Military Review

Transpacific partnership: from economic union to military?

On Tuesday, February 23, PRC Minister of Commerce Gao Hucheng said that China does not consider the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement aimed against him. The words of the official actually need to be interpreted exactly the opposite: Beijing understands how threatening the situation is, and is preparing to counteract. Chinese analysts have already calculated the possible consequences of creating a new supermarket in the Asia-Pacific region, and not only economic, but also political: both those that come at once and in the future. As for Russian officials, they don’t even try to hide their anxiety. What are they afraid of in Moscow and Beijing?

So, the signing of the agreement on the Trans-Pacific Partnership 4 February 2016 (otherwise Trans-Pacific; the exact form of entry in the Russian language is not settled), without a doubt, has become one of the most important events not only of the month, but of the whole year. Of course, the ratification of the treaty in national parliaments is still ahead, but it is unlikely that problems will arise. The single trade union will unite the markets of Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Singapore, USA, Vietnam and New Zealand. Already from a simple listing it is clear that the supermarket is mainly created by either very rich countries, or those who have significant potential and at the same time pursue a US-friendly policy. South Korea, the Philippines and Colombia are next in line - countries that are both economically and politically closely connected with the United States of America. With Taiwan it is more difficult, but under certain circumstances they can invite him. It is already clear that the decisive role in the union will be played by the United States of America, who will act as the administrator and moderator of the entire project.

However, economic logic traditionally goes alongside geopolitical, and the latter requires the elimination of any alternative projects in the region. Including the military way. Hence the need for the military cooperation of the TTP members. The past Pacific military alliance, SEATO, was initially quite loose and collapsed as soon as its complete inability to protect its members became clear. The new alliance, if it is created, will be much more durable, since it initially has common, unambiguous tasks.

Implicit, but indicative preparations in this direction have long been underway. So, in Japan, on two remote islands of Io (Iwo Jima) and Minamitorishima (more than 1800 km east of the Japanese capital) there are large military airfields and a number of other objects of unknown purpose. Access of civilians to the islands is prohibited, on satellite maps the image of these islands is specially made blurry, and in the Google service. Planet Earth ”the island of Minamitorishima is not shown at all. Not long ago, Tokyo regained the right to collective defense outside its own country. Official statements are already preparing the world community for such a return. In mid-February, the Japanese ambassador to the EU suggested that his country would assume a “much bigger” role in the near future to maintain global security than before.

Australia, New Zealand and Chile - other TTP members also have their remote island possessions. In this case, the Australians have just completed the two largest ships in stories his fleet - Both landing helicopter carriers, and the Chilean military in 2011 acquired a large landing ship-dock class Foudre, and two years earlier - a decommissioned tanker in the ocean zone. Now the Navy of these countries have become able to conduct military expeditions far from their shores.

Thus, the hypothetical Pacific Alliance will have supporting bases and squadrons tightly locking all entrances and exits, and capable of preventing any unauthorized activity, almost along the entire perimeter of the ocean. In particular, the RIMPAC annual naval exercises are arranged for this purpose.

Potential targets of the newly created military bloc, most likely, will be the three largest APR countries that do not fit into the overall configuration. This is Russia, China and Indonesia. In essence, the war against them is already underway, albeit not in explicit forms, which can now be called "hybrid."

So, the disintegration of Indonesia actually began in the 2002 year after the secession of East Timor. In 2006, another province, Aceh, with the tacit consent of the central government introduced Sharia law and in fact Jakarta also does not control this territory. Its separatist movements exist in the South Moluccan Islands, West Papua, etc. For final registration in independent states, these movements need only the collapse of the Indonesian government and limited outside help. Worse, local Islamists are increasingly beginning to raise the banner of the terrorist organization ISIS. Understanding their difficult situation, Jakarta, on the one hand, strengthens the navy and at the same time tries to join the TTP itself, in any case, such an intention was announced on October 27 of the year 2015.

Another obvious target of the alliance is the People’s Republic of China. By itself, China is already a huge megaproject, in addition, the Celestial Empire is implementing several integration projects at once: “One country - two systems”, “New Silk Road” and direct military expansion into the South China Sea. All this creates insurmountable contradictions between the American and Chinese regional order systems, which can only be solved according to the principle “there will be only one at the end.”

It is difficult to say about plans for the Far East of our country, but most likely, the TTP members also have them. Euromaidan has virtually destroyed any prospects for integration processes between Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and the protracted economic crisis threatens the stability of the Russian Federation itself. Although the TTP trade agreement and the hypothetical military alliance in the Asia-Pacific region are not directly related to each other, the general direction is already visible.

Can Russia prevent the formation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership? To interfere - no, can not. But she can easily slow down the integration processes of the global pro-American project if she has enough skill and willpower. So, in the spring of the Russian city of Sochi, Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe is to visit. He does this despite the wishes of the American administration, which is a lot in itself. Japan is the second most important TTP country after the United States, and much will depend on its position.
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  1. bad
    bad 26 February 2016 06: 50
    it’s not necessary to look too far into the future now ... as if in the near future it wouldn’t have exploded ..
    1. Sensatus
      Sensatus 26 February 2016 09: 08
      I really hope that the Amers stupidly do not have enough time to drive the next sheep into their stall until the next acute phase of the crisis. And after it, the world will be a little different.
      1. 222222
        222222 26 February 2016 11: 30
        1, Russia and the WTO .. ​​threat to American dictatorship
        On August 22, 2012, Russia officially entered the World Trade Organization.
        Negotiations on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization have been ongoing for 18 years, from 1993 to 2011.
        2. Transatlantic partnership ... ".Columb" 21 centuries !!
        The idea was started in 1990. Soon after the end of the Cold War, when the world was no longer divided into two blocs, the European Community (12 countries) and the United States signed the "Transatlantic Declaration." She called for the continued existence of the North Atlantic Treaty, as well as for annual summits, meetings between ministers, and more frequent meetings between politicians and senior officials.
        Subsequent initiatives by European leaders and the US government included: in 1995, the creation by government authorities on both sides of the Atlantic of an initiative group of business representatives "Transatlantic Business Dialogue (English) Russian." (TABD); 1998, establishment of the Transatlantic Economic Partnership Advisory Committee; in 2007 the creation of the "Transatlantic Economic Council", in which representatives of the leading firms operating on both sides of the Atlantic meet to advise the European Commission and the US government; and finally, in 2011, the creation of a high-level group of experts who, in their opinion of 11 February 2013, recommended the start of negotiations on a large-scale free trade agreement. On February 12, 2013, US President Barack Obama called for such an agreement in his annual State of the Union Address. [13] The next day, the President of the European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, announced that negotiations were coming to reach an agreement.
        3 trans pacific trade partnership
        A proposal to create a TPP was put forward in 2003 by three countries - New Zealand, Singapore and Chile.
        The agreement on the establishment of the TPP stated that its participants created, in accordance with WTO standards, a free trade zone

        In 2008, the United States became interested in this project, and then Australia, Vietnam and Peru. In 2010, Malaysia began negotiations on joining the TPP, and in 2012, Canada and Mexico.
        In April 2012, the United States announced its intention to include Japan in the organization, in March 2013, Japan decided to start negotiations on joining the TPP [3] In May 2013, the start of negotiations on Japan was announced, and an active discussion of prospects for joining TTP
        On October 5, 2015, in Atlanta (USA), an agreement was reached on the Trans-Pacific Partnership between 12 countries: USA, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru

        And again, "Columbus" drove the beads .. but in the 21st century ??
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 26 February 2016 16: 31
          The United States produces about 23 percent of world GDP, and consumes about 40. Moreover, it produces largely intangible products - programs, finances, securities, etc., but receives tangible ones. It receives from two main regions - the EU and Southeast Asia. Accordingly, THESE 2 REGIONS AND TRADE WITH THEM ARE THE BASIS OF US NATIONAL SECURITY. HERE AND TTP AND TRANSATLANTIC PARTNERSHIP AND THE NEED FOR TOTAL EXCELLENCE OF THE US NAVY AND THE NAVES OF THESE COUNTRIES OVER OTHER COUNTRIES. These are the necessary vassals of the USA, which provide it with their products and, in turn, consume its products. It is extremely sad that Vietnam is on this list of colonies and satellites, but he also needs to live on something, but I think that not everything is lost. Finally, Vietnam can be removed from the list of friendly countries when it begins to purchase NATO weapons instead of ours. This will be a symptom. Do not buy weapons from enemies.
          Accordingly, these countries can also be considered as military vassals of the United States. In principle, the absence of China and Indonesia on the list cannot but rejoice. So their USA is not considered allies or vassals, and you can cooperate with them and sell weapons to them as well.
  2. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 26 February 2016 06: 59
    The Chinese, though it was on their minds, have long realized that they alone did not last long - the United States with mongrel will devour China. Therefore, in the Middle Kingdom they say what they are doing to hear from them, and they are doing everything so that the benefit is only to China.
  3. Flinky
    Flinky 26 February 2016 07: 05
    When I saw the name of the author - put a minus without bargaining.
  4. Belousov
    Belousov 26 February 2016 08: 35
    Yes, Japan will not decide anything there. Everything was as usual - they gave the order to the descendants of the samurai and they were proud to the point that the black gentleman called them his beloved wife in the region, and ran to execute him.
    The goal of the TTP is primarily economic, secondarily political, and only thirdly military. For to fight with China, this means the transfer of serious resources, primarily human resources. Of course, satellite forces can do as well, since the Chinese fleet is still weak compared to the American one (Kaptsov’s balm), but only islands can be recaptured and a very patient enemy will be available for many years. It is much easier and safer to crush China economically and politically encircle it.
    1. Kibalchish
      26 February 2016 09: 24
      Japan is the second TTP economy after the United States. For some reason we often forget about this.
      1. Generalissimo
        Generalissimo 26 February 2016 14: 12
        For some reason, we have put the Chinese economy below the Japanese one.
  5. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 26 February 2016 08: 55
    Something of China in Syria is not visible, allies request It seems they are only concerned with solving their problems.
    1. Talgat
      Talgat 26 February 2016 18: 21
      Quote: vladimirvn
      Something of China in Syria is not visible, allies

      Perhaps this is due to the fact that the alignment is now not at all like that. as in the USSR

      US and West in fact hegemons and world rulers

      It is simply unreasonable to openly declare alliances against them

      There are a number of countries that in the future will become the basis of an alternative system - China, Russia with its immediate environment (EAC and CSTO), Iran with Syria, Bolivarian Union of 9 countries, DPRK, possibly Argentina, Algeria Indonesia and others

      But for now, you have to be careful. Russia does not openly recognize a military-political alliance with Iran and China, for example - and does not take an open position against Japan - because in the Far East against Japan and the United States, China alone has to confront in fact. Likewise, China - while supporting Syria, Iran and Russia diplomatically - it does not send troops or aircraft into Syria. The time has not yet come to "drop the glove". As the representative of the Chinese General Staff put it - wait another 15 years and everything will be different
  6. Blackmokona
    Blackmokona 26 February 2016 08: 58
    Well, well, the Japanese are simple, don’t want TTP, give us Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. And then, as from NATO to the east, well, the previous administration made such promises, and now the new government. But Tipo slowed TTP lol
  7. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 26 February 2016 09: 27
    Well, the Americans are creating their Pacific organization, but how many have such structures already.
    Million. Wagon and small trolley.
    But the fact that China, Indonesia and India - this is 80 percent of the global production of goods - you can not argue with that. How it is possible to drive and isolate them somewhere is not clear.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 26 February 2016 10: 00
      Quote: Cap.Morgan
      How it is possible to drive and isolate them somewhere is not clear.

      To remove the production of electronics from China and on the remaining luggage China will not last long in this area, the Chinese are master copiers, and the technology gap will widen
    2. Blackmokona
      Blackmokona 26 February 2016 10: 12
      Firstly, not 80% or even 50%.
      Secondly, the United States is fully friends with India against China (they had a couple of wars in the 20th century for reference)
      Thirdly, most of the production in the PRC is the factories of the United States and its friends, which can blow off the PRC by whistle or stop them without critical components if China tries to interfere.
      1. aba
        aba 27 February 2016 01: 39
        these are factories of the United States and its friends that can blow the whistle from China

        This is understandable, the only question is: Where and how fast? wink
  8. cap
    cap 26 February 2016 09: 48
    "Can Russia hinder the formation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership? No, it will not. But it is quite capable of slowing down the integration processes of the global pro-American project, if it has enough skill and willpower. So, in the spring, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should visit the Russian city of Sochi. He does it against the wishes of the American administration, which in itself is a lot. Japan is the second most important country of the TPP after the United States, and a lot will depend on its position. "

    Arrive islands to bargain. Do not go to the grandmother.
    I really want to eat a fish and sit on a squid.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 26 February 2016 10: 35
      The East recognizes only power. And Russia showed it. Here Japan is no longer up to the islands.
  9. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 26 February 2016 10: 36
    The past Pacific military alliance, SEATO, was initially quite loose and collapsed as soon as it became clear its complete inability to protect its members. The new alliance, if it is created, will be much more durable, since initially it has common unambiguous tasks.
    As for the strength of the new union - this is what my grandmother said in two.
  10. R-22
    R-22 26 February 2016 10: 43
    Will the islands be bargained for? Surely the Japs will try to speculate and will once again ask them for themselves.
  11. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 26 February 2016 11: 23
    I can not agree with the opinion of the author that
    Euromaidan virtually destroyed any prospects for integration processes between Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan

    Most likely, the process will develop according to Lenin’s formula - a step back, two steps forward. Vietnam is also unlikely to forget how the United States burned the country with napalm. At least this country is buying weapons from Russia. So not everything in this world is unique. As always.
    1. Blackmokona
      Blackmokona 26 February 2016 12: 17
      Serbia has forgotten, and is slowly jumping into NATO. In the same way, Vietnam, facing the threat of China, will immediately forget about the Vietnam War, and will pedal friendship with the United States in the face of the Chinese threat.
      In general, Oceania has always fought with Ostasia. Such turns have repeatedly cranked up the countries of the world. winked
      1. Vivan
        Vivan 27 February 2016 01: 57
        Vietnam looks like a black sheep in TTP. The United States understands that there will be no economic benefit from Vietnam’s participation in the CCI. Nevertheless, the USA actively invites Vietnam, counting on the gradual democratization of Vietnamese society (as a prerequisite for participation in the CCI), which will certainly lead to a weakening of the power of the Communists in the country. The leadership of Vietnam, realizing the risk of "friendship" with the United States, nevertheless consciously takes this risk as a countermeasure to the threat posed by China. As for China, it is not a bit afraid of Vietnam’s participation in the TTP, since it holds the Vietnamese leadership firmly in its claws, and Chinese goods with the mark “Made in Vietnam” will pour into the countries of the TTP.
    2. Talgat
      Talgat 26 February 2016 18: 13
      I also did not understand this phrase: "... Euromaidan virtually destroyed any prospects for integration processes between Ukraine, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, ..."

      Everything is clear with Ukraine - yes, I agree - no integration is expected in our country. Kazakhstan is "Asia" and they want "tse Europa"

      But with Belarus and Russia, everything is moving forward with us. With the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the CRRF there is no movement backward - all forward. Everything is OK in the single market - After the Customs Union, all documents on the Eurasian Union were worked out and signed - neither Russia nor Belarus revoked a single signature of a single document - everything is progressing

      As promised by Nursultan Abishevich, the population will simply receive 4 of freedom - the movement of finances, services, goods and people. That is, with internal certificates, we will use the same rights that a resident of Russia or Belarus, for example, to open a business, buy an apartment, etc. Send goods to Karaganda or Voronezh - it doesn’t matter where the consumer is - it’s almost as if we are pushing the borders of Kazakhstan to the Pacific Ocean, Europe and Baltic

      Te interfering artificial boundaries should be abolished

      And the fact that we will not be able to choose in the Union republics - yes, God bless him - politics is personally violet to me - let the dad or GDP choose there and we will choose our own Nurotan

      And also - plus Kyrgyzstan and Armenia are joining - even if the markets are small and the economy and the army. But they probably have an importance in their geographical position - as if "bridgeheads" - that's why they accept it, although there was no compliance with the EAC standards.

      Kyrgyzstan has another plus - it is a people for whom the Kazakhs are very close. I won't be mistaken if I say. that we are the closest people to the Kirghiz in terms of language and culture. They do not belong to the settled "south" - they belong to the "steppe" - although they live in the mountains. God himself ordered them to integrate with us
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 26 February 2016 19: 32
        Quote: Talgat
        Kazakhstan is "Asia" and they want "tse Europa"

        Well, there is such a popular sport, among certain circles - "running with the box office", with the finish in London :-)
  12. fix
    fix 26 February 2016 12: 02
    The trans-pacific, trans-atlantic agreement is not just the control of trade routes by sea. In contrast to the continental Eurasian project.
    It is rather a replacement for the WTO with amers, which won back its own (like a pyramid - as long as new players enter it, the founders have a fat). Indeed, strong economies are growing in the WTO format, and within this framework they are learning to uphold national interests. And if this does not work out - they try to reformat in BRICS with their own rules.
    Information appears that the TPP provides for the limitation of sovereign laws in relation to those adopted in the agreement. And also: "The United States initiated the establishment of a special court within the framework of the TPP to consider disputes between transnational corporations and governments." And where, I wonder, will this court be located? And who, I wonder, will ensure the entry into force of his decisions? So everything is quite real.
    By the way, can you imagine how much more effective would be the current sanctions against us in the framework of these trans-partnerships?
  13. Lazy person
    Lazy person 26 February 2016 13: 15
    China will save the world from the rotten west.
  14. xoma58
    xoma58 26 February 2016 14: 12
    Nothing good can be expected from "our" current government. Everything will only get worse inside the country and in external relations. In fact, we have a government leading to collapse (yes, a little bit is left). True, when the government says that the country has hard times, they lie. In their countries, where their wives, children, grandchildren live, where their real estate and capital are all just fine.
  15. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 26 February 2016 18: 39
    Quote: sa-ag
    Quote: Cap.Morgan
    How it is possible to drive and isolate them somewhere is not clear.

    To remove the production of electronics from China and on the remaining luggage China will not last long in this area, the Chinese are master copiers, and the technology gap will widen

    Now it is hardly possible to collapse something. The Chinese have their own developments, their own scientists (remember how many Chinese students study at Western universities), their own companies ... They also have a lot of money. So the process is irreversible.
    1. The comment was deleted.