Military Review

Red in the Baltics

Pentagon consultants are ready to surrender Riga and Tallinn without a fight

Analysts from the "thought factory" are ready to stop the hypothetical Russian aggression in the Baltic States for 2,7 billion dollars a year. Probably, for a large amount, they will agree to head the next “invasion of two languages”.

The American research center RAND, since its establishment in 1948, has been advising the Pentagon and working on orders from US government organizations, conducting research on national security issues, has come to a disappointing conclusion: as a result of a military conflict with NATO, Russian troops will be able to occupy Riga and Tallinn in two or three of the day

Red in the BalticsThe RAND report, published on the website of the corporation, presents the results of theoretical modeling and exercises. The project involved analysts from the center, civilian and military experts, including the US Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps, the US General Staff in Europe, and the NATO naval command.

The aim of the project is to study the forms and likely outcomes of a Russian invasion of the Baltic countries. The conclusion is clear: at present, NATO is not in a position to protect the territory of its most “vulnerable” to potential aggression of the participating countries.

After the initial tactical defeat, NATO "has a limited number of response scenarios, and all are bad," namely: a counteroffensive associated with the risk of a nuclear escalation of the conflict (the probability of success when using only conventional means is insignificant); reduction of positions to the “second cold war” variant with the border in Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia between the blocks.

"Blue" no chance

The currently deployed NATO forces and the national armies of the states bordering on Russia in Europe are able to withstand the pressure for only a few days. In less than 60 hours (depending on the scenario), Russian troops will reach Tallinn and Riga. This is the result of a series of military strategy games held during the summer of 2014 - Spring of 2015, by RAND.

In addition to the numerical advantage of the Armed Forces (22 battalion, which is significantly less compared to the times of the Soviet Union), analysts of the “thought factory” put the following positions in favor of Russia:

-the presence of a pro-Russian minority (the Russian-speaking population and the so-called non-citizens);
-geographical factor: to Tallinn and Riga closer to the borders of Russia than, for example, from Poland; impassable swampy terrain, which is dotted with lakes and rivers, restricting the use of wheeled military equipment;
-the presence of the Kaliningrad enclave splitting the general front line;
- low probability that the local elites of the Baltic States will defend their cities to the last person.

The available NATO military forces appear to be extremely insufficient, especially those formed on the basis of the Baltic countries themselves: mostly light-armed, not having an adequate level of tactical mobility and poorly equipped to deal with an armored enemy. The Alliance does not have in its territory deployed formations equipped with basic combat tanks. To counter Russian MBT, the Stryker armored vehicles are clearly insufficient. The Kaliningrad region, with its sufficiently powerful air defense system, is able to deter air attacks.

Very high density of artillery fire, superiority in tactical and operational-tactical strike force (ten artillery battalions) do not leave NATO's infantry a chance even for a successful retreat — only destruction on the ground.

Competent opponent

Theoretically, the NATO Air Force is able to take a heavy tribute from the advancing Russian forces. But in combat conditions, the Russians, as “reasonably competent adversary,” using their aviation and effective electronic warfare tools offset the technological superiority of the North Atlantic bloc.

It is here, in the “moderate competence” of the Russian army, that lies the reason for the panic of RAND experts. Until now, NATO countries conducted their operations with an overwhelming superiority in aviation, with a qualitative advantage in means of control and electronic warfare, quantitative in terms of the number of combat vehicles, aircraft, ships and cruise missiles. And now the difference is small and the chances of success are not assessed as 100%.

Hence the disappointing conclusion: the actual absence of general air defense, short-range anti-aircraft weapons in the counterattacking US and NATO maneuvering forces aimed at the flank of the advancing armies of Russia will lead to heavy losses.

The powerful Russian Air Force, the means of radio engineering struggle are enough to confront NATO for several days. “The Red Team”, following the results of the simulation, was able to create “bubbles” in space and has enough time to launch massive waves of raids against NATO forces. The result - heavy losses in several battalions and the likely disruption of counterattacks. The factor of unacceptable losses, even in ordinary conflict, is already too much for European vassals of the United States.

To avoid such a scenario in the Baltics, according to RAND experts, the constant presence of seven deployed brigades (three of them heavy tank) and an additional 2,7 billion dollars a year are necessary.

The whole point of the hypothetical “Russian threat” comes down to one phrase: “Give me money!”. Because of the billions of dollars mentioned, part of the funds will go to such virtual games, projects and "scientific" developments. RAND analysts, suppliers of equipment, hygiene products and medicines, logistics operators and other brethren are all waiting for military orders and grants. It is their efforts that are currently swelling up anti-Russian hysteria.

Twilight experts

RAND analysts emanate from absolutely false messages in their constructions:

- Namely, the Baltic States are subject to a strike from Russia;
the Russian-speaking population of these countries is looking forward to the arrival of the “liberators”;
-Russia will officially launch its troops in defense of the Russian-speaking population or will contribute to the creation of local “militia” detachments with their subsequent support.

It’s a sin to blame such experts, because the excitement from the anticipated grants and the notorious “Russian threat”, which has already entered the cyclic cognitive circle of self-motivation, will stagnate the eyes.

In contrast to Ukraine, the Baltic countries are members of NATO, and the 5 clause of the treaty’s charter unequivocally equates an attack on one of the countries to an attack on the entire bloc. Thus, Russia cannot be the initiator of aggression. Hence the conclusion: our country should be provoked to "peace enforcement". According to the scenario with the attack of the Saakashvili regime on South Ossetia.

The Russian-speaking population in the Baltics fully adapted to modern conditions. This is an opportunity to travel around the Eurozone and get out to relatives in Russia. Full freedom in choosing a place to stay. For people accustomed to all this, it is undesirable to change the status quo in any direction.

Therefore, the only chance analysts RAND and their followers - to add fuel to the fire, spinning Russophobic flywheel and hysteria in the media, to initiate radical discriminatory measures against the Russian-speaking population at the state level, to support pro-fascist parties on the model and likeness of Ukraine, to create an occasion to protest and performance.

The third and probably the most important antithesis: the ratio of "light" and "heavy" compounds, the need to deploy new air forces on airfields in Sweden, the provision of air defense units of the near radius, and much more, stated in the RAND recommendations, indicates anything not about "defensive strategy."

Interception initiative

Today, even in a nightmare, we cannot imagine Russia initiating an attack on a sovereign state. All foreign policy actions and actions of the country are purely tactical, situational and reciprocal. Be it the Crimea, Ukraine or Syria.

We accept the challenge only because in the absence of an answer, chaos and instability will be transferred to the territory of our country. The balance of forces will change, Russia will lose its last allies, and the ring of unfriendly regimes around our borders will finally close.

Asymmetrical, medium-term and long-term plans, strategies and actions are needed. At a minimum, we can initiate such studies, raise a debate in the media to discredit and discredit Russophobic ideas.

Russia needs its own “thought factories” - thinking and acting faster, more assertive, asymmetrical and not as costly as its colleagues from NATO. We need analytical centers operating at the level of the media, the blogosphere, informal political communication, NGO networks, tools of “humanitarian cooperation”, and other structural elements of the Russian world itself. The points of application of their forces - the whole planet, the territory of NATO countries as well.
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  1. Samen
    Samen 2 March 2016 14: 45
    The Pentagon and working on orders from US government organizations, conducting research on national security issues, came to the disappointing conclusion: as a result of a military conflict with NATO, Russian troops will be able to occupy Riga and Tallinn in two to three days.

    Zhirinovsky said they were lying. The truth is worse: in 2-3 hours! )))))))
    1. cniza
      cniza 2 March 2016 14: 46
      But why, and they need an enemy and a threat to knock out grandmas.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Giant thought
      Giant thought 2 March 2016 14: 49
      We don’t need the Baltic midwinter at all, let the EU choke on it.
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 2 March 2016 14: 54
        We will pass by without even noticing!
    4. papas-57
      papas-57 2 March 2016 20: 10
      Money money money. And we will give more and run NATO to the Atlantic.
    5. The comment was deleted.
  2. Zomanus
    Zomanus 2 March 2016 14: 45
    People, read the article here.
    Chet is restless to me after reading this ...
    Maybe offtopic, non-format, but somehow alarming.
    1. drilled
      drilled 2 March 2016 14: 56
      I doubt this conversation. Rather like fiction, fantasy on the topic. Just because even a "good friend" for such words would be rolled up by anyone in the Pyndostan face)))
    2. avva2012
      avva2012 2 March 2016 15: 25
      People, read the article here.
      Chet is restless to me after reading this ...
      Maybe offtopic, non-format, but somehow alarming.

      I read further what they write in the comments. I think not everything is so bad with intelligence. I especially liked the answer, in terms of "nu-nu, demigod, shares his plans to conquer the world with a grimy aborigine."
    3. marna
      marna 2 March 2016 15: 38
      Quote: Zomanus
      Maybe offtopic, non-format, but somehow alarming.

      This article is at least a year old. An opus from the series about how the United States will be fine in 50 years, and everyone else, especially in Russia, is not good. There are analogs in the network, the sea - and forecasts and predictions and all other nonsense. Yes, for the first time it can get through, but the next time it reads an ironic smile. In the best traditions of Amers - all fools, we are alone smart. Face pragmatic China with no less pragmatic India. Well, it would be okay with China and Japan, and India with Pakistan ... so there’s nothing to trifle with, immediately China and India, the rest, apparently, will immediately give up or quietly and peacefully wait for their turn. Do they themselves believe in this? ... Dreaming is not harmful.
  3. drilled
    drilled 2 March 2016 14: 46
    give! Can't NATO stop us? Learn from the hohloputs: as a result of the "games of the General Staff of the Armed Forces" they deduced that they would stop us at the Dnieper, inflicting losses as much as 20 thousand people, losing only 5-6))). They are Ms. cyborgs! And what are you?!))) You should learn from them, unfortunate breedloves, and beg for weapons!
  4. PBF
    PBF 2 March 2016 14: 51
    Sprats are not all how to calm down. fool It is necessary to be friends, not to fight. winked
    1. 2С5
      2С5 3 March 2016 05: 58
      ... sprats do not live on their own, although they could well ... the shashniki buy the top of the states surrounding Russia by any means (since you print green money, I don’t want to) and, accordingly, "pour kerosene" into the hysteria about "Russian aggression" And to be honest , then all these planners and predictors with strategists are already tired ... two years of nothing new ... boring things! sad
  5. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 2 March 2016 14: 51
    But do we really need it - to Tallinn and Riga in tanks?
  6. Alex von Dorn
    Alex von Dorn 2 March 2016 14: 54
    And why are they clinging to this unfortunate Baltic. Why does she need Russia to eat all their sprats? It is clear that this is an occasion to cut 2,7 billion dollars. Such a pretty amount, and let the black dad fork out overseas. The United States is not doing very well in the economy, but there’s an additional waste. Bend faster, and Russia will wait, not the first time.
  7. maxim1987
    maxim1987 2 March 2016 15: 06
    [quote = Alex von Dorn] Why does Russia need to eat all their sprats? [/ quote

    not all is needed. only Narva and Ivan the city
    1. pensioneree
      pensioneree 2 March 2016 15: 45
      Not the fact that the locals will change. Business and nothing more.
    2. Moore
      Moore 2 March 2016 15: 46
      Quote: maximNNX
      not all is needed. only Narva and Ivan the city

      Nothing that Ivan the city in the Russian Federation is located? Or do you have to give it first?
  8. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 2 March 2016 15: 09
    "- a low probability that the local elite of the Baltic states will defend their cities to the last man"

    Wow! Even such a point about the heroes worked out ...

    Pisi: Hollywood is far away ...
    1. pensioneree
      pensioneree 2 March 2016 15: 55
      In the 90s it was possible to buy Kalash-greedy.
  9. 34 region
    34 region 2 March 2016 15: 12
    Good analysis! You can supplement it. With the concentration of Russian troops at the border, the entire elite will hastily pack their bags. At the first volleys, they quickly move out of the country. The army defends the economic interests of the state. What will NATO protect there if the economy is not there. With the movement of Russian troops, tolerant Europe will joyfully run to meet Russian tanks (otherwise the Arabs will devour them!). Who will fight with Russia? Remember the psychology of amers. Crush mass. Although NATO will have a numerical superiority in manpower, there will be only a few who want to fight. Do they fight a lot with refugees today? A lot of volunteers to fight against ISIS?
  10. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 2 March 2016 15: 15
    Wash the lawns, learn the Russian language, drive out the Natsiks, leave the EU, and then offer to mark yourself, that is, "capture"!
    1. Aitvaras
      Aitvaras 3 March 2016 12: 05
      We already know the Russian language very well. Many Lithuanians have at home complete collections of their favorite Russian classics in Russian. Vilnius University has a Russian language department. Recently, a study was carried out in Lithuanian schools, which showed that the second foreign language is Russian, and 67% of schoolchildren chose to study. We have lived with Russians in one state for hundreds of years, your mentality is familiar to us. "... Russia can only be trusted ... "This is what gives us the competence to believe that now Russia is a real threat to the sovereignty of the Baltic states. I completely agree with the Author that it is necessary to urgently deploy tank brigades of NATO allies in our countries.
  11. Aleksandr1959
    Aleksandr1959 2 March 2016 15: 21
    What for these Baltic Extinctions needed? Loafers feed? Enough, they fed under the USSR. Let them catch up. Their industry, which at one time was an all-union brand, they roasted. What was the destruction of the WEF, Radio Plant named after Popov, Riga Carriage Building Plant (produced electric trains for the entire USSR and the countries of the social camp), Auto Electrical Appliance, RAF.
    And now at the direction of the mayor of Riga Nil Ushakov, drunk to amazement English, German and other EU tourists who arrived in Riga for the weekend "to relax to the fullest" are loaded in packs onto planes on the way back. Riga, in Soviet times, was distinguished by a high concentration of "priestesses of love", and now ... freedom, democracy .. wassat
    1. pensioneree
      pensioneree 2 March 2016 15: 57
      Anaologichno TAANILINN
  12. Spartanez300
    Spartanez300 2 March 2016 15: 22
    The Baltic states are three countries of beatings, there is practically nothing of their own (army, navy, enterprises) and they are reluctant to create, but they are specialists in this with outstretched hands.
  13. VB
    VB 2 March 2016 15: 37
    The author does not understand at all how Russians in the Baltics relate to their current situation. Russia abandoned them, but if all of them were given Russian citizenship, you would all have seen how they adapted in the Baltic states. I know all this firsthand, I’ve been there all the time.
    1. gamer
      gamer 2 March 2016 18: 37
      No need to "la-la", They had the opportunity to leave for Russia, and you say that they were abandoned!
  14. Nikolay82
    Nikolay82 2 March 2016 15: 46
    the author is apparently not aware of what is happening in the Estonian media, read the Russian version of Since the spring of 2014, there has been a constant Russophobic injection. Local Russians are constantly "checked" for loyalty. North-east of Estonia is a Russian region (Estonians 20%). Narva is the third most populous city in Estonia - Estonians are 3%. Until 91, Russians were persuaded to accept the independence of Estonia calmly. After 91, the economic ousting of the Russians began. The region was industrial, almost all industrial enterprises were closed for 15 years. There are 2,5 times more unemployed than the Estonian average, officially, but in reality it is 4 times more. The salary of the overwhelming majority of people is 2 times lower than the average in Estonia (400 - 500 euros). The Estonian "overseers" of the territory themselves consider the region to be conditionally Estonian. Of course, the majority of Russians are not happy with this situation, to put it mildly. For those who served in the SA, only a spark is needed. Although people understand that Donbass-2 will not be in Estonia.
  15. Jogr1945
    Jogr1945 2 March 2016 15: 47
    And it all comes down to one and the same forces that we won’t win - we must transfer more troops and more equipment: Here’s a new excuse for building up the group in the Baltic countries. Then they will do the same exercises with their northern neighbors in Sweden, Norway and the result is one — we won’t win — we need more troops — until around them like locusts
  16. triglav
    triglav 2 March 2016 16: 00
    All foreign policy actions and actions of the country are purely tactical, situational and responsive.
    And all on time.
  17. South Ural
    South Ural 2 March 2016 16: 13
    Yes, plans are really needed, and not only in foreign policy actions, but also in domestic politics. An example of the Crimean War of 1853-56 is enough to understand the role and significance of internal Russian processes on the outcome of its wars.
  18. Kibl
    Kibl 2 March 2016 17: 37
    I don’t know for Estonia and Lithuania, but the Latvian army is just a circus tent. They are worn with decommissioned or donated military equipment like fools with shells, beats, beggars. I am especially touched by the shape, the pixel color of the Sahara sand and this is in the country of forests and swamps !! ! Defects !!!
  19. mr.grin19z
    mr.grin19z 2 March 2016 18: 58
    yes they are fighting there in their own country on the maps of the mind God did not give them here and invent all heresy
  20. Nikolay82
    Nikolay82 2 March 2016 19: 16
    on YouTube video "For this video the commander of the fire brigade was fired. Parade in Estonia. 24.02.2016"
    The man was overwhelmed with emotion. Rescuers are being cut, insurance medicine is cut, and the administration of the territory has only one concern, "Protection from barbaric Russia."
  21. Kostya Andreev
    Kostya Andreev 2 March 2016 19: 33
    Who could leave, but there were many who could not because there was no place to go, for example, my neighbor, they had no place to go to in Russia. And recall that in Russia then it was. and the person chooses where it is better. I do not blame anyone.
    Sometimes I can communicate with Russians from the Baltic states, they are different from us Russians! I don’t know how to describe it. I can’t find the words yet. as I think the general is just that. that we speak the same language
    1. sharp-lad
      sharp-lad 2 March 2016 19: 59
      Differences are also very sensitive. Sometimes I, Russians, simply cannot understand you. But I worry about Russia with all my heart.
      1. Kostya Andreev
        Kostya Andreev 2 March 2016 20: 12
        give an example, if not difficult?
    2. The comment was deleted.
  22. Calter
    Calter 2 March 2016 20: 25
    Quote: Zomanus
    People, read the article here.
    Chet is restless to me after reading this ...
    Maybe offtopic, non-format, but somehow alarming.

    Well, yes, this is not a retelling of the real story, this is the sound of common truths in an entertaining wrapper. And let's play for the whites too?
    We need a party whose program will feature this set of measures. Further, this party should get a majority in parliament in order to completely block the resistance (sabotage) of black influence agents from other parties (while not allowing these agents to join its ranks). And then nominate his presidential candidate so that he won them (even though at the initial stage his votes will be significantly lower than 90%).
    Really do it? Let's reason.
    Today’s ruling party (EdRo) will not allow a new power to enter the political Olympus. For them, this means weaning from the feeder, but they are doing well now: the work is dustless, and even official earnings are much higher than the national average. In elections to the fullest, the administrative resource will be included. Moreover, I’m almost sure that this new party (let's call it the Revival of Russia - BP) will not even be allowed to the public rostrum so that they announce their program. Well, in the most difficult case, you can use special services and even the army. In addition to the administrative resource, EP has the support of large businesses. They are also happy with everything in the existing system: the administrative burden is more than paying off with buns from a monopoly position in the market (and is it burden, is it a progressive tax, and they can’t introduce it), in case of crisis, you can put your snout into the state feeder with impunity, and as a bonus, excess profits from corrupt shadow schemes.
    So the newborn BP needs a rich sponsor. Sponsor must have:
    - Access to a significant part of the Russian media
    - Fin. resources that can compensate for the administrative resource of EP and subsidies from key financial movers
    - Own Security Services and PMCs
    Is there such an uncle inside the country? Or maybe foreign countries will help us? I think the question is rhetorical. Yes, even if such a rich "daddy" is found, then such a scenario is fraught with civil war (in which opponents from the international arena will definitely not fail to warm their hands). So the author's vodka cried recourse
    The only thing we can influence is to go to the polls. Vote against parliamentary monopolies. Don't give a damn about who: even for Kasyanov and Nemtsov, mustard plasters and poultices (+ - 5%) will still not help political corpses. Or spoil the ballot, if the column "Against all" has been removed - why not a civil position?
    As a result, the most change will be when no party gets more than 49%. What does it mean? This means that the opposition, united, can block anti-people’s bills, and push the laws really ripe. Will they do it? Of course they will. In order not to lose the position and votes of the voters before the next election, or maybe to get new ones. Moreover, then the ruling party will lose its administrative resources and, most likely, will turn into a stinking political corpse. But in any case, until there is competition between parties for the votes, the servants of the people will not cease to be masters of life.
    1. 1rl141
      1rl141 2 March 2016 23: 39
      Quote: Calter
      And let's play for the whites too?

      It’s pointless to play even for white, even for black, even for red according to the rules of a fraudster. To win, you must not play according to his rules, and just in case, keep a bat at hand. As long as we have a vigorous bat at hand, you can change the rules of the game.
  23. Energy
    Energy 2 March 2016 21: 43
    The picture is suitable)))
  24. gammipapa
    gammipapa 2 March 2016 22: 10
    Zomanust well, and threw the little article, well done, not a pity for the time spent, all as if by notes. It’s sad that White just won’t play as it should. Why not ? - yes, all this has already been voiced from different sources for almost 10 years, almost word for word, but those who need to change the situation (there is a catastrophic time) are happy with everything, and if they are not happy, then the fight, in their opinion, is not worth the candle, better to give in so far.
  25. TOR2
    TOR2 2 March 2016 22: 20
    Here it’s even funnier.
    In general, NATO wants to apply a new tactic.
    Back in the 80s, advanced tactics were being developed in the United States and Great Britain, which would probably be used in the 90s if the Cold War with the USSR continued. It is about using a method called “swarming”. This is a coordinated use of a large number of small units that never concentrate anywhere, but constantly deliver small blows, as if a swarm of bees or destructs a large animal.

    It will not come to especially stubborn Atlantists that it is better for them to "swarm" overseas. Considering that part of the population is hostile, information about the "swarm" will be quickly merged. I wonder how they are going to act when the swarm's tail is pressed. Given the limited resources of the "swarm", the fur-bearing animal will visit it with a high degree of probability.
  26. Pete mitchell
    Pete mitchell 3 March 2016 01: 28
    "they will be able to occupy Riga and Tallinn in two or three days" - they are such optimists / :-)