Military Review

Rose glasses Kiev authorities. Who sees Russia's weakness instead of strength?

55
Many materials are written on the topic of the withdrawal of our group from Syria. And the range of these materials is so wide that a little interested reader has a dizzy head. Some media write about the implementation of the tasks. Others speak of Russia's weakness. On depletion of resources.




In principle, this is only a point of view. Everyone has the right to their own vision of what happened. Today I want to see the connection between the withdrawal of the group and the intensification of hostilities in the Donbas.

It’s no secret that for more than a week the Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to advance in the Gorlovka area. Fights are not comic. With the use of heavy artillery. And at the same time, the world community, by the way, including Russia, is silent. There is not a single statement about the breakdown of the Minsk agreements. All pretend that this is an ordinary shootout. The number of dead and wounded on both sides has long exceeded several dozen.

The only official statement that is voiced is Alexander Zakharchenko.

“We, for our part, will not allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to penetrate our positions and, moreover, will not let them take control of the Donetsk-Gorlovka road.

Currently, the APU have some advantage in manpower and technology. The ratio, according to some estimates, is one to three. Theoretically, the classic possibility of an offensive. However, the morale of the Ukrainian army is not just low. Army decays. To attack in such an environment of death is like.

Not better things in the armies of the republics. Recent events in Shirokino showed the combat effectiveness of new units. The departure of those who began two years ago and the arrival to the posts of senior officers of those who began as a sergeant significantly undermined the strength of the units.

The advantage of Novorossia is that there is an opportunity to dramatically increase the size of the army. Many former militia, when the danger becomes real, return to service. Yes, and vacationers, too.
However, the battles are coming. And for what? What is the task of these units?

Reading Ukrainian documents, you understand that the nonsense that is written there is more intended for the average man than for the military. Grab Donetsk? Or Lugansk? What means? Everyone understands that this is nonsense. Small captures of foreign positions by both sides. This is the maximum that you can hope for.

And here you can see a couple of statements by Ukrainian politicians. Not the highest echelon, but still not the last. Yevhen Marchuk, head of the security working group in the Minsk talks:

"For me, the easiest way out is to bring the text of surrender to the talks and say:" Sign, and this will all end. "

The second policy. Vladimir Yelchenko, representative of Ukraine to the UN:

"... the next step after Russia's decision to withdraw its troops from Syria will be their withdrawal from Ukraine."

In simple terms, the Ukrainian political elite perceived the withdrawal of the grouping from Syria as a weakness of Russia. And the statements of EU politicians are just another support for their own policies. And in these conditions they decided to "add" Russia.

And now we will try to present further developments.

The heads of European diplomacy in a joint statement clearly called "guilty" in the Ukrainian events. In any case, in their opinion, Russia is to blame. Search options for other culprits are not even offered. As, however, no evidence is provided.

Kiev stepped up its army. However, so far this has not caused any reaction from the United States and Europe. But not yet. For a long time it will not be able to hide. In any case, diplomats will have to admit the fact that the Minsk Agreement is undermining Kiev.

And now I’ll come back to what we are seeing for the second day. I am referring to the arrival of our combat aircraft on the home airfields. Often in the frames can be seen that the planes are painted with "front" asterisks. On some planes such stars more than two dozen!



For those who do not know, I will explain. Such a star is assigned to the crew after making 10 sorties. 10! Imagine the experience of pilots of such a crew. Battle experience!

And if you add a few words from the commander’s speech that the Russian planes never missed the entire time of the operation, then ... No matter how banal it sounds, but Russia has the strongest group of VKS. Professional, having combat experience and proven in a real war. I doubt that even American pilots can boast such professionalism.

As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for breaking agreements, Russia has not only a moral right, but also legal grounds to force one of the parties to fulfill the agreements. And this will be coercion according to the same plan as in Syria.

VKS will strike at the groups of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the army of the LC and the DPR will conduct ground operations. Accordingly, the territories of the regions will be vacated. Hike to Kiev, no matter how hard the patriots rush, is canceled. Enough release. Then Ukraine will begin to fall apart without the participation of the Donetsk people. And the more Russians.

The scenario that I drew today is quite predictable. Moreover, it is real. That is why, as it seems to me, Kerry rushes "in full sail" to Moscow. Americans are not used to losing. And so Kerry will bargain for some preferences for the United States.
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  1. Same lech
    Same lech 22 March 2016 06: 14
    +17
    Rose glasses Kiev authorities. Who sees Russia's weakness instead of strength?


    It’s only for us ... let him stay in pink saucers.
    In a crisis situation, reality will put everything in its place ...
    as one character said ... smile in our business this very realism is important.

    However, it is unlikely that KIEV would risk a widespread offensive against unrecognized republics ...
    the calculation will be made on creeping expansion, slowly squeezing militias from the occupied territories, and also contributing to the destruction of power in them with the help of those things described by the respected ROMAN SKOROROKHOV.
    1. mirag2
      mirag2 22 March 2016 06: 17
      +5
      "Wide offensive", hardly. Only with the go-ahead from Washington.
    2. Mik13
      Mik13 22 March 2016 06: 28
      +33
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      However, it is unlikely that KIEV would risk a widespread offensive against unrecognized republics ...

      Unfortunately, it is not Kiev that decides, but Washington.
      At the same time, Washington is not interested in the fate of Kiev, Ukraine and Ukrainians.

      More precisely, he is interested - but ... the more Russians die - I mean Russians as a superethnos, uniting the Great Russians, Little Russians (or Ukrainians) and Belarusians - all the better for Washington.
      1. Sailor
        Sailor 22 March 2016 16: 18
        +3
        To my great regret, you are right, I just can not understand the people of Ukraine, how it is possible to drain the brains so quickly. Whatever the Germans succeeded in the Americans, the world will only grow.
    3. 79807420129
      79807420129 22 March 2016 06: 39
      +10
      statements by politicians from the EU as another support for their own policies. And in these conditions they decided to "crush" Russia

      Did the crush grow?
    4. Finches
      Finches 22 March 2016 06: 53
      +27
      The main thing is that we do not have such "pink" looks!

      It is clear that no one will go to Kiev, and the method of South Ossetia, Transnistria, Abkhazia, which has been tested for years, will work for Donbass ... I think that Russia has already warned its Western partners that if the junta chooses a power scenario, Moscow reserves the right to recognize sovereignty DNI and LC unilaterally! Neither the USA nor Europe have an adequate answer to this! Only barking in the press and sanctions that suit few people!
  2. Good cat
    Good cat 22 March 2016 06: 20
    +5
    Ukrainian politicians are only capable of gibberish, their war is going on on Facebook, it is very convenient and foreign owners immediately see who is "watching".
    1. aba
      aba 22 March 2016 07: 07
      +1
      Ukrainian politicians are capable of only balabolstvo

      If this were true, then there would be those thousands of dead in Ukraine. Alas, sometimes they are capable of something more than ordinary balabolstvo. Let it sneak. Let with an eye on the sides, as it was at the very beginning of the conflict. And the connivance and flirting of the Russian authorities with the Novokiev regime essentially gave them carte blanche.
  3. VP
    VP 22 March 2016 06: 21
    +7
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for the failure of agreements, Russia will have not only moral law, but also legal grounds

    Does not appear.
    Fundamentally different things are to take part in hostilities at the invitation of the government of the country and "because of the breakdown of agreements." At least a decision of the UN Security Council is needed for this. And who will give it.
    1. AlNikolaich
      AlNikolaich 22 March 2016 08: 07
      +10
      Colleagues, and 080808 was the same UN mandate, to clean South Ossetia from Georgian aggression? The West grunted and calmed down! Shut up! Who said, if that, what will be different?
      1. Achilles
        Achilles 22 March 2016 09: 16
        +3
        Quote: AlNikolaich
        Colleagues, and 080808 was the same UN mandate, to clean South Ossetia from Georgian aggression? The West grunted and calmed down! Shut up! Who said, if that, what will be different?


        Everyone considered (West) South Ossetia the territory of Georgia and Georgia had the right to send troops, only they wanted all the genocide that they perpetrated there to transfer to Russia, but they did not succeed. The truth is always known sooner or later. In South Ossetia there were our peacekeepers who were attacked by Georgians, and by all norms and rules, we had every right to defend our peacekeepers and therefore troops were brought in. In Ukraine, a completely different situation and unfortunately we cannot send troops or bomb
        1. AlNikolaich
          AlNikolaich 22 March 2016 12: 05
          -1
          So, on the other hand, in the event of an invasion of the ukroverrmacht, the leadership of the unrecognized republics may ask for help! And, in principle, under the auspices of the protection of the civilian population, or the citizens of Russia (who live there), you can carry out "peace enforcement"! On the other hand, it is now easy to reset the APU by the Russian Aerospace Forces. Record the facts of shelling of cities and towns by the OSCE forces, and strike at the batteries of scum! Convene a press conference showing facts and evidence. Well, the west will howl, but no more ...
  4. kagorta
    kagorta 22 March 2016 06: 25
    +16
    The positions in Syria and Ukraine are not comparable. There we were invited by a legitimate government, at least for the UN, although the West screams that Assad has lost legitimacy from the bloody repressions of his own people, but you can’t get the cries out and we ourselves have legitimized Parashenko. And we also need to start this company hard. First, to deprive of legitimacy and only then coercion to peace is possible.
    1. domokl
      domokl 22 March 2016 06: 36
      +3
      repeat But what about coercion to peace? If one of the parties does not fulfill the peace agreements the guarantors of which are third countries, then these countries can force to stop the database ...
      1. VP
        VP 22 March 2016 06: 58
        +1
        Can not. The only body that can make a legitimate decision on various coercions is the UN Security Council.
        1. Ros 56
          Ros 56 22 March 2016 08: 26
          +3
          Bullshit, Saakakashka was also legitimate in Georgia on 08.08.08. And where is it? Or did the Security Council give permission to bomb Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya?
          We just need to be ready for songs and dances in the international arena performed by all kinds of pshek, tribals and other "independent" and powerful ones.
          1. VP
            VP 22 March 2016 10: 07
            +7
            You in the heat of the day confuse the right of the strong and the legitimacy of the application.
            If you just want to "bomb like in Yugoslavia" - that's one thing.
            If you talk about the legitimate use of weapons in the territory of another country, this is completely different.
            1. Ros 56
              Ros 56 22 March 2016 10: 32
              0
              Less emotion, more practicality. Are you on the street if if someone is trying to beat or rob someone for permission, run, or even run away?
              Live easier and you will be happy, all people have come up with for their convenience, but it is impossible to foresee everything.
              1. VP
                VP 22 March 2016 11: 11
                +2
                Let's define. Are you now discussing the legal competence that is stated in the article or "can we pile on them all"?
                1. KaPToC
                  KaPToC 22 March 2016 18: 09
                  0
                  The conversation was about the possibility in general, and not just in legal terms. You yourself pulled out this word - legal - and now you rest on it.
            2. KaPToC
              KaPToC 22 March 2016 18: 07
              0
              Law and justice are not synonyms, we must do everything in fairness, and not justify our actions or inaction by law.
      2. kagorta
        kagorta 22 March 2016 07: 17
        +1
        So there is no database, for the whole "world" there is a response of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the actions of the Russian occupation forces and their accomplices. Yes, and still need a UN Security Council decision that there is terror against the civilian population and something like a resolution on Libya. As it sounded there, the use of force is allowed, except for ground operations.
    2. tundra
      tundra 22 March 2016 07: 52
      +1
      Is Poroshenko's regime legitimate?
      1. AlNikolaich
        AlNikolaich 22 March 2016 08: 14
        +3
        Quote: tundra
        Is Poroshenko's regime legitimate?

        Damn, our government and the president recognized the legitimacy of the Kiev regime! That is the mistake! Minsk1, Minsk2, weren’t ours our observer there? These are our actions and led to the legalization of the junta! Instead of asserting that there is no power in Kiev, and that everything is illegal and anti-constitutional, we ourselves considered the junta as a party to the negotiations!
      2. Cat man null
        Cat man null 22 March 2016 08: 46
        +3
        Quote: tundra
        Is Poroshenko's regime legitimate?

        Yes

        Quote: AlNikolaich
        Damn, our government and the president recognized the legitimacy of the Kiev regime! That is the mistake!

        It’s hard not to admit what really is.

        Quote: Definition
        Legitimate - recognized by the population, endowed, like, with its trust.

        Elections in Ukraine passed? Yes. Poroshenko - the elected, (type) president? Yes. All. Poroshenko is legitimate as ... I don’t even know what. Like the pope in belay

        Quote: L. Carroll, "Alice in Wonderland"
        Girl, never say a word just because they are long and beautiful wink


  5. aszzz888
    aszzz888 22 March 2016 06: 34
    +2
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for the failure of agreements, Russia has not only moral law, but also legal grounds to force one of the parties to fulfill the agreements

    Presumably, the author has in mind non-relevance? Of course, I would like to believe in it, but ... Most likely this will not come to the effect of circumstances known to everyone. I would like it, VERY!
  6. rf xnumx
    rf xnumx 22 March 2016 06: 35
    +15
    Vladimir Yelchenko, representative of Ukraine to the UN:

    "... the next step after Russia's decision to withdraw its troops from Syria will be their withdrawal from Ukraine."
    Yes, you hell Yelchenko guessed
  7. parusnik
    parusnik 22 March 2016 06: 36
    +3
    That is why, it seems to me, Kerry is rushing "full sail" to Moscow. Americans are not used to losing. And therefore, Kerry will bargain for some preferences for the United States...Well, what can they bargain for, the power is running out .. elections in the USA are on the way .. and here's another interesting news on the internet, Ukraine signed an agreement with England on 15 years of military cooperation .. It smells like "the last and decisive" battle from the junta ... towards Donbass ..
  8. Same lech
    Same lech 22 March 2016 06: 45
    +10
    .Smells like "the last and decisive" battle from the side of the junta ... towards the Donbass

    Let's wait when the roads dry up ... all the aggressors begin an offensive to the east in the beginning or middle of June ... time will tell and the local people don’t hurry to die too much.
  9. crasever
    crasever 22 March 2016 06: 50
    +4
    UkroSMI is wailing about "the defeat of Russia", but they are keeping mum about the main task of the operation of our Aerospace Forces - to spray into atoms (which was successfully done), as many terrorist assassins as possible. Yes, and these knights of freedom of speech do not "remember" the beginning of the truce in Syria ...
  10. asiat_61
    asiat_61 22 March 2016 07: 00
    +2
    The author is right, the situation in Donbas is almost not voiced on television news. In tyrnete much more information.
  11. aba
    aba 22 March 2016 07: 02
    +1
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for breaking agreements, Russia has not only a moral right, but also legal grounds to force one of the parties to fulfill the agreements. And this will be coercion according to the same plan as in Syria.

    The air forces will strike at armed forces groups, and the LPR and DNR armies will conduct ground operations. Accordingly, the territories of the regions will be liberated. The campaign to Kiev, as urapatriots do not tear, is canceled. Enough liberation. Further, Ukraine will begin to fall apart without the participation of the Donetsk people. And even more so, the Russians.


    It hurts a rainbow picture ...
    Like Menshov's in the movie "Moscow Doesn't Believe in Tears":

    - Somehow I turned out perfect. It’s even strange.
    - Nothing, life will fix it
  12. SeregaBoss
    SeregaBoss 22 March 2016 07: 12
    +2
    If the great shitokrats have a favorite expression - "Russia does not fulfill, it breaks the Minsk agreements," then maybe it is true that they do not care about these pseudo-agreements? Carry out a peace enforcement operation at night for a couple of nights?
    Satellites say yes, do not care, they have their own video, we have our own video.
  13. egor73
    egor73 22 March 2016 07: 25
    +5
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for the failure of agreements, Russia has not only moral law, but also legal grounds ....

    Americans will never admit it! Only Russia will always be to blame. We must proceed from this fact and build our foreign policy on the basis of such an attitude towards us.
    1. Senior manager
      Senior manager 22 March 2016 11: 21
      +1
      Ready to fight? BY ADULT.
  14. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 22 March 2016 07: 26
    +2
    The withdrawal of some of our equipment and troops from Syria is a successful PR move, which has already brought its positive results on the information battlefield.
    As for Ukraine, its politicians fulfill only the will of their curators in relation to the Russian Federation. Most of the time they bite each other in the struggle for a larger piece of the grant, which the West throws to them, like hungry dogs.
  15. Gardener91
    Gardener91 22 March 2016 08: 10
    +1
    The UN Security Council may well decide to introduce a peacekeeping military contingent to the territory of the LPR, but without the participation of the Russian Federation, Moscow will not do anything. We will see. The war needs to be stopped.
    1. domokl
      domokl 22 March 2016 17: 56
      0
      repeat Someone who has something in the Security Council ... lol Russia has the right to veto ...
  16. Volga Cossack
    Volga Cossack 22 March 2016 08: 26
    0
    Timely article. The main thing we do not wear pink glasses ......... be to everything really ready!
  17. rustyle_nvrsk
    rustyle_nvrsk 22 March 2016 08: 27
    +2
    Dill after Minsk-2 squeezed 80 square kilometers, and the stavers tell all the tales about the spread out army.
    1. 33 Watcher
      33 Watcher 22 March 2016 08: 37
      0
      That's exactly what they squeezed. We occupied the "gray" demilitarized zone. Which the militia left as a gesture of goodwill in August 15th, pomoimu. They didn't take her by fighting, but just came and stood up ...
      1. domokl
        domokl 22 March 2016 17: 58
        0
        laughing They squeezed out ... Especially in Shirokino ... Who was there? And dill entered the empty wide
  18. 31rus2
    31rus2 22 March 2016 08: 34
    +3
    Dear, you specifically "played" in the war, what kind of air forces? Whom and what to bomb think, write, the maximum that Russia can send peacekeepers to Ukraine and then with the consent of the UN, and then you need to get permission, compare the Syrian and Ukrainian scenarios it is simply not reasonable in many aspects, Moscow does not have leverage over the regime, the EU, like Ukraine itself, does not have its own opinion in decision-making, and this is the Kremlin's mistake that the stake is placed on the wrong forces and on the wrong people in Russia itself
  19. 33 Watcher
    33 Watcher 22 March 2016 08: 36
    0
    The script is certainly tempting, leading to the end of the war. But hardly possible ...
  20. 72jora72
    72jora72 22 March 2016 09: 25
    0
    For those who do not know, I’ll explain. Such a star is assigned to the crew after completing 10 sorties. ten! Imagine the experience of pilots of such a crew. Combat experience!
    Two hundred sorties ..... this is not a pound of raisins for you, so to speak ....
  21. guzik007
    guzik007 22 March 2016 09: 32
    -1
    Pink glasses of Kiev power.
    ------------------------------------
    Yeah, if they don’t take them off, it’s not disgusting to stir her pink GLASS.
  22. Pinkie F.
    Pinkie F. 22 March 2016 09: 41
    +5
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for breaking agreements, Russia has not only a moral right, but also legal grounds to force one of the parties to fulfill the agreements. And this will be coercion according to the same plan as in Syria.
    The air forces will strike at armed forces groups, and the LPR and DNR armies will conduct ground operations.


    You, of course, excuse me, but this is nonsense. What "legal" right is the author talking about? Before sculpting unconscious associations, it would be nice to read the text of agreements. Logically, do all those involved in the Normandy format have "legal grounds" for military intervention?
    The analogy with Syria is generally ridiculous. I, of course, understand the author's inspiration by the stars on the fuselages, but the ease with which he threw the VKS to "pacify the bloody Kiev junta" is somewhat discouraging.

    The scenario that I drew today is completely predictable. Moreover, it is real.

    analyst and forecaster from God. Of course, it's much more real. Finally, the paranoid dream of "Putin, bring in the troops!"

    That is why, it seems to me, Kerry is rushing "full sail" to Moscow.

    when they seem to make a famous gesture. No matter how much the author would like (and, by the way, some hohls offended by the inattention of the West) - but not so. The issue of Ukraine is far from the first on the agenda.
  23. 2s1122
    2s1122 22 March 2016 09: 56
    +2
    The fact that VSK have completed their task is undeniable, but bombing the APU in Donetsk and Lugansk is bullshit laughing it had to be done in the first months, and at the moment time is wasted. Now only a deplatonic fuss.
  24. akims
    akims 22 March 2016 11: 03
    0
    Nobody will bomb anyone.
    And not even because the saturation of the war zone with air defense from both sides is quite high.
    Just the stink will rise once.
    And all too soon, it’s over, two.
    And this, unfortunately, is not beneficial to anyone now.
  25. VB
    VB 22 March 2016 11: 05
    +4
    Your mouth, yes honey to drink. But, in my opinion, our guarantor will never decide on a preventive strike of the air forces on banderlog gangs. He is not Potemkin, who refused to support the British Russian soldiers. Putin on the pouring Russian blood in the Donbass do not care. Well, when a Russian person anywhere in the world knows that Russia will protect him even with disproportionate actions, then everything will be all right in the state, as, for example, in Israel. And now the state’s proteges and footmen, who have money in the west, will be taken away from them in power. Whom will they protect? They do not want to give out citizenship to millions of ethnic Russians abandoned abroad.
  26. Senior manager
    Senior manager 22 March 2016 11: 28
    +1
    The Guarantor does not have such an opportunity, legal, GDP is not an adventurer. I support previous komenty - wait and see.
  27. Haloperidol
    Haloperidol 22 March 2016 12: 19
    0
    The truth of life is that the rearmament of the Russian army is not completed, and the reduction in the size of the army, which is already less than a million people, is a very controversial measure. Russia has an army, but I would like it to be better armed and have a population of one million, or one million two hundred thousand people. If there is no money, then the issue can be solved by starting the formation of units of the Russian national guard, as it was done in the USA and forming these parts are from volunteers subject to draft in case of mobilization.
  28. ruAlex
    ruAlex 22 March 2016 13: 30
    0
    As soon as Europeans and Americans recognize Poroshenko’s responsibility for breaking agreements, Russia has not only a moral right, but also legal grounds to force one of the parties to fulfill the agreements. And this will be coercion according to the same plan as in Syria.

    I would like to believe it, but why should the West contradict itself? Are all the goals they set for themselves fulfilled? Hardly, Ukraine is now neither here nor there as c @ rmo in an ice-hole and in any long-term perspective this state of her is hardly possible, therefore I doubt that they will take such a step. Although, again, recently we have witnessed so many seemingly incredible actions on the part of Russia, that guessing what's hidden in the sleeve of our president is a somewhat complicated matter. But there is a belief that he will still give all "partners" pr ... tsa.
  29. Andrey ABC
    Andrey ABC 22 March 2016 16: 30
    0
    Quote: asiat_61
    The author is right, the situation in Donbas is almost not voiced on television news. In tyrnete much more information.

    This is alarming - the calm before the storm.
  30. Balagan
    Balagan 22 March 2016 17: 29
    +1
    Well, yes - you won’t drink the experience. It is enough to recall how much experienced Red Army men liquidated the heroic Kwantung army.
  31. Normal ok
    Normal ok 22 March 2016 20: 01
    0
    The more I read A. Staver's articles, the more I remember Lenin's definition of the Decembrists: "They are terribly far from the people." In this case, "he is terribly far from reality."
  32. The comment was deleted.
  33. proud
    proud 22 March 2016 21: 53
    +1
    The author of the article claims that in which case the Russian air forces will strike at the enemies of the LPR and the DPR, forgetting that Ukraine, unlike the militants in Syria, has not bad air defense systems, and this will inevitably lead to losses from Russia, no one needs a big war, so the conflict will smolder, but major actions as before, I think it’s unlikely
  34. Dal arya
    Dal arya 22 March 2016 22: 27
    +4
    I don’t believe. For so many years, Russia has done everything so that the Ukrainian people do not hate it, forgave a lot, did not respond with a blow to the blow and what to take it all to quit and start ,, to wet ukrov? No, Russia will continue to look, well, what Ukrainians have there, and if there is a skirmish, as usual, militiamen and vacationers of one form or another will decide everything. And this is probably correct.