Undoubtedly, Syria is certainly the starting point of a military conflict between Russia and NATO, or individual NATO countries.
Of course, NATO countries, especially the leading countries, will never go into a large-scale conflict with Russia until Russian nuclear power has been neutralized. weapon. As long as there is a nuclear threat from the Russian Federation, a large-scale conflict in its traditional form on the part of NATO countries and the United States is impossible. However, local conflicts of the scale of an armed conflict or a local war that do not reach the threshold of the use of nuclear weapons are quite real.
If we talk about the dynamics of events, then the likely scenario of the emergence and escalation of the war with Russia by NATO may look as follows. At the first stage, during the first 2-3 months, Russia will be drawn into a conflict with Turkey in Syria. The fighting will be unleashed by Turkey in Syria in order to break through the corridor to Aleppo and thereby ensure the ability of Turkey to supply the militants of the Islamic State, other terrorist organizations with ammunition, material and technical means, weapons and ensure that these militants transit from Turkish territory healthy and vice versa - sick, wounded and injured for treatment. Given the fact that the land invasion of Turkish forces into Syria without aviation support will be a problem, perhaps Turkey will unilaterally declare a no-fly zone in the northern regions of Syria. In this case, Turkey may come into contact with the Russian aviation group and the Syrian air force.
The modeling of the course of hostilities in this region, which I conducted, shows that with the likely development of the scenario in this conflict, Turkey will be able to weaken the Russian-Syrian air force. However, the final goal of an air offensive is to defeat these forces, and it will itself suffer some serious losses. Nevertheless, the pressure of the Russian Air Force on the possible attack of the Turkish troops will be significantly weakened. Further, Turkey can form a strike force, taking into account the peculiarities of the theater and the operational capacity of the likely combat zone, this force is unlikely to exceed the body scale. This may be two, a maximum of three divisions, one of which is armored, the other mountain, and the rest mechanized; This is a set of rocket troops and corps-wide artillery, probably reinforced by additional formations, in order to provide fire damage to the entire depth of the operational construction of a grouping of Syrian armed forces. Of course, in the first echelon of this corps there will be the formation of Islamic radicals, who will act in close cooperation with Turkish aviation and artillery. Under these conditions, it must be assumed that at the first stage Turkey will be able to solve the problem of breaking through the defenses of the Syrian troops in this direction, however, it will be very doubtful to achieve operational success, ensure the development of success and a complete de-blockade of Aleppo.
Firstly, despite the good training of the Turkish armed forces, the technical equipment of the Turkish army leaves much to be desired. The most modern Tanksthat are currently available in Turkey are Leopard and Leopard-2A4. This is a German-made machine that entered service with the German army in the early 80s. It will not be able to withstand the tanks that Russia supplies to Syria today. These are the T-90 tanks that can hit it at much greater distances than the Leopard of our T-90.
Secondly, Syria supplies such artillery systems, multiple launch rocket systems, which are not found in Turkey. These are jet systems of volley fire "Smerch", "Hurricane" and heavy flamethrower systems TOC-1A "Sunshinek". The value of the "Smerch" system is that it allows you to ensure the defeat of groups of enemy troops to the entire operational depth of building corps and even an army scale to 70 km, thereby ensuring the defeat of the enemy artillery group. "Hurricane" has a range of order of 35 km, ensures the defeat of not only the first but also the second echelon of the operational structure of the enemy troops. "Sun" has a range of about 6000 m and is a powerful means of fire destruction, which is able to destroy infantry and armored vehicles on the battlefield in large areas. Moreover, there is practically no possibility to hide in various fortifications from such a system that uses thermobaric ammunition.
It should be understood that the Turkish Kurds are unlikely to remain indifferent. Today, in the eastern regions of Turkey, in areas of compact residence of the Kurdish population, there is in fact an uprising of the Kurds. To suppress it, Turkey has already allocated 2-x army corps there. And these army corps are not able to fully suppress this uprising. With the onset of the onslaught of the Turkish troops, it can be absolutely certain that through a virtually transparent border between the areas controlled by Kurds in Syria and the Kurdish population in Turkey, there will be a sufficient supply of weapons and ammunition to wage an effective war against the Turkish troops. As a result, Turkey will have to fight on two fronts.
Under these conditions, Turkey will approach the situation when economic and human losses will be unacceptable, and it will have to withdraw from this war on two fronts.
What remains to do Turkey and the United States? The United States clearly understands the fact that the defeat of the advancing troops of Turkey will mean the victory of Russia in this region and there is no chance that they will regain control in this region, at least keep it at an acceptable level. Under these conditions, the United States will take measures to divert Russia to some other direction. The likely scenario in this case could be an attack from the Ukrainian Kiev junta on the DPR and LPR. In this case, Russia will have to scatter its efforts, supporting both the Syrians, and the Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics, and resolve issues of diplomatic and material and technical support. It is quite possible that serious measures will be taken to exert economic pressure on Russia. One such measure could be the blockade of the movement of Russian trucks through the Baltic States. Through Poland, the blockade already exists. For Russia, then there will be serious problems with the organization of interaction with Europe.
Saudi Arabia also has its own interest in order to maintain and regain control of the Islamic state, so Riyadh will also begin to take measures on the economic pressure on Russia. One of the most effective measures could be the collapse of oil prices, somewhere up to 10-15 and below dollars in a relatively short period of time, measured in half a year or several months.
Under these conditions, the Russian leadership and Russia will find themselves in a difficult economic situation, which is constantly, purposefully exacerbated by the economic block of the Russian government, aimed at shaking the political and economic situation in the country. Privatization, an insane policy in the field of education, social and medical support, combined with artificially inflated food prices, can lead to a revolutionary situation in Russia.
Liberal circles, as in February 1917, can initiate processes to eliminate the current leader from power. As a result, it is possible to create conditions under which significant contingents of special operations forces of Western countries and ideologically motivated militants from Ukraine can enter the territory of Russia across the border with Ukraine, as well as by air. At the same time, it must be assumed that one of the areas of action for measures to destabilize the situation in the country will be the neutralization of the management of Russian nuclear forces. For this, steps can be taken to seize the buildings of the General Staff, the center of command of the national defense, some of the country's nuclear facilities.
After the disorganization of control at the strategic level by the armed forces, especially the nuclear complex, when favorable conditions develop for it, the United States and its allies will be inspired by the United States to discuss the problem of protecting the Russian nuclear potential, international control over it in order to prevent this nuclear potential from falling into the hands of terrorists. Probably, the United States in these conditions will be able to obtain consent for the United States and NATO rapid reaction forces, after landing in certain regions, to take control of nuclear facilities and, first of all, nuclear weapons.
These military actions will be perceived as an invasion, and parts of the Russian army will begin hostilities against these troops. At the same time, given that the strategic management link will be largely disorganized, our military operations will be sporadic, poorly coordinated. NATO troops with the support of aviation will be able to repel possible attacks of disorganized troops.
And then it was created already today in the Baltic States, in Poland, and in the long term in Ukraine, the bases of the division and double-based US brigades after completing personnel from the continent, the US will form strike groups and move to occupy our country. China, facing the dilemma of the seizure of Russian territory by Western troops by NATO troops, realizes that in this case it loses the source of raw materials that Russia now has for China, and, realizing that Russian troops are not able to render serious resistance to these armies, will take steps to occupy Eastern and Western Siberia to the Urals. Japan will also take offensive actions, landing troops on the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin in order to occupy, and perhaps also part of the territory of Kamchatka. The United States will launch a landing operation in order to capture the territory of Kamchatka. After that, the Russian Federation will cease to exist, not being able to respond with a nuclear strike.
Something like this could develop a scenario for the defeat of our country by NATO forces under the leadership of the United States. And the question arises before us: what to do to prevent this from happening? First, first of all, all healthy monetary forces in Russia need to realize that defeating Russia means the collapse of their property and the collapse of their entire well-being. Secondly, it should be well understood by high-ranking officials, who will also be threatened by, if not death, ruin and the tribunal. Thirdly, the patriotic forces of Russia need to realize that in the present conditions in no case can not succumb to the temptation to overthrow this government. In no case can not join the liberal wave.
For the authorities, the question of exile of the Fifth Column from the highest echelons of power must be solved mainly. Measures should be taken on the real import substitution of high-tech products in Russia. The central element of this event should be the total and free nationalization of the strategic resources and facilities of Russia: the entire energy sector, the minerals sector, the transport infrastructure, all defense industry enterprises, the high-tech products enterprises associated with them, and the information infrastructure. The property can be left only those objects that do not need centralized planning. After such nationalization, a transition to centralized development planning of the country is necessary.
Under these conditions, it is possible to revive the economic potential of the Russian Federation in 10-12 years and restore the branches of high-tech industry destroyed in 90-e - 2000-e years. The complex of these measures, on the one hand, will allow creating the basis for recreating the Russian economy, and on the other, will create in the eyes of the population the image of the president as a real defender of the country. When taking all the above measures, social justice will be restored, and the people will be ready to endure any decisions to save the country. Thus, the possibility of restoring the country's potential will be provided, conditions will be created to eliminate the possibility of destabilizing the situation in the country, and therefore the possibility of a NATO military invasion of Russia is excluded.
Reflecting on additional measures to counter a possible invasion, they often speak of the need to accelerate the development of the Arctic. However, the development of the Arctic today solves other tasks: it is a section of spheres of influence, control over resources, nothing more. And the flight path for military aviation is not decisive. The creation of a system like "6" could be much more powerful tool for deterring the West. This is a mega-weapon that is capable of initiating destructive, large-scale geophysical processes, and a large number of warheads are not required to initiate these processes. The warheads of this weapon will have to have power, measured not by units, but by hundreds and more megatons. We already have the means of delivering such weapons.
The system "Status-6", involving the creation of torpedoes with a nuclear power plant and a range, based on this, measured in tens of thousands of nautical miles, judging from the image in the picture that was presented on the Internet, may have a weight of about 15 tons. A strike with such a warhead on the volcano Yellowstone instantly initiates an explosion, and will destroy the United States along with Canada and the northern part of South America, simultaneously destroying half of Europe. Or a few units of such ammunition can be blown up along the Atlantic rift of the middle part of the Atlantic Ocean, this idea is still Academician Sakharov, and then the resulting gravitational wave from a nuclear explosion will create mega-tsunami height of about 400 meters and wash away all life to a depth of 15000 km from the coast. In the other direction will go another wave, which will wash away Europe.
The presence of such weapons systems, the very fact of their existence, will force the Western world to think ten times before launching a military operation against Russia. The Chinese, Arab, Latin American elite are people with moral standards, it is difficult to talk with them, but they keep their word. The Anglo-Saxon elite is not a negotiable community in principle. They can only be spoken to from a position of strength. For the first time, they sat down at the negotiating table in 1972, and they began to talk about reducing nuclear weapons precisely with the advent of the R-6 OTTH “Satan” rocket and global missiles based on them that could change the range around 40000 km, could approach the US any direction, which excluded the possibility of creating a missile defense system against such weapons. If we have such weapons systems, they will crawl on all fours to negotiate peace with us.