Iran on the way to the creation of the Shiite caliphate
Given the tense situation around Iran and its nuclear program, it is necessary to consider in more detail the situation in this country in the field of national security, the atomic and space programs of this country, the main problems in domestic and foreign policy.
At present, in the capital of the Islamic Republic, in the center for holding air shows, they began to build an aerospace technology center - “Kakhkeshan” (“Galaxy”). The Iranians plan to build it in two years, at the first stage of development the center will occupy an area of 24 hectares. Farahi (head of the Headquarters for the development of aerospace technologies) said that more than a hundred firms that work in the field will work in the aerospace technology center aviation and space.
In addition, Tehran is considering the construction of an aerospace industrial zone (or aerospace industrial campus). Already being searched for a place for him. At the same time, the Iranians are planning to build a national cosmodrome. In 2009, Iran launched its first artificial satellite, Omid (“Hope”), in 2010, the Iranians sent animals into space. In February 2011, the Iranians presented to the public the prototypes of four artificial satellites - “Rassad” (“Observation”), “Fajr” (“Dawn”), “Zafar” (“Victory”) and “Amir Kabir-1”. And also showed new engines for the Safir-B1 rocket (Messenger-B1). In June, the Rassad satellite was launched into space 2011. Zafar is scheduled to launch in 2012 year. Fajr is the first remotely probing satellite of Iran, which is capable of moving from an elliptical orbit (300-450 km) to a circular orbit (from 450 km to Earth). Iran is also developing a new booster rocket, Simorg (Phoenix). Around 2020, Iranians plan to launch a man into space.
The Iranian space program is associated with the development of the rocket potential of the Islamic Republic. In October of this year, Iranian Defense Minister Ahmad Vahidi said that the country is completing work to create a new sea-based cruise missile Zafar (Triumph, Victory), and it will soon enter the armed forces. According to the Iranians, this system will greatly enhance the country's military potential. In the last decade, Iran has made significant progress in the field of various weapons, including missile ones. In September, 2011 was presented to the public by a Kader sea-launched missile with a range of 200 kilometers. Among the features of this sea-based missile, the Iranians noted the ability to fly at low altitudes, a significant destructive ability, low weight and size, as well as its high accuracy. "Kader" can hit sea targets and coastal objects. The missiles were put into service with the Iranian Navy, the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) and put into mass production.
During the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988, Tehran launched a program to develop national armaments. This was due to the embargo imposed by the United States on the sale of Iran’s weapons. From the beginning of the 1990-ies, Iran began to produce national armored vehicles and missiles. Work is underway to upgrade the existing models of the national fighter “Saiege” (“Thunderbolt”) and “Azarashsh” (“Lightning”) - these are modified analogues of the American F / A-18 and F-5E / F Tiger II. Their production began in 2008, and in 2010, the Sayege fighter squadron was demonstrated at the Iranian air show.
Work is also underway in Iran in the field of creating unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Thus, the commander of the security forces, Ismail Ahmadi Mokaddam, said that the borders of the country will be protected with the help of UAVs. UAVs have already entered service, and now the staff is undergoing appropriate training. These devices will allow to strengthen control at the border and strike at the business of smugglers and drug dealers.
The Iranian military has reported developments in radar systems. In the summer, information appeared on the creation of the Iranian long-range radar, which is able to detect targets at a distance of more than 1 thousands of kilometers. The Ghadir Radar, according to Iranians, is capable of tracking aircraft, ballistic missiles and low-flying satellites at altitudes up to 300 kilometers from the surface of the planet. In addition, the Iranians are working to improve the radar, and the radar will operate within 3 radius thousand kilometers. In October, information appeared about the creation of a radar that is capable of not only detecting, but also destroying enemy unmanned aerial vehicles. This allows you to control all approaches to the air space of Iran. Iran also received such a defense system from the Russian Federation as the Avtobaz. This truck-based system is capable of generating radar interference for airplanes and electronic equipment, which is used in guided missile guidance systems. There is information that Avtobaz is capable of detecting and creating electronic interference simultaneously for 60 different targets within an 150-kilometer radius in the 360 range of degrees.
The Iranians are doing a lot of work in the area of the Navy. Tehran believes that Iran should become one of the world centers of power in the new multipolar world, therefore, the Iranian Navy should have the strength not only to protect the country's coast, but also to represent the republic in the oceans. In January 2011, the Deputy Commander of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Iran, Vice Admiral Gulam-Reza Hadem Beigam, said that the country, due to its strategic location, needs a powerful navy to protect maritime borders. Therefore, the Iranian Navy is designing a new generation of destroyers. Back in February 2010, the first Iranian-made destroyer with a guided missile was launched weapons - “Jamaran.” According to Iranian experts, this was a real breakthrough in naval technology. The ship is able to fight with ships, aircraft and submarines of the enemy.
In mid-October, Iran’s Defense Minister General Wahidi, during a visit to the Caspian port of Anzeli, announced that Iranian ships would be present in the Atlantic Ocean. In his opinion, the Islamic Republic has a significant naval presence in the Caspian Sea, the Persian and Oman gulfs, the Indian Ocean and other world waters, and is now going to carry out its presence also in the Atlantic Ocean. In the very near future, the second Jamaran class destroyer will enter the combat formation of the Iranian Navy.
The great power can not do without its aircraft carriers, and the Islamic Republic is taking steps in this direction. In October, the deputy commander of the Iranian Navy for research and operational autonomy, Mansur Maksudlu, said that the country had already done a lot of work on the design and construction of various types of ships and now "the fleet intends to design and build helicopter carriers and aircraft carriers." The commander of the Iranian Navy has already approved the results of the draft design of Iranian aircraft carriers, and soon the country will begin to carry out relevant research and development work. According to Maksudlu, this is a long job, but Iran is able to build its own aircraft carrier.
Much work has been done and is being done in the preparation of sabotage activities in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. For this purpose, missile boats, small submarines are being commissioned, basing points have been created, the corresponding infrastructure, and work is under way on the development of anti-ship missiles. The Iranians are planning, in the event of the start of the war of the Western coalition and Israel against Iran, to make the export of hydrocarbons as difficult as possible. The 600-ton Fateh submarine (“Conqueror”) of Iranian production will soon come into service with the Iranian Armed Forces, it is armed with missile systems, capable of putting sea mines, diving to 200-meter depth and sailing for 5 weeks.
Do not forget in Tehran and other high-tech areas. The Iranians said they had developed a model of an electromagnetic gun (railgun), which shoots steel 8-mm bullets without a detonating warhead. After the United States and Israel carried out a successful cyber-attack against the computer network of the country's atomic program, Iran created a special structure that would include not only scientists, but also the military. The organization will deal with the defense of the country against cyber criminals. She will work in close cooperation with other special services of Iran. Iran is constantly improving its missile systems, so, during the recent explosions at the Iranian military base near Tehran, General Hassan Moghaddam, who was considered one of the key figures in the defense program of the Islamic Republic, was killed. The general led the development of the Shihab-4 rocket, which is capable of hitting a target within a radius of 2 thousand kilometers.
Iran's nuclear program
In October, the head of the nonproliferation and disarmament program at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, Mark Fitzpatrick, said that one can be sure that Iran will have no nuclear weapons within a year, but after two years there will be no such certainty. progress in all key aspects. The country has all the possibilities to soon become a nuclear power.
Many other experts, scientists and politicians hold similar views. The head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), Faridun Abbasi, said in October that in the very near future the republic could take the place of the leading exporter of nuclear equipment in the world. All this causes great concern among the countries of the West and Israel. It should be noted that the West wants to keep the monopoly on nuclear technology behind it. Moreover, often attacks on nuclear projects of other countries are associated with environmental motives and the "threat" of the proliferation of nuclear weapons around the planet, falling into the hands of "dictators" and "terrorists."
On October 17, a solemn ceremony was held at the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, which was dedicated to the transfer of the first industrial party in the country to the “Yellow Cake” (yellow cake). it can be used both in nuclear energy and for the production of nuclear weapons). This batch will be used at a uranium enrichment plant in the city of Isfahan. Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said on this occasion that in less than six months, the Islamic Republic will begin producing nuclear fuel.
And in November, hysteria began about the IAEA report on the Iranian nuclear program. The report in vague wording said that the Iranian nuclear program pursues military objectives. Israeli politicians again started talking about the possibility of a military strike against Iran, since Israel cannot allow the emergence of nuclear weapons in Iran. Around the world, a powerful information campaign was conducted on the "demonization" of Iran and its nuclear program.
Iran’s foreign policy is dominated by two trends. First, it is a confrontation with the West (primarily with the United States and Great Britain), Israel, and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. Secondly, it is the construction of a new world center of power, conditionally it can be called the “Shiite Caliphate”.
In the sphere of confrontation with the West and the “Zionists”, several high-profile events have recently occurred. This is the exposure by the US authorities of the “Iranian conspiracy” against the Saudi ambassador to the United States. "Iranian terrorists" also had to arrange the undermining of the Israeli embassy in Washington and the embassies of Saudi Arabia and Israel in Argentina. In addition, the Iranians allegedly planned to supply opium from the Middle East to Mexico and the United States with the help of the powerful Mexican drug cartel "Los Zetas". This event caused a strong anti-Iranian wave in the world, especially in the West and in the Arab monarchies. There was even an opinion that this scenario was developed by the Iranian opposition or third countries that are interested in armed conflict between the West and Iran.
The scandal with the assassination further heated Iran’s relations with the United States and worsened the already complex relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Riyadh has already accused the Islamic Republic of fomenting unrest among the Shiites of Saudi Arabia.
The West delivered another powerful information strike on Iran with the help of the IAEA report. It was after him that the topic of the “Iranian nuclear threat” was raised again in Israel. Moreover, it was even said about the strike of the Israeli Air Force on Iranian nuclear facilities, this plan was discussed at the level of the government and military command of the Jewish state. And the last scandal was associated with the pogrom of the British embassy in Iran. There are statements about the need to introduce new sanctions against Iran.
Tehran is undoubtedly worried about anti-Iran and anti-Shiite sentiments in a number of Arab countries. Iran’s supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, said in October that the enemies of Islamic unity - ““ arrogant and Zionists ”- are plotting plots and intrigues in order to strike at the Islamic world, to split it. And Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Akhani noted that any complications in relations between the states of the Middle East region will play into the hands and meet the interests of the United States and the Zionist regime.
At the same time, Tehran is not averse to using the Arab unrest in their own interests. To confirm in practice the ideas of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ruhollah Khomeini, about the “world Islamic revolution”, about Iran’s leadership in this process. Therefore, the Iranian leadership has supported popular unrest in the Arab states of North Africa and the Middle East, calling them "Islamic awakening." Iran expressed hope for the establishment of "Islamic democracy" in Libya. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called on the Arab community to fight the main evil coming from the Western world - imperialism.
Only in Syria, the ideas of the “Islamic revolution” with the unconditional leadership of Iran are replaced by rationalism - Syrian President Bashar Asad is one of the few Iranian allies in the world. Tehran has accused external forces of organizing Syrian unrest that want to create a “security belt” around Israel. Another ally of Iran is Khartoum, Northern Sudan under the leadership of Omar al-Bashir. After the coup d'état committed by al-Bashir in 1989, he brutally Islamized the country (which led to a bloody civil war and eventually caused the disintegration of the country, created the potential for a war between Southern and Northern Sudan), bringing Khartoum and Tehran closer together. Currently, Iran supports North Sudan on the issue of the problem of Darfur, Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states. Khartoum is waiting for the Iranians to make significant investments in the country's economy.
With regard to the Palestinian problem, Tehran takes a very tough position - Iran is against the idea of resolving the Palestinian conflict by creating two states. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that "all land belongs to the Palestinians." According to Tehran, the "Zionist entity" should be eliminated. Iranian leaders regularly hold Zionist “exposures”.
Recently, Iran’s relations with Turkey are deteriorating. Both powers claim to be the leader of the Islamic world, so the conflict is programmed with the ideas of the Ottoman Empire - 2 and the Shiite Caliphate. Although they have a question, where the Turks and Iranians are in solidarity, is the problem of the Kurds. Ankara and Tehran severely suppress the Kurdish national liberation movement. In addition, countries can profitably cooperate in the supply of hydrocarbons from Iran to Europe. Now Iranian-Turkish relations complicate two issues: the Syrian problem and the agreement to deploy the American missile defense radar on Turkish territory.
The main domestic political problem
The struggle between the opponents of President Ahmadinejad and his supporters. There is a campaign to discredit the president himself and his associates. The reason for this campaign was a scandal, which is associated with fraud in the amount of 2,8 billion US dollars. This event is considered the largest embezzlement in the Islamic Republic. According to the voiced information, the Iranian banks Saderat, Bank Melli, Tat Bank, the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Economy were involved in this financial speculation. In connection with this incident, a number of officials of the Islamic Republic, as well as the heads of banks Saderat and Melli, resigned, and some left the state. Dozens of people were arrested and came under investigation. As part of the investigation of the case, the Iranian parliamentary commission recognized the need to conduct investigative measures against the administration of the Iranian president. There is an opinion that Esfandiyar Rahim Mashai (he is also a relative of Ahmadinejad - the president’s son is married to the daughter of Mashai), who was considered a protégé of Ahmadinejad to the position of head of state, took part in the scam.
There is an opinion that the attack on the Iranian President is related to the fact that the country is plagued by conflict between the “old revolutionaries”, conservative forces and the young generation of leaders who are trying to modernize the country's policy in response to the challenges of the time. That is, it is actually a systemic political crisis associated with the need to modernize the system created by Ayatollah Khomeini.
- Alexander Samsonov