Continuation of the heartbreaking story about the duel "Russia - rating agencies"
Not so long ago on our site there was a material called "Initiative of Russia on the work of" international "rating agencies. Who will show the red one?". The material was devoted to the fact that the Russian authorities are going to attach the so-called international rating to compliance with Russian legislation. In order not to retell the article in its entirety (any reader who is willing to read it) is worth pointing out the main thing. The main thing is that Russia, with 2017, intends to legally prohibit international rating agencies working with Russia to lower their previously assigned sovereign rating, if we are talking about reducing this rating against the background of economic restrictions imposed by foreign countries (sanctions).
Representatives of one of the rating agencies - Fitch - after the appearance of such initiatives, Moscow announced that they would be forced to refuse at all to assign economic (credit) ratings to Russia and leave Russia.
From the statement of the representative of Fitch, Ian Linnell about the situation (quote Interfax):
In general, representatives of international rating agencies (and so it turns out that the largest of them are registered in the USA) decided to arrange a kind of verbal demarche. Like, if you legally oblige us not to change the previously assigned ratings, even if Washington will introduce new sanctions, then we will tell you: “Farewell!”
Liberal economists (and not only economists) once again accused Russia of all mortal sins, stating that, say, the departure of the same Fitch will bury the Russian economy, finally scaring any investor. However, it now turns out that verbal demarches and loud statements about the possible departure of rating agency representatives from Russia are akin to a card bluff. They say that we have solid trumps in our hands, and if you take “a step to the left - a step to the right” - we will finally smash you and hang sixes for epaulets ...
But it turned out that with the trump cards of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, to put it mildly, not everything is in order. The loss of the opportunity to work in the Russian market for these companies is not only a loss of income, but also, which is much more important for them, a loss of reputation. After all, if international rating agencies refuse to comply with Russian legislative norms, in fact, openly dancing to the American banjo, then none of the adequate investors will simply pay attention to their rating calculations from now on. Yes, by and large, and today many do not pay attention. Here is one of these reasons: not all rating agencies have assigned default status to the Ukrainian economy, although according to all the rules and regulations (Ukraine does not fulfill its debt obligations), the Ukrainian economy must de jure be recognized as default. So what? Has one of the major investors decided to use ratings concocted by agencies that are trying to mislead investors? Has any of the investors led billions to Ukraine to implement large projects? No, I didn't ...
It turns out that by the current moment the rating agencies themselves, which call themselves international, have damaged their reputation as really independent structures. And, realizing this, the representatives of the agencies themselves now make it clear that they don’t want to leave Russia, in order not to be completely ridiculous.
According to the Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Moiseyev, representatives of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's in their conversations with the Ministry of Finance said that they were not going to leave the Russian Federation. But if so, then how will the listed rating offices work, because they themselves have just stated that Russian legislation is on their side, as they say, because they are American firms ...
A partial answer to this question is given by the aforementioned Alexey Moiseev. According to him, international rating agencies expressing a desire to stay to work in Russia and with Russia will use their Russian branches. Moody's, Fitch and S&P have these branches. The agencies will go through accreditation under the new (from 2017) legislation on rating agencies (the corresponding law was signed by President Vladimir Putin in 2015). Further, a kind of reformatting of the rating scales will take place - with the disappearance of the national scales that have been used for the last 10 years.
TASS cites the statement of the Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation:
Branches of international agencies operating in Russia will provide reporting documentation on the assignment of ratings to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. That is, the branches will operate in full compliance with Russian legislation, which will automatically prevent the publication of ratings based on fictitious calculations and pressure from foreign states. At the same time, the head offices of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's will remain in the US legal field and will continue to publish international ratings on an international scale.
In other words, if the conditional investor needs to know the credit rating of Russia, he can look at the national and international scales. Moreover, the conditional investor understands perfectly well that the “international” scale is the scale that corresponds to American aspirations, and therefore, to pay attention to it or not is his own business. Unless, because of "respect" for American "exclusiveness".
After this, it remains to expect the comments of those who are "international" rating agencies initially created as an economic (and political too) tool - that is, from Washington. Will the “exclusive authority” allow its agencies to work in virtually two dimensions, one of which will also reflect the real credit rating of a foreign state, for example, Russia. But here Washington finds itself in an unpleasant situation for itself: after all, if he tackles pocket agencies, forcing them to leave the Russian Federation, then the trust in these agencies in the world will finally be reduced exclusively to the stick method: "accept my ratings or get in the lob, "for democracy ...
Representatives of one of the rating agencies - Fitch - after the appearance of such initiatives, Moscow announced that they would be forced to refuse at all to assign economic (credit) ratings to Russia and leave Russia.
From the statement of the representative of Fitch, Ian Linnell about the situation (quote Interfax):
The authorities are trying to surround the Russian financial system with a security ring. This can be understood, but we, as a global company that must comply with US laws (Fitch is registered in the US - author's note), are in a situation where, if sanctions are imposed on Russian clients, we either violate Russian or international legislation.
In general, representatives of international rating agencies (and so it turns out that the largest of them are registered in the USA) decided to arrange a kind of verbal demarche. Like, if you legally oblige us not to change the previously assigned ratings, even if Washington will introduce new sanctions, then we will tell you: “Farewell!”
Liberal economists (and not only economists) once again accused Russia of all mortal sins, stating that, say, the departure of the same Fitch will bury the Russian economy, finally scaring any investor. However, it now turns out that verbal demarches and loud statements about the possible departure of rating agency representatives from Russia are akin to a card bluff. They say that we have solid trumps in our hands, and if you take “a step to the left - a step to the right” - we will finally smash you and hang sixes for epaulets ...
But it turned out that with the trump cards of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, to put it mildly, not everything is in order. The loss of the opportunity to work in the Russian market for these companies is not only a loss of income, but also, which is much more important for them, a loss of reputation. After all, if international rating agencies refuse to comply with Russian legislative norms, in fact, openly dancing to the American banjo, then none of the adequate investors will simply pay attention to their rating calculations from now on. Yes, by and large, and today many do not pay attention. Here is one of these reasons: not all rating agencies have assigned default status to the Ukrainian economy, although according to all the rules and regulations (Ukraine does not fulfill its debt obligations), the Ukrainian economy must de jure be recognized as default. So what? Has one of the major investors decided to use ratings concocted by agencies that are trying to mislead investors? Has any of the investors led billions to Ukraine to implement large projects? No, I didn't ...
It turns out that by the current moment the rating agencies themselves, which call themselves international, have damaged their reputation as really independent structures. And, realizing this, the representatives of the agencies themselves now make it clear that they don’t want to leave Russia, in order not to be completely ridiculous.
According to the Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Moiseyev, representatives of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's in their conversations with the Ministry of Finance said that they were not going to leave the Russian Federation. But if so, then how will the listed rating offices work, because they themselves have just stated that Russian legislation is on their side, as they say, because they are American firms ...
A partial answer to this question is given by the aforementioned Alexey Moiseev. According to him, international rating agencies expressing a desire to stay to work in Russia and with Russia will use their Russian branches. Moody's, Fitch and S&P have these branches. The agencies will go through accreditation under the new (from 2017) legislation on rating agencies (the corresponding law was signed by President Vladimir Putin in 2015). Further, a kind of reformatting of the rating scales will take place - with the disappearance of the national scales that have been used for the last 10 years.
TASS cites the statement of the Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation:
Those national scales in the form in which we are accustomed to know them the last 10 years, probably disappear. And we will have international scales of international rating agencies, and there will be a national scale, which will be done by agencies that will be accredited.
Branches of international agencies operating in Russia will provide reporting documentation on the assignment of ratings to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. That is, the branches will operate in full compliance with Russian legislation, which will automatically prevent the publication of ratings based on fictitious calculations and pressure from foreign states. At the same time, the head offices of Fitch, Moody's and Standard & Poor's will remain in the US legal field and will continue to publish international ratings on an international scale.
In other words, if the conditional investor needs to know the credit rating of Russia, he can look at the national and international scales. Moreover, the conditional investor understands perfectly well that the “international” scale is the scale that corresponds to American aspirations, and therefore, to pay attention to it or not is his own business. Unless, because of "respect" for American "exclusiveness".
After this, it remains to expect the comments of those who are "international" rating agencies initially created as an economic (and political too) tool - that is, from Washington. Will the “exclusive authority” allow its agencies to work in virtually two dimensions, one of which will also reflect the real credit rating of a foreign state, for example, Russia. But here Washington finds itself in an unpleasant situation for itself: after all, if he tackles pocket agencies, forcing them to leave the Russian Federation, then the trust in these agencies in the world will finally be reduced exclusively to the stick method: "accept my ratings or get in the lob, "for democracy ...
- Alexei Volodin
- utmagazine.ru
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