Military Review

Who will replace Angela Merkel?

49



German rulers are often lucky with the moments. Even the incomparable genius of Bismarck would not be enough to unite Germany, if by that time there were no appropriate conditions in the “European concert” (general fatigue from France, French-Austrian differences and Moscow’s desire to avenge Vienna for treason in the Crimean War) Hitler could never reconsider the conditions of Versailles if England and even France were not interested in defeating the USSR with the hands of a restored Germany. And now it seemed generous история again presented to the Germans a historical moment that could allow them to review the status quo in the EU (within which France played the role of political leader and Germany - economic) and become an absolute, dominant force within the European Union. The Crimean events that struck the Russian-German axis became an unpleasant moment for Angela Merkel, but the chancellor eventually managed to turn the situation in her favor. It used the general weakening of France and actually led the anti-Russian forces in the EU, and then slowly pushed Paris aside from other political issues (for example, Greek).

However, having lifted the leadership in the EU, abandoned by the French, from the floor, Germany could not justify high confidence. The problem is that leadership implies not only the current management of the system, but also the development of a strategy for its modernization and modification. Merkel, on the other hand, was not able to perform the function of a helmsman, resulting in failure or, at a minimum, failure to solve the main problems facing the EU.

Russian miscalculation

Who will replace Angela Merkel?

Screenshot from www.economist.com

In the Russian direction, Angela Merkel did not just break the wood - she questioned many of the achievements of her predecessors. As the British Economist rightly points out, one of the key moments of the previous German policy towards the USSR / Russia (the so-called Ostpolitik, Eastern policy) was the principle “to change through rapprochement”. And more recently, through this rapprochement, the European Union as a whole, and Germany in particular, could have achieved a lot from Russia - from support in the fight against the United States for equality and to modification of the Russian government through the growth of the middle class and its demands. Having refused from rapprochement and constructive dialogue, Merkel decided to replace this principle with “change through pressure”.

As expected, the result was unimportant - the hopes of Western politicians to force Putin to give up the Crimea and Donbass to Ukraine, and Ukraine to the West did not materialize. Moscow has stood, and now nods meaningfully at the current mess in Kiev, suggesting to the European Union to recognize Western mistakes in Ukraine. It seemed that in this situation Berlin needed to begin the process of normalizing relations with Moscow, but Merkel hesitates. She does not want to go against the interests of the United States, upset Poland and the Baltic states and provoke some kind of political crisis within the EU. Well, and besides, she probably refuses to recognize the status of a full-fledged European power for Russia, with its sphere of influence and interests in the matter of the collective security of Europe.

The only problem is that a “vacuum of participation” exists, and if Merkel does not fill it, then others will take advantage of it. Among potential candidates, for example, its allies in the ruling coalition are the Social Democratic Party of Germany. “The spirit of Ostpolitik lives in 10 minutes by taxi from the office of Merkel - in the German Foreign Ministry, led by social democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier. It is the Social Democrats who are behind the project to create a second pipe through the Baltic - Nord Stream-2. This project was officially announced by the German Minister of Economy Zigmar Gabriel - the leader of the Social Democrats, ”writes The Economist. The editorial board seriously feared that the Social Democrats would ignore the interests of Eastern Europe for the sake of establishing constructive relations with Russia. However, in order to play the main violin in foreign and domestic politics, Steinmeier and Gabriel need to win the election.

Another candidate is France, which is trying to become a bridge between the EU and Russia. If the current President Francois Hollande was in the place of Nicolas Sarkozy’s caliber leader, the process would have gone much faster and Paris would have been able to beat Berlin. In the meantime, the process of Russian-French rapprochement is rather sluggish, and Merkel still has time to work on the bugs.

European deadlocks

Another problem that Merkel could not solve was the choice of the vector of EU development. The Germans have not yet decided on how to take the organization out of a systemic crisis. Actually, there are not so many options. First, pushing the idea of ​​further centralization (opposed by a number of elites, as well as a significant part of the EU population, for which integration is already associated not with benefits, but with European bureaucrats far from the interests of the people and collective responsibility for other people's mistakes) Secondly, the concept of “Europe of different speeds”, within which several levels of integration are formed. Experts from Eastern European countries (which, for understandable reasons, will not be included in the list of “speedy” countries in terms of integration) claim that this approach will ruin the EU, but their fears are somewhat exaggerated. Rather, this approach may correct the strategic mistake that the EU made when it accepted into its ranks politically, economically, socially and culturally not ready for European integration Eastern European states. And finally, you can just run up to the British scenario - turn the EU into a kind of forum and return the powers from the central bodies of the European Union to the national governments. You just need to choose one of these options.


German Chancellor A. Merkel's visit to Turkey

In addition, Berlin could not offer an acceptable solution to the problem of migration. Merkel's idea of ​​welcoming migrants (of whom another million are expected this year) does not inspire anyone. Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia declared their readiness to block the so-called Balkan route - that is, to close the borders in order to avoid the flow of migrants to their countries. Even the French refused to support - Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic Manuel Weiss said his country would accept the agreed 30 thousands of refugees, but no more. 18-19 February 2016 will be held at the Euro Summit, where EU subordinates will want to hear from the German boss a real plan of action on the issue of migration. This topic will also be of interest to ordinary Germans - 81% of the German population does not agree with Berlin’s current problem-solving line. There seems to be no real plan. In the best traditions of the Roman Caesars, the German Chancellor prefers to buy off the “barbarians” in the person of Turkey instead of solving the problem. And the Turks, in the best traditions of the German barbarians, begin to tear up the price of their services - the initial 3 billion euros first turned into 5, and now they talk about 10 billions. Apparently, the political support of the Turkish position in Syria (for example, Merkel spoke in favor of Ankara’s proposal to create a no-fly zone in the north of the Syrian Arab Republic) is being added. Many in the EU (especially Italy) do not agree with such plans, and are not going to pay tribute to the Turks.

Who will rule?

Merkel's mistakes have already led to a drop in her rating from extremely high 70-80 percent to more than 40 (of course, not the final figure, but the dynamics is important here). March 13 will hold land elections in Baden-Württemberg, Rhineland-Palatinate and Saxony-Anhalt, and their results will be perceived as a kind of barometer of the relationship. Not only to Merkel, but also to the new national party “Alternative for Germany”. The elections will show how tired the population is of political correctness promoted by Merkel (including migrants), and how ready it is to overcome the psychological trauma of World War II and support the right forces. For some questions, ADG will pick up from 7 to 15% of votes.

Now in the Western political and academic environment there is a very serious discussion on how Merkel, Germany and the European Union to get out of this situation with leadership. How to return sobriety and pragmatism to European politics? After all, Merkel’s departure from the post of Chancellor and Germany as the EU leader will not, in fact, solve anything - the European Union as an organization now needs not democracy, but a firm hand that initiates and conducts serious structural reforms. Some politicians (for example, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder) speak of the need to return to the Franco-German axis, within which Paris and Berlin will balance each other. The problem is that this return is possible, however, only after the presidential election in France in April 2017, and even then only if a politician with at least some leadership qualities comes to the place of Hollande. And the European Union cannot wait for serious decisions for another year - they are needed here and now. Therefore, the reality is this: either Merkel will find the strength to play the role of leader, or the EU will have a very, very, very difficult year. Perhaps in some moments even fatal.
Author:
Originator:
http://expert.ru/2016/02/16/kto_zamenit_merkel/
49 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. AdekvatNICK
    AdekvatNICK 17 February 2016 15: 53
    10
    Yes, the grandmother is already dumped in the scrap she finalizes the term and leaves. It is a pity that she is not a man. So I always wanted to call her a goat.
    1. Malachite
      Malachite 17 February 2016 15: 58
      +5
      Quote: AdekvatNICK
      Yes, the grandmother is already dumped in the scrap she finalizes the term and leaves. It is a pity that she is not a man. So I always wanted to call her a goat.

      Yes, the old world of business has done ... Paul of Germany is already Arabs for free, but I am silent about Russia in general (Putin warned more than once ..) These are flowers, and berries in front ..
      1. Ami du peuple
        Ami du peuple 17 February 2016 16: 03
        12
        Quote: Malachite
        Putin warned more than once

        I remember that two years ago, an elderly Bundeskom member said that "Putin has lost touch with reality and is living in parallel." Well, whose reality turned out to be parallel in the end, Frau Merkel?
      2. Michael67
        Michael67 17 February 2016 16: 13
        +4
        Whatever they choose there, it will not be easier for Russia. You yourself understand who orders music in the west. There will be the same screaming, drooling, hammocks, migrants, etc., etc. by staff members, all this frenzy is provoked, supported and will be supported. And instead of an old woman without brains, they will put grandfather without brains and on strings.
      3. Zoldat_A
        Zoldat_A 17 February 2016 16: 25
        +5
        Quote: Malachite
        These are flowers, and the berries in front ..

        Yeltsin's "friend Kolya" was taken for a filet for illegal financing of something there? They were kicked out from everywhere, for health reasons at least they were not imprisoned. And this old ashtray only got scared to get sick after retirement. Then maybe not touched ...

        This is our humpbacked ride around the Americas. The Germans will not forgive her - She did for Germany and the European Union no less than Humpbacked did for the USSR. Grabbed by a wrinkled ass so that torn off the bones!
        1. jjj
          jjj 17 February 2016 16: 59
          +4
          Here, too, for some reason I thought that even a very advanced state could have its own Brokeback
        2. square
          square 17 February 2016 17: 29
          +1
          Quote: Zoldat_A
          Quote: Malachite
          These are flowers, and the berries in front ..

          Yeltsin's "friend Kolya" was taken for a filet for illegal financing of something there? They were kicked out from everywhere, for health reasons at least they were not imprisoned. And this old ashtray only got scared to get sick after retirement. Then maybe not touched ...

          This is our humpbacked ride around the Americas. The Germans will not forgive her - She did for Germany and the European Union no less than Humpbacked did for the USSR. Grabbed by a wrinkled ass so that torn off the bones!

          The Germans in the ass? I doubt something very much. They degenerated, even men are already effeminate. The Arabs in Cologne didn’t take anything for their ass, they worried more and more about their own.
      4. Samen
        Samen 17 February 2016 16: 50
        +5
        Putin warned more than once .. These are flowers, and the berries in front ..
      5. Lelek
        Lelek 17 February 2016 17: 53
        +1
        Quote: Malachite
        ) These are flowers, and the berries in front ..


        You have definitely noticed that the berries are not yet ripe. In March-April, the Mediterranean Sea will become warmer and then the "spawning season" will begin - schools of migrants will again rush to Greece, the Balkan coast and Italy. Word of mouth "radio east" has already broadcast about the abundance of free food, free allowances, free housing, free European women and unpunished actions up to murder. So, the Families of the previous and persons of the next generations of "migrants" have already been sharpened to move towards "mom-merkel" and "dad-kemeron". Euroemirate VIVAT !!! bully
    2. kil 31
      kil 31 17 February 2016 16: 06
      0
      Quote: AdekvatNICK
      Yes, the grandmother is already dumped in the scrap she finalizes the term and leaves. It is a pity that she is not a man. So I always wanted to call her a goat.

      Yes, call her a goat or a dumb sheep, you can be dumb bright, she has no children.
    3. Civil
      Civil 17 February 2016 16: 11
      -1
      Whoever comes, nothing will change, enough to believe in autocratic rule in developed states, in mature societies there is no need for authoritarian leaders.
      1. oldseaman1957
        oldseaman1957 17 February 2016 16: 45
        0
        Quote: Civil
        enough to believe in autocratic rule in developed countries
        - If another 1-2 million parasites arrive on the land of the promised motherland, the mass may become critical, and in this "developed" state, like out of the snuffbox, a new Hitler will appear, or Mussolini, no difference, but he will appear!
      2. bannik
        bannik 17 February 2016 17: 39
        0
        Let me disagree with you. Roosevelt, Kennedy (which is John), Churchill, Thatcher, de Gaulle, well, etc. - a lot has changed from their arrival / departure, and their states cannot be called undeveloped / underdeveloped and immature societies (by their concepts, of course). Nobody has canceled the role of personality in History!
    4. Vend
      Vend 17 February 2016 16: 38
      +3
      Quote: AdekvatNICK
      Yes, the grandmother is already dumped in the scrap she finalizes the term and leaves. It is a pity that she is not a man. So I always wanted to call her a goat.

      There is a more worthy candidacy is Sarah Vagenkeneneh.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 17 February 2016 18: 06
        0
        Quote: Wend
        There is a more worthy candidacy is Sarah Vagenkeneneh.



        I also like Sarah, but in politics the "like - dislike" categories are not quoted. There is a completely different qualification and very often mercantile (like you tell me - I tell you). I would very much like to know how many real Eureka Chancellor Merkel put in her favorite mattress while sitting on the throne. Somebody knows? Throw it off. bully
    5. Sasha_Sar
      Sasha_Sar 17 February 2016 16: 55
      +2
      Call a bitch or a bitch ...
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 17 February 2016 18: 09
        0
        Quote: Sasha_Sar
        Call a bitch or a bitch ...


        Are you talking about whom so decisively, are you our severe? bully
  2. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich 17 February 2016 15: 57
    +2
    Who will replace Angela Merkel?
    Wagenknecht is unlikely. The second time in a row the Germans will beware of a woman trusting ... what
    1. ya.seliwerstov2013
      ya.seliwerstov2013 17 February 2016 16: 09
      -1
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      .the second time in a row the Germans will beware of a woman trusting ...

      If Andrew such a country, Germany will still exist.


      Along the way, Russia mother will remain alone. The rest will be tribes. Half of the state.
      1. Amurets
        Amurets 17 February 2016 17: 31
        0
        Quote: ya.seliwerstov2013
        If Andrew such a country, Germany will still exist.

        Germany has always been strong in alliance with Russia. As it broke the alliance, it was so defeated. And now in Germany, in my opinion, there were no Western Slavs who could at least somehow rely on Russia and Germany. Orientation towards the Saxons of German good And anyone who hasn’t come to power in Germany now, it will be very difficult for him to build his relations with Russia and France and with England. Whatever the case, France, Germany and Great Britain will be able to resist the United States if they plant small mongrels. on a short financial leash, allocating quotas according to payments to the budget of the European Union.
    2. vlad_vlad
      vlad_vlad 17 February 2016 20: 16
      0
      according to a poll this Sunday - Wagenknecht has no chance. her party (left) now has <10% support. Merkel's party has 32,5%. The Social Democrats are in second place with 22,5%.
      Who Merkel is really dangerous is competitors from her own party. Just as she once "moved" Helmut Kohl, someone from her own party can move her.
  3. haak1970
    haak1970 17 February 2016 15: 57
    0
    Therefore, the reality is as follows: either Merkel will find the strength to play the role of a leader, or the EU expects a very, very, very difficult year. Perhaps in some moments even fatal.
    Something tells us that it’s not fatal, but en .... th.
  4. gamer
    gamer 17 February 2016 15: 57
    +7
    In Germany there were two leaders who destroyed their country !!! This is Hitler and Merkel! Only one destroyed physically, and this politically!
  5. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 17 February 2016 16: 02
    +2
    The new prime minister will be "Eurotolirast" - more precisely "a blue Arab from among migrants
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 17 February 2016 18: 11
      0
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      The new prime minister will be "Eurotolirast" - more precisely "a blue Arab from among migrants


      You are the great-grandfather of Zeus himself, you know better in advance. bully
  6. Zeppelin ml.
    Zeppelin ml. 17 February 2016 16: 02
    0
    Quote: AdekvatNICK
    Yes, the grandmother is already poured into the scrap she modifies the term and leaves

    it seems that Frau Merkel is going to run for the post of UN Secretary General after the chancellor’s career ends.
    Hillary is also read there if she blows the presidency. And the third character, Ms. Bokova, is generally an interesting lady, judging by her work at UNESCO. The office at her was corrupted by the very tomatoes.
  7. Bulrumeb
    Bulrumeb 17 February 2016 16: 03
    0
    Who will replace Angela Merkel?

    I think that we should not care who replaces it. Russia should pursue its line, and not adapt to someone else.
  8. Primus pilus
    Primus pilus 17 February 2016 16: 06
    +1
    Old Merkel lies under the Turks as the last b ..... already look disgusting. I think anyone or anyone wakes up better than her.
  9. Abbra
    Abbra 17 February 2016 16: 09
    +1
    Merkel, and her followers may well be replaced by some Arab conqueror of Geyvropa ...
  10. haak1970
    haak1970 17 February 2016 16: 09
    0
    https://im3-tub-ru.yandex.net/i?id=7757323f8c2954279ebbf9e230f59625&n=33&h=215&w
    = 382- there is someone to replace it!
  11. Betahon
    Betahon 17 February 2016 16: 10
    +1
    Like who?! Of course, Sarah Wagenknecht!
  12. newcomer
    newcomer 17 February 2016 16: 14
    +3
    Merkel squandered the championship of Germany in Europe. I don’t know how she did it, but conspiracy theorists say the Yankees are holding her for tomatoes with dirt from her youth.
  13. Vladislav 73
    Vladislav 73 17 February 2016 16: 18
    0
    "Moscow's desire to avenge Vienna for the betrayal in the Crimean War" - actually, the desire of St. Petersburg. if it comes to that ... Who is the author at all? - if he makes such mistakes! And one more thing, there is a critical mass in the air of a nearby explosion, and it is not known where it will explode ... maybe in Europe. And the author calmly talks about some abstract concepts - leadership, a drop in the rating, what will this or that politician do. As if the author, together with the European bureaucrats, live in parallel world, and they have a carriage of time .... but it is not! IMHO
  14. mikh-korsakov
    mikh-korsakov 17 February 2016 16: 21
    +1
    But she is a physicist by training, a representative of a respected profession, she worked in the USSR in Dubna, she knows the Russian language. There was a Komsomol member, with a stretch of beauty, an excellent student, but turned into ... (everyone himself understands whom). I wonder what the Americans caught her with, that with such diligence she began to wash the black master's pantaloons?
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Dr. Bormental
      Dr. Bormental 17 February 2016 17: 55
      +1
      I wonder what the Americans caught her with, that with such diligence she began to wash the black master's pantaloons?

      Young Frau Merkel goes to torture Russian partisans
  15. AIR-ZNAK
    AIR-ZNAK 17 February 2016 16: 25
    0
    In the near future, we will look at the statements of the president of the most greasy land (Bavaria) and will promote the press of Berlin. Steinmeier-how diplomatically-diplomatically will be silent Dam at the helm of power will not miss
  16. A-Sim
    A-Sim 17 February 2016 16: 32
    +1
    I think that the candidate will be selected for Akiyan, in the "glorious" Uashinkhtonsk.
  17. Mainbeam
    Mainbeam 17 February 2016 16: 35
    +1
    Who will replace Angela Merkel?

    Complete nonsense. The last example with Yaysenik in 404. The same canoe with Merkel. We remember that the German chancellor is actually approved for the post by the Yankos, who are the chancellor directly. Merkel is a talking head, like Psaki, only there is more visible power. Therefore, the question "Angela Merkel not just broke firewood"- just a maximum of superficiality. Nobody will go anywhere. And if they replace it, then with the same" talking head ".

  18. vobels
    vobels 17 February 2016 16: 46
    0
    "..Merkel turned out to be unable to perform the steering function, .." Given the refugee situation, it can be assumed that right-wing radicals will receive a majority.
  19. rudik
    rudik 17 February 2016 17: 26
    +2
    Forgive the old one already with slang: 404 is that Ukraine is now called that))) ????
    1. wagner72
      wagner72 17 February 2016 17: 28
      +1
      Yeah, the file was not found.
      1. Lelek
        Lelek 17 February 2016 18: 25
        +1
        Quote: wagner72
        Yeah, the file was not found.


        The file was found, but the error file which has a BIG (no, just huge) problem with the sysadmin. Last rated out of competition.
    2. Dr. Bormental
      Dr. Bormental 17 February 2016 19: 35
      0
      When the computer cannot find any file, it displays the message: "Error 404. File not found." Well, they called it Square smile hi
    3. The comment was deleted.
    4. The comment was deleted.
  20. Dr. Bormental
    Dr. Bormental 17 February 2016 17: 34
    0
    I remember about 10 years ago I read an article in Komsomolskaya Pravda (they interviewed some retired Amer military) that for America the worst thing could be to allow close cooperation and good relations between Russia and Germany, because only these two countries are capable of bearing the military threat of the usa. Well, in the union - you yourself understand - a complete loss of control over Europe. And then as to order in 2005. this toad becomes chancellor of Germany. Already then, gossip in the newspapers went that she was a US protege, and her goal was the collapse of our relations, that she brilliantly fulfilled and even seemed to exceed it — all of Europe came into a chaotic movement, the existence of the EU is already in question. Well done Americans, they know how to balance the world. I’m wondering how it all ends. I read the comments of our emigrants from Germany - they write that the local population is eager to plant merkel on the pitchfork already. I don’t know, really?

  21. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 17 February 2016 17: 34
    0
    Nobody can replace Angelka Merkuliev! So about ... the EU - this is a TALENT must be!
  22. Dr. Bormental
    Dr. Bormental 17 February 2016 17: 44
    +1
    How Germans in Germany relate to Merkel
  23. eternalmotor
    eternalmotor 17 February 2016 18: 34
    +1
    Judging by the picture, we can say the following:

    Merkel: - Hey, Barackushka, Vovka has such a dick!
    Obama: - How do you know?
    Merkel (blushing): - Yes, I passed by.

    laughing
  24. mr.grin19z
    mr.grin19z 17 February 2016 18: 47
    0
    that Merkel that Poroshenko one field berry
  25. unsinkable
    unsinkable 17 February 2016 19: 34
    +1
    If this torn goat is turned, then, undoubtedly, the Americans will push through the next puppet. And no matter what the new talking head will be called.
    1. Dr. Bormental
      Dr. Bormental 17 February 2016 19: 41
      0
      In general, Hans is not the most patient people. They can get out at rallies. On the other hand, chic amer propaganda worked there - they consider us enemies, savages, etc.
  26. vovan089
    vovan089 17 February 2016 22: 35
    0
    Give a red-black Dahl instead of lahudra Angels !!!
  27. EDP
    EDP 18 February 2016 00: 47
    0
    Each nation is worthy of its rulers, so Baba Merkel is the image of Germany: an old, climax woman.
  28. Evil 55
    Evil 55 18 February 2016 04: 22
    0
    Oh, and the Führer Donetsk Polytechnic taught nothing to the Frauer in the old days ... Neither German conscience nor conscience, nor specificity .. Like the Voting KiViN, the right word ..