Military Review

Missile alarm

3 February, Japanese Defense Minister Gen Nakatani announced that they had been ordered to knock down a launch vehicle that North Korea intends to launch in the coming days. For these purposes, the Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems were deployed at the military bases of the country. In fairness it should be noted that the Japanese military promised to shoot down a rocket only if she or her fragments would threaten the country. Since unpleasant incidents with North Korean missiles have happened before, this remark was not at all superfluous. Officially, it was announced that the SM-3 anti-missile missiles, which are part of the URO destroyers arsenal, are set on alert. This rocket is the most long-range means of countering the aerospace attack that Tokyo has. Moreover, it is planned to jointly test with the Americans in the Hawaiian Islands a new version of the anti-missile SM-3 Block IIA with a range of 2500 km.

If the North Korean rocket is still brought down by the Self-Defense Forces, then this, in fact, will be the first case of a direct military confrontation between the two countries from 2001, when a naval battle took place near the Amami-Osumi islands. The DPRK's geography is such that a rocket taking off with a satellite or warhead will certainly fly either over China or over Japan, which, naturally, does not please the above-mentioned countries, where they are well aware of the questionable quality of North Korean rocket technology.

In fact, the anxiety of the Japanese is understandable, since Tokyo has long had problems with covering its own not only outer space, but also airspace. They can not be called critical, but they definitely are. For example, several years ago, the F-4 fighter jets began to be actively discarded in order to replace them with about three times less F-35 Lightning II. Although there are many claims to the F-35 in the United States itself, Americans are not able to offer anything more modern: the newest F-22 still does not sell, but the Japanese do not want to acquire the F / A-18 Hornet themselves. Of course, the Land of the Rising Sun also leads its own development of a new generation fighter (Mitsubishi ATD-X), but as a rule, it takes about ten years from a prototype to a full-fledged fighter.

Also during the Great East Japan Earthquake, from the 12 to 20 F-2 fighters, the Japanese version of the American F-16, were destroyed. We still haven’t succeeded in replacing them: for this we need to restore production lines that have long been destroyed. So it is possible that the Japanese will also begin to glance toward the F / A-18 Hornet, as Canada and Taiwan are already doing.

The Japanese own defense programs are developing quite slowly, and it is often easier to buy from the Americans. In particular, according to media reports, the assembly of the first F-35 fighter and V-22 convertiplanes has already begun at the factories of Texas and Florida. Also placed orders for an additional 40 UH-60 helicopters for deck aviation large helicopter carriers "Izumo" and "Kaga" and AWACS E-2 Hawkeye aircraft. In general, the Self-Defense Forces do not make a secret of their new strategy: the aviation and navy must become not only more powerful, but also faster in order to ensure the "rapid return of the islands captured by the enemy." Obviously, the main resource in today's difficult international situation is time. If not to develop your own, it would be logical to buy the best abroad.

Now about any air confrontation between Pyongyang and Tokyo can not speak. The technological difference between enemy aviation is not even one, but two or three generations, if not more. In the event of a direct conflict, the North Korean air forces will be crushed over the Sea of ​​Japan. The hopelessly outdated fleet of northerners, consisting mainly of MiG-19, MiG-21 and MiG-23, simply will not be able to fight back the enemy so advanced. The only thing that really worries the General Staff of Japan is that Beijing can provide extensive military-technical assistance to the DPRK. For obvious reasons, the South Koreans are also concerned.

However, now China is unlikely to actively help its northeastern ally for three main reasons. First, a large-scale military reorganization is under way in the PRC, and it takes time and considerable time to complete it. Secondly, the election results in Taiwan frankly unsuccessful for Beijing divert forces to the south. Third, the endless blackmail, provocations and exorbitant inquiries of the DPRK seem to bore the Chinese ruling elite. It bothers so much that the satellite, apparently, is ready to simply surrender, provided that the Allies will get a victory at a higher price, and China, therefore, will receive a respite of several years.

Returning to the relations of Japan and the DPRK, it is safe to say that the launch of the rocket will only strengthen in the Japanese ruling circles the positions of those who call for the rejection of the ninth article of the Constitution and the creation of full-fledged armed forces. It is unlikely that Kim Jong-un hoped for such an effect, but the process has already been launched. The recent high-profile arrest in Tokyo of North Korean intelligence officer Pak Jae-yong is also called upon to sway Japanese society towards drastic security changes. If this happens, the consequences will soon be felt by the entire region.
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  1. corporal
    corporal 5 February 2016 06: 14
    In fairness, it should be noted that the Japanese military promised to bring down the rocket only if she or her wreckage would threaten the country.
    The Japanese in their own right.
    Another question: "Does the DPRK have the right to test missile launches?" And then literally the other day it sounded here that the UN allegedly forbade them to indulge in missile technology. Is it really so? Can the UN prohibit someone?
    1. Vladimir 23rus
      Vladimir 23rus 5 February 2016 08: 43
      Is this really so? Can the UN ban anyone?
      Maybe whom the Americans will point to. By the way, and sanctions with the embargo may introduce only UN. But whoever pays that girl and dances.
    2. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 5 February 2016 19: 57
      The UN requires the DPRK to comply with the agreements under which the DPRK does not have the right to develop nuclear weapons and their delivery vehicles. Since the DPRK violates the agreements signed by them, the UN may impose sanctions.
  2. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 5 February 2016 06: 28
    And the Japs of Jap will be worn out? The rocket may still not be launched for a year, and it’s unconstitutional - maybe everything will go fine with the North Koreans ???
  3. Bayonet
    Bayonet 5 February 2016 06: 55
    "... the Japanese military promised to shoot down the missile only if it or its debris threaten the country."
    Briefly and clearly, everything else is verbiage! hi
  4. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 5 February 2016 08: 19
    Japanese Defense Minister Geng Nakatani says they have been ordered to shoot down a launch vehicle

    Do such "harsh" words remind you of the statements of Turkish leaders? When in politics everything begins to be done according to a template, it is not difficult to determine where this template was cut.
  5. valerii41
    valerii41 5 February 2016 09: 34
    Japanese noise raised a panic rocket and so will fall without any interference
  6. LVMI1980
    LVMI1980 5 February 2016 09: 44
    I wonder how they will physically shoot her down?
    from the wiki:
    "Patriot" PAC-3 air defense missile system was tested in 1997. It was put into service in 2001. The probability of hitting an aircraft - 0,8-0,9, a tactical missile - 0,6-0,8 with one missile in the absence of interference. targets - 1600 m / s [16]. The height of the destruction of ballistic targets - up to 15 km [11]. It was also reported about the increase in the height of destruction of ballistic targets up to 20 km "

    rocket will fly higher wink
    1. devastator
      devastator 5 February 2016 11: 54
      Quote: LVMI1980
      I wonder how they will physically shoot her down?
      from the wiki:
      "Patriot" PAC-3 air defense missile system was tested in 1997.

      No one will try to shoot down ICBMs with the Patriot.
      If you can try to shoot down ICBMs with something, then SM-3, for this purpose it was mainly developed. It will be extremely interesting to find out if the interception succeeds. Because if the North Korean ICBM cannot be intercepted, the very idea of ​​the American missile defense will be discredited - this will mean that it is, in principle, useless against our and Chinese missiles.
  7. Belousov
    Belousov 5 February 2016 10: 28
    The North Koreans seem to have gotten everyone.
  8. qwert
    qwert 5 February 2016 11: 13
    The Chinese will not support the DPRK in case of trouble. Since long ago they left the communist "rails" for the capitalist ones. And under capitalism, the main criterion is profit.
    The Japanese should be afraid only of the Koreans themselves. These guys will fight like the Soviet soldiers until the last soldier. And civilians will be partisan. You can defeat them only by destroying everyone. And at the same time, the Japanese or South Koreans will feel enormous, despite technical superiority.
  9. qwert
    qwert 5 February 2016 11: 17
    Quote: Belousov
    The North Koreans seem to have gotten everyone.

    Well Americans for sure. They do not want to accept their democratic model. And I like this little but proud people who choose where to go. At the same time, they often smile in photographs. Maybe really, the main thing in this life is not dollars at all? Who knows....
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 5 February 2016 11: 50
      Not everything is so simple with the DPRK, and despite all the hysteria that has now been raised in the so-called "democratic countries", Pyongyang promises to launch only a satellite and not a strike rocket, China and Iran will support it, and Russia, after all, our Foreign Ministry has only expressed concern and excitement smile
      The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed its excitement with the launch of a launch vehicle in North Korea
      Representatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry expressed their concern about the planned launch of a launch vehicle in North Korea
      So the maximum that will come from the outside will simply threaten with a finger. Well, maybe Japan, the US and the EU will strengthen the already severe sanctions on their part. And China has been and will remain the main economic and military partner of the DPRK.
      It should be noted that China is the main trade and economic partner of North Korea. According to foreign experts, China accounts for more than 70% of DPRK's foreign trade.
  10. Dimon19661
    Dimon19661 5 February 2016 15: 27
    You don’t have to evaluate the DPRK Armed Forces, if everything was so sad for them, this country would not exist for a long time. The DPRK Armed Forces directly threaten the capital of South Korea with conventional artillery systems, within whose radius it is located. Take a look just in case, how many people are there It lives. This is the main lever of that system of blackmail - which the DPRK uses.