Military Review

Far Eastern Roulette

40
The day after the victory in the parliamentary and presidential elections, the elected President of Taiwan, Tsai Invan, announced that after taking office, one of her first steps would be to create a free trade zone with Japan. Such a move has not only political and cultural significance (in these two areas, the two states are already so closely integrated), but also purely military. Tokyo planned a large-scale rearmament program, which resulted in the formation of substantial surplus ships and armored vehicles that Taipei could acquire. Personal contacts also played a significant role, since Japan supported the victorious Democratic Progressive Party throughout its years in opposition.




The PRC responded to the past elections with a storm of indignation in the media and large-scale 31 military group exercises in the neighboring Taiwan province of Fujian and the waters adjacent to it. It should be recalled that part of this province is still retained by Taiwan: the large island of Kinmen and the Matsu Archipelago, which are located literally a few kilometers from the continent.

The economy is pushing both sides to confrontation. In Taiwan, the decline continues today. As for the PRC, here, according to financial analysts, in the next two years a complete collapse of the stock market is expected. Preparing for it, investors withdrew more than 2015 trillions of dollars from 1 from the People's Republic of China in the year of China. The collapse of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the rapid outflow of capital from the Middle Kingdom draw a line under the forty years of the "economic miracle." Then either stagnation or recession.

Along with the end of a long period of economic growth, the political era ends - the era of expansion, although it would be more correct to call it the era of simple territorial seizures. It began from the times of the Civil War and the accession of Tibet and continued further with the absorption of the Paracel Islands, Hong Kong, Macao, the Big Ussuri Island, the border regions of the Central Asian republics of the former USSR and other territories. The next was to be Taiwan, but did not. Now, together with the Taiwanese elections, a barrier has fallen before a further territorial expansion of the PRC. More precisely, the expansion itself, of course, is possible - by military means, which by no means guarantees victory, and at the price of the final collapse of the economy.

If the First World War turned out for Asia only a rapid redistribution of borders, then the Second World War went through it with a destructive hammer, demolishing cities, states and entire regions. Worse, its consequences left everyone dissatisfied, both the losers and the winners. The new format of the conflict, which in the West is called the hybrid war, is undoubtedly now being studied in the headquarters of all the powers of East Asia. Of course, it is applicable far from everywhere. In particular, a full-fledged conflict on the Korean Peninsula or the landing by Beijing of troops on Taiwan will most likely be manifestations of a traditional war. But in other episodes, the possibilities for intervention become much greater. For example, the direct participation of personnel officers in Taiwan in the national liberation movements in the southern provinces of the PRC. If, with the power of the Kuomintang, which spoke, with certain reservations, for a united China, this seemed impossible, then with the advent of the Democratic Progressive Party, the likelihood of such actions only increases.

It is not worth waiting for a significant aggravation of frozen conflicts until the middle of 2017. It is by this date that the new president should finally be established in the United States, that 8 will be elected on November 2016 of the year, and a new foreign policy line will be formulated. The most radical changes are waiting for the Far East when elected President Hillary Clinton, known for her radical views. Actually, it is precisely such an outcome that is eagerly awaited in Tokyo, Seoul, Taipei, Manila and other capitals. The widely publicized “return to the Pacific Ocean” from the Barack Obama administration turned out to be a cheap PR move. Moreover, the US allies began to receive even less military guarantees than they had under Obama's predecessors. This fact worried many regional governments and became one of the reasons for criticizing the president already in the United States.

Nevertheless, the United States will definitely more and more actively intervene in what is happening. 28 January 26 US fighters arrived on the Kadena base on the Japanese island of Okinawa - 14 F-22 and 12 F-16 units. Six days earlier, these F-22s arrived in Japan at Yokota base, in western Tokyo. Now it is more a demonstration step, but the next president of the United States of America will definitely pursue an even more assertive policy.

An important step in the formation of the new Asian alliance was the resolution, back in 2015, of the contradictions between South Korea and Japan over the issue of “women for comfort”. Back in 1965, a basic agreement was concluded between South Korea and Japan, under which Tokyo paid a neighbor 800 million dollars - a huge amount for those times, and Seoul refused to claim for damages for the colonial period. However, in the 2010 of the year, on the wave of nationalism fomenting in Korea, there were demands to demand more money from the Japanese in favor of specific victims, which caused bewilderment and indignation in Tokyo, saying that everything was paid for a long time. The Americans were forced to intervene in the dispute and the conflict was decided by a compromise. Japan once again made a formal apology and allocated 8,3 a million dollars to the fund for helping "women for comfort", and the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Korea Yoon Bye Xie announced a "final and irrevocable" settlement of the issue. Another slippery question about the islands of Liancourt (Tokdo), rejected by Seoul during the time of Lee Seung Man, the two sides decided to push the table so far. Not the last role in the sudden reconciliation of opponents played and the DPRK, the war with which both in Seoul and in Tokyo is increasingly perceived as almost inevitable.

As for Russia, in Asia it can play only in three possible roles: hegemon, authoritative neutral and dependent country. The Russian Empire tried to be the hegemon before the 1905 of the year, then the USSR in the 1945-1991. Since 1991, the Russian Federation exists in the Asia-Pacific region in two dimensions at once, being between the status of an authoritative neutral and a dependent country at the same time, and with a large constant drift from the first to the second.

In favor of her status as an authoritative neutral state speak past achievements, size, nuclear weaponrelatively modern air force, though outdated, but still inspiring respect for the Pacific Fleet. It is also important that Russia is the only large ethnically white country in the region. Moscow can be an intermediary in making peace between the warring countries and, say, without Russia it is impossible to imagine negotiations on the DPRK, although our country and North Korea are connected by a single bridge.

Russia, strong or weak, will in any case influence the regional balance of power. Even involuntary or forced actions of Moscow can change the overall balance. And these actions will inevitably follow for a number of objective reasons. Including quite radical. So, if, until recently, Russia has built a special relationship exclusively with China, then the economic downturn will force them to look for other regional partners - including to the detriment of Beijing. In the end, in politics there are no eternal friends and eternal enemies, but there are eternal interests. Anyway, 2016 year in the Asia-Pacific region will be rich in all sorts of military-political events.
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  1. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 29 January 2016 06: 13 New
    +4
    Well then, China will have to sink the Japanese unsinkable US aircraft carrier.
    1. Misha Honest
      Misha Honest 29 January 2016 08: 41 New
      +2
      It is urgent to build up the forces of the Far Eastern Military District. More precisely, this should have been done 10 years ago. request And the same "mistrals" and at least a couple of aircraft carriers in addition would not interfere with us now in the Pacific Ocean ... It is sad and ashamed that we are so "white and fluffy" ...
      1. hartlend
        hartlend 29 January 2016 13: 17 New
        0
        Resources are limited, which means there are more priority tasks. Well, the Mistrals were most likely bought for the Syrian campaign.
        1. Misha Honest
          Misha Honest 29 January 2016 13: 31 New
          0
          Quote: hartlend
          Resources are limited, which means there are more priority tasks. Well, the Mistrals were most likely bought for the Syrian campaign.

          What specific resources? Financial? And you look at the palaces of our politicians and oligarchs - here they are for you, resources! It’s disgusting to hear from everywhere such nonsense as “limited resources” or “no money” when bureaucrats are sitting on golden toilets!
  2. apro
    apro 29 January 2016 06: 29 New
    0
    Well, the PRC has problems, its currency reserves and a stable renminbi, as well as a sane leadership with a powerful industry, you don’t need to worry especially about them, they will always be able to annoy the amers, they will solve their problems with quiet glanders. Russia is only an outside observer and nothing more, from the Kuril cannot solve the problem, send Japan once and for all, and with respect to China, a junior partner.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 29 January 2016 06: 37 New
      +1
      Quote: apro
      .Russia is only an outside observer and can’t solve the Kuril problem, send Japan once and for all,

      This is you an outside observer and no more, not Russia! China cannot solve a bunch of territorial disputes, but you prefer not to remember it once again spitting in your country.
      Quote: apro
      , and with respect to China, a junior partner.

      Leave from Russia and we will at least take a break from those. Like you.
  3. Igor Polovodov
    Igor Polovodov 29 January 2016 06: 29 New
    +3
    A wonderful poster in a hat! Our school!
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 29 January 2016 07: 11 New
      15
      Quote: Igor Polovodov
      A wonderful poster in a hat! Our school!

      Well yes laughing
      1. Bayonet
        Bayonet 29 January 2016 18: 59 New
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Well yes
        1. Avantageur
          Avantageur 30 January 2016 00: 27 New
          +2
          Quote: Bayonet
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Well yes


    2. Beaver
      Beaver 29 January 2016 15: 24 New
      +2
      And the slogan is curious, if you look closely. Google translates it like: "People, do not force me, I do not 犯人, people, if you force me, I will 犯人". laughing
      1. Thunderbolt
        Thunderbolt 30 January 2016 06: 00 New
        +3
        We do not attack until we are attacked, if we are attacked, we definitely counterattack-That’s how this poster should be understood. By the way, this poster appeared immediately after the conflict on Damansky. And the fighters in the background do not just move out of the woods into the clearing, but run along the ice of Ussuri. Here’s another posterAttack the enemy to the last breathcalled. I think it is clear who they are going to attack in caps with earflaps and in deep snow.
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 30 January 2016 06: 07 New
          +2
          Quote: Thunderbolt
          I think it’s clear who they are going to attack in caps with earflaps and in deep snow.

          1. Poster 60s.
          2. They attacked amers in North Korea in deep snow.
          3. Already in old age, you will sit on the right in deep disappointment that Kitai has not attacked us laughing
          4.And more,And the fighters in the background do not just move out of the woods into the clearing, but run along the ice of Ussuri. Good fantasy lol
          1. Thunderbolt
            Thunderbolt 30 January 2016 06: 18 New
            +2
            1. A poster for an article in 1970. The second poster is 1971.
            2.Damansky-1969.
            3. They drove off the museum on the island, but they didn’t let foreigners there. The military zone. And they took their schoolchildren and soldiers on trips. They educate and take pride. That's it.
            1. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 30 January 2016 06: 32 New
              +2
              Quote: Thunderbolt
              3. They drove off the museum on the island, but they didn’t let foreigners there. The military zone. And they took their schoolchildren and soldiers on trips. They educate and take pride. That's it.

              You often shy away from the Saith mine, then you will believe that tomorrow the Martians will attack us.
              1. Chicot 1
                Chicot 1 30 January 2016 15: 28 New
                +2
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                You often shy away from the Sao pomoiki

                Interestingly, and on what sites do you shy away, Sanyok? .. And are all of these sites checked by the "Sanitary and Epidemiological Station" for "not garbage"? .. wink
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                then you will believe

                It is advisable to know for certain than to believe in something ... wink
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                that tomorrow the Martians will attack us

                And judging by your comments and comments, you thoroughly and in detail know all the plans and ideas of the political and military leadership of the Celestial Empire ... Well, if it is, then share it, do not be shy. Personally, I'm in the spotlight ... smile
  4. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 29 January 2016 06: 53 New
    +2
    But do they not want to peacefully resolve issues such as Taiwan’s entry into China on the basis of independent autonomy with its own laws? The Chinese have no experience in waging wars (the aggression in Vietnam taught them nothing) and the Chinese can only rely on themselves, and when trying to capture Taiwan here the United States, the Japanese, and the Australians, and even the British will go against the Celestial Empire, so that everything will remain as it is for many years to come.
    1. Mera joota
      Mera joota 29 January 2016 07: 13 New
      0
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      But they do not want to resolve peacefully issues — such as Taiwan’s entry into China on the back of independent autonomy with its own laws?

      It seemed to go to that, but the fact that the Chinese began to create in Hong Kong quickly educated the Taiwanese.
      1. Misha Honest
        Misha Honest 29 January 2016 08: 58 New
        +7
        Quote: Mera Joota
        It seemed to go to that, but the fact that the Chinese began to create in Hong Kong quickly educated the Taiwanese.

        Come on, in Hong Kong, the Chinese quite quickly eliminated the Yankees' attempt to arrange a Maidan in Hong Kong. And by the way, then, not only the United States supported this attempt, but Taiwan itself, along with Japan. Including financially. request
        1. Hon
          Hon 29 January 2016 13: 58 New
          +2
          Quote: Misha Honest
          Come on, in Hong Kong, the Chinese quite quickly eliminated the Yankees' attempt to arrange a Maidan in Hong Kong.

          The Taiwanese don’t want such liquidation at home, they live well, freely and richly without China.
          1. Misha Honest
            Misha Honest 29 January 2016 14: 11 New
            -2
            Free is like a US bridgehead? lol
            1. Hon
              Hon 29 January 2016 15: 39 New
              +1
              Quote: Misha Honest
              Free is like a US bridgehead?

              and what Taiwan has US military bases? cooperation with the Americans, this is an additional guarantee not attack from China.
              Free for Taiwanese is the absence of corruption, democracy (not what the United States is spreading around the world), a fair distribution of wealth between all citizens of the country, and not just the elite. All of this, Taiwan may lose, first of all, personal freedoms, and the ability to decide their own destiny.
              1. Misha Honest
                Misha Honest 29 January 2016 18: 54 New
                0
                Quote: Hon
                and what Taiwan has US military bases?

                With the new government of Taiwan they will definitely be! laughing But even so, American military aircraft regularly fly to visit. request
                http://yablor.ru/blogs/amerikanskie-f-18c-na-tayvane-sluch/4970204
                Quote: Hon
                Free for Taiwanese is the absence of corruption, democracy (not what the United States is spreading around the world), a fair distribution of wealth between all citizens of the country, and not just the elite. All of this, Taiwan may lose, first of all, personal freedoms, and the ability to decide their own destiny.

                They, as you described it, lose this freedom one way or another. For either they are with China or the United States - there is no third. And which option do not choose - all the same, the Taiwan government will be subordinate to either one or the other side. request
                Now Taiwan has chosen to lie under the Yankees, that's all ...
                1. Hon
                  Hon 29 January 2016 22: 18 New
                  0
                  Korea and the United States, even their Armed Forces will be under the command of the Americans in the event of war, however, there is no sign of subordination, at least they did not even think of imposing sanctions on us, and they tried to steal their helicopter carriers.
                  And Belarus is with us, while Lukashenko regularly sends us to the stump, we have to appease him to be friends.
                  Assad lost on the fact that in Syria, Russian military bases? It's not so bad sometimes to have a strong ally on your side and deploy its military bases, especially if these bases are in order to protect you.
                  Vietnam is now more and more friends with the United States, again because of China, it’s hard to say about Vietnam that it went under someone’s
                  1. Misha Honest
                    Misha Honest 29 January 2016 23: 02 New
                    -1
                    Quote: Hon
                    Korea and the United States, even their Armed Forces will be under the command of the Americans in the event of war, however, there is no sign of subordination, at least they did not even think of imposing sanctions on us, and they tried to steal their helicopter carriers.

                    I think that the South Koreans simply do not see us as an adversary, moreover, the Damocles sword hangs in the form of S. Korea above them. + They constantly swear with the Japanese, and even the same China, which seems to be loyal - in fact, it can always change its mind. So they are not yet up to us.
                    Quote: Hon
                    And Belarus is with us, while Lukashenko regularly sends us to the stump, we have to appease him to be friends.

                    And what remains for him to do if for Belarus we are the main trading partner, with some former Soviet republics some kind of trade is going on ... and that's all. Where does a strong economy come from? And we constantly turn our nose, and tear off, we are still trying to stick ... And then we ourselves are giving Belarus loans ... Thus, Russia itself is driving Belarus into a trap. request
                    Quote: Hon
                    Assad lost on the fact that in Syria, Russian military bases? It's not so bad sometimes to have a strong ally on your side and deploy its military bases, especially if these bases are in order to protect you.
                    Vietnam is now more and more friends with the United States, again because of China, it’s hard to say about Vietnam that it went under someone’s

                    Assad certainly won ... some time for a respite for his bloodless country. But how long will ours be in Syria? Americans, unlike us, where they came to, bite their teeth into the ground and it is very difficult to drive them out ...
                    I can’t say anything about Vietnam for sure, but there are justifiable fears about them ...

                    The Americans act like a mafia - once they’ve done something with them and there’s no turning back - only with their feet forward ...
                    1. Hon
                      Hon 29 January 2016 23: 18 New
                      0
                      [quote = Misha Honest] I think that Yu. Koreans simply do not see us as an enemy, besides, above them, and so the sword of Damocles hangs in the form of S. Korea. They constantly argue with the Japanese, and the same China, which seems to be loyal, in fact can always change its mind. So they have no time for us yet. [/ Quote]
                      And Taiwan has a sword of Damocles, China, so they are friends with the United States, and the United States does not interfere with their development, just like Korea, and does not meddle in their politics, does not impose anything on them. And also a trading partner, how many pluses
                      vparit. [/ quote]
                      What did the US mafia do for Korea? Do they buy goods, allow them to get rich? Provide them protection from patients on the head of northerners? A free DPRK eats grass while the enslaved Republic of Korea becomes one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world.
                      1. Misha Honest
                        Misha Honest 30 January 2016 00: 02 New
                        -1
                        Quote: Hon
                        And Taiwan has a sword of Damocles, China, so they are friends with the United States, and the United States does not interfere with their development, like Korea, and does not interfere in their policies, does not impose anything on them. And also a trading partner, how many pluses
                        vparit.

                        When have you ever seen the United States stay out of the politics of other countries? No wonder now all European politicians, as one, are afraid to say a word across the United States. Such a "reliable" trading partner that Yu presses on Korean companies. And he also sells outdated weapons to Koreans at inflated prices - why do you think South Korea and Japan are now switching over to the production of their own weapons? Examples of this include fighters, tanks, and Japanese landing platforms.
                        Quote: Hon
                        What did the US mafia do for Korea? Do they buy goods, allow them to get rich? Provide them protection from patients on the head of northerners? A free DPRK eats grass while the enslaved Republic of Korea becomes one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world.

                        The United States is shaking the carrot in Taiwan and South Korea in front of their noses, and on the other hand, they are whipping them around. That's why, and "grass" is something in North Korea, just not. But in the south, trade in it is just flourishing - thanks to the United States. Business is good, isn't it? laughing Yu. Korean and Japanese economic miracles became possible only thanks to the mentality of the people of these countries: hard work, sometimes reaching fanaticism and perseverance. And certainly not because the Yankees are their patrons. I think that if it were not for UN sanctions, S. Koreans could well have reached the same heights. request

                      2. Hon
                        Hon 30 January 2016 04: 37 New
                        +1
                        Can the points when and in what the United States got into the affairs of Taiwan?
                        European politicians have personally told you what they are afraid of?
                        Can you give more details on what and which Korean companies have pressed the Americans?
                        How overpriced was the price of weapons sold to the Koreans? By the way, they also buy weapons from us.
                        It is strange that when we produce our weapons, this is normal, and if Koreans and Japanese do it, then this is the fault of the Americans. Have you ever thought that the reason for the development of the Korean military-industrial complex is that it is a business, and the Koreans want to make money on it?
                        I don’t know what the Americans are shaking and chasing there, but Korea and Taiwan are rich, developed, technologically advanced countries that sell high-tech products around the world, but even so, we pump all the oil and gas parts that are more independent on them, and the Americans dropped our currency below baseboards.
                        In order for the country to become rich and developed, it is necessary to work hard, and still make the right economic decisions, which is actually what we see in Korea and Japan, and also in Taiwan. And they really owe their well-being primarily to themselves, and the United States is only a market for their products, and for the Chinese too, the United States and China for a moment are each other's main trading partners.
                        By the way, the UN led sanctions against the DPRK in response to their nuclear program, relatively recently, Russia also voted for these sanctions, and China has not been blocked0, this is its own leadership that has taken the path of self-isolation, they can easily trade with China, Russia and other countries , but they can’t because they produce practically nothing interesting for other countries. Moreover, bad Americans even deliver humanitarian aid to the DPRK. I’m not happy to transfer Kim’s blame for the appalling economic situation to Americans.
                        The Chinese were also in poor economic condition until they introduced economic reforms and allowed business and market relations.
                      3. Misha Honest
                        Misha Honest 30 January 2016 14: 05 New
                        0
                        Judging by your position, you are clearly defending the United States, either simply too naive, or you just enjoy the argument itself from another. However, I have already expressed everything that I wanted to continue to delve into this debate on this issue or explain things that are understandable to others, but not understandable for some reason to you ... Otherwise, we can argue here for the rest of my life, which is in my plans Excluded. request
                      4. Hon
                        Hon 30 January 2016 23: 23 New
                        0
                        I always try to assess the situation objectively, and objectively it is worth noting that cooperation with the USA is a guarantee of security for many countries. It is also worth noting that Korea and Taiwan are highly developed, in all respects, and are free both from the point of view of personal freedoms and politically, and they do not have masters in Washington. The huge US consumer market also provides many countries with sales, and here, first of all, China, these countries are the main trading partners.
  • Letnab
    Letnab 29 January 2016 08: 25 New
    +2
    But they are very active in learning!
  • Sergej1972
    Sergej1972 29 January 2016 10: 20 New
    +1
    Thus, China proposes the entry of Taiwan on the right to preserve its political system, membership in international economic organizations, and even with the preservation of its own army and the right to purchase weapons from the United States. That is, autonomy is much greater than that of Hong Kong and Macau.
    1. Hon
      Hon 29 January 2016 13: 59 New
      0
      Quote: Sergej1972
      Thus, China proposes the entry of Taiwan on the right to preserve its political system, membership in international economic organizations, and even with the preservation of its own army and the right to purchase weapons from the United States. That is, autonomy is much greater than that of Hong Kong and Macau

      They also promised a lot to Hong Kong.
  • Karlovar
    Karlovar 29 January 2016 12: 20 New
    +1
    Google the Imjin War, where the Chinese (and Koreans) "did not fight" with an army that has continuously trained in internecine wars for centuries ....
    1. Hon
      Hon 29 January 2016 14: 00 New
      0
      Quote: Karlovar
      Google the Imjin War, where the Chinese (and Koreans) "did not fight" with an army that has continuously trained in internecine wars for centuries ....

      and more than once raked from a weaker opponent
  • inkass_98
    inkass_98 29 January 2016 07: 01 New
    +1
    Something Kibalchish went for a repeat, there was already an article on this topic, only now Russia has also harnessed Russia to the Sino-Taiwanese-Japanese-American games. There’s such a criblo that you can’t figure it out without a bottle: Korea, Vietnam, and other interested people are ready to cling to each other’s faces, and China’s ass. While Russia's role there is neutral, you can wait.
    And one more thing: all of the above is not pure Far East, it is more about the problems of Southeast Asia.
  • Free wind
    Free wind 29 January 2016 07: 04 New
    0
    The one that seems to be right now with a grenade on the head doesn’t hit the head while this one waves its hands wink
  • Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 29 January 2016 07: 15 New
    +2
    Taiwan is slowly "sailing" from China further and further. The strait is wide enough to capture the island in one throw, and the mattress promised to intervene, if anything.
    The author buries China early. China is not the first time to "pierce bubbles" in the stock market - the Chinese are gambling on the stock exchange, and the figure flashed that one hundred million is playing! They have such fun, like a lottery, or rather, "MMM". The one that is not worth judging the state of the Chinese economy by the stock exchange.
    So there will be no "complete merger" in relations between China and Taiwan for a long time. But there will be no war of conquest either. Why China?
    1. Karlovar
      Karlovar 29 January 2016 12: 30 New
      0
      China has already tied Taiwan economically! There they have complete (almost) interdependence ....
  • sa-ag
    sa-ag 29 January 2016 07: 18 New
    +1
    "... So, if until recently Russia was building a special relationship exclusively with China, then the economic downturn will make it look for other regional partners - including to the detriment of Beijing."

    Well, given that most of the countries of Southeast Asia have signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and this year Japan and South Korea are expected to join it, then a strong deficit is emerging with partners
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 29 January 2016 07: 31 New
      -3
      Quote: sa-ag
      then a strong deficit looms with partners

      I thought for a long time that I would come to such a conclusion from my own Germany.
    2. user
      user 29 January 2016 08: 55 New
      0
      Well, given that most of the countries of Southeast Asia have signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and this year Japan and South Korea are expected to join it, then a strong deficit is emerging with partners


      It is just against this background that new alliances will form and, by the way, partners who have not signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership are also not frail.
      1. Misha Honest
        Misha Honest 29 January 2016 09: 05 New
        0
        Quote: user
        who did not sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership are also not frail.
  • rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 29 January 2016 07: 48 New
    +2
    It seems to me that China will somehow deal with this problem itself. They have enough bright heads, and the military component is not the same as 20 years ago.
    The United States will definitely intervene more and more actively

    Well, without it, no matter how. However, the Americans have repeatedly experienced the rigidity and integrity of China, so they will not openly act brazenly. And it’s necessary to harm and put sticks in the wheels.
    1. Bayonet
      Bayonet 29 January 2016 19: 07 New
      0
      Quote: rotmistr60
      However, the Americans have repeatedly experienced the rigidity and integrity of China

      The (last) Chinese warning is a humorous expression in Russian, meaning fruitless warnings “in words”, while it is known that no action will follow. smile The “latest warnings” of the Chinese government were regularly broadcast by news agencies and became a byword. Since then, in Russian, the expression “(last) Chinese warning” has become a household word. Various versions of this popular expression are used, for example: “647th Chinese warning”, “723th, last, Chinese warning”, etc. hi
  • Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 29 January 2016 09: 26 New
    0
    The economy is pushing both sides to confrontation. In Taiwan, the decline continues today. As for the PRC, here, according to financial analysts, in the next two years a complete collapse of the stock market is expected. Preparing for it, investors withdrew more than 2015 trillions of dollars from 1 from the People's Republic of China in the year of China. The collapse of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the rapid outflow of capital from the Middle Kingdom draw a line under the forty years of the "economic miracle." Then either stagnation or recession.

    Along with the end of a long period of economic growth, the political era ends - the era of expansion, although it would be more correct to call it the era of simple territorial seizures. It began from the times of the Civil War and the accession of Tibet and continued further with the absorption of the Paracel Islands, Hong Kong, Macao, the Big Ussuri Island, the border regions of the Central Asian republics of the former USSR and other territories. The next was to be Taiwan, but did not. Now, together with the Taiwanese elections, a barrier has fallen before a further territorial expansion of the PRC. More precisely, the expansion itself, of course, is possible - by military means, which by no means guarantees victory, and at the price of the final collapse of the economy.
    If China begins a period of decline and civil wars, then it will not seem enough to all neighbors, including us. It is scary to imagine how many refugees alone will be.
  • rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 29 January 2016 11: 38 New
    +1
    Quote: Nikolay71
    As for China, here, according to financial analysts, a complete collapse of the stock market is expected in the next two years.

    And you trust analysts less, especially the western. They have been claiming for the second year that a full scribe came to Russia too. But, something reality somehow does not fit with forecasts.
  • Yugan Oleg
    Yugan Oleg 29 January 2016 11: 47 New
    0
    Not a sunken aircraft carrier - not the Japanese islands, but Taiwan.
    Whose aircraft carrier is it?
    - American.
    And if there will be no America, not in the physical, but in the financial and economic plan. How soon will the problem with the reunification of Taiwan and China be resolved?
    Well, do not consider the Chinese as idiots. With a quiet glanders, they do their job. By the way, the yuan has recently become a reserve currency along with the dollar, euro, yen, pound.
    1. Karlovar
      Karlovar 29 January 2016 12: 36 New
      0
      For a long time, the Americans didn’t sell weapons to the Taiwanese for one interesting reason — the Taiwanese military transmitted (and transmit) all military secrets to the mainland! I suspect that in many cases this is done for free, for the idea, so to speak ...
  • Cobra77
    Cobra77 29 January 2016 12: 15 New
    +1
    "The DPRK also played an important role in the sudden reconciliation of the opponents, the war with which in Seoul and Tokyo is increasingly perceived as practically inevitable." - another analyst from the couch. Yes, none of the three sides are going to fight. The risks are huge and the benefits are very small in every sense. It is much more profitable for both Seoul and Tokyo to have such a "scarecrow" and to increase the military budget for this business. An external enemy is always convenient.
  • Balagan
    Balagan 29 January 2016 18: 32 New
    +1
    Something familiar picture. This, by chance, is not a Chinese poster for events in Damansky?
  • Former battalion commander
    Former battalion commander 29 January 2016 20: 02 New
    0
    Judging by the tone of the article, did the Russian leadership decide to "throw" China? You can't come up with a more stupid decision ... Yes, in fact, from this (Russian (?)) Leadership, one should not expect anything else ... There is no order in my house and constantly raging with all neighbors ... But maybe the author of the article is mistaken? And all is not lost, maybe the brains of the Russian leadership are not completely atrophied yet?
  • misterwulf
    misterwulf 29 January 2016 21: 57 New
    0
    I read somewhere that Taiwan is not Chinese at all. Like, islanders. Relatives of the Japanese, Filipinos, and other Polynesians and New Zealanders ...
    Really no? I do not know. But! Chiang Kai-shek himself provoked the territorial claims of China on Taipei. They themselves are to blame.
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  • Private27
    Private27 30 January 2016 07: 19 New
    0
    Well, I don’t know. But we must not forget that China is a nuclear power. Although the nippons didn’t let any foreign rescuers go to Fakusima, and even if there will be a massacre of the Japanese between JAPAN and CHINA, RUSSIA will most likely support China. soldier