Military Review

Erdogan. Is it possible to "calculate" a cat who imagines himself a lion?

132
Today, only lazy people do not discuss the aggravation of Russian-Turkish relations. Military experts, analysts, political scientists. And indeed, the topic worries everyone. And the reason is clear. Russia and a member of NATO. Russia and Europe. Will politicians be able to avoid a real war, can common sense win over ambitions?


Erdogan. Is it possible to "calculate" a cat who imagines himself a lion?


I will not describe the background to the conflict; practically anyone who is interested in international affairs is up to date. But it is necessary to mention the deep essence. And the essence is simple. Erdogan almost from the very beginning of his presidency, the main goal of his activity was the re-establishment of the great Turkish empire. Turkey, in his understanding, should become the leading state in the region. A state that dictates to the rest not only politics, but also a way of thinking.

In principle, nothing new. Full copyright of what the US is doing today. And who is the last for Turkey, it also makes no sense to deploy.

The Eastern mentality helped the Turkish president bypass sharp corners in relations with neighbors. Turks got along well with the EU and Russia. The country increased economically. Ros and international authority of Erdogan.

The plan was carried out exactly until the moment when Russia decided to really help the Syrian people in the fight against the DAISH gangsters. No, Russian diplomacy worked. And she worked with dignity. Language will not turn blame the department Lavrov in poor performance.

The actions of the Russian Aerospace Forces completely contradicted Erdogan’s goals. Today, there is no reason to even dream of a violent overthrow of the Syrian president and a coup d'état. The cries of "Assad must go" to put it mildly, quieted to a whisper. Moreover, in the Arab world, the authority of Assad is growing. And the growth of the prestige of the president automatically enhances the prestige of the country.

The same can be said about the situation with Iran. Perennial mockery of the Iranian people and the state ends. Ends because Iran has learned to live in a blockade.

For Turkey, this means a return to the "total stall". Leadership with such powerful neighbors can be forgotten. Let the term “powerful state” be applicable to Syria only in the future, but for some reason there is certainty about the Syrian future. Syria and Iran perfectly remember the treachery of the Turks. East is a dark matter. But not for oriental people.

An attempt to start a conflict between Russia and NATO did not bring dividends to Erdogan either. Western partners in the bloc, to put it mildly, sent the Turks to solve their problems on their own. And Russia has dealt a serious economic blow to the entire economy of Turkey. The power of Russia is subject to much less shock than the Turkish economy. Yes, and neighbors gladly occupy vacant seats in the Russian market.

But the main thing was that the decline in the economy led to increased discontent with Erdogan himself. Moreover, this dissatisfaction was very quickly used by nationalist forces inside Turkey itself. The Kurdish partisans took heart. In some of the Black Sea provinces, they talked about the autonomy of other nations. The "crackling" inside the state is already clearly felt by all. The country is bursting at the seams. Let it is not yet explicit, but information about this appears in open sources.

Erdogan now resembles a cat, which the dogs have cornered. No exit. And the main thought in the cat head is no longer about freedom. There, the thought of how to live on. Attack angry dogs and die heroically from fangs? Or maybe admit defeat and hope for the mercy of the winners? Then at least ghostly hope is preserved.

These are the thoughts that should be analyzed in more detail.

Attack and ... win. In principle, Erdogan does not set himself such a task. He understands that the forces are not equal. Even with the backstage support of his policies by some NATO countries, the majority will not fit into the conflict with Russia. And the majority is just the strongest and really capable of somehow resisting the Russian army. But fools in Europe every day less and less.

So, you need to put Russia in a position in which any of its actions would play into the hands of the Turks. First of all, it is necessary to isolate Russia's possible allies from the talks on Syria. And who is the most likely ally? First of all, the Kurds.

This is what we see today at the Geneva talks. Kurds withdrawn from these negotiations at the insistence of Turkey. Withdrawn, although any sensible politician understands that to solve the problem without the Kurds will not work. Without solving the Kurdish problem to solve the Syrian impossible. Then what is the point in all Geneva demarches and loud statements, if the script is familiar to us again? This, forgive, is another Minsk.

What will the next step be? It is from Erdogan?

Somehow, experts did not particularly notice the announcement of the "orange" level for the Air Force. And in vain. The fact is that this level simply did not exist in Turkey before this incident. A completely new reality for the Turkish Air Force. And it means that now for the start of hostilities, the solution of a particular pilot is sufficient. The pilot decides that he is in danger - he will start shooting. Not a president or prime minister, but a simple pilot.

And the majority of the land forces are trying to ignore the concentration of ground troops in the border areas. The country has the right to move in its territory as it pleases.

The weak link of the Syrian border is precisely those 98 km with Turkey. It is there that the operation to humiliate Russia will be carried out. Possible scenario looks like this.

Turkish regular troops enter the territory of Syria. They occupy the border area and quickly create camps for refugees. This is a matter of one day. Especially when you consider that the border is controlled by ISIS for the time being.

And in what position is Russia? Bomb? It is impossible. "Peaceful refugees" Turkomans are becoming a human shield for the Turkish army. Do not bomb? Then you have to give a damn about arrangements with Assad. Or introduce land units to conduct ground operations. That is, in any case, Russia is violating the promises made previously by the president.

The implementation of such a plan will allow Erdogan to strengthen his position. There is, however, one nuance. The opportunity to get on the nose still remains. Get even the forces that today Russia has in Syria. The lightning speed of such a strike was demonstrated by the operation to rescue the pilots of a wounded bomber.

And in order to rule out this possibility, the Turks urgently need to restore personal contacts between the presidents or, at least, between the foreign ministers. Guilty pilot will be punished, if that. And the head of state will prevent a global war.

The second option of action "driven cat", as we remember, is the option of captivity and favors from dogs. Consider it.

What do we see today in Syria? And we see two interesting points. The first is the success of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Syrian army. And the second - the forced inclusion of the United States and the coalition in the fight against LIH. Americans can not today be engaged in the war, which was engaged before. We need real success. Real blows.

Moreover, the USA more and more realize that it is no longer possible to solve the Syrian problems without Russia. That is why we see frequent meetings of Lavrov and Kerry. Everyone understands everything, but for some reason they are embarrassed to call things by their names. And these meetings are nothing but spitting primarily in the Turks.

The United States and Russia today speak without intermediaries. More precisely, without ballast. And the results of these conversations are brought to the attention of the parties. Including Turkey. Thus, we see who is who on the political map of the world. Who decides, and who is sitting next to with a smart look.

In the end, ISIS in any case will be extruded from the territory of Syria. Where - the second question. The main thing - Syria will be liberated. And Turkey?

Turkey in this case for quite a long time will completely fall out of the political process in the region. What can you negotiate with this country? There are stronger, more authoritative, richer. Not only with ambitions, but also with oil and gas.

But this is not as important as the billions promised by the Turks from the EU. Billions of refugees. And so they may not come. And the president of Turkey will receive increased unrest in the country. And the threat of a coup. Real threat.

Even the search for contacts with Putin fits into the scheme almost perfectly. There will be contacts - there is an opportunity to somehow participate in the “liberation” of Syria. Together with the Russians.

So, what conclusion can be made in the situation created by Erdogan?

Turkey today is cornered. Attempts to scare Russia NATO failed. Erdogan lost the remnants of political weight in regional affairs. Inside Turkey ripen forces capable of breaking the country. Nationalists raise their heads. ISIL militants today pose a real danger to the stability of the country. And the president cannot drive them out of his territory. Too stuck in the oil trade.

Syria is practically isolated from Turkish politicians and diplomats. Iran is building up muscles. Americans and Europeans are accusing Erdogan of louder and louder support for the militants. Relations with Russia are extremely strained.

It is impossible to predict the future course of events on 100%. "Cat" in the corner. What he chooses, no one knows. Even the cat itself. Our task is to think over his next steps and be ready for active counteraction.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 2 February 2016 06: 43
    31
    Turkey is no longer a cat cornered, it is already a gluttonous jackal. The surest way out is to shoot the jackal.
    1. Dembel77
      Dembel77 2 February 2016 07: 42
      +5
      Our task is to think over his (cat?) Next steps and be ready for active opposition.
      And who is afraid of cats here? Yes, let them even gather in a flock! Even somehow the state became a little disappointed. The main thing is to fight off larger predators, this is the task's task.
      1. Riv
        Riv 2 February 2016 07: 45
        36
        Do not you think that the lumberjack in the picture of the khan? From the host with a hatchet do not shrug.
        1. andre
          andre 2 February 2016 08: 54
          +5
          I think this wahlak can try to repeat something either in the spirit of the downing of an airplane. It's a shame if we swallow again !!!
        2. Batia
          Batia 2 February 2016 10: 50
          +5
          Oshibaissi. I knew a taiga (near Ussuriysk), who dealt with a clubfoot with a knife. True, it was "white-breasted", it is smaller than "beetle".
        3. Mikhail Krapivin
          Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 15: 42
          +7
          Quote: Riv
          Do not you think that the lumberjack in the picture of the khan? From the host with a hatchet do not shrug.


          Yeah, and the mongrel will not help. Turkish
        4. Nyrobsky
          Nyrobsky 2 February 2016 16: 09
          +4
          Quote: Riv
          Do not you think that the lumberjack in the picture of the khan? From the host with a hatchet do not shrug.

          Khan (((Paws are running in front of the skull, hooked before the ax hits. The mass is healthy, it’ll simply be covered by inertia. Here, he can only hope for the help of the dog. My friend put 7 shots from the carbine 5,45 into him, when he went to the frontal and all the same was under it. For two months in the hospital he was lying back.
          1. not main
            not main 2 February 2016 23: 52
            0
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            I have a friend of 7 shots from a carbine 5,45 put in it, when he went to the frontal and still was under it

            The only question is: Who did your friend hunt for from 5.45? Maybe a hazel grouse? For a bear, even 7.62 * 56 is not impressive!
            1. Weyland
              Weyland 3 February 2016 01: 59
              0
              Quote: non-primary
              And who did your acquaintance hunt for with 5.45? Maybe a hazel grouse? For a bear, even 7.62 * 56 is not impressive!


              It depends on where you get ... There were many cases when felled bears from 5.45 - but many times more cases when the bear received somewhat deadly wounds, managed to get a hunter!
          2. Weyland
            Weyland 3 February 2016 02: 23
            0
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            Paws in front of the skull run, hooks before it hits with an ax. The mass is healthy, it will simply be frozen by inertia.


            If the hunter very Experienced and agile, with an excellent reaction (and without it it’s better not to go to a bear) - he will leave to the right with a turn on his right foot, let the bear pass by himself and cut into the base of the skull. Otherwise, of course, by inertia it will be silent for itself!
          3. Weyland
            Weyland 3 February 2016 02: 23
            0
            Quote: Nyrobsky
            Paws in front of the skull run, hooks before it hits with an ax. The mass is healthy, it will simply be frozen by inertia.


            If the hunter very Experienced and agile, with an excellent reaction (and without it it’s better not to go to a bear) - he will leave to the right with a turn on his right foot, let the bear pass by himself and cut into the base of the skull. Otherwise, of course, by inertia it will be silent for itself! Classic w-shu: leaving the line of attack.
            1. Pomeranian
              Pomeranian 3 February 2016 09: 44
              0
              Quote: Weyland
              Classic w-shu: leaving the line of attack.

              All bear hunters know woo shu. The ax in this case is a good thing, but the main thing is a gun and a dog. The dog will distract you anyway and give you a chance to recharge. And "going to the right with a U-turn" is fantastic winked
              1. Weyland
                Weyland 3 February 2016 22: 57
                0
                Quote: Pomoryanin
                All bear hunters know woo shu.


                Duc, and from whom did the Chinese learn about woo-shu? laughing
                The creator of Wushu Bodhidharma in Shaolin is portrayed with golden hair and is called "bearded barbarian"Or"blue-eyed brahmin"... smile

                And about the "chance to recharge" - something seems to me that this picture is one and a half hundred years old. The then gun took at least half a minute to reload negative . However, at that time, many hunters for this very reason preferred rifle to rifle.
                1. Pomeranian
                  Pomeranian 5 February 2016 10: 09
                  0
                  Quote: Weyland
                  And about the "chance to recharge" - something seems to me that this picture is one and a half hundred years old.

                  I joked about woo shu, I just liked it:
                  Quote: Weyland
                  will leave to the right with a turn on the right leg, let the bear pass by itself and cut it into the base of the skull

                  It's just that, due to the specifics of my current job, a meeting with a bear is not a wonder for me. I knew one peasant, he went to the bear with a 12-gauge single-barreled trigger gun, one cartridge in the barrel, the second in the teeth. There were also misfires, but ALWAYS the bear was distracted by the dog, so there was enough time to recharge and shoot the animal in the head. During his life, he shot about 50 of them, for which he was called "bear death". So in vain the peasant took up the ax, it is necessary to reload the rifle while the dog will tear the bear by the pants.
        5. Weyland
          Weyland 3 February 2016 01: 49
          0
          Quote: Riv
          Do not you think that the lumberjack in the picture of the khan?


          Where did you see the lumberjack? laughing
          Judging by the presence of a dog and a gun (which misfired or missed), this is a hunter, and an ax is a "weapon of the last chance"! It all depends on the experience and skill of both parties to the conflict.: Take an interest in the origin of the coat of arms of Yaroslavl at your leisure! because Yaroslav was lame ...
        6. The comment was deleted.
      2. Enot-poloskun
        Enot-poloskun 2 February 2016 08: 19
        10
        Russia will not talk with Erdogan ... Nothing ... We need to wait until Erdogan is overthrown. It is desirable that this be the army, and not the Islamists.
        1. Voice of the Mind
          Voice of the Mind 2 February 2016 09: 39
          -11 qualifying.
          Turkey is cornered today. Attempts to scare Russia into NATO failed. Erdogan lost political vestiges in regional affairs. Within Turkey, forces are ripening that can tear the country apart.

          In what parallel reality is this happening?
          Erdogan set the goal of his activity to recreate the great Turkish empire

          In principle, he has a chance. We will look at the regions where the Turkic population lives and recall that the Kazakh-Kazakhs easily adapt to the Turkish language and they can easily be found working in Turkish hotels.
          1. aksakal
            aksakal 2 February 2016 16: 55
            11
            Quote: Voice of Mind
            We will look at the regions where the Turkic population lives and recall that the Kazakh-Kazakhs easily adapt to the Turkish language and they can easily be found working in Turkish hotels.
            - there is a difference in mentality with the Kazakhs ... In the 90s, in one of the oil towns of Kazakhstan - "New Uzen", there was an outbreak of violence - the Kazakhs harshly cut the Turks, the intervention of the riot police saved from the final cutting out. They began to find out the reason - it turns out that for the same job, well, the same job as a pombour, a local worker received three times less, the Turks had lunch for two hours, for the locals - 30 minutes, etc. Neither in the USSR, nor later, already in the 90s, in those Russian and even American companies, there was no SUCH (such open segregation along ethnic lines)!
            In general, that Turkish company (it was a contractor for Tengizchevroil) was expelled from the Kazakhstani market.
            Well, the further work of the Turks in Kazakhstan - and I worked with them - led to the fact that the Kazakhs belong to the Turks without undue reverence. The fact that the Russian Tatars were very upset and tensed - perhaps the Turks like the Turks, but in Kazakhstan their shares are quoted below average. 70 years of life in another family affects. Although the Turks are very active, in Turkish universities you can study on more facilitated conditions, etc. Russia has something to work on in Kazakhstan.
            Here on the forum you can often read grievances on various occasions, when the production of either helicopters, or diesel locomotives, or armored vehicles was not established with Russia, like, "eh-you, soyuznichki!" Well, if Russia itself is absent from the market, does not show any activity, does not offer education at universities, does not offer medical care in especially difficult cases, or is more expensive than in China or even in Israel, in business many things are on more stringent conditions than those of the Turks or the Chinese, and often even tougher than that of Western companies, in short, Russia behaves as not a union, but as a full-fledged foreign state. The most effective way to build up influence is through the economic, humanitarian and cultural (which includes education) spheres, the most ineffective is through military force. And the Kremlin knows about it, but does little in this direction.
            And Turkish expansion in Turkic-speaking countries can be effectively combated either by equivalently building up its expansion in the economic, humanitarian and cultural spheres, or by the destruction of Turkey. The second way out is also the way out, and they have already come close enough to this denouement, it remains only for the Turks to cross the border in Latakia or take an air battle with the Russians, but this situation has a lot of risks - up to a global nuclear catastrophe.
            1. Che Guevara
              Che Guevara 2 February 2016 18: 17
              0
              Aesakal, I completely agree with you, +++, you can find the right arguments and the right words, even when they provoke you
            2. Voice of the Mind
              Voice of the Mind 2 February 2016 19: 52
              0
              Quote: aksakal
              it remains only for the Turks .... to undertake an air battle with the Russians, but the risks of this situation are too much - right up to the global nuclear disaster

              Not at all. Recall the USSR.
              The USSR had its own “Syria” in the form of Afghanistan and its own “Turkey” - Pakistan. From 1986 to 1988, seven Soviet military aircraft were shot down by Pakistan. Ours in response shot down one F-16. And that’s it.
              And no one started a nuclear war because of this, so do not escalate.
        2. Vega
          Vega 2 February 2016 15: 20
          0
          If they overthrow it will be the Islamists with the connivance or help of the army.
          1. nov_tech.vrn
            nov_tech.vrn 2 February 2016 16: 29
            0
            and the arrogant Saxons will put another cross in the crossword puzzle without taking their seats off the sofa
      3. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 2 February 2016 08: 42
        0
        I draw your attention to the first drains of the song ...
        [img] http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn0x0vxMAI8 [/ img]
      4. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 3 February 2016 09: 40
        0
        And so everyone reacts violently to the picture? Bear, Eka unseen.
    2. atalef
      atalef 2 February 2016 08: 09
      24
      Quote: aszzz888
      Turkey is no longer a cat cornered, it is already a gluttonous jackal. The surest way out is to shoot the jackal.

      Erdogan probably imagines himself * Cupid *. but in reality he was and will remain * Timur *
    3. MOISEY
      MOISEY 2 February 2016 08: 50
      +8
      Quote: aszzz888
      Turkey is no longer a cat cornered, it is already a gluttonous jackal. The surest way out is to shoot the jackal.


      Well, how did you get it, homegrown warriors. Well, you thought what would happen after Erdogan was "shot". Turkey is a very complicated and radically nationalized country. Yes, it will simply be torn apart by internal contradictions, and the result will be a second Ukraine. BUT Turkey is a NATO member. In the first week, the US interventionist military forces will be deployed. Do you have any idea what an American naval base is permanently deployed in the Black Sea? This is towards the north. Further, on the west - Who am I asking you will control the Bosphorus? - again, the United States. In the east, a carnage will immediately begin in the direction of Armenia, because Turkish nationalists will no longer be bound by anything - and there are Russian military bases there. Well this is ALL TYNDETS - a hot war between the Russian Federation and the United States by the hands of the Turks. Further, Assad is also not a bastard, and most likely, in order to protect himself, he will conduct an operation to annex southern Turkey, and Iran will certainly help him in this, for all the problems brought by the Turks. Again, CYPRUS - it is half captured by Turkey about what will begin there after the disappearance of the upper protectorate, there is no need to say - the night of long knives will seem like a children's holiday compared to this massacre.
      So - ONLY POLITICAL SETTLEMENT. Well, by the way - Not a single revolution in the world has brought PEACE, but only pain, blood and death, and then the revolution, as a rule, devours those who carried it ...
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 2 February 2016 09: 24
        +6
        "Cat" in the corner. Nobody knows what he will choose.

        - Nagadit, "do not go to the grandmother." Or from fear, or from harm, but the corner will be dirty. So we need to get ready to poke this cat, snout in his own guamno.
      2. andrew42
        andrew42 2 February 2016 09: 37
        16
        Oh oh oh. Is Turkey not an "American military base" in relation to Russia? The size of the whole of Asia Minor, and even on significant self-financing. New threats do not arise, all are old. But the operational capability of the "Turkish scimitar" will actually decrease by half, and no Yankes bases will compensate for this. It goes on even more trenchant: "Is Assad annexing southern Turkey?" Why not Florida? Assad needs it? Having on hand a multi-tribal and multi-confessional country, which cannot come to a dialogue inside. With unconditional support, God forbid, 50% of the population in the SAR. This makes no sense. The main geopolitical danger is if the United States begins to patronize anti-Assad Kurdish nationalists, that is, replace Daesh with Kurds "a la Barzani", and deploy the Kurdish military component from the Turkish direction to Damascus. This is logical for amers, and on this they are working. According to the old scheme: instead of the Mujahideen - the Taliban, instead of the Taliban - Al-Qaeda, instead of Al-Qaeda - ISIS, and so on.
      3. Nyrobsky
        Nyrobsky 2 February 2016 16: 49
        +3
        Quote: MOISEY
        Well, how did you get it, homegrown warriors. Well, you thought what would happen after Erdogan was "shot". Turkey is a very complicated and radically nationalized country. Yes, it will simply be torn apart by internal contradictions, and the result will be a second Ukraine. BUT Turkey is a NATO member ...... (and further in the text)

        You are so vain.
        Just the departure of Erdogan could be the solution to the growing problems. The longer he will be in power, the more there will be.
        He had already begun the internal conflict by strengthening punitive measures against the Kurds and bringing down Turkish business after Russia imposed sanctions on the fact of the attack on our plane. And he created all the external risks for Turkey with his playful hands even earlier, in order to amuse his ambitions.
        His departure - be it voluntary and early, or through a crosshair, will definitely cause a pause in the degradation of relations with neighbors and the collapse of Turkey. Then, there will be the usual procedures - an election race, the election of a new "sultan" and, quite possibly, a turn towards peace and restoration of Turkey's image from a regional provocateur to a regional player. Business will support.
        Another question is, will they let him jump? It seems to me not. It is not for nothing that his "partners" gave him to his ears to get smeared with stolen oil and support of terrorists. They have enough compromising evidence for him and his family for several life sentences. So he's a forced pawn. The mattresses did not succeed in dragging Russia into the war with the kurain, and evaluating the great Debaltsev and Ilovaisk "victories", they realized that this option was unpromising and Gunpowder was a loser, and therefore they put on Erdogan, because the economy is stronger, the army is stronger, well, belonging to NATO, gives a reason to throw into the meat grinder euronochnikov-burn everything with fire. So the comrade is right - "The surest way is to shoot the jackal."
        In the case of "shooting the main figure", mattresses will have a break in the template, since the war will again go on vacation
    4. 222222
      222222 2 February 2016 10: 19
      13
      Erdogan. Is it possible to "calculate" a cat imagining itself as a lion? ""
      CAN!!!
      More VALERIANS ... spill ... and .. help SYRIA ..
    5. siberalt
      siberalt 2 February 2016 10: 26
      +2
      The collapse of Turkey begins. The Russian side insists on the participation of the Kurds in the inter-Syrian negotiations on the future structure of the state. Against Turkey and England. The USA supported Russia. It seems that the Kurds of Afghanistan, Iraq, Turkey and Syria are not opposed either.
      1. aleks_29296
        aleks_29296 2 February 2016 11: 24
        +4
        The collapse of Turkey, the collapse of Ukraine, the collapse of the European Union .... something they are in no hurry to fall apart. Maybe stop vanging, maybe it's better to pay attention to your problems?
        1. domokl
          domokl 2 February 2016 13: 18
          +3
          And the article is not about our problems?
          1. aleks_29296
            aleks_29296 2 February 2016 15: 04
            +1
            Quote: domokl
            And the article is not about our problems?


            I didn’t particularly notice our problems in it, more Turkish analysis. A comment does not refer to the article, but to the previous comments. We have divorced the prophets too much, all the collapses predict, but only something does not grow together.
      2. Dam
        Dam 2 February 2016 21: 57
        0
        Do not consider me as an all-tramp, but from a military point of view, the situation is so-so. If Erdogan decides to attack in Latakia, Assad’s army will not be able to show serious resistance in the oncoming offensive, since it is pretty battered and lacks in people, equipment and ammunition. In addition, at first, Turkey will own the initiative. In addition, the closure of straits will complicate the Syrian express. As for the videoconferencing, it will not be possible to simply bomb the Turks developing the offensive. It all depends on the concentration of forces at the point of impact. If Erdogan goes to the exchange and throws a significant number of planes to suppress our air defense, he will lose a lot, but the air group will be destroyed. (There are only one 400 and one 300 sea-based and several armor. They put a lot, but they won’t be able to survive.) I say about a massive 50-100 raid cars. In addition, aerial combat will tie the hands of attack aircraft and bombers and will not be able to support the SAA on the ground. Syria will not succeed in localizing the war with the Turks, it will be necessary to attack airfields, infrastructure and command centers in Turkey. And conventional weapons, I'm afraid it will not be enough. So, at least, tactical nuclear weapons. Here is such a prospect. One hundred percent, it would be better not attacked.
        1. rubidiy
          rubidiy 3 February 2016 00: 25
          0
          Quote: Damm
          there are only one 400 and one 300 sea-based and several shells. They put a lot, but they can’t survive.

          not one, but two S-400s. There were S-300s before that. And the Varyag has 64 more S-300s. There are also Krasukha-4 electronic warfare systems that disable aircraft and missiles within a radius of 25 km. Those. everything that will fly aimingly at our base will stupidly fall.
          I can not say anything about the combat capabilities of the Turkish F16 in comparison with the SU30SM and SU35. All possess radar with AFAR and approximately identical explosive missiles. Real performance characteristics and application tactics are known only to professionals.
          It should be understood that in the event of an attack on a base in Latakia, Russia does not have to use nuclear weapons. There are tactical missiles on any media. Their massive use on Turkish military bases will quickly dot the i. After that, troops can be sent to Turkey.
          1. Dam
            Dam 3 February 2016 16: 12
            +1
            Volley s-400-4 missiles, then reload. Total total volley power we have 12 goals. Then reloading. (Standard from a road train 5 minutes, a package from the ground 40 minutes). I am silent about the fact that for one target such as a fighter, a guaranteed defeat is 2 missiles. And once again, the goal of the Turkish Air Force is to simply block the work of attack aircraft and bombers and cover ground forces. The capabilities of tactical missiles to disable military infrastructure facilities are greatly exaggerated. The second question, from where we will attack, is only through the Black Sea and or from Armenia, which greatly facilitates the work of their air defense. The essence of my post, there is no doubt of victory, there is confidence in the impossibility of localizing the conflict by Syria. And I’m talking about the difficulties of supplying a remote group of the RF Armed Forces, which will impose additional. difficulties for a probable conflict
            1. Pomeranian
              Pomeranian 5 February 2016 10: 11
              0
              Quote: Damm
              And I’m talking about the difficulties of supplying a remote group of the RF Armed Forces, which will impose additional. difficulties for a probable conflict

              And through Iran and Iraq?
        2. Weyland
          Weyland 3 February 2016 02: 13
          0
          Quote: Damm
          So, at least, tactical nuclear weapons.


          Would purcua not be pa?
        3. The comment was deleted.
    6. aleks 62 next
      aleks 62 next 2 February 2016 12: 46
      +6
      ..... Turkey is no longer a cat ...

      .... Somehow it’s insulting for the paws ..... Roman didn’t choose the right comparison .... The cat is by nature a small predator, leading because of its smallness, a secretive and preferably inconspicuous lifestyle, which is also not aggressive .. ..Here the jackal is more correct (remember the cartoon about Mowgli) ... laughing
  2. Lyton
    Lyton 2 February 2016 06: 48
    +9
    Whatever tasks Perdogan sets for himself, Putin is famous for non-standard moves and I think that everything has already been calculated.
  3. venaya
    venaya 2 February 2016 06: 48
    10
    It is impossible to predict 100% further course of events. "Cat" in the corner. Nobody knows what he will choose. Even the cat itself

    100% to predict and there is no need, the Turks entered the orange level for their Air Force, ours sent the SU-35, a decent answer. That I hope we still have the opportunity to counter the inadequate actions of Erdogan, and we will stand on that.
  4. The black
    The black 2 February 2016 06: 51
    12
    A cat? Yes, Erdlgan is a donkey from the American zoo. Sometimes this donkey can be stubborn. But in the event of an attack, not an attack on Syria, he can be calculated. Erdogan will never dare to take such a serious step, without the support of the United States. Who needs to be counted. " After all, the states are also well aware that Turkey is the only one in this region that has a land army capable of turning the current course of events in Syria, and this fact cannot be discounted ...
    1. domokl
      domokl 2 February 2016 06: 55
      +1
      Quote: Black
      Turkey is the only one in this region that possesses a land army capable of turning the tide of events in Syria, and this fact cannot be discounted ......

      Here I disagree ... The Syrian army is much stronger today. and in combat experience, and in spirit, and in equipment. And Russia is hardly possible to "bend" even the Americans. Erdogan has done too much
      1. The black
        The black 2 February 2016 06: 59
        11
        No, Sasha. With all due respect to the Syrian army, the Turks are both more and much more modern. Those latest artillery systems, tanks that we provided to the Smryans are still a drop in the bucket. For such a short period of time, they would, if they wanted to, be unable to rearm them.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 2 February 2016 07: 15
          12
          Quote: Black
          No, Sasha. With all due respect to the Syrian army, the Turks are more and much more modern

          The open entrance to the Turkish warrior will catch us, but ours are enough there. Because there is one Turkish bomb on our own and a warrior.
          1. Al_oriso
            Al_oriso 2 February 2016 08: 00
            0
            Without NATO support, Erdogan will not start a war. He can snarl bombings and single acts, no more. If a decent response follows from Russia, then all the more so no one will intercede for Turkey. Erdogan immediately merge.
            1. aleks 62 next
              aleks 62 next 2 February 2016 12: 52
              +6
              ..... If a decent response follows from Russia, then moreover no one will intercede for Turkey. ...

              .... Our Israeli colleagues also spoke about this when the SU-24 was shot down .. But there wasn’t an answer in general - tomatoes and peaches are good, but ..... In the East, they respect the strong ..... We are waiting for the second time ???? .... request
              1. guzik007
                guzik007 2 February 2016 16: 20
                0
                .Our Israeli colleagues also spoke about this when the SU-24 was shot down.
                -------------------------------------------------- ----------------
                Yes, yes, your Israeli colleagues are still the heat master to rake the wrong hands.
          2. Ami du peuple
            Ami du peuple 2 February 2016 08: 43
            +3
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            The open entrance to the Turkish warrior will catch us, but ours are enough there. Because there is one Turkish bomb on our own and a warrior.

            1. Mikhail Krapivin
              Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 15: 48
              +2
              Dorenko is handsome :) "Good evening. And enough of the good!"
              1. guzik007
                guzik007 2 February 2016 16: 31
                -1
                Dorenko is handsome :) "Good evening. And enough of the good!"
                -------------------------------------------------- ----
                Yeah, handsome. At one time he made a big mistake with Luzhka, fell into disgrace and has been trying for many years to get out on top on a patriotic note. But ... Here, judging by the hare, he drinks excessively. But there was such a snobber glazed!
                But the Nightingale is a handsome man, who really achieved everything, licking for many years! But I remember him from the "silver rain" - every day he began the morning with his transfer. How he burned the power, with what ecstasy poured bile over it. recognize a patriotic man! Ekalemane!
                And Dorik was unlucky, well, it happens, this is life. Well, go ahead. Chot I do not believe in his sincerity.
                1. Victor Demchenko
                  Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 09
                  +1
                  I didn’t even look. I do not like shifters. angry I also rarely watch Solovyov, simply because I remember his pearls on Silver Rain. and even now, having watched his pair of programs, when he personally directs the course of the transmission to uncontrollable bedlams and continuous ... fool you know, but the constant invitations of these "figures" from the Square ... well, somehow it is not comme il faut. request
      2. atalef
        atalef 2 February 2016 08: 11
        -1
        Quote: domokl
        Here I do not agree ... The Syrian army today is stronger at times

        Alexander . I do not agree absolutely.
        The Turkish Army is the strongest in the region.

        Quote: domokl
        in combat experience, and in spirit, and in equipment

        Well, it’s a word, they cannot defeat the Papuans for 5 years on their own
        1. Stas157
          Stas157 2 February 2016 08: 59
          10
          But can the USA defeat popoes in Afghanistan? And in Vietnam, how the popuars piled up exceptional!
          1. guzik007
            guzik007 2 February 2016 16: 33
            0
            And the USA in Afghanistan can defeat poits
            ----------------------------------------------
            Why so derogatory about the Afghans. Nobody could conquer them in history.
            Maybe you mean poPuasov? So they shed a lot of European blood.
            1. The comment was deleted.
            2. Weyland
              Weyland 3 February 2016 02: 52
              0
              Quote: guzik007
              Why so derogatory about the Afghans. Nobody could conquer them in history.


              Legends and myths ... Who just did not conquer them! Medes, Macedonians, Parthians, Kushans, Sassanids, Arabs, Samanids, Ghaznavids, Gurids, Khorezmshahs, Mongols, Timurids, Safavids, arrogant Saxons ...
        2. 72jora72
          72jora72 2 February 2016 09: 05
          +6
          Well, it’s a word, they cannot defeat the Papuans for 5 years on their own
          These, as you put it, "Papuans" are kept, trained, armed by the rulers and organizations of a dozen countries (including your dear Israel). In terms of the number of art, armored vehicles, and vehicles, Daesh was far superior to the Syrian army (thanks to the insane amount of equipment and weapons that your beloved States left the Iraqi army, and which the terrorists calmly took away from them in their favor).
          P.C. And I perfectly understand that with your comment you just threw a portion of shit on the fan ......
        3. Ramzaj99
          Ramzaj99 2 February 2016 10: 45
          +7
          Quote: atalef
          Well, it’s a word, they cannot defeat the Papuans for 5 years on their own

          I would see how you would defeat the PAPUAS, whom a large half of the world and the most powerful army in the world train, equip, finance and reinforcements from all over the region gather daily.
          1. atalef
            atalef 2 February 2016 11: 09
            -3
            Quote: Ramzaj99
            Quote: atalef
            Well, it’s a word, they cannot defeat the Papuans for 5 years on their own

            I would see how you would defeat the PAPUAS, whom a large half of the world and the most powerful army in the world train, equip, finance and reinforcements from all over the region gather daily.

            Well, actually it was.
            Arabs had half the world armed and trained them the USSR and supplied weapons, financed and even fought for them - you know the result.
            1. Mikhail Krapivin
              Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 15: 55
              +5
              Quote: atalef

              Arabs had half the world armed and trained them the USSR and supplied weapons, financed and even fought for them - you know the result.


              Which once again confirms that the Arabs are weak warriors, and no Soviet Union could help them, and Israel had an excellent motivator - the survival of the country itself, plus America behind. Colleagues are trying to explain to you that Assad is not at war with the barmels, but in fact with all the neighbors who support the barmels, including Israel and the United States, and excluding Iran. Although you yourself are in the know.
            2. Ramzaj99
              Ramzaj99 2 February 2016 21: 12
              +1
              Quote: atalef
              armed and trained them the USSR and supplied weapons, financed and even fought for them - you know the result.

              If there was a goal that now stands in Syria to demolish the government and destroy the state, BELIEVE we would not speak now. You generally decided not to compare the USSR and Israel))))) You don’t have to go crazy)))))
          2. The comment was deleted.
        4. aleks_29296
          aleks_29296 2 February 2016 11: 27
          +1
          Quote: atalef
          Well, it’s a word, they cannot defeat the Papuans for 5 years on their own


          "Popuas" are not very simple, + their support is clearly not "popuass"
        5. aleks 62 next
          aleks 62 next 2 February 2016 12: 54
          +1
          ..... they Papuans cannot defeat the 5th year on their own ...

          .... Duc of the Papuans is very much .... And as in a fable - with a crowd of hares you can beat a lion ... laughing ..... Only to beat, and to win is unlikely ... lol
    2. su163
      su163 2 February 2016 20: 59
      0
      He is said to be terminally ill. He has nothing to lose. Will start a war, and whoever finishes it no longer cares
      1. kam4atka
        kam4atka 3 February 2016 03: 28
        +1
        if so, then PPC.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  5. Karayakupovo
    Karayakupovo 2 February 2016 06: 58
    +1
    Actually, Erdogan is a cornered pig (not a cat). And not with dogs, but with a bear.
  6. inkass_98
    inkass_98 2 February 2016 07: 00
    +2
    There have been no wars with the Turks for a hundred years, somehow I don't really want to get into a new one. Although it is necessary to punish for impudence, there are no questions. So far, the tactics have been chosen correctly, and Erdogan makes himself a fool when he runs after Putin through the corridors. The main thing is not to get carried away with the "humiliation of insects", otherwise the Ottoman's carving can be ripped off, since his thinking abilities are not the most outstanding, they will go into the garbage.
    1. domokl
      domokl 2 February 2016 07: 21
      +2
      laughing
      Quote: inkass_98
      There have been no wars with the Turks for a hundred years

      There is a question of suspicion and superstition. The figure of these wars is not very ... 13 is still a damn dozen ... But seriously, then there are no options. Or we compromise with Erdogan and forget the dead pilot. Or the conversation will be from a position of strength
  7. Lebedev Sergey
    Lebedev Sergey 2 February 2016 07: 01
    +5
    The cries of "Erdogan must leave", to put it mildly, have died down to the level of a whisper.


    Is this possibly about Asad?
  8. alex-cn
    alex-cn 2 February 2016 07: 03
    +3
    Maybe Erdogan was cornered like a cat, but there is still a black owner with a club in his hands, whose help he can still hope for. No matter what they say, about the impossibility of war, but the Americans recognized the "violation of the borders by the Russian plane" without explanation. Not so simple...
  9. Delink
    Delink 2 February 2016 07: 04
    0
    A good idea for a quick strike when the Turks are deploying the "Turkomans refugee camp".
    But Turkey is not worth dropping off the shields. If they want to establish a camp, then all planes will be raised in the sky.
  10. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 2 February 2016 07: 07
    +1
    Turks are firing at Syria in northern Latakia. The suicide cat rushed to the attack.
    1. aksakal
      aksakal 2 February 2016 18: 10
      0
      Quote: Mikhail M
      Turks are firing at Syria in northern Latakia. The suicide cat rushed to the attack.
      - already outdated ... Already the next stage - http://riafan.ru/499940-tureckaya-armiya-zahvatila-territorii-na-severo-vostoke-
      sirii - the seizure of Syrian territories. The answer is for the Syrians and the Russians ... Wanguyu will be swallowed, and a little more territory will be swallowed. But somewhere around 1000 sq.m. - a critical point beyond which the war between Syria and Turkey. And up to this critical point, everything captured turns into the Golan, only in the Turkish version and only in the north. Complaints to the UN, the status of disputed territories ... Poor Syria. It’s bad to be weak - they bite off insolently from the north, then from the south ... And there will be no rest in Syria - it will be a zone from which the Syrians will be constantly terrorized. In the place of Assad, I would nevertheless decide on an ultimatum to Turkey within 72 hours to leave the territory into which they invaded. Why should Assad be afraid? The Turks are hardly better at war than the same Dzhebhatannus members, only better equipped, and Russia will help with equipment in the light of new circumstances. It is no longer the T-90 "modernization of the early 90s with a cast turret", but the normal T-90s. Because if you close your eyes to this seizure of territories, then it nullifies all the latest achievements of the Syrian army ...
      1. kam4atka
        kam4atka 3 February 2016 03: 32
        0
        until they agree to a pipe from Qatar, they will not leave Syria.
      2. The comment was deleted.
  11. parusnik
    parusnik 2 February 2016 07: 14
    +1
    Erdogan, tried to ride several horses at the same time, not considering the fact that the seat can crack .. In the herd, although the horses are different .. but they can trample ...
  12. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 2 February 2016 07: 24
    0
    Some experts in this region say that they do not exclude the entry of Turkish troops into Syria. Thus, Erdogan, having established himself there, is already cutting off a piece of Syria. By his actions, he really drove himself into a corner, but still counts on the strong support of the United States and Turkey’s membership in NATO. Not without reason, recently this abbreviation began to sound more often in his statements. And, like being cornered can do a lot of stupid things.
  13. maxbrov74
    maxbrov74 2 February 2016 07: 29
    +2
    "Cat" in the corner. Nobody knows what he will choose.

    I can suggest a good choice for this "cat", which would suit many. Two bricks, a bag and a whirlpool.
  14. Mera joota
    Mera joota 2 February 2016 07: 40
    -3
    Moreover, Assad’s authority is growing in the Arab world.

    Author, what do you mean by the Arab world? In which countries from the Arab world did Assad's authority grow? Or is Russia the Arab world?
  15. hotrod
    hotrod 2 February 2016 07: 43
    +3
    Great article. Excellent consideration of the issue from the point of view of the Turks. Because when you consider your own position, it does not seem so strong.
  16. Mera joota
    Mera joota 2 February 2016 07: 43
    -5
    Long-term mockery of the Iranian people and the state ends. It ends because Iran has learned to live in a blockade.

    Duc did not like Iran to live in a blockade, and therefore backtracked. So Iran made concessions in order to lift sanctions.
  17. Taygerus
    Taygerus 2 February 2016 07: 43
    -1
    At this pace, Perdogan could become another lover of chewing ties laughing
  18. Dr. Barmaley
    Dr. Barmaley 2 February 2016 07: 45
    +6
    Americans and Europeans increasingly accuse Erdogan of supporting militants
    1. thinker
      thinker 2 February 2016 17: 09
      +2
      There is such an option.
  19. Mera joota
    Mera joota 2 February 2016 08: 04
    +2
    Erdogan now resembles a cat that the dogs have cornered. No exit.

    The thesis "Erdogan is cornered" runs as a red line through the entire article, while it is absolutely not clear WHO drove Erdogan into a hypothetical corner? Or did the author decide something for himself and broadcasts it to the public ready to accept it only because of his hatred of Erdogan?
  20. minirulet
    minirulet 2 February 2016 08: 10
    +4
    Quote: Mera Joota
    Erdogan now resembles a cat that the dogs have cornered. No exit.

    The thesis "Erdogan is cornered" runs as a red line through the entire article, while it is absolutely not clear WHO drove Erdogan into a hypothetical corner? Or did the author decide something for himself and broadcasts it to the public ready to accept it only because of his hatred of Erdogan?

    I agree. A lot of screaming facts are few. The article is more like frantic propaganda, a la the first channel. No matter how bad I feel about Erdogan, you should not stoop to the level of delirium from the Ukrainian media, for example. Now in the Middle East there is a big game, the details of which are known only to a small circle of people. Everything else is just our guesses and conjectures.
    1. Mera joota
      Mera joota 2 February 2016 08: 58
      -4
      Quote: minirulet
      The article is more like frantic propaganda, a la the first channel.

      So this is agitprop, by the way it’s quite solid, patients with PGM will drag it to quotes and will make references to it.
  21. engineer74
    engineer74 2 February 2016 08: 12
    +1
    Some kind of one-sided analysis - an attempt to calculate Erdogan "in a vacuum"! But there is also the second side of the conflict, which no one has yet "calculated" ...
    After Geneva, Assad’s separate negotiations with the Kurds will look very logical, and who will give guarantees that the piece of Syria that Erdogan will smash into will not fall into the Kurdish People's Republic Wide Autonomy, and even with the adjacent Turkish territories? And the Kurds will receive everything they need to protect their "territorial integrity", no doubt!
    IMHO
  22. complete zero
    complete zero 2 February 2016 08: 13
    0
    yes what cat is he ... but RAT
  23. Mercenary
    Mercenary 2 February 2016 08: 16
    +1
    "Americans and Europeans are increasingly accusing Erdogan of supporting the militants"
    They accuse so loudly that they only heard Greece and Israel ... and American macaques, under the leadership of the main Monkey, still refer to secret (well, very secret) data about the anger of the Russian aggressors and the erdogank’s furry!
    1. domokl
      domokl 2 February 2016 08: 31
      +1
      Not really yours ... Greece and Israel really quarreled with the Turks. But we are already talking about the leading EU countries. Such as Germany and France. Such conversations are already underway. Everything is true here.
      I agree only that these countries, through their leaders, have not expressed condemnation ...
      1. Victor Demchenko
        Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 27
        0
        Quote: domokl
        I agree only that these countries, through their leaders, have not expressed condemnation ...

        and do not express. never!
        Roman, I personally agree with the opinion of many members of the forum about the one-sidedness of the article, and they correctly write that the states support the Turks with might and main, see at least the latest statements by the State Department and the Pentagon regarding the violation of the border by our plane. like "we have proof, but we won't show you!" this is of course baby talk, but! well and further ... we will see how V.V. said. Zhirinovsky: by the way: the further the more I become convinced of the real sagacity of Vladimir Volfovich. his speech in the Duma in 1999 is something. good thanks for the repost.
  24. Jan2016
    Jan2016 2 February 2016 08: 25
    +1
    Erdogan the cat cornered? Arguably. Rather, Jackal Tabaki who serves the evil tiger Sher Khan. And they surround just Russia. Creating a belt of enemy countries or in extreme cases, not stable type of Afghanistan and Ukraine. And while Russia in the person of its leadership manages to brush it off. How the situation will develop further is the question.
  25. cap
    cap 2 February 2016 08: 30
    0
    "Erdogan now resembles a cat that the dogs have driven into a corner. There is no way out. And the main thought in the cat's head is no longer about freedom. There is the thought of how to live on. Attack the evil dogs and die heroically from the fangs? defeat and hope for the mercy of the victors? Then at least a ghostly hope remains. "
    Well, a very similar situation, even nothing to add laughing
    1. antiexpert
      antiexpert 2 February 2016 09: 25
      +1
      Quote: cap
      Erdogan now resembles a cat

      a mistake - a cat never provokes dogs and does not attack first, therefore, Erdogan is more like a pit bull, which, like Hitler, is chased along a wire corridor to an arena, where he will be faced with a deadly rival, in order to destroy a dog after a short fight, and then share it with the organizers of the show the skin - everything is exactly like with Hitler)))
    2. opus
      opus 3 February 2016 00: 53
      +1
      Quote: cap
      Well, a very similar situation, even nothing to add

      Usually cats give dogs a shit

  26. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 2 February 2016 08: 39
    +5
    For all that, tourists from Russia continue to travel to Turkey. Through the Belarusian channel. We are still brave people, we are not afraid of anything. The liner in Egypt fell, the German tourists were blown up - at least henna for us. Probably something else should happen, so that the fans of a cheap booze and buffet get it.
    I even know what. It is necessary to capture a bus with thrill-seekers, kill half, then Erdogan will personally enter into negotiations with the terrorists, heroically freeing the rest. Something like this.
    1. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 2 February 2016 09: 20
      +3
      The historical replica of S. Lavrov very accurately reflects the level of these tourist tourists.
    2. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 3 February 2016 04: 04
      -2
      Quote: Cap.Morgan
      I even know what. Gotta grab a bus with thrill lovers, kill half

      What do you propose to do with your compatriots?
      And who are you after that?
      and after all, idiots give you the pluses * are the same
      1. The comment was deleted.
    3. Victor Demchenko
      Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 35
      0
      You know, Sasha, on many points we have disagreements, but in many ways we are similar! let's be friends? but in essence of your last post - 100% agree! Yesterday, a neighbor came from Antalya, shouting in a coffin, I saw all the politics, I went, and I’ll drive current to the Turks! and people like him are really quite a few. well ... wait. don't wait long.
  27. repus
    repus 2 February 2016 08: 40
    0
    Quote: atalef
    Quote: aszzz888
    Turkey is no longer a cat cornered, it is already a gluttonous jackal. The surest way out is to shoot the jackal.

    Erdogan probably imagines himself * Cupid *. but in reality he was and will remain * Timur *

    An interesting analogy is obtained with animals. "Cupid" -Putin, "Timur" - Erdogan, since Timurchik butted Cupid, squeezed it out of the bench, okay, friends crushed it, the second time Timurchik became insolent and began to stomp his hooves, butt again, to drive away from the place and .... Cupid was so spanked that they had to sit down and heal the poor fellow. Cupid also took pity on the goat, just chatted it in the air and let it go, but he could have clenched his teeth harder.
    Why am I ... If Putin grit his teeth harder, then what will remain of Erdogan, huh? In the meantime, only it flutters in the air.
  28. The comment was deleted.
  29. Seraphimamur
    Seraphimamur 2 February 2016 08: 45
    -1
    If Assad agrees to the statehood of the Kurds, then the Kurds for the sake of freedom will once again tear Erdogan and the Turks if they are against it.
    1. atalef
      atalef 2 February 2016 11: 12
      +2
      Quote: Seraphimamur
      If Assad agrees to the statehood of the Kurds, then the Kurds for the sake of freedom will once again tear Erdogan and the Turks if they are against it.

      Assad does not play any role in this. mk that would recognize, it is necessary at least to control this territory, but this is not.

      The Kurds themselves could have declared this, they only understand. in an hour the Turkish army will enter there.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  30. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 2 February 2016 08: 48
    +2
    Fortunately, the states slipped the Turks into us as enemies. They rub their hands. And there the Balts, but svidomye with the Poles squealing with joy, are stuffing themselves into their allies. These are enemies for a long time. Live with these and build a long-term strategy. There will be no quick results. The only chance is if the more "authoritative" European countries pull them back or economic interests prevail.
    1. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 16: 00
      0
      And Russia has always had one strategy. It is called: "the whole world is against us, but we do not give up."
  31. minirulet
    minirulet 2 February 2016 08: 53
    +3
    Quote: MOISEY
    Quote: aszzz888
    Turkey is no longer a cat cornered, it is already a gluttonous jackal. The surest way out is to shoot the jackal.

    Well, how did you get it, homegrown warriors. Well, you thought what would happen after Erdogan was "shot". Turkey is a very complicated and radically nationalized country. Yes, it will simply be torn apart by internal contradictions, and the result will be a second Ukraine. BUT Turkey is a NATO member. In the first week, the US interventionist military forces will be deployed. Do you have any idea what an American naval base is permanently deployed in the Black Sea? This is towards the north. Further, on the west - Who am I asking you will control the Bosphorus? - again, the United States. In the east, a carnage will immediately begin in the direction of Armenia, because Turkish nationalists will no longer be bound by anything - and there are Russian military bases there. Well this is ALL TYNDETS - a hot war between the Russian Federation and the USA by the hands of the Turks. Further, Assad is also not a bastard, and most likely, in order to protect himself, he will conduct an operation to annex northern Turkey, and Iran will certainly help him in this, for all the problems brought by the Turks. Again, CYPRUS - it is half captured by Turkey about what will begin there after the disappearance of the upper protectorate, there is no need to say - the night of long knives will seem like a children's holiday compared to this massacre.
    So - ONLY POLITICAL SETTLEMENT. Well, by the way - Not a single revolution in the world has brought PEACE, but only pain, blood and death, and then the revolution, as a rule, devours those who carried it ...

    There are such courageous patriots, military theorists a dime a dozen. Belligerent speeches are being pushed, and give weapons to the hands and to the front line, so they immediately fit. I agree. Conflicts must be resolved peacefully. But if the other side is belligerent, then you can show a grin.
    1. domokl
      domokl 2 February 2016 09: 09
      +5
      laughing You’ve made a small mistake with the site ... Here, just the majority are aware of how shells whistle overhead ... Therefore, the discussion is so lively .. everyone has their own experience
      1. atalef
        atalef 2 February 2016 11: 14
        -3
        Quote: domokl
        laughing You’ve made a small mistake with the site ... Here, just the majority are aware of how shells whistle overhead ... Therefore, the discussion is so lively .. everyone has their own experience
        Hey . Alexander.
        Another couch strategist showed up, a couple of times a hail from him in the 30-50 meters would crash, the ardor would decrease.
        1. kam4atka
          kam4atka 3 February 2016 03: 44
          +1
          You see, you know how the shell of a hail explodes and I guess you felt a flurry of fragments, a shock wave, a sound? share your experience)
        2. Victor Demchenko
          Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 43
          0
          me and the guys in the 70m and it was covered with hail. nothing, glory to God is alive. I just don’t understand, and why are we afraid of war? thank God, while we are not touching anyone, but here for our downed plane, honestly, we would have landed all the Turkish aviation that ours had done. Thanks guys! good
      2. The comment was deleted.
  32. misterwulf
    misterwulf 2 February 2016 08: 55
    0
    I would not invent anything, but would come up with something that is in Istanbul, in Iznik (Nicaea), in Izmit (Nicomedia), etc. organize virtual anti-Christian persecutions with an appeal to the "world community" for help and genocide. Without waiting for the UN Security Council session, we are here! From Sevastopol to Istanbul there is a very fast and short way.
    1. atalef
      atalef 2 February 2016 11: 16
      +2
      Quote: misterwulf
      I would not invent anything, but would come up with something that is in Istanbul, in Iznik (Nicaea), in Izmit (Nicomedia), etc. organize virtual anti-Christian persecutions with an appeal to the "world community" for help and genocide


      a typical proposal of a resident of Ukraine, to organize something virtual, to scream for the whole world and that everyone would come running to save him.
      Moreover, he himself (this resident) prefers to sit out in the country of savior.
      Quote: misterwulf
      Without waiting for the UN Security Council session, we are here! From Sevastopol to Istanbul is a very fast and short way.

      And before Novorosia, they came closer. Maybe you’ll start from New Russia. wink
    2. atalef
      atalef 2 February 2016 11: 16
      0
      Quote: misterwulf
      I would not invent anything, but would come up with something that is in Istanbul, in Iznik (Nicaea), in Izmit (Nicomedia), etc. organize virtual anti-Christian persecutions with an appeal to the "world community" for help and genocide


      a typical proposal of a resident of Ukraine, to organize something virtual, to scream for the whole world and that everyone would come running to save him.
      Moreover, he himself (this resident) prefers to sit out in the country of savior.
      Quote: misterwulf
      Without waiting for the UN Security Council session, we are here! From Sevastopol to Istanbul is a very fast and short way.

      And before Novorosia, they came closer. Maybe you’ll start from New Russia. wink
  33. Curious
    Curious 2 February 2016 09: 10
    +6
    Whatever you call Erdogan, a donkey, a goat, a cat, etc., it is very dangerous to underestimate the enemy. Especially such as Erdogan. Any beast cornered is dangerous.
    1. domokl
      domokl 2 February 2016 09: 14
      +2
      soldier and you can’t argue .. A wounded beast is more dangerous than a healthy one. A cornered man is doubly more dangerous ....
  34. Enjoy
    Enjoy 2 February 2016 09: 10
    +1
    Quote: atalef
    Erdogan probably imagines himself * Cupid *. but in reality he was and will remain * Timur *

    I'm afraid that he will become a goat "Merkel", which Timurchik wants to marry))
  35. Lelek
    Lelek 2 February 2016 09: 31
    0
    (Erdogan now resembles a cat that the dogs have driven into a corner. There is no way out. And the main idea in the cat’s head is no longer about freedom. There is an idea about how to live on.)

    This is true. Erdogan drove Turkey into an awkward position, not only politically but also economically (and this is perhaps more important). He is now frantically looking for a way out of the current situation, and he is only one uncontested - to ask for forgiveness from Russia for what he did and compensate for the harm done. Our sworn "partner" of the United States is pushing Recep into military provocations against Russia in every possible way, but this is suicide for him and he can do this if his tower is finally demolished. The voice of reason is apparently silent here.
    (cry.)
  36. afrikanez
    afrikanez 2 February 2016 09: 31
    +2
    In any case, Turkey, without the support of NATO, cannot do anything. It can of course only spoil Syria, and Russia, and Iraq. After all, I so want to return the former empire.
  37. sgg
    sgg 2 February 2016 09: 53
    0
    I think a war with Turkey is inevitable. And the one who starts first will have better chances for less losses in this war. We have a good reason to start it - the Turks are already shelling the territory of Syria. It is necessary to close the notorious corridor 98 km wide with one throw. And if at the same time some Turkish military facilities have to be battered, everything, including NATO. it is swallowed.
    1. minirulet
      minirulet 2 February 2016 10: 04
      +2
      I have not heard such nonsense. Do you have any idea what will happen if we attack a NATO member country? Has it completely collapsed from oak?
      1. sgg
        sgg 2 February 2016 14: 12
        0
        Why is there such a trembling in the knees?
    2. Pomeranian
      Pomeranian 2 February 2016 10: 55
      +2
      Quote: sgg
      I think a war with Turkey is inevitable.

      Mid February - early March. I’ll work with a local Wang)))
      1. sgg
        sgg 2 February 2016 14: 17
        +2
        We can agree with this.
      2. Victor Demchenko
        Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 47
        0
        sad .... fool
        what do you want? to hunt? I personally had enough in the 70s ...
  38. Pomeranian
    Pomeranian 2 February 2016 10: 54
    0
    Interesting stuff. I'll throw in my three kopecks. Erdogan enjoys support among the Turkish population itself, which cannot be said about national minorities and the growing number of crypto-Christians. It is not known how they will behave in the event of a serious conflict between Russia and Turkey, but clearly they will not die for "Turkey, one and indivisible from May to May." But I see another variant of development: a provocation on the border with Syria and the introduction of regular troops into the territory of compact residence of Turkomans, which, in fact, Erdogan has always longed for. And here there is a chance to thoroughly carve Comrade. Erdogan. If the Russian Air Force starts mixing up its troops in Syria with soil, NATO most likely will not get involved.
    1. minirulet
      minirulet 2 February 2016 11: 21
      +1
      This is not for you in the 1930s, when Hitler annexed neighboring states and everyone was silent and not even the situation with the Crimea, because everything was so intelligently turned up there that you won’t dig. NATO will not be silent. Do you want to become at least a rogue state? Or haven’t fought for a long time, itchy hands? Putin is not a fool, he will not do that.
      1. Pomeranian
        Pomeranian 2 February 2016 11: 26
        +1
        Quote: minirulet
        NATO will not be silent.

        If Turkish troops fall under bombs in Syria, they will remain silent. It is necessary to negotiate, who argues. True, this requires the mutual desire of both contracting parties. Putin is not stupid, yes, but I believe that if another plane crashes, the Turks will definitely not get off with tomatoes.
        1. minirulet
          minirulet 2 February 2016 11: 36
          +2
          I agree about the plane, if another one falls, they will drop three at once) C400 do not sleep)
          1. Mikhail Krapivin
            Mikhail Krapivin 2 February 2016 16: 05
            +2
            S-400 is not a panacea. And then, in order for the S-400 to take off, a will is needed. Either GDP, or a performer of a lower rank, for example, Shoigu, whom, if something can be blamed, he didn’t understand, he overdid it a bit, got carried away, the young one is better - but we will punish him, we’ll deprive him of the quarterly prize! Or announce an orange alarm among our air defense in Syria, so that the decision to launch the rocket is made by the calculation commander ...
            1. Pomeranian
              Pomeranian 2 February 2016 23: 16
              0
              Quote: Mikhail Krapivin
              Or announce an orange alarm among our air defense in Syria, so that the decision to launch the rocket is made by the calculation commander ...

              Michael, I have a suspicion that all the necessary instructions have been received. But! The base in Latakia is not as vulnerable as the forces of the fleet off the coast. There, they report that the Turks are already firing shells on Syrian territory.
            2. Victor Demchenko
              Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 51
              +1
              Quote: Mikhail Krapivin
              Or announce an orange alarm among our air defense in Syria, so that the decision to launch the rocket is made by the calculation commander ...

              Well, then it’s better to just send the signal "Rocket" and ... that's it. no options, when targeting and without a proper response to the request "friend or foe" - an unambiguous launch for destruction. so that...
  39. Tektor
    Tektor 2 February 2016 12: 11
    +1
    Any formation on its territory can destroy Assad by its order with the justification of such a step as a terrorist threat, since it is impossible to unambiguously determine the essence of immigrants.
  40. Earnest
    Earnest 2 February 2016 13: 04
    +2
    Quote: sgg
    I think a war with Turkey is inevitable. And the one who starts first will have better chances for less losses in this war. We have a good reason to start it - the Turks are already shelling the territory of Syria. It is necessary to shut up the notorious corridor 98 km wide with one throw. And if at the same time some Turkish military facilities have to be battered, everything, including NATO. it is swallowed.

    Quote: minirulet
    I have not heard such nonsense. Do you have any idea what will happen if we attack a NATO member country? Has it completely collapsed from oak?

    Yes, even without NATO. What kind of paralysis of the brain occurs, why those who have not seen the war in their eyes so easily argue about the need to start it ?? Dear sgg, have you ever pissed into your pants because it was scary to move, because HE LOOKS AT THE FENCE YOU LIE IN THE GRASS? Have you ever had to poke around in a corpse two weeks ago in search of a token and documents in the summer, and then freak out that it was not a federal, but a dead Czech? After that, I understand very well the words of my grandmothers, who repeated the saying every other day: "If only there was no war."
  41. Bashibuzuk
    Bashibuzuk 2 February 2016 13: 23
    +4
    Well, alignment as alignment, review as overview.
    It would be less than veterinary-homeless vocabulary and in general it would be normal - a cat, do not care ...
    And, carefully assessing the state of the world - it is clear that Russia is ALREADY exposed as an aggressor country.
    It is not known who attacked, it is not known why, for what ...
    It is not known what forces.
    And even, feigned admiration for our technology, in the same stream.
    Who! England, the United States are the world's leading pedrillers.
    And the tape about Putin's billions is also here, in the stream. And "misunderstanding" of Putin, also in the cashier.
    And Ankara’s demands for Russia are to clarify NATE, violation of the border.
    .
    Now, start Turkey to roll off the Syrian territories and the army (even ours, including) - the howl will be pounded that this is a provocation of Russia.
    And to us WE, Lavrov, Putin, the State Duma, SovFed, RushTudey - we will prove nothing to ANYONE.
    Because the inscription already shines - Mane, Tekel, Fares.
    Guilty appointed.
    What they have not yet begun is their problem.
    .
    Wait. Just wait, so that Turkey's FIRSTNESS is EVIDENTIAL to everyone. To everyone. Or at least the French and Germans.
    .
    I represent the efforts of intelligence and diplomats now.
    I represent the level of consultation.
    I imagine that the war with Turkey ... Russia now in a bad dream can dream, only the States will get buns.
    .
    God grant Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin patience, resourcefulness and perseverance. Compassion and prudence.
    ..
    But, in general, they don’t take others ... as KGB agents.
  42. andrey6060
    andrey6060 2 February 2016 14: 01
    0
    “Russia has only two allies: the army and the navy.”
    ―Alexander III
  43. Redfox3k
    Redfox3k 2 February 2016 14: 05
    +1
    Quote: minirulet
    This is not for you in the 1930s, when Hitler annexed neighboring states and everyone was silent and not even the situation with the Crimea, because everything was so intelligently turned up there that you won’t dig. NATO will not be silent. Do you want to become at least a rogue state? Or haven’t fought for a long time, itchy hands? Putin is not a fool, he will not do that.

    Do you think Putin will swallow another spit of Erdogan ?? In Russia they will not forgive him.
  44. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 2 February 2016 14: 31
    +1
    Entered into shit - puddles are not afraid, so is Erdogan. He has already been explained under what conditions negotiations are possible, and he again has his own.
  45. palm
    palm 2 February 2016 14: 32
    +1
    frivolous article. propaganda
  46. domokl
    domokl 2 February 2016 15: 22
    +2
    There are no others .. Or they agitate for ours, or not ours ... but the most cunning are against everyone ... But at the expense of seriousness ... There is nothing to say .. there are no arguments
    1. Victor Demchenko
      Victor Demchenko 3 February 2016 06: 55
      0
      Rum, chill out for God's sake! here they didn’t write that, (or did they write?) lol and then nishtyak! love
  47. complete zero
    complete zero 2 February 2016 16: 20
    0
    Quote: Riv
    Do not you think that the lumberjack in the picture of the khan? From the host with a hatchet do not shrug.

    yes, for sure ... I saw him (the owner) as if just once (twenty meters away) ran through the swamp that those Kenyan runners ... (he really pulled the same thing in the opposite direction))))