Military Review

On the eve of February 27

27
Bashar Assad supported the plan of Russia and the United States on a cease-fire in Syria, subject to the continuation of the fight against the Islamic State and other terrorist groups. In this case, the Syrian authorities reserve the right to respond to any violations of the truce by terrorists.


On the eve of February 27


The United States and Russia have announced the approval of a plan on the conditions and duration of the cessation of hostilities in Syria, 22 reported February "BBC".

“The United States and Russia ... are proposing to end hostilities from 00: 00 hours Damascus 27 February February 2016. The cessation of hostilities should concern those parties to the Syrian conflict who indicated their commitment to the treaty and accepted its terms, ”the United States and Russia joint statement issued by the State Department quoted the television and radio company.

It is clarified that the Islamic State, Front al-Nusra and other organizations recognized by the UN Security Council as terrorist organizations do not fall under this cease-fire agreement.

The comment of the agreement by senior officials from Washington is also known. US Secretary of State John Kerry said: “Today’s agreement is the result of goal-oriented diplomacy in many countries and organizations, and I want to thank everyone who worked on it, including the US and Russian delegations, as well as other members of the International Syria Support Group.”

“If the program is implemented and respected, a cease-fire will not only reduce violence, but also expand the supply of urgently needed humanitarian supplies to besieged areas, and also support a political transition to a change of government that will meet the aspirations of the Syrians,” Kerry said.

In the comments of V. V. Putin, transmitted by the Russian media, the agreements on Syria are called a real step towards stopping the bloodshed. Putin also said that the cease-fire was approved by him and B.H. Obama.

As President Putin clarified in his address, Russia and the United States will jointly determine the areas where military units that have agreed to an armistice act, notes RBC. Putin made a promise that neither the Assad army, nor the US-led international coalition, nor Russia would conduct combat operations against such groups.

To control the cease-fire, the United States and Russia will create a hotline and, if necessary, a working group to exchange information.

The opinion of the opposition is also known. The leader of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NKORS), Khaled Khoja, said in an interview with Al Arabiya Hadath TV that the agreement lasts for two weeks, but can be extended if the parties observe it.

According to Riad Hijab, the head of the High Negotiating Council (a body established in December 2015 for opposition negotiations with the Syrian authorities), the opposition representatives agreed in principle to a temporary truce with international mediation in Riyadh.

Supported by Riyadh, the opposition High Negotiating Committee intends to support the ceasefire agreement in Syria, but under certain conditions, the channel reports "Euronews".

According to the cited document, the opposition "agrees to respond positively to international efforts to achieve a cease-fire" in Syria, subject to the lifting of the siege of Syrian cities, the release of prisoners, the cessation of civilian bombardment and the delivery of humanitarian aid.

The official reaction of the Syrian government to the new agreement became known 23 February.

An official source in the Foreign Ministry said Tuesday, reports SANAthat the Syrian Arab Republic accepts an agreement on the cessation of hostilities in accordance with the agreement between Russia and the United States, subject to the continuation of the military struggle with the “Islamic State in Iraq and Syria” (ISIS), “Dzhebhat al-Nusra” and other terrorist organizations, including related to al-qaida.

The source added that to ensure the success of the cessation agreement on the planned day (Saturday, February 27), the Syrian government confirms its readiness to continue efforts to coordinate with the Russian side to identify areas in which armed groups are located that will be affected by the ceasefire agreement throughout its duration.

The source noted that the Syrian government can change its position in order to counteract everything that could undermine this agreement. The government insists on the right of its armed forces to retaliate in case of any violations related to the actions of some groups against Syrian citizens or the Syrian armed forces.

What do the experts think about the prospects for a truce?

If, despite bad relations, Russia and the United States manage to reach agreement on Syria, it means that “we remain negotiable, then there is a desire on both sides to stop it and understand how dangerous it is,” said Irina Zvyagelskaya from the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Her opinion leads newspaper "Vedomosti".

The chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Fedor Lukyanov, considers the agreement "encouraging." However, the expert does not overestimate its value.

“This is very encouraging - there have been no such signals for a long time, but this does not mean that the nature of the relationship will begin to change as a whole, it will not start, it concerns only specific issues that the parties consider important,” he said.

The meeting of the opposition, we add from ourselves, for a reason was held in Riyadh. There is an opinion of foreign experts about the likely cessation of “sponsorship” by the Saudis factions fighting against Assad.

As said in a conversation with RBC A researcher at the University of California at Berkeley, Peter Bart, if the Assad troops, with the support of Russia, succeeds in taking Aleppo, regional powers, in particular Saudi Arabia, may stop supporting the armed opposition "on the grounds that it will not be able to win."

The armistice agreement will be respected if the parties find a “common point” in Syria, said political analyst from the University of Osmangazi (Turkey) Chenap Chakmak.

"The United States may stop so insistently demanding the displacement of Assad, and Russia - to show greater zeal in the fight against LIH", - said the expert.

But how to separate the "moderate" groups from the terrorist? And it is necessary to do this, as it is not supposed to be conducted against the first combat operations.

Identifying “moderate” factions will be challenging, especially in the province of Idlib, said "Vedomosti" a person close to the Russian Ministry of Defense.

Many groups with “moderate” flags are fighting together with “Dzhebhat an-Nusroy”, and other pro-Turkish groups of the “Syrian Free Army” have declared that they will continue the war not only with the Syrian army, but also with the Kurds.

“Who is this Syrian opposition is generally the biggest secret, because there are 100 units that take different positions, and some also change names,” said Alexei Podberyozkin, director of the Center for Military-Political Studies of MGIMO.

Probably, the truce is a direct path to the parliamentary elections in Syria. On Monday this week, President Bashar Assad issued a decree on holding parliamentary elections 13 April. However, the opposition does not agree with this idea: its representatives have spoken against holding a vote in “turbulent times”.

A spokesman for the High Negotiating Committee, Naasan Aga, said that general elections were irrelevant at such a hectic time, he said "Reedus" with reference to the Al-Arabiya channel. The event may put the lives of civilians at risk.

Currently, the United States and Russia are discussing the preparation of a draft resolution of the UN Security Council in support of the agreements reached on establishing a ceasefire in Syria. This was stated by Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov, reports "Lenta.ru".

In addition, a source at UN headquarters told Tass that Russia and the United States have already prepared two draft resolutions. Based on the existing two texts, it is supposed to work out one document for adoption in the coming days.

Finally, the opinion of American analysts about the political goals pursued by Russia in Syria appeared in a major press.

By agreeing with the United States on a ceasefire regime in Syria, Moscow decided all the tasks set in this direction, and even more. About it writes "The New York Times", reports TASS.

According to analysts, Moscow set itself five tasks in Syria: “stop attempts to change the regime in the country and incitement to this from the outside”, “disrupt Washington’s plans to isolate Moscow”, “prove that Russia is a more reliable ally than the United States”, "Demonstrate new weapons." There was also an additional task: to remove the Russians' concern about the situation in Ukraine.

"To a certain extent, all these five goals have been achieved," - says the American edition.

Thus, the West, one way or another, was forced to recognize Russia's leading role in resolving the Syrian crisis and resolving the military conflict. Now it is difficult to imagine that any important negotiations on Syria go without the participation of Russia. The adoption of documents at the level of the UN Security Council without Russia could not be imagined before.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
Photos used:
http://www.bbc.com
27 comments
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  1. midivan
    midivan 25 February 2016 06: 27 New
    +5
    Bashar al-Assad supported the plan of Russia and the United States on a ceasefire in Syria
    did he have a choice?
    Putin made a promise that neither Assad’s army, nor the US-led international coalition, nor Russia will conduct military operations against such groups
    Having agreed with the United States on a ceasefire in Syria, Moscow solved all the tasks set in this direction, and even more than that. About it writes "The New York Times", reports TASS
    smile respect for GDP soldier
  2. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 25 February 2016 06: 36 New
    +5
    At the same time, the Syrian authorities reserve the right to respond to any ceasefire violations by terrorists.
    And still, for some reason, the State Department and Minsk inflict this strong from it. The video message of the GDP looked uncertainly.
    1. Pereira
      Pereira 25 February 2016 11: 49 New
      +1
      Minsk is the first thing that comes to mind.
      The horses are celebrating with might and main the defeat and defeat of Russia. They expect that the undead bandits will rest, with the help of sponsors they will rearm, receive anti-aircraft missiles, replenish the ranks of new recruits and still capture Syria. And then all together will come to Russia, which has lost international authority.
      For some reason, these plans seem to me quite real.
    2. Homo
      Homo 25 February 2016 12: 28 New
      +1
      Quote: VNP1958PVN
      The video message of the GDP looked uncertainly.

      Yes of course! Mat did not swear, did not promise to break, did not knock on his slipper. So in your opinion the appeal should have looked?
  3. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 25 February 2016 06: 37 New
    +6
    Nonsense is this all-what kind of truce if the Turks promise to continue spreading spread rot on the Kurds, "shouts in asshole that" nusra "should be excluded from terrorist organizations, and that if the nusra continue to screw up, they will help this nusra?
    1. APASUS
      APASUS 25 February 2016 22: 08 New
      +1
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      Nonsense is this all-what kind of truce if the Turks promise to continue spreading spread rot on the Kurds, "shouts in asshole that" nusra "should be excluded from terrorist organizations, and that if the nusra continue to screw up, they will help this nusra?

      That's right!
      The most important thing that was not prescribed when signing this agreement is an element of monitoring compliance with this agreement. Who will monitor the implementation, who monitors the violations ??
      Here is direct evidence of Turkey’s participation in supporting ISIS.
    2. Homo
      Homo 26 February 2016 13: 14 New
      0
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      Nonsense is all a truce if the Turks promise to continue to spread rot on the Kurds,

      A truce is concluded between the warring Syrians.
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      ... and what if the nusra will continue to be figurative, will they help this nusra?

      And reading the agreement is not fate? Those who do not lay down their arms will extinguish (without going beyond the agreement)!
  4. sergeyzzz
    sergeyzzz 25 February 2016 06: 52 New
    -2
    Is Project Syria Closing? What's next? So far it looks like a "draw".
    1. Delink
      Delink 25 February 2016 09: 33 New
      -4
      It just started in September.
      And I think Our darkest will squeeze them !!!
      1. Pereira
        Pereira 25 February 2016 11: 50 New
        +2
        We thought so about the outskirts when the militia went to the approaches of Mariupol. I didn’t.
        1. Homo
          Homo 25 February 2016 12: 37 New
          0
          Quote: Pereira
          We thought so about the outskirts when the militia went to the approaches of Mariupol. I didn’t.

          A couple of days ago there was an article about the "heroes" of the leaders of Novorossiya. Read and understand that there are descendants of great shelters there on both sides (I mean the leadership). Only in Novorosiya, those who in Kiev didn’t see anything in the carve-up, so they decided to snatch in the Donbass. And the people there (in the majority, 60-70 percent) do not care, they will accept the winners. Unlike Crimea, where the people almost 100% supported the return to Russia. That is why they "put the squeeze" in Crimea, but not in New Russia.
    2. Homo
      Homo 25 February 2016 12: 29 New
      0
      Quote: sergeyzzz
      Is Project Syria Closing? What's next? So far it looks like a "draw".

      Do you need a war "to victory ..."? Then why aren't you there? The Syrians need peace!
      1. Pereira
        Pereira 25 February 2016 12: 32 New
        +3
        Syrians need a victory. Otherwise, they will not have peace.
        1. Homo
          Homo 26 February 2016 13: 11 New
          0
          Quote: Pereira
          Syrians need a victory. Otherwise, they will not have peace

          But not at all costs. Where it is possible and with whom it is possible, peace must be made. Nobody is going to make peace with ISIS, but they need to deal with the opposition, they are tired of fighting too. And they are also Syrians! Maybe stupid, deceived, bought, but the Syrians.
  5. aszzz888
    aszzz888 25 February 2016 07: 06 New
    +3
    The Merikatos are next preparing Plan B. At the slightest deviation from the points of negotiations, they again introduce new sanctions. It seems to me that the sanctions will be endless, and on any positive side of the issue of lifting the sanctions, the striped ones will find more than one hundred reasons to extend them.
  6. parusnik
    parusnik 25 February 2016 07: 27 New
    +2
    For ISIS and their allies, there will be no truce .. this is important .. And the opposition is faced with a tough choice, either life or destruction ...
  7. knyazru
    knyazru 25 February 2016 07: 32 New
    +9
    I think everything will be like with the "Minsk", the bearded will shoot (violate), the SAA will shoot back, the Americans will only notice the shooting of Assad's army, they will blame Assad and Russia and impose new sanctions on us ... The theater of the absurd will continue ...
    1. Homo
      Homo 25 February 2016 12: 39 New
      -3
      Quote: knyazru
      I think everything will be like with "Minsk" ...

      Nostradamus you are ours, and what will happen to the ruble, with warming on the planet, with the invasion of aliens - you will not say? wink
  8. sergeyzzz
    sergeyzzz 25 February 2016 07: 33 New
    +3
    Quote: aszzz888
    The Merikatos are next preparing Plan B. At the slightest deviation from the points of negotiations, they again introduce new sanctions. It seems to me that the sanctions will be endless, and on any positive side of the issue of lifting the sanctions, the striped ones will find more than one hundred reasons to extend them.

    Sanctions will not end until we win, they will simply be of different shapes and in different areas, they were before, they just didn’t yell at them on every corner.
  9. WU 37
    WU 37 25 February 2016 08: 45 New
    +2
    Bullshit all this !!! Someone would doubt the ability of amers to create and make tricks! It’s not profitable for America to reconcile. Where what happens America blows the whole world, and it will turn upside down, and Russia broadcasts only to Russia,
  10. Belousov
    Belousov 25 February 2016 08: 48 New
    +4
    The purest water is another Minsk. Also, terrorists will be "moderate" during the day, at night - ordinary, they will fight, if Assad's army responds, screams about violations begin, "they are also bearded children" and so on, with subsequent sanctions. Don't Putin, Lavrov and the others in charge of the negotiations understand this? I'd like to know what guided the adoption of such a defeatist "peace" plan. Or who were they guided by?
    1. Egoza
      Egoza 25 February 2016 09: 47 New
      +1
      Quote: Belousov
      I'd like to know what guided the adoption of such a defeatist "peace" plan. Or who were they guided by?

      And the same as in Minsk. You know who by interests. And here Turkey raised its tail in the arms of Ukraine. And what if you agreed to strike from both sides with the blessing of the United States?
      1. Delink
        Delink 25 February 2016 09: 58 New
        +1
        It is possible to build up weapons and regrouping.
        And then the simultaneous activation of conflicts.
  11. hobot
    hobot 25 February 2016 16: 16 New
    +1
    I think Putin lures them into a trap, churns to a loss of vigilance. And the chance this year is great - there will be elections in the US, Obama will act carefully, a lot will go for his reputation.
    1. shura7782
      shura7782 25 February 2016 21: 27 New
      0
      Quote: hobot
      ..... this year's chance is great - elections in the USA

      I absolutely agree. In this situation, time works for us.
  12. Denis Kochkin
    Denis Kochkin 25 February 2016 22: 25 New
    0
    This is just the beginning!!! They’ll still fight there !!! They’ll not fight !!! Nor when people still in rich places just don’t end the war !!!
  13. sokudo
    sokudo 25 February 2016 23: 26 New
    0
    Legally, Putin again paid everyone. But then the United States will definitely introduce Plan B or some other, it will look like the support of terrorists. But they don’t get used to it. Like giving black to white.
  14. Jozhkin Cat
    Jozhkin Cat 26 February 2016 00: 32 New
    0
    The army is tired, it takes a couple of weeks to rest and prepare for the capture of large cities, all the equipment is almost with a resource of zero, the ammunition is probably running out, we need a supply.