example, ATK is continuing to develop a new M829E4 sub-caliber tank shot as part of a three-year program worth $ 77 million. M829E4 is an Abrams 120-mm sub-caliber projectile designed for the M1A2 SEP “Abrams” core. The new shot represents the fifth generation of ammunition. It provides for the defeat of tanks with active protection at long ranges.
According to TSAMTO, the US Army is likely to abandon plans to de-commission the main battle tanks МХNUMXА1 "Abrams" and continue the program of their further modernization to the level М2А1 with the extension of service life to 3.
LOCATION OF MBT IN THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF GLOBAL EXPORT OF AUDIO EQUIPMENT
The role of MBT in modern theaters is also confirmed by large programs implemented by a number of countries to modernize and improve existing fleets of tanks. These are both national programs and import purchases.
High rates of production of MBT for export confirms statistics. For example, for the past four-year period (2007-2010), the volume of world exports of new MBT, according to TSAMTO, amounted to $ 7,956 billion. According to this indicator, MBT takes second place, second only to the category “new armored vehicles” ($ 10,35 billion) , and significantly ahead of the category "new armored fighting vehicles" ($ 4,507 billion).
Moreover, it should be noted that in the MBT category there is the highest share (14% of the total market value) among the three types of armored vehicles for upgrading and repairing vehicles, the value of which is not included in this calculation, since these programs do not pass by price parameters as new ones. For comparison: in the category of “armored cars”, this indicator (in terms of value) is 0,4%, for BBM - 10%.
In general, in the period from 2007 to 2010, the volume of world exports of MBT (including the supply of new tanks, licensed programs, supplies from the Armed Forces, all modernization and repair programs) is estimated by TSAMTO at $ 9,254 billion. For BBM, this amount (also with all programs) $ 5,012 billion, for armored vehicles - $ 10,39 billion
In the upcoming four-year period (2011-2014), if the schedules for current contracts, licensed programs and tenders are fulfilled, the global volume of new MBT exports will be $ 5,87 billion. For comparison, the forecast for the category of new BBM over the same period is $ 9,692 billion. ., armored cars - $ 4,11 billion. Moreover, in the category MBT, the highest value share will remain in shipments from the Armed Forces, modernization and repair, the value of which is not included here.
In addition, in the MBT category, a number of agreements are being prepared for signing, part of the supplies under which can be implemented in the period under review. These programs are not taken into account in this calculation, since they are still considered as intentions.
Tanks "Abrams" from the best side proved themselves during the war in Iraq.
WORLDWIDE MBT MARKET IN 2007-2014
In the ranking of TSAMTO by the number of planned to supply new main battle tanks in 2011-2014. Russia with a large margin from the competition will take first place.
In the case of the implementation of schedules for current contracts, licensed programs, stated intentions and tenders held, the volume of export of MBT by Russia in 2011-2014. will be 688 units worth $ 1,979 billion, which is mainly provided by large contracts with India for the licensed assembly and production of MBT T-90С.
For comparison: in the past four-year period (2007-2010), Russia supplied for export (including licensed programs) 603 MBT in the amount of $ 1,879 billion.
In general, the volume of Russian exports of MBT in the period 2007-2014. estimated at 1291 machine worth $ 3,858 billion
The ground forces of India are the largest customer of the Russian MBT. Russia is implementing with this country a long-term program for the production of MBT T-90С. In 2006, an agreement was signed on licensed production in India for 2019. 1000 MBT T-90С. The cost of the entire program is estimated at $ 2,5 billion.
Russia has fully completed the transfer of the manufacturing technology of OBT T-90С to the Indian MIC at the end of 2008, which allows for the full cycle of manufacturing T-90С tanks in India. At the HVF (Heavy Vehicle Factory) plant in Avadi 24 on August 2009, the ceremony of handing over the first batch of 10 MBT T-90C (Indian designation “Bishma”) completely constructed in India within the framework of the licensed agreement. The transferred tanks entered service with the 73 th regiment of the Indian Army.
According to the plans, from 2010 the HVF firm in Avadi should annually issue a T-100C OBT license under 90. That is, Russia, even in the absence of new contracts, will dominate in this segment of the Indian market at least until 2020.
Indian tank "Arjun".
In addition to the license agreement, a number of contracts for the supply of MBT T-90C were signed. The first contract worth about $ 800 million (36,250 billion rupees) for the supply of 310 MBT T-90 Russia signed with India in 2001, 124 MBT were delivered ready. Another 186 tanks from this batch were assembled at the HVF enterprise from the vehicle sets supplied by Uralvagonzavod. 30 November 2007. The government of India entered into a new major contract with Russia worth 49 billion rupees ($ 1,2366 billion) for the purchase of 347 MBT T-90С, including the 124 tank in fully assembled form and 223 units in the form of vehicle sets. In May, 2009 India signed an agreement with Russia for an additional 50 delivery of the MBT T-90C vehicle sets.
T-90 tanks will gradually replace outdated models, including T-55 and earlier versions of T-72. In total, the 2020 of the Indian Armed Forces plans to receive the 1700 MBT T-90C.
The purchase of tanks is implemented as part of the plan for the formation of the 21 regiment, equipped with the MBT T-90С and 40 regiments, armed with which will be the modernized T-72М1 "Ajaia". According to current plans for 2020, the total number of MBT T-90С and T-72М1 in service with the Indian Army is about 3800 units.
Ukrainian tank "Oplot".
Further purchases of MBT T-90С can be implemented by increasing their production under the license agreement for 1000 MBT T-90С. This is possible if India has problems with the implementation of the program for the production of nationally-produced tanks “Arjun Mk1” and “Arjun Mk2”, as well as with a delay in the implementation of the program to develop a national generation MBT.
In the framework of the visit to Russia in March of this year, the delegation of the heavy engineering plant HVF held negotiations on the agreement and signing of contract documents for the supply of components in 2011-2012. at the request of the Indian side. During the meeting, issues of mutual cooperation concerning the T-90 MBT program were discussed. At present, Russian specialists are assisting in the licensed production of large-scale assemblies of T-90С products and their warranty support in the troops.
In addition to India, in the period under review, the recipients of the Russian MBT were Azerbaijan, Algeria, Venezuela, Cyprus, Syria, Turkmenistan and Uganda. According to a report submitted by Russia to the UN Register for 2010 for the supply of conventional weapons and military equipment, the category “battle tanks” declared the delivery of 20 MBT India and 27 MBT Cyprus.
Thus, Russia completed deliveries of India to finished products under a contract from 2007 for 347 MBT T-90С in the amount of $ 1,237 billion (2008 MBT was delivered in 24, 2009 units in 80, 2010 in 20) units). The remaining tanks, in accordance with the contract, will be produced under license in India.
The Cyprus Ministry of Defense in 2009 signed a contract for the supply of the National Guard 41 MBT T-80 / UK with a value of $ 156 million. According to the report, 2010 MBT was supplied to 27. The remaining cars, apparently, were transferred at the beginning of this year.
In 2010, the media reported on the delivery of six MBT T-90Cs to Turkmenistan, however, Russia did not provide this data to the UN Register. In May, the 2011 of the Russian Federation delivered the first batch of X-NUMX main battle tanks T-35B72 to Venezuela. In September 1, the president of Venezuela, Hugo Chavez announced the purchase of a total of X-NUMX T-2009 tanks in Russia.
A feature of the global MBT market in the period 2007-2014. will be a significant strengthening of the position of China. Currently, the People's Republic of China is in the TSAMTO rating for the 2007-2014 period. while 4 takes place (298 MBT worth about $ 662,5 million).
China’s access to the global MBT market was ensured by the joint MBT-2000 tank project with Pakistan, which was also shipped to Morocco and Myanmar. There is no detailed information on the amount of MBT that Pakistan will purchase in the coming years (previously it was reported that it intends to make additional 300 tanks under a license), so for the time being the calculation for China has been done up to and including 2010. It is noteworthy that in the period 2007-2010. China in terms of quantitative exports of MBT came out in the ranking of TSAMTO in second place after Russia.
T-80 tanks are exported to Cyprus.
At the moment, the second place in the ranking TSAMTO for the period 2007-2014. occupy the United States (457 machines worth $ 4,971 billion). In 2007-2010 262 MBT worth $ 2,376 billion were exported in 2011-2014. the projected supply volume will be 195 MBT in the amount of $ 2,595 billion. Third place in the 2007-2014 period. ranked Germany (348 machines worth $ 3,487 billion). Germany achieved the best results in the first four-year period (2007-2010) in connection with the sale of licensed production of Leopard-2 tanks in Greece and Spain. In 2007-2010 272 MBT worth $ 2,671 billion were exported (including licensed programs) for the period 2011-2014. Germany's order book is still 76 new machines worth $ 816,6 million. Fifth place in the period 2007-2014. with the delivery of Malaysia MBT PT-91M "Tvardy" takes Poland (48 tanks in the amount of $ 368 million dollars). This contract was unexpected in the market for new cars and, most likely, it will remain the only Polish achievement in this field.
It should be noted that in the category of "tender" for the period 2011-2014. included the intention of the Thai Armed Forces to purchase a large batch of MBT. In the event that reports of a win in the competition of the Ukrainian tank Oplot are confirmed, Ukraine will take fourth place in terms of MBT export in the period of 2011-2014.
In future ratings, which take into account 2015 and beyond, South Korea will also be present with the start of production under license in Turkey of the new MBT K-2.
In general, in the period from 2007 to 2010. in the world 2950 MBT was exported in the amount of $ 9,254 billion. Of this amount, the market volume of new tanks amounted to 1483 units worth $ 7,956 billion, representing 50,27% of the total quantity and 85,97% of the total global supply.
In the upcoming four-year period (2011-2014), if the supply schedules for the current contracts, intentions and tenders are met, the projected sales of new tanks will be 1079 units worth $ 5,87 billion.
The upgraded T-72 tanks are supplied to the Venezuelan Armed Forces.
In percentage terms, the volume of the global market for new MBT in 2011-2014. compared to 2007-2010. amount to 72,8% in quantitative terms and 73,8% - in value. At the same time, it should be noted that the entire portfolio of orders for the supply of MBT for the period 2011-2014. not yet formed. Taking into account promising contracts, the volume of the global MBT market in 2011-2014. will be almost identical to the previous four-year period.
According to the TSAMTO methodology, the “new” category includes deliveries of new tanks worth at least $ 2 million, licensed programs, as well as deliveries of MBT from the Armed Forces of exporting countries upgraded to the level of new vehicles with an extended service life, the price of which at the time of delivery is more than 50% of the cost of a new tank of the same type for the same period of time.
Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Great Britain, Israel, Spain, the Netherlands, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine, Finland, the Czech Republic, Chile, Switzerland and South Korea also realized the deliveries of MBTs that are not included in the value category in the “new” category during the considered period. .
THE MOST LARGE EXPECTED PURCHASES IN THE OBT CATEGORY
Saudi Arabia. In early July this year, the German government approved the sale of Saudi Arabia’s Leopard-2 tanks. Riyadh is interested in purchasing up to 250 OBT Leopard-2. The cost of the program is estimated at 3 billion euros. In addition to the sale of tanks, a potential agreement provides for the training of personnel and the maintenance of vehicles.
Initially, negotiations on the sale of Saudi Arabia’s Leopard-2 tanks began with Spain, after which Germany intervened in the negotiations as the developer of the MBT. Negotiations on the possibility of selling Riyadh MBT, created on the basis of the project produced in Spain, tanks "Leopard-2А6", the defense ministries of the two countries began last fall. Saudi specialists were also able to familiarize themselves with the capabilities of the Leopard-2 tanks (an upgraded version of the Leopard-2A6) in Spanish test sites.
According to TSAMTO, the contract will be concluded with the Spanish company General Dynamics Santa Barbara Systems, and the German Krauss-Maffei Wegmann and Rhinemetall will act as suppliers of the main component parts.
Egypt. In July of this year, the Defense Cooperation and Security Agency (DSCA) of the United States notified the Congress of the planned sale of Abrams’s M1A1 OBRTs to Egypt, as well as contractual services and equipment worth $ 1,329 billion in the framework of the program Foreign Military Sales ".
The Egyptian government has turned to the United States with a request for the purchase of 125 assembly kits MBT M1A1 Abrams. The main contractor of the contract will be the American company General Dynamics. The program can be implemented at the Egyptian tank factory №200, where there is already an assembly production for the release of M1A1.
The distribution of market share of new tanks in 2007-2014.
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2007-2010
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2011-2014
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2007-2010
Distribution of market shares for new tanks in 2011-2014
Egypt is for the United States the main market for MBT (as India’s market for Russia). Therefore, we recall history "Tank" relationship of the two countries. According to the terms of the original agreement signed in 1988 between the USA and Egypt, the Egyptian army received 555 tanks M1A1, 25 of which were assembled in the USA by General Dynamics and Land Systems. The assembly was completed before 1996. At the beginning of 2000, General Dynamics Land Systems received a contract worth $ 156 million for the delivery of 100 MXT M1A1 MBT kits that were shipped from 2001 to 2003. In 2002, the US Army Armored Vehicle and Armament Command entered into a contract with General Dynamics for the support of assembling two Abrams parties for 141 tanks in Egypt. In 200, Egypt entered into a contract for the supply of 2004 sets of the Abrams MBNT MBNUMXA125 MBT, bringing their total number to 1 units. In 1, another batch of 880 MBTs was ordered.
Ethiopia. According to unconfirmed information, in June of this year, the Ministry of Defense of Ethiopia entered into a contract with the Ukrspetsexport group of companies for the supply of X-NUMX MBT T-200 (from the Armed Forces of Ukraine). The transaction amount is estimated at $ 72 million.
Bangladesh. The government of Bangladesh in June of this year decided to purchase 44 MBT-2000 MBT and three armored repair and recovery vehicles in China as part of an ongoing plan to modernize the country's armed forces.
Argentina. The land forces of Argentina and the Israeli company Elbit Systems in May of this year signed an agreement on the supply of equipment for the modernization of 230 TAM tanks (Tanque Argentino Mediano - Argentine Medium Tank).
Thailand. The command of the Armed Forces of Thailand in March of this year decided to purchase a batch of 200 OBT Oplot in Ukraine. The purchase price is estimated at 7 billion baht (about $ 232 million).
Tank "Leopard-2" of the Armed Forces of Canada.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the development of national MBTs of a new generation is carried out by Russia, India, Turkey, South Korea and a number of other countries. A large number of countries are working on the modernization of the most modern models of MBT in their arsenal (USA, France, Great Britain, Germany). Therefore, talking about the "decline" of the era of tanks seems premature.
Vladimir Y. SHVAREV - Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis of the World Arms Trade (TSAMTO)
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