Let's take a little look at history.
World War I
Russia was in a state of economic growth, but one that really instilled fear in all "partners." There was no such word then, but the essence was. It hasn't changed much in 100 years. As, however, and "partners" who tried at any cost to remove Russia to the margins of world politics and economics.
Russia was absolutely not ready for war. Moreover, if by the beginning of the Second World War the USSR would have approached to the same degree of readiness, then we would hardly have written, and you read it all. But the heroism and dedication of Russian soldiers, as well as the real literacy and skills of Russian military leaders like Samsonov, Brusilov, Denikin, Kolchak, Kornilov, Alekseev, allowed us to enter the war on equal terms and win many glorious victories. Yes, there were also Vlasov-Rennenkampfas, but where in our history without them.
Of course, the uniqueness of the outcome for Russia was that, being in alliance with the winners, Russia lost to the loser. And she lost not only a huge part of her territory, but also weight on the world stage. But for that, thanks to comrades Leib Bronstein (Trotsky) and Vladimir Ulyanov (Lenin).
The Second World War
A strange coincidence, but by the beginning of World War II, the Soviet Union also approached the rise. By this time, Joseph Vissarionovich had already successfully pitted all the "old Bolsheviks" and engaged in the industrialization of the country. Successfully engaged.
At least by 1939, the Red Army was armed with a lot of what was not in the Russian army. For instance, Tanks in general, and domestic aircraft. Good or not - the third thing, the fact that Stalin and his comrades were able to organize the release of what they then beat everyone in the Great Patriotic War, is undeniable.
Was the Union ready for war? Today we can definitely say no. Here we have personnel shortages caused by the army cleaning (to a greater extent) and repressions (to a lesser extent), and retooling with new models of equipment and many other points that were discussed here more than once.
But were our opponents ready? It is difficult to say, but we believe that the German army was superior to the Soviet one only in terms of personnel. The rest - sorry, in the films, of course, show "Tigers" near Smolensk, but people who know that the bulk of German "tank armadas" were T-2 and T-3, and trophies of French and Czechoslovak production.
But the finale is well known. Germany was ready for a tactical operation, albeit a large scale, called "Blitzkrieg", but it was not enough for long military operations. And in a strategic confrontation, the Soviet Union was stronger.
The Third World War
Is Russia today on the rise comparable with 1914 or 1941 for years? It is doubtful, to be honest. Sanctions, crisis, import substitution ... A difficult question, but no more than yes.
On the readiness of our army, too, different opinions. As the state of the various components of our armed forces.
Fleet. Probably none of the components of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation was in such a severe crisis. And continues to be. Yes, work is underway, the fleet receives new warships, but the base still consists of veterans of the Soviet Navy, whatever one may say. And to say that in the main theaters our fleet is capable of long-term actions of a large-scale nature ... well, for this you have to be too optimistic. Weaken the enemy - yes. Defensive actions are quite. Offensive - more than doubtful. This is especially true of the Pacific.
Aviation. This is probably comparable to 1941. New planes arrive, they are really good and competitive, even, most likely, more than enough. But their depressing quantity is still depressing. I would like more. But if anything, the main blow to take the "old people" Su-27, MiG-29, MiG-31. Let it be modernized. They are comforted by a fairly large number. And we also have few new attack helicopters.
Air defense. Here we can say that we are still ahead of the rest. This air defense to date, no one else in the area. And this is good news. Especially when C-300 is replaced by C-500, and C2 Armor is added. And they will launch two more Voronezh-DM stations. To become quieter in my heart.
Ground troops. About the same as in aviation. Yes, last year we were shown a lot of new equipment samples. And samples of good technology. But this does not mean that all of her tomorrow will be in the army. It does not turn out. It is one thing to “pile” several Kurgans for the parade, and quite another thing is to launch them into a series. Judging by what is happening at the Kurgan Mechanical Plant, God forbid that everything could work through 5 over the years.
So the same T-72 and T-90, but with the letters after the numbers, will make up our strike base. That is, upgraded to the state of "good technology", but not in the category of "miracleweapon".
We specifically kept silent about the missile systems. About them later. As well as not considering the use of nuclear weapons. Yes, many of our readers are eager to press the red button, “and the whole world is in dust,” but we, being reasonable people and leaving school years far behind, understand that no one is going to use nuclear weapons. For now at least.
What do we have in terms of personnel? Perhaps a little better than the 22.06.1941. A little better is in terms of the fact that there are no commanders in the higher echelons of yesterday's company and commanders. Already as well. Below - worse. Unfortunately, the turnover of personnel among the middle officers is great. Yes, there is a tendency to improvement, but again it takes time to fully stabilize.
But with regards to the very bottom, even the authors had different opinions. We did not come to the same denominator, which is still worse: the year of training a soldier, albeit in a real way, or two, of which at least a quarter or even half of the time the soldier did what the devil knows. Well, as in the USSR.
As it was in the main number of parts of the Armed Forces of the USSR, both knew firsthand. They took a direct part, so to speak. Is it better today? On the one hand, it is better, on the other - here we have agreed on one point - it is not enough a year to train a professional fighter.
The year is a full-fledged "private, partially prepared." Yes, AK-74, SVD, PC-RPK, RPG-7, Fagot, Metis, Contest. Familiar to all, "native" names. And it's still today. Tomorrow - “Attack”, “Cornet”, new models of small arms - this is all not for a deadline. Anyway.
On the whole, though, our armaments are basically still there, in the late nineties, but in fact the period of collapse has passed. There is a creation. If we are given the opportunity to complete rearmament, then talk about the war will most likely subside. No - the 22.06.1941 option is still in the air.
However, who said that our potential adversaries are better than us?
Yes, it is impossible to say that we are ready to participate in this Third World. But our potential adversaries, and probably we should not hide the fact that this is the United States, NATO and Japan, are even less prepared.
It’s ridiculous to talk about NATO troops who are ready for something serious, if you don’t mean the US Army. Yes, the American army is a very serious force. And the fleet? And the fleet. All the rest of NATO is nothing more than cannon fodder that the Americans will chase ahead of themselves. Well, the Turks still, but about them below.
Moreover, we note that the idea of hostilities on the territory of Europe will not enter into one Euroheader. Two lessons were enough to realize the simple truth - they will demolish everything. Who is the third or fourth question, but they remember the example of Yugoslavia there. And this, we note, the showdown was of a local character, without Russians. And it was more than enough to restore everything for so many years. And with our participation, it is quite predictable that the show will be saturated with special effects that no other European lawyer will be happy to see. The ending is all the more famous. The whole world is in dust.
And the Americans do not know how, and do not want to fight on their territory. They, too, would be far away from aircraft carriers and axes. And here begins the most interesting.
No one wants military action on their territory. Yes, perhaps, many would like to once again try to make war in Russia. However, there is a problem. With a territory. Not only is big, how to carry everything you need today for a full-fledged war? Yes, and taking into account that it will be difficult to do?
So the possibility of an attack on us, we somehow generally set aside.
Probably in the West as well think. So you have to look.
We must look for an idiot who is not against unleashing on the adjacent territory if not a world war, that a regional disgrace has been found. Looking for a long time, but here - Recep Erdogan. With all that it implies. And the place is wow, and there is a reason. But the car obviously reduces turns.
Not from Turkey, no. It's all on the script, cheerfully bitten bit, a military ass with a roar goes on the attack on the Kurds. From the crowd and the audience from time to time there are shouts "Right now, we will come too!" ... and while silence. Nobody goes beyond words.
And why not?
Because fools are less and less in the world. And the smart ones are beginning to understand that the test for ferro content of Putin’s testicles may well end up with broken dishes in the kitchen. In his, we note the kitchen. And its own kitchen - even if Erdogan is three times there, he will be right - she has her own in Germany and in other countries too.
Therefore, apparently, the American aircraft carriers loose around anywhere, just not in the waters near Syria. Meaning? If the war with the Papuans, which are easy to roll out with the help of ship-borne aviation, and then launch the armored rifle on the Abrams is a completely run-in scenario.
But who wants to look for adventure, when there are already C-400, which really give a chance to have time to press the button of the catapult? And the plus is still not caught up with the MiG-21 or 23, but quite modern planes that can do any F?
Not an American script, you know?
And not European. It's one thing to hang out in Afghanistan or Iraq behind the backs of the Americans, even Ukrainian warriors were honored to do that, but this is completely different.
So you can hear from NATO, which without the US, some recommendations on the topic "Recep, you, of course, are ours, but you would understand yourself." From sin away. And somehow, besides the already mentioned army of Ukraine, which is the fifth in Europe, no one else shouted joyful cries on the topic "Right now we are piling on everyone!" Brains, by and large, work fine.
There is nobody to fight in Europe.
The situation in Syria is very, very difficult. And where to go, while predicting is not easy. But so far only one thing is clearly visible: about the third, and even more so, the fourth world war, it’s too early to shout. You can talk, you can argue. Scream early.
What Erdogan is doing now is, of course, unpleasant and disturbing. And for our in Syria restless. But no one promised a walk on the Papuans in the American style. Of course, it would be nice, but that did not happen. It turned out the enemy behind. But this is not a world war.
Yes, we are not ready for large-scale actions in the rank of a world war. But our "partners", more precisely, potential adversaries, are not ready even more than we are. What really show the latest political events.