Military Review

And not a friend, and not an enemy, and so ...

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Through the words of one well-known retiree, former diplomat Jim Jatras, Washington pointed out to Erdogan his insufficient intellectual level and made it clear that NATO would not cover the Turkish army, which itself climbs into the hellish inferno where the pans and pots heat up the Russians. “You guys are now on their own, and if you are so stupid that you send your forces to Syria and substitute them for a Russian blow, do not expect NATO to come to the rescue,” Mr. Jatras explained to Erdogan. And a miracle happened: the Turkish sultan remembered that he was Russia ... a friend.


And not a friend, and not an enemy, and so ...


According to former US diplomat Jim (James) Jatras (Jim Jatras), the threats from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia intending to intervene in the Syrian conflict, were one of the reasons why the United States and Russia recently agreed on a truce.

Jim Jatras explained to R. T. Erdogan something popularly. "You guys are now on their own, and if you are so stupid that you send your forces to Syria and substitute them for a Russian blow, do not expect NATO to come to the rescue," the retiree quotes. Utro.ru.

In Washington, and at the same time in Brussels, they are afraid that the "Neosultan" Turkish "flew off the coils" will not pawn the Allies with a pig, like a pig. Alexander Konovalov, President of the Institute of Strategic Assessments, Professor of the Department of World Political Processes of MGIMO, spoke on this subject.

“Turkey unexpectedly turned out to be an important ally for NATO on the flank, which was never considered a priority in the alliance, since the bloc was created with a completely different strategic direction in mind. Sensing its importance, Erdogan could not resist the temptations, firstly, to gain value in the eyes of the allies; secondly, to use the Syrian conflict as an instrument of their cherished dream - to recreate some kind of Ottoman empire, ”said the expert Reedus.

But NATO has never had the task of pulling Turkish chestnuts out of the fire. In addition, R.T. Erdogan’s “holy war” with the Kurds compromises the Allies in the eyes of a significant part of the population of those countries in the region where the Kurds live. “The Allies are not particularly enthusiastic about the situation when they have to activate Article 5 of the Charter because of Erdogan’s adventures,” believes Konovalov.

The picture is also complicated by the upcoming election campaign in Turkey: after all, Erdogan wants to promote himself in the role of the new Ataturk and wants to turn the state into a super presidential republic.

Having received such a sensitive kick from the West, “neosultan” decided to make a statement. Actually, there were two main statements.

First, he criticized the “dishonest” truce in Syria - the one that Russia and the United States agreed to and which Assad supported.

On the air of Turkish television, Recep Erdogan said that the agreement reached was “unfair” because it does not take into account the interests of Ankara. According to Erdogan, who leads Utro.ruThe main point in the conclusion of this truce is to promote the interests of Western countries, Russia and Iran. As a result, the gains from the cease-fire will remain ... Bashar Asad. “The West, the United States, Russia, Iran, the European Union and the United Nations, unfortunately, no longer stand on the protection of human values,” Erdogan concluded.

The main reason for the “injustice” in Erdogan’s understanding was, of course, the direct message from the retired diplomat, whose mouth says Washington. Hinting that the North Atlantic alliance in the event of war on the Turkish-Syrian border with Russia's participation will not get involved in the conflict seriously grieved the poor fellow “Sultan”, who was accustomed to hearing the breath of Western allies behind his back.

Secondly, Erdogan appealed to Russia.

The site «Anadolu» R.T. Erdogan’s commentary on the situation in Syria and relations between Turkey and Russia was published in pure Russian.

“We are not enemies of Russia and the Russian people. In the period when others introduced sanctions against Russia, we did not do that, ”the Turkish president recalled at the 21 meeting with the heads of local administrations in the presidential complex in Ankara.

The head of the Turkish state is sure that Russia did not understand Turkey. And lost a friend: “Russia lost a friend like Turkey. When it comes to our independence, we will not bow to anyone's whims. "

Allah is on the side of Turkey: “We bury the pits of those who dug them. With the permission and blessings of Allah, we will win. " Erdogan stressed that Turkey is facing the onslaught of terror, and called for abandoning attempts to play the Kurdish card: “The Kurds of my country are my citizens, my brothers. We have no problems with our Kurdish brothers, our problems are connected with terrorists. For that matter, terrorists can be Kurdish citizens, as well as representatives of other ethnic components. We know this very well. ” According to Erdogan, the international community should “finally recognize that the PYD and its military wing of the YPG are offshoots of the PKK terrorist organization, and stressed that the PYD and YPG should remain outside the peace process in Syria, as the IG and the Front an- Nusra.

The chief editor of the “Problems of National Strategy” magazine of RISI Azhdar Kurtov believes that it is too early to draw far-reaching conclusions regarding the Syrian settlement. “The cease-fire agreement between the government forces of Bashar Assad, the Russian Aerospace Forces, the US-led coalition and the Syrian“ moderate opposition ”has not even entered into force. It only allows us to hope (!) That this agreement, if it is successfully implemented, will create conditions for translating the conflict into a plane of political settlement, ”said the expert. "Free Press".

In his opinion, the ceasefire is difficult to implement in practice due to the lack of a single front line. In addition, the Assad army, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the United States, will continue to destroy Islamic radicals.

And it cannot be said that the Turkish factor is completely neutralized: “If Erdogan continues to fire at the Kurds or, all the more, he decides to open ground intervention, I do not exclude that the agreement reached will have to be revised. Given the fact that the Turks did not sign it. And all sorts of diplomatic equipment and hints, as they say, "blows the wind."

“In the end, the US State Department could have called the Turkish ambassador to make a public statement. There are many ways in international politics to make it clear that they will not tolerate such behavior. When Americans see fit, they act very hard. If they didn’t do that, they don’t really want to, ”the expert believes. - Relations between the US and Turkey are more like a game to the public. Erdogan understands this, so he can afford unpleasant remarks against the American leadership. That is, they scold him, but they are clearly not ready for more decisive measures. So let's not hurry with the evaluation of the agreement: it can still change. ”

There is a slightly different opinion. Stanislav Tarasov, editor-in-chief of the eastern version of the news agency Regnum, highly appreciated the possibility of implementing the agreements reached.

“It is very important,” he said to “SP”, “that the United States and Russia managed to come to an agreement at the moment when Turkey behaved very provocatively, shelling the Syrian territory. Ankara sought to finally split the anti-terrorist tandem Moscow-Washington. Did not work out. The US authorities insist that the Turks cease to engage in provocations and join the truce. And the Turkish leadership was forced to confirm its participation in the peace process. ”

In general, let us add from ourselves, one can say that “neosultan” suffered a kind of diplomatic defeat in the international arena. A wound from a diplomat, even a retired one, coupled with the apparent reluctance of Washington and NATO to cover the Turkish ass on the battlefield, says a lot. Justification of Erdogan, who tried to reduce the whole problem to the “terrorists” of Kurdish nationality, sounded very unconvincing, because everyone knows that Erdogan is a consistent opponent of Assad, and everyone remembers how he called him a “butcher” and a “murderer”. Or is Assad already enrolled in the Kurds? The statement of the “Sultan” on “friendship” with Moscow also eloquently testifies to the loss of Ankara in the international arena.

The next failure of Erdogan may be the election campaign. Recall, the president recently made a proposal to move the state from parliamentary to presidential form of government. His (Erdogan) powers in this case will become truly limitless. The arguments of the president seem to many analysts and observers to be extremely inconclusive. For example, the “Sultan” believes that it is not good when the president has to reckon with the parliament and the prime minister. It looks like a "dual power". Therefore, Erdogan wants to rewrite the constitution and give himself almost absolute authority. As for the parliamentary system, its president declared "old-fashioned."

Will the Turks support the “new Ataturk”, which has spoiled relations with Moscow, risking ruining relations with the US and NATO and driving the country into a full-scale political crisis?

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
30 comments
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  1. parusnik
    parusnik 26 February 2016 06: 39
    +9
    Recep Erdogan said that the agreement was “dishonest” because it does not take into account the interests of Ankara.... left without an oil nipple ..
    1. KirAntiglobov
      KirAntiglobov 26 February 2016 08: 44
      +3
      Of course, the dishonest agreement, the interests of ISIS, it also does not take into account .. Shooting down our pilots - that was honest ..
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. siberalt
      siberalt 26 February 2016 10: 26
      +1
      Erdogan, USA put on the honorable place of political loser laughing He became uncontrollable, and therefore dangerous and unpredictable. So to lower the president in the eyes of his army had to really try.
      1. Alexey-74
        Alexey-74 26 February 2016 11: 30
        +2
        The USA itself set up Turkey (or rather Erdogan) ... the loser Erdogan simply did not understand that it was a setup, shot down our plane, and one had to disentangle one
        1. square
          square 26 February 2016 14: 13
          0
          They just used Erdogan, and then they throw it away like a condom. He was needed only to raise the degree in Syria and force the Russian Federation and Assad to negotiate a ceasefire. It painfully briskly began to win.
      2. hobot
        hobot 26 February 2016 17: 23
        0
        And why did you get the idea that he is not controlled? There are many different political and commercial structures in the USA that are not controlled by the president, but quite the opposite.
  2. bad
    bad 26 February 2016 06: 44
    +2
    perdogan-woodpecker .. dumb with it ..
  3. mad
    mad 26 February 2016 06: 45
    +8
    Erdogan is rushing about like in a frying pan, the "main" partner first gave the go-ahead for any action, and now he took it ... and still builds surprised eyes, like - Erdogan, what are you doing?
    Life does not teach anything to people which century has fallen on the same Anglo-Saxon hook.
    1. cap
      cap 26 February 2016 08: 19
      0
      Quote: mad
      Erdogan is rushing about like in a frying pan, the "main" partner first gave the go-ahead for any action, and now he took it ... and still builds surprised eyes, like - Erdogan, what are you doing?
      Life does not teach anything to people which century has fallen on the same Anglo-Saxon hook.


      It’s more correct to say that Erdogan wasn’t hooked, but put into the very place from where the legs grow, without the possibility of getting out.
    2. the villain
      the villain 26 February 2016 10: 00
      +1
      Quote: mad
      Life does not teach anything to people which century has fallen on the same Anglo-Saxon hook.

      Everything is like in that old joke about the shepherds: "The gate, dear, we have old ones, we just have new rams." hi
  4. alex-cn
    alex-cn 26 February 2016 06: 47
    +5
    In general, the provision on collective defense does not seem to stipulate a situation in which one of the NATO countries itself starts a war with a neighbor. automatic intervention of the unit in this case is not provided ... I think it will not be.
  5. Vladimirets
    Vladimirets 26 February 2016 06: 47
    +4
    “Unfortunately, the West, the USA, Russia, Iran, the European Union and the UN do not stand up for the protection of human values,” summed up Erdogan.

    Isn't the moon-faced one going to defend "human values"? what
  6. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 26 February 2016 06: 50
    +5
    "The Kurds of my country are my brothers, and I bomb them like brothers, and crush them like happy brothers with tanks" ??? Erdogan's grave humor ...
  7. Hooks
    Hooks 26 February 2016 06: 54
    +1
    "The US officials insist that the Turks stop engaging in provocations and join the ceasefire."
    Yeah, who, as if not striped, is invading Erdogan. They are like a drum who will be the following: Sakashvili, Valtsman, Erdogan - if only Russia would be bad.
  8. Belousov
    Belousov 26 February 2016 07: 55
    +2
    I would not pay much attention to Fashington’s public statements. Examples of their duplicity are much more than examples of honest implementation of agreements.
    1. the villain
      the villain 26 February 2016 10: 11
      +2
      Quote: Belousov
      Examples of their duplicity are much more than examples of honest implementation of agreements.

      It’s in their nature, their filthy stuff, remember: "if a gentleman can't win by the rules, he just changes the rules" And if you really have to play with such "GYNTELMEN", then it is absolutely necessary to have a good weighty candelabrum at hand, just in case hi
  9. Xent
    Xent 26 February 2016 08: 11
    +5
    I just could not restrain myself and did not show footage from Diarbekir (the old name is Tigranakert). Armenian Church before and after ... That's the face of Turkey ...
  10. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 26 February 2016 08: 51
    +4
    This is to be expected.
    Anglo-Saxons never rush to the aid of their allies. There follows a long period of reflection.
    For example, in the 39th, the Anglo-French slowly lined the border with Germany, when the Germans fought with Poland. Poland, by the way, in its impudence and adventurism in foreign policy is very reminiscent of the current Turk.
    Only in the 44th the Allies were able to land in Europe. And this despite the huge economic superiority over the Teutons.
    1. andrewkor
      andrewkor 27 February 2016 06: 37
      0
      I'm sorry, we landed in northern France in 1944 and in 1943. landed in Sicily and further into Italy (this is Europe, isn't it), than they brought it out of the war. It happened at the height of the Battle of Kursk and Hitler gave the order to curtail Operation Citadel. Of course, from Normandy to Germany, it is closer than from Italy and our defenses at Kursk ground down the German force, but the dates must be accurate. Respectfully, someone else's flag was hanged to me !!
      1. 11 black
        11 black 27 February 2016 10: 56
        0
        Quote: andrewkor
        It happened in the midst of the Battle of Kursk and Hitler gave the order to curtail Operation Citadel.

        There is no causal relationship here, it was our counterstrike that "turned it down" - Hitler could of course have given such an order, but it would not have changed anything, with or without allies - our defense would have ground the Germans in one way or another. In Italy, as a result of the landing of the Allies, the Germans lost 3500 soldiers, near Kursk about 500000 ...
  11. iouris
    iouris 26 February 2016 10: 55
    +1
    The destruction of the Turkish state is part of the Washington project in the Middle East. An alternative project is the preservation of Assad.
    1. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 26 February 2016 12: 27
      +3
      Quote: iouris
      The destruction of the Turkish state is part of the Washington project in the Middle East. An alternative project is the preservation of Assad.

      I don't think Washington is interested in destroying the Turkish state. No matter how, but a NATO country, which allows mattresses to be present in the region, practically without "inventing" reasons.
      But to tear off a piece of territory with Kurds is perhaps of interest to mattresses, which will give them the opportunity to put pressure on both Turkey and Syria - it is not for nothing that they ranked Kurds as allies, contrary to Erdogan's cries.
  12. Denis Skiff
    Denis Skiff 26 February 2016 11: 25
    +1
    Quote: KirAntiglobov
    Of course, the dishonest agreement, the interests of ISIS, it also does not take into account .. Shooting down our pilots - that was honest ..

    Ergagan is sick. money is driving people crazy. like gold. why would the Arab countries never grow into one big state (the saucy moneylenders of the caliphate conceived the impudent savers)? they have such a fate, rob caravans and save gold. but few have gone mad with the accumulation of gold. How crazy can big things be organized? the maximum that Turkey achieved (if only all Arabs get together to divide North America and Canada). and the one that is not up to the empire will disappear very soon.
  13. Nova
    Nova 26 February 2016 11: 55
    +1
    The whole point of Erdogan in the picture, 10 out of 10! I rarely saw so perfectly and simply selected components that together complete the image. Not in the eyebrow, but in the eye! And there is no faith in this two-faced, he is not a friend to us.
  14. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 26 February 2016 12: 04
    +4
    One can argue with Putin, but not insult him. The military aircraft shot down by the Turks was perceived by the GDP as a personal insult. And he never forgives anyone (even his former associates). Erdogan still does not seem to understand this.
  15. Konstantin Yu
    Konstantin Yu 26 February 2016 14: 17
    +1
    I am sure that Putin is a sovereign, and it is a shame when in the back ... and not to him personally. RUSSIA needs to know its enemies ... "partners" in the face and keep them in plain sight, and not recklessly substitute ... what are all these friendships history has taught more than once ... The stronger Russia, the more "partners" ... ...
  16. napalm
    napalm 26 February 2016 14: 30
    0
    Erdogan wants to inject, but his mother doesn’t tell him. In short, eat a fish and not sit somewhere. I can’t calculate what Putin’s reaction will be. But there is no hope for NATO. And time is running out. Plans are crumbling "neosultanstvo" moves away or the throne will fall and crush ...
  17. DimerVladimer
    DimerVladimer 26 February 2016 15: 09
    +1
    Somehow the link to Utro.ru - the yellow press, does not add reliability to the source ...
  18. Margadon
    Margadon 26 February 2016 20: 24
    0
    the Turkish "neosultan" will put the Allies not a pig, so a pig


    A hint of Turkish-Ukrainian ties?
  19. pinhead
    pinhead 27 February 2016 05: 47
    0
    and not friend, and not enemy, but ...
  20. Koshak
    Koshak 27 February 2016 05: 57
    0
    As the saying goes, there is no need for enemies with such friends!
  21. The comment was deleted.