While the whole world is following the focus of world war in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya), the formation of another “front” - the Asia-Pacific, is proceeding at an accelerated pace. Beijing is building up its military grouping in the South China Sea, turning it into a “Chinese lake”; The United States, in response, provokes further militarization of the Middle Kingdom, sending its planes and ships to the disputed region; several meetings are canceled at the highest level between Beijing and Washington; Japan, Australia and India are moving towards the creation of a coalition directed against China, with all countries increasing their sea, air and expeditionary capabilities; DPRK's nuclear missile program adds fuel to the fire, leads to the militarization of South Korea, the possibility of the emergence of a US missile defense system in this country, which irritates China and worsens the military strategic position of the Russian Federation. Japan is demanding a solution to the “problem of the Kuril Islands” from Russia, is rapidly increasing its military capabilities, including offensive ones. At the same time, Japan has a conflict of interest with the DPRK and the PRC.
China without noise and dust continues to turn the South China Sea into the “Chinese lake”. The Chinese do not only create artificial islands in the disputed territory with the help of sand from the bottom of the sea, but also place them in the disputed territories of armaments. First came the information about the deployment of the anti-aircraft missile system: two batteries with 8 anti-aircraft installations HQ-9, missile attack radius up to 200 km. The Taiwan Defense Ministry said that the missiles were located on Woody Island, which has been under Chinese control for more than 40 years, but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam.
This information was later confirmed in Washington, and then in Beijing. “As for the limited and necessary self-defense efforts that China builds on islands and reefs where people are located, this fully corresponds to the right to self-defense, which China has in accordance with international law, so there shouldn't be any questions here,” сообщил Chinese Foreign Minister Wan I. At the same time, in China they denied the information about the appearance on the “islands and reefs” of the islands of new types of weapons, saying that weapon It has been there for several years, and the message itself has been called “duck”.
However, this did not please the neighbors of China. The most important maritime communications pass through the South China Sea and its transformation into a “Chinese lake” is very disturbing to the neighboring countries, as well as to the states that depend on the supply of resources through this sea or the transport of goods. For a number of states, these territories are a matter of national honor. In addition to China, which claims to be the majority of the South China Sea with the archipelagos of the Paracel Islands and the Spratly, there are also Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and Taiwan. Australia, Japan and the United States also express a great interest in the situation. The commander of the US Navy Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, stated that the United States does not intend to put up with the militarization of the South China Sea. “Over time, we intend to conduct more complex operations on the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea,” the admiral said. “We have no intention of stopping.” US Secretary of State John Kerry also spoke in favor of ending the militarization in the South China Sea.
After the scandal with rockets, a new stimulus appeared. A few days ago appeared newsthat the Chinese have placed several fighters on one of the Paracel islands in the South China Sea. This press reported the two US officials. Intelligence received information about the appearance on the island of Woody fighter Shenyang J-11 (licensed copy of the Soviet Su-27) and fighter-bomber Xian JH-7. In addition, Western media reported that China, apparently, is building on several islands of the Spratly archipelago infrastructure for radars that will allow it to control the entire South China Sea. New radar will allow to monitor the ships and aircraft.
Thus, weapons are placed on artificial islands, which brings the conflict to a new level. If earlier, Beijing categorically denied that it was building islands for military needs, insisting that all work was being done to facilitate navigation, observe the weather and carry out rescue operations, now the situation has changed radically. Indeed, lighthouses were built on new islands. However, Chinese officials prefer not to recall that, in addition to lighthouses, runways are also built on them, and the bay is quite able to accommodate warships.
In the Celestial Empire, they do not hide that they consider the entire South China Sea to be theirs, the area of which is 3,5 million square meters. km And the Washington Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) did the forecast is that if events develop in the same vein as now, the sea will turn to 2030, in fact, in the “Chinese lake”.
China’s activities in the South China Sea intensified sharply when Xi Jinping came to power at the end of 2012. Over the past year and a half, the New York Times reported, citing sources at the Pentagon, the Chinese have increased the area of atolls artificially by more than 12 km². The buildup of uninhabited islets, and then the active construction on them (including military facilities) caused sharp protests from neighbors and greatly aggravated relations with the United States. The States maintain tensions in the region, defiantly sending patrols of warships and airplanes to the disputed areas, as well as stepping up military cooperation with the Philippines and even Vietnam, consigning old insults to oblivion.
Beijing, on the other hand, responds to all protests in Washington as standard: the islands will be used for civilian purposes, and in any case, China has the right to do what it wants on the artificial islands in the South China Sea, because its rights to them are not negotiable. "The islands in the South China Sea since ancient times are the territory of China, and China has the right to independently defend its sovereignty," said Foreign Minister Wang Yi at a press conference in the United States. In fact, Americans are being offered not to stick their nose at it. In addition, the Chinese see the Americans' desire to establish "absolute sea hegemony" under the guise of talk about freedom of navigation.
In the United States, a few years ago, the strategic doctrine changed, with the result that the main sphere of American interest is now not the Atlantic, but the Pacific Ocean. It is worth remembering that the States have several strategic "defense belts" and strongholds in the Pacific at once. Firstly, it is the actual American bases and islands, including Hawaii and Guam.
Secondly, it is Australia and New Zealand (together with the USA they are members of the military bloc of ANZUS). In recent years, the United States has stepped up military cooperation with Australia. In turn, Australia is significantly increasing its military airborne, airborne and maritime capabilities. In addition, Australia is on the path of increasing political and military ties with Japan and India, who also fear the growth of the power of the Middle Kingdom in the Asia-Pacific region. So, in 2015, the first tripartite consultations were held in India. And in February 2016 of the year - the second. Diplomats of Japan, India and Australia expressed their concerned about the situation in the South China Sea and spoke in favor of the speedy adoption in the UN Security Council of a resolution with new tightened sanctions against North Korea after the new nuclear test conducted there this year and the launch of a high-powered missile in violation of existing international prohibitions.
Thirdly, the USA has a whole chain of allies on the borders of China - these are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines. At the same time, Washington is trying to attract Vietnam and India to the anti-Chinese camp, which have long-standing disputes with China.
Thus, we observe two main trends. China continues its expansion in the region, solving the tasks of its development, strengthening its strategic and economic positions and consolidating the nation (which is especially important in the context of the imminent socio-economic crisis). And the United States is knocking together an anti-Chinese coalition, among which stands out China’s traditional adversary, Japan, which is already almost openly building full-fledged armed forces that have the full range of offensive weapons. The neighbors of the Middle Kingdom are frightened by the “Chinese threat” and are driven into an alliance directed against China. So the US gets an "infantry", which can be set off from the Celestial Empire, staying somewhat away from the conflict, and getting the opportunity to leave the future conflict as the owner of the Pacific Ocean.
Korean "powder keg"
North Korea’s nuclear missile program adds fuel to the fire. In January and February 2016, North Korea conducted a nuclear weapon test and a launch vehicle with a satellite (in fact, this is a ballistic missile). In response, the United States and South Korea initiated military exercises. The Americans sent a strategic bomber, a nuclear submarine to South Korea, and conducted a demonstration flight of F-22 Raptor fighters. US President Barack Obama signed a law to toughen sanctions against North Korea. The United States and South Korea plan to hold large-scale Key Resolve and Foal Eagle exercises in March and April. Up to 15 thousand US troops will take part in them, as well as up to 290 thousand South Korean military. In addition, the United States plans to deploy a missile defense system (THAAD) in South Korea.
In response, Pyongyang promised to continue the satellite launch program and continue to develop its nuclear forces, despite the new sanctions imposed by the United States. In addition, Pyongyang has declared its readiness to deliver preemptive strikes on South Korea and the United States in the event that Seoul and Washington conduct a "operation to eliminate the leadership" of the DPRK during the upcoming military exercises in the region in March.
China is ambiguous about the situation on the Korean Peninsula. On the one hand, Beijing does not support Pyongyang in creating its own arsenal of nuclear weapons, which damages China’s strategic security. During a visit to the United States by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China, Kerry and Wang Yi declared the non-recognition by the United States and China of the DPRK's right to possess nuclear weapons. Wang Yi said that the adoption of a UN resolution on this issue would help effectively contain the DPRK nuclear program. “We do not accept the DPRK’s nuclear program and do not view the DPRK as a nuclear weapon state,” the Chinese minister said. In addition, Beijing does not want an aggravation on the Korean Peninsula, at its side.
On the other hand, Beijing is dissatisfied with the militarization of South Korea and the increasing US military presence on the peninsula. The Chinese are also against excessive pressure on North Korea, offering to “return to dialogue and negotiations.” Beijing strongly opposes the emergence of elements of the American missile defense system in South Korea. It is obvious that strengthening the American military presence in South Korea does not lead to peace, but provokes the DPRK to respond, which creates the potential for war on the peninsula, and causes damage to the military-strategic security of China and the Russian Federation. Therefore, Beijing and Moscow expressed their concern about these plans, stating that they do not contribute to the normalization of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.
Thus, in the Asia-Pacific region, two pain points are activated at once, which in the future may cause a military conflict and the opening of a new “front” of the Fourth World War. The problem of the disputed territories of the South China Sea and the two Korean states (divided Korean people) concerns a rather wide range of countries, regional and great powers.
In addition, do not forget the question of the Kuril Islands, which Japan regularly raises. Taking into account the constant growth of Japan’s military potential and its internal problems, which they often try to hide with “small victorious wars”, as well as the “cold war” between Russia and the West, Russia's participation in conflicts in Ukraine and Syria, Tokyo may be tempted to hold fast recovery operations historical justice. " This is also evidenced by the increased political and diplomatic pressure of Tokyo on Moscow. The failure of diplomacy may make Japan want to solve the problem by military means, as in 1904. The attention of Russia is connected with the Cold War with the West, the war in Syria, the conflict with Ukraine and Turkey. Therefore, the aggravation of the situation in the Asia-Pacific region can seriously complicate the situation in Russia, which is also in the interests of the United States and the West as a whole.
Only one way out: to strengthen the armed forces, not forgetting the eastern strategic direction, and really begin the process of industrialization-2. Without a self-sufficient national economy they will crush us.