The invasion of Turkey and Saudi Arabia into Syria, as well as the war with Russia, has not yet been predetermined; many factors determine the situation: from the personality of Erdogan to the position of Washington. However, this possibility exists. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have recently felt “outcast”. The United States is increasingly moving away from its former strategic allies. They have already fulfilled their role - they took the most active part in reformatting the Middle East. But in Ankara and Riyadh they forgot that the stick is about two ends. The masters of the West are planning a full “reset of the matrix”, that is, the territories of Turkey and Saudi Arabia are also planned to be divided into smaller and more manageable state formations or tribal territories.
Not surprisingly, the same Riyadh has recently developed vigorous activity, knocking together an alliance of Islamic states, pumping up Egypt with money and actively arming it, organizing an invasion of Yemen, trying with cheaper oil than other countries to dump competitors (first of all Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria and Russia) and to take their market share, etc. At the same time, the dismemberment of Syria for Saudi Arabia and Turkey in recent years has been a priority activity. Due to the collapse of Syria and the liquidation of the Assad regime, Turkey and Saudi Arabia want to solve a number of problems. In particular, strike Iran’s positions in the region, crush the hostile regime, gain economic benefits in the form of control over the routes of oil transportation, etc.
But Russia's intervention at the very last moment, when the fall of Damascus was not far off, confused the maps of Ankara and Riyadh. With the support of the Russian Armed Forces, the exhausted Syrian army was able to launch a counteroffensive. It is clear that it is still far from victory, but there is success. Therefore, Turkey and Saudi Arabia need to take emergency measures - a direct invasion, or admit defeat. And also forget about the huge resources and resources spent on the war in Syria. Damascus, with the support of Russia and Iran, will sooner or later restore order and knock out gangs.
Therefore, Ankara made a series of sharp movements. 24 November 2015 of the year in the border area over the territory of Syria was shot down by our bomber Su-24M, according to Ankara violated the air borders of Turkey. The ejected pilot of the aircraft, Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov, was killed by a gang of militants led by a Turkish citizen. Then the terrorists destroyed the Mi-8 helicopter, on board of which the marine Alexander Pozynich died. Ankara has refused a public apology. Now it came to preparing for the intervention in Syria and the accusation of Moscow of "war crimes".
February 7 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara should not repeat the same mistake in Syria as when it refused on the US proposal to join the coalition to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein. “We do not want to make the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq. You need to see the horizon. What happens in Syria can only happen to a certain point. In one of them, this should change, ”said Erdogan. According to the leader of Turkey, the Turkish military forces are “ready for any possible situations” in Syria. At the same time, Erdogan accused Putin of occupying Syria: “What are you doing in Syria? You are essentially an occupier. ”
February 8, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmush, claims that part of the airstrikes of the Russian military forces in Syria falls to civilian regions. At a cabinet meeting, he said: “We see that Russian air strikes in Syria affect civilian regions. Of the operations undertaken by Russia around 6200, approximately 85 percent were aimed at moderate opposition and civilian. ” At the same time, he noted that the fighting provoked a new wave of refugees.
On February 9, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that his country intends to protect Syrian Aleppo, calling it the return of historical debt: “We will return our historical debt. Once our brothers from Aleppo defended our cities - Sanliurfa, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras (during the First World War), now we will protect the heroic Aleppo. Behind his defenders is all of Turkey. ”
February 10 Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu compared Russia's actions in Syria with the war in Afghanistan and stated that only 10% of Russian air strikes in Syria fell to the position of the Islamic State militants (banned in the Russian Federation). According to him, the Russian Federation will become bogged down in Syria, like the USSR in Afghanistan: “No one should forget, as the forces of the Soviet Union, significant, significant forces during the Cold War entered Afghanistan, leaving Afghanistan then in a situation of dependence. Those who entered Syria today will also leave Syria in a dependent position. ”
11 February, Turkish President Erdogan warned that Ankara’s patience may be exhausted and then she will take active steps in Syria. “We will be patient until a certain point, and then we will take the necessary measures. The number of refugees may reach 600 by thousands of people if the air strikes do not cease, ”the Turkish leader said at a meeting with businessmen. On the same day, Advisor to the Minister of Defense Ahmed Asiri, said that Saudi Arabia does not intend to reconsider the decision to conduct a land operation in Syria.
Simultaneously appeared news about the transfer of troops of Saudi Arabia to Jordan and the military preparations of Turkey. “We have serious reasons to suspect Turkey’s intensive preparation for a military invasion of the territory of a sovereign state - the Syrian Arab Republic. There are more and more signs of the hidden preparation of the Turkish armed forces for active operations in Syria, ”said Major-General Igor Konashenkov, an official spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Syria. In general, it is clear that at present the Turkish army has an overwhelming superiority over the Syrian one. Especially with the participation of the military contingents of the Arab monarchies, which will distract part of the Armed Forces of Syria. If at the beginning of the war in Syria, the Syrian army was a "tough nut to crack" and could cause unacceptable damage to the Turkish troops, now the situation has radically changed. Syrian troops are exhausted by a long-term bloody war, great losses are incurred, soldiers are mentally tired, the combat potential is seriously weakened - the number of "trunks", ammunition, etc. In addition, the Syrian troops simultaneously have to fight with a variety of gangs - from "moderate" to jihadists. And part of the troops will be distracted by the Saudis and their allies. It is also worth considering that under the pressure of the “world community” Damascus was forced to abandon the extreme means of protecting its sovereignty - chemical weapons.
Thus, if Turkey and its Arab allies only have to deal with a weakened Syrian army, then the death sentence will be signed to Syria. It is finally and irrevocably divided into spheres of influence.
In this scenario, Moscow will be forced to either leave Syria or respond. Withdrawal from Syria is quite possible, especially considering the situation with Ukraine and the Donbas. After all, Moscow had every opportunity to reunite with Russia not only the Crimea, but also the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and, if desired, the entire south-eastern Ukraine. Kiev then could not interfere. The question was just how far the green men would go. However, the project "Novorossiya" turned. Apparently, under the tacit political pressure of the West. Moreover, all the talk about a nuclear war with the United States and NATO over Ukraine is nonsense and deception. Never West would not fight because of the Ukraine-Ukraine really. Diplomatic pressure, yelling about the “Russian threat”, economic sanctions and the gradual build-up of NATO forces on the eastern borders are the limit. All this happened without the return of Kiev and Kharkov. Occasion - Crimea. And the pressure will continue, while Moscow will negotiate with "partners" (our millennial geopolitical enemies). Withdrawal from Syria is possible with the intensification of the "political process", the "truce" of the main forces. In fact, in such a scenario, Damascus can save only Latakia-Tartus, the Alawite settlement center.
If it is decided to support Syria, the question arises - how? Radically strengthen the Syrian armed forces Russia can not. First, the Syrian troops are exhausted by the longstanding war and the infusion of new weapons and the support of ammunition can not seriously change the situation. Secondly, Turkey and the West can radically narrow the channels for the supply of arms, ammunition and military materials. In particular, blocking the straits from the Black to the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey will be a belligerent country and close the straits.
It is possible that Russia will support the Syrian troops from the air. In this case, a scenario is possible that airplanes with Syrian identification marks (or without them) will strike. Russia can create big problems for Turkey, despite its numerical superiority in the air in the Syrian direction. Syria’s presence of modern air forces, air defense, and naval grouping guarantees Ankara big problems.
Such an option, when Turkey ignores the Russian presence, and will not strike at our positions itself, and we will secretly strengthen the armed forces of Syria, can suit many. However, it is fraught with a slide into the expansion of the conflict. And it is unlikely to suit Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the West as a whole, which have already set their sights on the dismemberment of Syria.
Ankara now also faces a choice: to ignore the Russian presence or defeat our Syrian group. With this option, Turkey will have to launch an attack against Hmeimim and other airfields, which are used by our Air Force, as well as our ships in Syria. Here Ankara may hope that Moscow will not risk retaliation against bases in Turkey, since this leads to conflict with the entire NATO bloc. In particular, it is possible shelling located fifty kilometers from the Turkish border Hmeimim using long-range MLRS. The airbase, created on the squares of the civil airport of Latakia, is deprived of protective structures for aircraft, and the shelling will not allow to send reinforcements there. Also, the Turkish army can throw in this direction a mechanized grouping. It is also possible to strike the Turkish Air Force and Navy in the Russian squadron in the Mediterranean.
In general, given the isolation of the Syrian theater from Russia, Turkey has a chance of a blitzkrieg against our group. However, Russia has shown that it is not so simple. The sudden putting on alert the morning of February 8, 2016 Russian airborne forces and military transport aviation hints at the possibility of an additional contingent of our troops appearing in Syria. And this increases the risks, leads to the expansion of the conflict.
The difficulty is that Ankara does not know how Moscow will behave. Russia can respond with strikes already on the territory of Turkey - the bases of the fleet and the air force. In addition, it is not obvious that the NATO bloc will immediately rush to the aid of the Turks. The US and NATO can wait some time, limiting themselves to diplomacy and information war.
On the one hand, NATO defense ministers gave the go-ahead to strengthen the alliance’s military presence in Eastern Europe. NATO also approved the expansion of the military presence in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO has already deployed six headquarters in Eastern Europe and two new headquarters will be deployed there before the end of the year. NATO will also strengthen the air and sea grouping in Turkey. According to Stoltenberg, additional guarantees for Turkey were approved at the end of 2015. These included the deployment of radar patrol airplanes (AWACS) in the region, increased air patrols, and increased presence of NATO navies in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. It was also decided to extend the stay in Turkey of the Patriot air defense batteries.
On the other hand, the United States refused to choose between Turkey and the Kurds. NATO Secretary General said that the US and NATO do not support the initiative of Turkey to create a safety zone in the north of Syria.
At the same time, the calculations of some “patriotic” attacks of tactical nuclear weapons on Turkey can be immediately forgotten. Russia cannot be the first to use nuclear weapons in such a situation. Only during the invasion of the enemy army into the territory of Russia and the disastrous situation of the Russian Armed Forces. If Moscow applies tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey, then Russia will automatically be recorded in the "Resident Evil" ("Evil Empire"). The Russian Federation will become an outcast worse than the DPRK. The United States and NATO will receive the blessing of the whole world for a "crusade" to the East. As a result, Moscow will be forced to abandon nuclear weapons, and after that, the dismemberment of Russia is inevitable.
Another possible theater of war is the Black Sea. For several more years, the Turkish Navy had a significant advantage over our aging Black Sea Fleet, which was seriously weakened after the collapse of the USSR. The Black Sea Fleet lost the coast of Transcaucasia and Ukraine, only Novorossiysk remained. The fleet itself, after the division and decommissioning of many ships for breaking up, already resembled a flotilla more. Turkey had a complete advantage in the submarine fleet (Turkish submarine fleet - the undivided lord of the depths of the Black Sea) and among the frigates and corvettes. Recently, however, the situation has seriously changed. First, the renewal and modernization of the Black Sea Fleet began. Secondly, we received the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" - the Crimea with Sevastopol, that is, we have the opportunity to radically strengthen our position at the Black Sea theater. Thirdly, the Crimean group was created, and aviation was deployed.
As a result, the Black Sea Fleet, with the support of Long-Range Aviation, Naval Aviation and Air Defense Forces (fighter aviation, anti-aircraft missile regiments), may well defeat the Turkish Navy. So, a military expert and maritime weapons specialist Konstantin Sivkov считаетthat “as a result of military actions, the Turkish Navy may lose up to 40 − 45% of its surface ships and boats, as well as up to 4-s submarines (which will amount to 27% of their total number). At the same time, losses of the Black Sea Fleet can be: for ships of the main classes and boats - up to 25 − 30%, for aviation - up to 35%, for coastal troops - up to 30% and 1 − 2 submarines ”.
Thus, the Black Sea Fleet, with the support of aviation, is able to defeat the Turkish Navy during the week and basically solve the task of gaining superiority in the coastal zone of the Black Sea. In this case, our losses will also be serious, but the fleet will retain its combat capability.
Entry into the game the United States and NATO. The problem is that the NATO bloc can speak for Turkey. Then the NATO naval group consisting of more than 2-3 ship strike groups from cruiser-class, destroyer and frigate ships, which will be supported by US naval carrier aircraft from aircraft-carrier strike groups (up to 3-x carrier strike groups) from the Eastern Mediterranean, will enter the Black Sea . In addition, States and NATO countries can strike by tactical aviation forces from Turkish airfields. Then the defeat of the Black Sea Fleet is inevitable, although the enemy will suffer certain losses.
Further, the landing of enemy landings on the Black Sea coast of Russia and the strikes of NATO aircraft from the sea direction at the facilities of the Russian Federation and the infrastructure of the Russian Federation are possible. NATO can organize the Crimean operation. In fact, this is the scenario of the Eastern (Crimean) War 1853-1856. That is, the Russian Federation is able to defeat Turkey, both in a local conflict and in full-scale (but with serious losses), but then the United States and NATO can intervene and with a series of blows force Moscow to make concessions, especially in the conditions of the socio-economic crisis, which will inevitably grow into a political one.
In such a situation, no one will be the first to use nuclear weapons. For Moscow, the use of nuclear weapons first is a complete discredit to all of humanity and the corresponding consequences. For the USA and NATO, there is no need to use nuclear weapons, it is enough to introduce full-scale economic and technological sanctions, cut off food supplies and "bite" the Russian Federation from different directions with the help of Turkey, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, etc. Wait for the palace coup to take place in Russia either the revolution or Moscow itself will go to the “Paris world” with the cession of the Crimea, the demilitarization of the Black Sea basin, etc.
Other directions. Possible escalation in other directions. Thus, it is almost inevitable that at the beginning of the Russian-Turkish war, Ukraine will take the side of Ankara. There is a possibility that Ukraine will support and Poland. Kiev will try to crush the Donbass and recapture the Crimea. Obviously, in the Crimean direction, the Ukrainian army will be defeated. In the Donbas, options are possible: the defeat of the militias, the defeat of the Ukrainian army (if Russia helps) or the new protracted meat grinder. At the same time, the West wins in any case — the Russians kill the Russians, reducing the total potential. At the same time, Turkey may try to organize an uprising of the Crimean Tatars. Ankara may try to cause a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh, which will divert Russia's attention to the Caucasus.
For its part, Russia can bet on the Kurds in Syria and Turkey itself. Officially recognize the need to create an independent Kurdistan in Turkey. Support the Kurdish movement with expert advisors, weapons and equipment.
It should be noted that, apparently, Moscow understands all the danger of the situation, and especially the Crimean direction. So, serious exercises are going on in the Crimea. On the peninsula, as part of a surprise check, fighter aircraft were raised into the air, alerted units of anti-aircraft missile forces, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, checked the organization of the work of the control points of the 31 Air Defense Division in the course of repelling a massive missile and air strike of a conditional enemy. According to the Minister of Defense of Russia Sergey Shoigu: "The force grouping in the Crimea has been strengthened, the aviation and air defense forces are ready to repel a massive air strike of a conditional enemy."
Thus, Turkey can bring the already started Third World War to a higher level.