Is escalation of violence in Donbas inevitable?

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For the fourth day in a row, the words about the mythical “truce” cause only uncontrolled sarcastic laughter among residents of the Donetsk People's Republic. Because the fighting flare up with unprecedented intensity over the past six months. In general, the situation is reminiscent of the horrors of February 2015, but there are a number of key differences that may turn out to be fateful.

Is escalation of violence in Donbas inevitable?


The enemy tightly attacks the positions of the militia in several directions at once. The most tense situation is on the western outskirts of Donetsk, where the village of Staromikhailovka, located on the very line of demarcation, near the occupied by Kiev security forces of Krasnogorovka and Marinka, falls daily under fire. The situation in Staromikhailovka is close to catastrophic, as the punitive shells fall in close proximity to residential buildings; residential buildings are crumbling daily, and only by a miracle is it possible to avoid human sacrifice.

The situation is equally tense in the southern direction, where parts of the APU once again occupied the village of Shyrokyne located in the buffer zone and should remain demilitarized, as soon as we carefully read the Minsk agreements ignored by the enemy.

In a similar way, the Ukrainian Armed Forces occupied a holiday village in the vicinity of Avdiivka. It should be noted that this territory has always remained neutral, and the militia positions were not there. However, while narrating about the seizure of the village, the punishers added a story about fighting with the mythical “seventh regiment from Kabardino-Balkaria” to heighten the main narrative thread. Before that, the guys want to somehow tell about the “Russian aggression” that they are even ready to pronounce the name of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, which is difficult for their level of development, just not to admit to the inglorious gangster seizure of the neutral zone.

However, laughter is laughter, and such maneuvers of the enemy troops clearly indicate the desire to move to full-scale offensive actions soon. And the constant shelling is aimed primarily at finding the weakest and most vulnerable areas in the defense of the Donbass defense army.

Well, now about the key difference between this escalation of the conflict and the one last year that was announced at the beginning of the article. I don’t know whether the professional skills of the Ukrainian army have increased over the year, whether certain changes have taken place in the moral and ethical sense, or whether this is just a coincidence, but the fact remains: the enemy has ceased to systematically and deliberately bombard social objects. And precisely in this lies the secret of its possible success. At first glance, this is an absurd and paradoxical conclusion. But now I will try to justify it.

It so happened that the current aggravation of the situation at the fronts was felt by far from all the citizens of the Republic. Residents of front-line settlements and areas live in constant fear, this is understandable. Artillery duels, coupled with the unrelenting fire of small weapons became a familiar cacophony for residents of the long-suffering Gorlovka, Petrovsky, Kievsky, part of Kirovsky and Kuibyshevsky districts of Donetsk. Not to mention the villages adjacent to Donetsk. But frank crimes against humanity, massacres, such as those that took place in January-February last year, are not observed now.

Punishers have bothered to stop shooting at crowds of people. Now there is no fire on the lines waiting for the release of humanitarian aid. Now neither intercity regular buses, nor trolley buses are under fire. Now, whole blocks of large cities under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not subjected to heavy fire from the Gradov in order to blame the militia. Nowadays, there are practically no targeted artillery hits in residential buildings. In any case, if you believe the official reports of Edward Basurin.

And therefore, many people tend to mistakenly believe that the truce is being observed, drawing in his head illusory pictures of the peaceful sky above his head. Indeed, the center of Donetsk has already forgotten what life is under shelling, and how important it is not to lose vigilance for a moment. Now the enemy’s fire has concentrated mainly on the outskirts, and it’s mostly not civilians who suffer from shelling, but the Donbas army soldiers themselves, who are forced to endure shelling silently, since in most cases the command prohibits opening fire. And if so, then many Donetsk residents can look at this situation through their fingers, they say, well, think about it, shoot at the military, so they and the military knew what they were going for.

Such a strange escalation is happening now. Everyone understands that the aggravation seems to have happened, and it seems to be very close, but everyone deep down hopes that this will not affect him, and continues to live a normal life.

But last February everything was different. Then no one doubted the need to continue fighting to close the Debaltsevsky boiler to push the enemy from the line to win. And the army of the DPR and the LPR had no choice but to conduct a joint operation in Debaltseve and put the Ukrainian army in the position of zugzwang, from which only the Minsk-2 saved it. And now the leadership does not say anything about the possibility of a large-scale counter-offensive, and the word “Novorossiya” is becoming less and less like in the reports of the official media and in the lexicon of government officials.
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  1. +7
    26 February 2016 06: 25
    The impression is that the APU frankly run into a retaliatory strike in order to raise a big howl and re-launch on a new one. But I can’t imagine how to resist this tactic. If the monitoring mission did its job, then something could have been invented.
    1. +14
      26 February 2016 09: 25
      Yes, just to resist - to hit back hard, aptly and painfully! That there would be an exact answer for every shot and then the desire to fight would come to naught when you know that for every shot an imminent punishment awaits ..... There are any such opportunities, apt answer, this is an open question.
      1. +3
        26 February 2016 19: 03
        Quote: Trigger-Happy
        That there would be an exact answer for every shot and then the desire to fight will come to naught when you know that for every shot an imminent punishment awaits ..... Here are any such possibilities,

        For each shot (directly at the firing position) of a nomadic mortar or gun, it is very difficult to give an "exact response".
        For example, the mortar crew releases 120-8 minutes from the 10-mm mortar in the trench per minute (in the direction of the DPR settlement) and disappeared into cover, and the mortar was covered with a camouflage shield.
        For this minute, ground reconnaissance or UAVs must detect the coordinates, transfer them to a 152-mm howitzer, which is completely ready for firing, the calculation should prepare the data for firing and make a tip (they will probably be in time only in automatic mode, not all self-propelled guns have it) and shoot Adjustable ammunition. After 10-15 seconds. a reconnaissance or UAV should begin laser illumination. The real probability of defeat is far from 100 percent. After all, they can deliver interference, and bring down a UAV, etc.
        Therefore, another principle is used for retaliation during shelling. The fighters of such a brigade, battalion fired?
        A powerful blow is inflicted on reconnoitered goals, headquarters, rear, positions. L / s and the command (and the OSCE too) can even be warned, they say, shot? Wait for an answer ... Accuracy is also needed here, since banderlogs can nestle closer to the housing of civilians. But the time to prepare the strike is longer and our side chooses the time, not dill.
        And if ordered to shoot the headquarters of the so-called ATO? Well, kerivniki should feel in their own skin what it is like when a guided missile, a shell, a CAB, etc. flies into a window. etc.
        1. 0
          26 February 2016 20: 33
          Maybe you should experiment with drone drone?
    2. +19
      26 February 2016 10: 02
      Quote: alex-cn
      . If the monitoring mission did its job,

      This commission is urgently needed by the optometrist. They will only see it when they fly to their head.
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. +2
      26 February 2016 12: 58
      The head giraffe from the OSCE monitoring mission at one of the briefings stated that it was their responsibility to watch where it fell, and not where it came from. That's it.
    5. +1
      26 February 2016 14: 00
      The impression is that the APU frankly run into a retaliatory strike in order to raise a big howl and re-launch on a new one. But I can’t imagine how to resist this tactic. If the monitoring mission did its job, then something could have been invented.
      Answer so that there was no one to howl, but it is necessary to negotiate with Russia.
  2. +27
    26 February 2016 06: 27
    Now the enemy’s fire has concentrated mainly on the outskirts, and mostly civilians, but directly the soldiers of the Donbass army, suffer from shelling
    A year was given to the skakons for reorganization and rearmament, and now we are waiting for a peaceful sky? The problem to say the least fool And the LDNR soldiers are like their fate. The name Novorossia is quietly lowered into the toilet.
    1. +3
      26 February 2016 11: 47
      Quote: VNP1958PVN
      The name Novorossia is quietly lowered into the toilet.


      IMHO, this happened (if it happened) only because of the unwillingness of the authorities of the LPR and the DPR to unite into a single whole called Novorossia. Apparently there is something to share and cling to. Yes
    2. +2
      26 February 2016 11: 55
      Quote: VNP1958PVN
      A year was given to the skakons for reorganization and rearmament, and now we are waiting for a peaceful sky?

      Not only them, but also the LDNR. Structural changes are evident - there are no more "wild" units and now they are the army, not the militia. With weapons, I think the picture has improved too.
      I do not believe that the republics have been holding all this time, without any help, on sheer enthusiasm alone.
  3. +4
    26 February 2016 06: 33
    The ukrokhunta and their masters ... one way out of the war ... It is not for nothing that the ministers from Nemetschyn and France came .. even now ..
    1. avt
      +4
      26 February 2016 10: 47
      Quote: parusnik
      The ukrokhunta and their masters ... one way out of the war ... It is not for nothing that the ministers from Nemetschyn and France came .. even now ..

      Yes . They don’t give the hike money, even those promised in 2015. Again, VVP filed documents in court and did not negotiate with the bankers insuring the debt - to transfer it from the state to the commercial one, and this is AUTOMATICALLY A SOVEREIGN DEFAULT. So to all those who moan about the fact that "the money will not return" - see HOW they use loans as an instrument of political pressure. What is called a classic of the genre and by the way - the velikoukry interest was paid off in December on the debt, although the public was wandering around. laughing Now Poros has faced the objective reality in full growth - there is no money and don’t give, but you need blood from the nose of 40 yards and then only to freeze the situation. So it will be blackmailed by the war and if they don’t give money in the next two months, three, then it’s real only war request she's like, will write off everything
      Quote: sanya.vorodis
      Again half measures? At least to Transnistria!

      Quote: svelto
      No, only to Transcarpathia. One country from Uzhgorod to the Bering Strait!

      what No. With outright banderlog living together and the prospect of struggling to repay debts for them ??? Nope! Some kind of "hetmanshchinu" .... more precisely, "ragulshchinu" - the successor of Ukraine should be left in the form of a reservation of Svidomo raguli with the name on the cell - "gosudarstvo"
  4. +2
    26 February 2016 06: 49
    If the Kiev authorities decide on the next military adventure, then Minsk-3 can not be seen. Until a corridor to the Crimea is provided.
    1. +9
      26 February 2016 10: 23
      Quote: Pvi1206
      If the Kiev authorities decide on the next military adventure, then Minsk-3 can not be seen. Until a corridor to the Crimea is provided.

      In February-April 2014 it was said that even if Kiev only tries to open fire on civilians in the Southeast, the Russian army will come and quickly defeat the then not-at-war Ukrainian army. Discussions were held at the VO in the comments on where the troops of the Russian Federation would go - to the Dnieper, to Kiev or to Lviv.
      And how did the "ATO" begin immediately began to write that Putin should not send troops to Donbass and all that.
      1. Hon
        +6
        26 February 2016 10: 41
        Quote: 0255
        In February-April 2014 it was said that even if Kiev only tries to open fire on civilians in the Southeast, the Russian army will come and quickly defeat the then not-at-war Ukrainian army. Discussions were held at the VO in the comments on where the troops of the Russian Federation would go - to the Dnieper, to Kiev or to Lviv.
        And how did the "ATO" begin immediately began to write that Putin should not send troops to Donbass and all that.

        I noticed for a long time that in our news, we stopped talking about the Donbass. Either they don’t speak at all, or they will remind you briefly. Cleverly switched to Syria
        1. +5
          26 February 2016 11: 54
          Our television is the same tool for manipulating consciousness as in the whole world, they will show you exactly as much as you need or do not show at all, look better than clowns, we have a lot of them, there is no shortage of this, any different
        2. 0
          27 February 2016 03: 12
          Yes, and about Afghanistan is silent. Where are the Taliban already?
    2. +1
      26 February 2016 11: 26
      is that what you decided ?? say Minsk 1 and 2 is also your work ?? belay
  5. +2
    26 February 2016 06: 56
    The authorities of the Ruins have an instinct of self-preservation at the level of lemmings: an installation for self-destruction has arrived, which means it must be done. And the fact that the remains of the state will collapse does not bother anyone. But on the other hand - everything is correct, the agony of used / something has dragged on, it is necessary to bring it to its logical end. All the same, no one will remove the sanctions from us, and at least there will be something to use them for. laughing .
  6. +9
    26 February 2016 06: 58
    An article by a person who sees everything from the inside. But that’s why I didn’t understand what the question was. What does not know why the Armed Forces of Ukraine took Shirokino7 Not the Ukrainians are to blame for this, namely the DPR army. More precisely, the struggle for power.
    Without an escalation of the conflict, Ukraine will not be able to enter the top news. and if so, then they won’t give money. After all, it was not from the stupidity of the Babskiy vice speaker that she announced plans for the military capture of Donbass. Not because of stupidity, Avakov’s adviser on television talks about the Croatian version.
    It just became difficult to hide the advantages of living in LDNR. So, today or tomorrow Poroshenko will announce the next thousand Russian soldiers arriving in the Donbass.
    1. +1
      26 February 2016 10: 12
      no matter how much you crap
    2. +3
      26 February 2016 10: 31
      Quote: domokl
      It just became difficult to hide the advantages of living in LDNR.
      What are the benefits? here, recently, an article was about outrageous mess with dog handlers.
      1. +3
        26 February 2016 16: 32
        If only with dog handlers. But these facts more than cover the tariff for a communal flat and the fare for a minibus and a bus for a simple layman. the thing is that most people don’t give a damn about who is in power. the main thing is to have a well-paid job, a house, a family, not to shoot. Alas, people are not all warriors. Such units. the rest are just people.
  7. +3
    26 February 2016 07: 41
    Kiev has one way out: to support the war in any way. if there will be at least some kind of political settlement. then krivoseki arrange Maidan is no longer in Kiev. but in the whole ruin with all the consequences.
    1. +6
      26 February 2016 08: 13
      Quote: engineer
      Kiev one way out: to support the war in any way

      Well, it’s not for nothing that the early release of officers from military schools was announced, and the mobilization is underway, although they do not officially report about it, so as not to scatter. True, they said "with pride" that as many as 7 thousand signed up for contract soldiers. Yeah, they signed up forcibly, like "either signing a contract, or on trial." Here and to the fortuneteller do not go, they are going to hit.
  8. +3
    26 February 2016 08: 21
    Quote: domokl
    It just became difficult to hide the advantages of living in LDNR. So, today or tomorrow Poroshenko will announce the next thousand Russian soldiers arriving in the Donbass.

    And what are the advantages?
  9. +11
    26 February 2016 08: 29
    And it does not occur to anyone that this time they are well prepared. Indeed, if you think about it, then the attacks along the border (leading to the southern cauldron) to Ilovaisk and the Debaltsev wedge were sensible operations to encircle and dismember the republics, but failed due to the extremely poor quality of the Armed Forces and the poor organization of irregular battalions, coupled with an uncertain local command. The time elapsed from Debaltsev of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was engaged precisely in organization and training, and only a blind person does not see this. And what did LDNR do besides shooting commanders and sharing property.
    1. +2
      26 February 2016 11: 49
      Yeah, smart operations on the environment, the arrows were beautifully drawn, but they didn’t take into account this or that. Well, this is a trifle, isn’t it? As they say it was smooth on paper but forgot about the ravines
      1. +6
        26 February 2016 12: 27
        The operations were calculated sensibly and correctly, by the way, by Soviet standards. And about the fact that you did not take into account, you are certainly right. It is even surprising how the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turned out to be unaware of the state of the troops, and the NBU did not calculate the factor of the mass appearance of volunteers from Russia. Even more surprising is how without the initiative were the mid-level commanders. The question is whether the APU learned from those defeats. If I understand correctly, there will be no more breakthrough tactics. There will be a fire strike by the defenders, and then squeezing and seizing territories around settlements due to numerical and technical superiority. Plus DRG infiltration and road blocking. Most likely in the summer.
        1. +2
          26 February 2016 13: 13
          Let me disagree about the interpretation, the sensibly calculated operation includes everything, including toilet paper, and this operation is stupid, in my opinion, a lot of unaccounted for that led to the defeat. Yes, the swing was probably beautiful, but the face is broken hi

          Regarding whether they made mistakes, perhaps they did, but there is a counteraction for every action. As soon as we see it, the winds may start, north))
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. +3
      26 February 2016 12: 38
      Have you been to LDNR ??? In the republics, two army corps on a fully professional basis, equipped with all the necessary military equipment, were created from scratch by professionals with a capital letter.
  10. +6
    26 February 2016 08: 40
    straining accuracy and selectivity of shelling. which talks about drug training. And this is not a drunk who spanks discs anyhow. namely the pros. and it will be much harder to fight with them. and apparently - have to fight.
  11. +3
    26 February 2016 08: 44
    You can’t cut a pig in parts, it’s not humane. Success in Syria and contacts with the Americans, hopes for easing sanctions, will be crossed out by the next round of military conflict in the Donbass. The topic of Ukraine must be resolved completely.
  12. +7
    26 February 2016 09: 17
    I have some bad premonitions. Everyone was waiting for the destruction of the Ruins, but it still holds. But in Donbess, all some sort of internal showdown and confusion.
    1. +1
      26 February 2016 14: 14
      Quote: Edvagan
      I have some bad premonitions. Everyone was waiting for the destruction of the Ruins, but it still holds. But in the Donbass, all some sort of internal showdown and confusion.

      Yes, you look at something going on in our house! at the top of the government and so on .. What kind of people and how they solve the problem of the crisis, the economy, education and much more .. These are links of one chain and they can not be separated! As long as the liberoid m.ra.zi are in power, there can be no question of any development! They didn’t succeed in stopping everything at random, well, and changed their tactics quietly stifling the country in all directions .. neatly so little by little .. but the process is going on! Only the blind can ignore this! And there are no steps to prevent this! There is a feeling that the "partners" have burned out with the oil industry, and they begin to seek signs of this darkness for their goals!
  13. +3
    26 February 2016 09: 34
    I have a feeling that there is a subtle info game. A lot of truth and a bit of something incomprehensible to speculation. And to develop a theme in one direction or another, it is already a matter of a couple of days. As a result, the collapse in the heads. Friends - BE Vigilant. Infu scoop only from trusted sources.
    1. 0
      26 February 2016 17: 52
      What sources can be trusted? not sarcasm!
  14. +6
    26 February 2016 10: 05
    Volunteers are real - they just promise mountains of gold - advertising hangs everywhere, and many have nothing to eat. For kopeck piece Khrushchev komunalka - 1400 hryvnia. The minimum pension is also 1400. The average salary is 2500. Atoms promise from 6000.
    1. 0
      26 February 2016 10: 32
      Strange enough about the average salary. If you look at the sites of work, then even, God forgive me, in Lviv less than 4000 is difficult to find.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  15. +1
    26 February 2016 10: 34
    By the way, the actions of Minsk-2 have ended and no formal obligations are holding back the leadership of Ukraine from continuing the ATO.
  16. +1
    26 February 2016 11: 06
    In Syria, the conflict will freeze, in the Donbass will open and so on in a circle.
    1. +3
      26 February 2016 11: 26
      Quote: Krona
      In Syria, the conflict will freeze, in the Donbass will open and so on in a circle.


      And in Syria, nothing will "freeze", the Americans just see the ISIS is losing, so they decided to take a break for them, as it was already in Donbass when the Merkel and Oland galloped, the junta got into the boiler, it was necessary to help out. Now the fascists will go on the offensive in Donbass, and in Syria, ISIS will become more active, and even Russia will be accused of breaking the truce. amerikosy profitable that there were two conflicts at once.
    2. 0
      26 February 2016 13: 15
      In Syria, it is impossible to freeze, the IBLIS is more expansive than the junta and the commanders there are former Iraqi officers, and not one and a half crayfish, are immediately reorganized for a counteroffensive. It is necessary to crush the Middle East, then it will be something to squeeze the eggs of the West.
  17. +5
    26 February 2016 11: 32
    On neutral APU it is easier to detect than in the fortified area
    and they won’t be allowed to dig in.
    The BCH also advanced in Avdeevka, but they don’t write about it.
    If the APU goes on the offensive, the VSN is only at hand.
    There will be an occasion to launch a counterattack. All this imaginary truce is sickened
  18. +3
    26 February 2016 11: 47
    You won’t win a truce. I’m not tired of listening to the gay people and amers, and so on. our ... to them we are a bone in the throat. And while in our tops there will be both patriots and the fifth column we will pull in different directions.
  19. +1
    26 February 2016 12: 26
    BCH will not be able to repel the APU as it was a year ago, volunteers from Russia returned home, and in the DPR and LPR itself there is a redistribution of spheres of influence and the struggle for power.
  20. +1
    26 February 2016 13: 09
    "Now no intercity buses are fired upon" only this night I watched the shelling from the AGS (presumably) the checkpoint in Yasinovataya (the registrar showed the date at 7 am on February 24, 2016), which shows how the bus and the passenger car (especially) miraculously did not receive a direct hit
  21. 0
    26 February 2016 13: 11
    As for the escalation, I think it’s not a desire to unleash a new full-scale war, but the need to make some noise, to shoot a dozen videos about "dead heroes" to distract ukrostad from the crisis of the ruling coalition. As farmers in the Rada agree, the shelling will stop.
    Here is what really excites and worries:
    the word "Novorossia" flashes less and less both in official media reports and in the vocabulary of statesmen

    And this is against the background of the dominance of the authorities of the Republics, do not understand where creeped out bureaucrats and politicians - "practitioners" (read opportunists).
  22. +2
    26 February 2016 16: 19
    So soon it will become warm. Look at the APU as a matter of fact. I agree with those who say that the Ukrainian army did not lose time, they now have instructors and NATO logistics ... But the BCH decomposed, squeezing all sorts of nishtyaks from each other.
    I suppose that in the near future a truce will be broken in Syria (guess who will be blamed for this), and then it will blaze in the Donbass. Weekly difference .. Not more.
  23. +2
    26 February 2016 17: 37
    Stopudovo Bandera will climb into Donbass. They wind themselves up so that they can only be discharged in boilers. The fact that "slaveholders" will receive "land plots" 1,5x2 meters is beyond doubt. But they will climb! Banderia is a necrophilous cult with all the attributes, starting with the funeral hymn. Military luck to the Warriors of Novorossiya! For 2 years they have proved their vitality and Valor! There is not a single battle where dill does not melt. The trend, however! Keep it up!
  24. 0
    26 February 2016 19: 44
    But last February everything was different. Then no one doubted the need to continue fighting to close the Debaltsevsky boiler to push the enemy from the line to win. And the army of the DPR and the LPR had no choice but to conduct a joint operation in Debaltseve and put the Ukrainian army in the position of zugzwang, from which only the Minsk-2 saved it. And now the leadership does not say anything about the possibility of a large-scale counter-offensive, and the word “Novorossiya” is becoming less and less like in the reports of the official media and in the lexicon of government officials.
    Whose move is it now? The turn to move the piece on the board, whose?
  25. 3vs
    +1
    26 February 2016 20: 16
    If something happens, Donetsk and Luhansk will have their own Stalingrad ...
    And our leaders will no longer be able to sit out, they will have to choose ...
  26. +1
    26 February 2016 23: 05
    Quote: Edvagan
    I have some bad premonitions. Everyone was waiting for the destruction of the Ruins, but it still holds. But in Donbess, all some sort of internal showdown and confusion.

    I don’t know who and for what understands there, but when Dremov died (I’m already silent about Mozgovoy), then the last desire disappeared to contact these LDNRs. Although at first everything was the other way around. There are also characters about "do not hope for free" joke about us, that is and I want to say the same as the Natsiks say "nakuy you pinned here?" or "would sooner kill you (LDNR) and peace would come," all the same, then such as Vasilyeva will come to power and from the nationality there will be a current name.

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