Military Review

Is there a way out of the trap? On constitutional reform in Ukraine

52
Tired of war, Ukraine. Tired of Ukraine, Russia. Tired of the European Union of Ukraine. Even spit on US European affairs in anticipation of their own elections. That is the reality today. A lot of problems at all. Plus the global global crisis. Not to Ukrainian dances.




Ukrainians are increasingly talking about the "plum" of the country by opponents and allies. Now Merkel, Cameron, and even Obama are already in the camp of the enemies of Ukraine. Just because they start asking about real things. Talk, of course, well. But the money that goes to Ukraine is real. Where are the real cases?

The most important thing that politicians are talking about today is the adoption by Ukraine of amendments to the constitution. This should happen literally now. More precisely, before the end of the session Rada. Until 2 February. And everyone already understands the delusional nature of this assumption. It is clear - to accept such changes will not work. Why?

Let's consider the options. There are not many of them. What for Ukraine and the authorities can end any of the decisions?

The most optimistic from the point of view of the West and some of the Ukrainian politicians is the option of making changes. That is Rada in recent days still goes to an agreement with Poroshenko. There is no time to consider the changes and they are accepted in the form that the presidential administration presented.

It seems to be all. The constitution can be changed, everyone got theirs. Special status for Donbass adopted. Is it all?

According to the Minsk agreements, the changes must be coordinated with LDNR. It is agreed. And where is the agreement? He simply does not. And what does that mean? This means that all efforts were in vain. Parties to the conflict do not recognize this as the fulfillment of the agreement. And they will be right.

And then both sides get a legally justified opportunity to start another exacerbation. Again the war. Again the blood. Only in the new conditions, already in the new format.

It is doubtful that Russia or the United States in this case will be able to stop those they support. "Felling" will start much more serious.

Considered option, to be honest, from a series of unscientific fiction. The present Rada is simply not able to adequately address issues. It seems to me that the deputies, even on the edge of the abyss, will not be able to decide whether or not to press the brake. So go to this very abyss. So go to the most likely.

This option is simple. Voting will fail. This is said by many, including Ukrainian, political scientists. The presidential project fails to garner 300 votes. Even the administrative resource does not work. You can say the reasons for this position of deputies, but this is not the topic of today's article. The main thing is fact.

The failure of the vote automatically transfers, according to the regulations, this very vote for a year. Rada puts Ukraine in a position of neither peace nor war. Another year.

This position will mean the actual recognition of the country as non-negotiable. And not only by Russia, but also by other members of the contact group on Donbass. Yes, and Poroshenko actually lose this status. How can you talk about something with the president if his words are worthless?

Under these conditions, the LDNR will simply be forced to continue the formation of their own statehood. It is statehood. In particular, it seems to me that elections of the parliament and heads of republics will be held. Moreover, taking into account past experience, the elections will be "European". With the participation of observers from the EU, and maybe the UN.

And then we get a government that is legitimate from the point of view of international law and the presidents of these republics. So what is next? Next is a full-fledged subject of negotiations already under the auspices of the UN. In fact, we get new states on the world map.

And, at least, in the rank of Abkhazia or Transnistria. But not "temporarily occupied" territory by terrorists.

And what, in this case, expects what remains of Ukraine? Here the picture is not at all bright. Ukraine faces a political and economic crisis. Even a crash is possible. And such a crisis is no match for today.

In politics - breaking the current power system. Deputies will move from faction to faction. Parties to create and destroy alliances. Not because there will be such a desire. This is the logic of the survival of politicians at the peak. Or you populist and have "your" layer of voters. Or the road to your political non-existence. Look at how quickly society “forgot” such a colorful figure as Yarosh.

It will be the same with officials. Already today we read in social networks that we need to change many. Practically those who are satisfied with the Ukrainians, no more. "All on Gilyak" and at all levels.

What will the officials do in this case? Will they be able to carry out at least some reforms? I think the reader has already answered this question. Reforms always cause rejection of a certain part of the population. A protest that can spill over into anything. Risks the prime minister (anyone, not only Yatsenyuk) to hold them? It is doubtful.

And further. No reforms - no loans. The position of the EU and the IMF is clear. This is in the face of the complete collapse of its own economy, the death of the country. No longer talk of death, but real death. All social programs will fly to hell. The population will turn into opponents of everyone and everything.

What Ukrainian politicians have done with the Ukrainian economy becomes the very guillotine that will “shorten” many of them to their heads.

There is another option that is acceptable for Kiev. Namely - postponing the vote. A variant that is more and more often spoken about in the West today. They say so much that it creates a feeling about the "Western roots" of this decision.

The bottom line is simple. Understanding the impossibility of getting approval now, the government is “delaying” the process for the next session. For this today, frantically looking for loopholes in the legislation, regulations, anywhere, for such a decision. I think they will find a loophole.

In this case, for a period of time, Ukraine still has a chance to get loans. For some handouts from the West. And the crisis will be mothballed. There will be time for the next search for a solution. So what? Never mind. Preservation is not a solution, even the opposite. This is a deepening of contradictions.

And the reaction of Russia in this case will be different. Poroshenko and his curators are counting on the calmness of the Kremlin. On the "contemplative pose" Putin. Is it worth it? It seems to me not worth it. The negotiators, the "talkers," have too angry the Russian president. It's time to answer for your words. Everybody. And Russia, and Ukraine, and the United States, and the EU.

It seems to me that Ukraine will have to respond with the loss of some other part of the territory. At least, to the borders of Lugansk and Donetsk regions. Keep the army LDNR from the onset of Russia will not.

And finally, the most likely option from my point of view.

The position of all in the negotiations in Minsk is clear. Unconditional implementation of the Minsk agreements. True, in fact these agreements, many contradictions. West pretends not to notice the fraud in Kiev. European politicians are trying to slip instead of the existing agreements surrogates from some interpretations. For example - talking about border control.

Then comes the "epiphany". In the contact group "suddenly" read the agreement. Literally read. And Kiev will point to the discrepancy between interpretations and written. Kiev recognizes its "myopia" and will assure everyone that it is ready to perform. Perform exactly as recorded. The points.

And begins the classic process of political "burden". National discussion. Debate in Parliament. Consultations in the EU and the UN. Coordination and negotiations. And all this against the background of continued financing of the Ukrainian revolution of the IMF and the countries of creditors.

Poroshenko ratings stabilize. The people will start to believe that it is he who decides something. The government is finishing work on the destruction of the economy of Ukraine. A curtain!

I admit even the implementation of constitutional reform, after some time. This is more than likely. Only this reform will turn from a solution to today's problems into a nail into the lid of the coffin of Ukraine. Constitutional reform will be the final stage of the legal destruction of the state. Beautifully designed destruction of a single country.

No one will give guarantees of integrity during this reform. A federation, and even more so a confederation, may well end in a “scattering” of territories.

And at the same time, constitutional reform will push everyone else. A sort of snowball that rolls somewhere. I do not want to say - into the abyss. Just do not know the final point. Yes, no one can know this. But this point is clearly different from the point of departure.

There is exactly one week left until the time when we will see which of the proposed scenarios will be implemented. Just a week. Seven days. We wait.
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  1. Pereira
    Pereira 28 January 2016 06: 11 New
    +6
    It seems to me that in a week there will be no clarity either. At the same time they will fulfill the agreements and torpedo.
    1. Voha_krim
      Voha_krim 28 January 2016 07: 38 New
      +1
      Kiev decided to continue the civil war in the east

      Recent statements by the head of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, about official Kiev’s readiness to disrupt the Minsk process by initiating an attack on Donetsk and Lugansk, seem to have been prophetic.

      Source: https://versia.ru/ukrainskie-voennye-bolee-ne-zainteresovany-v-peremirii-na-donb
      axis
      1. Stanislav
        Stanislav 28 January 2016 14: 53 New
        0
        Most likely it will.
        1. domokl
          domokl 28 January 2016 18: 02 New
          0
          That's it ... Moved the vote to the next session ... Ie. One of the options worked. Let’s take a look, it will be further as it is written.
    2. siberalt
      siberalt 28 January 2016 08: 23 New
      +2
      Ukraine is like a parliamentary republic. Parashenko himself can not do anything, as the motley Parliament. Ukraine historically independently is not able to build a state. Not for that sharpened her.
      1. APASUS
        APASUS 28 January 2016 10: 54 New
        +2
        Quote: siberalt
        Ukraine is like a parliamentary republic. Parashenko himself can not do anything, as the motley Parliament. Ukraine historically independently is not able to build a state. Not for that sharpened her.

        Maybe everything is much more prosaic? You can’t use the laws without respecting them at the same time. Where is the point from which the European state’s construction begins? All the time from the Maidan to the last there is a gross violation of morality, laws and rules of life.
        In these conditions, a couple of changes to the BUSINESS CONSTITUTION of Ukraine will not change anything.
    3. Finches
      Finches 28 January 2016 09: 45 New
      +7
      In Ukraine, the exit from vrmen Bohdan Khmelnitsky has not changed! The only correct one and already proven by centuries of history ...... Only without Galicia! Let this geographic trachimonade remain in the body of "enlightened" Europe!
      1. Aljavad
        Aljavad 28 January 2016 18: 55 New
        +2
        geographical trachimonade

        good good laughing
        1. Cat man null
          Cat man null 28 January 2016 20: 22 New
          0
          Quote: Finches
          trachimonade

          - in itself is already good love
  2. tommy717
    tommy717 28 January 2016 06: 18 New
    +4
    How do you want this circus to quickly end, but the rush is good only when fishing, you know who. So, you still have to wait until this trap works.
  3. waitknait
    waitknait 28 January 2016 06: 19 New
    +2
    Just sadness ...
  4. Same lech
    Same lech 28 January 2016 06: 22 New
    +4
    Next is a full-fledged subject of negotiations already under the auspices of the UN. De facto we get new states on the world map.


    It is unlikely that the UN will do anything here.
    Everything will happen as it does with ABKHAZIA and SOUTH OSSETIA ...
    DONBASS and LNR will for a long time have the status of unrecognized republics in the UN and this can go on for decades.
    1. Aljavad
      Aljavad 28 January 2016 19: 01 New
      +5
      Everything will happen as it does with ABKHAZIA and SOUTH OSSETIA ...
      DONBASS and LNR will for a long time have the status of unrecognized republics in the UN and this can go on for decades.


      ... And Donbass will be so insulting, insulting. Yes? They will receive all the passports of the Russian Federation, will improve their lives (and they know how!) They will sign an agreement with us on the protection of the external border. Nicaragua recognizes them. Well, there will be no vote at the UN. So what? But the war will end. And on mov no one will force anyone to force.
  5. Wolka
    Wolka 28 January 2016 06: 23 New
    +1
    The tactics of the Euromaidan government of Svidomo are exactly that, this is the maximum delay in the process of inevitable territorial disintegration, and then ... Russia will help us, but where will she go from the Ukrainian Svidomo people, distraught with hunger and cold, so gentlemen Russians get ready to once again feed and heat Svidomo "brother" ...
    1. Igor F.
      Igor F. 28 January 2016 09: 05 New
      +2
      Yeah, of course .. You give this "brother" irrecoverable money, feed it, heat it with "free" gas, and in return you will get a spit in the soul .. No, we went through this more than once .. It is known that they learn from mistakes !
  6. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 28 January 2016 06: 35 New
    +3
    Nonsense !!! one call from the State Department and I’ll be glad to accept all the amendments without reading. Just as always, then they will be interpreted in their own way on ukroin and naturally they will not be executed in Kiev.
  7. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 28 January 2016 06: 35 New
    +3
    Ukrainians are increasingly talking about the "drain" of the country by opponents and allies. Now Merkel, Cameron and even Obama are already falling into the camp of Ukraine's enemies.
    They are so carried away by their greatness that they do not notice that everything worthwhile (the Antonov Concern, for example) no longer belongs to them and the country is turning into a colony, albeit an unofficial one.
    1. Aljavad
      Aljavad 28 January 2016 19: 05 New
      +2
      everything worthwhile (Concern "Antonov" for example) no longer belongs to them


      The concern ordered a long life .... hi
      The Ukrainian government liquidated the Antonov aircraft manufacturing concern in connection with the transfer of all three of its enterprises to Ukroboronprom.


      And he was reformed!
  8. parusnik
    parusnik 28 January 2016 06: 39 New
    +3
    Given the kind of attack that began on Russia, the president is a corrupt official and sold the riches of Russia, they shot a film, killed Litvinenko and shot down Boeing and other, other things .. it says more that a breakdown of the Minsk agreements is being prepared .. from Ukraine there is little that depends .. maybe as a supplier of cannon fodder ..
    1. domokl
      domokl 28 January 2016 06: 43 New
      +2
      The conversation is not about what depends on Ukraine. I think the conversation about how the West will put sticks in our wheels. Nobody canceled the task of pushing the costs of restoring the former Ukraine ... Nobody wants to invest in a bottomless hole. So, it is necessary to force Russia to do this ..
      1. Pereira
        Pereira 28 January 2016 06: 55 New
        +2
        This could have been done if Russia had managed to vparit all of Ukraine. But why do we need Galicia? The Poles endorse her path.
        And Novorossia is quite capable of not only fitting into our economy, but also of giving a synergistic effect.
        1. sa-ag
          sa-ag 28 January 2016 07: 00 New
          +2
          Quote: Pereira
          But why do we need Galicia?

          And why didn’t they ask such questions in the USSR?
          1. ankir13
            ankir13 28 January 2016 08: 45 New
            +3
            As it turned out now, they didn’t ask in vain. What is Russia in Galicia, which does not feed her how much, and she still has a stone in her bosom ... Why feed them?!? It is better to build mutually beneficial interstate relations.
            1. Villon
              Villon 29 January 2016 15: 28 New
              0
              Russia has once wanted to build mutually beneficial interstate relations with Ukraine. Offered her to enter the Customs Union. It ended with Maidan and the overthrow of the legitimate president.
      2. Villon
        Villon 29 January 2016 15: 23 New
        0
        Isn't it possible to induce or force the Ukrainians themselves to work to rebuild their country? Then it will not be a "bottomless hole"
  9. bad
    bad 28 January 2016 06: 50 New
    0
    Is there a way out of the trap. On constitutional reform in Ukraine
    .. what other reforms? .. the doctor said to the morgue ... then to the morgue .. laughing
    1. Pereira
      Pereira 28 January 2016 06: 57 New
      +1
      The doctor had not said yet - to the morgue. The doctor continues to galvanize the corpse with sadistic pleasure.
  10. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 28 January 2016 07: 05 New
    0
    And in a week everything will remain at the same level and in the same manner of execution. The West, not seeing any progress, will tacitly agree with Ukraine, help it financially and, as usual, roll another barrel to Russia.
  11. nivander
    nivander 28 January 2016 07: 22 New
    +8
    country of unfulfilled hopes
  12. Neophyte
    Neophyte 28 January 2016 07: 26 New
    -5
    I doubt that the Kremlin is angry with the negotiators? Trutnev was publicly told that in Davos it was not necessary to strain the biceps, it was only Caesar’s business! True, Caesar, something thoughtful and indecisive, it’s clear that it’s all done! what to do with the falling economy of Russia?
    1. Jurkovs
      Jurkovs 28 January 2016 08: 46 New
      +5
      I do not agree. It has long been noticed that if Putin teaches Vysotsky, then he is in a good mood.
    2. Aljavad
      Aljavad 28 January 2016 19: 10 New
      0
      Trutnev was publicly told


      Trutnev - mildly so - chided! Like, "don't screw them up, little ones"!
  13. Riv
    Riv 28 January 2016 07: 58 New
    +2
    The author has only hints. "I think ..." "It seems to me ..." "... probably ..." "... options ..." Morning fortune telling on the coffee grounds? Time will tell. But if the author thinks that he will be able to predict the actions of Ukrainian politicians, then let him first practice in a madhouse on psychos.
    1. Oldwiser
      Oldwiser 28 January 2016 08: 47 New
      +4
      Quote: Riv
      Che, the author has some hints

      Learning from the brazen Saxons - "probably", "possible", "presumably" (probably, possible, premindly)
      1. Villon
        Villon 29 January 2016 15: 31 New
        0
        premindly?
    2. Villon
      Villon 29 January 2016 15: 29 New
      0
      Ukrainians are more interesting.
  14. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs 28 January 2016 08: 44 New
    +4
    Roman Skomorokhov stamps articles like bakery cakes. All its variants are not worth a damn. There are really only two options. First: the West gives money to Kiev, and then dirt and blood, until someone else's victory: Donbass or Kiev. And let the Russians kill the Russians as much as possible. Second: the West does not give money to Kiev and a fight will begin between the center and the regions and in the regions themselves. And again, dirt and blood. And again, the Russians kill the Russians. For the West, both options are good, but the second is cheaper: no money is needed. The main thing is that the Russians kill the Russians, and as much as possible.
    1. domokl
      domokl 28 January 2016 09: 41 New
      0
      Quote: Jurkovs
      There are really only two options.

      laughing Are you writing about the constitution of Ukraine? Or about something else .. An article about the constitution, and a comment about what?
      But according to the comment. Gives does not give now is not particularly relevant. the West cannot but give ... the amount of invested funds has already become not a problem, but the defense of Kiev. And everyone understands this. It will ruin the west of Ukraine, so what? who will return the money? So, the EU and the US have no alternatives.
      1. Villon
        Villon 29 January 2016 15: 59 New
        0
        The West gives it this way: with one hand it gives, with the other it takes it back. There remains a loan. The West has already given Ukraine $ 160 billion for giving up nuclear weapons. Where, who has these billions now? Not in Ukraine.
  15. ecologer
    ecologer 28 January 2016 08: 50 New
    11
    Thanks to comrade Putin for the "little green men", we would not have moved this Ukrogalitsky Euro-hospital in Crimea.
  16. Scud
    Scud 28 January 2016 09: 15 New
    +3
    Ukrainians are a cowardly, ungrateful aching nation, which received unexpected freedom and sighs for carefree and moderately satisfying days of slavery. Of course, it is difficult to call a great nation. A. Turchinov. The Evening News newspaper n 141 from September 19-25, 2003
    1. Scud
      Scud 28 January 2016 10: 09 New
      0
      It is strange why minus the quotation from the speech of Turchinov, secretary of the Security Council of Ukropia, and recently the acting president.
    2. Scud
      Scud 28 January 2016 10: 09 New
      0
      It is strange why minus the quotation from the speech of Turchinov, secretary of the Security Council of Ukropia, and recently the acting president.
    3. Aljavad
      Aljavad 28 January 2016 19: 14 New
      0
      SCAD UA Today, 09:15
      Ukrainians are a cowardly, ungrateful aching nation, which received unexpected freedom and sighs for carefree and moderately satisfying days of slavery. Of course, it is difficult to call a great nation. A. Turchinov. The Evening News newspaper n 141 from September 19-25, 2003


      And someone minusanul! I did not agree with Turchinov ....
  17. misterwulf
    misterwulf 28 January 2016 09: 22 New
    +6
    As a PROFESSIONAL lawyer (regardless of whom I serve and for whom I worked in the past. There were a lot of things. I repeat, the flag is a misunderstanding of the Internet and Forum Admins. I am a Sevastopol and we are Russia).
    So, at one time I taught CONSTITUTIONAL LAW at my own university. And a few more subjects, such as "traditional law" (see Sharia ... etc.) And more. Do you think why I am so "trained" wink

    So here. The Constitution is adopted ONCE AND FOREVER! It is adopted by the PEOPLE AT THE REFERENDUM, which is spelled out in the very first edition of the Ukrainian Constitution. In the conditions that the then President Kuchma arranged for himself, it was necessary to adopt the Constitution URGENTLY! However, there was a reservation about the referendum (which was immediately forgotten at the request of Kuchma-Medvedchuk).
    Circumstances dictate a manner of behavior..
    As a result, Leonid Danilovich SAM planted a bomb, sending a document under the loud name of the Constitution of Ukraine to the Parliament and the Venice Commission!
    When every new composition of the Rada can, without the will of the people, constantly CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION with 300 VOTES! This is GESTURE !! BUT! This is the reality of the United Kingdom.
    New government - NEW CONSTITUTION!
    -----------
    Therefore, the clause of the "Minsk Agreements" on changing the "Constitution of Ukraine" is really not worth the cost of ink under the signature. IMHO
  18. Million
    Million 28 January 2016 09: 23 New
    +4
    In our constitution, it would also be nice to fix something ....
  19. surrozh
    surrozh 28 January 2016 10: 27 New
    +1
    The Minsk agreements are political; there are no punitive measures for non-implementation. "Ukrainian corpse" can move for a long time on the infusion of the West, he does not care about the traps.
  20. skeptik2999
    skeptik2999 28 January 2016 10: 38 New
    0
    [] Roman Skomorokhov stamps articles like bakery cakes. All its variants are not worth a damn. There are really only two options. First: the West gives money to Kiev, and then dirt and blood, until someone else's victory: Donbass or Kiev. And let the Russians kill the Russians as much as possible. Second: the West does not give money to Kiev and a fight will begin between the center and the regions and in the regions themselves. And again, dirt and blood. And again, the Russians kill the Russians. For the West, both options are good, but the second is cheaper: no money is needed. The main thing is that the Russians kill the Russians, and as much as possible
    I agree completely. The Russians will kill the Russians (even if the latter do not consider themselves as such) to the glory of Mamonne and arrogant Saxons.
  21. koshmarik
    koshmarik 28 January 2016 11: 37 New
    +1
    The political fate of Ukraine is likely to be resolved in the most unexpected way. European guarantors can be safely excluded from this process, due to their complete uselessness. What have these "guarantors" done useful since the adoption of the Minsk agreements? NOTHING! Moreover, the Germans and French point-blank do not see the political tricks and inaction of the Kiev authorities. Therefore, we need to actively and assertively support and develop the idea of ​​Biden, read the USA, about decentralization, the implementation of which will automatically solve all problems.
  22. Old Siberian
    Old Siberian 28 January 2016 12: 52 New
    +1
    The result will be only when the arctic fox comes to the Ukrainian junta. I hope that we will not wait long.
  23. Yugan Oleg
    Yugan Oleg 28 January 2016 12: 53 New
    +1
    Quote: domokl
    Quote: Jurkovs
    There are really only two options.

    laughing Are you writing about the constitution of Ukraine? Or about something else .. An article about the constitution, and a comment about what?
    But according to the comment. Gives does not give now is not particularly relevant. the West cannot but give ... the amount of invested funds has already become not a problem, but the defense of Kiev. And everyone understands this. It will ruin the west of Ukraine, so what? who will return the money? So, the EU and the US have no alternatives.

    Money? belay Do you think that they are thinking of getting them back and with profit? Debt, Credit is just a name and they need a result! Russians must kill Russians. That's what they need, and they pay for it. At the start, five yards laid out. (They are our partners)
    1. domokl
      domokl 28 January 2016 16: 01 New
      +2
      Alas, everything is much simpler. Nothing personal just business. Russians are not the goal. The goal is profit. This is the axiom of capitalism.
  24. Dimon-chik-79
    Dimon-chik-79 29 January 2016 12: 43 New
    +1
    Yes, we don’t know a damn thing, all this is fortune-telling on coffee grounds and nothing more! Positive changes will occur only when either the Amerokos weakens or we grow stronger and economically in the first place. And if we can create an economically strong and strong country, then the sanctions will be lifted and the republics will be pulled back and there will be peace on the border of our homeland.