5 April on Online The Stockholm Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) published a report on global military spending in 2015.
The document notes that military spending in the world is growing. According to analysts, global military spending in the 2015 year amounted to almost 1,7 trillion. dollars, an increase from 2014 year to 1 percentage in real terms. According to experts, this is the first increase in military spending since 2011.
Military spending continues to grow in the states of Asia and Oceania, Central and Eastern Europe, as well as in some states of the Middle East. The report also assumes the upcoming trend towards a likely increase in defense spending by Western states. Costs weapon in Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean have declined. In general, the picture of global military spending is “ambiguous”, the authors of the document say.
As before, the United States spends the most on armaments: 596 billion dollars (despite a fall in spending by 2,4%). Among the other military “pryzhir” are China (its expenses increased by 7,4%, to 215 billion dollars), Saudi Arabia (the increase in expenses by 5,7%, to 87,2 billion dollars) and Russia (an increase by 7,5% to 66,4 billion Doll.).
The report's authors explain the sharp increase in military spending in many countries over the past decade by the combination of high oil prices and the exploitation of new oil fields. However, the collapse in oil prices, which began in 2014, led to the beginning of a reversal of a fixed trend in many countries whose revenues depend on oil. Therefore, analysts are waiting for further cost reductions in the 2016 year.
Despite the decline in oil revenues, some oil exporters continued to increase the arms race in 2015. Many of these countries (Algeria, Azerbaijan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam) were somehow involved in conflicts or faced with increased regional tensions, the SIPRI website notes. And yet, Russia's military spending was lower than previously budgeted. The costs of Saudi Arabia would also have fallen, but this would have been hampered by the extra $ 5,3 billion spent on the monarchy’s intervention in the situation in Yemen. Russia and Saudi Arabia, the rapporteurs say, note that in 2016, they plan to reduce military spending.
In a special section, experts give an answer to the question: “Is the reduction of military spending in Western countries coming to an end?”
Military spending in North America and Western and Central Europe has been declining since 2009. The main reasons for the reduction are the global economic crisis and the withdrawal of most of the American and allied forces from Afghanistan and Iraq. However, in 2015, the first signs appeared that the reduction was “coming to an end”.
US military spending declined by 2,4 percent, but the rate of decline itself is much slower than they were in recent years. The slowdown is the result of measures taken by the US Congress to partially protect military spending from previously agreed measures to reduce the budget deficit. US military spending is projected to remain at about the same level in the 2016 year (in real terms).
The total military spending of the states of Western and Central Europe declined by only 2015% in 0,2. But if we take particularly the countries of Central Europe, it turns out that the cost of military needs there rose to 13 percent. Especially large growth occurred in countries bordering Russia and Ukraine - in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. These states, the report says, after the Ukrainian crisis "are most concerned about Russia's intentions."
The expenses of the group of Western European countries, on the contrary, decreased by 1,3 percent. And this is "the lowest annual decline since the recent fall in spending in the 2010 year." In addition, the UK, France and Germany have plans for a small increase in spending in the coming years. These plans came about because of concerns about Russia and the threat from the “Islamic State”.
SIPRI's military spending project leader Dr. Sam Perlo-Freeman said that military spending in 2015 showed "contrasting trends."
“On the one hand, spending trends reflect escalating conflicts and tensions in many regions of the world; on the other hand, they show a clear break with the former trend associated with oil fueling the growth of military spending over the past decade. ”
According to the expert, the fluctuating economic and political situation gives an "uncertain picture for the coming years."
Experts recorded an increase in military spending in the states of Asia and Oceania. They grew in 2015 by 5,4 percent, mainly influenced by the Chinese factor. The heightened tensions between China and various countries in the region have contributed to a significant increase in spending in Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam. In addition, "a start has been made to reverse the long-term downtrend trend of military spending in Japan."
This year, SIPRI did not provide an estimate of data for the Middle East: data were not available for several countries. Among those countries for which data are available, costs increased by 4,1 percent. The growth of Iraq’s military spending by 536% during the 2006-2015 period is highlighted.
At the same time, military spending in Latin America and the Caribbean fell by 2,9%. This is largely due to the huge drop in costs in oil-producing Venezuela. Brazil’s military spending declined slightly as a result of the economic crisis. Meanwhile, spending continued to grow in Central America - due to the growing militarization of countries where there is a struggle against drug trafficking.
After 11 years of uninterrupted growth, defense spending in Africa has finally declined — by 5,3%. Mainly reduced costs Angola (as a result of a sharp drop in oil prices).
As the newspaper reminds Kommersant, in March 2016, Mr. V. Putin said that in 2015, Russia sold 14,5 billions of weapons, while the order book reached a record level with 1992, 56 billion. The main arms supplies were to India and Iraq.
According to Kommersant, this year special attention will be paid to Algeria, which is ready to purchase the Su-32 bombers and the Antey-2500 air defense system, as well as the implementation of the contracts concluded with China and Egypt.
Recall that SIPRI was founded in 1966 year and is an analytical center, whose employees investigate conflicts, weapons, as well as issues of arms control and disarmament.
Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
- especially for topwar.ru