Military Review

Someone introduce our Ministry of Finance to Indian economists

59
In the courtyard - a time of low oil prices, exchange rate turbulence, anti-Russian economic sanctions, lower incomes in the state treasury. And economic gurus from the cabinet of ministers and, specifically, from the ministry of finance come in with new forecasts on the dynamics of the Russian financial and economic system. More precisely - not quite. Economic gurus do not even predict, but, as they themselves say, “calculate” the situation right up to the year 2030. In 2012, it was impossible to calculate on 2013, in 2013, on 2014, etc., and then, you know, just before 2030, bang and you're done! Or is fortune-telling on the lamb shoulder that is usual for the economic government bloc again being issued for a well-thought calculation?


Someone introduce our Ministry of Finance to Indian economists


It is doubly interesting to look at the results of economic calculations, which publishes the newspaper. "Vedomosti" with reference to the main financial department of the country. And not only to look at the calculations of the Ministry of Finance themselves, but also on how the economic bloc, as they say, is here and now ready to respond to the challenges.

So, the results of the “calculations” are as follows: on average, the Russian economy up to 2030 will grow within 1-1,3% per year with the growth of imports of goods at the level of 3-4% per year. The economic level of the GDP of 2014 will be restored not earlier than 2020 of the year, and the income level of the population of the sample of the same 2014 will be restored not earlier than 2025.

According to the Ministry of Finance, over the 15 years the Russian economy will grow by 13%. For comparison: at current economic growth rates, for example, India will need less than 2 years to reach this percentage of growth ... Fifteen against two, and also considering that India is not an exporter, but an importer of main energy sources and the population of India in 8 is more than the population of Russia more than once ... Proceeding from this, it remains to shrug your shoulders and think about what universities the Indian government economists studied at, and whether to send our gurus there for an internship?

Yes, of course, we can say that it is incorrect to compare India and Russia, since in India there are serious problems with the level of poverty. But we must not forget that, in principle, problems with poverty can be solved - and only in the last 10 years the number of Indian citizens living below the poverty line has decreased by almost 20%. Moreover, it is possible and necessary to compare, if only because both Russia and India are members of BRICS.

What did economists of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation repelled from when they carried out their calculations? The main thing - again the price of oil. According to the estimates of the “experts”, the price of a barrel of “black gold” will reach the average annual mark of 50 dollars only by the 2028 year. And here, even if from the depths of the soul, the inner voice says about the need to listen to such Minfin forecasts, then with confidence in the forecasts it will still be, to put it mildly, not very ... Why? Yes, if only because there is not a single person in the world who could predict oil prices by as much as fifteen years ahead with at least 3-5 dollars. There is no person who knows exactly what the ruble / dollar exchange rate will be in the same 15 years. And if he knows, then with the publication of forecasts certainly not in a hurry.

For example (data from Blog): the so-called agency for forecasting the economy (not even the Ministry of Finance, but the whole forecasting agency) at the beginning of 2014, the ruble predicted the fall of the ruble to 2016, even to 37 per dollar. As the Internet meme says (if to paraphrase a little): to 37 for a dollar, Karl! ..



And to 2018, they say, they will give 32-33 per unit of the “most democratic” currency in the world ... Well, by the 2028 year, the dollar will completely fail before 24's ...

The forecasters themselves look like the main excuse for themselves: well, we in 2014 didn’t know what the Crimea would be, the sanctions, all that ... As if the whole thing was solely about the sanctions and the reunification of Russia with the Crimea and Sevastopol. But even if it is assumed that “because of this,” the forecast did not come true (on 2016, at least), then the new question to the forecasters (and already the Ministry of Finance): how great is your confidence that until the 2030, there are no tectonic changes in world politics will not happen, and that the economy of the Russian Federation will behave approximately the way it leads today?

Well, God bless them - with these forecasts and forecasters. The only thing that you can still pay attention to in this case is that someone receives funding for such forecasts, is counting on accounts, calculators or in Excel spreadsheets, someone is trying to prove that it will be so . What then? The forecast is simply washed down the drain, and the forecasters sit down at other forecasts, trying to justify the inconsistency of previous calculations, with new statements in the style of "well, we could not know that this and that will happen."

The most important thing lies elsewhere - how is the economic bloc of the Russian government going to respond to its own forecast, according to which the Russian economy will in fact be trampled on? Or the forecast for 1% growth per year is a kind of setting for ourselves on doing nothing soon?

So about the reaction of the Ministry of Finance. The first initiative with which Anton Siluanov’s department comes out against the background of the publication of the economic forecast (up to 2030 of the year) is connected with the “necessity” of selling Gokhran diamonds. Sales of diamonds in Gokhran are scheduled for auctions on February 29 and March 10 in auction mode. AT "Izvestia" it is reported that in the framework of the "crisis sale" in 2016, the Ministry of Finance plans to get rid of 167,5 thousand carats of precious stones. To compare with what: for the whole 2015 year, about 9 thousand carats of Gokhran diamonds were sold.

Not only the “anti-crisis” initiative of the Ministry of Finance itself is interesting, but also the fact that relatively small stones will be sold, the demand for which in the world market is low due to the high saturation of the market with this kind of “stones”. Moreover, the resulting surplus as a result of the auctions of the Ministry of Finance can completely bring down the price for medium-sized diamonds, as a result of which the total income in the case of sale will not exceed 1,5 billion rubles. These are estimates. And on the scale of the entire Russian economy, 1,5 billion rubles is clearly not the amount that looks “anti-crisis”. If this is the Ministry of Finance’s plans to overcome the crisis, then the next step is to expect not only the sale of diamond funds, but also, for example, the exhibition facilities of the Tretyakov Gallery or the Hermitage ... And what? But what if...

In this regard, the "reciprocal" initiative: maybe our government economists still get to know Indian colleagues better - you see, they will advise something sensible ...
Author:
Photos used:
inforeactor.ru
59 comments
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  1. Sensatus
    Sensatus 16 February 2016 06: 27
    49
    Unfortunately, it now turns out that the more profitable for an impotent government, the more they put pressure on Russia, impose sanctions, etc. etc. You can attribute your own worthlessness to this.
    Generally speaking, I cannot find any other concept other than "treason to the Motherland" for this.
    1. en 45
      en 45 16 February 2016 08: 13
      21
      Generally speaking, I cannot find any other concept other than "treason to the Motherland"

      For those sitting in the Ministry of Finance, economic development, the concept of incompetence, inconsistency with the position held, etc. is more suitable. And "treason to the Motherland" is for those who admit it.
      1. Kostyar
        Kostyar 16 February 2016 09: 40
        12
        Everyone already knows about the "competence" and "independence" of our "economists" from the West. Putin, for example, is delighted with the economic bloc. What if he knows what we don't know?

        Or maybe He doesn’t know that ... that we all know ....?! The fact that even a five-year-old child can see how our government is treacherously defiantly destroying the country, and in the open, without hesitation !!!
        1. apostoll
          apostoll 16 February 2016 11: 59
          0
          Maybe Putin's enough to persuade? I am not a fan of his, especially his internal politics, but, dear ones, let's ask ourselves, what did “I” do to make life better in my yard, street, city? WHAT?
          He went to the polls, and then sat for a long time with friends with a beer-keeper and scolded the Central Election Commission, the administration and deputies?
          Which of you tried to ask for a report on the performance of your duties, for those who should serve you (for very poor money, by the way).
          Your spirit is enough only for a scribble in the comments ....
          I AM NOT CALLING FOR ANY ACTIVITY, ILLEGAL OR SEPARATIST, BUT IF YOU CANNOT ASK THOSE WHO ARE NEAR YOU ... OR RADIOUS "ABOVE YOU" ... IN ALL MEANINGS OF THIS EXPRESSION ... WHAT THE FUCK YOU DO ASK FROM THE PRESIDENT ????
          Are you waiting for the good uncle to come and do everything for you, for you?
          NOW YOU! Not capable, not rejoicing, stupid ...
          GOOD LUCK on the Internet .... pisyuki
          1. edeligor
            edeligor 16 February 2016 15: 28
            +6
            Quote: apostoll
            NOW YOU! Not capable, not rejoicing, stupid ...
            GOOD LUCK on the Internet .... pisyuki

            Pisyuk ... Cool, importing. Dear, of course, when you see your reflection in a glass, admire the golden halo above your head? Excuse us orphans, but the maydaunas do not live here. And it’s not for you to shut our mouths, Putin’s defender. Our president and we scold him, and speak your reproaches in a glass. The Apostle of the Chuv ...
          2. Victor Demchenko
            Victor Demchenko 16 February 2016 16: 37
            11
            I answer on points:
            1. The report of our deputies is NOT provided for by our law.
            2. But did he try to ask?
            and finally 3. I tried. the result - was taken out of the hall, as a rowdy and provocateur, like I'm trying to discredit the people's deputy.
            and extreme: what do you think, why the laws do not provide for recall of a deputy?
            and for pisyukov minus you, from the breadth of my soul!
      2. Zoldat_A
        Zoldat_A 16 February 2016 09: 52
        +6
        Quote: en 45
        For those sitting in the Ministry of Finance, economic development, the notion of incompetence, inconsistency with the position held, etc. is more suitable.

        ... the total revenue in the case of the sale of [diamonds] will be no more than 1,5 billion rubles. These are grades. And across the entire Russian economy, 1,5 billion rubles is clearly not the amount that looks “anti-crisis”


        So no one spoke about the economy. And for the award to the Ministry of Finance and for the Red Fox to say once again: "There is a LOT of money" - enough ... Humpback also counted that ~ 900 Nobel American money for one for betraying his country and selling Eastern Europe - fine ...
    2. max702
      max702 16 February 2016 13: 48
      11
      Someone introduce our Ministry of Finance to Indian economists
      It’s time to acquaint them with the firing squad, and not with economists! am
    3. stopkran
      stopkran 16 February 2016 14: 42
      +4
      In Russia, as you know, there were two troubles: fools and roads, but more recently, to add a third trouble, these are liberal fools indicating roads. )))
  2. lotar
    lotar 16 February 2016 06: 34
    21
    Any forecast in this situation shows the level of their ability to influence what is happening. And he almost does not admit that the ministry of finance, the central bank in my opinion are structures that should be reformed in the first place, and not the advanced Soviet education system. But since children studied abroad, gaining experience in the official sharing of state funds in modern realities, then changing something in themselves, something like amputation of the most important parts of the body. And the fact that this situation is beneficial for them is noticeably unarmed lyadom.Seychas begin the next stage of prihvatitsii that was not previously prihvatizirovana.Ne matter whose hands, but they themselves are not deprived.
  3. 2s5giacints
    2s5giacints 16 February 2016 06: 36
    18
    yeah, 1.5bn a lot ... about 50bn were thrown only to Russian Railways for capitalization. Moreover, we decided to privatize the remnants of Russian Railways. Better to cut this agency named after Vanga, you look and you didn’t have to sell diamonds ..
  4. slovak007
    slovak007 16 February 2016 06: 36
    17
    I agree with the author, the "specialists" of the Ministry of Finance do not stand up to any criticism. And at the expense of where they studied, most likely most of the retraining in the usa, unfortunately, there was a time when they boasted about it!
    1. asadov
      asadov 16 February 2016 09: 13
      +4
      And did they study at all?
  5. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 16 February 2016 06: 41
    +5
    And in the photo of the silhouettes, what is heaping ??? or shows at what height from the floor he learned to bounce?
    1. Scoun
      Scoun 16 February 2016 10: 47
      +1
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      And in the photo of the silhouettes, what is heaping ??? or shows at what height from the floor he learned to bounce?

      shows how many smoked before starting to "predict". (((
  6. samarin1969
    samarin1969 16 February 2016 06: 56
    10
    This lip-slaver lightning rod does not solve anything ... Until the business stops milking the budget, instead of filling it, the "oil spells" will continue ...
    P.S.Maneken would be, as the Minister of Finance no worse and cheaper ...
  7. Good cat
    Good cat 16 February 2016 07: 01
    +5
    The only thing that calms down, what these gentlemen say, has nothing to do with reality.
  8. 31rus
    31rus 16 February 2016 07: 01
    13
    Dear, I agree with the author completely, I’ll just add the elections soon and now it’s started, it’s already begun, so it’s worth noting that our many deputies, in the above privacy of EP, bear no less responsibility than the government, it was they who adopted these laws, it is their unanimity that allows this live to the government, no, I don’t advertise any party, for God's sake, but EP are also responsible for this whole mess, soon we will not be compared with India, but with Chile or Paraguay
    1. KVS
      KVS 16 February 2016 09: 21
      +1
      about the EP, the people say: "the party of crooks and thieves"
      1. dengy12
        dengy12 16 February 2016 09: 37
        -8
        Quote: KVS
        about the EP, the people say: "the party of crooks and thieves"

        and you probably heard enough of this while communicating with people in the swamp area?
        1. Victor Demchenko
          Victor Demchenko 16 February 2016 16: 43
          +2
          you know, I'm like a swamp area on the drum, and only "people" from it ... fool but he talked with sleds around the house after new payments for housing and communal services came ... so hardly anyone will vote for EP today. the truth and for whom to vote have not yet decided ... request such a misfortune.
  9. vfqjh
    vfqjh 16 February 2016 07: 11
    +8
    Another dance with a tambourine from our economic shamans. I wonder when they will begin to receive a salary (earned wages!) For deeds, and not for words ???
  10. Flinky
    Flinky 16 February 2016 07: 20
    +1
    After the election there will be a big purge in the government. In the meantime, let them carry garbage. There will be more dirt. The president needs good reason to throw Western-backed financiers into the trash.
    1. Matroskin
      Matroskin 16 February 2016 18: 39
      +2
      Yah? And hasn't Putin recently praised both Ulyukaev and Siluanov as fucking economists?
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. velikoros-xnumx
      velikoros-xnumx 16 February 2016 22: 05
      0
      Quote: Flinky
      After the election there will be a big purge in the government. In the meantime, let them carry garbage. There will be more dirt. The president needs good reason to throw Western-backed financiers into the trash.

      Why in almost two years of economic and political confrontation, the economic bloc of the government and its line did not undergo any changes. They are either not capable or do not want to solve the problems facing the country. Rather, both the first and second in one bottle.
      Why is there no Glazyev, Delyagin, Katasonov, Khazin in this bloc? Instead, Siluanov, Ulyukaev, Nabiullina, Dvorkovich negative
      1. carbine
        carbine 16 February 2016 22: 22
        +1
        Quote: velikoros-xnumx
        Why is there no Glazyev, Delyagin, Khazin in this bloc?

        Probably because these are all "theoreticians" wipers. In theory, they will still teach everyone how to live. But give them a broom and it's all gone.
        Quote: velikoros-xnumx
        Instead, Siluanov, Ulyukaev, Nabiullina, Dvorkovich

        Who are Siluanov, Ulyukaev, Nabiullina, Dvorkovich? What do they decide? What depends on them? It is strange in general that someone knows their names.
  11. Senior manager
    Senior manager 16 February 2016 07: 20
    +9
    Our economists are the misfortune that leads the state to decline. The market system can work effectively only in compliance with the laws of the economy. In the conditions of stupid accumulation of dough, when all means are good, speculation comes to the fore. Currently, market laws are used for the war against Russia. And it is very likely that the government in these conditions, acting as taught in the book, is unable to resist Western aggression on the economic front. All the steps of our financiers by the West have been calculated, answers have been prepared, leading to the decline of the state economy. Unfortunately, the top is now a pro-Western school of economics.
    1. coolvoldik
      coolvoldik 16 February 2016 13: 42
      +2

      I think Gubanova is worth listening to.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. stopkran
      stopkran 16 February 2016 14: 50
      +4
      The market does not produce anything, but is engaged in redistribution. Even the most stupid stall, unlike the "luminaries" of economic "science" liberalists from HSE, knows that without a business PLAN, there is nothing to do on the market. This is not to mention the fact that monopolies generally come to the market, as such, because they are the very “invisible hand of the market”.

      A market economy and a bluff about the public utility of market self-regulation.
      http://pr0zrenie.narod.ru/Information/02_09.htm
  12. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 16 February 2016 07: 47
    +6
    And why is it all measured in dollars, and not peels from an orange?
    And what are these articles for? Everyone already knows about the "competence" and "independence" of our "economists" from the West. Putin, for example, is delighted with the economic bloc. What if he knows what we don't know? laughing
  13. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 16 February 2016 08: 17
    +6
    The Ministry of Finance of Russia only deals with privatization and predictions about the death of the Russian economy if there is no next stage of privatization.
    These "specialists" cannot do anything else ...
  14. Skalpel
    Skalpel 16 February 2016 08: 28
    +8
    Or maybe these pid..sov, oh, excuse me - to introduce the "professionals" not to their Indian colleagues, but to the investigators of the Investigative Committee and the FSB? Only to really introduce, not for a comedy ?? eh ... dreams-dreams ...
    In the meantime, we have the fact that this pro-Western shushera, entrenched in power, has us ..: ((
    And they are satisfied with the GDP, since they are still allowed to carry such nonsense from ministerial chairs, and not from separate chambers of psychiatric hospitals ... But what? People have not yet taken to the streets! And for the consequences of their "reforms" - screams, grumbles, but answers with his ruble ...! And he is satisfied with the government block. They de - have done and are doing a great and correct job ..!
    And that we do not see the result does not mean at all that it is not. Only in whose pocket he settles, this result, that’s the question!
  15. Million
    Million 16 February 2016 08: 28
    +3
    maybe our government economists are nevertheless closer to get acquainted with their Indian colleagues - you see, they will advise something sensible

    They have enough advisers overseas ....
  16. Riv
    Riv 16 February 2016 08: 36
    +2
    Yeah, for an internship. Collect tea in the mountains, with love.
  17. viktortech
    viktortech 16 February 2016 08: 37
    -4
    Has anyone seen how they live in India? I don’t know exactly how much, but a lot of people live in poverty, live on the street and eat what they can. In India, only civil servants have a pension, and then about 500 rubles. according to our money. Thanks to the climate, they don’t have to spend a lot of money on heating, clearing snow from roads and other things related to it, about fossils, if you say that these are huge reserves of iron, manganese and other fossils. We have every second good foreign car, almost everyone is provided with a minimum set of products, we live not like in some countries (we will not call them), but still not bad. Zadolbalo is a liberal whining and comparisons like if my grandmother had ... then she would be a grandfather.
  18. Grbear
    Grbear 16 February 2016 08: 44
    15
    Government can be bonfired before the second coming. Until the system of oligarchic capitalism changes, there will be nothing good for Russia. But she herself will not change ...

    Elections are certainly good, but political technologies will not work for Russia. It is necessary to choose those who will pass laws:
    On the recall of the deputy;
    About immunity;
    On the personal responsibility of the recipient of state funds;
    On the confiscation of property of government officials and businessmen on the budget (no further than the seventh generation recourse ).
    The rest is already there or will follow. hi
  19. guzik007
    guzik007 16 February 2016 08: 58
    0
    In this regard, the "reciprocal" initiative: maybe our government economists still get to know Indian colleagues better - you see, they will advise something sensible ...
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------
    Minus to the author (mentally) God forbid, enti "comrades" with characteristic facial features will listen to advice. Then amba social packages, pensions, at least clean roads, heating in winter and other miserable remnants of social obligations to the population. And the profit received into the state budget will be plundered with joy as an unaccounted-for.
    How is Raikin? Yes, if I start to work, I’m doing this, my mother don’t grieve.
  20. Belousov
    Belousov 16 February 2016 09: 01
    +7
    Yes, as the Indians correctly noted, they do not live in the best way. But here you have to look at the dynamics. The number of people below the poverty line has decreased by 20%. It is not worth talking about how things are with us. Sberbank (Gref) wrote off the kaklam of 100 million evergreens, and it is by no means possible to restructure even a ruble mortgage. Yes, there were excuses that they did not forgive, but "exchanged for Ukrainian securities", but all normal people understand that the most valuable paper on the Ruin is now toilet paper. It's time to give Siluanov a glass ball, maybe then he will be more accurate in guessing the rate of oil prices. In general, it is not clear why they are being held, but the main thing is that Putin is satisfied with such "work" of the government. Think for yourself who and in whose interests "works" ...
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 16 February 2016 14: 39
      +2
      Quote: Belousov
      but the main thing is that Putin is satisfied with such "work" of the government. Think for yourself who and in whose interests "works" ...

      The trick is that the government is just a lightning rod and does not really solve anything without the Kremlin .. There is a feeling about the shadow "government headed by the Greatest .. And while Putin is the president, nothing new will happen.
    2. Victor Demchenko
      Victor Demchenko 16 February 2016 16: 53
      +2
      Quote: Belousov
      but point that Putin is satisfied with such "work" of the government.

      in my opinion and there is nothing to add. what
  21. bikeev1234
    bikeev1234 16 February 2016 09: 02
    +1
    When an adequate manager is appointed to this post (Siluanov), it may be enough to cut the national budget
  22. engineer
    engineer 16 February 2016 09: 13
    +3
    responsibility for the government in the Duma and the president. here it is necessary to ask from them at the elections. especially with the president. who does not want or cannot engage in domestic politics and economics.
  23. Algetxnumx
    Algetxnumx 16 February 2016 09: 14
    +1
    In this regard, a "reciprocal" initiative: maybe our government economists still get to know their Indian colleagues better - you see, they will advise something sensible .. It's time for all these Siluanovs, Ulyukayevs and company to start getting acquainted with Matrosskaya Tishina and Kresty.
  24. Kudrevkn
    Kudrevkn 16 February 2016 09: 23
    +4
    In vain, you guys, the Government (LADIES) are scolding: Medvedev at the United Russia congress expelled Siluanov and Livanov from the Armed Forces - he prepares like an experienced kebab maker "lambs" for "slaughter" ?! Before the elections to the State Duma he will throw like a bone to the crowd: "Eat, do not crap just!" Well, if the "shashlik" will be with Indian spices like "curry", then probably even piquant! But I would also add a garnish from Dvorkovich, Shuvalov and Skvortsova to this "dish" "fried bear meat"! Jellied meat from Golodets for a snack! It's a straightforward pun! Such a dish is likely to appear in the political kitchen of the Russian Federation soon! In the meantime, as in Krylov's fable "Quartet": "And you, friends, do not sit down, all are not suitable for musicians"!
  25. A-Sim
    A-Sim 16 February 2016 09: 28
    +1
    Did the author stop watching TV?
    How else to explain his doubts and suspicions?
  26. obana
    obana 16 February 2016 09: 31
    +3
    Economic gurus do not even predict, but, as they themselves say, "calculate" the situation right up to 2030. In 2012, it was not possible to calculate for 2013, in 2013 - for 2014, etc., but then, you know, right up to 2030 - bang and you're done! .. Did the Ministry of Finance have new arithmometers?

    No, everything is simpler: soaring the brains of the average man, they say, now you have to tolerate, tighten your belts, but then, in 2030-40-50 - 2100, ka-a-a-ak Russia will heal, heal. In order to continue to be able to rob, explaining this by sanctions, which were initially introduced, in fact, against the Russian oligarchs, but these individuals were not affected by the sanctions. Only for some reason, all these forecasters, rulers, and Putin’s entourage, led by himself, do not now want to tolerate and tighten their belts either.

    The first initiative, with which Anton Siluanov's department comes out against the background of the publication of an economic forecast (up to 2030), is related to the "necessity" of selling diamonds from Gokhran. The sales of diamonds located in Gokhran in the auction mode are scheduled for February 29 and March 10. Izvestia reports that as part of the "crisis sale" in 2016, the Ministry of Finance plans to get rid of 167,5 thousand carats of precious stones. To compare with something: for the entire 2015, about 9 thousand carats of diamonds were sold by Gokhran.

    What do you want? This is the whole trick of Putin's economy - the sale of raw materials, more rulers are not capable of anything. And, yes, they are still capable of crushing their people.
    In the appendage and about Putin’s science, read more:
    http://www.interfax.ru/russia/490835
    President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vladimir Fortov said that Russia is significantly behind in the scientific field, dropping to the level of Iran, and the scientific strategies introduced in the Russian Federation did not greatly improve the situation.


    Or is the forecast for 1% growth per year - is it a kind of attitude on our own to do nothing in the near future?

    Here again, everything is simple: it will be easy to show 1% of economic growth on a PAPER, fitted there, adjusted it, calculated in rubles, voila, where there was a real decline, there is 1% growth on a piece of paper. But 10-15% growth on paper is already difficult to show, the fraud will be clearly visible.
  27. Nix1986
    Nix1986 16 February 2016 09: 42
    +4
    In general, it should be ashamed of forecasts until 2030, to make a forecast for 15 years is to show your lack of professionalism, here for 3 years the forecast is difficult, a lot of variables affect it, which also cannot be calculated by 100%. Wanga's prediction will be more accurate than this prediction. If you listen to some specialists from IBM or other offices at the peak of progress, then the development of the next 2 decades will be influenced by the result of work on such technologies as: 1) a quantum computer - there is some progress, i.e. Of course, it is still necessary to develop to an industrial design, but the fact that there is is no longer the level of theoretical developments. 2) neural networks - here progress is taking leaps and bounds 3) development of crispr cas 9 technology, we already have several targeted genetics preparations, the most interesting is ahead 4) 3D printing. In general, if you believe the forecasts from IBM, then if all these technologies continue to develop and turn into success, then the era of singularity will begin in 2025. This is the forecast at the level of "more, less". And we are given specific figures right up to 2030. Fairy tale and nothing more.
    1. gladcu2
      gladcu2 16 February 2016 21: 02
      +1
      nix

      They promised to put a new engine on WoT.

      I have the right to irony. Similar reports, an international thing. Everyone has the same thing.
      1. Nix1986
        Nix1986 17 February 2016 09: 13
        0
        And what is the irony here ?! My post was to the fact that now, in a rapidly changing world, forecasts for long-term scenarios, up to absolute numbers, are unworkable. You can simply outline the general trend of the situation, no more. And most importantly, what we do not have is an efficiently working body responsible for economic development. If someone poorly is responsible for budget administration, then there is no development planning. And we all know the common truth, if you go without knowing where, then you will find yourself not where you want.
  28. was-witek
    was-witek 16 February 2016 09: 46
    +4
    Our entire economic block of the Government cannot cope with the work. It's time to drive in the neck with a lawyer who also does not understand a damn thing in the economy. The only thing they can do is to state the facts and make predictions that never come true. It should be asked, how many new modern enterprises were put into operation when they were in power, how did the people's standard of living improve ??? And everything immediately becomes clear. It surprises our economic, so-called, specialists led by Ulyukaevy and Siluanov. The whole linkage of the economy comes from the calculation of oil prices. In this case, even an illiterate specialist in economics can calculate all possible options using Pupkini arithmetic. And until when will they sit there ????
  29. Senior manager
    Senior manager 16 February 2016 10: 06
    +3
    The Prime Minister is the manager of the old, the manager is the manager. Our economy, in my opinion, is a large economy and at this stage it should be managed by a business executive and, in his backstroke, a manager building an economic system, but by no means a lawyer. A clean manager may be needed when the management system is rebuilt. I believe that this is one of the reasons for the BAD government’s work, the second reason is the politicized nature of the government, which forces decisions to be made under pressure from the political situation. And in no case do not carry out reforms, only build.
  30. Vadim237
    Vadim237 16 February 2016 10: 33
    -5
    The forecast for 15 years - something the guys kinda waved coolly - the reality will be completely different - most likely the economy will go up sharply in 4 years.
  31. iuris
    iuris 16 February 2016 10: 33
    +1
    The topic itself is five !!! Not to mention the article. And the situation is such that citizens buy two TVs and more)))) if you collect all the extra tellys and put their value into the economy, then we are ahead of the rest !!!
  32. Hort
    Hort 16 February 2016 11: 35
    +2
    the Ministry of Finance should not be introduced to the Indians, but a tour of the former Stalinist camps should be conducted
  33. Captain45
    Captain45 16 February 2016 11: 42
    0
    I don’t even want to talk about the “ekonomitsky bloc” of the Government and even discuss it. Complete ... eccentrics. So when any of them, Siluyans, na..biullina or anyone else will explain to me exactly and clearly why the currency of the country, which is production and export of oil and gas (the Saudis have already overtaken), metal (50% of world platinum production, 30% of nickel-copper production), i.e. Russia is three times cheaper than the country's currency, in which industrial production has already fallen by 40%, and according to other sources, 60%, there are no reserves of mineral resources (even lard is being brought from Poland), there is a war in the country, I am talking about Ukraine, then I will believe these "economists". U.r.o.d., in a word, ugh on them am
  34. Stalnov I.P.
    Stalnov I.P. 16 February 2016 11: 43
    +2
    We can say bluntly, the born crawl cannot fly, and this applies to all power, starting from the very top ending with rotten eggs of the government - in addition to the economic block, in addition, two more pipettes from the Central Bank. For more than twenty years of history, they could not create anything clever, but here such a leap in strategic planning, though the leap itself turned out to be a fall from its kindred. And now let's compare, LENIN-NEP by 1926 the country regained its first place in the supply of grain to the world market, after 6 years from the start of the project and four years after the end of the Civil War (1922), in some five-year periods, Stalin's GDP growth amounted to 30% per year. CONCLUSION - THE GREATNESS OF ONE and the squalor of others. Enlightenment in this board and the mess is not visible.
  35. runway
    runway 16 February 2016 12: 17
    +3
    "Don't shoot the pianist" .....
    Siluanov is an official like everyone else. What the chief tells him, he does. He says to "cancel" someone's debts, he fulfills, but he says "allocate!" - he also cannot refuse. If it were otherwise, the head of the Ministry of Finance would have been different.
    Our financial planning looks very strange - the Budget of the Russian Federation. From which theft to its third is possible! component .... Hundreds of billions of unused funds and hundreds of billions of misused .... This is reported to the head of the Accounts Chamber. The prosecutor’s office and the Investigative Committee are busy on behalf of the main others - the search for attackers with a cake on Kasyanov. And although there were a lot of witnesses and everything was recorded on the video, it’s not a fact that they will find it - VERTICAL, eprst .... Let this Kasyanov say thanks for not being shot there. So what if I didn’t walk on the bridge .... It’s easy here.
    So, dear author, it’s not in the models (Indian, Tokyo, Singaporean ....) the point is - THERE IS NOT NECESSARY TO STEAL from the budget! And so, as those who are at the feeder, can no longer refuse this, we must end them. IMHO.
  36. iouris
    iouris 16 February 2016 12: 24
    +3
    Not economists need to be changed, but the whole system.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 16 February 2016 18: 30
      0
      Sorry, change for what - as the market system was, so it will be and you will not change anything in it.
  37. zllllo
    zllllo 16 February 2016 12: 37
    +1
    When a simple product has. Father could not understand him And he gave land as collateral.
    1. stopkran
      stopkran 16 February 2016 14: 59
      +1
      "And there was a deep economy,
      That is, he knew how to judge
      As the state grows rich,
      And what lives, and why
      He does not need gold,
      When a simple product has. "

      A.S. Pushkin, "Eugene Onegin"

      Economic language. Efimov
      http://pr0zrenie.narod.ru/Information/02_02.htm
  38. Romanenko
    Romanenko 16 February 2016 12: 59
    0
    The issues of economic management efficiency have always worried and worried Russia, a lot of proposals are being made, both reasonable and simple from the ceiling and with numbers, and so with the cries of URRRAAA .... Only one trouble, somehow adopting a scheme clearly dictated from the outside, our financial geniuses follow it without deviating a millimeter from the chosen path. What is it from? Yes, two options for an answer immediately emerge - first, there are no brains, and it is better to march as they said than to try to do something wrong, and then become extreme and be pushed away from the trough, the second - as they said, do it, since they pay for this, it means that it is necessary to fulfill, however, I hope, the second vaniant is not massive, it looks like a betrayal.
    The current governing structure so far shows mainly its small, this is putting it mildly, efficiency, because it basically follows the principles of fiscal filling of the budget by hook or by crook on the principle "so that cows give more milk and eat less, they need to be milked more often and feed less. .. "As long as such principles are used, there will be no decent growth rates.
  39. polo
    polo 16 February 2016 14: 26
    +4
    German Gref injected truth serum wassat
  40. 16112014nk
    16112014nk 16 February 2016 14: 38
    +3
    Siluanov and Ulyukaev still work as assistants to US citizens. For which the interests of the United States are always and everywhere, and not Russia. Question Gene. prosecutors and the FSB - and on what basis? request
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 16 February 2016 18: 31
      0
      What are some US citizens working for Siluanov and Ulyukaev?
  41. bumbarash
    bumbarash 16 February 2016 15: 37
    0
    The last two years have been just a stream of Indian tourists, who, although they are distinguished by some cuddles, spend money. Ours found a key to the soul of the Indians and cut them well)) It is clear that the Indians began to live richer. No wonder the Japanese deduced the formula that 80% of success and development depends on leaders, and only 20% of everything else.
  42. edeligor
    edeligor 16 February 2016 15: 55
    +3
    Excuse me, I am far from a capitalist economy. I can only say that it infuriates me in our government. This is a deception, a deception of everyone and everything. They serve only large capital (0,5% of the country's population), and save the rest on raising the retirement age, new excise taxes, and massive reductions everywhere! And with all this, victorious reports!
    I have said before and now I repeat that no Americans and Europeans will do worse for our country than these Kudrino kaevs and other naebullins! All the negativity to the president comes from these talents, and if with his knowledge, then it’s SHVAH !!!
  43. Whowhy
    Whowhy 16 February 2016 16: 44
    +1
    But I think that all these dances of the dollar and the ruble are a carefully planned action of our Ministry of Finance (naturally, with the knowledge of the GDP), aimed at enriching a certain group of people in power through speculation with the currency and robbing the population of Russia. It already happened, but now they decided to extend the default and cover it with sanctions and oil prices, plus escalating military hysteria in order to switch the electorate’s thoughts to an external enemy.
    Based on analogies, we can assume that in the summer the ruble will fall to about 120 rubles. per dollar, and then somewhere in the fall they will "be able to win back" it to about 95r. for the dollar. And he will remain at this level for a very long time.
  44. Victor Demchenko
    Victor Demchenko 16 February 2016 17: 11
    +1
    Quote: edeligor
    All the negativity to the president comes from these talents, and if with his knowledge, then it’s a matter of SHVAH !!!

    you know, but watching the latest developments in the country for some reason I come to this conclusion
    1. edeligor
      edeligor 16 February 2016 18: 07
      0
      Brother agrees. And from this "diathesis" all over the body ...
  45. Vadim237
    Vadim237 16 February 2016 18: 34
    0
    How pleasant it is to realize that your business will continue to work, regardless of the Ministry of Finance predictions and forecasters.
  46. Viktortopwar
    Viktortopwar 16 February 2016 18: 43
    +2
    These losers have already gotten all of them from the Ministry of Forecasts. The Ministry of Finance of Russia will soon become the same brand as the "British scientists"!
  47. realist
    realist 16 February 2016 20: 27
    +1
    Yes, where does India! Adam Smith said everything about the economy how many years ago? cheap loans, programs for the development of real production, low taxes, and a constant domestic policy for at least 20 years, and everything will be fine! but apparently not everyone needs the Central Bank rate how much today?
    1. Former battalion commander
      Former battalion commander 16 February 2016 23: 34
      +1
      Adam Smith? And then how to explain the rate of development of the USSR? There are no "cheap loans", "low taxes" and the policy changed often? It's all about the competence of the FARMER MANAGEMENT, and the current Russian one is clearly not drawn to this ... So the country is tumbling over the tree stump ...
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  48. dmb91
    dmb91 16 February 2016 23: 06
    +1
    (USA-IMF-consulting campaigns) -CB RF-RF Ministry of Finance - Russia -Colony USA, it's time to change the basic law!
  49. Former battalion commander
    Former battalion commander 16 February 2016 23: 29
    +3
    What to blame stupidity for being stupid? Unpromising! It is necessary to REALLY CHANGE all this fraternity! Predicted for a year! Lived a year, looked - work came true, work more than 10% wrong, sorry and do not blame me - ADDITION! Predict somewhere else. But the personnel policy of the current Russian leadership does not suggest the dismissal or even censure of their proteges! And because of this, the dominance of incompetence at all levels of government, theft, irresponsibility, and foolishness ... So that the criticism in the article, although justified, is directed IN the VOID of the Russian government. I think this state of affairs is a direct consequence of the inability to work with the staff of the president of the Russian Federation. The fish rots from the head ...