Military Review

Possible scenarios of the war with Turkey

282
Escalation of the conflict


The invasion of Turkey and Saudi Arabia into Syria, as well as the war with Russia, has not yet been predetermined; many factors determine the situation: from the personality of Erdogan to the position of Washington. However, this possibility exists. Moreover, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have recently felt “outcast”. The United States is increasingly moving away from its former strategic allies. They have already fulfilled their role - they took the most active part in reformatting the Middle East. But in Ankara and Riyadh they forgot that the stick is about two ends. The masters of the West are planning a full “reset of the matrix”, that is, the territories of Turkey and Saudi Arabia are also planned to be divided into smaller and more manageable state formations or tribal territories.

Not surprisingly, the same Riyadh has recently developed vigorous activity, knocking together an alliance of Islamic states, pumping up Egypt with money and actively arming it, organizing an invasion of Yemen, trying with cheaper oil than other countries to dump competitors (first of all Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria and Russia) and to take their market share, etc. At the same time, the dismemberment of Syria for Saudi Arabia and Turkey in recent years has been a priority activity. Due to the collapse of Syria and the liquidation of the Assad regime, Turkey and Saudi Arabia want to solve a number of problems. In particular, strike Iran’s positions in the region, crush the hostile regime, gain economic benefits in the form of control over the routes of oil transportation, etc.

But Russia's intervention at the very last moment, when the fall of Damascus was not far off, confused the maps of Ankara and Riyadh. With the support of the Russian Armed Forces, the exhausted Syrian army was able to launch a counteroffensive. It is clear that it is still far from victory, but there is success. Therefore, Turkey and Saudi Arabia need to take emergency measures - a direct invasion, or admit defeat. And also forget about the huge resources and resources spent on the war in Syria. Damascus, with the support of Russia and Iran, will sooner or later restore order and knock out gangs.

Therefore, Ankara made a series of sharp movements. 24 November 2015 of the year in the border area over the territory of Syria was shot down by our bomber Su-24M, according to Ankara violated the air borders of Turkey. The ejected pilot of the aircraft, Lieutenant Colonel Oleg Peshkov, was killed by a gang of militants led by a Turkish citizen. Then the terrorists destroyed the Mi-8 helicopter, on board of which the marine Alexander Pozynich died. Ankara has refused a public apology. Now it came to preparing for the intervention in Syria and the accusation of Moscow of "war crimes".

February 7 Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that Ankara should not repeat the same mistake in Syria as when it refused on the US proposal to join the coalition to overthrow the regime of Saddam Hussein. “We do not want to make the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq. You need to see the horizon. What happens in Syria can only happen to a certain point. In one of them, this should change, ”said Erdogan. According to the leader of Turkey, the Turkish military forces are “ready for any possible situations” in Syria. At the same time, Erdogan accused Putin of occupying Syria: “What are you doing in Syria? You are essentially an occupier. ”

February 8, Turkish Deputy Prime Minister Numan Kurtulmush, claims that part of the airstrikes of the Russian military forces in Syria falls to civilian regions. At a cabinet meeting, he said: “We see that Russian air strikes in Syria affect civilian regions. Of the operations undertaken by Russia around 6200, approximately 85 percent were aimed at moderate opposition and civilian. ” At the same time, he noted that the fighting provoked a new wave of refugees.

On February 9, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu announced that his country intends to protect Syrian Aleppo, calling it the return of historical debt: “We will return our historical debt. Once our brothers from Aleppo defended our cities - Sanliurfa, Gaziantep, Kahramanmaras (during the First World War), now we will protect the heroic Aleppo. Behind his defenders is all of Turkey. ”

February 10 Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu compared Russia's actions in Syria with the war in Afghanistan and stated that only 10% of Russian air strikes in Syria fell to the position of the Islamic State militants (banned in the Russian Federation). According to him, the Russian Federation will become bogged down in Syria, like the USSR in Afghanistan: “No one should forget, as the forces of the Soviet Union, significant, significant forces during the Cold War entered Afghanistan, leaving Afghanistan then in a situation of dependence. Those who entered Syria today will also leave Syria in a dependent position. ”

11 February, Turkish President Erdogan warned that Ankara’s patience may be exhausted and then she will take active steps in Syria. “We will be patient until a certain point, and then we will take the necessary measures. The number of refugees may reach 600 by thousands of people if the air strikes do not cease, ”the Turkish leader said at a meeting with businessmen. On the same day, Advisor to the Minister of Defense Ahmed Asiri, said that Saudi Arabia does not intend to reconsider the decision to conduct a land operation in Syria.

Simultaneously appeared news about the transfer of troops of Saudi Arabia to Jordan and the military preparations of Turkey. “We have serious reasons to suspect Turkey’s intensive preparation for a military invasion of the territory of a sovereign state - the Syrian Arab Republic. There are more and more signs of the hidden preparation of the Turkish armed forces for active operations in Syria, ”said Major-General Igor Konashenkov, an official spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense.



Possible scenarios

Syria. In general, it is clear that at present the Turkish army has an overwhelming superiority over the Syrian one. Especially with the participation of the military contingents of the Arab monarchies, which will distract part of the Armed Forces of Syria. If at the beginning of the war in Syria, the Syrian army was a "tough nut to crack" and could cause unacceptable damage to the Turkish troops, now the situation has radically changed. Syrian troops are exhausted by a long-term bloody war, great losses are incurred, soldiers are mentally tired, the combat potential is seriously weakened - the number of "trunks", ammunition, etc. In addition, the Syrian troops simultaneously have to fight with a variety of gangs - from "moderate" to jihadists. And part of the troops will be distracted by the Saudis and their allies. It is also worth considering that under the pressure of the “world community” Damascus was forced to abandon the extreme means of protecting its sovereignty - chemical weapons.

Thus, if Turkey and its Arab allies only have to deal with a weakened Syrian army, then the death sentence will be signed to Syria. It is finally and irrevocably divided into spheres of influence.

In this scenario, Moscow will be forced to either leave Syria or respond. Withdrawal from Syria is quite possible, especially considering the situation with Ukraine and the Donbas. After all, Moscow had every opportunity to reunite with Russia not only the Crimea, but also the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and, if desired, the entire south-eastern Ukraine. Kiev then could not interfere. The question was just how far the green men would go. However, the project "Novorossiya" turned. Apparently, under the tacit political pressure of the West. Moreover, all the talk about a nuclear war with the United States and NATO over Ukraine is nonsense and deception. Never West would not fight because of the Ukraine-Ukraine really. Diplomatic pressure, yelling about the “Russian threat”, economic sanctions and the gradual build-up of NATO forces on the eastern borders are the limit. All this happened without the return of Kiev and Kharkov. Occasion - Crimea. And the pressure will continue, while Moscow will negotiate with "partners" (our millennial geopolitical enemies). Withdrawal from Syria is possible with the intensification of the "political process", the "truce" of the main forces. In fact, in such a scenario, Damascus can save only Latakia-Tartus, the Alawite settlement center.

If it is decided to support Syria, the question arises - how? Radically strengthen the Syrian armed forces Russia can not. First, the Syrian troops are exhausted by the longstanding war and the infusion of new weapons and the support of ammunition can not seriously change the situation. Secondly, Turkey and the West can radically narrow the channels for the supply of arms, ammunition and military materials. In particular, blocking the straits from the Black to the Mediterranean Sea. Turkey will be a belligerent country and close the straits.

It is possible that Russia will support the Syrian troops from the air. In this case, a scenario is possible that airplanes with Syrian identification marks (or without them) will strike. Russia can create big problems for Turkey, despite its numerical superiority in the air in the Syrian direction. Syria’s presence of modern air forces, air defense, and naval grouping guarantees Ankara big problems.

Such an option, when Turkey ignores the Russian presence, and will not strike at our positions itself, and we will secretly strengthen the armed forces of Syria, can suit many. However, it is fraught with a slide into the expansion of the conflict. And it is unlikely to suit Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the West as a whole, which have already set their sights on the dismemberment of Syria.

Ankara now also faces a choice: to ignore the Russian presence or defeat our Syrian group. With this option, Turkey will have to launch an attack against Hmeimim and other airfields, which are used by our Air Force, as well as our ships in Syria. Here Ankara may hope that Moscow will not risk retaliation against bases in Turkey, since this leads to conflict with the entire NATO bloc. In particular, it is possible shelling located fifty kilometers from the Turkish border Hmeimim using long-range MLRS. The airbase, created on the squares of the civil airport of Latakia, is deprived of protective structures for aircraft, and the shelling will not allow to send reinforcements there. Also, the Turkish army can throw in this direction a mechanized grouping. It is also possible to strike the Turkish Air Force and Navy in the Russian squadron in the Mediterranean.

In general, given the isolation of the Syrian theater from Russia, Turkey has a chance of a blitzkrieg against our group. However, Russia has shown that it is not so simple. The sudden putting on alert the morning of February 8, 2016 Russian airborne forces and military transport aviation hints at the possibility of an additional contingent of our troops appearing in Syria. And this increases the risks, leads to the expansion of the conflict.

The difficulty is that Ankara does not know how Moscow will behave. Russia can respond with strikes already on the territory of Turkey - the bases of the fleet and the air force. In addition, it is not obvious that the NATO bloc will immediately rush to the aid of the Turks. The US and NATO can wait some time, limiting themselves to diplomacy and information war.

On the one hand, NATO defense ministers gave the go-ahead to strengthen the alliance’s military presence in Eastern Europe. NATO also approved the expansion of the military presence in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that NATO has already deployed six headquarters in Eastern Europe and two new headquarters will be deployed there before the end of the year. NATO will also strengthen the air and sea grouping in Turkey. According to Stoltenberg, additional guarantees for Turkey were approved at the end of 2015. These included the deployment of radar patrol airplanes (AWACS) in the region, increased air patrols, and increased presence of NATO navies in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. It was also decided to extend the stay in Turkey of the Patriot air defense batteries.

On the other hand, the United States refused to choose between Turkey and the Kurds. NATO Secretary General said that the US and NATO do not support the initiative of Turkey to create a safety zone in the north of Syria.

At the same time, the calculations of some “patriotic” attacks of tactical nuclear weapons on Turkey can be immediately forgotten. Russia cannot be the first to use nuclear weapons in such a situation. Only during the invasion of the enemy army into the territory of Russia and the disastrous situation of the Russian Armed Forces. If Moscow applies tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey, then Russia will automatically be recorded in the "Resident Evil" ("Evil Empire"). The Russian Federation will become an outcast worse than the DPRK. The United States and NATO will receive the blessing of the whole world for a "crusade" to the East. As a result, Moscow will be forced to abandon nuclear weapons, and after that, the dismemberment of Russia is inevitable.

Another possible theater of war is the Black Sea. For several more years, the Turkish Navy had a significant advantage over our aging Black Sea Fleet, which was seriously weakened after the collapse of the USSR. The Black Sea Fleet lost the coast of Transcaucasia and Ukraine, only Novorossiysk remained. The fleet itself, after the division and decommissioning of many ships for breaking up, already resembled a flotilla more. Turkey had a complete advantage in the submarine fleet (Turkish submarine fleet - the undivided lord of the depths of the Black Sea) and among the frigates and corvettes. Recently, however, the situation has seriously changed. First, the renewal and modernization of the Black Sea Fleet began. Secondly, we received the "unsinkable aircraft carrier" - the Crimea with Sevastopol, that is, we have the opportunity to radically strengthen our position at the Black Sea theater. Thirdly, the Crimean group was created, and aviation was deployed.

As a result, the Black Sea Fleet, with the support of Long-Range Aviation, Naval Aviation and Air Defense Forces (fighter aviation, anti-aircraft missile regiments), may well defeat the Turkish Navy. So, a military expert and maritime weapons specialist Konstantin Sivkov считаетthat “as a result of military actions, the Turkish Navy may lose up to 40 − 45% of its surface ships and boats, as well as up to 4-s submarines (which will amount to 27% of their total number). At the same time, losses of the Black Sea Fleet can be: for ships of the main classes and boats - up to 25 − 30%, for aviation - up to 35%, for coastal troops - up to 30% and 1 − 2 submarines ”.

Thus, the Black Sea Fleet, with the support of aviation, is able to defeat the Turkish Navy during the week and basically solve the task of gaining superiority in the coastal zone of the Black Sea. In this case, our losses will also be serious, but the fleet will retain its combat capability.

Entry into the game the United States and NATO. The problem is that the NATO bloc can speak for Turkey. Then the NATO naval group consisting of more than 2-3 ship strike groups from cruiser-class, destroyer and frigate ships, which will be supported by US naval carrier aircraft from aircraft-carrier strike groups (up to 3-x carrier strike groups) from the Eastern Mediterranean, will enter the Black Sea . In addition, States and NATO countries can strike by tactical aviation forces from Turkish airfields. Then the defeat of the Black Sea Fleet is inevitable, although the enemy will suffer certain losses.

Further, the landing of enemy landings on the Black Sea coast of Russia and the strikes of NATO aircraft from the sea direction at the facilities of the Russian Federation and the infrastructure of the Russian Federation are possible. NATO can organize the Crimean operation. In fact, this is the scenario of the Eastern (Crimean) War 1853-1856. That is, the Russian Federation is able to defeat Turkey, both in a local conflict and in full-scale (but with serious losses), but then the United States and NATO can intervene and with a series of blows force Moscow to make concessions, especially in the conditions of the socio-economic crisis, which will inevitably grow into a political one.

In such a situation, no one will be the first to use nuclear weapons. For Moscow, the use of nuclear weapons first is a complete discredit to all of humanity and the corresponding consequences. For the USA and NATO, there is no need to use nuclear weapons, it is enough to introduce full-scale economic and technological sanctions, cut off food supplies and "bite" the Russian Federation from different directions with the help of Turkey, Georgia, Ukraine, Poland, etc. Wait for the palace coup to take place in Russia either the revolution or Moscow itself will go to the “Paris world” with the cession of the Crimea, the demilitarization of the Black Sea basin, etc.

Other directions. Possible escalation in other directions. Thus, it is almost inevitable that at the beginning of the Russian-Turkish war, Ukraine will take the side of Ankara. There is a possibility that Ukraine will support and Poland. Kiev will try to crush the Donbass and recapture the Crimea. Obviously, in the Crimean direction, the Ukrainian army will be defeated. In the Donbas, options are possible: the defeat of the militias, the defeat of the Ukrainian army (if Russia helps) or the new protracted meat grinder. At the same time, the West wins in any case — the Russians kill the Russians, reducing the total potential. At the same time, Turkey may try to organize an uprising of the Crimean Tatars. Ankara may try to cause a new war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Karabakh, which will divert Russia's attention to the Caucasus.

For its part, Russia can bet on the Kurds in Syria and Turkey itself. Officially recognize the need to create an independent Kurdistan in Turkey. Support the Kurdish movement with expert advisors, weapons and equipment.

It should be noted that, apparently, Moscow understands all the danger of the situation, and especially the Crimean direction. So, serious exercises are going on in the Crimea. On the peninsula, as part of a surprise check, fighter aircraft were raised into the air, alerted units of anti-aircraft missile forces, the Russian Defense Ministry said. The Chief of the General Staff, Army General Valery Gerasimov, checked the organization of the work of the control points of the 31 Air Defense Division in the course of repelling a massive missile and air strike of a conditional enemy. According to the Minister of Defense of Russia Sergey Shoigu: "The force grouping in the Crimea has been strengthened, the aviation and air defense forces are ready to repel a massive air strike of a conditional enemy."

Thus, Turkey can bring the already started Third World War to a higher level.
Author:
Articles from this series:
On the prospects of Turkey in the Fourth World War
282 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Yak-3P
    Yak-3P 12 February 2016 06: 43
    0
    paranoia .. if the batch starts then the Turkish bases will be hit by ordinary cr and there live pee-pee-dos, they have losses and then we'll see .. they will start firing from guns or not ..
    1. domokl
      domokl 12 February 2016 07: 20
      49
      If one on one
      1. The Turkish fleet will lose up to 50% of its composition (ships, coastal bases, personnel, air groups, etc.) in a week. With our losses in 25-30%
      2.Turkey aviation will be neutralized by strikes of the Kyrgyz Republic and Russian aviation.Airdromes in Syria are now unavailable for the Turkish Air Force
      3. The author underestimated the capabilities of the Syrian army in a land war. After neutralizing the Turkish Air Force, the Syrians can calmly confront the powerful Turkish army. The reason is that the Turks cannot advance along the entire front. an attack can go only on a small section of the border.
      In general, one can consider the winning option for Turkey only in alliance with NATO, the United States and the monarchies of the Arabs. But this is a world war.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 08: 02
        19
        Quote: domokl
        2. Turkey’s aviation will be neutralized by strikes of the Kyrgyz Republic and Russian aviation

        Hi Sanya! You somehow separated flies from cutlets not quite correctly. Yes, and the author walks crookedly. Turkey alone will not go, along with the Saudis and hell knows who. Arabs as warriors, of course, are still those. But nonetheless, the Saudis are armed with about 200 F 15 various modifications, and it seems that they bought about 100 Taifuns or Tornadoes from the Angles. Well, F 16 and how much is there. + Arab Emirates is another 250-300 aircraft.
        In short, the devil knows what all this will result in.
        1. just exp
          just exp 12 February 2016 09: 54
          +3
          The Saudis are of the order of 200 F 15 of various modifications, and it seems that they bought about 100 Taifuns or Tornadoes from the Angles. Well, there are some F 16 and well. + Arab Emirates is another 250-300 aircraft.

          Well, there’s another question: how many of these hundreds of planes will be able to take off after calibrating their airfields.
          1. silver_roman
            silver_roman 12 February 2016 15: 12
            +4
            why can't they take off?
            they will commit aggression. the forces participating in the attack will be raised in advance, the question is already where they will land, and not where and how to take off.
            and about the state of these F-16s, so they kind of went through a serious upgrade. so there’s no option to hope that they will not take off corny!
        2. NIKNN
          NIKNN 12 February 2016 12: 19
          +5
          As a result, Moscow will be forced to abandon nuclear weapons


          This is what a fright?
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Quote: domokl
          2. Turkey’s aviation will be neutralized by strikes of the Kyrgyz Republic and Russian aviation

          Hi Sanya! You somehow separated flies from cutlets not quite correctly. Yes, and the author walks crookedly. Turkey alone will not go, along with the Saudis and hell knows who. Arabs as warriors, of course, are still those. But nonetheless, the Saudis are armed with about 200 F 15 various modifications, and it seems that they bought about 100 Taifuns or Tornadoes from the Angles. Well, F 16 and how much is there. + Arab Emirates is another 250-300 aircraft.
          In short, the devil knows what all this will result in.

          Yes, but it must be taken into account that our planes have a minimum in Syria, and the rest of our aerospace forces will have to strike in Russia ..., here, like the fifth paragraph of NATO’s charter, it’s skidding ... and NATO is not very eager to to participate in the conflict with Russia ..., the point is not from the armor ... request
          minus the author (but no offense, I hope to usefully and have a chance to read the masterpiece of analytics and be proud). The analysis is weak, such as at the top, but the analysis itself is not there ... request Everything is somehow at the "maybe" level.
        3. alecsis69
          alecsis69 14 February 2016 15: 04
          +1
          Somehow everyone forgot about Iran. He may not be our friend, but for Turkey, and especially for KSA, he’s definitely an enemy. And at the same time, the Persians are well aware that the war against Assad is a war against them. Yes, they have a bad situation with modern weapons, but if kneading starts, then no one will look at UN sanctions. And Iran is capable of paralyzing the entire Persian Gulf, if not controlling it. Moreover, to activate Shiites not only in Yemen, but also in the KSA itself.
      2. Lyapis
        Lyapis 12 February 2016 10: 23
        +6
        The author underestimated the capabilities of the Syrian army in a land war. After neutralizing the Turkish Air Force, the Syrians can calmly confront the powerful Turkish army.

        The author correctly pointed out that without Russian intervention, Assad’s troops would have lasted for months. By themselves, they could hardly restrain IS and other broads. Even the Syrian attack that we have now, in fact, is provided with 4 months of work of our aircraft and the help of the Iranians and Hezbollah.
        And now look at the army of Turkey, according to its strength, it is among the tens of the strongest. Add to this the Saudis. Plus, if something happens, you should wait for the activation of the same Islamists in Syria itself.
        There are no chances to solve such a problem with fifty Russian planes.
        We don’t even want to think that we’ll start an open war with Turkey, too gloomy prospects ...
        1. Foxmara
          Foxmara 12 February 2016 19: 36
          +4
          Quote: Lyapis
          And now look at the army of Turkey, according to its strength, it is among the tens of the strongest.

          and can not cope with the Kurds in their territory?
          that is, of course, strong, the strongest in BV. without b. But, in doubt. The Saudis cannot deal with Yemen. It’s also like a strong army, advisers from the USA, at least you eat weapons, but there’s no sense.
          1. Lyapis
            Lyapis 13 February 2016 03: 08
            +1
            Remember Chechnya in Russia, Ireland in Great Britain, the African colonies of France ... It’s hard to doubt the strength of these states, but they have been haemo-hauled in these conflicts for decades. Turkey from the same series and the fact that the Kurdish problem is not solved is most likely only a temporary phenomenon.
            And about the Saudis agree. But the Syrian army, however, is also not a standard of resilience ...
            1. Foxmara
              Foxmara 13 February 2016 05: 47
              +2
              Chechnya .. it was a war of betrayals. the leadership surrendered all military victories, in those cases when the Czechs were heavily crowded - they agreed through the top leadership and there was an order - to leave, to stop. The country was falling apart successfully and calling our army a strong language did not turn. All who could - mowed down. It was possible to write a report on the transfer to a hot spot .. to avoid terrible hazing. He served, I remember these years.
        2. cheguevarazhiv
          cheguevarazhiv 19 February 2016 14: 02
          0
          Do you think that only inveterate nationalists sit in the military tip of Turkey, even after the purge of Erdogan? I doubt it very much. I think that if the Turkish Armed Forces get much in tinsel, then a military junta is just around the corner and they have experience. The Saudis at one time Sadama were afraid like fire, since several clashes with the ARMY and not with the gangs showed the insolvency of their armed forces. Loss of combat capability of their Air Force or a strong weakening will automatically lead to defeat in the Yemeni direction with all the consequences, and there is already a reason for the United States to think about whether they need something like an IG at their gas station (CA, UAE, Qatar)?
      3. mishaia_23
        mishaia_23 12 February 2016 11: 14
        +4
        And most importantly, the Turkish army and the army of Saudi Arabia do not have that combat experience, even if there are enough weapons and personnel, like the Syrian ...
        There is no incentive like Syria ... We defend our homeland
        And the chair near Erdogan is already swinging ...
        1. Lyapis
          Lyapis 12 February 2016 12: 22
          +3
          And most importantly, the Turkish army and the army of Saudi Arabia do not have that combat experience

          You are joking?
          The Saudis have been bickering with the Hussites for several months in Yemen. Not very successful, but nonetheless ...
          The Turks, for the past few decades, have been living in a state of permanent conflict with the Kurds. And in Syria itself they have long been fighting.
          So they have enough experience.
          There is no incentive like Syria ... We defend our homeland

          Well here you can argue ...
          It is enough to understand at least that the bulk of the IS militants and the opposition in Syria are ... the Syrians themselves. Moreover, not just the Syrians, but the former military SAA (the notorious "Coastal Brigade" for example).
          So the patriotism and motivation of the Syrians is directly dependent on their military successes.
          Do not forget that a significant part of Assad’s troops are the militia and recently mobilized citizens.
        2. Navy7981
          Navy7981 12 February 2016 13: 39
          +3
          Quote: mishaia_23
          And most importantly, the Turkish army and the army of Saudi Arabia do not have that combat experience, even if there are enough weapons and personnel, like the Syrian ...
          There is no incentive like Syria ... We defend our homeland
          And the chair near Erdogan is already swinging ...

          Emotionally.
          But the question here is another, general and fundamental method of training the armed forces. To the work of headquarters and originality (excuse me for such a non-military term, I mean the ability of commanders to quickly find and put into practice non-standard solutions) of ideas. Arabs with serious damage will not be able to fight. This is not my personal cheer !!! they are weak and will certainly lose. No, they just quickly switch from a state of euphoria with luck, to a state of panic with serious losses. The Turks, in principle, are not bad soldiers, which they have repeatedly demonstrated, but alas, in the originality, it will not go further than shitting from the quiet, and working according to templates in a modern war will not work. I think their self-confidence will fail them. Both those and others.
      4. Rus2012
        Rus2012 12 February 2016 12: 29
        +1
        The problem is that NATO can stand up for Turkey. Then the NATO ship grouping will enter the Black Sea as part of more than 2 − 3 ship strike groups

        ... who wrote this nonsense ?!

        At the slightest threat, the passage from the straits is mined! (remember 08.08.08, when there was a real need to close the straits from the 6th fleet, then the Black Sea Fleet was ready to do it. "Moskva" stood on the roadstead of Novorossiysk, taking aim at the entire space of the World Cup) And no AUG-UG will be able to pass, all the more under the fire of "Granites" and "Bastions"!
        1. kote119
          kote119 12 February 2016 12: 33
          +1
          Where do granites appear at the Black Sea Fleet?
          1. Rus2012
            Rus2012 12 February 2016 12: 43
            +2
            Quote: kote119
            Where do granites appear at the Black Sea Fleet?

            on the back side. No one has yet canceled shock nuclear submarines ...
        2. Lyapis
          Lyapis 12 February 2016 12: 36
          -5
          At the slightest threat, passage from the straits is mined!

          Well, yes ... the NATO people do not know how to mine ...
          Or another option: some kind of fragile NATO boat is being blown up on a mine. And under the pretext of such blatant aggression on the part of the Russians, we, cheerfully and fervently hit the face of the whole North Atlantic bloc at once. wassat
          1. Rus2012
            Rus2012 12 February 2016 12: 44
            +3
            Quote: Lyapis
            of such blatant aggression on the part of the Russians, we, cheerfully and fervently hit the face of the whole North Atlantic bloc at once

            ... poke your paws in advance to the top and go give up!
            1. Lyapis
              Lyapis 12 February 2016 12: 57
              -9
              ... tyk, let's right now blow up all of our nuclear weapons. Though we die, we’ll send the damned Amyrians to the other world! Good idea, well ...
              1. Boa kaa
                Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 08
                +2
                Quote: Lyapis
                send damned Amyrikans to the next world!
                I like this offer more!
                And about suicide - forget it completely !!!
          2. TOR2
            TOR2 12 February 2016 19: 04
            +4
            Quote: Lyapis
            Well, yes ... the NATO people do not know how to clear ..

            Do you think it's easy?
            October 1950 The armada of American ships, which included battleships and aircraft carriers, moved to the North Korean port of Wonsan to land in the corps in order to surround the North Korean army. By that time, North Korea had neither warships, nor aircraft, and the USSR and the PRC had not yet intervened in the conflict. The landing operation went without a hitch, as in exercises. But then everything went wrong, the Yankees stumbled upon the mines that the Koreans fired from the fishing junks. The Americans began intensive trawling. Five minesweepers died in mines, several minesweepers and two destroyers received heavy damage.
            1. Lyapis
              Lyapis 13 February 2016 02: 54
              -2
              Do you think it's easy?

              Do you think the Americans go clinical * you and crookers who are not able to learn from their mistakes?
          3. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 06
            +1
            Quote: Lyapis
            And under the pretext of such blatant aggression on the part of the Russians, we, cheerfully and fervently hit the face of the whole North Atlantic bloc at once.

            Maybe...
            But I’m not even a gram sure that they are ready to subscribe to the big war of annihilation!
            And there is no unity in "NATA" for a long time. If not for Uncle Sam, they would have fled long ago, or, at worst, transformed into EuroNATO.
            1. andj61
              andj61 12 February 2016 23: 20
              0
              Quote: Boa constrictor KAA
              But I’m not even a gram sure that they are ready to subscribe to the big war of annihilation!

              But I’m not sure that Russia is ready to subscribe to a big war of annihilation .. Moreover, because of Turkey. So here we are all not interested in this. A war of annihilation will only be in case of a threat to the existence of Russia.
              1. abrakadabre
                abrakadabre 12 February 2016 23: 24
                0
                But Russia does not have much room for maneuver. And, as our guarantor says: If a fight is inevitable ...
              2. alecsis69
                alecsis69 14 February 2016 15: 06
                +1
                The defeat with Syria, in itself, is a threat to the existence of Russia.
            2. Lyapis
              Lyapis 13 February 2016 02: 57
              0
              But I’m not even a gram sure that they are ready to subscribe to the big war of annihilation!
              And there is no unity in "NATA" for a long time.

              So no one talks about the war of annihilation. Beating can be done without using nuclear weapons.
              Well, at the expense of cohesion, it doesn’t unite as a common enemy. And many have accounts for us ...
          4. Weyland
            Weyland 12 February 2016 23: 46
            -1
            Quote: Lyapis
            And under the pretext of such blatant aggression on the part of the Russians, we, cheerfully and fervently hit the face of the entire North Atlantic bloc at once


            As fun and provocatively as Hitler in the 1939m. laughing
            1. Lyapis
              Lyapis 13 February 2016 02: 59
              0
              Maybe like in 1939, or maybe like in 1945., to be honest, I don’t want to check ... sad
              1. Weyland
                Weyland 13 February 2016 15: 02
                0
                Quote: Lyapis
                or maybe in 1945,


                In the Ardennes? laughing
              2. The comment was deleted.
          5. The comment was deleted.
          6. cheguevarazhiv
            cheguevarazhiv 19 February 2016 14: 05
            0
            Don’t forget about the returning club ... And then it hurts boldly to hand out slaps
          7. cheguevarazhiv
            cheguevarazhiv 19 February 2016 14: 09
            0
            Quote: Lyapis
            Well, yes ... the NATO people do not know how to mine ...

            But what about the United States Marine Corps and stood in Iraq .. because there were mines, there was nothing at all and the ancient modifications. The point was played since no admiral gave a 100% guarantee. A wreck like Tarawa will cause very big questions in the Senate of Tan
      5. boec
        boec 12 February 2016 15: 08
        +3
        I agree, I think it is necessary to separate 2 options, Turkey alone or with its allies, i.e. It’s a local conflict on the border or on the territory of Syria, or probably only an attack on the RF Armed Forces bases on land and at sea.
        With the first option, strict answers to provocations, and in the second, sorry, this is really a world warrior. The question is which missiles can Turkey use? They themselves do not know. Ground option, it seems to me only to scare as a political option who attacks and warns before that. (Cases only with provocations)
      6. alex_V15
        alex_V15 13 February 2016 10: 50
        0
        Are you sure that we will have losses? They will beat from our territory. And there will be no losses.
        And then - the landing in the right places.
        Yes there - immediately there will be rebellions against Erdogan!
        Losses will be, but not ours. Sympathizing. I wish there were none.
        Our base in Syria still needs to be taken. And she is very fortified.
        Americans may intervene, shoot (not the fact that in us), but immediately after one or two shots - will wash off. They no longer have money for anything.
        If they do not fight for the inner regions of Turkey, we will have no problems.
        If at all there will be war, then the Kurds and other weapons will be delivered openly and practically any. And in the Donbass - too.
        Plus - Greeks and Armenians will definitely participate. Let not directly.
        It is not excluded the hidden participation of the "Latin wind" - volunteers from there.
        Neither Cubans nor Venezuelans will refuse to fire at their own. Perhaps the participation of Brazilians and Argentines. China and India are a big question mark. Iran is already completely there in Syria. And it will be - already openly and fully. He also has something to take.
        Because it will not care. If we win - we will judge the freaks. Not us.
      7. Alekseev
        Alekseev 13 February 2016 18: 31
        0
        Quote: domokl
        .Author underestimated

        The author’s claims about tactical nuclear weapons are not clear.
        It is not clear why, he claims that if, say, Turkish troops striking at our forces on Syrian territory, a tactical nuclear weapon is hit, then, they say, the whole world will be outraged and force the Russian Federation to abandon this weapon. Why didn’t he become indignant after the American attacks not even on the troops, but on the cities?
        Yes, simply because, to hell with this indignation, it is useless.
        So here, no NATO will rush for the Turks and Saudis, destroyed by both vigorous and simple weapons. For stand up for them - expose yourself terrible danger.
        If they could, they would long ago have forced Russia to abandon everything.
        For us, too, the use of nuclear weapons is extremely unprofitable, but it is also impossible to give up a group in Syria ...
        But not everything is so gloomy. Both the combed Erdogan and the Saudis understand that not only in the case of the use of nuclear weapons, but also when hitting the ports, Istanbul with a conventional missile (about the straits) they risk losing their statehood in a modern way. And their own lives.
        They are afraid of us precisely because of nuclear weapons, and not because of dryers, SVP, KAB, etc.
        That's right, they’ll agree.
    2. Mera joota
      Mera joota 12 February 2016 08: 10
      0
      Quote: Yak-3P
      paranoia .. if the batch starts then the Turkish bases will be hit by ordinary cr and there live pee-pee-dos, they have losses and then we'll see .. they will start firing from guns or not ..

      Won't start
      Munich negotiators agree on ceasefire in Syria within a week

      Under the threat of a Turkish and Saudi invasion, Russia agreed on a ceasefire.
      This is to say censorship.
      1. nerd.su
        nerd.su 12 February 2016 11: 15
        +5
        Quote: Mera Joota
        "The parties to the negotiations in Munich agreed on a ceasefire in Syria within a week"
        Under the threat of a Turkish and Saudi invasion, Russia agreed on a ceasefire.
        This is to say censorship.

        This is just a headline. It's about a ceasefire plan. This is not a ceasefire at all. Russia has always insisted on a political decision. So this is the main thing. And the threats of invasion, military exercises in the Southern Military District are all the moves to create an advantageous negotiating position. And do not be naive that Russia and Bashar al-Assad will be allowed to start negotiations in a winning position. The United States strives for a draw, since it is not possible to take a more profitable one.
      2. Rus2012
        Rus2012 12 February 2016 12: 46
        +1
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Russia agreed on a ceasefire.

        "At the same time, the Russian Aerospace Forces - do not stop the BSHU" (c) Lavrov
    3. Shick
      Shick 12 February 2016 09: 28
      12
      yeahhhhhh ... survived, now we argue about whether we will win Turkey or not ...
      Who in the USSR would tell such a finger at the temple would twist ...
      1. Road runer
        Road runer 12 February 2016 10: 32
        13
        the dispute is not about whether we will defeat Turkey or not, there is practically no doubt about it. The dispute is about how to defeat this entire pack of wolves led by the United States. There is no definite answer here. And my opinion is that if they trample all of them from all sides, you will have to uncover the "Voevods", "Yars" and "Bulava"
      2. Azzzwer
        Azzzwer 12 February 2016 14: 06
        0
        Quote: Shick
        Who in the USSR would tell such a finger at the temple would twist ...
    4. max702
      max702 12 February 2016 15: 41
      +8
      At the same time, the calculations of some “patriotic” attacks of tactical nuclear weapons on Turkey can be immediately forgotten. Russia cannot be the first to use nuclear weapons in such a situation. Only during the invasion of the enemy army into the territory of Russia and the disastrous situation of the Russian Armed Forces. If Moscow applies tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey, then Russia will automatically be recorded in the "Resident Evil" ("Evil Empire"). The Russian Federation will become an outcast worse than the DPRK. The United States and NATO will receive the blessing of the whole world for a "crusade" to the East. As a result, Moscow will be forced to abandon nuclear weapons, and after that, the dismemberment of Russia is inevitable.
      This is epic nonsense! Everything is fundamentally the opposite! Just if Russia does not hesitate and gives in the teeth with a nuclear club, then EVERYONE will shut up! Without exceptions, not any sanctions, resident evil, Mordor and so on .. All this rhetoric is good as long as nothing threatens you, but when one such "courageous" flew in, so there is nothing to restore, the rest will do everything to avoid it .. THERE are well aware that it was THEIR actions that forced Russia to take extreme measures, and if they do not become impudent, then Russia will not resort to these means .. If you have a pistol and an enemy he has, they all talk to each other politely and accurately .. And now the partners have forgotten about the presence of a pistol, and especially doubt the ability to use it .. So if ours decide and do it quickly, efficiently and accurately, then everything will be fine, and world peace will be much closer than before the use of TNW ..
      1. Foxmara
        Foxmara 12 February 2016 19: 41
        +5
        moreover, the practice with the Japanese showed that the use of nuclear weapons makes the enemy an ally for the next 50-100 years.
      2. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 26
        +4
        Quote: max702
        All this rhetoric is good as long as nothing threatens you,
        What is most interesting - and there are historical examples ... The combined aggression of England, France, Israel against the Egyptian Empire in October 1956 was immediately stopped, it was worth the Union to declare its readiness to use nuclear weapons if they did not stop ...
        I think the message about delivering nuclear warheads to carriers and the statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry will be able to cool the hottest heads ... Europe will certainly get a little drunk, and the States will not get into a meat grinder without it ... It's not in the style of the Anglo-Saxons.
    5. mig29mks
      mig29mks 12 February 2016 17: 54
      +1
      Ankara's patience may be exhausted and then it will begin active actions in Syria. “We will be patient until a certain point, and then we will take the necessary measures. The number of a new wave of refugees may reach 600 thousand people, "and IF IT IS GOOD TO HIT THE TURKS, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF REFUGEES." ONE KINETICS WITHOUT A WAREHOUSE IN A RADIUS OF 15 KM WILL TURN EVERYTHING INTO DUST, SUCH 1,5 PIECES ON TURKS AND THEY'S MARTIAL SPIRIT WILL BE BROKEN!
      1. abrakadabre
        abrakadabre 12 February 2016 23: 18
        0
        You exaggerate the capabilities of a kinetic warhead from space. In order to turn everything into a radius of 1.5 km into dust with such a blow, you must have a weak asteroid in orbit. So 60-80 meters across. And this is a mass of hundreds of thousands of tons. Reduce the necessary mass by increasing the speed. But still, this is from the realm of fantasy for now.
      2. Boa kaa
        Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 37
        +1
        Quote: mig29mks
        WE HAVE A ROCKET WHICH FROM SPACE IS DROPING AT A SPEED OF 15THYS.KM / H
        Nuuuuu ... Anything can be ...
        I do not know how ROCKETS (?), But BBs fall at the speed of 5-6 Machs. Ceramics of blocks simply cannot withstand greater thermokinetic load ... Still, 12,6M yes
    6. Suvorov
      Suvorov 13 February 2016 01: 41
      0
      Quote: Yak-3P
      then we’ll see .. they will start firing from guns or not ..

      The statements of the Turks and Saudis about the beginning of the intervention in Syria are nothing more than an attempt by the West with its allies to "raise the stakes" in the Middle East "game". It is simply necessary to "scare" Russia and force it to be more accommodating in the negotiations on a Syrian settlement. So far, this has not been fully successful. Our, together with the Syrians and their allies, on the contrary, intensified the hostilities, trying to free the territories from terrorist groups as much as possible. Apparently, they understand that this "trend" is not forever and sooner or later they will have to start a "peace process". The Western coalition does not like this and they want to "slow down" the movement of Assad's army as much as possible in order to secure more favorable positions in the negotiations. No one will enter the troops yet, at least until Russia "allows". Everyone is preparing, but waiting for "concessions" from Putin. And the GDP has not given the go-ahead yet. But sooner or later he will have to do it. We will have to agree and give the rest of the “participants in the war against ISIS” a little “face saving” so that they too look “winners” in the eyes of their electorate and the “world community”. This is very typical for GDP, it always compromises when it is necessary to “finish beautifully” some “super important operation”. Why will this need to be done? Without this, the West will not recognize the results of this "operation". And we need a result in the form of a "settlement in Syria", where we will be among those who will determine the "future" of this country. With regard to a possible international conflict: it is possible if one of the parties "lose their nerves." It can start against the will of the parties. Especially with such "allies" of NATO countries as Erdogan and Poroshenko. But in any case, there will be no use of nuclear weapons until the conflict affects the main territories of "big players" such as the United States, Russia, old Europe. A local conflict can take place anywhere: at sea, in the air, in Syria, Turkey, Transnistria, the Baltic states, the Middle East, even in the Crimea, Donbas and Ukraine (as territories of potential conflicts), it can “affect” Poland, Romania and Kaliningrad area, but should not "go beyond the zones under discussion," then nuclear weapons will not be used by either side. Surely Lavrov and Kerry "agreed" on this, thereby marking the "zones of influence" beyond which the conflict should not "go". It's not for nothing that they spend hours discussing something ... Thus, there will be no final "defeat" for either side, which means there is no need to "destroy the whole world" ...
    7. 11 black
      11 black 14 February 2016 19: 41
      0
      Quote: domokl
      Leaving Syria is quite possible, especially considering the situation with Ukraine and the Donbass. After all, Moscow had every opportunity to reunite with Russia not only the Crimea, but also the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, and if desired, the whole of southeastern Ukraine.

      Enlighten on this subject ...

      Quote: Yak-3P
      In general, given the isolation of the Syrian theater from Russia, Turkey has a chance of a blitzkrieg in relation to our group. However, Russia has shown that not everything is so simple.

      It is even more difficult than you imagine - firstly, a strike from an MLRS on Khmeimim is useless, since the base is probably protected by "Mercury", what it is we see here

      Secondly, the places are open there, and the Turks themselves will immediately fall under the MLRS fire upon invasion, but they don’t have anything like our system ...
      Quote: Yak-3P
      If a decision is made to support Syria, the question arises - how?

      As an option - the simultaneous strike of the Caspian flotilla, the Black Sea Fleet and the 10-12 Tu-160 or 20-30 Tu-95 X101 missiles from a safe distance to the main Turkish airfields, and this is a minimum volley (excluding Tu-95) in 180-200 missiles , when 10 missiles are consumed at the airfield, we’ll cover the bases for the 18-20 volley, which is very painful
      Regarding the entry into the US war, they won’t do it, because if they had confidence in their victory they would have attacked a long time ago. Any surface group in the Black Sea is doomed to destruction by coastal anti-ship systems and long-range aviation - Tu-22
      Saudi Arabia can be "besieged" with one blow of the KR on their oil wells - the same salvo in the same scheme of 200 missiles at a consumption of 2-3 missiles per well is 100-70 burned out wells, and it is impossible to extinguish a burning well ...
      Yes, and I think that the "Caliber-K" (K - container) complex has long been silent until the deadline - in fact, there is no reason for the Russian Federation not to put into service a couple of divisions of such systems, for example, in Tartus

      In general, the article is sheer cowardice and alarmism - no one offers hatred - but to besiege Arabia and Herdogan is the maximum 800KR
  2. fa2998
    fa2998 12 February 2016 07: 04
    -27 qualifying.
    The author probably forgot that Turkey is a member of NATO, and takes a strategic position-straits, a bridge to Asia. NATO partners will not leave it. Want to fight with NATO! hi
    1. domokl
      domokl 12 February 2016 07: 14
      12
      The author may have forgotten. But you are also wrong. The Secretary General of the ATO clearly in Brussels said recently, in Syria, NATO under ANY conditions is not involved ...
      But in general, I also did not really like the analysis ...
      1. fa2998
        fa2998 12 February 2016 07: 22
        -12 qualifying.
        I’m talking about the war between Russia and Turkey! And no matter in what strategic direction it is being fought — Syria, the Black and Mediterranean Sea, Transcaucasia. NATO will intervene! hi
        1. domokl
          domokl 12 February 2016 07: 40
          10
          Quote: fa2998
          I’m talking about the war between Russia and Turkey!

          Quote: fa2998
          .Want to fight with NATO!

          So I did not read your words correctly. I repeat, Stoltenberg said in Brussels that Erdogan would not receive support from NATO in the fight against Russia, in particular in Syria.
          1. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 12 February 2016 09: 17
            -4
            Quote: domokl
            Stoltenberg said in Brussels that Erdogan would not receive support from NATO in the fight against Russia, in particular in Syria.

            And if in Syria we pile on them, and move on to the territory of Turkey?
            1. Boa kaa
              Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 43
              +4
              Quote: Ingvar 72
              And if in Syria we pile on them, and move on to the territory of Turkey?

              In Syria, you can pile on - and it will be legal (We are there at the invitation of a legally elected government, but someone did not call on the Turks - therefore they are interventionists).
              But if we climb into Turkey, the situation will turn to 180 *.
              1. Hitrovan07
                Hitrovan07 13 February 2016 09: 55
                +1
                in 1945 it was not necessary to take Berlin ???
        2. Maks-80
          Maks-80 12 February 2016 09: 04
          +8
          Obama clearly said that he is not going to get into any new war in the Middle East. And do not speak for all of NATO. Firstly, there decisions are made for a very long time and not agile. Consensus of all members required. And secondly, the EU (for the most part) is not going to die for Erdogan who has lost his mind.
          1. jetfors_84
            jetfors_84 12 February 2016 09: 23
            +6
            I wanted to say the same thing. Who needs to harness for the Turks? They are not taken to the EU and then die. Moreover, a war from the territory of Syria can come to Europe .... and this is pure Europe on .. I do not need
          2. sa-ag
            sa-ag 12 February 2016 12: 00
            +3
            Quote: Maks-80
            And secondly, the EU (for the most part) is not going to die for Erdogan who has lost his mind.

            And here is a small choice or a lot of refugees from Erdogan, or EU assistance, I think the EU will choose the second
            1. Foxmara
              Foxmara 12 February 2016 19: 52
              +1
              refugees will be later, and they will snatch lyuley at once. What do you think the EU will choose? As usual - a cowardly tactic, to pretend that there is no problem. Screaming out loud - you and Misha, oh, Erdogan and sit upright.
          3. Ingvar 72
            Ingvar 72 12 February 2016 13: 31
            +2
            Quote: Maks-80
            Obama clearly said that he is not going to get into any new war in the Middle East.

            Politicians say a lot, but do it their own way. The cession of the victory of Russia will significantly reduce the influence of the West in the East, and they will not allow this. The history of all the Russo-Turkish wars proves this. They will help not directly, but with weapons and ideologically.
        3. Foxmara
          Foxmara 12 February 2016 19: 48
          +2
          Quote: fa2998
          NATO will intervene!

          True? At first glance, NATO is a big and strong redneck, but in reality there are several dozen deadheads with one godfather. And in the event of "aggression" they may well begin to hide behind each other, the Balts expect that the US will fight for them, the Germans will fight the Balts, the speed of mobilization there has seriously fallen, but US does not want to fight on their own, perhaps this should be borne in mind immediately. And without them it’s zilch. ALL NATO countries have cut military spending and equipment - after all, the USSR is no more. Recall when our cruiser suddenly sailed to the shores of England - it was discovered Fishermen... And I had to urgently tear off the ship from the other side in order to "expel" the "foe". For a couple of days he patiently waited for the re-run))
      2. smel
        smel 12 February 2016 07: 42
        +8
        And I liked it. The author is a fine fellow, although at the end of the article he "suffered". His assessments are largely controversial, especially about the state of forces and means, and this is understandable - VO is not a place for disclosing everything and everyone. But the scenarios are quite real ... There is something to think about. thanks
        1. The comment was deleted.
        2. Nikolay K
          Nikolay K 12 February 2016 09: 11
          +8
          Oddly enough, I also liked Samsonov’s analysis. A scenario for Russia's withdrawal from Syria without a fight is possible, but unlikely. The scenario of a full-fledged war between NATO and Russia with an attack by an enemy of our territory is slightly more likely. Here, we see the use of nuclear weapons as quite real. The most likely variant of the Russian-Turkish / Arab confrontation, in which a blitzkrieg scenario can be considered, from both sides: Turkey does not want to fall under the blows of our air forces, which have proved their effectiveness, and even covered by air defense, Russia can hope to win the confrontation with Turkey ONLY subject to the rapid destruction of the air defense system, aviation and possibly the navy of the enemy as soon as possible before the intelligible reaction of the allies from the NATO bloc. This scenario is not possible without a blitzkrieg, but now we clearly lack strength for it, given the limited Syrian contingent and problems with logistics.
          Scenarios of a protracted hybrid war are still very likely, but they are extremely difficult to predict.
          1. sa-ag
            sa-ag 12 February 2016 12: 01
            +3
            Quote: Nikolai K
            A scenario for Russia's withdrawal from Syria without a fight is possible, but unlikely.

            What ended the Caribbean crisis?
            1. Boatsman_Palych
              Boatsman_Palych 12 February 2016 13: 53
              14
              The Cuban Missile Crisis ended with the VICTORY of the USSR - contrary to the popular opinion of the Pin.dos. For the withdrawal of our missiles from Cuba, we received: 1) The withdrawal of Jupiter missiles from Turkey, the flight time of which guaranteed a disarming strike at that time; 2) a guarantee of non-aggression against our strategic ally Kuba; 3) the Americans, who for the FIRST time felt the real threat of war on their territory and the HORROR at the thought of this, became much less impudent and more accommodating - which led to the abandonment of thoughts of solving the problem with the USSR by force.
            2. Nikolay K
              Nikolay K 13 February 2016 06: 28
              -4
              The fact that we removed our missiles from Cuba, and the United States from Europe. A worthy draw in which we defended ourselves.
          2. Shark Lover
            Shark Lover 12 February 2016 12: 45
            +2
            Problems with logistics are obvious, but before the start of the actions of the Aerospace Forces, no one thought at all that they (the Aerospace Forces) would be there so quickly, at least in the media and discussions no one spoke about this, everyone thought about Ukraine. The media gives what can and should be given, no one knows what and how is planned now (I'm talking about the RF Ministry of Defense). How many of us knew about the concentration of "green men?" I would very much like to think that the top management does not think in stereotypes, but puts out the most obvious steps in the media. The most delusional example: why cannot, through negligence, tear up a warehouse with nuclear weapons on the territory, because, as VVP said about Crimea, the GRU special forces know how and what need to do. The unpredictability and strategic thinking of the GDP, of course, is impressive, I hope this will affect, affect foreign and, especially, domestic policy, because under the threat of an invasion of the territory of the Russian Federation, you can clean up everything and everyone.
          3. Boa kaa
            Boa kaa 13 February 2016 00: 28
            +3
            Quote: Nikolai K
            The most likely option

            The simultaneous opening of "several fronts": the Saudis in the west, the Turks in the north, the Ukrainians in Little Russia, the Malanians in Transnistria, plus something to stir up in Central Asia, and in Abkhazia and the North Caucasus. And also set Azerov and Armenians against each other. And so that everyone would ask the Russians for help ... This is Uncle Sam's dream!
            And with GB themselves to add fuel to the fire in the form of PMCs and help with weapons, money ... And also throw the white-tape "guard" into the assault of the hated GB-shny regime, and block all trade and economic channels ... and lower oil to $ 8 ...
            The main thing is to deprive the enemy of the ability to maneuver forces between the theater of operations. And here we quickly realize that 800tys is not enough in all directions! And the Airborne Forces everywhere, no matter how hard they try, to keep up.
          4. Maks-80
            Maks-80 16 February 2016 10: 32
            0
            Cruise and ballistic missiles do not need any logistics :)
        3. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa 12 February 2016 23: 59
          +2
          Quote: smel
          But the scenarios are quite real ... There is something to think about. thanks
          "Real" scenarios are played out (in the sense of being scrolled) in the situational decision-making room by the country's top military-political leadership. And in the country's Defense Center, all these options are calculated and put "on the notes" of operational and strategic decisions. And as a recommendation, they return to where they lay on the music stand of the military-strategic kitchen ...
      3. katalonec2014
        katalonec2014 12 February 2016 07: 50
        +3
        Again, the author mentioned the defeat of the Ukrainian group in the Crimean direction, and at the same time predicted the defeat of the DNI and LNR troops, and this is in principle ruled out, since the current Ukrainian army is not able to wage war on two fronts.
      4. Misha Honest
        Misha Honest 12 February 2016 10: 45
        +2
        Quote: domokl
        The author may have forgotten. But you are also wrong. The Secretary General of the ATO clearly in Brussels said recently, in Syria, NATO under ANY conditions is not involved ...
        But in general, I also did not really like the analysis ...

        Do you trust NATO Secretary General unconditionally? laughing Stoltenberg is a weather vane man! In the event of a war between Russia and Turkey, NATO will most likely wait while we are exhausting each other with the Turks, and then they will deliver one crushing blow to us (I personally, if I were in their place, I would have done so). For us, in any case, there will be a stalemate if the Turks cross the borders of Syria ... We'll have to turn around like snakes in a frying pan.
        And about the use of nuclear weapons, I basically agree with the author. If the former applies it, the whole world will really take up arms against us. I do not think that our leadership will do this. Although, to be honest, I would have laid one tactical nuclear charge on the border between Turkey and Syria - and then let them prove that they did not bring the Turks with them.
        1. Boatsman_Palych
          Boatsman_Palych 12 February 2016 14: 03
          +5
          [quote = Misha Honest] [quote = domokl] Auth. If the former applies it, the whole world will really take up arms against us. I do not think that our leadership will do this. [/ Quote]

          First, the United States and its henchmen are not the whole world. Secondly, the whole "this world" has taken up arms against us. Instead of war, we got both shame and war. Thirdly, the use of nuclear weapons will not be required when declaring that in the event of an invasion of Nata into the Black Sea, and even more so the Crimea, tactical nuclear weapons WILL be used. And what the "partners" will water with mud - so they always watered, watered and will water. How long can you look back at THEM?
          1. Misha Honest
            Misha Honest 12 February 2016 14: 49
            -2
            Quote: Boatswain_Palych
            First, the United States and its henchmen are not the whole world.

            Do you think that China and Hindus will be happy if we begin to use nuclear weapons?
            Quote: Boatswain_Palych
            Secondly, the whole "this world" has taken up arms against us.

            This is Europe + USA + Japan (and something not very confident) + Australia and New Zealand. I already know that - thanks.
            Quote: Boatswain_Palych
            Instead of war, we got both shame and war.

            Please specify what is a shame?
            Quote: Boatswain_Palych
            Thirdly, the use of nuclear weapons will not be required when declaring that in the event of an invasion of Nata into the Black Sea, and even more so the Crimea, tactical nuclear weapons WILL be used. And what the "partners" will water with mud - so they always watered, watered and will water. How long can you look back at THEM?

            Do you think that NATO is such a sucker that they believe that we are nuclear weapons right away, if that applies ?! Then I'm sorry, but you are stupid. NW - will be used ONLY in a pinch, but they will try to prevent it!
            Please do not consider that in NATO only suckers and fools are sitting! They all know and count perfectly.
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. Hitrovan07
          Hitrovan07 13 February 2016 09: 56
          +1
          Stupid - remember who was the first to use nuclear weapons.
          And what, where was your "militia world".
    2. andre
      andre 12 February 2016 07: 40
      +5
      To start a war, eggs are needed! And not all current rulers have them.
      1. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 12 February 2016 08: 42
        12
        In order not to start a war, brains are needed. And not all current rulers have them either.
    3. Siberian38
      Siberian38 12 February 2016 08: 51
      -3
      Wipe yourself and get down on a quiet one? And for courage, they were awarded the courageous! Change the picture coward !!!
    4. Kum
      Kum 12 February 2016 08: 56
      -4
      Everything will depend on what Moscow will do. If Putin decides to launch a nuclear strike on Turkey, no NATO will risk daring to attack Russia, because in this case, Russian missiles will erase the US into dust. If Putin begins to mumble and doesn’t dare to use nuclear weapons, this will entail a war with NATO, in which Russia has no chance. This will be the end for Putin and his ministers, the Russian army drowned in blood and the defeat in the war, the people will not forgive, and perhaps for the Russian Federation, which is divided like the USSR.
    5. tilovaykrisa
      tilovaykrisa 12 February 2016 09: 42
      +6
      We’ll definitely fight, so the whole world is in ruin, but later.
    6. inpu
      inpu 12 February 2016 10: 56
      +9
      Quote: fa2998
      The author probably forgot that Turkey is a member of NATO, and takes a strategic position-straits, a bridge to Asia. NATO partners will not leave it. Want to fight with NATO! hi

      Formally, according to the organization’s charter, if Turkey unleashes a war, then this is Turkey’s problem.
      Therefore, if the partners want to otmazyvatsya, then the reason to fade away will not even need to be searched.
    7. the most important
      the most important 12 February 2016 11: 43
      +4
      Quote: fa2998
      The author probably forgot that Turkey is a member of NATO, and takes a strategic position-straits, a bridge to Asia. NATO partners will not leave it. Want to fight with NATO!

      First, Russia retreated to Ukraine .. now there is a panicky moan that NATO will intercede (will die) for Turkey ... and tomorrow the Estonian ambassador to the Kremlin will come forward and demand the surrender of nuclear weapons! Otherwise !!!! all NATO !!! He will intercede for Estonia !!! Maybe already stop retreating ???
    8. Rus2012
      Rus2012 12 February 2016 12: 47
      +4
      Quote: fa2998
      Want to fight with NATO!

      ... we don’t want, BUT We will if necessary!
    9. Pilat2009
      Pilat2009 12 February 2016 16: 53
      +1
      Quote: fa2998
      NATO partners will not leave her.

      If the Turks start first, then not a fact. Europeans have something to lose
    10. Weyland
      Weyland 13 February 2016 00: 00
      +2
      Quote: fa2998
      NATO partners will not leave her. Want to fight with NATO!


      In 1939, the Poles turned on the Germans because they were sure - "the allies will not leave us!" laughing
    11. Hitrovan07
      Hitrovan07 13 February 2016 09: 54
      0
      In the case of a similar attack by the Georgians in 2008 - YES we want.
      And you ?
  3. PSih2097
    PSih2097 12 February 2016 07: 06
    +2
    In general, taking into account the isolation of the Syrian theater from Russia, Turkey has a chance of a blitzkrieg in relation to our group.

    on the photo GRKR "Moscow" on which four "Volcanoes" have a head of 350 Kt, the use of which does not require a suitcase, nor the permission of the President, nor the Minister of Defense. The same applies to the "Varyag" ...
    1. igorka357
      igorka357 12 February 2016 07: 17
      +3
      Are you either confusing something, or not wisely, the P-1000 anti-ship complex, this is the first ... the second about your "kt", what is it generally ... kilotons ...? Remember, the use of any types of nuclear weapons requires the permission of the Supreme, be it strategic or tactical! Otherwise, I agree, just ours will hammer the Turks of the Kyrgyz Republic, but unfortunately the Turks will have time to destroy our group in the SAR!
      1. PSih2097
        PSih2097 12 February 2016 07: 22
        +3
        Quote: igorka357
        You are either confusing something, or multiplied not good

        you don’t know ... Read, read and read again and may you be happy ...
        Quote: igorka357
        Remember, the use of any kind of nuclear weapons requires the permission of the supreme, whether strategic or tactical!

        Seriously? I agree with the strategists, everything else remains on the conscience of the ship or KUG commander ...
        Quote: igorka357
        P-1000 anti-ship complex,

        and because of this, is he unable to work on the earth?
        1. Mera joota
          Mera joota 12 February 2016 08: 12
          +3
          Quote: PSih2097
          and because of this, is he unable to work on the earth?

          You have no idea what the P-1000 anti-ship missile is, read about the guidance system of this missile.
        2. donavi49
          donavi49 12 February 2016 09: 06
          +5
          Moscow is now disassembling at home and is preparing to repair the current one.
          In SM - Varangian.

          Its anti-ship missiles cannot be used for areal ground targets. Typical ground work of P-500, P-700, P-1000 and Progress-M missiles is a big target, for example, the Samsun / Izmir port or a factory, or a radio-contrast target in an open field. In this case, the defeat is provided only by SBN, there is no accuracy at a land mine.

          Only new anti-ship missiles, for example X-35, have a full-fledged bypass option, with fairly good accuracy of work on the ground.
        3. Boa kaa
          Boa kaa 13 February 2016 00: 52
          +1
          Quote: PSih2097
          I agree with the strategists, everything else remains on the conscience of the ship or KUG commander ...
          You have a misconception about the threshold for deciding on the use of SBP, as well as the system for removing the lock code from the product ... hi
      2. alex-712
        alex-712 12 February 2016 08: 03
        +2
        They will succeed in time, but how much will they lose at the same time?
      3. Achilles
        Achilles 12 February 2016 10: 02
        +4
        Quote: igorka357
        For the rest I agree, just ours will be slaughtered by the Turks of the Kyrgyz Republic, but, unfortunately, the Turks will have time to destroy our group in the SAR!


        As far as I know, there is an electronic warfare system on our base,"Mercury" for example, for many kilometers it protects against a missile attack and all missiles itself are destroyed on approach to the target,"Vitebsk" deflects rockets"Lever arm" for example, it disables the enemy’s communications and navigation for several hundred kilometers, which means missiles will not be able to hit the target, Rubella 2 which blinds and stuns the enemy for thousands of square kilometers, in short covers the group of troops, "Khibina" provides protection of the aircraft from anti-aircraft and aviation weapons. In the case of the use of such systems, I think the Turks so simply will not destroy our base, especially in a short period of time
        1. sa-ag
          sa-ag 12 February 2016 12: 07
          +2
          Quote: Achilles
          Turks so simply will not destroy our base, especially in a short period of time

          For the MLRS, everything that you cited as a counteraction does not matter, because there is no electronics there
          1. Syrdon
            Syrdon 12 February 2016 13: 31
            0
            there is opposition, the system activates the fuses on approaching the target, it simply does not reach.
            1. Nord2015
              Nord2015 12 February 2016 22: 02
              0
              Quote: Syrdon

              there is opposition, the system activates the fuses on approaching the target, it simply does not reach

              it does not work on a contact fuse, there is pure mechanics.
          2. Hitrovan07
            Hitrovan07 13 February 2016 09: 58
            0
            In this case, even Allah will not save the Turks from a nuclear strike.
  4. Good cat
    Good cat 12 February 2016 07: 10
    +4
    The gut is thin at the yerdogan, to shout, to stir up water here is his element, one word-horizon does not see the bogeyman.
  5. ArcanAG
    ArcanAG 12 February 2016 07: 12
    +9
    However, the Novorossiya project was curtailed.

    What is this? Is Donetsk and Lugansk captured by the junta?
    Just went the other way. When Ukrainians must free their country as if by themselves.

    In this situation, nobody will be the first to use nuclear weapons.

    What is this? It will be very easy. If they were sure of the opposite, they would have started long ago.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 12 February 2016 12: 08
      +3
      Quote: ArcanAG
      What is this? It will be very easy.

      In this case, it would be very easy to live on earth, nuclear weapons are weapons of deterrence, not for widespread use
  6. Alexander S.
    Alexander S. 12 February 2016 07: 25
    +4
    no one can know what will happen. war is an unpredictable thing ...
  7. Cobra77
    Cobra77 12 February 2016 07: 25
    45
    “In such a situation, no one will be the first to use nuclear weapons. For Moscow, the use of nuclear weapons first is a complete discrediting before all mankind and the corresponding consequences.” - Well, this is just not true.

    An attempt to land troops on the territory of the Russian Federation or strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation is a sufficient basis for the use of nuclear weapons at military facilities of the enemy. In addition, the experience of using nuclear weapons is already in the world. Nothing extraordinary can happen. Yes there will be screams, a lot of screams. But it will be a sobering action for all parties. Let there be an expansion of all embargoes, etc., the truth is only from Western countries. China and India, I think, will remain neutral. What is the benefit to them? And you might think that in a direct military conflict with the United States, and even with strikes and landings on the territory of the Russian Federation, the embargo will worry someone? Or will the type of States bomb our bases while selling us hard and giving loans?
    In fact, just the use of nuclear weapons in the medium and long term will benefit the Russian Federation. For when the dust settles, very many will reconsider their views on the policy towards Russia in a more sane way. Because Today, of course, we are afraid of a large nuclear club, but they do not believe that we will still apply it. At least there are big doubts. Here we will demonstrate the will to use it if necessary. And this is more important than having it in large numbers.
    1. katalonec2014
      katalonec2014 12 February 2016 08: 04
      +1
      That's right, keep the plus.
    2. guzik007
      guzik007 12 February 2016 08: 35
      +2
      Weighted argument, I agree.
    3. Ingvar 72
      Ingvar 72 12 February 2016 09: 22
      +2
      Quote: cobra77
      China and India, I think, will remain neutral.

      For China, our use of nuclear weapons will be a serious lesson and an example, otherwise they have licked their eyes on the Far East for a long time. So what I am for. But for this it is necessary to push through a law on the possible use of nuclear weapons in the protection of allied states.
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 11: 47
        +4
        Quote: Ingvar 72

        For China, our use of nuclear weapons will be a serious lesson and an example, otherwise they have licked their eyes on the Far East for a long time.

        You don’t want to come to us far and tell us about it on the bus. I guarantee there will be a lot of laughter, some will turn their fingers at the temple.
        1. Ingvar 72
          Ingvar 72 12 February 2016 13: 36
          -3
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          I guarantee there will be a lot of laughter, some will turn a finger at the temple.

          In Brest, the same war was not expected. Ewc]
          1. Nightwalker
            Nightwalker 12 February 2016 16: 55
            +1
            THIS TRANSLATION:
            Light is like the color of a sheet of paper
            Light is the place where it is
            Light - Brighter, Applause Silent
            She sings over an unbearable wound
            The last scene is added to the script.
            At this time, all residents have already taken places
            Observed in silence, although they could stop the performance
            The soot of war stains her tears
            The one that asks for candy in the wind
            In the first scene of the beginning of the story, the dust has already eclipsed the light of the sun
            Fear is already carved on the faces of children
            Wheat is already taken in the direction the tank was moving
            Dandelion hat flew off
            She flies without hope
            She just sings, just thinks
            This song is against the disaster of war
            Light a candle in a cruel night
            Stop the filth of war at dawn
            The song of the victims scatters thousands of miles
            Homeland devastated and starving
            Being careless on this path full of failures and collisions
            Her sedge hurts
            This is hope in children's eyes
            Waking up, have breakfast with a bowl of hot soup
            A peasant raises a gun from the ashes of the earth, from the ashes of the village
            But she gets used to give up
            What hope is in the eyes of children
            To swing on a swing in the yard and to store sweets in pockets?
            The light of a bayonet of imprisoned revenge seems barbaric from far
            But she smiles, because she does not know the excitement.
          2. Alexander Romanov
            Alexander Romanov 13 February 2016 06: 37
            0
            Quote: Ingvar 72
            In Brest, the same war was not expected

            Rap is cool proof. And you know that Russia wants to capture Alaska, here's a fact, see laughing
      2. Hitrovan07
        Hitrovan07 13 February 2016 09: 59
        0
        In this case, a military base - is it not the territory of the Russian Federation?
    4. Nightwalker
      Nightwalker 12 February 2016 11: 22
      +7
      I registered, only to plus your comment! But alas, you need 10 comments for the opportunity to vote ... They answered practically in my words! Respect!
    5. The comment was deleted.
  8. aba
    aba 12 February 2016 07: 29
    +4
    You can guess as much as you like, but hardly anyone will predict how it will turn out in a real conflict. But I do not allow a blow to the Crimea - in this case it is a full-scale military action against Russia and it will not have any alternatives how to destroy any military vessels entering the Black Sea. And most likely no one will turn up.
    1. domokl
      domokl 12 February 2016 07: 38
      0
      Quote: aba
      destroy any military vessels entering the Black Sea. And most likely no one will turn up.

      In this case, the Black Sea Fleet can completely block the straits. Even if NATO does not like it. And everyone understands this. Another question is the Crimea is the base. So you will need to destroy the base too. And here RK at the Black Sea Fleet is not enough. There will be strategic aviation
    2. TKM64
      TKM64 12 February 2016 10: 12
      +1
      Who knows. Given the inadequacy of erdogashka cannot be ruled out.
  9. Evgeniy667b
    Evgeniy667b 12 February 2016 07: 36
    10
    Erdogan's gut may be thin, but the situation is really serious. Turkey will not start without NATO support, and if they get involved, then definitely not only in Syria, but also in the Black Sea direction with air wings and the Navy to support puppets in Ukraine, Poland, and Georgia. Our group in Syria will be logistically isolated and destroyed. This is not even Afghanistan, which had a common border with the USSR. Our only argument is tactical nuclear weapons, but this is a kind of boomerang. Conventional weapons are renewed here criminally slow , limiting indiscriminately to export deliveries. Either India was lit up on the S-400, then Indonesia was salivating through the Su-35, MiGs to Egypt or elsewhere, helicopters to Egypt ..... If you compare 50 Su-30s in the Russian Air Force with 400 exported ones, then there are no conclusions that Russia benefits from this, do not stand up to criticism. It turns out that the private interests of the top military-industrial complex and power are higher than the interests of the country. But as they say, we have, then we have. More reason to our leadership and GDP above all! And in matters of domestic politics, in particular.
  10. tehnokrat
    tehnokrat 12 February 2016 07: 41
    0
    Quote: Yak-3P
    paranoia

    I totally agree. Minus.
    If 3/4 of the "quantity" of the article is translated into at least some "quality", then the article will be "0".
  11. Oleneboy_
    Oleneboy_ 12 February 2016 07: 44
    +5
    NATO partners will not climb for Turkey. Because Turkey itself will climb into Syria. The Americans will not fight with their own hands. They do not like this. And there will still be a war. This is my opinion. Who likes it or not. Everything goes to that
  12. Odysseus
    Odysseus 12 February 2016 07: 48
    +8
    In general, the algorithm of a possible Russian-Turkish conflict looks something like this:
    1) Turkey enters troops into Syria and, with air support, begins a military operation against the Syrian army.
    2) Our air defense systems and fighter jets begin to shoot down Turkish Air Force planes.
    3) Turkey inflicts a combined missile-artillery and air strike on the Khmeimim air base and blocks the straits. Perhaps attacking the fleet.
    4) Russia is withdrawing the remnants of the aviation group to other airfields, and is launching attacks against the air forces and navy against targets in Turkey itself. At the same time, military support is being provided to Turkish Kurds, and Iran is starting to transfer the maximum possible number of IRGC units.
    It is difficult to calculate further due to the uncertainty of NATO’s reaction and the ambiguity with the objectives for which attacks will be delivered in Turkey.
    But the more likely option is that Turkey introduces a land grouping into the territory controlled by the militants while not delivering air strikes and not entering into a direct clash with the Syrian forces.
    At the same time, support for the rebels is provided, and the Syrian army is forced to attack the Turkish troops.
    1. Arbogast
      Arbogast 12 February 2016 08: 02
      -11 qualifying.
      Quote: Good cat
      Erdogan's small intestine
      Incidentally, as there with the intestine (tomatoes) of Vladimir Vladimirovichrepeat?
      "There will be no keen" ©. At the end, the GDP will give the rear one, or rather, it already gives ..
      The Turks, coupled with the Saudis, warned - the offensive stops ..
      Regarding the scenario of the conflict, most likely I think the repetition of the plot of the Russian-Japanese war of the early XX century ..
      Quote: Odyssey
      2) Our air defense systems and fighter jets begin to shoot down Turkish air forces
      "Nourishing the hopes of young men."
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 12 February 2016 08: 14
        +6
        Quote: Arbogast
        Regarding the scenario of the conflict, most likely I think the repetition of the plot of the Russian-Japanese war of the early XX century ..

        Oddly enough, you answer Good Cat under my message smile
        The essence of your answer is also strange - the Russian-Japanese war was fought mainly on land, and partly at sea (Port Arthur, Tsushima). You may not be aware, but Turkey and Russia do not have common borders so there can be no major land battles a priori. Sea battles are theoretically possible, but given the theater of operations, they can only be local.
        So there are no analogies with the Russian-Japanese one.
        Quote: Arbogast
        "Nourishing the hopes of young men."

        If you think that the C-400, Su-35, Su-30 are not able to shoot down the aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force, then you are very mistaken ...
        1. Arbogast
          Arbogast 12 February 2016 09: 28
          +4
          Quote: Odyssey
          If you think that the C-400, Su-35, Su-30 are not able to shoot down the aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force, then you are very mistaken ...
          I have no doubt that the C-400, Su-35, Su-30 are capable of shooting down aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force ..
          I have some doubts that the order to shoot down will be given at all .. recourse
          The Turks will simply enter Syria and that territory which they will occupy the VKS will not bomb. That’s all, actually ..
          1. Victor-M
            Victor-M 12 February 2016 11: 27
            -2
            Quote: Arbogast
            Quote: Odyssey
            If you think that the C-400, Su-35, Su-30 are not able to shoot down the aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force, then you are very mistaken ...
            I have no doubt that the C-400, Su-35, Su-30 are capable of shooting down aircraft in service with the Turkish Air Force ..
            I have some doubts that the order to shoot down will be given at all .. recourse
            The Turks will simply enter Syria and that territory which they will occupy the VKS will not bomb. That’s all, actually ..

            And what were our troops in the Donbass? In Crimea, yes, that’s where the result is in person, and you are confusing something about southeastern Ukraine, so there will be an order, do not hesitate.
            1. Arbogast
              Arbogast 12 February 2016 13: 47
              0
              Quote: Victor-M
              In Crimea, yes
              Why are you talking nonsense and breeding a provocationfool You contradict Putin and Shoigu .. am
              VLADIMIR PUTIN: There are no Russian troops in Crimea ..



              Quote: Victor-M
              so the order will be, do not hesitate.
              I’ll remind you that Su-24 was shot down .. crying and there was no order .. request
          2. Odysseus
            Odysseus 12 February 2016 13: 34
            0
            Quote: Arbogast
            I have some doubts that the order to shoot down will be given at all.

            This is a political issue, we are discussing the military aspect of the problem. These are slightly different things. If you proceed from your premise, then all our discussion is completely pointless.
    2. alex-712
      alex-712 12 February 2016 08: 07
      +3
      With Kurdish support, the most feasible option.
    3. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 08: 14
      +1
      Quote: Odyssey
      2) Our air defense systems and fighter jets begin to shoot down Turkish Air Force planes.

      It seems that you are sitting at a computer and playing some kind of game, shooting down planes.
      Quote: Odyssey
      4) Russia withdraws the remnants of the aviation group to other airfields, and begins to strike the air forces and navy against targets in Turkey itself.

      With the planes of the Saudis, Bahrein and still hell knows who you will do?
      Plus the ground population of all this gop companies is about 150 thousand. In this situation, Syria will fall and we cannot do nichrome.
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 12 February 2016 08: 35
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        It seems that you are sitting at a computer and playing some kind of game, shooting down planes.

        In the event that the Turkish air forces begin to bomb government forces, they will prevent our air forces from bombing the rebel forces, then a clash in the air is inevitable. More precisely, in this case, Turkey will not wait for the clashes to begin in the air and will deliver a preventive strike at Khmeimim.
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        With the planes of the Saudis, Bahrein and still hell knows who you will do?

        The intervention of the Arab coalition is a separate scenario, I did not analyze it here. If we talk about them, it is very unlikely that their Air Force will deliver an unmotivated attack on Khmeimim from their airfields. The legend under which they intervene is the fight against ISIS. But, frankly, Given the balance of power and the fact that Khmeimim is shooting through the territory of Turkey, the situation of our VKS group is very difficult without the intervention of the Saudis ...
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Plus the ground population of all this gop companies is about 150 thousand

        Strongly less. The Saudis do not have so much strength. The maximum will bring 15-20 thousand into southeastern Syria, and they will also try not to clash with government troops, and not let them take control of the Jordanian border, thereby ensuring the supply of rebels.
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        In this situation, Syria will fall and we cannot do nichrome.

        Well, strictly speaking, yes. By and large, Assad needed to be helped on a large scale in 2011-2012, now we are seizing tactical chances in a lost strategic situation.
        The only thing that can save Syria in this situation is the intervention of Iran with all its capabilities.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 08: 43
          -4
          Quote: Odyssey

          The intervention of the Arab coalition is a separate scenario,

          How is it separate when the Sadites declare joint actions with Turkey.
          Quote: Odyssey
          that Khmeimim is shooting through the territory of Turkey, the position of our VKS group is very difficult without the intervention of the Saudis

          Well, it’s clear, it’s a pity that you are not the Minister of Defense, you would have scattered the Turks with the Saudis as one Air Force regiment.
          Quote: Odyssey

          Much less.

          Oh well.
          Quote: Odyssey
          A maximum of 15-20 thousand will be brought into southeastern Syria, and they will also try not to clash with government troops,

          And with whom are they going to fight there ??? With ISIS, which they themselves sponsor or with Assad, who is accused of everything. Do you yourself understand what you are writing now?
          Quote: Odyssey
          The only thing that can save Syria in this situation is the intervention of Iran with all its capabilities.

          A huge Middle Eastern fire. Considering that the Saudis are allies of the United States, what more do you need to say?

          PS For some reason, Rogozin remembered. Su 35-I advise no one to compete with this bird. Clown damn.
          1. Stas157
            Stas157 12 February 2016 09: 12
            +2
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            A huge Middle Eastern fire. Considering that the Saudis are allies of the United States, what more do you need to say?

            Yes, you didn’t say anything! A huge fire is going on there now, so what?

            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            PS For some reason, Rogozin remembered. Su 35-I advise no one to compete with this bird. Clown damn.

            And, not a clown, have any other arguments against the Su-35? And then I somehow agree with Dmitry Olegovich!
            1. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 09: 38
              +1
              Quote: Stas157
              A huge fire is going on there now, so what?

              This is not a fire yet.
              Quote: Stas157

              And, not a clown, have any other arguments against the Su-35?

              4 airplanes, against 400 airplanes. Although for Rogozin, this is nothing.
              Quote: Stas157
              And then I somehow agree with Dmitry Olegovich!

              For you too.
              1. Stas157
                Stas157 12 February 2016 09: 49
                +2
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                This is not a fire yet.

                What about? The Middle East is now the hottest place on the planet.

                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                4 airplanes, against 400 airplanes. Although for Rogozin, this is nothing.

                So you are not talking about the ratio in your comment, but specifically about the Su-35! And where did you collect 400 planes? If you have scored by country, in Russia there are not 4 aircraft, more than a thousand! And what can these 400 of your planes do if the runways are smashed? You also forgot about the S-400 and Fort!
                1. Alexander Romanov
                  Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 10: 59
                  0
                  Quote: Stas157

                  What about? The Middle East is now the hottest place on the planet.

                  And what of the fact that half of Africa is fighting, but everyone is on the drum. When the fire starts, you will immediately get it.
                  Quote: Stas157
                  So you are not talking about the ratio in your comment, but specifically about the Su-35!

                  And what is SU 35 a guarantee against all ills? Then what do you agree with Rogozin and to whom he did not advise to meet with SU 35. ISIS, or something.
                  Quote: Stas157
                  And where did you collect 400 planes?

                  This is modest, if there will be more Turks, Saudi Arabia and more.
                  Quote: Stas157
                  If you have scored by country, in Russia there are not 4 aircraft, more than a thousand! And what can these 400 of your planes do if the runways are crushed? You also forgot about the S-400 and Fort!

                  Am I talking to a 15 year old teenager?
                  1. Stas157
                    Stas157 12 February 2016 11: 49
                    +2
                    Quote: Alexander Romanov
                    And what of the fact that half of Africa is fighting, but everyone is on the drum. When the fire starts, you will immediately get it.

                    The fact that all of Syria, Libya and Iraq destroyed is not a fire? Yesterday messages were already about 470 thousand victims in Syria!

                    Quote: Alexander Romanov
                    This is modest, if there will be more Turks, Saudi Arabia and more.

                    Do you think that they will all fight against Russia? I do not think so.

                    Quote: Alexander Romanov
                    Am I talking to a 15 year old teenager?

                    This is your most deadly argument, Alexander! No other objections?
                    1. Alexander Romanov
                      Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 11: 58
                      -2
                      Quote: Stas157
                      The fact that all of Syria, Libya and Iraq destroyed is not a fire?

                      No, not yet a fire.
                      Quote: Stas157
                      Yesterday messages were already about 470 thousand victims in Syria!

                      In Africa, over 1.5 million has exceeded what?
                      Quote: Stas157

                      Do you think that they will all fight against Russia? I do not think so.

                      Your right not to think.
                      Quote: Stas157

                      This is your most deadly argument, Alexander! No other objections?

                      I have no arguments for stupidity.
                      1. Stas157
                        Stas157 12 February 2016 14: 11
                        +2
                        Quote: Alexander Romanov
                        I have no arguments for stupidity.

                        Or maybe there are simply no arguments?
                        If you think my idea is stupid, then indicate why, if you are a member of this forum! Obviously, your own position is inconclusive. The most that you can answer the objection is:
                        Quote: Alexander Romanov
                        Your right not to think.

                        or
                        Am I talking to a 15 year old teenager?
                    2. Pilat2009
                      Pilat2009 12 February 2016 16: 57
                      +1
                      Quote: Stas157
                      Do you think that they will all fight against Russia? I do not think so.

                      For some reason, no one in Iran does not include in the alignment, and they may well fight with the Saudis
          2. Odysseus
            Odysseus 12 February 2016 09: 12
            +3
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            How is it separate when the Sadites declare joint actions with Turkey.

            The original article that we are commenting on is called "Possible scenarios of the war with Turkey". Therefore, I focused on Turkey. As for the Arabs, of course, all US satellites, in general, act together. Intelligence, coordination, etc. But this does not mean that the Saudis will provide their aviation to the Turks and start working on targets in northern Turkey, in Turkish interests, especially if it is fraught with a direct clash with Russia.
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            And with whom are they going to fight there ??? With ISIS, which they themselves sponsor or with Assad, who is accused of everything. Do you yourself understand what you are writing now?

            They are coming not let Assad winTo do this, the main thing is to prevent Assad from closing the border. That is, just under the guise of "fighting ISIS" part of the territory on the border is occupied, and further through this hole the rebels are calmly supplied with weapons and fresh cannon fodder. I suppose that Turkey wants to do the same, moreover, without getting involved in a direct large-scale clash with Russia or even the troops of Assad.
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Well, it’s clear, it’s a pity that you are not the Minister of Defense, you would have scattered the Turks with the Saudis as one regiment

            Thanks, of course, but I won’t risk it. smile Too much responsibility. And Turks and Saudis will not be scattered by one regiment.
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            A huge Middle Eastern fire. Considering that the Saudis are allies of the United States, what more do you need to say?

            I’m not saying that this is good. I’m writing that only this can potentially save Syria. Ideally, you need to work proactively and prevent the United States from creating "zones of chaos", and not to unravel the consequences.
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            For some reason, Rogozin remembered. Su 35-I advise no one to compete with this bird. Clown damn.

            This is yes. Clown. It would be better to work more, speak less.
          3. Odysseus
            Odysseus 12 February 2016 13: 42
            0
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            A huge Middle Eastern fire. Considering that the Saudis are allies of the United States, what more do you need to say?

            By the way, the most likely option is that no one attacks, and a temporary truce is declared.
            This, of course, is also not an ideal option, since it does not allow Aleppo to be taken and gives the rebels the opportunity to regroup and build up strength, but this is still better than the direct intervention of Turkey and the Saudi coalition.
      2. Maks-80
        Maks-80 12 February 2016 09: 16
        +4
        Why is it 150 thousand? The entire army of the SA is only 70 thousand. And the rest of the monarchies, respectively, are even less. Do not forget that the SA is deeply bogged down in Yemen. They will be able to set a maximum of 2 - 5 thousand no more.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 11: 30
          -3
          Quote: Maks-80
          Do not forget that SA is deeply bogged down in Yemen

          Who told you this?
          Quote: Maks-80
          They will be able to set a maximum of 2 - 5 thousand no more.

          What 2-5 thousand. write so- people 120-150 can send.
      3. Tusv
        Tusv 12 February 2016 09: 42
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        With the planes of the Saudis, Bahrein and still hell knows who you will do?

        So there is also a Syrian air defense system. The presence of long-range two-hundredths stopped NATO from "democratizing" Syria according to the Libyan scenario. They cannot be quickly extinguished with Kharmami. Entering 150 thousandth gop of the company = loss of Yemen.
        A game on the verge of bluffing. They know that we have a pair of deuces, we know that they have an ace
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 11: 01
          -3
          Quote: Tusv
          So there is still Syrian air defense there.

          Tell the Hebrews, they will laugh.
          Quote: Tusv
          The presence of long-range two hundred stopped NATO from "democratizing" Syria

          Funny. Not really funny.
          Quote: Tusv
          Entering a 150 thousandth gop company = loss of Yemen.

          Even funnier. But do you need Yemen at all?
          1. Tusv
            Tusv 12 February 2016 11: 43
            +3
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Tell the Hebrews, they will laugh.

            What to tell then. Fighting Syria cannot win either. So gimp hezbolina and tear.
            Funny. Not really funny.

            Funny but it was
            Even funnier. But do you need Yemen at all?

            Yemen on my drum. But for some reason the Saudis need it
            1. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 12: 00
              0
              Quote: Tusv
              What to tell then. Fighting Syria cannot win either

              Tell the Jews about the air defense of Syria, otherwise they bomb Syria from time to time and calmly fly back.
              Quote: Tusv
              Fighting Syria cannot win either.

              Who is fighting Israel?
              Quote: Tusv

              Funny but it was

              When?
              Quote: Tusv
              But for some reason the Saudis need it

              Run in the military in combat conditions.
              1. Tusv
                Tusv 12 February 2016 12: 34
                +1
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                Tell the Jews about the air defense of Syria, otherwise they bomb Syria from time to time and calmly fly back.

                Not calm, but tactically competent.
                Who is fighting Israel?

                About it the other day told ALLO smile
                When?

                There is a friend, Horatio, that the media is not aware of
    4. Mera joota
      Mera joota 12 February 2016 08: 16
      +1
      Quote: Odyssey
      In general, the algorithm of a possible Russian-Turkish conflict looks something like this:

      Quote: Odyssey
      2) Our air defense systems and fighter jets begin to shoot down Turkish Air Force planes.

      Oh, how do they just start? But what about the planes that were bombed in Aleppo according to Konashenkov? Didn’t you?
      Quote: Odyssey
      Russia takes the remnants of the aviation group to other airfields

      Please list which ones?
      Quote: Odyssey
      At the same time, military support is provided to Turkish Kurds

      Do we have a common border with Kurdistan?
      1. Odysseus
        Odysseus 12 February 2016 08: 49
        +5
        Quote: Mera Joota
        But what about the planes that were bombed in Aleppo according to Konashenkov? Didn’t you?

        You, unfortunately, although you are quoting my post, have not read it. We are talking about a possible simulation of the Russian- Turkish conflict. And Aleppo was bombed by the Air Force USAYou may not be aware, but at the moment, the US Air Force and the Russian Air Force do not attack each other in Syrian airspace. Although, of course, both of them can do it.
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Please list which ones?

        A very strange question: I just can’t know in advance which Russian airspace forces will remain after the Khmeimim attack.
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Do we have a common border with Kurdistan?

        No, but we can calmly transfer as many MANPADS, ATGMs, and other weapons as we can to the Syrian Kurds and Iran. Through the Syrian and Iranian borders, all this will fall on the territory of Turkey and, accordingly, the Kurdish rebels in Turkey itself.
        1. Mera joota
          Mera joota 12 February 2016 09: 25
          0
          Quote: Odyssey
          I just can’t know in advance which Russian Air Force planes will remain after the Khmeimim attack.

          Meant which airfields you had in mind on which aircraft could be relocated.
          Quote: Odyssey
          No, but we can safely hand over as many arbitrarily as possible MANPADS, ATGMs, and other weapons to the Syrian Kurds and Iran

          What makes you think that the Syrian Kurds are friends with the Turkish? Iran will not give its Kurds anything, they are not ready to create a "novokurdia" in their country, it will not work 100%.
          Of course you can find ways (everything is decided by money), but it will be very difficult to arrange the supply of weapons constantly and in the required volumes, we must not forget that the Turks will in every possible way obstruct without disdaining any methods.
          1. Odysseus
            Odysseus 12 February 2016 14: 01
            0
            Quote: Mera Joota
            Meant which airfields you had in mind on which aircraft could be relocated.

            Well, for example, Shairat. In general, under the control of the government, EMNIP, about 15 airfields.
            Quote: Mera Joota
            What makes you think that the Syrian Kurds are friends with the Turkish?

            Friends are not friends, but they leave Turkey to go to Syria and the flow goes back, including with weapons, where do you think weapons from Turkish Kurds in Diyarbakir and in other cities where sluggish battles are now going on?
            Quote: Mera Joota
            Iran will not give anything to its Kurds,

            Of course, he won’t give his own. He can centrally give weapons to the Syrian Kurds and, in extreme cases, establish smuggling for Turkish Kurds.
            Quote: Mera Joota
            we must not forget that the Turks will in every way impede without disdaining any methods.

            Clear business will interfere, but we are considering the option of a fairly large-scale military conflict. In war, as in war.
        2. prorab_ak
          prorab_ak 12 February 2016 13: 25
          +2
          The fact of the matter is that there will not be such a scenario, as was clearly demonstrated by the "bombing by the forces of the United States of Aleppo." Why did our valiant Aerospace Forces and air defense sit watching as "NATO fascists" bomb civilians .... and most importantly Assad is silent. wassat
          Based on the statement of Konashenkov, two questions arise
          1. If they knew how they allowed it, and then they will continue to swallow silently
          2. Was there a boy? wink
          Oh, to me, these sofa strategists who see nothing further than their own ... sofa))
          1. Odysseus
            Odysseus 12 February 2016 14: 08
            0
            Quote: prorab_ak
            Why are our valiant Aerospace Forces and Air Defense watching as "NATO fascists" bombed civilians.

            My friend, not only the Americans fly and bomb there, the French and the Jews, both ours and the Turks, and, in fact, the Syrians, do it and nobody bothers anyone, moreover, not at all because they can’t. many times agreements between Russia and the USA, Russia and Israel, etc. about the interaction and delimitation of zones in the Syrian sky.
            Therefore, all your conclusions that someone has slapped someone or someone should be shot down are completely wrong.
            1. prorab_ak
              prorab_ak 12 February 2016 15: 16
              0
              And my conclusions were not in that)) ... I’m analyzing your opinions
              In general, the algorithm of a possible Russian-Turkish conflict looks something like this:
              1) Turkey enters troops into Syria and, with air support, begins a military operation against the Syrian army.
              2) Our air defense systems and fighter jets begin to shoot down Turkish Air Force planes.

              Only in 1 point replace with the USA and get the day before yesterday Aleppo)) ... but the second point of your high school will not be ... do not be so naive wink
      2. Ramzaj99
        Ramzaj99 12 February 2016 11: 15
        +2
        Quote: Mera Joota
        Oh, how do they just start? But what about the planes that were bombed in Aleppo according to Konashenkov? Didn’t you?

        And why actually they should have been shot down. Or do you already attribute the territory of Syria to the territory of Russia ??)) The American coalition is bombing there, the Israelis, Turks, Saudis, and the French are bombing (partially separate from the coalition), it's easier to say who is not bombing there))) .... They do not bomb the Russians objects do not bomb the Syrian army, on what basis they shoot down ?? Each country is bombing those groups that threaten it. Well, let the flag in their hands let them bomb, ours has less hemorrhoids.
    5. The comment was deleted.
    6. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 12 February 2016 09: 39
      0
      I would put in
      p.1.1 The Russian air force strikes Turkish troops in Syria.
      n.1.2. In response, Turkish air defense and fighters attack our aircraft from their territory.

      The scenario is likely but clearly losing for us.

      Perhaps our general headquarters is considering a scenario of a preemptive strike on air defense and enemy airfields, but for this some kind of provocation from Turkey is very necessary. And maybe it will happen.
  13. VeterS
    VeterS 12 February 2016 07: 50
    +6
    Bullshit! The author contradicts himself. And he does not understand the basics of warfare. And if they started, then to achieve victory, all means are good. Including nuclear, and electronic, and chemical, and bacteriological ... The winner is not judged! And after such a war, there will be no one to tryndet ...
  14. McLuha-MacLeod
    McLuha-MacLeod 12 February 2016 07: 52
    0
    Some kind of small-caliber author. I did not take into account many points.
    - if NATO harnesses, then it can get a blow from us in Europe too
    - if Turkey closes the straits, then we can close the Black Sea
    - much more if ....
    1. glasha3032
      glasha3032 13 February 2016 02: 23
      0
      We can shy away with "Calibers" in the oil fields of Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh is not far off. And there submarines from the Northern Fleet will catch up with Gibraltar, the American fleet will not be allowed into the Mediterranean. There are many things we can do.
  15. alex-712
    alex-712 12 February 2016 07: 58
    -1
    Quote: domokl
    Quote: fa2998
    I’m talking about the war between Russia and Turkey!

    Quote: fa2998
    .Want to fight with NATO!

    So I did not read your words correctly. I repeat, Stoltenberg said in Brussels that Erdogan would not receive support from NATO in the fight against Russia, in particular in Syria.

    Very strange, but what about the fifth article? in this situation, NATO is not a military alliance, but a zilch.
    1. glasha3032
      glasha3032 13 February 2016 02: 30
      +1
      Judging by the analytical articles in the media, it’s true that NATO is not a union, but a zilch! Even in the most combat-ready NATO army - the German, small arms are crooked, planes are practically not combat-ready and the tanks are rusted! And this is not Kremlin propaganda, but the statements of the German officials themselves. The remaining members of NATO are doing worse in the armies.
  16. tommy717
    tommy717 12 February 2016 08: 03
    -4
    I hope that the name of the author is a pseudonym, but the real one? Cowards? Vseslivaychenko? Or something like that?
  17. semirek
    semirek 12 February 2016 08: 12
    +4
    Samsonov is strenuously preparing for a war with Turkey, but he forgets one moment: starting a war with nuclear Russia is madness, it is enough to drop a dozen small nuclear weapons on Turkish military units - surrender in an hour. But?, All the troubles from England are an excellent reason. Remember the 2000 Kursk, torpedoed by an American submarine, five minutes later Bush called Putin with a proposal to hush up the conflict, and it was hushed up, the world was on the brink of a nuclear war, do the Yankees need it?
    If a war happens and no one is going to go to the bayonet with a three-ruler to the Turks, we have a lot of weapons that we don’t even know about.
    I believe that this hysteria should be completed.
    1. glasha3032
      glasha3032 13 February 2016 02: 32
      0
      Knocking down a Russian plane, the Turks did not doubt for a minute.
  18. Per se.
    Per se. 12 February 2016 08: 13
    15
    In his article, Alexander left Iran aside, and in the Syrian issue it cannot be ignored. Nevertheless, if Turkey starts hostilities, and it seems that everything is heading towards this, then the situation is indeed very difficult. The Russian military doctrine provides for the use of nuclear weapons, but there is no emphasis on a preemptive strike in it, and the use itself can be understood as an extreme measure, with the threat of the existence of Russia itself. During a coup in Ukraine, when it was possible to use military force within the framework of the collective security of the Commonwealth, and with the direct appeal of the legitimate President Yanukovych ("As the legally elected President of Ukraine, I appeal to President Putin with a request to use the Russian armed forces to restore the rule of law on the territory of Ukraine") Russia did not dare to take radical action, confining itself to Crimea. We received sanctions, the West declared the annexation of Crimea an annexation and did not recognize the legality of the transition of the peninsula to Russia. The military conflict with Turkey will give the West a reason for a complete blockade and isolation of Russia, including the shutdown of all banking systems and the blocking of our accounts. Here again it should be remembered that it was precisely the interests of the Russian oligarchs and monopolies that to a large extent excluded radical decisions on Ukraine. How far Putin is now ready to go is again a question of political will. Russia picked up capitalism, and this is an undoubted disadvantage in the fact that there was a dependence on the world capitalist system, the leader and master of which was the Anglo-Saxons. Chewing snot in Ukraine, submission to sanctions on Iran and Syria, when the supply of weapons was frozen, outright weakness, a consequence of the dependence of Russian capitalists on the West, and gave the United States a reason to go further. To play off and appropriate the fruits of victory is a long-standing and successful tactic of the Anglo-Saxons, the main fighting force for which is not so much their armed forces themselves, but their agents of influence and other people's cannon fodder that brings them victory. The struggle for Ukraine and Syria, we should have started a long time ago with the destruction of their agents of influence, creating a lobby, self-promotion and outright traitors within Russia itself, right down to the government. Now God alone knows what will happen, as they say, "only your angels know in heaven that you, the villagers, are waiting for you" ... Probably, not for that Russia survived, so that now it would yield to the sons of Satan.
  19. Ural resident
    Ural resident 12 February 2016 08: 15
    +6
    We must not forget what strategic tasks the United States has in Syria - to own the eastern part with the possibility of building an alternative gas pipeline. To do this, it is enough to force us out to the coast. Therefore, they will manage without a war, most likely Turkish troops will grab a piece of Syria and we will de facto have to come to terms with this - then there will be decades of talk about territorial integrity, etc., but in fact the territory will be owned by groups loyal to Washington. It is unlikely that the Turks will have the task of crushing our group. Although the State Department has probably prepared a scenario of a small "batch", they hardly want a large-scale war now. Syria for them is one of the strategic goals in the chain, with the help of which they are gradually going to strangle Russia. A small "batch" with the death of Russian and Turkish servicemen would play into the hands of the Americans. An extra trump card in the policy of overthrowing Putin would be very useful for them.
    Yes, and Erdoganushka under this sauce the states themselves would have shifted. They would organize a coup, and set up their new protege. Kerry or someone else would go again, they said that Erdogan was bad, we changed him, you need to resolve the situation, you can stay in Latakia with your base, but in fact the strategic task has already been completed - part of Syria is owned by NATO and you can build a gas pipeline.
  20. Ozhogin Dmitry
    Ozhogin Dmitry 12 February 2016 08: 18
    +4
    The thing is that NATO, knowing the unpredictability of Russia, will not know in advance whether we will apply nuclear weapons or not. Anything can happen. I do not think NATO will intervene. No one needs this war, Turkey will be torn to pieces, as they did with all their allies. Everyone understands what catastrophic troubles Russia and NATO can do.
  21. Kum
    Kum 12 February 2016 08: 34
    +5
    A crazy article written by a frankly stupid person. If war breaks out between Russia and Turkey, a nuclear strike on Turkey is all that remains of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, the Russian army will be defeated by the emboldened NATO armies, which, as victors, will dictate to Russia unacceptable peace conditions. In addition, do not forget that the people in Russia do not like the losers and that the Russian army drowned in blood will not forgive Putin or his ministers. The defeat in the war will end with a new revolution in the Russian Federation, and Putin in this case will end no better than Nicholas II.
  22. Mera joota
    Mera joota 12 February 2016 08: 36
    +3
    Let's recall the chronology of recent events.
    Russia and Assad's "united" troops are advancing on Aleppo, intensively inflicting "precision strikes" with free-fall bombs (Rudel is a witness, this is possible!), Turkey declares that it will defend Aleppo as a family and is pulling up troops from the north. Saudi Arabia, having gathered a grouping (150-300 thousand according to various statements) from the Egyptian troops, the Jordanians pushed it to Jordan, stating that they were preparing to send troops to Syria.
    The situation is heating up.
    And then the Reuters news agency announced that Russia agreed to cease fire from March 1, despite the fact that the domestic media reported the words of Peskov, saying that "no data has been made public, there is no need to speculate."
    Although on February 11 they published a statement by Lavrov:
    Sergei Lavrov, head of the Russian foreign affairs agency, drew attention to the fact that Moscow sent Washington a proposal to establish peace in Syria.
    Then the State Department declares that no March 1, and immediately stop any bombing. We are again silence.
    And finally at night 12.02.2016/XNUMX/XNUMX. the news was that:
    The parties to the talks in Munich agreed on a ceasefire in Syria within a week, US Secretary of State John Kerry said this, the NBC television channel reported.
    The communiqué of the Syria’s International Support Group states that the opposition and the regime of Bashar al-Assad must confirm the implementation of the measure, RIA Novosti reports.
    From the text of the document:
    The cessation of hostilities will begin within a week after the confirmation of the Syrian government and the opposition after appropriate consultations

    Official patriots and trolls have not yet received instructions on how "Putin all outplayed" (at least not met), so I am ready to draw my own conclusion:
    "Putin leaked", Erdogan outplayed everyone ...

    If the subsequent events refute my conclusions and the offensive continues, Aleppo will fall, and the Turks and Saudis will wrinkle at the borders, then I’m ready to publicly repent.
    Betting?
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. freedmen
      freedmen 12 February 2016 09: 25
      +7
      In war, and in any case, there are no winners. There are beaten or dead !!!
      And if there will be a world, then it will be the last, at least for me !!! And it will be a shame if I do not take at least one bitch with my own hands with my teeth to another world !!!
      I bet 1000 to 1.
    3. Stas157
      Stas157 12 February 2016 09: 40
      +2
      Quote: Mera Joota
      The parties to the talks in Munich agreed on a ceasefire in Syria within a week, US Secretary of State John Kerry said this, the NBC television channel reported.
      The communiqué of the Syria’s International Support Group states that the opposition and the regime of Bashar al-Assad must confirm the implementation of the measure, RIA Novosti reports.

      Quote: Mera Joota
      Official patriots and trolls have not yet received instructions on how "Putin all outplayed" (at least not met), so I am ready to draw my own conclusion:
      "Putin leaked", Erdogan outplayed everyone ...

      You are too categorical! We don’t know what conditions Moscow proposed, why immediately treat it as surrender! As far as I understand, Putin was not going to save and save ALL Syria, it was obvious that the partition of Syria is likely to not be avoided. Then I agree with Kedmi, he has long said that from the collapse of Syria, according to the Western version, Russia saved by intervening in the conflict. Now the West will be forced to agree on the future of Syria with Moscow, and the more successful Assad’s military victories will be, the faster negotiations will begin. That is exactly what happened!
      1. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 12 February 2016 09: 42
        +1
        Our diplomats just waste time and do the right thing. We are not ready for a blitzkrieg yet, and the rest of the scenarios are losing for us.
      2. Mera joota
        Mera joota 12 February 2016 10: 11
        +3
        Quote: Stas157
        We don’t know what conditions Moscow proposed, why immediately treat it as surrender!

        This is not about surrender. It's about interests. Erdogan needed to stop Assad's offensive both in Aleppo and in "Turkomania", Russia and Assad needed to close the border with Turkey and, ideally, drive out the rebels from Aleppo, or completely blockade the city.
        Recently, we didn’t hide that we were fighting not with IS / DAISH (forbidden there throughout the world and anathematized by the entire civilized world forever and ever Amen ...), but with Turkmens and opposition groups. IG smoke aside watching their opponents bite.
        Accordingly, a ceasefire means a cessation of offensive and air strikes on the above objectives. Who wanted this? I repeat, Erdogan, how they will interpret it honestly does not matter. Does Assad need this? No, so much effort and money has been spent, so many people have died ...
        1. MMX
          MMX 12 February 2016 10: 42
          +4
          Quote: Mera Joota
          Quote: Stas157
          We don’t know what conditions Moscow proposed, why immediately treat it as surrender!

          This is not about surrender. It's about interests. Erdogan needed to stop Assad's offensive both in Aleppo and in "Turkomania", Russia and Assad needed to close the border with Turkey and, ideally, drive out the rebels from Aleppo, or completely blockade the city.
          Recently, we didn’t hide that we were fighting not with IS / DAISH (forbidden there throughout the world and anathematized by the entire civilized world forever and ever Amen ...), but with Turkmens and opposition groups. IG smoke aside watching their opponents bite.
          Accordingly, a ceasefire means a cessation of offensive and air strikes on the above objectives. Who wanted this? I repeat, Erdogan, how they will interpret it honestly does not matter. Does Assad need this? No, so much effort and money has been spent, so many people have died ...


          What? Putinsled again?
          And the fact that Ankara is now forced to decide whether to send troops or not is, as they say, trifles. And Erdogan's militant rhetoric about everything and everyone, somehow suggests that the situation is critical (otherwise why a military operation). In addition, the ground phase is always associated with the risk of losses in manpower, and this always negatively affects the internal political situation + material costs. Like us, Turkey is now choosing between “bad” and “very bad”. And to talk here about who has outplayed whom at this stage is premature, since the situation is not limited to this, rather, on the contrary, everything is just beginning ...

          P.S. I already am silent about meetings in Munich and the like. Work is ongoing on both sides, but time will tell how events will develop and what they will lead to.
    4. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 12 February 2016 09: 40
      +5
      Quote: Mera Joota
      met), so I’m ready to draw my own conclusion:
      "Putin leaked", Erdogan outplayed everyone ...

      Well, finally, you waited until you can write about Putinslill again. Tell me it was difficult, yes, to sit and wait, when finally it will be possible to write it again?
    5. MMX
      MMX 12 February 2016 10: 48
      +4
      Official patriots and trolls have not yet received instructions on how "Putin all outplayed" (at least I have not met)


      There is such pain in this phrase. Obviously, you have suffered from these "official patriots and trolls")))

      therefore, I am ready to draw my own conclusion:
      "Putin leaked", Erdogan outplayed everyone ...


      Well, feel better?




      P.S. Apparently, the training manual has already been brought to you ...
      1. Mera joota
        Mera joota 12 February 2016 13: 27
        -1
        Quote: MMX
        There is such pain in this phrase. Obviously, you have suffered from these "official patriots and trolls")))

        What comes from them, what is required to endure?
        Quote: MMX
        Well, feel better?

        Yes, it’s all the same, it’s for you to scratch your head how to get out.
        Quote: MMX
        P.S. Apparently, the training manual has already been brought to you ...

        stamps ... stamps ...
        1. MMX
          MMX 12 February 2016 13: 52
          0
          What comes from them, what is required to endure?


          You know better, it’s not my popabol about the "training manual" and so on ...

          Yes, it’s all the same, it’s for you to scratch your head how to get out.


          To whom to get out and why?
          Persecution mania?

          stamps ... stamps ...


          Yeah, just dare I say that the first in this topic about the training manual, patriots, trolls, putinsl and the like, it was you who spoke up. So who thinks with cliches here?
    6. prorab_ak
      prorab_ak 12 February 2016 13: 36
      +1
      drinks everything is as it is .... but for those who are in the tank:
      1. We rebuilt Ossetia from Georgia. Everyone shouted, shouted. But no one even thought to send in their troops to help the Georgians.
      2. We rebuilt the Crimea from Ukraine. THE SAME HAPPENED.
      And if the Turks bring their troops with the Suudis into Syria, the maximum that will come from ours is "extreme indignation at the actions of the Turks" at the diplomatic level ... AND EVERYTHING !!!
      PS although here such strategies are highly discouraged ... look at the number of cons wassat
    7. glasha3032
      glasha3032 13 February 2016 02: 43
      0
      What to repent of? You made your version of the forecast by collecting all the available information, respect to you. Putin did not swear oaths to anyone, he could even dodge, continue bombing, and then his nerves are stronger, but apparently it was not without reason that he suggested ceasing fire on March 1, apparently the enemy was no longer a moral fighter and had already fled.
  23. Lysik001
    Lysik001 12 February 2016 08: 42
    11
    The author writes that even with NATO’s attack on Russia, we won’t be able to use Y.O. because it will write us into outcasts. But this is complete nonsense! Last year, the doctrine of the nat. Russia's security precisely with this point. We can be the first to apply Ya.O. (it is written in it!) If there is a threat to the state. I do not care where and who will write us down. Application Ya.O. when attacking a country, I consider it justified in any case. The fact that they immediately crush us without him will cause no doubt. The changes were specifically made in connection with the growing threat of an attack using conventional weapons. So much effort and money was spent on creating this weapon. Maybe not in vain. God forbid, of course ...
  24. dzvero
    dzvero 12 February 2016 08: 43
    10
    [quote = cobra77] "... An attempt to land troops on the territory of the Russian Federation or strikes on the territory of the Russian Federation are sufficient grounds for the use of tactical nuclear weapons against military targets of the enemy. / quote]
    That's right. The declaration of the top leadership of the Russian Federation that a strike on Russian troops in Syria would be equal to a strike on the territory of the Russian Federation and would entail the use of tactical nuclear weapons would sharply cool the ardor of Turks and Saudis.
    1. freedmen
      freedmen 12 February 2016 09: 23
      +1
      I agree to all 1000 !!!
      As the saying goes - dir the last cucumber, since such a booze is coming!
  25. egor1712
    egor1712 12 February 2016 08: 48
    +8
    The worst thing is that we are discussing options for warfare. Guys, let diplomats work better with languages. The war will begin who is right, who is to blame then it will not matter. If there are options to keep the aggravation, it is necessary to use. War is death, world war - millions of deaths of innocent people.
    1. Kum
      Kum 12 February 2016 09: 30
      0
      Do you seriously think that the United States will start a nuclear war with Russia over Turkey ?! If someone else’s brains have not dried up in Washington, this will not happen. Turkey and others are needed by the United States as cannon fodder and dependent territories, but to substitute US territory for Turkey’s nuclear attack from Turkey .... I don’t think Washington is so stupid ..
      1. Cat man null
        Cat man null 12 February 2016 09: 42
        +4
        Quote: Qum
        Do you seriously think that the United States will start a nuclear war with Russia over Turkey?

        And why, in fact, not?

        - in Turkey - the American airbase (called Injerlik). A blow to her, even indirectly, accidentally - that's the "reason for a fight"
        - in the region and nearby there are a lot of countries-owners of nuclear weapons, do you need to list, or is that clear? Where is the guarantee that someone's "finger will not flinch"? That's right .. there is no such guarantee ..

        And in general - I agree with people who write a la: "problems must, while it is still possible, be solved by political methods". And then there is not enough not half a site of warriors .. Allah, damn it, came running -" we will erase Turkey from the face of the Earth ".. like children, by God request

        And most of these are freshly registered .. which suggests some thoughts wink
        1. Kum
          Kum 12 February 2016 10: 10
          0
          It will not be a fight, but an exchange of nuclear strikes, and if Washington has brains, it will not do it. Turkey is cannon fodder and sphere of influence, but the master will not defend the serf at the cost of his life. The USA is in the role of master, and Turkey is in the slaves .. During the accident at the nuclear power plant in Japan, the entire US squadron departed at full speed and still the ships had to be washed for a long time, and the crews were decommissioned, for health reasons, they received substantial radiation doses. The Russian Federation will not hit the US base, but attacks on Turkish bases and cities will make it impossible for the US to be in Turkey, due to the high level of radiation. The United States will withdraw troops from Turkey, but the war will not start if there are still those in Washington who are able to think.
          1. Cat man null
            Cat man null 12 February 2016 12: 41
            0
            Quote: Qum
            It will not be a fight, but an exchange of nuclear strikes

            Whom with whom - exchange, specify? And what then, in your opinion, is a "fight" if an "exchange of nuclear strikes" is "not a fight" ??

            Quote: Qum
            The US will withdraw troops from Turkey, but the war will not start if there are still those in Washington who are able to think

            Mdya .. this is a clinic, IMHO ..
            1. Kum
              Kum 12 February 2016 14: 48
              -2
              The clinic is a person’s suggestion that the owner of the apartment, at the cost of his life, will protect the cockroaches living with him. I’m ready to bet that if the Russian Federation destroys Turkey with a nuclear strike, the United States will not lead a finger to avenge the Russian Federation for destroyed Turkey with nuclear blow to the Russian Federation. Apparently you did not watch the BBC movie about the alleged attack of the Russian Federation on Latvia. The USA and the EU will not fight with Russia either because of Turkey or Latvia, their own shirt is closer to the body ...
              1. Misha Honest
                Misha Honest 12 February 2016 14: 54
                0
                Quote: Qum
                own shirt closer to the body ...

                "One's own shirt is closer" is only according to Russian logic, but for the West, any shirt that brings income is closer to the body. This is where you are wrong.
                1. Kum
                  Kum 12 February 2016 15: 13
                  0
                  You are mistaken if you believe with some pieces of paper and agreements signed on them. This west of yours, at one time, merged Czechoslovakia, Austria, and, in general, Poland with Hitler, because the so-called `` strange war '' is not a war.
              2. Cat man null
                Cat man null 12 February 2016 15: 28
                +1
                Quote: Qum
                .

                I repeat the question:

                - nuclear exchange - who do you expect with whom?
                - why is this "exchange", in your opinion, "not a fight", but just an easy walk?

                Quote: Qum
                The USA and the EU will not fight with Russia either because of Turkey or Latvia, their own shirt is closer to the body

                - Do not consider the option of providing massive technical assistance, of the same Turkey? But in vain, IMHO ..

                Quote: Qum
                I’m ready to bet that if the Russian Federation destroys Turkey with a nuclear strike, the United States will not lead a finger

                - Turn on the brain already! Bet he, you know, is ready to keep .. in a stump, in a toilet upside down such bets !!

                In short, count:
                1. Kum
                  Kum 12 February 2016 15: 55
                  0
                  1) I believe that the United States will not go to war with Russia over Turkey and start a nuclear war, so there is no reason to expect a nuclear exchange between the United States and the Russian Federation, with a probability of 99%. 2) Massive help to whom and with what ?! A) To help the destroyed armed forces of Turkey is how to put mustard plasters to the deceased. C) If the United States, allegedly on behalf of Turkey, begins to hit American missiles against the Russian Federation, then they will run into a retaliatory strike from the Russian Federation, there should already be frank dumbasses across the United States and Washington, so as not to understand this. 3) The fact that our opinions differ does not mean that you are right.
                  1. sniper
                    sniper 12 February 2016 18: 06
                    0
                    Quote: Qum
                    ) I believe that the United States will not fight with Russia over Turkey and

                    It seems to me that directly Turkey, Ukraine, Crimea and everything else has nothing to do with it ... the USA has long been waging a war against Russia, albeit not explicit, quiet, but it is waging ... And the US attitude towards Turkey does not matter. If if Russia succeeds in dragging Russia into an armed conflict in which it suffers heavy enough casualties, why not strike? If the chances of a response will be minimized. I would consider the situation in this vein, and all sorts of reasoning will stand up for Erdogan or not - this is from the evil one ...
    2. Syrdon
      Syrdon 12 February 2016 13: 57
      +2
      it’s absolutely true, for this will not be limited to just strikes between the Russian Federation and Turkey. NATO, Iran and, later, China will certainly get into a fight. As the conflict develops, Israel will not stand aside and there is still a big question on whose side it will speak. They certainly will not miss the chance not to take the opportunity to crush the Wahs-Saudis. the real 3 world war will begin and only the USA will benefit from it, they count on it. The crisis of the capitalist economy (and we are now in the biggest crisis since the Great Depression) is always solved by the war, this is a classic.
      1. Kum
        Kum 12 February 2016 14: 54
        +1
        Arguments ?! Here is a BBC film about the alleged attack of the Russian Federation on Latvia, frankly says that the US and the EU will not fight for Latvia with the Russian Federation. Turks in the EU are `` loved '' no more than Uzbeks who have come to Russia after the collapse of the USSR and who want to defend Turkey, to the last drop of blood, it will be difficult to find in the EU and the US. If Russia shows toughness and destroys Turkey with one massive missile strike, with using tactical nuclear weapons, demonstrating to the whole world its strength and readiness to fight to the end, no one will fight the Russian Federation, and Turkey will physically not be able to respond.
  26. Fidel
    Fidel 12 February 2016 08: 49
    0
    Good article. An interesting and fairly detailed analysis.
    If we exclude the "spell" with regards to nuclear weapons. Here. And without incantations, this analysis clearly implies the prospect of an almost inevitable and necessary use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Armed Forces. And as for the Turks or the Saudis - this is how the situation will develop. And maybe for both.
    1. freedmen
      freedmen 12 February 2016 09: 21
      0
      Tureks, we will fail without nuclear weapons. But nuclear weapons need to be reserved for the Anglo-Saxons - they are the most provocateurs (the whole story is voiced about this), they capture the world with other people's hands, so read about 400 years. So, you need to bring them down first using nuclear weapons. And bring them down boring tight !!! May the world be cleaner in the future!
      1. Kum
        Kum 12 February 2016 14: 58
        0
        Heavy ballistic missiles would be enough for the Anglo-Saxons, and Turkey had to be extinguished with cruise missiles, with tactical nuclear warheads, otherwise Russia would suffer excessively large losses by fighting conventional weapons with Turkey. In addition, the use of the Russian Federation only conventional weapons can provoke an invasion of NATO in the Russian Federation, and the rapid destruction of Turkey with tactical nuclear weapons will discourage the Yankees from fighting with the Russians for a long time.
  27. huntsman650
    huntsman650 12 February 2016 08: 52
    -2
    If Turkey brings troops into Syria, there will be cries and nagging, as with Su24 and no more.
    1. Kum
      Kum 12 February 2016 09: 34
      +3
      It depends on the details. If Turkey has enough dope to sink, for example, the Varyag missile cruiser, then the sunken cruiser and hundreds of dead Russian sailors, this is either a war with Turkey, or the end of Putin and his party, such a drain in the Russian Federation will not be forgiven. Victory in the war with Turkey is possible only with the use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russian Federation ... So Turkey is playing with fire.
  28. Megatron
    Megatron 12 February 2016 08: 53
    +5
    The author writes nonsense. How can you "force Russia to give up nuclear weapons" by non-military means? Now it seems like it's not the days of the hunchback or the drunk.

    And they forgot about such a factor as Iran.

    The article is a clear minus.
  29. guzik007
    guzik007 12 February 2016 08: 56
    11
    There will be a world, there will not be a world ... If you consider the United States and NATO countries as states with a single political center, yes, the probability is 90%. Only now the world is ruled not by presidents, but by the largest concerns, alliances of concerns, if you like. And far from always in the same USA their interests coincide. A good example of this is the old man Kissinger, who at the most critical moments unofficially met with GDP and everything quietly resolved Hence, our perplexity about the liberals in power. They represent the interests of powerful competitors of no less powerful forces behind GDP. From here, in the same USA, part of the interests of one of the parties coincides with the interests of Putin and vice versa. A simple example is 40% of enriched uranium in American nuclear power plants produced in the Russian Federation. Think for yourself whether 3MB is needed by the largest energy concerns? Well and so on. A good example from the recent past is an example of how half of the US industry invested in Hitler’s economy and rose well in the war, they didn’t do anything for it, even the iron cross on Ford’s neck changed nothing.
    Today only a madman can unleash a global war of annihilation. A local conflict with the use of nuclear weapons is possible and even, if not paradoxical, would be useful for our authority. For he would have shown our determination, would have quickly put all the dots over And in the Middle East conflict, would have shown who is there, in our underbelly master.
    A short-term nuclear strike, with prior notification of the "partners", even if in the desert zone - and that's all, all the Arabs are hammered in burrows. Will the screams go? Yes, have mercy, how much dirt has already been poured on us, at least it will not be so offensive. About a possible response from NATO, I argued above.
  30. Fidel
    Fidel 12 February 2016 08: 57
    +3
    And in Ukraine, it seems to me that the author is somewhat right.
    There was no need to tighten this bagpipe. In the "minuses" one hell got the same thing, but the "pluses" only a bit of Donbass.
    And besides, the working economy of Ukraine is completely falling apart before our eyes, and the country is being stupidly stolen.
    Who needs it at the borders? Yes, with heaps of nomadic armed gangs. Eh ...
  31. semuil
    semuil 12 February 2016 08: 59
    +4
    Bullshit.
  32. Fidel
    Fidel 12 February 2016 09: 05
    +2
    The only thing I don't like is all these mantras about "outcasts", "the world community" ... All this is mutota. Arguments for impressionable young ladies and “stylists” in male guise.
  33. Alexander 3
    Alexander 3 12 February 2016 09: 06
    0
    Erdogan can take any ill-conceived actions, there has already been one thing. Nobody can calculate the military actions and their development. In addition, we have a piece of the border with Turkey in Armenia. Given their mutual love, Russia will not be left alone. Our large military is located in Armenia base.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 12 February 2016 09: 48
      -1
      This option is certainly being considered, but Armenia has no border with Russia, and transferring heavy equipment by air is not the best option.
  34. Alex_Sis
    Alex_Sis 12 February 2016 09: 07
    +5
    Why retell Sivkov's ravings about landing on the Black Sea coast ???
  35. hartlend
    hartlend 12 February 2016 09: 14
    +1
    The author of the article needs to work in the General Staff. I calculated everything, alone, without intelligence and analysts.
  36. freedmen
    freedmen 12 February 2016 09: 17
    +5
    in short, dude contradicts himself. So to speak, he talked to himself, philosophized.
    and everywhere he has nuclear weapons, Russia can’t use. Some kind of dregs!
    Anglo-Saxons, our ancestors, and after the chocks beat in full! And that means we can’t pump it up, all the more if these ushlepok (Saxons, chureks and others like them) will think of stomping our Mother with their bloody boots.
    Sent to the campaign of the Cossacks then ?! In his opinion, it is better to give up immediately.
    Hello everyone!
    All peace and good!
    God will not give, pigs will not eat!
    We will be alive - we will not die!
    Break through!
  37. Seraphimamur
    Seraphimamur 12 February 2016 09: 24
    +1
    After reading the article and comments, I realized one thing: if the GDP has the will to use tactical nuclear weapons, then there will be no problem deferring Syria and will be reckoned with Russia. If not, we will lose Syria and possibly Crimea and even the entire Black Sea coast. And screams, sanctions will be drooling in any case, and it seems to me that they will be fiercer if Russia shows its weakness.
  38. The comment was deleted.
  39. complete zero
    complete zero 12 February 2016 09: 43
    +1
    Quote: Alexander Romanov
    Quote: domokl
    2. Turkey’s aviation will be neutralized by strikes of the Kyrgyz Republic and Russian aviation

    Hi Sanya! You somehow separated flies from cutlets not quite correctly. Yes, and the author walks crookedly. Turkey alone will not go, along with the Saudis and hell knows who. Arabs as warriors, of course, are still those. But nonetheless, the Saudis are armed with about 200 F 15 various modifications, and it seems that they bought about 100 Taifuns or Tornadoes from the Angles. Well, F 16 and how much is there. + Arab Emirates is another 250-300 aircraft.
    In short, the devil knows what all this will result in.

    I don’t know how Arabs (war or not), but the Janissaries of the war are serious (from the time of the Ottomans) and the armed forces in this region have a clear advantage over us.
  40. Achilles
    Achilles 12 February 2016 09: 46
    +1
    At the same time, the calculations of some “patriotic” attacks of tactical nuclear weapons on Turkey can be immediately forgotten. Russia cannot be the first to use nuclear weapons in such a situation. Only during the invasion of the enemy army into the territory of Russia and the disastrous situation of the Russian Armed Forces. If Moscow applies tactical nuclear weapons in Turkey, then Russia will automatically be recorded in the "Resident Evil" ("Evil Empire"). The Russian Federation will become an outcast worse than the DPRK. The United States and NATO will receive the blessing of the whole world for a "crusade" to the East. As a result, Moscow will be forced to abandon nuclear weapons, and after that, the dismemberment of Russia is inevitable.

    I do not agree with this, if our group in Syria is destroyed, I think in this case we have every right to start tactical missiles, if it doesn’t help then pointly deliver nuclear strikes at the Turks bases, the author is clearly wrong, the West will not drive us into angle since in this case, we will be forced to deliver large point strikes across the entire NATO bloc, and this is the death of all mankind, there’s not enough soul in the west to go for it
  41. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs 12 February 2016 09: 47
    +4
    Premature analysis, not all the pieces on the chessboard have been placed yet. In any military clash between Turkey and Russia, the entire infrastructure and fleet in the bases will be simultaneously destroyed by our cruise missiles and strategic aviation. This is understood by both Turkey and NATO. In the near future, I predict the deployment of small NATO military groups inside the Turkish army and at aviation aerodromes and the creation of mixed ship groups. In such an environment, Turkey can accept any provocation, and it is not yet clear how to respond to it.
  42. complete zero
    complete zero 12 February 2016 09: 48
    0
    good material to the author respect .... we must proceed from the worst and not build illusions about "some discrepancies between Turkey and NATO" ... NATO will not abandon the Turks, so as not to miss the moment when it will be necessary to translate the war into diplomacy (otherwise ogreb) .. well, the Kurds need to be "fed"
  43. vitya1945
    vitya1945 12 February 2016 10: 02
    +1
    There will be no war ... but it is necessary to prepare,
    to begin with, even disperse the aircraft, and it’s scary to imagine what will happen if Erdogan massively uses the RZSO according to Khmeimim.
  44. Pacifist
    Pacifist 12 February 2016 10: 05
    +3
    Logical and strategic error in the postulates. In the event of NATO intervention in the conflict and the entry of naval groups in the Chechen Republic with subsequent attacks on our territory, the article of Russia's military doctrine on protecting the existence of the state comes into force, which involves the use of nuclear weapons even in the event of a conventional arms strike. As a result, a massive mixed strike will be delivered to the naval group, part of the weapons of which will be tactical nuclear weapons. And about the Black Sea grouping of NATO it will be no longer necessary to worry. By the way, they also understand this well. That is why there has been so much howling about this key change in doctrine. And they will not get involved in a full-fledged nuclear war with attacks on the land territory of countries, since this is a transition to the conditions of the doctrine of guaranteed mutual destruction. Their hamburgers are more expensive than Turkish shawarma.
  45. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 12 February 2016 10: 23
    +2
    The world was preparing for war, and the Russians merrily sang a song:

    Slowly rockets float away
    You do not wait for a meeting with them.
    And although America is a little sorry
    the best, of course, lies ahead.

    Tablecloth, tablecloth Chlorzian spreads
    and gets under the gas mask.
    Everyone, everyone believes in the best.
    Falling, falling nuclear bomb.

    Maybe we offended someone in vain,
    Dropping a couple of extra megatons.
    Look how fun the earth is boiling
    Where was once Washington.
  46. Yugan Oleg
    Yugan Oleg 12 February 2016 10: 23
    +1
    Well gentlemen! If Turkey hits Heimim, then an answer to the bases in Turkey will be inevitable. NF is not necessary to apply, too troublesome. But with the usual charges on the infrastructure of Turkey and not only military but also civilian, the same power plants will plunge Turkey into chaos. I think their maneuver will be more Jackalan. Saudis, when engaging in direct confrontation with Russia, will give carte blanche to supply weapons to Yemeni rebels. And they understand this (Do not take them as idiots) I fear only one thing - that in order to distract the forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense from Syria, military operations in the Donbass will be intensified. But wait and see.
  47. demo
    demo 12 February 2016 10: 41
    +1
    “We do not want to make the same mistake in Syria as in Iraq. Must see the horizon. What happens in Syria can only happen until a certain point. In one of them, this should change. ”

    It would be better for the Turkish president to see the coast and feel a hard bottom.
    And it’s not long to drown, in an attempt to reach the horizon.
  48. cheap trick
    cheap trick 12 February 2016 10: 41
    0
    Saudis do not dump Mexico, the states will defend! but Nigeria and Venezuela have already been bent! Russia is not far off! and from TV screens all the tales tell that Russia is even ready for the price of 20 bucks!))) yeah, yeah, ready! a year ago, leading economists wrote that at a price of 50 bucks in Russia irreversible changes will take place, but here they can handle 20! that kakly that Russian love reading fairy tales very much! we know.
  49. askort154
    askort154 12 February 2016 10: 43
    +1
    The plans of Turkey and the CA, under the guise of eliminating the Assad regime, to divide Syria among themselves, fail.
    They want to enter their troops there and are pricking. They do not know how red the line Russia is ready
    fight for Syria. And most importantly, they need to enlist 100% support from NATO. Because the United States sharply
    "talked" with Russia on the solution of the Syrian issue, it is clear that they do not want to unleash a big war with Russia because of the regional interests of Turkey and the SA. Therefore, no land invasions
    to Syria will not be. The Turks with the Saudis bluff and calm down. The Turks will soon be not in Syria, they will have to seriously fight the Kurds. The article is not serious.
  50. su navy
    su navy 12 February 2016 10: 44
    +4
    "... and after that the dismemberment of Russia is inevitable." Author, not only are you wandering, but you are also promoting defeatism. Fucking alarmist.