Military Review

The analytical program of Mikhail Leontyev "However," 28 February 2016

19



The armistice agreement reached by Russia and the United States is the result of the disparate groups that fought with the Syrian government on the verge of a military catastrophe. However, hello!

French political scientist, journalist Thierry Maysan: "President Vladimir Putin bases his policy in Syria on fighting jihadists. Not on the support of the Syrian Arab Republic, not on the support of President Bashar al-Assad, and he intends to oppose jihadists, because he announced from 2012. that the Syrian problem is also an internal Russian problem. Because he, and only he understood the logic of this system. Russia today can recreate the situation that the world saw during the 1936-1939 period. In 1936, the British king was on the side of the Nazis. to England financed the Nazis in Germany .... And what Russia has done - it has changed the political line and the United States shifted to a position against the jihadists, even though it is the United States have created this system jihadists. "

Thierry Meyssan, a French orientalist, spoke about the possibility of a Russian-American agreement on Syria as early as 2012. An agreement in which no one believed, which was systematically disrupted by American hawks who oversaw Islamist groups, and which Obama himself believed only in the face of the threat of a military victory of the Russian-Syrian-Iranian coalition.

Syrian President’s Advisor on Political and Informational Issues, Bussein Shaaban: “As for the US’s statements on a certain Plan B, we don’t know what the US Secretary of State has in mind. Our Plan B is very clear - we will continue to fight terrorism.”

Translated into Russian - there is no plan "B". Failure to plan "A" means a return to the offensive of the Syrian army with the support of the allies. Thus, the commitment of the United States to Plan A is the only way to achieve peace in Syria on the minimum acceptable conditions for the United States. Thus, Plan A is not only Putin’s victory, it is also Obama’s victory over himself and over the ultra-influential group of American adventurers pushing America to a catastrophe.

A prelude to the current truce, not the consequence, as it seems to some, was a rejection of each other coalition members of the Saudi ideas from ground operations in Syria. Bahrain first, followed by Qatar, then Saudi Arabia, in the negotiation process involving all the relevant parties to the conflict, in addition to LIH, Dzhabhat-en-Nusra, outlawed. And Turkey!

Turkey is the only one left behind the process along with ISIL and a bunch of pro-Turkish groups that have refused an armistice.
French political analyst Thierry Maysan: “Turkey has not signed this agreement between Russia and the United States. This is a formality, but it demonstrates its position. What are they going to do? They are going to return to Syrian territory to attack the Kurds, who are allies of Moscow and Washington. Having done this, Turkey is just grossly violating the truce, violating the sovereignty of the Syrian Arab Republic and entering into an armed conflict with the allies of Moscow and Washington. I think this is a trap for Turkey, and that in the coming weeks or, at the latest, in the coming months we will see the collapse of Mr. Erdogan’s system. "

Well, as for "weeks and months", Maysan may be in a hurry, but the fact that Erdogan has driven himself into a corner and that the Russian-American local agreement in some way includes Erdogan is quite possible.

Regnum, referring to the Turkish Hurriyet, cites the statement of the Turkish military following the meeting with President Erdogan: "The Turkish army will not step on Syrian territory without a decision of the UN Security Council, and such a decision cannot be made, given the position of Russia."

This statement, in addition to the direct text, contains a rather obvious subtext: the Turkish army sends President Erdogan in the direction of international law. The keen desire of the Turkish army to do this is quite understandable - Erdogan not only shoved the Turkish army from the political pedestal, but also halted half of the generals. But it is completely impracticable without the consent of the Americans. And this is a very bad call for Erdogan, who has lost the opportunity to maneuver between the Americans and Russia.
Originator:
http://www.1tv.ru/
19 comments
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  1. avvg
    avvg 29 February 2016 08: 59
    +6
    Everything can be expected from Turkey, do not think that Erdogan will listen to Washington.
    1. ImPerts
      ImPerts 29 February 2016 09: 03
      +2
      From Turkey, the Saudis and Qatar. And from the last two to a lesser extent than from Turkey. With all the desire, the Gulf states will not be able to conduct a military operation, there will not be enough strength. They can buy someone. Taking into account everything and everyone, except money, a potential executor should have the opportunity to coincide with his desires, and this is Turkey.
      1. Diana Ilyina
        Diana Ilyina 29 February 2016 09: 15
        10
        Quote: ImPerts
        From Turkey, the Saudis and Qatar. And from the last two to a lesser extent than from Turkey. With all the desire, the Gulf states will not be able to conduct a military operation, there will not be enough strength. They can buy someone. Taking into account everything and everyone, except money, a potential executor should have the opportunity to coincide with his desires, and this is Turkey.


        I agree with you, except for this moment: opportunities must coincide with desires, and this is Turkey. Turkey has a desire to become the Ottoman Empire, but the possibilities are unlikely to be enough! Yes, without the participation of Russia, Erdogan could count on victory, but it did not grow together!
        1. WKS
          WKS 29 February 2016 09: 41
          +1
          This statement, in addition to the direct text, contains a rather clear subtext - the Turkish army sends President Erdogan in the direction of international law.

          Sending in the direction of international law in translation into Russian will sound much more concise.
      2. Dam
        Dam 29 February 2016 09: 22
        +4
        For too long no one has brought up the Saudis and the Qatars. For some reason, these dwarf-eaten dwarfs decided to play the arbiters of world destinies. How could one become poor and dead as a result of such games. And Perdogan completely skidded on historical analogies. Than everything for the Ottomans ended, he forgot. Time is now not right to cut out a quietly quiet couple of millions of Kurds. Something seems to me that the borders on BV will be redrawn very soon
        1. Diana Ilyina
          Diana Ilyina 29 February 2016 09: 31
          +7
          Quote: Damm
          Something seems to me that the borders on BV will be redrawn very soon


          Especially the borders of Turkey can change, with such a policy of their authorities! Erdogan and Davutoglu clearly did not learn the history of Russian-Turkish relations, and if they did, they have a very short memory, but this is easily remedied!
        2. Dmitry 2246
          Dmitry 2246 29 February 2016 09: 40
          +3
          By shooting down a Russian plane, Erdogan "killed" Turkey, only they did not feel it yet, continuing to move, but the wound will grow and lead this state to agony and disintegration.
          And I also want the Saudis to answer for their Khattabs and other freaks.
    2. vovanpain
      vovanpain 29 February 2016 09: 08
      +8
      Quote: avvg
      Everything can be expected from Turkey, do not think that Erdogan will listen to Washington.

      Erdogan seems to be tired of everything already, they seem to strangle him along with the whole family, the Kurds are already threatening to arrange a Kurdish spring for Erdogan, Turkey has blackmailed Turkey with refugees, NATO draws into conflict with Russia, oh, and you’ll play a fool, you’ll have to run to Petruha, and then the chair also swinging.
  2. shibi
    shibi 29 February 2016 09: 01
    +5
    Erdogad has to escape from Turkey ...
    At least to Parashenki.
    1. rf xnumx
      rf xnumx 29 February 2016 09: 11
      +8
      Quote: sibi
      Erdogad’s time to flee Turkey ... At least to Parashenki.
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 29 February 2016 09: 02
    0
    Abandoning plan "A" means a return to the offensive of the Syrian army with the support of the allies.

    So and only so. Americans should understand this, so let them use other plans for a specific purpose.
  4. Taygerus
    Taygerus 29 February 2016 09: 20
    0
    They squeezed Erdogan, and that’s starting to freak out, but I think the troops will be afraid of the NATO roof is not the same, it will continue to arrange provocations
  5. Hooks
    Hooks 29 February 2016 09: 28
    +2
    I completely agree with the previous comments, but I would like to see him in Rostov, in the district military court.
  6. silent
    silent 29 February 2016 09: 36
    0
    Exactly for him only to flee to Ukraine, Poroshenko has probably already sent him an invitation or hinted. Something like, "Well, if that, come in, we all have a stigma in the CANNON."
  7. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 29 February 2016 09: 48
    +9
    Erdogan, Syria, etc. and so on, this is of course important, but when will they talk about our internal problems and isn't it time to turn towards those who harm the people of Russia no worse than our "sworn friends" from Washington: is it normal when oil and oil products are everywhere world prices have plummeted, while in Russia they are growing, and our EDRossy (I just want to change the letters in this word) are raising excise taxes on gasoline and diesel, it is clear that they are doing this to please oligarchs who are losing profits abroad, they are replenishing them at the expense of our people, hiding behind the need to replenish the budget, we are not against, but it is better to do this at the expense of companies that have actually stolen our mineral wealth ??? !!! We will not forget anything and these servants of "moneybags" will regret it in the fall! Personally, I will vote for anyone, but not for the United Russia party, which has betrayed its people! So the author, being a participant in this outrage, fulfills his "ration", but before I even liked him !! I've taken the old bills of housing and communal services for 2001 and compared it with the current growth by almost 22-24 times, and my pension, oh, how lagging behind, well, where is the growth of my well-being? About the prices, I generally keep quiet ... Russia is the richest country, and its people live like the Papuans or even worse!
    1. kepmor
      kepmor 29 February 2016 11: 00
      +1
      I agree 200% with you!
      Our filthy government does nothing but "powder the brains" of the common people with Ukraine, Syria, Turkey and further down the list!
      Like, look how bad life is in "dill" ... and the states are about to bend, and their "green" will just become "peepifax outhouse" ... Turkey will soon disintegrate ... And one blah blah blah po " to the box and in the internet "-WARNING !!!
      They are inventing some incredible% of ratings for Putin and United Russia. In all the troubles blame the Americans and the notorious "fifth column of liberals"! EdRo generally declared the Communist Party of the Russian Federation the main rival in the elections - that means they are afraid ...
      And the fact that the real threat to the very existence of the Russian Federation is posed by the "six column" of officials and oligarchs - not a word about this! To this chaos - TABOO!
  8. Blondy
    Blondy 29 February 2016 09: 48
    +1
    Eh, Misha, with predictions of the collapse of the dollar did not work out, switched to comments "in pursuit" - as they say, became "smart, like my wife later."
  9. triglav
    triglav 29 February 2016 11: 07
    0
    Erdogan has gone too far. Can't stop now. So they will stop him soon.
  10. uragan114
    uragan114 29 February 2016 12: 25
    0
    "and in which Obama himself believed only in the face of the threat of a military victory for the Russian-Syrian-Iranian coalition."

    Again sucked to victory.