Military Review

Yemeni swamp for the Saudis

36
At the beginning of the week, the UAE Air Force lost the Mirage 2000-9DAD double fighter in Yemen, which was the symbolic result of the senseless and fruitless campaign that the Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia leads in this country. The latter, by the way, risks almost more than the others. The kingdom of the coming years can expect several crises at once, which, in the end, can lead to an increase in centrifugal tendencies. These are also ambiguities regarding the succession, the gradual depletion of foreign exchange reserves, and the possible victory of the isolationists in the US elections in November, who will refuse to support the main satellites in the Middle East, emphasizing a self-sufficient Iran..


Yemeni swamp for the Saudis


But the main challenge for Riyadh is, of course, a military crisis and the costs it incurs. Directly or indirectly, the Wahhabi empire participates in two wars at once: in the north, in the sands of Syria and Iraq, and also in the south - in Yemen. Both wars require substantial expenditures and none of them has a tendency towards a quick and victorious conclusion. Since 1934 (with the defeat of the same Yemen), the Saudis have not seen a single noticeable victory. Although Saudi Arabia is formally one of the winning countries in World War II, its contribution to the Allied victory is well visible only through a microscope. During the period of the Gulf War, the army of the kingdom proved to be extremely unfortunate, as there is enough evidence.



The new war in Yemen also came out far from small and not victorious. The war year revealed critical shortcomings of the Saudi army: lack of initiative, low morale, unsuitable strategy. Soldiers and officers abandon the equipment entrusted to them literally at the very beginning of the battle. Often - almost not damaged. This behavior is observed in the units of the Wahhabi monarchy, not only in Yemen, but in the territory of Saudi Arabia itself, where the Hussites have already captured a number of settlements. Curious is the fact that the media of the Arabian monarchies, which at one time predicted the "Afghan trap" for the Russian Federation in Syria, in Yemen themselves found themselves in a situation much more similar to the Afghan war. At the same time, the armed forces of the Arab countries cannot be compared in combat effectiveness with either the Soviet or the American army.

The inability to continue the attack on the north, in the mountainous part of Yemen, puts the Arab coalition in front of a long positional war, for which the invaders are absolutely not ready. The collapse of the coalition in this case is almost a decided matter and no petrodollars can change anything here. As a result, losing money, equipment, allies and the face of Al Saud will have to withdraw troops from the mainland of Yemen, leaving only the island of Socotra, as a strategic point of control over the Gulf of Aden.

Following the withdrawal of events, events may begin to move under several scenarios. The common feature of these scenarios is that they all do not bode well for the Saudis. In the first case, after the withdrawal of the occupying troops, the Hussites subdued the country by force and persuasion. The tribes take on new power, and (banned in Russia), al-Qaida and ISIS will be defeated. The authority of Sana'a and Tehran in the Islamic world will soar to the skies, and the monarchies of the Gulf, by contrast, will fall. The new government is beginning to help the Shiite movements already in the territory of Saudi Arabia itself.



The second way also does not promise Riyadh an easy life. In case the Hussites cannot master the whole country, several exclaves are formed in Yemen at once, one of which will definitely become Shiite, and the other - Wahhabi, under the control of the local IG cell. The scenario for Saudi Arabia is extremely unpleasant, since the neighboring country becomes the base for the armed underground of all stripes. So the choice of the Saudis is simple - either to fight in Yemen until complete exhaustion of their own resources, or to fight again, but on their own territory.

There are a number of fundamental contradictions between the Wahhabi radicals from the IG and the state Wahhabism of Sadovskaya Arabia. For example, the radicals consider traitors and apostates to reject the “holy war” against all the “infidels,” as it is known, that only one punishment is imposed on apostasy.



Nowhere is the threat of Shiite separatism relevant for Saudi Arabia. The same preacher Nimr al-Nimr, whose execution had recently quarreled Riyadh with Tehran, declared in the 2009 year that the Shiites of the Kingdom were ready to create their own state if the authorities did not stop repressions against them, and on July 2015 in the predominantly Shiite province of Najran armed the Ahrar al-Najran movement, which proclaimed independence of the territory from Riyadh.

Actually, against such a background, Saudia is also preparing for intervention in the Syrian civil war. How much the monarchy expects to hold the second front, given that not everything is alright with the first, is not clear. Obviously, after the departure of the Russian aviation IS will be much freer to act in the Syrian and Iraqi spaces. This means that the Islamists will soon be able to recall their long-standing ideological goals: two of the three holy Muslim cities, Mecca and Medina, are located on the territory of Saudi Arabia. The third holy city of Muslims is Jerusalem.

Of course, all the threats described above are only prospects, but experience shows that in the absence of sane ways out of the impasse, it is these scenarios that often become decisive. Especially in a region like the Middle East.
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 18 March 2016 06: 37
    +8
    Actually, against such a background, Saudia is also preparing for intervention in the Syrian civil war... Late .. already does not intervene ...
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 18 March 2016 10: 42
      -8
      Yemen is no less "lokhmache" than in Syria. There is something similar to the Egyptian military coup. From the South the Saudis, to the West the sea, and to the East Syria - back to back. It is the latter that haunts neither the United States nor Riyadh. And if we take into account the geography of the Golan Heights, then this situation is not comme il faut for Israel either.
      1. Alexey RA
        Alexey RA 18 March 2016 13: 29
        +15
        Quote: siberalt
        and to the East Syria - back to back

        This is how popanians from parallel worlds scorch - on trifles. smile
        1. Pereira
          Pereira 18 March 2016 14: 53
          +7
          This is not a fellow. This is a disabled exam.
          1. Talgat
            Talgat 18 March 2016 18: 39
            0
            and the option with parallel worlds is more romantic. I liked the idea ++
            And suddenly, among the real "guests".
      2. JACTUS RECTUS
        JACTUS RECTUS 18 March 2016 15: 45
        +3
        Ahah. The last time VO is just some kind of circus, I mean komenty. That horses appeared in the 16th century, then sectarians again pour about TARTARIA and about the Slavs who arrived from Jupiter, now they have taken up geography. In general, I can’t laugh !!!
      3. The comment was deleted.
    3. Megatron
      Megatron 18 March 2016 11: 14
      +2
      And who did Russia offer a base on this very island, where else are our old tanks dug in?
  2. mirag2
    mirag2 18 March 2016 06: 38
    +5
    Well, Iran promptly fussed in Yemen. Remember how recently the ships slowed it down in the bay? And here’s the downed Saudi plane:
  3. kenig1
    kenig1 18 March 2016 06: 44
    +5
    A lot of plus, but the hackneyed mantra about leaving "after the departure of Russian aviation, IS will become much freer to act" already ...... Putin V. Directly, without political ornateness, he explained everything to everyone.
    1. Blondy
      Blondy 18 March 2016 07: 23
      +6
      Quote: kenig1
      A lot of plus, but the hackneyed mantra about leaving "after the departure of Russian aviation, IS will become much freer to act" already ...... Putin V. Directly, without political ornateness, he explained everything to everyone.

      Ours finally learned to play global, in my opinion there, with the announcement of the perimiry, everything was seized as it should. The only thing that is alarming is the hasty federalization of the Kurds, if the Qatari pipeline did not emerge again, but here Assad did not say his word.
      1. gaura
        gaura 18 March 2016 13: 39
        +3
        Assad has long been deciding little there. Everything is decided by global players. And now, first of all, Russia
    2. 73bor
      73bor 18 March 2016 08: 27
      +3
      IG after the departure of part of the air forces from Syria will not become easier, as they were kneaded in Latakia and Palmyra and continue to knead!
  4. Ayujak
    Ayujak 18 March 2016 07: 11
    +11
    Husits ​​are great! How much I look, I am always surprised. They Without air support and tanks manage with RPGs, AKs and ATGMs, but barefoot lol Destroy Bradley columns, capture Saudi locations and destroy tanks such as Patton and Abrams. Well done ...
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 18 March 2016 10: 03
      +2
      This is all excellent, but it doesn’t help Husitav particularly; they press on the map - green - Husit territory, white Alkaida, pink - government troops and coalitions.
      1. Ayujak
        Ayujak 22 March 2016 07: 02
        0
        Well, they crush with varying success. No joke, against the tribes of warring barefoot a coalition (so that they) came out with the most modern weapons, support from the air and from the sea. Smart would have crushed for a long time. Thank God, the Persian Gulf fighters are so-so. Here Alkaida and other terrorists pose a great danger.
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 18 March 2016 07: 20
    +9
    not only in Yemen, but on the territory of Saudi Arabia itself, where Hussites have already captured a number of settlements

    The Saudis are not sorry. They themselves have unleashed, let them disentangle themselves. But the Hussites want to support, so that they continue to set their brains on the snickering princes and other offspring of the monarchy.
  6. surrozh
    surrozh 18 March 2016 07: 24
    +3
    The Saudis are fighting with mercenaries, life in exchange for money is somehow hard to change.
    "The coalition, in addition to Saudi Arabia itself, included: Jordan, UAE, Pakistan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Benin, Turkey, Chad, Togo, Tunisia, Djibouti, Senegal, Sudan, Sierra Leone, Gabon, Somalia, Guinea, PNA, Union Comoros, Cote d'Ivoire, Kuwait, Lebanon, Egypt, Libya, Maldives, Morocco, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria and Yemen. " The Republic of Maldives is especially touching - why does it not lie on the sand under the palm trees, and what is PNA is not clear at all.
    1. nadezhiva
      nadezhiva 18 March 2016 11: 15
      +2
      Quote: surozh
      what is PNA is not at all clear.

      - Palestine (Palestinian National Autonomy, sort of).
  7. Ramzes33
    Ramzes33 18 March 2016 07: 33
    +5
    The Hussites are one of the most warlike peoples of the Middle East. According to the legends, the Hussites included the guard of the prophet Magomed. And I do not envy the Saud, centrifugal forces will increase.
    1. Anatole Klim
      Anatole Klim 18 March 2016 09: 52
      +3
      Quote: Ramzes33
      The Hussites are one of the most warlike peoples of the Middle East.

      In fact, Husites are not people, they are followers of Imam Hussein al-Khusi, and the population there is Arab tribes, which are really very warlike.
  8. Papapg
    Papapg 18 March 2016 07: 37
    +4
    It is necessary to help, attract specialists from c-75, c-125 and Saudi-Wachabites will have holidays.
    1. Bongo
      Bongo 18 March 2016 10: 37
      +5
      Quote: Papapg
      It is necessary to help, attract specialists from c-75, c-125 and Saudi-Wachabites will have holidays.

      There will be no operational stationary anti-aircraft systems in Yemen. No.

      All of them were destroyed as a result of airstrikes.
  9. unknown
    unknown 18 March 2016 09: 53
    -5
    A false story breeds a failed policy.
    What an arab caliphate. Even supposedly their written language, the Arabs called Turkish writing. The mythical Arab caliphate is a phantom of the Ottoman Empire.
    In this region, from the local only Turks and Persians can steer.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 18 March 2016 10: 50
      +4
      I wonder whose phantom the Ottoman Empire is. Or is Istanbul not the former Alexandria (Constantinople), on the gates of which, a very long time ago, the Russian prince Oleg Veshchiy nailed a shield? laughing
  10. hunn
    hunn 18 March 2016 11: 28
    +1
    Actually, Constantinople is a former Byzantine city of Constantinople.
  11. black
    black 18 March 2016 11: 56
    +1
    There is one conclusion. The ground operation in Syria, the CA will not pull.
  12. Vetal999
    Vetal999 18 March 2016 12: 06
    +1
    How do I see it. The USA, venturing into Syria, has already ruined Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. For some reason (maybe the indulgence of the dove of peace with Obama has ended, maybe they saw the greed of the Saudis and Turks - HZ) they did not climb on their own, but offered others to take up Syria, naturally under the roof of the United States. Wishing to find a lot. They are all mixed up there now. Due to the fact that Syria’s derban was delayed, new participants intervened - the situation has changed, now they simply don’t know what to do. If all jackals agree on new conditions for sharing, then the dirt of ties with terrorists creeps out into the white light, and Europe will not forgive this.
    Besides, elections are coming soon in the USA. That is why both Saudi and Turkey are now on treason: they are afraid that the Americans, who persuaded them (through greed), will simply throw them away, leaving them without a "roof" and making them the main culprits of the mess. In addition, they are afraid that some will think: why should they fight in the lands devastated for 5 years, because there are rich and, like an overripe apple, reeling in treason, not stable, which can only be pushed and can be torn apart in troubled water (moreover, the reason there is almost no need to look for aggression, they themselves have almost given it) - that is, specifically for themselves.
    1. dogens
      dogens 18 March 2016 14: 26
      +1
      Quote: Vetal999
      The USA, venturing into Syria, has already ruined Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. For some reason (maybe the indulgence of the dove of peace with Obama has ended, maybe they saw the greed of the Saudis and Turks - HZ) they did not climb on their own, but offered others to take up Syria, naturally under the roof of the United States.

      Just different bonuses. It's one thing when you yourself participate, control, there is a chance to get more. It's another matter when the USA "helps" you. Then, after such an operation, the Saudis will have crumbs. And apparently taking into account the geographical importance of Yemen, the Saudis decided not to resort to help, but to go in the vanguard. Pierced.
      1. Vetal999
        Vetal999 18 March 2016 16: 53
        +1
        Clarification: the United States may have been afraid of a conflict of interest with its allies (the United States is robbed, but where are we respected?).
        And in Yemen there was and / or a pro-Saudi government was trying to be, they could not abandon it.
  13. Berserks
    Berserks 18 March 2016 14: 25
    +2
    And the Hussites were great, the air defense seems to have been destroyed by the Saudis at the very beginning, and the coalition’s losses are already more than 20 planes. They’re down from the berdanoks ... 5 ships were already sunk
  14. Leeder
    Leeder 18 March 2016 16: 04
    +1
    The question arose, but what actually brought down the Mirage?
    If any modern ground-based equipment can be destroyed (you just need a bigger mine), then aircraft from the 70s without the presence of air defense systems or at least MANPADS, to shoot down is quite problematic ...
  15. Megatron
    Megatron 18 March 2016 17: 12
    +1
    A new willow needs to be there so that they are afraid to fly.
  16. rus-5819
    rus-5819 18 March 2016 17: 21
    +1
    either fight in Yemen until the depletion of their own resources, or again fight, but on their own territory.

    Like all svidomye: farted in a puddle, sort of loud, but smelly .....
  17. jakub
    jakub 18 March 2016 17: 35
    +2
    Yes, hell, take off your problems above the roof than the richer the Russians so good for Belarusians and then let them grind each other
  18. Ze Kot
    Ze Kot 18 March 2016 19: 15
    +1
    Quote: AYUJAK
    Husits ​​are great! How much I look, I am always surprised. They Without air support and tanks manage with RPGs, AKs and ATGMs, but barefoot lol Destroy Bradley columns, capture Saudi locations and destroy tanks such as Patton and Abrams. Well done ...


    So guerrilla warfare in its purest form. There is no need for aviation.
  19. Yugan Oleg
    Yugan Oleg 18 March 2016 21: 49
    +1
    Once there were two states in Yemen.