Military Review

The reasons for the collapse of the doctrine of Ahmet Davutoglu "Zero problems with neighbors"

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The reasons for the collapse of the doctrine of Ahmet Davutoglu "Zero problems with neighbors"



The doctrine of “zero problems with neighbors” was adopted in 2008 at that time by the Turkish Foreign Ministry. Ahmet Davutoglu explained the truth of the doctrine by the fact that the importance of any country is determined by its geostrategic position and "historical depth. " From this point of view, Turkey has a lot of benefits, being at the junction of the most important regions + the Ottoman past played a role. As you know, Turkey is the heiress of the Ottomans, who once united the entire Islamic world. The doctrine is only part of the 1990 postulate on the inseparability of the historical basis and political space. “Zero problems with neighbors” implied non-interference in the internal affairs of other states, however, this is not just peaceful interaction with neighboring republics.

The course involves the expansion of the influence of the Turkish state by three trajectories - political, economic, military, with the ultimate goal - to become a Middle Eastern leader and a transit hub in the region. The goal is based on the imperial traditions of Tayip Erdogan’s policy. And at the heart of these traditions is the “Neo-Ottoman” course. Everything is quite simple and fits into a single thesis - the subordination and control of the Middle Eastern processes. However, neither the imperial dreams of Tayyip Erdogan, nor the doctrine itself was destined to come true. As modern Turkey shows, the program not only did not lead to stabilization of relations with its neighbors, but also reached a conflict-causing peak in cooperation with them. "Zero problems" develops into many problems. What are the reasons?

In my opinion, there are three main reasons:

1) Firstly, the position of the neighbors themselves (according to Turkish representatives). In my opinion, the reason is the least likely, but we will not discount it. It has already become a tradition for the Turkish course to first make mistakes, and then blame the “neighbors” for these mistakes. An identical situation occurred with the downed Russian SU-24, when Turkey was justified before NATO. It is important to understand that no international organization can make such decisions. The decision on SU-24 could be made only by the highest echelon of the Turkish authorities, that is, by the President. This is what Deputy Prime Minister Yalcin Akdogan says: “This concept (meaning the doctrine of“ Zero problems with neighbors ”) was conceived by us as an ideal, as Turkey’s message to the world, as the tone of its foreign policy. We can find a lot of good initiatives of Turkey in respect of Iran, Iraq, Syria. But for a number of reasons, not everything turned out as it was intended. Most often this was due to the position of the leadership of these countries: in Iraq - because of the inflexibility of (former Prime Minister Nuri) Maliki, in Syria - because of (President Bashar) Assad, ”said Akdogan.

2) The second reason is dependence on NATO and the United States. This doctrine has never been to the liking of either NATO or the United States. Here I would like to quote the words of Al-Jazeera’s Munir Shafiq: “The United States always requires Ankara to consistently spoil relations with its neighbors. What kind of "zero problems" !? The role of Turkey, which it assigns in the West, is to be an enemy of the enemies of America. Establishing relations with Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Russia, Qatar, and against the background of the winding up of a military alliance with Israel, this, of course, has always caused and causes sharp irritation among NATO allies. Turkey instead of its neighbors is now surrounded by regional opponents. Given this, the leadership of the republic is actively establishing relations with the other two states. First of all with Israel. It seems fantastic, but even in the 50 of the twentieth century, the Jewish communities in Turkey enjoyed exactly the same rights as the Turkish nation.

Moreover, Israel was an important economic partner of Turkey, the Jews in Turkey were one of the most prosperous groups. According to political analyst Stanislav Ivanov, the situation has changed dramatically after the appearance of the Justice and Development Party. The party program provided for the revival of the new Ottoman Empire and the Jewish nation, to put it mildly, did not fit into these goals. Since the beginning of 2016, Turkey has also been developing relations with the Saudis, with whom they are united by complicity in the Islamic Coalition. Let me remind you that in December 2015 of the year Saudi Arabia initiated the creation of an anti-Syrian company, which included the 34 states, I note, the Sunni states. The exceptionally Sunni list of countries is due to the growing Iranian activity in the region. As is known, Iran is another neighbor of Turkey, with whom the “politics of zero problems” has not justified itself. As a result, Iran and Turkey are now regional opponents.

3) The third last reason, in my opinion, is that the doctrine is not able to adapt to the current trends of the Middle East. It must be said that the composition of the doctrine was developed even before the processes of the “Arab spring”. So, they did not take into account neither the series of these conflicts, nor all the consequences of these conflicts. The very fact of the “Arab spring” forced Turkey to take rapid-fire steps, leading not a diplomatically thoughtful, but an emotional policy. Tayyip Recep Erdogan is the president of emotions, a leader who builds his power on feelings. His decision regarding Israel (when the ambassador was recalled), inadequate policy towards Russia, unwillingness to grant Kurds autonomy (when the civil war is growing), antipathies towards Bashar Assad — all this is emotional for the Ottoman leader.

What will help Turkey out of the collapse? In my opinion, it is important for the Turkish authorities to cease to be a puppet state, a conductor of the interests of the West in the Middle East, to pursue an independent policy, to become a worthy heir to the great Ottoman Empire, finally!
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  1. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich 21 February 2016 06: 56
    +9
    What will help Turkey get out of collapse?
    in my opinion, a military coup ... Erdogan has already transplanted half of the generals, the rest have simply pressed their ears, but love for Erdogan has not been added ...
    Tayyip Recep Erdogan is the president of emotions, a leader who builds his power on the senses.
    I really disagree! what the fuck are feelings? direct selfish goals, "toad" - according to our ...
    1. Ami du peuple
      Ami du peuple 21 February 2016 07: 23
      +8
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      I don’t agree! what the fuck? direct selfish goals, "toad" - according to our ...

      Why so? Tayyip Recep Erdogan has a high feeling - love! Love of power and money smile
      1. oleg-gr
        oleg-gr 21 February 2016 08: 13
        +1
        The Turkish Sultan Erdogan and his companions suffered. More power wanted to go down in history as a winner. And it turns out exactly the opposite.
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. Tatyana
          Tatyana 21 February 2016 10: 27
          +3
          Andrey Yuryevich
          From the text of the article
          Tayyip Recep Erdogan is the president of emotions, a leader who builds his power on the senses.
          I really disagree! what the fuck are feelings? direct selfish goals, "toad" - according to our ...

          By the way, TO QUIET ABOUT GREED.
          The state must be secular. But Erdogan and Co. in the domestic politics of Turkey is in the position to recreate the Ottoman Empire, i.e. builds the NUCLEUS of a religious Sunni state in Turkey itself. Erdogan’s regime sends all its oppositionists to its “neo-Ottoman” policies - military and civilians - to jails.
          Erdogan is precisely the representative of the Turkish government of RELIGIOUS Sunni doctrines, which should not be forgotten.
          And what determines the desire for power? (This is the most interesting question.) The desire to organize, distribute and protect property ourselves, both in our country and abroad, is naturally at our discretion in our interests. Religion, as the ideology of the distribution of property, fits perfectly perfectly to this, developing greed in privileges for some and suppression of personality for others.
          And the greed of the person in power plays a very large role.
          For example, the well-known sociologist psychiatrist Erich Fromm, studying German fascism, determined, in particular, that one of the psychological reasons for German fascism was not just the struggle for German colonies after the 1-th MV, but it was precisely the greed among the Germans themselves, which on the part of the Germans themselves Germans were accompanied by genocide of other peoples during the Second World War. Moreover, greed, as such, by the definition of Fromm, is NOT an innate instinct in a person, but acquired through his upbringing. And at the heart of education lies ideology.
          Well, and then what in the Turkish-Erdogan case brings up the Turks? Their religious Sunni ideology, which laid the foundation of their Turkish national policy as the vanguard national advantage and privileges of the Turks in their struggle for supremacy in the region over other peoples and other religions. Etc.
          It is important here not just to remove Erdogan and Co. from power to calm the region. We also need an ideological revolution of secular content in power in Turkey itself.
        3. sovetskyturist
          sovetskyturist 21 February 2016 10: 42
          +1
          Everyone has their own role in this chess game. So the Turkish leaders fell for the bait of globalizers, it’s already clear that now the main role of the Russians in this theater is not to drag the chestnuts to the puppeteers.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. EvgNik
      EvgNik 21 February 2016 08: 28
      +1
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      what the fuck are feelings? direct selfish goals, "toad" - according to our

      Money is money, but sometimes Erdogan acts contrary to logic, guided precisely by emotions.
  2. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 21 February 2016 06: 57
    +9
    For Turkey, it’s better now to do nothing at all! They have zugzwang now! It’s better to let them sit at home and watch a movie about the Ottoman Empire, otherwise they may lose the TV ..
    1. svp67
      svp67 21 February 2016 07: 18
      +2
      Quote: dchegrinec
      For Turkey, it’s better now to do nothing at all!

      Turkey is now in such a position that it can not do anything, any inaction is like death for Erdogan ... He "staked too much" and "played too much"
      1. novobranets
        novobranets 21 February 2016 07: 30
        +2
        Quote: svp67
        He "staked too much" and "played too much"

        He played a lot. The Turks have already invaded Syria. Such a decision is made only by the government, at the highest level. So this is the full responsibility of the edorgashki. NATO refused to support the Grosssturka, moreover, they made it look like it was shelling the Kurds, but the Turk refused to calm down. Now he must either "forward under the tanks" or back "into the trench". But megalomania will not allow common sense to prevail. The cockroaches in his head were already repeating to him, "calm down", but the awl in the ass answered, "nifiga-ah". wassat
    2. vic58
      vic58 21 February 2016 08: 23
      +1
      No! If you watched the film "Guardians of the Galaxy", there was a tree hero "I'm cool!" I remember Vysotsky and the song about reincarnation: "But if you are stupid as a tree, you will be born a baobab, and you will be a baobab for a thousand years until you die!" The Turks outdid him !!!
  3. venaya
    venaya 21 February 2016 06: 58
    +1
    The goal is based on the imperial traditions of Tayyip Erdogan’s politics. And at the heart of these traditions is the "neo-Ottoman" course.

    Erdogan himself is in the grip of neo-imperial misconceptions, without impressive and real help from abroad, and his undertakings, in principle, are not able to make their way and have a future.
    1. Masya masya
      Masya masya 21 February 2016 07: 25
      +3
      "Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that the Turkish authorities expect protection from allies, primarily from the United States, in case the country is under threat, and they do not want to hear" but "and" if "from them." - vz
      So ... They would start to twitch, not counting on support ...
  4. yuriy55
    yuriy55 21 February 2016 07: 00
    +1
    The doctrine of “zero problems with neighbors” was adopted in 2008 at that time by the Turkish Foreign Ministry. Ahmet Davutoglu explained the truth of the doctrine by the fact that the value of any country is determined its geostrategic position and “historical depth”.


    The second reason - dependence on NATO and the USA.


    This is the main problem of all zeros. After all, whatever one may say, zero without a wand, it is an empty space. Only a unit that has acquired a zero is only for the time being considered a ten, until the zero is "blown away".

    So they live (for now!) In their tandem the USA (NATO) and Turkey ... laughing
  5. svp67
    svp67 21 February 2016 07: 04
    +5
    The reasons for the collapse of the doctrine of Ahmet Davutoglu "Zero problems with neighbors"
    What a crash? They just go to the "zero neighbors - zero problems" option. We just need to prepare and be ready.
  6. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 21 February 2016 07: 17
    +2
    Everything is quite simple and fits into a single thesis - submission and control of Middle Eastern processes. However, neither Tayyip Erdogan's imperial dreams, nor the doctrine itself was destined to come true.
    ... but it turned out as always. You have the desire, but you do not have the opportunity. And in politics, oh, how to think and calculate the situation! When Erdogan has a "hammer" in his hands, everyone around him turns into "nails".
  7. askort154
    askort154 21 February 2016 07: 20
    0
    Erdogan is like an elephant in a china shop. The sly fox Davutoglu laid out the program for the restoration of Osmania, through a "zero problem policy" with neighbors, and the performer did the opposite. It is surprising that the politician Merkel blindly supports Erdogan. She hopes through him to solve the problem of refugees, not realizing that this is her second rake campaign, which will end in failure.
  8. Hooks
    Hooks 21 February 2016 07: 21
    +1
    The reason is amphibiotropic asphyxia (toad presses). Mercantile Kyu! (with)
    1. Zeppelin ml.
      Zeppelin ml. 21 February 2016 10: 20
      0
      Quote: Hooks
      amphibiotropic asphyxia

      excellent medical bathrachological term !! A plus!
    2. Weyland
      Weyland 21 February 2016 16: 35
      0
      Quote: Hooks
      amphibiotropic


      not amphibiotroпnoah and frinotroфNoah!
      trail is a "turn", but as for amphibians - it's not a frog or a newt crushing it - more specifically!
    3. The comment was deleted.
  9. avg-mgn
    avg-mgn 21 February 2016 07: 28
    +2
    If Turkey set a goal to unite the entire Islamic world, it should become the leader of this world itself. However, she is a puppet of the USA, and these foxes are still those - they do not need either a strong Islamic world or a strong Europe, especially Russia. There is no worthy place for Turkey in this chess game.
  10. Foresterer
    Foresterer 21 February 2016 07: 58
    +2
    A note about nothing. The reasons are much greater and they are much deeper. The main and main thing is the desire of Erdogan and the team he assembled to finally transform Turkey from a secular into an Islamic state and revive itself great and become the greatest. Not even so, but Great, with a capital letter. Only the scale of the personality is not the same and therefore its steps and actions.
  11. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 21 February 2016 08: 02
    +1
    "What will help Turkey get out of the collapse? In my opinion, it is important for the Turkish authorities to stop being a puppet state, a conductor of Western interests in the Middle East, to pursue an independent policy, and finally to become a worthy heir to the great Ottoman Empire!"

    Sorry, could not help it, it was very funny.
    1. Nothing will come of the collapse of Turkey. Will the Kurds give autonomy and peace in Turkey? No, the process will go further and even to the unification of the Kurds under the patronage of the United States. There will be no state, there will be territory. A loss of 1/3 of Turkey is already inevitable at least.
    2. Stop being a puppet state? With the same wishes, you can contact any country. Everyone is connected with everyone and no one can conduct an independent policy. We have to take into account the opinions of others. Even the USA faced problems, then Iran, then Venezuela, then China, I am silent about us ...
    3. "to become a worthy heir to the great Ottoman empire" - this is how everyone understands to the extent of their depravity. The Turks understand that the inheritance is not enough and the big uncles robbed them. They are unwilling to understand the time of the classical empires has passed. And they see around them not former vassals, but their subjects, so to speak.
  12. Dam
    Dam 21 February 2016 08: 09
    0
    This country is living out its last days, we will soon see the Kurdish Republic, and there the parade of sovereignty will continue.
  13. demo
    demo 21 February 2016 08: 28
    0
    The doctrines of Ahmet Davutoglu “Zero problems with neighbors” will then begin to be realized when both him and Mr. Erdogan are multiplied by zero.
  14. EvgNik
    EvgNik 21 February 2016 08: 39
    0
    The role of Turkey, which it is assigned in the West, is to be the enemy of America’s enemies

    This role is assigned not only to Turkey, but also to other countries. For example, EU countries, Ukraine, the republics of the Caucasus. The West in the quote here is perceived as the SGA, and not those countries that are west of Russia.
  15. wandlitz
    wandlitz 21 February 2016 08: 47
    0
    The Turkish elite was blown away by anticipation of the restoration of the empire. For this reason, they go to the neighbors with the war. But nothing happens without an answer.
  16. Senior manager
    Senior manager 21 February 2016 09: 25
    0
    For some time, the interests of the exclusive and the Turks coincided, then the interests diverged, the Turks did not calculate this and continue to bend the doctrine of the Ottoman Empire. And the train has already left. Erdogan has become a cardboard politician, he was included in the general herd of vassals, and the toad strangles, and adrenaline splashes, "well, you have to do something" and bang in the ear of the neighbors. By and large, he does everything to NOT achieve any result.
  17. iouris
    iouris 21 February 2016 10: 58
    +1
    Davutoglu is a fascist dialectic.
    On the one hand, there is the New Ottoman Empire and Turan, on the other hand, there are "zero problems with neighbors." This contradiction can be resolved by absorbing some neighbors and destroying the influence of others.
  18. Mjohn
    Mjohn 21 February 2016 11: 55
    0
    Quote: iouris
    On the one hand, the New Ottoman Empire and Turan,

    The Ottomans considered the Türks to be Untermans, excluded.
  19. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 21 February 2016 12: 36
    +1
    About Turkish-Russian relations ... sad
    Inspired.
    In childhood I heard such a parody song for children:
    "Everything is torn between us. All paths are trampled.
    Don't play with my toys or pee in my pot. "
  20. The comment was deleted.
  21. Seal
    Seal 22 February 2016 11: 47
    0
    An identical situation occurred with the downed Russian SU-24, when Turkey made excuses to NATO. It is important to understand that no international organization can make such decisions. The decision on SU-24 could only be made by the highest echelon of Turkish power, that is, the President.

    Judging by Erdogan’s first reaction, he himself did not understand what had happened. Yes, before that he spoke, said, said that Turkey would bring down planes invading its airspace, but ..
    I once had a colleague who, as the head of the middle arm almost every day on the planning meetings, threatened his subordinates (fortunately, he had men on the planning meetings) that if they continue to work so badly, he will definitely come into contact with them in non-traditional sexual relations, moreover, he himself will be an active party.
    Well said. Some even joked about him, well, they say you only promise everything .. promise ....

    But you can imagine his stupor if an investigator ever really came to him and announced that "yesterday your employee was found dead, who was brutally raped before his death, it is clear that in an unconventional way."
    And then all the subordinates with rounded eyes would look at their boss, who, like sin, yesterday and the day before yesterday, promised everyone to do just that with the victim.