In fact, frankly, quarreling with the West was a brilliant move by Vladimir Putin.
Of course, independence always causes irritation to the petty tyrant. And stop arrogant boor can only show a force. It is also true that the external threat unites those to whom it is directed. This, so to speak, is the basis of psychology of any level. However, in this case, the independent policy of Russia, in truth, has nothing to do with it.
There is no doubt that Putin would have had enough diplomacy for a milder way of defending his interests. The extremely tough option chosen for building relationships with colleagues was needed for entirely different purposes, which are beginning to become clear only now.
Any brilliant decision is revealed through a no less brilliant embodiment.
The moment was chosen with stalker accuracy. Russia could regain the status of a superpower in the period of global turbulence. To show the whole planet a way out of the catastrophe, seizing the initiative from the rolling American star, was possible only at the peak of the global crisis. Contrary to the proverb, in calm times, humanity is somehow not inclined to change horses. Driven - well, let them carry. Doubts about the capacity of the ruling team arise in a storm, especially when its wheels begin to slip.
The trouble is that America did not understand it in time. To think only if the United States proposed some way out of the crisis that was more or less acceptable for the majority, their position would most likely remain unshakable. But instead, they gave an ultimatum to three quarters of the Earth, in fact, offering them the choice between physical or spiritual destruction. And after that, they continue to be surprised that potential victims do not agree with them.
Genius does not think cause-and-effect relationships. He follows the intention of events, including political ones. It is naive to think that the United States created the economic crisis in order to finish off Putin’s bully in retaliation for Syria and the Crimea. Just the opposite. This crisis happened because brazen America came, as Danila Bagrov said, kirdyk.
The simplicity of the solution is another sign of genius. Behind her, however, is the amount of work that even scary to imagine.
First, it was necessary to realize clearly and without a shadow of doubt that the United States can no longer claim to be the first among all. Actually, it was necessary to see it as the seers see. These, of course, not fake. Because there are no prerequisites for such a conclusion just a few years ago.
Awareness of this kind arises only on the basis of a huge amount of very different data, which testified to the impending collapse of the dollar financial system and the crisis of power in the United States. If judged stereotypically, this is only a periodic decline in the economy and a pre-election boom. Not every politician has such a non-trivial thinking to understand: we face the end of an entire era.
Secondly, under the existing conjuncture, there is only one road to the prosperity of any power - through looting, violence and the suppression of others. But for Russia, by virtue of the mentality historically established in it, this path is unacceptable. Therefore, for further successful development, she will have to change external conditions.
Frontal confrontation with the transcontinental hegemon is an extremely bloody matter, and with regard to its nuclear potential, it is deadly. Even the USSR was not capable of this. Russia, which has lost its republics, has barely recovered from perestroika, all the more it does not pull open confrontation with the US, along with the EU, NATO and other caliphs for an hour, such as Saudi Arabia. In addition, one of the axioms of success says: act, as always, and you will get the same result. This means that new conditions will require other methods.
Thirdly, the paradox that has become well known to both parties is the basis for the new paradigm of interaction between the Russian Federation and the West: Russia can be defeated only if you are friends with it. Being with her in confrontation, it is impossible to do this - we will always be on the alert.
Stalin was not on friendly terms with the United States and Great Britain. Under him, we defeated fascism and raised the country from ruins in one five-year period. But Gorbachev was very friendly with them, under whom the USSR ceased to exist, and Yeltsin, under whom Russia almost ceased to exist. Napoleon came to us when the ruling class was talking en masse in French, forgetting their native language. Historical analogies can be continued in breadth and depth, but the essence is clear.
We can destroy only those whom we believe. It is not for nothing that treason, not murder or theft, is considered the gravest sin in Christianity. From the traitor there is no protection. It is not intended in this case.
When we thought America was good, it became the ideal of our life. She climbed into our brains, to the treasury, to the government, to the bins. In 90, it was fashionable to paint the name of a sniffed shop in English. This, too, was in its own way a talented step - to present the colonizer not as an invader, but as perfection, to which one should strive with all the fibers of the soul.
From this sad experience it follows that the time for our friendship with the Rothschilds (the Rockefellers, who prefer) has clearly not yet come. Equal relations between states in general can not be. At least at the present stage of human development. No equality with America all the more. However, in order to implement the new concept of the world, you must first free up space from the old one. What to do?
Another sign that you have a genius in front of you is his maximum efficiency with minimal impact. Fighting without rules with fatal outcome is not our method. So, to achieve the desired result is quite beautiful, tasty, and most importantly - publicly whip the petty tyrant, sorry, in the face. And do it strictly at the right time.
In Putin's strategy for changing relations with the West, all levels of the game are arranged incrementally. The transition from one stage to another is carried out in strict accordance with the transformation of the global financial and geopolitical panorama.
First stage. Putin's Munich speech in 2007. In the historical context, it was essentially the most natural provocation, or probing of the reaction of the enemy.
Second phase. Colleagues predictably cut off color revolutions in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan. Our response to Obama was the separation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and the formation of the EEU. That is, Russia has shown to the whole world that American influence is far from infinite, it is quite possible and necessary for it to put up a barrier.
Maybe someone forgot or did not notice, but this action was played against the background of another economic crisis. It looks like a reconnaissance mission: how accurately will the opponent assess the danger and will his behavior change. Alas. The enemy, apparently, relied too much on the inviolability of his power. And underestimating a competitor is fraught with death.
The third stage. Successful open opposition from the US - the abolition of the bombing of Syria in 2013-m. From our side, this was a demonstration of: a) international support for the Russian course, b) the ability to influence the space not only of the near but also abroad.
The fourth stage. Hegemon did not understand and gave Maidan. In order, as we now understand, with the hands of the Square to take away from the Russian Federation the Black Sea Fleet and drive Russia out of the Black Sea. Putin was left with only two options, and both are very bad: to fight with Ukraine or to give the Black Sea to NATO bases. Vladimir Vladimirovich, as always, chose the third option and annexed Crimea to Russia. This was already such a serious application that after it the way back to 2000 for Russia was cut off.
The aggravation again came at the beginning of a global recession. But Russia this time behaved somehow wrong. Instead of sitting silently in a corner on a stool, not quarreling with her neighbors, waiting for the storm and eating up the reserves accumulated during the fat years, she quite consciously brought the matter to serious sanctions and began to accelerate to reduce economic dependence on Europe.
Fifth stage. After that, it remains only to finish the Syrian problem and squeeze out the United States from the Middle East. It must be said, this was done extremely arbitrarily: when they wanted - troops entered, when they considered them necessary - they took them out. Probably, the ISIL people who decided to return to their homeland after the Syrian battles could have been quietly strangled at the border, without any videoconferencing. But ... Strong is the one who does what he wants and knows that he will have nothing for it.
One can imagine the analysts of the CIA, the NSA, the Pentagon, and so on, plunged into an ever deeper shock. What kind of idiot launched into Western brains the idea that Putin was supposedly a tactician and not a strategist? It seems that the darkest thought of everything else in 2001-m or, in extreme cases, in 2002-m ...
The petty tyrant was only capable of pitiful attempts at resistance, such as the expansion of NATO (you might think they are really going to shoot these missiles!) Or destroy our planes by proxy. Even to shake Erdogan before the war and that did not happen.
Sophisticated tyranny is very far from genius. Any act of genius is born not in order to prove to the whole world that it is right, but in order to change this world, making it a little closer to the Truth.
And the truth is that in the modern world Russia, of course, can exist with some effort. But it is not in a position to thrive in it, to reveal its truly limitless potential. For America needs war to raise wealth. And Russia needs peace for its heyday. This is one of the cardinal differences between us. Why it happened is a topic for a separate study. But we can not profit from someone else's trouble. We can not even live in peace when there is trouble. And the point is not that it can reach us. We just can’t think about ourselves without first thinking about others.
Therefore, the new scheme of Russian-American relations, launched by Putin, should change the world in such a way that harsh opposition options are no longer needed. For this, at the moment of weakening the former power, another force is demonstrated to the world. After the diabolical lies and police surveillance of transcontinental oligarchs, it will surely seem more attractive to humanity.
What's next? A frightened monster, seeking to preserve at least some of the elusive power, is still not stupid enough to stupidly climb on the rampage, that is, on the nuclear warhead. Because GDP clearly made it clear that in the case of a direct threat will not fluctuate. The tyrant will seek reconciliation. Only it will take place on the terms of Putin. Kissinger's visit to Moscow is a sure sign of compromise. And in general, judging by the election campaign of Trump, the period of anti-Russian presidents in the United States ended.
As for domestic policy, the government (read Putin’s; they simply don’t dare to name it directly), with an enviable constancy worthy of a better application, is accused of not taking radical measures to restructure the economy. However, such a reorganization, no matter how well-intentioned it may be, is always associated with inevitable shocks and losses for the population. It does not happen that everything changes well for everyone. Someone better as now. And not necessarily because it is bad. It’s just that his personal circumstances were such that in these conditions he was afloat. And if these conditions change, he can drown.
And when these drowning ones are added to those who are already choking due to a change in the external conjuncture, it can easily be overkill. What our opponents over the hill only achieve. Especially before our elections, for which, as Vladimir Vladimirovich said, they are also preparing. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the motivations of the criticism of the financial sector. Somehow it seems that, if Nabiullina, Siluanov and Ulyukayev were agents of the West and protégés of Zionism, they would be engaged in radical reforms, and not stabilization of the economy.
By the way, we are absolutely in vain afraid of the uncertainty that supposedly will be with Russia after Putin. All cheating fears of radical and liberal pseudo-patriots around the transfer / change of power, the presence / absence of a successor, etc. eventually boils away into a routine. Russian genius lies in the fact that it is infinitely diverse. Now Russia needs a genius capable of unfolding the course of global politics from mutual annihilation to coexistence. We have such a genius. This is Vladimir Putin.
True genius never adapts to its surroundings. She has enough strength to change the world around her. The task for the genius politician who creates the future of his country, even if it seems so far distant to us, is to change the situation in such a way that he himself no longer needs him. And then in Russia a genius of a different quality will be in demand. He who will lead the world from disunity to unity.
But that will be a completely different story.