Military Review

At a throw-in price

36
"Experts" Stratfor found the problems of the Russian "defense", where they do not exist


Stratfor, which has a bad reputation in the West, but for some reason, the “intelligence-analytical” organization that is abundantly quoted in our country has published an article entitled “The loss of the Indian market could destroy the Russian military-industrial complex”. The main points are: firstly, our country is losing its dominant position in the Indian arms market, secondly, the loss of orders from New Delhi in the context of a reduction in the military budget will have a devastating effect on the domestic defense industry.

As examples of Russia's likely failures in the Indian market, there are risks of a contract for the supply of 100 (?) Light helicopters, a threat to the ITA medium transport aircraft program and the possible exit of India from a joint project to create a fifth-generation fighter (FGFA). The place of Russia is occupied by other manufacturers, and Stratfor gives examples of their success. These are deals with the United States for the supply of helicopters and transport airplanes, with South Korea for self-propelled howitzers, with Israel for UAVs, air defense systems and anti-tank systems, and an early contract with France on 36 Rafaley.

Admittedly, the article contains several true and new statements. The only problem is that all true statements are not news, and all insights of thinkers from Strafor are wrong. In essence, the text is a collection of truisms, logically contradictory statements and outright false statements. The information given in the report was obtained by careless googling, inference is not original, forecasts and conclusions, to put it mildly, are controversial.

Nonexistent dominance

Let's start with the central thesis - about Russia's loss of dominance in the Indian arms market. The article contains a strange statement that in the past five years, Russia "provided 70 percent of all Indian arms imports." Naturally, it does not specify what is meant - the supply or the cost of contracts. This promise is clearly wrong: Russia has never had such a share in the Indian market, neither in terms of supply, nor in terms of the amount of contracts concluded. At best, the USSR had such indicators.

Then the authors make an even stranger statement: “... despite the fact that over the past five years, sales weapons and military equipment, Russia held a dominant position; the United States may have overtaken it in terms of its total sales turnover. ” Let us disregard that it would be good to confirm such statements with numbers. But do Stratfor analysts really not notice the obvious logical contradiction between the two parts of the same sentence? How can you occupy a leading position if someone has already overtaken you in terms of "total sales"? It seems that the experts of the “shadow CIA” have problems not only with the sources of information, but also with the formal Cartesian logic.

In fact, no dominance of Russia in the post-Soviet period was observed. The Indian arms market has always been open and competitive. Already in the 80-s, the British, French and Germans were actively present here. The Israelis entered the 90 triumphantly. Finally, the US broke into 2000. Russia has always been one of equals here. At best, only sometimes the first.

If, as the authors of the report actually do, to identify the concepts of “increased competition in the Indian market” and “loss of dominance”, then such a loss occurred as early as the USSR in 80. In the aftermath of this loss, Russia only from large systems delivered an aircraft carrier, a nuclear submarine, 290 Su-30MKI and Su-30K fighters to India, more than one hundred and fifty helicopters, six frigates, launched and successfully implemented a joint project for the development and production of heavy long-range supersonic anti-ship missiles and so on and so forth. The catastrophic decline of the Russian presence in the Indian market is evident.

However, with an increase in the number of players on it, the relative share of Russia really, as it was ingeniously guessed at Stratfor, may decrease. But it is just as logical to assume that such a relative decline is observed not only in Russia, but also in other arms exporters, except for the newcomer in this market - the United States. But the main thing - the expected reduction in the share does not necessarily mean a decrease in the absolute volumes of Russian exports. So, the statement by the authors of the report that the specified narrowing of the Russian share (we repeat, the numbers in the text are not confirmed) will lead to problems in the national defense industry and will cause a delay in the modernization of the army for a longer period, also contains a logical error.

The mythical “return to 90”


The second fundamentally erroneous thesis of the report is the statement that difficulties in the Indian market, combined with the impossibility of increasing (sic!) Military spending, will almost lead to a collapse of the Russian defense industry. The assumption is based on a single analogy - in 90, and now the economy of the Russian Federation is experiencing a period of low oil prices and budgetary difficulties caused by this circumstance. But that's where the similarities end. Even under the existing financial conditions, there will be no return to the export-oriented model of development and operation of the Russian defense-industrial complex. Of course, exports are very important for increasing the serial production, and with the current exchange rate - and to ensure the financial sustainability of the defense industry. But in principle this applies to one degree or another to the military industry of any country (except, perhaps, the United States) and is true for any period — at least high, though low oil prices.

At a throw-in priceFor all the importance of exports, unlike 90's, it will not remain the only oxygen cushion of Russian defense companies. With all the similarities of the external economic context of modernity and 90-s, our capabilities of 20-year-old and today are fundamentally different. At the very least, the country has turned into the sixth economy of the world and is able to adequately finance national defense in any external situation. Military-political conditions also vary greatly. From partnership Russia has come to a tough confrontation with the West. The reduction of the military budget of the country is inevitable, but the defense industry will not remain without internal orders, and their volume will provide a completely acceptable level of enterprise utilization.

Another difference from 90-x is the changing role of India as an importer of Russian weapons and military equipment. Just as she herself diversified sources of arms supplies, so Russia has greatly expanded its list of clients. If in the 2007 year, India provided 45 percent of all foreign orders of the Russian defense industry, today this share has decreased to about 20 – 25 percent. If in 2000 only two countries - China and India - consumed up to 80 percent of Russian supplies, today this share falls on five to six customers. So, fluctuations in one market - Indian or any other - are far from being so critical for the stability of domestic arms exports.

So, the few figures in the report are doubtful or incorrect. The main conclusions about Russia's loss of dominance in the Indian market and about the possible collapse of the Russian defense industry in this connection are erroneous. Dominance is impossible to lose, because it does not exist for a good quarter of a century. The collapse in connection with this of the Russian MIC is impossible, because, unlike 90's, Indian orders are no more critical, although they remain very important. The examples of problematic Russian-Indian projects prove nothing. In one case (FGFA) - because the project is not. In the second (MTA) - because it seems problematic over the past 15 years. In the third - in the case of the Ka-226 T helicopters - because this project has not really begun yet.

It seems that in front of us is not an attempt to objectively analyze the situation, but a propaganda throw. An episode of a general information war against Russia in general and its arms exporters in particular. No one will be surprised if this opus is not the only one. It is not excluded that today Stratfor charlatans are inventing new discoveries about how Russia is losing the arms market in other regions of the world. For example, in Latin America, where recently the United States has sharply intensified its opposition to Russian military supplies.
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http://vpk-news.ru/articles/29108
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  1. polite people
    polite people 10 February 2016 13: 35
    18
    It’s fitting for barks to bark at an elephant. This is their credo. And the caravan of Russia goes on and on. We serve Russia. soldier
    1. Baikonur
      Baikonur 10 February 2016 13: 47
      +5
      do Stratfor analysts fail to notice the obvious logical contradiction
      They have an order: "Don't notice!"
      And, as the saying goes: "Nothing logical, just business!"
      1. NIKNN
        NIKNN 10 February 2016 13: 49
        +6
        Bluff. The dog barks the caravan goes ... request
        1. cniza
          cniza 10 February 2016 13: 55
          +6
          Complete degradation, before there were serious experts read opponents, now they are just propagandists or pretend to be.
          1. Lelek
            Lelek 10 February 2016 20: 22
            0
            Quote: cniza
            Complete degradation, before there were serious experts read opponents, now just propagandists



            The main thing is to crow, and there - at least do not dawn. How many times have the Western Vitii buried Russia, its economy and the military-industrial complex, and we live in spite of it and will live. yes
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. meriem1
          meriem1 10 February 2016 23: 45
          0
          Quote: NIKNN
          Bluff. The dog barks the caravan goes ... request

          We leave it outside the brackets)))))))))) And who is the Block ???

          Zillions - you. We - the darkness and darkness and darkness.
          Try, fight with us!
          Yes, we are Scythians! Yes, Asians - we,
          With slanted and greedy eyes!

          For you - centuries, for us - a single hour.
          We are like obedient slaves
          Holding a shield between two hostile races
          Mongols and Europe!

          Century, century your old horn forged
          And drowned out thunder, avalanches,
          And a wild fairy tale was a failure for you
          And Lisbon, and Messina!

          You looked east for hundreds of years
          Digging and melting our pearls
          And you, mocking, counted only the term,
          When to train cannon vents!

          Here - the time has come. Wings are beating trouble
          And every day resentment multiplies,
          And the day will come - there will be no trace
          From your Paestums, maybe!

          Oh, the old world! Until you perish,
          While you languish with sweet flour,
          Stop, wise as Oedipus,
          Before the Sphinx with an ancient mystery!

          Russia - Sphinx. Rejoicing and mourning
          And bleeding black blood,
          She looks, looks, looks at you.
          And with hatred, and with love! ...

          Yes, to love as much as our blood loves,
          None of you have loved for a long time!
          Forgot you, that in the world there is love,
          Which burns and kills!

          We love everything - and the heat of cold numbers,
          And the gift of divine visions,
          Everything is clear to us - and a sharp Gallic meaning,
          And the gloomy German genius ...

          We remember everything - hell streets of Paris,
          And the Venetian coolness,
          Lemon groves are a distant fragrance,
          And Cologne smoky bulks ...

          We love flesh - and its taste, and color,
          And the stuffy, mortal flesh smell ...
          Guilty if we crack your skeleton
          In the heavy, gentle paws?

          We used to get used to the bridle
          Playing horses zealous,
          Breaking horses with heavy sacra
          And pacify the slaves of the obstinate ...

          Come to us! From the horrors of war
          Come in peace hugs!
          Before it's too late - the old sword in the sheath,
          Comrades! We will become - brothers!

          And if not - we have nothing to lose,
          And we are not above treachery!
          Century, centuries you will be curse
          Sick later offspring!

          We are wide in the wilds and forests
          Before Europe, prigozhey
          Let's part! We will turn to you
          His Asian mug!

          Go all, go to the Urals!
          We clear the place of battle
          Steel machines, where the integral breathes,
          With the Mongolian wild horde!

          But we ourselves are no longer a shield to you,
          From now on, we will not enter the battle ourselves,
          We'll see how the mortal battle is boiling,
          With his narrow eyes.

          We will not move when the ferocious Hun
          In the pockets of corpses will fumble,
          Burn the city, and drive the herd into the church,
          And fry white brothers meat! ...

          For the last time - come to your senses, old world!
          On the fraternal feast of work and peace,
          The last time for a bright fraternal feast
          Cries the barbaric lyre!
          PS let them eat
      2. Samen
        Samen 10 February 2016 13: 59
        +2
        Quote: Baikonur
        And, as the saying goes: "Nothing logical, just business!"

        That's right! Listen to the Western analyst and change the sign of assessment to the opposite ... hi
        Yes, I forgot the main thing: I read the article with great pleasure! Thanks to the author!
        1. zloybond
          zloybond 10 February 2016 16: 30
          +1
          judging by the situation ... buy buy games do not buy similar to technology divorce .... ours seems to be in flight ... but in fact with the Indians they neatly breed NATO on technology ... and then they work, they work, they work ... and they give out some huts to the mountain ... and again the mongrels around the caravan come to a standstill .. ..
      3. cap
        cap 10 February 2016 14: 11
        +1
        weapon
        Quote: Baikonur
        do Stratfor analysts fail to notice the obvious logical contradiction
        They have an order: "Don't notice!"
        And, as the saying goes: "Nothing logical, just business!"


        Open "secret" data for this kind of experts. Most likely partners have diarrhea from envy.
        1. Kasym
          Kasym 10 February 2016 16: 49
          +1
          It becomes clear why they "slept through" the rearmament of the Russian Army and often have a wrong idea of ​​our reality. Because of such analysts and their articles. More often than not, even the fifth point is not taken off the chair. And there is no question of learning the language and being "on the spot". BTT, airplanes, helicopters (all in the majority) and even leased nuclear submarines located in the Armed Forces of India - all have Soviet-Russian. roots, they watch Indian parades !? hi
    2. Drmadfisher
      Drmadfisher 11 February 2016 04: 41
      0
      Stratfor is their Petrosyan, but they don’t understand the humor
  2. inkass_98
    inkass_98 10 February 2016 13: 39
    +6
    We sit, waiting for the collapse of the domestic defense industry. Judging by the latest events, rumors about her "death are greatly exaggerated" (C).
    1. g1v2
      g1v2 10 February 2016 15: 38
      +1
      The international arms market last year was estimated at about $ 90 billion. We have mastered up to 13-15 billion from it. From the export of mineral products and raw materials, we only received $ 9 billion over the past 171 months, and this is at low prices for oil and gas. Only from the export of petroleum products we received more than $ 50 billion of this amount. Incidentally, in comparison with the export of petroleum products, the export of weapons is only a useful bonus for us, not a sacred cow. Including the loss of any weapons markets is unpleasant, but not fatal. request It seems that the West is already completely at a loss and does not understand why our economy should have collapsed, but all they managed to do was bend it by 4-5 percent in 2 years due to the collapse of oil prices. Now they have decided that the whole business is in the arms trade and they are trying to squeeze us out of part of the markets in the hope that this will really hurt us. Well, let them try - judging by their losses from low oil prices, they are more likely to harm themselves. hi
      1. voyaka uh
        voyaka uh 10 February 2016 18: 43
        -4
        "but all they managed to do was to bend it by 4-5 percent in 2 years" ///

        4-5 percent minus is a colossal economic breakdown.
        Normal rate of economic development: from +2 +4 percent
        for developed countries, up to +5 +12 for developing countries.
        Those. Russia's economy was supposed to gain somewhere around +10 + 12% in two years.
        (China grew by + 15% over the same period).
        1. Awaz
          Awaz 10 February 2016 21: 34
          0
          Imagine your budget for the state one and suddenly for a couple of years you’re not going up, but going down by two-three percent a year. You won’t even notice it if you don’t dig. The growth economy is important primarily for those who survive through inflation and those who are mired in debt.
      2. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 10 February 2016 20: 30
        0
        Quote: g1v2
        Now they have decided that the whole business is in the arms trade and they are trying to squeeze us out of part of the markets in the hope that this will really hurt us. Well, let them try - judging by their losses from low oil prices, they are more likely to harm themselves.

        Meanwhile, after the start of the operation in Syria, in only three months, Russia concluded contracts for the supply of its weapons for more than $ 10 billion.
        This is despite the fact that we have not yet shown everything there)))
  3. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 10 February 2016 13: 39
    +9
    Yes, bresh what you want. Do not choke with saliva of delight from your "conclusions". "Stratfor breaches - Russia is coming."
  4. atamankko
    atamankko 10 February 2016 13: 39
    +5
    These jackals do not get used to lying, and suddenly someone pecks.
    1. Amurets
      Amurets 10 February 2016 13: 49
      0
      Quote: inkass_98
      We sit, waiting for the collapse of the domestic defense industry. Judging by recent events, rumors about her "death are greatly exaggerated" (C)

      The fact that the rumors are exaggerated is a no brainer, but what confuses me is the compatibility of Russian and American equipment? It will not work, as in Libya, activating the "bookmarks" by the Americans and NATO will disable Indian equipment, but the American The Indians also put electronics on our products.
  5. 71rus
    71rus 10 February 2016 13: 40
    +1
    "Experts" Stratfor found the problems of the Russian "defense", where they do not exist

    Not for you, "friends" to understand the "problems" of our defense industry, it is better to look for shortcomings in yours!
  6. triglav
    triglav 10 February 2016 13: 44
    +3
    There are plenty of such "analysts" in the West. Unclear. why do our media quote them. And it would be nice to have your own analysts already. And to quote them.
    1. LÄRZ
      LÄRZ 10 February 2016 13: 49
      +2
      Quote: triglav
      And it would be nice to have our own analysts. And quote them.

      Yeah, in the image of Stratfor.
  7. Berber
    Berber 10 February 2016 13: 45
    +1
    There are enemies - that means we are worth something. And judging by our enemies, we are worth a lot. Therefore, one should not pay attention to the category of these saliva-spraying analysts.
  8. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 10 February 2016 13: 47
    +1
    “The loss of the Indian market could destroy the Russian defense industry”

    Firstly, it’s stupid to think that the Russian military-industrial complex rests only on India. Secondly, if you take Stratfor Experts seriously, then you really should think about your future. But this is sheer stupidity. The advice is to read less on Western experts, especially at night.
  9. afrikanez
    afrikanez 10 February 2016 13: 48
    +1
    It is not clear only, for what reason, is this journalist quoted forever by Stratfor? There is nothing left, what can I quote or what ???
    1. LÄRZ
      LÄRZ 10 February 2016 14: 12
      +3
      Quote: afrikanez
      It is not clear only, for what reason, is this journalist quoted forever by Stratfor? There is nothing left, what can I quote or what ???

      From the book of K. I. Chukovsky "Children Speak": "Dad told me ..." "But Mom herself told me ..." "But Daddy is Mom!" So are the media niches: "But Stratfor itself is the best!"
  10. 31rus
    31rus 10 February 2016 13: 50
    +1
    Dear, excellent, the military-industrial complex will perish, fall apart, even if they think so, the stronger the shock will be then, but seriously, this publication simply fulfills the order
  11. Alexander 3
    Alexander 3 10 February 2016 13: 51
    0
    Paying attention to barking mongrels is not our style. Obama when he said that he personally tore up our economy to shreds. But when he was asked what was more important for him, he said (fate of his daughter). Where are you not afraid to make mistakes- (in running the state) .
  12. Hooks
    Hooks 10 February 2016 13: 54
    +1
    "The economy is in tatters, the defense industry is in a coma, the state is isolated ..." Aha, shchazz! Have you already heard. We rested and we work, we work!
  13. russmensch
    russmensch 10 February 2016 13: 56
    0
    I wonder if they write these reports for us or to reassure ourselves? Well, if for us, then I think we have more information. If for yourself - then rejoice banderlog, but do not be surprised at surprises and various surprises.
  14. Koronik
    Koronik 10 February 2016 13: 58
    +2
    . "Other manufacturers are taking Russia's place, and Stratfor cites examples of their success. These are deals with the United States for the supply of helicopters and transport aircraft, with South Korea for self-propelled howitzers, with Israel for UAVs, air defense systems and ATGMs, as well as an early contract with France for 36 Raphales.
    None of these transactions have been officially concluded, all this is a game to reduce the price of Russian weapons, is it really not clear. Nobody wants to overpay, and I don’t need anyone to have a varied brand of weapons, as well as difficulties in its maintenance.
  15. Tusv
    Tusv 10 February 2016 14: 17
    +1
    All stratphoric translucency. Urya !!! FGFA close, F-35 open. Nude nude
  16. gg.na
    gg.na 10 February 2016 14: 25
    +1
    Their envy is black lol eating! wassat That blather what horrible! laughing Yes, let’s let yourself be blown away by them, but this acre is nothing more bully !!! Blather to us yes for fun !!! lol
  17. Taygerus
    Taygerus 10 February 2016 15: 02
    0
    DREAMING IS NOT HARMFUL, LET YOURSELF SOAK, CONSOLIDATE YOURSELF DAMAGES
  18. TVM - 75
    TVM - 75 10 February 2016 15: 46
    0
    Recently, the West, either under the influence of the states, or on its own initiative, has been turning into a madhouse. The obvious, double morality, the support of fascism and terrorists, the exaltation and propaganda of blueness and drugs, the cult of violence in everything are not noticed. Bad it all ends. Garden and Gomorrah.
  19. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 10 February 2016 15: 48
    -1
    We need to reduce the volume of arms for export and increase the share of government orders for our aircraft. But it is possible to sell abroad and grain, the same currency will be. Nefig to sell the latest weapons systems to everyone in a row, few by themselves.
  20. hartlend
    hartlend 10 February 2016 19: 30
    0
    Quote: polite people
    It seems that this is not an attempt to objectively analyze the situation, but a propaganda throw-in.

    Finally, the author of the article received his sight.
  21. Vadim237
    Vadim237 10 February 2016 21: 06
    0
    It is interesting to know - how much weapons do we have on the left?