Military Review

The alternative "Minsk-2" exists

37
The alternative "Minsk-2" exists



Today there is almost a consensus of Russia, the United States and the European Union regarding the situation in the Donbas: there is no alternative to Minsk-2.

In my opinion, there is a reasonable alternative to the Minsk agreements. Moreover, it can arrange all the opposing sides to one degree or another. The solution to this problem lies on the surface and is to freeze the conflict.

In many ways, the complex and explosive geopolitical situation that has developed in recent years, forcing the world's leading players to show restraint where there is a potential threat of a global war. The existing status quo in the framework of the formula “neither war nor peace” will be beneficial to all, but with some reservations.

So, we will consider the starting positions of the participants and guarantors of the signing of Minsk-2 before its implementation.

Donbass paid too high a price for finding such a fragile truce. This is the price - thousands of dead civilians and militias. This is the price - crippled destinies, destruction and tears.

That is why about any return LDNR in the Ukraine can not be considered.

After all, the Russian tricolor was raised over the regional administration buildings in Donetsk and Lugansk in the spring of 2014, so that our cities would ever desecrate the Ukrainian flag.

As the defeated side of the Kiev junta, it would be time to learn that control over the border with the Russian Federation was paid in blood and it would be wiser to accept the inevitable.

Another thing is that we understand that the issue of border transfer is one of the last points of the Minsk agreements, and the Ukrainian side will not be able to move so far towards the implementation of Minsk-2.

The first stumbling block for her will be the law on the amnesty of participants in the events in the Donbas. I am sure that the Verkhovna Rada will never accept this law in the form that flows from the Minsk agreements. The Nazis of all stripes will lay down their bones to block its adoption.

The second obstacle will be the infamous special status law, which has already passed the 31 August 2015 strength test. Let me remind you, then, as a result of clashes between the National Guard and the radicals, protesting against the law on decentralization, several policemen were killed in front of the Verkhovna Rada building, and dozens were injured of varying severity.

Consequently, we should not worry about the inevitable return to Ukraine. However, at the diplomatic level, it is necessary to continue the pressure on Kiev in order to force it to unconditionally fulfill Minsk-2.

For the ruling Ukrainian regime, the implementation of the Minsk agreements is a political suicide. Moreover, suicide is still in the process, not after their execution. The widespread opinion that Western curators will press through Ukraine and force it to execute Minsk-2 seems untenable to me. The unprecedented level of Russophobia does not give Kiev the slightest chance to fulfill the will of their employers.

Hence the conclusion that a frozen conflict is an indispensable condition for the survival of the so-called Ukrainian politic.

For Russia, the signing of the Minsk agreements was the only way to stop the extermination of Donbass residents without joining a big war. During the truce, she managed to prevent a social catastrophe, strengthen civil institutions, and help people's republics to form an efficient army.

Freezing the conflict according to the Abkhaz scenario (with the prospect of recognition) will mean the de facto joining of the LDNR into Russia, which will be true in all respects.

Conclusion "Minsk-2" allowed the United States and the European Union, first of all, to save face. They had the opportunity to declare to the world community that, thanks to their diplomatic efforts, the Russian “aggression” was stopped.

The European Union has accumulated a critical mass of unsolved problems, and it would with great pleasure withdraw itself from the Ukrainian problem, but, being a guarantor of the Minsk agreements, it is forced to constantly declare its adherence to the Minsk agreements. I think that the end of the hot phase of this war in any form would fully correspond to European interests.

The American "partners", of course, set as their goal the continuation and expansion of military operations in Ukraine. But their big plans were violated by the unexpected entry of Russia into the Syrian war on the side of the legally elected President Assad.

Going for broke in the Ukrainian direction, the United States will not risk until the geopolitical alignment of the rather complicated situation in Syria finally clarifies. Get two defeats at once in the midst of a presidential campaign for Democrats to die like. Now they need time to choose priorities and outline a future strategy for their actions. They simply do not have time to adequately respond to the rapid geopolitical steps of Vladimir Putin.

In connection with the election campaign in the United States and the lack of a clear position on Syria, freezing the conflict in the Donbas in the short term will not cause a particularly nervous reaction in Washington.

The conclusion suggests itself: a reasonable alternative to the “Minsk-2” exists, and this is not a war, but a freezing of the conflict according to the Abkhaz scenario.

Time objectively works on Russia and the Donbass. The irreversible process of disintegration of the Ukrainian state is rapidly gaining momentum, and it is already impossible to stop it. Let's hope that in the foreseeable future, the entire Southeast of the former Ukraine will certainly join the Donbass.
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  1. guzik007
    guzik007 2 March 2016 08: 51
    +3
    Get Ulster at your side for 20 years?
    1. cniza
      cniza 2 March 2016 09: 01
      +7
      Time objectively works on Russia and the Donbass. The irreversible process of disintegration of the Ukrainian state is rapidly gaining momentum, and it is already impossible to stop it. Let's hope that in the foreseeable future, the entire Southeast of the former Ukraine will certainly join the Donbass.



      Here is the vector of action and prevent death.
      1. Tor5
        Tor5 2 March 2016 10: 06
        +5
        Very reasonable article! Moreover, there are examples.
        1. Mobius
          Mobius 2 March 2016 10: 28
          +4
          Quote: Tor5
          Very reasonable article! Moreover, there are examples.


          Yes, there are examples, and some analogies can be seen. But there is one thing "But", which is an important factor, consisting in the fact that, unlike all the same Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the DPR and LPR, are" put into freeze "in a territorially gnawed form ... With two thirds of the territories occupied by the Nazis.

          This is the fundamental difference. An important "detail" in which, as common truth insists, there is something bad.

          Therefore, deciding the fate of the republics, it is important to consider this fact.

          Or solve the problem in other ways. However, in this case, it will be a little like "freezing" ...
        2. WKS
          WKS 2 March 2016 10: 55
          +3
          The conclusion suggests itself: a reasonable alternative to the “Minsk-2” exists, and this is not a war, but a freezing of the conflict according to the Abkhaz scenario.

          The conflict has already been de facto frozen. Minsk-2 is a fig leaf covering this big fact. What other "Abkhazian scenario"? Each conflict has its own unique "scenario", which is written by a specific political situation. Abkhazia was in one "scenario" until 2008, and now it is in another. If the author hints at the recognition of the independence of Donbass by Russia, then this time has not come yet. Ukraine must first attack some of its own "South Ossetia", and only then after forcing it to peace, Donbass "by its own" forces will free the rest of the Russian lands from Bandera. And then the "Abkhazian scenario" in an expanded version.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. 79807420129
      79807420129 2 March 2016 09: 08
      12
      Quote: guzik007
      Get Ulster at your side for 20 years?

      Yes, everything goes to this, dill after the next cradles and boilers will gather strength and again climb for the next cradles and the end of this edge will not see.
      1. Tor5
        Tor5 2 March 2016 10: 08
        0
        Without the permission of the US, they will not start a war from a slingshot. Alarming shelling - yes, but only for the time being. Until their "pseudo-army" starves to death.
    3. Mobius
      Mobius 2 March 2016 10: 43
      +1
      Quote: guzik007
      Get Ulster at your side for 20 years?


      I hope that those who make decisions do not view such long periods of "conservation of the conflict" as an option.
      Otherwise, everything will come out according to a scenario similar to what is registered in Washington, headquarters and offices like the Central Intelligence Agency.
  2. avvg
    avvg 2 March 2016 08: 56
    +4
    Bandera members are not going to fulfill Minsk-2, preparations for war and war in Donbass are coming from the side of "dill-fascists".
    1. The black
      The black 2 March 2016 09: 04
      +8
      I agree .... In fact, Minsk-2 is the freezing of the conflict, because Bandera will never fulfill the points of the Minsk agreements regarding elections and the special status of Donbass. So the only question is whether the junta decides to unleash a new light-scale war in the Donbass or not .....
  3. andj61
    andj61 2 March 2016 08: 57
    +4
    The conclusion suggests itself: a reasonable alternative to the “Minsk-2” exists, and this is not a war, but a freezing of the conflict according to the Abkhaz scenario.

    Perhaps this can be agreed.
    Time objectively works on Russia and the Donbass. The irreversible process of disintegration of the Ukrainian state is rapidly gaining momentum, and it is already impossible to stop it. Let's hope that in the foreseeable future, the entire Southeast of the former Ukraine will certainly join the Donbass.

    But this is somehow foggy. Two years have already passed. The process, to some extent, of course has begun. But a lot of people - either conceived by propaganda, or simply having their own opinion, even in the South-East of Ukraine choose the independence of Ukraine. They will be used primarily by the current authorities of the country, for which it is not the country's well-being that matters, but the well-being of their own pockets. quality
  4. parusnik
    parusnik 2 March 2016 08: 58
    +3
    I think that the end of the hot phase of this war in any form would be fully consistent with European interests.I would like to ... well, but as the West, it will throw money in Ukraine, scrape it over the bones ... and say in your ear, Potroshenko ... here you will get money for the last and decisive battle, but that would be fast .. for 5 days .. and forget about Donbass .. then we will justify you ..?
  5. Same lech
    Same lech 2 March 2016 09: 03
    +4
    The conclusion of Minsk-2 allowed the United States and the European Union to save face first of all.


    Optimistically, the author looks to the future and I would like to believe in it ... but the truth, as always, is somewhere in between.
    I believe that UKRAINE will be constantly used as an instrument of pressure on both RUSSIA and EUROPE ...
    the main winner in this matter is the USA ...
    therefore, I consider the main and most difficult task of the KREMLIN at the moment to withdraw the USA from the game, while the emissaries of WASHINGTON dominate in KIEV peace and quiet
    anyone in this region.
    1. Mobius
      Mobius 2 March 2016 10: 57
      0
      Quote: The same LYOKHA
      The main and most difficult task of the KREMLIN at the moment is to withdraw the USA from the game, while the emissaries of WASHINGTON reign in peace and tranquility in Kiev
      anyone in this region.


      Perhaps the intentions to respond to ALL probable (and existing already now) challenges of the "hybrid war", this is a stage in the solution of the task you have designated. facing the Kremlin?

      http://warfiles.ru/110434-genshtab-rossii-dast-otvet-po-vsem-frontam-gibridnoy-v

      oyny.html
  6. Mihalich17
    Mihalich17 2 March 2016 09: 08
    +5
    Oh guys! )))
    As my friend battalion commander used to say:
    "One squirrel accidentally tasted beer and realized why she had been collecting nuts all her life!"
  7. Afinogen
    Afinogen 2 March 2016 09: 08
    +4
    in the foreseeable future, the entire Southeast of the former Ukraine will certainly join the Donbass.


    It will be. Everything goes to this. But war cannot be avoided otherwise mattress workers would not spud a bed. They would send the equipment (albeit out of date) of advisers just like that, the war is in their plan.
  8. Armored optimist
    Armored optimist 2 March 2016 09: 09
    +8
    Freezing a conflict is bad, but it happens in fact. We cannot push for its military resolution. Moreover, we can not send troops. Only the kakly themselves, having choked on the ears of that d ..., should demolish the fascist regime and turn to Russia for help. If they do not see clearly, and we sweep away the fascists by force, then it will be in the minds of ukrov not liberation, but occupation. And, in spite of any improvements in their lives, they will then, for a thousand years, whisper to the children that Muscovites have come, they have all broken, distorted their great history, and destroyed the EU. And that if it were not for the invasion, they would have lived a thousand times better and would have ruled Muscovy, and the Russians would be slaves.
  9. Vega
    Vega 2 March 2016 09: 16
    +4
    It will not be possible to freeze everything as is. This will not go either in the republics, or, especially in Kiev. The Kiev authorities simply will not be able to do this, this means the end of their reign.
  10. Mama_Cholli
    Mama_Cholli 2 March 2016 09: 24
    +3
    Do not freeze and then thaw, you need to squeeze dill into dill from the territory of the Eastern Republics. And then recognize them as sovereign states. Only such an alternative is the criminal Minsk treaty.
    1. Stanislas
      Stanislas 2 March 2016 10: 10
      +2
      Quote: Mama_Cholli
      Do not freeze and then thaw, you need to squeeze dill into dill from the territory of the Eastern Republics.
      What does "squeeze" mean? This issue is within the competence of the people of South-East Ukraine. If in Luhansk and Donetsk there is someone to squeeze out, then there is reason to expect that they will be able to squeeze out dill at least beyond the borders of the regions determined by their referendums, the results of which they will be able to reproduce in a normal situation with international observers. It is only necessary to make sure that the militias are able to repel the first blow, to strike back. Then, probably, start an operation to compel Kakelov to peace. How does the situation with Abkhazia not triple you? Moreover, the United States is apparently not ready for the economic support of Ukraine, unlike Georgia in 2008. And the economic situation, as I understand it, contributes to the fact that the militia appeared in other areas, and the squeezing of dill was not so painful for the population of the East. Otherwise, a lot of people in any trouble will think that it is Moscow, Putin and our imperial ambitions that are the cause of all their troubles, and start an old song about independence. How else can you squeeze out with little blood?
      1. Mama_Cholli
        Mama_Cholli 2 March 2016 10: 16
        0
        The militias will have to squeeze out, and we will be helped with everything they can and "with everything they cannot." In this situation, I am not satisfied, first of all, that the AP is located on the territory of the republics. As soon as they leave the administrative borders, then it will be possible to return to the Abkhaz or other option. Now this cannot be done. That's all.
        1. Stanislas
          Stanislas 2 March 2016 10: 43
          -1
          Quote: Mama_Cholli
          As soon as they leave the administrative borders, then it will be possible to return to the Abkhazian or other option. This cannot be done now.
          The moment is subtle and complex. Here I do not presume to argue, because I do not find weighty arguments.
  11. OlegV
    OlegV 2 March 2016 09: 37
    +3
    For Russia, the signing of the Minsk agreements was the only way to stop the extermination of Donbass residents without joining a big war. During the truce, she managed to prevent a social catastrophe, strengthen civil institutions, and help people's republics to form an efficient army.
  12. Mihail55
    Mihail55 2 March 2016 09: 37
    +3
    The fate of Transnistria is guaranteed to Donbass. But the world is better than the mass death of people. It’s easy to wave a saber while sitting on a sofa. God help the long-suffering people of New Russia!
    1. Stanislas
      Stanislas 2 March 2016 10: 58
      +2
      Quote: Michael55
      The fate of Transnistria is guaranteed to Donbass.
      Donbass is not surrounded by hostile states, and what does Transnistria have to do with it?
  13. Vadxnumx
    Vadxnumx 2 March 2016 09: 38
    +5
    A game called "Reasoning" ...
    It was necessary in 2014 not to dissolve the snot, and after Ilovaisk to occupy the entire Left Bank.
    And on the drum of sanction, they would be brought in anyway.
    But, loot begets EVIL!
    On both sides money is made on human grief and blood, those who make it are indifferent to the grief and suffering of the people of Donbass and the grave of the "Invisible Heroes" near Dnepropetrovsk.
    "February 23" 2016, the city of Alchevsk, the elder brother is at home for Holidays, he works in a state institution of the LPR, and his wife is at work because the Alchevsk Metallurgical Plant is under the jurisdiction of Kiev, although the controlling stake belongs to VEB Bank ..., and taxes go to Kiev and salary withholding tax to maintain the ATO.
    People pay Kiev to kill from them ...
    Donbass disappeared from the screens of zombies, now there is Syria, excitedly ...
    Here is a clearing for you to think about.
    Believe the zombie less and think more ...
  14. gas113
    gas113 2 March 2016 09: 47
    +4
    Stillborn Minsk 2 no one was going to perform. Everyone is waiting for the moment when the batch begins again. Dill needs sanctions against Russia and Russia so that the Ukrainian army economically deprived the junta. But the hot phase is inevitable
  15. alex74nur
    alex74nur 2 March 2016 09: 49
    +1
    I fully agree with the author of the article. Minsk-2 is not feasible in the first place for the Kiev junta. The special status of Donbass will entail a chain reaction in other regions. And freezing a conflict (i.e. gaining time) really works for us.
  16. A-Sim
    A-Sim 2 March 2016 09: 58
    +1
    "... the positions of the participants and guarantors of the signing of Minsk-2 before its implementation."

    This is an immediate conceptual mistake - none of the belligerents is interested in the implementation of any "numbered Minsk". By definition, Bandera will not comply - the war did not come to their home. The besieged Donbass have already seen the enemy's incapacity to negotiate. "Freezing Conflict" is an impossible chimera. There is a clash of antagonists and clearly defined principles of division of a country that NEVER existed. This territory, in the absence of patronage, ALWAYS turned into a battlefield.
  17. kapitan92
    kapitan92 2 March 2016 09: 59
    +7
    I believe that the author of the article did not open the topic. The article states the occurrence of events, no more than that....... ". The conclusion suggests itself: a reasonable alternative to Minsk-2 exists, and this is not a war, but a freezing of the conflict according to the Abkhaz scenario." ......
    If the author called the scenario "Abkhazian", it was necessary to concretize the points with reference to "Minsk2" in order to show the alternative. I have a neutral attitude to the article, i.e. no pros and cons. drinks
  18. buywol
    buywol 2 March 2016 10: 01
    +6
    This was not written by a Gorlovka resident, but by a patient from House No. 6. His residents in Gorlovka would tear a ball like an ace. I myself live in Gorlovka. And this cannot be invented even in a nightmare.
  19. Ros 56
    Ros 56 2 March 2016 10: 15
    +4
    Bullshit. Imagine, at 43 we froze the "conflict" with the Germans.
    Better a terrible end than horror without an end. Constant shelling, loss of life, trembling from every loud knock, etc. And the most terrible, continuous hopelessness and hopelessness, especially for children.
  20. Keeper
    Keeper 2 March 2016 10: 28
    +6
    The author apparently did not fight!
    When shells burst and bullets whistle nearby - there is no desire to "negotiate with the enemy"!
    Kiev initially did not need people in these areas - it needed clean land, for sale or transfer, as you wish, to the same "Chevron" and Co. ...
    So - no one was going to negotiate with anyone from Donbas initially!
    Everyone who is not satisfied with the "Minsk agreements" is a priori either stupid Ukrainians or enemies of the Ukrainians, because these agreements gave at least some hope for the preservation of the integrity of Ukraine!

    Frozen conflict - how's that ?!
    Stupidly not to allow these territories to develop ?!
    Do not pay social money ?!
    Let it be as it is?! But what is it ?!

    There are a bunch of cocked people who have seen the deaths of loved ones ...
    There is a territory that lives according to the laws of wartime ...
    And being in a "suspended position" for a long time is not an option!
    That is why Kiev is delaying the promotion of the "Minsk agreements" - this is much more profitable than solving the conflict, thanks to which they are still in power - pushing all the troubles into the war with Russia!
    1. Stanislas
      Stanislas 2 March 2016 11: 13
      +1
      Quote: Keeper
      And being in a "suspended position" for a long time is not an option!
      Do you think that people who are in this "suspended position" are just waiting for the escalation of hostilities on their front to begin?
      1. Keeper
        Keeper 2 March 2016 11: 37
        0
        There is such a thing as "Starvation" ...
        In the current situation: neither YES nor NO, and regular shelling is underway ....
        These are not hot fights, and you cannot call a bad world either!
        Which exit?!
        MINSK AGREEMENTS! - their full and quick implementation! And then - continued - new agreements! But after the Minsk!
  21. mr.grin19z
    mr.grin19z 2 March 2016 10: 58
    +1
    alternative Minsk 2 to wet banderlog hard without any negotiations, and if not, then all this will continue indefinitely
  22. koshmarik
    koshmarik 2 March 2016 11: 07
    +2
    Most likely there will be no more war in the Donbass - there are no special prospects, but they will put people, there is no money for the war in Ukraine, and a great many problems will appear, including political ones. It is quite possible that peacekeeper Yanukovych will appear on the horizon. Two problems are looming now. 1. All parties to the conflict are seeking a decent way out of this situation. 2. An optimal definition of the status of Little Russia that is acceptable to everyone (negotiations are underway to merge the DPR and LPR). In a word, time will tell.
    1. Ros 56
      Ros 56 2 March 2016 14: 00
      0
      Quote: koshmarik
      In a word, time will tell.


      In my opinion here is different. Everything would be the way you draw, if not for one BUT. These are the states. If there was just a conflict between LDNR and the rest of Ukraine, this is one thing, but Ukraine itself does not make any decisions, it is run by an offal with an egg, it is driven by Biden on behalf of the United States. And he forces these idiots to do what is beneficial to the states, and he does not give a damn about Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians, they will survive or die, he will be hit on the drum, as elsewhere, including in the Middle East and in Europe.
      1. Ros 56
        Ros 56 2 March 2016 17: 29
        0
        Well, who's the minus here, without a king in his head?
  23. black
    black 2 March 2016 11: 31
    0
    Blah blah blah. What did your father say? We need all of Ukraine. Minsk-2 is impossible to do, but Piglet is required to do it. Fulfill - their own, the radicals will beat. Do not fulfill - "friends * will tear off the tail. Let him jump like a louse on a comb. I like to ask Svidomo what they will do when Poroshenko signs the amnesty law."
  24. Evgeny RS
    Evgeny RS 2 March 2016 12: 12
    0
    Minsk is a database minimization. This cannot go on forever. The issue will sooner or later be resolved by force. And Ukraine does not shine.
  25. vladimirw
    vladimirw 2 March 2016 12: 45
    0
    Do not forget that the human reserves for the war in ruin are many times greater than in Georgia, the economy is more powerful. And a comparison
    with Ossetia is not very right
  26. Hecate
    Hecate 2 March 2016 18: 29
    +1
    I am against freezing the conflict and here's why. 1) Russia spends money on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and what in return ?! In these unrecognized republics, the political regime is not very loyal to Russia, and the opposition is such that at least start Maidan according to the Bandera scenario. All this may end with the fact that Russia will spend on all these: South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Donbass a lot of money from the Russian budget, taking it away from the far from wealthy population of Russia itself, and then Russia will have to leave these regions. I now think that the issue should be raised bluntly, either South Ossetia and Abkhazia are part of the Russian Federation, or the Russian Federation should not spend its money on these republics, enough to play charity at the expense of the Russian population! 2) The author speaks of a big war, which Russia avoided by signing the Minsk-2. Who exactly, according to the author, would fight the Russian Federation ?! If the author is afraid of a war with Kiev, then Kiev can start this war at any time, because of the Crimea, but I think that Kiev will start a war with the Russian Federation, Poroshenko will not sit in Kiev for a long time ... eating his ties, like Saakashvili, this is at least ... If the author is afraid of NATO, then NATO will always find a pretext for war with anyone and whenever it wants, but I don’t think that there are many frostbitten in the US to fight with the Russian Federation because of the Bandera herd. For the United States, Bandera's infantry, the same as Saakashvili, can set it on Russia, but Washington will not fight for Kiev.
  27. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 3 March 2016 07: 42
    0
    The main author himself is from the Donbass. I think he knows better on the spot.