Military Review

Putin in Syria: judoist from geopolitics (Le Figaro, France)

66



Air strikes continue in Syria, and the Russian president managed to become a key player, shedding light on the inconsistency of the West

Most media regularly blame Russia for making the “rebels” priority goals, not IS, and indiscriminately targeting militants and civilians. In the evening issue News on France2 on February 4 showed a report on the surgical accuracy of the attacks of the international coalition against the IS ... only these shots turned out to be shots of Russian bombing, which had previously been published on the website of the country's Ministry of Defense. Although this mistake seems anecdotal, it sheds light on misconceptions in the strategy of the West in the Middle East, which today is becoming a hostage to the dangerous alliance of Turkey’s increasingly pronounced Islamism Erdogan with the Gulf powers. The double game of the latter is now on public display, pressing the West against the wall.

As an experienced judoist, Vladimir Putin prefers to use the weaknesses of his opponents to achieve the goal with the least expenditure of energy. Having enlisted Iran’s military aid and China’s diplomatic support, the Russian president is trying to preserve the regime of Bashar al-Assad so that he becomes the de facto last stronghold against the Islamic state. But that's not all. In the face of confrontation between the Turks and the Kurds (both are sworn enemies of each other, but at the same time allies of the West), Vladimir Putin makes the peshmerga, weary of this state of affairs, turn to Moscow. Like in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is an excellent tactician who relies on strong and cautious military alliances to strengthen positions in international negotiations. He is not even afraid to, in fact, cross them out, if he reads that he can achieve more, which is perfectly illustrated by the current meeting in Geneva. At the same time, Putin’s strategy is defensive in the face of American policy toward Moscow, which has only become tougher since 1991.

Make of Assad's bulwark against the IG

The ongoing battle for Aleppo, of course, is a turning point in the Syrian crisis, as well as an illustration of the Russian approach to intervention and negotiations. Despite 5 Russian hits aviation over the last four months of last year, in the west, until recently, this operation was considered ineffective. So, on November 19, Jane's Terrorism & Insurgency noted, not without irony, that the Bashar al-Assad regime had regained only 0,4% of the country's territory since the beginning of Russian intervention.

Anyway, the situation, apparently, has changed dramatically over the past month, and since last week the course of events has gathered a dizzying turn. So, from 1 to 3 February, Russian bombers set a record for 875 strikes for 237 sorties. The strikes were concentrated in the territory from the city of Aleppo to the Turkish border so as to block the supply channels created by Ankara, weapons, money and oil. The Syrian army of Bashar al-Assad, with the support of Iranian forces, as well as Shiite troops from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan, was able to encircle Aleppo from the north, thereby finally blocking one of the roads that provided the connection between the rebels and Turkey. For them, Aleppo becomes a “boiler” from which it is impossible to escape.

The polemologist Karolin Galakteros rightly notes the surprising similarity between the “cauldrons” in Aleppo and Debaltseve, where the Ukrainian army was a year ago: the “Second cauldron” is formed in Syria in an almost identical sequence (military successes to put pressure on partners before political negotiations). Russian tactics are painfully reminiscent of the one that was used in Ukraine. ” Only negotiations are now taking place not in Minsk, but in Geneva. Against the backdrop of a dramatic change in the balance of military forces in Syria, UN Special Representative Secretary General Staffan de Mistura had no choice but to postpone the negotiations for the end of February, which were scheduled for January 31. Russia and the Syrian regime intend to use all their weight in the negotiations in order to force the Sunni powers and the West to adopt a new state of affairs. For Ankara, Riyadh and Washington such a move of Moscow has become a real slap in the face.

After all, what can Western countries do? Expand aid to rebels supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar? At a minimum, this would mean a too serious political risk, because (again) would show the public that there are no “moderate” rebels, and that only Islamist groups are fighting the regime under the leadership of Jabhat al-Nusra, that is, the local Al Qaeda. As a maximum, this would be fraught with the risk of direct intervention by Turkey (in Russia there are suspicions on this score) or Saudi Arabia (she has already spoken of her readiness to send ground troops as part of an international coalition). In this perspective, an escalation is not excluded: the indirect conflict of Sunni and Shiite powers that is currently being waged in Syria, Iraq and Yemen could have crossed the dangerous red line.

The Kurds in the Russian orbit

Vladimir Putin is increasingly based not only on Damascus, and the Syrian Kurds, supplying them with weapons, including RPG-7. His interest in the Kurds there are just two reasons.

First of all, the Kurds enjoy Damascus to Aleppo operations for its own offensive against rebel positions. They tend to move to the east to form a united Kurdish zone from Afrin to Cobán (this city has become famous during the siege of the Islamic State), which borders with Iraqi Kurdistan.

Further, Russian weapons allow the Kurds to quietly but actively support the Kurdistan Workers' Party in Turkey, which allows Moscow to exert direct pressure on Ankara. The Kurdish map gives Vladimir Putin the opportunity to create a kind of layer between the Assad and Erdogan regimes, as well as to emphasize the contradictory position of the Western states, and above all the United States, who have such evil enemies as Turks and Kurds in their allies. Their rivalry complicates the formation of the Syrian opposition at the Geneva talks, because Ankara is categorically against the Kurds' presence on them. But how can you not let them go to the negotiating table, if they, unlike Turkey, are heroically fighting the Islamic state? The US and Europe are literally paralyzed by the inconsistency of their game of alliances.

Moscow puts the "red lines" in front of Washington

The tactical victory of Vladimir Putin in Syria (based on the Ukrainian experience) is all the more impressive because Russia is now weakened by the economic crisis. And although the president expected to restore growth after 2015, a further drop in oil prices does not bode well. Despite the often sounding statements, the share of hydrocarbons in Russia's GDP is not that high (10-15%). At the same time, they play a big role in the formation of the budget (40%). Thus, Putin was forced to cut government spending, which is becoming a heavy blow to domestic demand, which is a traditional trump card for Russia. The country relied on rich energy resources for a long time, but now it faces difficulties in financing the economy, which further exacerbates Western financial sanctions. While maintaining low oil prices and the absence of structural reforms (primarily in the banking system), Vladimir Putin's regime will have to forget about high growth rates.

Further, although the operation in Syria is that the costs do not seem unfeasible for Moscow, this does not negate the issue of future intervention and long-term prospects of Russia in the Middle East. Vladimir Putin is peculiar to ultra-realistic vision of international relations, but it is the same whether it is a good strategy as well as tactics? This is the question put before a Western observers after the Ukrainian events, noting that with the help of clever maneuvers, he eventually acquired Crimea, but finally lost to Ukraine.

In Putin's strategy, the Syrian conflict can be viewed as a direct continuation of the Ukrainian one. Moscow wants to draw the "red lines" that the US (and NATO) are not allowed to overstep. In this regard, Vladimir Putin is mostly in defensive positions, which is costly for Moscow in the long run regarding military spending. Incidentally, this may be the strategy of Washington: to weaken Russia by an arms race, which it cannot afford. In the past, it has already undermined the strength of the USSR.

Unfortunately, the Americans, in spite of the end of the Cold War, did not move away from the doctrine of "deterrence", which was formed in 1947 by President Truman and was inspired by the works of historian and political scientist George Kennan. Despite the peaceful collapse of the USSR, the Americans were pushing the borders of NATO to the Russian borders without end, although there was no Warsaw Pact for a long time.

Such an eagerness to continue the Cold War was recently analyzed by the American historian Stephen Cohen. In the opinion of this proponent of detente between the two blocs, “America’s national security must rest on Moscow. This means that the US president needs a partner in the Kremlin. This was true in the Soviet Union and remains to this day. ” Cohen does not hide his pessimism: Americans in dangerous arrogance do not recognize the Russians the right to draw the "red lines", although in Soviet times, these lines existed. The historian cites three examples of this US position: NATO expansion, unwillingness to negotiate a European missile defense (and it threatens the balance of nuclear deterrence), the use of "soft power" for "regime change" in Russia and neighboring states.

Vladimir Putin's strategy in Syria can be considered as part of the American deterrent. US stubbornly refuse to notice that the Berlin Wall collapsed long ago. In addition, the new walls may appear today, only this time not in Berlin but in Tbilisi, Kiev and Damascus. Adhering to a defensive position, building on the outstanding tactical talent, the Russian president seeks to draw a red line in Syria, where the only naval base abroad in Moscow, necessary for sustainable presence in the Mediterranean region.

Europe and first of all France need to say “no” to this reincarnation of the Soviet-American confrontation and remind Moscow and Washington that “Russia is a European power,” according to Didrot. But this would require a lot of “valor”, as our future foreign minister said.
Author:
Originator:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/vox/monde/2016/02/10/31002-20160210ARTFIG00338-poutine-en-syrie-le-judoka-de-la-geopolitique.php
66 comments
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  1. avvg
    avvg 13 February 2016 12: 33
    11
    The actions of Russia (the Russian military) in Syria -This is our asymmetric (not standard, original) response to the West.
    1. Urals
      Urals 13 February 2016 12: 39
      15
      Vladimir Putin is increasingly relying not only on Damascus, but also on Syrian Kurds

      That's right ..! Found a pain point ...
      And took the gills ..!
      1. cniza
        cniza 13 February 2016 12: 59
        14
        The less we pay attention to their howl and make our policy, the more accommodating and accommodating the West and the United States will be, they will not go anywhere.
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. NIKNN
        NIKNN 13 February 2016 12: 59
        +7
        Here the choice is small, either support the Kurds, or bring down Erdogan ... lol
        1. g1v2
          g1v2 13 February 2016 13: 10
          +3
          Or help the Kurds and Turks weaken each other until Assad gained strength. Realpolitik. request
        2. EvgNik
          EvgNik 13 February 2016 13: 23
          0
          Quote: NIKNN
          Here the choice is small

          Both. At the same time.
        3. tol100v
          tol100v 13 February 2016 15: 24
          +1
          Quote: NIKNN
          Here the choice is small, either support the Kurds, or bring down Erdogan ...

          FOR DISCHARGE: I will drink and I will not give up smoking!
    2. ECT
      ECT 13 February 2016 14: 18
      +2
      God grant our President another 100 years edit
      1. PHANTOM-AS
        PHANTOM-AS 13 February 2016 15: 42
        0
        Tipun to your tongue laughing
        And what will he do without Dmitry Anatolich, Gref, Chubais, Surkov, Dvorkovich, Rothgner, Kovalchuk? then who will blame everything? belay
        1. Dry_T-50
          Dry_T-50 14 February 2016 15: 19
          0
          Quote: PHANTOM-AS
          And what will he do without Dmitry Anatolich, Gref, Chubais, Surkov, Dvorkovich, Rothgner, Kovalchuk? then who will blame everything?

          On those who managed to miss the voucher in 90-x. In addition, they will bring down the case
  2. AdekvatNICK
    AdekvatNICK 13 February 2016 12: 34
    +2
    Unfortunately, economically they gave slack even when the Donbass began. Now Syria is still. And the situation in the economy against the backdrop of falling oil has become generally depressing. God forbid, Americans somewhere else will arrange another adventure, I’m afraid we just won’t be able to take out the conflict.
    1. midivan
      midivan 13 February 2016 12: 42
      +4
      only on photo? you still have to guess a lot of riddles and your flag including smile and with every guess they will become more and more dull yes
    2. PHANTOM-AS
      PHANTOM-AS 13 February 2016 16: 10
      0
      Quote: AdekvatNICK
      then I’m afraid we just won’t take out the confrontation with money.

      whose will not take out?
      last year, 170 lords were taken to support the legs of world imperialism, oh partners, that is.
      And in this we will take out, we will tighten the belts, but we will take out, and for the future too.
      A plan is a plan. yes
  3. barclay
    barclay 13 February 2016 12: 34
    20
    Different approaches - different results.
    1. lysyj bob
      lysyj bob 13 February 2016 12: 51
      19
      I have long noticed a parallel between the black belt in judo and the way to conduct foreign policy. VV turns the enemy, waits, gives him a mistake, and using his mistake, throws. Wise man, respect. That would be the same with internal enemies ...
      1. gavrosh.ru
        gavrosh.ru 14 February 2016 03: 42
        0
        if only he would have had internal enemies (the population, that is, you and I, do not count naturally)
  4. dr.star75
    dr.star75 13 February 2016 12: 41
    12
    Russia is not European, but a WORLD power!
  5. gray_angel
    gray_angel 13 February 2016 12: 42
    +6
    Europe and, above all, France, must say no to this reincarnation of the Soviet-American confrontation ...

    Alas, for this France needs a second de Gaulle ...
  6. sever.56
    sever.56 13 February 2016 12: 42
    47
    http://topwar.ru/uploads/images/2016/031/yndd111.png
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Michael67
    Michael67 13 February 2016 12: 45
    +8
    Moscow puts the "red lines". It’s like a cockroach pencil. You draw a strip, and cockroaches run from it. And then they die too.
  9. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 13 February 2016 12: 48
    +5
    You start to "cut through" who is hu? They say correctly: "If God wants to punish a person, he deprives him of his reason." In relations with Russia, one must be guided by common sense and "be friends" with one's own head. And do not listen to overseas tunes.
  10. newcomer
    newcomer 13 February 2016 12: 49
    +5
    largely agree on the "Berlin lines". about our tactics and strategies, it seems that they intentionally do not want to see our strategy, or the West that we left as extras, adjusts our strategy to the immediate situation, justifying ourselves by the fact that we are unpredictable. it’s just that their strategists have long been transferred and all their fuss reminds me not even of tactics, but of reaction to what happened.
  11. Tra-ta-ta
    Tra-ta-ta 13 February 2016 12: 51
    +2
    I think it’s necessary now massively send volunteers for a good salary to restore the liberated Syrian cities. The main thing is to start .., and there people from all over the world will go, the refugees will begin to return, and the war itself will shut itself up ..
    1. midivan
      midivan 13 February 2016 18: 46
      +2
      Quote: Tra-ta-ta
      I think it’s necessary now massively send volunteers for a good salary to restore the liberated Syrian cities. The main thing is to start .., and there people from all over the world will go, the refugees will begin to return, and the war itself will shut itself up ..

      is it too early? and who will pay will be a good salary? we? well, no, Syria, like Donbass, is in limbo for now and no one wants to shove the loot, I think the heels themselves are full of holes, and you’ll tear money into it, and there the power will change and the people cry, the first thing is concrete stability and all sorts of . Merkel-oland and Obama-type docks to push back further. smile or I didn’t catch up and your volunteers were the key? (Well, Babai there Motorola) winked
  12. Stinger
    Stinger 13 February 2016 12: 52
    +5
    Putin could say in response, paraphrasing the answer to the military leaders when asked how he fights: "We did not graduate from Harvards. We taught in them."
  13. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 13 February 2016 12: 54
    +2
    On the anniversary of the "Debaltsevsky boiler" - a boiler near Aleppo? But seriously, the result of the fighting near Aleppo will greatly affect the position of the parties in the negotiations. I remember someone here on the site argued that Aleppo was not of strategic importance, but apparently Syria does not know about it.
    1. Ami du peuple
      Ami du peuple 13 February 2016 12: 57
      +6
      Quote: Nikolay71
      I remember someone here on the site claimed that Aleppo has no strategic significance, but apparently in Syria they do not know about it.

      So this is our distinguished Professor from Israel argued. They have a special view of the Syrian conflict in Israel.
      1. g1v2
        g1v2 13 February 2016 13: 19
        +6
        Well, I rarely agree with the professor, but about Aleppo I agree with him. Aleppo is more a symbol than a point of victory. But cutting off the territory with the center in Azaz is another. Immediately cut the most convenient and efficient logistics route from Turkey. Plus they cut off a serious group of slippers, which in the near future will be destroyed by saa attacks from the south, Kurds from the west and ig will finish it from the east. good And by the way, even in the case of a temporary ceasefire, it does not apply to ig, Kurds and nusra, including Kurds can fight along the border and further, and saa and we can bomb anyone, because where there is no igra there is nusra. Nusra and ahram ash sham is the skeleton on which all the so-called opposition is worn. Nusra and ahram ash sham are in almost every city and on every section of the green front. We can strike anywhere where there is even a small unit of them. hi
  14. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 13 February 2016 12: 54
    +5
    Le Figaro

    And in France, meaningful articles with normal logical conclusions begin to appear. Against the backdrop of Hollande's statements, this of course looks even revolutionary. Even criticism of the United States is present.
    1. midivan
      midivan 13 February 2016 19: 13
      +4
      Quote: rotmistr60
      Le Figaro

      And in France, meaningful articles with normal logical conclusions begin to appear. Against the backdrop of Hollande's statements, this of course looks even revolutionary. Even criticism of the United States is present.

      I watched Diman in Munich today (his tongue doesn’t even turn into an iPhone) and the Frenchman, the only conclusion was that they were just like bugger pederasts, and Diman seemed to be fine, we started to turn politics at last too diplomatic and began to speak more bluntly as it is, but only half of the animals were visible in the hall! someone laughs while talking with a neighbor, someone mines up European and looking at this bestiality, I have such a s.u.c.i, and I’ll only have to conduct conversations with them hard and don’t forget to give nails periodically so that nits are not distracted
      1. gavrosh.ru
        gavrosh.ru 14 February 2016 03: 45
        0
        it would be great if these Munichs and Davos stopped caring for us ......
  15. askort154
    askort154 13 February 2016 13: 00
    15
    The author's reasoning is realistic, only he stubbornly sees Putin as a tactician. As a strategist, Putin did not show himself - "having taken Crimea, he lost Ukraine." Here, obviously, the author is not a strategist. Russia "missed" Ukraine even before Putin. NATO had specific plans for Crimea, the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" was supposed to be from 2019.
    completely in their hands. The Crimea is not Putin’s tactical victory, but clearly strategic, not to mention its moral significance for the Russian population, expressed in 83% of confidence in Putin.
    What other "strategist" in today's world can boast of such a result ?!
    1. Victor jnnjdfy
      Victor jnnjdfy 13 February 2016 14: 53
      +5
      The author naively believes that Ukraine is a kind of "sacred treasure" for Russia, and Russia lost it in 2014. Straight tragedy was played out for you and me on the issue of "independent" ...

      Russia, in my opinion, rather in 2014 partly got rid of Ukraine.

      For the EU, which acquired Ukraine, which is ruled by the United States, we can only rejoice! Good luck to the EU and Ukraine and "bread in proportion"! I would like to heartily congratulate Europe on the purchase of such a "gift" ...
      1. midivan
        midivan 13 February 2016 19: 19
        +2
        belay Are you serious??? and not why that all sorts of patriots can appear there? eeu didn’t buy 404, not everything is finished there, just a little has calmed down, so ours will squeeze Syria and take up gunpowder and to ", IMHO
        1. Victor jnnjdfy
          Victor jnnjdfy 13 February 2016 20: 58
          0
          Uh-huh ... But only Syria is left to "put the squeeze" on (by the way, there are about 70% of Sunnis and they are not at all eager to have the "chiefs" of the Alavites over themselves again). What do you propose to do with them? And also there are Kurds and Turkomans, and ...
          And then we "conquer" Ukraine and start it, a wretch: to feed, groom and cherish ... Suddenly, the "brotherly" people of Ukraine will wake up gratitude to their saviors.
          We would first of all deal with our Russian problems and restore order in the Country, and then, possibly, our neighbors will be attractive to us ...
          By the way, "Patriot" is an air defense system. And the neighboring Baltic states have long been in NATO.
  16. tehnokrat
    tehnokrat 13 February 2016 13: 03
    +2
    Quote: rotmistr60
    And in France, meaningful articles with normal logical conclusions begin to appear.

    Yes, and it pleases! And it is in Le Figaro with its popularity and circulation!
  17. Sultan Babai
    Sultan Babai 13 February 2016 13: 03
    +2
    I disagree with the author on one thing: "This is the question that Western observers put themselves after the Ukrainian events, noting that with the help of dexterous maneuvers he eventually got the Crimea, but at the same time finally lost Ukraine." We lost Ukraine in 1991, when it became independent from the USSR (Kazakhstan was the last to break away and only after that the USSR ceased to exist). If he had not taken the Crimea, then we would have lost everything, they would have started to squeeze us out of there, and our people and the Crimeans would have resisted - there would have been another Donbass. If dill poke into the Donbass, and they are going to do it, it seems to me they will get it in the teeth ... For dill, now in Russia there is a policy of exhaustion, loans will run out, debts will have to be paid, Kiev will start another mess and no one will stop the LPR and DPR ... Normal people have known this for a long time, and those who were blinded by orange torches also began to see clearly. A striking example of this is my cousin (Tatar) who has been living there with her family for 30 years. She used to write Ukraine and Europe, we will soon heal and other crap ... I tried to convince at first, but then I stopped. Then, when I asked how she was doing, she began to say that it was normal (but the voice was no longer the same - sad), now she is generally silent and has not called for half a year - it means that now there is a full. By inertia, of course, life moves, but only by inertia ... In such a situation, the powder has only one victorious war, but it will not win ... their war machine is too rotten there, when it seems to be normal, but as it moves, something must fall off.
  18. Tusv
    Tusv 13 February 2016 13: 04
    +2
    In the language of judo, one judge raises his hand and speaks Ypon, the other two wave the flag and shout Nou Yipon, Shido
  19. YohanPalych
    YohanPalych 13 February 2016 13: 06
    +2
    The title of the article ("Judoka from Geopolitics") is correct twice!
    ("Ju-Do" (Japanese) - "Succumb to Win")
    1. Wiruz
      Wiruz 13 February 2016 13: 29
      +1
      In short, a deuce to you in Japanese laughing
      "Ju-Do" in the samurai language - "The Road of Softness" bully
      1. Tusv
        Tusv 13 February 2016 14: 40
        +2
        Quote: Wiruz
        In short, a deuce to you in Japanese
        "Ju-Do" in the samurai language - "The Road of Softness"

        YohanPalych is closer to the truth of this Japanese struggle. Show weakness, let go, and then bam, using the energy of the opponent, print to the tatami
        1. onix757
          onix757 13 February 2016 15: 03
          +1
          Quote: Tusv
          Show weakness, let go, and then bam, using the energy of the opponent, print to the tatami

          Softness is more than enough, there is no hardness. Fears, fears and deformations alone. As DAM recently bent in an interview with the Germans, they say 15 years are not enough for the structural adjustment of the economy, much more is needed .. meanwhile, the Kurganmash plant is bankrupt and non-payments in the defense industry are growing exponentially.
          1. Tusv
            Tusv 13 February 2016 15: 18
            +1
            Quote: onix757
            and meanwhile the Kurganmashzavod bankrupt

            I have a colleague from Kurgan who said that this plant did not work already in 2008
            1. onix757
              onix757 13 February 2016 15: 49
              0
              Quote: Tusv
              I have a colleague from Kurgan who said that this plant did not work already in 2008

              At least he is not telling the truth. "Kurgan residents" were collected on it.
        2. Wiruz
          Wiruz 13 February 2016 16: 15
          0
          YohanPalych is closer to the truth of this Japanese struggle. Show weakness, let go, and then bam, using the energy of the opponent, print to the tatami

          It seems to me that you are confusing the daido with aikido. It’s all there to build on the use of enemy power against himself. Judo, it seems, also has a similar fighting style, but this is not the basis of this martial art.

          And I have a green taekwondo belt bully
          1. Tusv
            Tusv 13 February 2016 17: 03
            +1
            Quote: Wiruz
            It seems to me that you are confusing the deiudo with aikido

            Aikido did not practice. Here in Sambo and Judo he won many competitions and saw cities.
      2. Weyland
        Weyland 13 February 2016 17: 25
        +1
        Quote: Wiruz
        In short, a deuce to you in Japanese


        And you have a two in religious studies! The term "Tao" (Japanese pronunciation of "Do") is so polysemantic that the translation of "path" is not entirely adequate, and it is better not to try to translate it at all - especially considering that "Tao that can be expressed in words is not the true Tao ! " (from)
      3. YohanPalych
        YohanPalych 13 February 2016 22: 05
        0
        Quote: Wiruz
        In short, a deuce to you in Japanese laughing
        "Ju-Do" in the samurai language - "The Road of Softness" bully

        I won’t argue about the accuracy of the translation. One question: The creator of the struggle, Jigaro Kano (doctor by profession)
        Alexey hi the question is: What side does the doctor feel about the Samurai caste? (Warriors)
    2. The comment was deleted.
  20. All-seeing
    All-seeing 13 February 2016 13: 09
    0
    Another common opinion from Alexis Feerchak. Will anyone other than us hear him?
  21. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 13 February 2016 13: 15
    +9
    The author is mistaken about the strategy. IMHO, the results of the strategy are not immediately visible. And no one remembers how the GDP began to prepare Russia for shocks? When was it forbidden for officials to have accounts and property abroad? When "quietly" moved the military-industrial complex and food security. And now even if you lower the "iron curtain" - apart from problems with tourism, Russia is not seriously threatened. The devaluation of the ruble reduced imports and supported exports. And in this scenario, the balance of payments remains strongly positive! Again $ 11 billion plus. But those who actually supply "import-substituting" devices and equipment are overwhelmed with orders and are actively expanding! It is possible that this devaluation trick was conceived a long time ago, and the West gave a convenient excuse to "turn it over", writing off all costs on "sanctions." And this whole performance with clowns like Ulyukaev and Gref expects to deceive Western analysts who do not understand Russian reality well. IMHO, otherwise it's hard for me to explain the calmness shown by the main players in Russian politics.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Oleg14774
      Oleg14774 13 February 2016 14: 04
      0
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      About strategy

      A bullseye and no comment!
    3. onix757
      onix757 13 February 2016 15: 26
      0
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      And now even if you lower the "iron curtain" - apart from problems with tourism, Russia is not seriously threatened. The devaluation of the ruble reduced imports and supported exports. And in this scenario, the balance of payments remains strongly positive! Again $ 11 billion plus.

      And why then budget spending cuts if everything is so fine?
    4. PHANTOM-AS
      PHANTOM-AS 13 February 2016 15: 50
      +2
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Ruble devaluation reduced imports and supported exports

      export of what?
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      Again $ 11 billion plus.

      and 170 pyards of capital outflow is a minus.
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      It is possible that this trick with devaluation was conceived a long time ago,

      kaneshno for a long time, so that as a result of speculation in the foreign exchange markets state property for freebie grab. By simple manipulations of the Central Bank of 50-70 lard poets chopped up just in the domestic market.
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      And this whole performance with clowns like Ulyukaev and Gref expects to deceive Western analysts who do not understand Russian reality well.

      Yeah, hpp-2 laughing
      Quote: Mountain Shooter
      otherwise, it’s hard for me to explain the calmness that the main players of Russian politics show.

      And you don’t have anything wink
  22. newcomer
    newcomer 13 February 2016 13: 31
    +2
    Syrian news. military mat. they write that the Saudis have already transferred troops and aircraft to the Ingerlik.
  23. Ignatius
    Ignatius 13 February 2016 13: 40
    0
    Quote: askort154
    The author's reasoning is realistic, only he stubbornly sees Putin as a tactician. As a strategist, Putin did not show himself - "having taken Crimea, he lost Ukraine." Here, obviously, the author is not a strategist. Russia "missed" Ukraine even before Putin. NATO had specific plans for Crimea, the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" was supposed to be from 2019.
    completely in their hands. The Crimea is not Putin’s tactical victory, but clearly strategic, not to mention its moral significance for the Russian population, expressed in 83% of confidence in Putin.
    What other "strategist" in today's world can boast of such a result ?!


    I completely agree. If it had not been for Crimea, today the US and NATO aircraft carriers completely blocked our Black Sea ports in the Krasnodar Territory.
  24. onix757
    onix757 13 February 2016 14: 09
    -3
    The eternal search for "truce" because of their own weakness is now called judoism? It's funny ..
    1. onix757
      onix757 13 February 2016 14: 39
      -3
      Well, what uralzepatriokremlebot minus set? Let’s argue.
      1. Cat man null
        Cat man null 13 February 2016 15: 00
        +3
        Quote: onix757
        Well, what uralzepatriokremlebot minus set? Let's argue

        Not me laughing

        And so, of course it’s - it’s so much nicer, I understand (it’s like I said nonsense, and the pluses are nemesis nemeryanno) laughing
        1. onix757
          onix757 13 February 2016 15: 19
          -4
          Quote: Cat Man Null
          Not me

          And so, of course it’s - it’s so much nicer, I understand (it’s like I said nonsense, and the pluses are nemesis nemeryanno)

          It is gratifying that not you .. Not that it is accepted / unpleasant, but the point is the motivation of my posts. If I write, I’m ready to defend my point of view, even with minuses, but in discussion.
          1. Cat man null
            Cat man null 13 February 2016 15: 28
            +4
            Quote: onix757
            If I write, I’m ready to defend my point of view, even with minuses, but in discussion.

            I looked at your tape (not all, really).

            I got the impression that discussing with you is nothing:

            - you say in slogans, as a rule (about the "eternal search for truce" and "three destroyed enterprises" are no exception)
            - you can’t confirm these slogans seriously, with the facts, it’s painful they are not specific, patamushta .. request

            Quote: onix757
            the point is the motivation of my posts

            IMHO you are just bored .. and here are the pros, cons, discussions .. yes

            Good luck collecting stars wink
            1. onix757
              onix757 13 February 2016 15: 36
              -1
              Quote: Cat Man Null
              - you say in slogans, as a rule (about the "eternal search for truce" and "three destroyed enterprises" are no exception)
              - you can’t confirm these slogans seriously, with the facts, it’s painful they are not specific, patamushta ..

              You see, when defense enterprises go bankrupt or simply liquidate, these are not slogans, but people's fates and the country's defense capabilities. So behind my slogans lies the reality of reality and behind your (conditionally) pink is not reality
              1. Cat man null
                Cat man null 13 February 2016 17: 21
                +2
                Quote: onix757
                You see, when defense enterprises go bankrupt or simply liquidate, these are not slogans, but people's fates and the country's defense capabilities.

                And in more detail? Who went bankrupt there, and how exactly did this affect the country's defense capability?

                Here in front of my eyes is Mr. Korolev. TSNIIMASH, Energy, NIIT and other smaller ones - they are quite working and are actively recruiting both workers and engineering personnel.

                Recently I worked for a "very defense" office from Moscow, well, oh-oh-sooo big .. Nobody, you know, bankrupts them .. there are a lot of plans, funding is there, people are working ..

                Quote: onix757
                So behind my slogans lies the reality of reality

                Thrill these are your slogans. Common words, not supported by anything.

                Quote: onix757
                and behind your (conditionally) pink is not reality

                Nu-nu .. what could - I said there above, read yes
  25. Alekst
    Alekst 13 February 2016 14: 37
    0
    hmm, how many Western analysts I don’t read, the feeling remains that they consider themselves to be some kind of absolute force laughing which you understand will exist forever fool Well, the peak of the heyday of the West has long passed, and they spend what was earned by generations of their ancestors, if earlier they solved conflicts quite simply, by the decision of the governor or squadron commander, now they have to unite and solve the same problems all together, now the European Union is less authoritative than for example, medieval France or Holland at its height, in general Eurocentrism is wretched, at the moment, civilization ...
  26. Santjaga_Garka
    Santjaga_Garka 13 February 2016 14: 49
    0
    I have already said many times and I will not tire of repeating - double standards - they are everywhere, "I can and have the right, but you cannot and do not have the right!"
  27. Alexey M
    Alexey M 13 February 2016 15: 21
    0
    As an experienced judoka, Vladimir Putin prefers to use the weaknesses of opponents to achieve the goal with the least expenditure of energy.
    And I thought that an experienced judoka himself makes the opponent make mistakes. And he does not expect his mistakes, but leads him to that fatal mistake. The reception can be divided into three phases, capture, unbalance, and the throw itself.
    So far, we now see only fitting, opponents to each other. The struggle itself is still ahead.
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 13 February 2016 16: 14
      0
      Syria needs to be saved, and Vladimir Putin understands this very well like Iran, Iraq, China and many other countries; otherwise, a wave of terror staged fed and directed by the United States by Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar will sweep the entire Middle East and receive arsenals of destroyed Damascus will crush Russia Iran and then China .
      And now the peace in Syria depends precisely on such irreconcilable fighters against fanatics and murderers as Russia Iran and Hezbollah’s movements, as well as various volunteers who are not just spoiling their lives to destroy the bandits in this country.
  28. Olegovi4
    Olegovi4 15 February 2016 02: 14
    0
    "as well as Shiite troops from Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan" - but about the Afghans, personally for me news. Does anyone have more info?
  29. Olegovi4
    Olegovi4 15 February 2016 02: 16
    0
    "is mostly on defensive positions, which is costly for Moscow" - this is how Russia has been on defensive positions throughout its history. therefore it is strange that she is always considered an aggressor.