The report was prepared for the Internet conference "Crimea: yesterday, today, tomorrow", conducted by the journal Political Education.
Crimea is now the weakest link in Russian statehood, no matter how bitter it is to admit. There are many objective and subjective reasons for this. One of the most important is the self-identification and the “mentality” of the inhabitants of Crimea themselves.
As rightly pointed out in his study “Crimea. On the way to Russian identity ”(http://www.lawinrussia.ru/node/404660) dear Vyacheslav Petrov:
“Part of the practices based on the all-Ukrainian civil identification continues to work today ...
The training seminar conducted by BAGSU has had a positive impact on the process of secondary political socialization of Crimeans as citizens of the Russian Federation ...
After the referendum, Crimeans had increased expectations about the imminent improvement of life on the peninsula, which, naturally, could not be fully realized in such a short period of time, which caused dissatisfaction with certain aspects of life among some of the Crimean people ...
... among the unsolved problems, respondents called the continuing official bureaucracy, corruption, bribery, price rises, the absence of serious personnel changes in the state and municipal services, the stagnation of the state and municipal services. The problem of the quality of municipal and regional administration was identified as the most urgent and as a factor predetermining the emergence or preservation of acute problems. ”
In other words, the Crimeans for a long time, almost a whole generation, lived in completely different conditions of "mentality" and "rules." For such a long period of time, the Crimean people have developed a whole system of existence and survival in different from the Russian realities, both legislative and domestic. Crimeans are accustomed to a certain system - how to make money, how to protect themselves, their rights, their property, solve issues at the level of government and at the household level. To whom to file a complaint, with whom to reach an agreement, to whom to bribe - a whole complex of behavioral models, on which daily life depends. Now Crimeans have plunged into a new, almost unknown to them Russian reality, and it’s impossible to solve their problems, from household to commercial, as before. Skillfully playing on these problems, our opponents are trying to cause a certain social tension in various segments of the population of the Crimea. And our government often not only does not help, but also further intensifies these arisen tensions, risking to transfer them to the area of social protest. And it has all the chances for a certain success, since in the Crimea now there is a situation when new, already Russian, problems are superimposed on the old problems.
Against this background, I would divide the existing security problems into two components, external and internal. In this article I will try to consider them in as much detail as possible.
External problems. Crimea is Russia. This truth is already realized by all political statesmen in the world. All claims about the controversial nature of this reality are related to political games and information wars. Openly to produce armed aggression against the Crimea means to enter the war against Russia, with all the ensuing consequences. It is a different matter to influence Crimea with the help of a whole set of terrorist-sabotage methods and necessarily with someone else’s hands so that Russia cannot directly accuse any state of terror, which for the latter would mean the same war.
The maximum damage for the object of impact can be achieved only by the simultaneous use of the whole complex of measures, from external pressure, social pressure, information pressure to terrorist and sabotage actions. It must be admitted that our rivals, in particular, the Ukrainian side, by their very big stupidity, have already lost the possibility of maximum impact on the Crimea.
Imagine a situation where, simultaneously with military aggression against the Russian army, say, in Syria, when Russia is forced to maximally exert all its strength and capabilities, its outpost in this fight, the Crimea, would simultaneously have collapsed complex impacts from Ukraine - outage, overlapping water canal with preliminary poisoning of water, the application of biological in the biological laboratories of Odessa, Vinnitsa and Kharkov weapons in the form of epidemics of various diseases, blocking of all goods at the border, I’m not even talking about committing terrorist acts against peaceful citizens, representatives of the authorities and the infrastructure of the Crimea. All these measures, together, could cause maximum damage to Russia and the Crimea in particular. However, apparently, from the near mind, the Ukrainian side is extremely stupid and inefficient already used these levers, forcing the Russian side to take accelerated measures to protect the Crimea from such scenarios.
However, there are still many impact factors. First of all, it is the conduct of a terrorist war. To this end, in the Kherson region on the border with the Crimea, armed formations of the so-called are already being formed and concentrated. battalion "Crimea".
Against Assad to the beginning of the Maidan fought before the 500 of the Crimean Tatar radicals. By January-February, 2014, all of them were recalled to Kiev and were directly involved in the overthrow of Yanukovych. After the annexation of the Crimea to Russia, most of the extremists fled from the peninsula and joined the first punitive battalion "Crimea", created by Dzhemilev with money from Kolomoisky. But more than 2 500 supporters of Hizb ut-Tahrir al-Islami, banned in Russia, remained in the Crimea, and although quite recently there were more than 10 000 (http://ria.ru/incidents/20150330/1055412640) .html), but now they are all citizens of Russia, and can safely move throughout its territory.
In the vicinity of Sevastopol, in the territory of gardening and gardening cooperatives, which make up about 30% of the city, now there are about 250 thousands of illegal Ukrainians, mainly from the western and central regions.
It turned out during the last power outage Crimea from Ukraine. Energy consumption monitoring showed a disproportionately high level of its consumption in the region of gardening associations. And although the city authorities know about this problem, there are no reports in the press that it is somehow solved. Naturally, the majority of illegal immigrants came to Sevastopol for economic reasons, but among them there are necessarily supporters of extremist Nazi organizations of Ukraine, at a minimum, and specially trained people for activism in the Crimea as much as possible. Most of them are mobile, so they arrived in their own cars and all have a mobile connection.
Of course, the Russian security authorities are able to track and solve the problems of creating terrorist groups among these illegal immigrants both by operational and technical methods. But the scope of monitoring is too large; it is very difficult to cover this mass of people with operational methods. And technical methods in the form of special programs for the intellectual analysis of large arrays of databases capable among millions of connections, for billing phone calls, sms, messages in messengers, e-mail, fixing a stay "at the same time in one place", etc. to identify the real network structures of various terrorist cells and combat groups, in Russia began to be applied quite recently. And there is hardly a wide experience in using them for such large volumes of databases.
In the Kherson region there is an accumulation of igilovtsy from the CIS countries, returning from Syria through Turkey to Ukraine, as well as members of the Turkish terrorist organization Gray Wolves. They are based in the settlements of the Kherson region Chaplynka, Kalanchak, Novotroitsk, Genichesk, Vinogradovo, Apricot, Mayachka, Chervonny Chaban, Nikolaevka and others. According to the stories of local residents, several dozen people of Turkic and Middle Eastern appearance arrive there every day. In the area of the village Chervonny Chaban, such personalities have already accumulated up to one and a half thousand. The training of "shahidok" is entrusted to the notorious Amine Okuneva. The first and most expected goal is the Kerch ferry, infrastructure and state institutions of the Crimea.
Naturally, there is no talk of direct armed actions against the regular Russian army. The sole purpose of these groups is to carry out terrorist acts against Russia. Methods of penetration are also known. For the Islamists in Ukraine there is a massive purchase of Ukrainian passports. The cost of one passport - 15 000 dollars.
Even cheaper you can get a passport in the Donbas. It is reported that the cost of the Ukrainian passport there 20 000 rubles, LNRovsky - 3 000, and Russian - 60 000 rubles. And there will always be people ready for money not only to provide terrorists with passports, but also to transfer them across the Russian border.
The terrorists have already launched an information campaign to cover up their terrorist activities in the Crimea. Recently, the leaders of terrorists Amin Okunev and Adam Osmayev, who was detained in Odessa for an explosion in the house and preparing a terrorist act against Russian President Vladimir Putin, and later released by new Ukrainian authorities, reported on terrorist attacks in Crimea that were allegedly being prepared by Russian special services. That is, in the near future we should expect active terrorist manifestations, which according to the plan of the organizers will be written off to the Russian authorities themselves.
Armed provocations at Perekop and the Kerch ferry are possible, carried out with the help of small vessels, which can later be attributed to unknown armed formations that are not subordinate to the central Kiev authorities.
Internal problems. Unfortunately, all the security problems that exist in Russia automatically moved to the Crimea. First of all, this is control, and sometimes direct control, of state bodies of Russia from the side of western states and private structures.
The fact is that a large number of state bodies of Russia are controlled by Western consulting and audit companies. Russia annually spends 2 billion dollars for their maintenance. It is these organizations that write plans of action for our ministers, they are the ones who produce the audit. In other words, foreign companies require ministries to report on all transactions and plans, even those representing a state secret.
Central Bank: PricewaterhouseCoopers Audit (PwC) auditor. The developer of the risk management system is Oliver Wyman.
Ministry of Finance: KPMG, Deloitte.
Minstroy: attracted Deloitte & Touche CIS, PricewaterhouseCooper Russia B.V., PricewaterhouseCooper Audit, PricewaterhouseCoop Consulting, and KPMG CJSC.
Ministry of Transport: PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
Ministry of Economic Development: KPMG, Deloitte.
Russian Ministry of Industry: PriceWaterhouseCoopers, Deloitte.
The Federal Property Management Agency, the Ministry of Education and Science: PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
FAS, Rosfinnadzor: Deloitte.
Minsport: KPMG, PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
Ministry of Natural Resources, Ministry of Communications: Ernst & Young.
Department of Education: PriceWaterhouseCoopers.
Sberbank of Russia: Ernst and Young.
VTB: Ernst and Young.
Vnesheconombank: Ernst and Young.
Agricultural Bank: Ernst and Young.
Combined aviastr. building: KPMG.
Rosneft: Ernst and Young.
Gazprom Neft: PWC.
Simultaneously with Russia, the auditing company PricewaterhouseCoopers conducts an audit and diagnostics of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. The fact is that this company belongs to one of the most powerful pseudo-Christian sects of the USA - The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons). That is, both Russia and Ukraine completely give all their information and secrets of the ministries of defense and the military-industrial complex to a powerful organization that, besides its secret religious interests, is actively involved in politics, has a huge representation in all US security structures, such as the CIA, FBI, ANB , and owns the second largest sector of the US economy.
On the activities of the Mormons in Ukraine can be found from the articles:
1. "Mormons will steer Ukraine and its Ministry of Defense" http://kp.ru/daily/26305/3184359/.
2. “The Mormons will lead the information campaign against Russia in Ukraine” http://novorus.info/news/analytics/31781-rukovodit-infovoynoy-protiv-rossii-na-ukraine-budut-mormony.html.
On the religious, anti-state activities of the Mormons in organizing the orange revolutions and the destruction of the state system in Russia can be found in the article:
“Mormons among us: the church of God, or the fifth column?” (Http://maxpark.com/community/4797/content/2247975).
Naturally, with the arrival of all government ministries and departments, as well as large Russian banks and companies, these Western companies penetrated the Crimea, including the interests of leading Western intelligence agencies.
The degree of influence on the Crimean government bodies of these companies is difficult to overestimate. The West has opened up opportunities not only for sabotage, but also for direct influence on politics, the economy, security, and the making of vital decisions in the Crimea. This contributes to the exacerbation of the social situation, disillusionment of the Crimean people in the Russian government and, as a result, the emergence of acts of social protest.
For example, due to the failure of a legislative decision in the banking sector, thousands of Crimeans are exposed to the daily risk of being left homeless due to court decisions about the arrest of their property due to loans taken in Ukrainian banks.
This is stated in the statement of the deputies of the Crimean parliament: "The hotline of the State Council of the Republic of Crimea receives calls every day complaining about the actions of unknown persons who are trying to force them to pay the debt. Thousands of people are at daily risk of being left without a roof over their arrest court decisions their property. "
The document says that in the economic, transport, water, food and energy blockade of Ukraine, more than 350 thousands of Crimean people with financial obligations have to limit themselves to vital expenses in order to pay debts to collection agencies that bought them for pennies.
At the same time, the deputies state that the Ukrainian banks did not return their deposits to the Crimeans.
This is a vivid example of the activity, or rather, of inactivity, of the structures of the Russian government, clearly inspired from abroad.
Immediately after the reunification of the Crimea with Russia, a large-scale operation began to infiltrate into the new authorities both the former officials who had Nazi views, and the new representatives of the 5 column who had come from Russia.
This problem was raised not by the Russian security authorities, but by ordinary journalists, publicists and bloggers, such as Alexey Zotev (http://russiancommun.livejournal.com/), Boris Rozhin (http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/) and Sergey Kalyasnikov (http://zergulio.livejournal.com/).
"Information that in the territory of Crimea and Sevastopol acts not only the Ukrainian underground, ready to manifest itself at the first convenient moment, but also a large number of pro-Ukrainian activists and politicians who allegedly" changed "their political views and swore allegiance to Russia, voiced repeatedly and voiced at different levels ...
The first public manifestation of the “Ukrainian inheritance” took place in August 2015 in the city of Sevastopol. The problem of unauthorized construction, aggravated by local civil activists, somehow sharply developed into an anti-government protest aimed at the resignation of the governor of Sevastopol. At the head of the protest was one Ivan Komelov. He not only agitated the masses, but also caught up with the crowd of paid “activists”, who organized a collection of signatures under an appeal to the President of the Russian Federation with a request to dismiss Menyaylo. The participant of actions in support of the course on the European integration of Ukraine, the former coordinator of the Ukrainian Choice movement and the former head of the Sevastopol city organization of the Front Zmyin political party, suddenly imbued with the problems of the Russian Sevastopol ... ”
The mayor of Theodosia, Dmitry Shchepetkov, who was detained at the end of December on suspicion of bribery, was an active supporter of Ukrainian nationalists and intimidated the Crimeans during the “Russian Spring”.
After the Maidan, Shchepetkov accepted the Ukrainian authorities and in every way prevented the holding of pro-Russian rallies in the city.
“For example, on February 25, 2014, during a rally near the House of Officers fleet, the purpose of which was to initiate an extraordinary session of the City Council to determine the further political course towards Russia, Shchepetkov called on those gathered to recognize the results of the coup in Ukraine and submit to the new Kiev authorities ...
Before holding the Crimean referendum, he banned the publication of materials of a pro-Russian character in the newspaper Pobeda, and also decided to ban the placement of the headquarters of the national militia in the building of the Feodosia city administration. ”
Moreover, Shchepetkov himself and his adviser Vladimir Belsky, according to the newspaper, are supporters of Ukrainian nationalists:
“Back in October, 2013, Shchepetkov proposed to hang a portrait of Stepan Bandera in each office of the administration, and to the deputies’ question “Why?” Replied: “Spite to the Muscovites”. But the biography and views of the person close to him, whom Dmitriy Sergeyevich appointed as his advisor, Belsky Vladimir Mikhailovich, are curious. As we managed to find out, he is an active supporter of the nationalist Ukrainian ideology and is a knight of the Ukrainian Combatant Cross (the OUN-UPA award, published in various periods starting from the 1941 year). ”
The mayor of the city of Yekaterinburg, Yevgeny Roizman, who is in the open photographed with famous Ukrainian Nazis (http://peremogi.livejournal.com/16208269.html), landed a whole liberal pro-American belolentochny landing party into the power structures of Crimea. No wonder that Yekaterinburg has become a Mecca for politicians and diplomats of NATO countries and appointed a city where the first Maidan in Russia will be held.
The press secretary of the governor of Sevastopol, Admiral Menyaylo, was known for his numerous photographs with representatives of the United States, Russophobe, a hater of Russia and Putin, a member of PARNAS party, Eduard Zhuravlev.
There is information that a Pavlo Valentinovich Lebedov, a prominent Ukrainian businessman, a deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of three convocations, who evolved from members of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc into an ardent regionalist, and a former Minister of Defense of Ukraine recommended the governor of the new employee.
Some characters of the political elite of Sevastopol became known.
One of the activists of the local branch of the party “Fair Russia”, more precisely, a member of the Council of the regional branch, Oleg Laktionov, was in the past a member of one of the Ukrainian parties, the parties of the radical, anti-Russian sense, the party “Pora”. He even participated in the local elections in the 14 electoral district, but lost because of the openly Russophobic rhetoric of the Pora party, which was extremely irrelevant at that time in Crimea. The Sevastopol branch of the Pora party was headed by Oleg Laktionov’s own brother, Viktor, who is still helping his brother in his defiant political career. The founders of this structure were symbolic persons. Some of them still sit in the leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine, some settled in the government of the country and the mayor of Kiev. Victor himself, given his "turbulent" political past, does not particularly shine, preferring to push his brother Oleg forward. Also, which is extremely prudent, the former head of the branch of the “Pora” party brought his family to Kiev, where he goes periodically to “business trips”.
Ivan Komelov is now sitting in the Public Chamber, who moved from the party Yatsenyuk to Sevastopol.
The adviser to the governor of Sevastopol is a member of the Yekaterinburg landing, Akhmetov’s public relations worker, a member of the PARNAS party, Eduard Koridorov.
The video footage on this topic is very indicative:
The apotheosis of this absurd theater was the arrival in Crimea of the chief strategist German Gref and Sberbank, a kind of state in a state that does not recognize either the Russian president or Russian laws, and sets the return of the peninsula to Ukraine, Alexander Idrisov, the head of the daughter Sberbank Strategy Partners. Let me remind you that the interactive map of Sberbank Crimea is still in Ukraine.
Crimean participants in the strategic development session of Crimea Idrisov said that, in principle, the most important task for Crimea is to find a way to agree with the West on the lifting of sanctions. Because well, there can be no strategy with these damned sanctions. Need to negotiate. It is necessary. Well, for example, to hold, as they ask, a referendum ...
And he presented it as the will of Putin himself. Naturally. Idrisov received a fitting rebuff from the Crimeans. But the fact of how arrogantly and openly representatives of the Russian 5-column in the Crimea behave is indicative.
As we see, the efforts of the state authorities of Russia alone will not solve the problems of the security of Crimea. The civil position and activity of all the healthy patriotic forces of our society is very important and in many respects decisive.
Only the future of Crimea, as well as the future of Russia, depends on all of us all.