Military Review

Induction and deduction. Unanswered Questions

45
It seems that induction and deduction, like all logical science, is not in the esteem of our statesmen. Induction is a process of rationale based on the transition from private to more general provisions. Deduction is the opposite way of justification, from the general to the particular. As an example, I will cite the forecasting of inflation in Russia over the past year by the main economic and financial departments of Russia.


Induction and deduction. Unanswered Questions


1. Ministry of Economic Development (MED), head Alexei Ulyukayev. At the beginning of December, 2014, the forecast for annual inflation in 2015, is 7,5%. January 31 2015 - already 12%, and in August (25.08.15) the forecast was lowered to 11%. Less than in a month (18.09.15) it is about 13% (Rosstat data - 12,9%).

2. Ministry of Finance, head Anton Siluanov. Inflation in Russia at the end of 2015 will be 11-11,5% (20.06.15). The 18.09.15 forecast was raised to the level of 12,2%, and the Minister of Finance again raised the forecast for 30.12.15: inflation in Russia for the year 2015 - to “13% with a little”.

3. The Central Bank of Russia, the head of Elvira Nabiullina. According to the Central Bank's forecast, inflation for the year 2015 will be 12-14% (13.03.15). But after three months, the regulator lowered the forecast from 12-14% to 10,8% (16.06.15). And in September, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation again worsened the inflation forecast for the year 2015 from 10,8% to 12-13% (11.09.15).

Note that the exact forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development falls on September, the Ministry of Finance - on December 30 (when Rosstat had preliminary estimates, and it was impossible to make a mistake), and the Central Bank - on March 2015. It turns out that each department considers the forecast values ​​for its internal methods and does not pay much attention to colleagues from neighboring ministries.

In recent years, in the open press one can find many similar “accurate” forecasts for the growth (decrease) in real wages of Russians, the growth (decline) of GDP, the rise (decline) of industrial production, capital outflow and other macroeconomic parameters.

For some reason, in most cases, especially over large periods of time, the projections of these serious agencies are noticeably “embellished”, which creates high risks for the development of the economy and in general for the country's security. This situation greatly reduces the confidence of citizens in specific power figures and the results of their work.

Recently, in mid-December 2015, the state was adopted Budget for 2016 yearwhere the inflation rate is fixed 6,4%. But a month later, the Central Bank announced that inflation would be at least 7%. And many financial and economic experts, who believe that the bottom of the recession has not yet been reached, already speak of a two-digit inflation this year.

Based on an analysis of the situation and the conclusions of these “respected” state structures, the legislators and the president of the country make the most important decisions that affect the lives of every Russian. In particular, the federal authorities increasingly began to declare that the bottom of the crisis had been reached and that the economy was turning upwards. October 13 2015 President Putin saidthat the peak of the crisis has been reached, and the situation in the economy is close to stabilization. But, as the last months of 2015 of the year, and now January of this year, have shown, it was premature to draw such conclusions. The budget for 2016 of the year, on behalf of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, will be revised to reduce costs over the coming week and submitted for approval.

Why does this situation repeat for the second year in a row? Does this mean not enough professional execution of budget planning in the last two years? Where is the logic here? Why does the real situation, as a rule, turn out to be worse than the forecasts of the departments, in which the salaries of the employees significantly exceed the national average? Do the leaders of these departments, and the departments themselves, which in their work, instead of objective, including logical, justifying their conclusions, periodically “guess on the grounds” meet the requirements of life? Is it possible, on the basis of their conclusions, to successfully manage financial and economic processes and the development of the country as a whole?

Andrei, the author of the site "Military pensioner, 26.01.16.
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  1. Wheel
    Wheel 28 January 2016 08: 33 New
    10
    Quote: Andrey Nor-Arevyan
    Where is the logic here? Why does the real situation, as a rule, turn out to be worse than the forecasts of departments, the salaries of employees in which significantly exceed the national average? Do the leaders of these departments, and the departments themselves, meet the requirements of life, which in their work, instead of objective, including logical, substantiation of their conclusions, periodically "guess on the coffee grounds"? Is it possible, on the basis of their conclusions, to successfully manage the financial and economic processes and development of the country as a whole?

    Who said that there is no logic in these departments?
    It exists, but this logic is aimed at solving completely different problems.
    All the logic of these ministries is aimed at keeping the banking system, the oil and gas industry afloat, and specifically the interests of several individuals, especially close to the emperor.
    And inflation?
    What is inflation?
    Well, it hits someone, so "they didn't fit into the market" and that's it ...
    1. CHILD
      CHILD 28 January 2016 08: 50 New
      +1
      ... this is clearly a structural error .... swan, cancer and pike)))) ..... there is not enough unifying structure))) .... the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing .. and who's head ..... fools))))
      1. Temples
        Temples 28 January 2016 08: 52 New
        +2
        The author really thinks that there should be predictors in ministries ???
        Provides examples of how wrong predictions are!
        Good for you!
        If you want to make God laugh, tell us about your plans.
        Someone, but real leaders (from housewives to the minister) are engaged in business.
        And lying on the stove, spitting at the ceiling, but guessing the weather of the mind does not need much.
        Just like now, whoever does not scold the government.
        But to go so far as to declare that the government did not correctly predict the rates and prices! - this is absolutely nonsense.
        Laziness mother was born before us.
        Whatever business he did, you see a lot would come out.
        And it is time for the government to tie the game of predicting the future and get down to business.
      2. mihasik
        mihasik 28 January 2016 16: 43 New
        0
        Quote: KIND
        . swan, crayfish and pike)))). the right hand, does not know what the left hand is doing .. and who's head is ... fooling))))

        Cart))))
      3. KVS
        KVS 28 January 2016 23: 49 New
        +1
        drive this trinity with a filthy broom !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    2. Diana Ilyina
      Diana Ilyina 28 January 2016 08: 50 New
      +7
      It would not be bad for the author to know that all forecasts in the modern changing world are just fortune-telling on the coffee grounds! If our economy was not tied to the world market, but was independent, as under the USSR, then it would make sense to talk about forecasts! And so, which economist at the beginning of 2015 could predict with 100% certainty the devaluation of the yuan or the fall in oil prices below $ 30 per barrel, then no one! So the article is generally about nothing!
      1. guzik007
        guzik007 28 January 2016 09: 01 New
        +2
        It would not be bad for the author to know that all forecasts in the modern changing world,
        -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------
        Well, if you follow your logic, planning the annual budget is a disastrous and unnecessary action in advance. It seems to me that the government is obliged to predict inflation risks with a greater tolerance, while budgeting the "fat layer" in reserve. But if inflation turns out to be less, calmly spend it on social spending.
        1. Diana Ilyina
          Diana Ilyina 28 January 2016 09: 28 New
          +7
          Quote: guzik007
          Well, if you follow your logic, then planning the annual budget is a failure and unnecessary action in advance.


          Don't confuse the difference between planning and forecasting! As an economist, I am telling you with experience of work at a large aluminum plant! Since 2014, my planned indicators differ greatly from the actual ones! You will say that I am a bad economist, but perhaps my director knows better! Not a single analyst can predict the prices of aluminum on the London Stock Exchange even for a month, let alone plans for a year!
          1. Oldwiser
            Oldwiser 28 January 2016 09: 46 New
            0
            World bigwigs with prices and quotes are playing - they have such a hold'em a la Texas - who will cheat whom. And it is necessary to switch to calculations from rubles - we estimate the inflation rate in rubles and, accordingly, we extrapolate the cost price and the ruble price of the product at the end of the planning period; we estimate the dollar rate and get the forecast price of the product in foreign currency. For variability, we impose a spread fork on the obtained value - plus or minus - if everything is very bad, or vice versa - very good. That's the whole prognostics.
            1. Diana Ilyina
              Diana Ilyina 28 January 2016 10: 08 New
              +7
              Quote: OldWiser
              World bigwigs with prices and quotes are playing - they have such a hold'em a la Texas - who will cheat whom. And it is necessary to switch to calculations from rubles - we estimate the inflation rate in rubles and, accordingly, we extrapolate the cost price and the ruble price of the product at the end of the planning period; we estimate the dollar rate and get the forecast price of the product in foreign currency. For variability, we impose a spread fork on the obtained value - plus or minus - if everything is very bad, or vice versa - very good. That's the whole prognostics.


              Oh, how simple you are! Why don't you work in our government ?!
              "We estimate the dollar rate" - I'm already funny ...! lol
              "plus or minus - if everything is very bad, or vice versa - very good" - if I told my management like this at least once, then the very next day I would be looking for a new job! fool
          2. guzik007
            guzik007 28 January 2016 10: 51 New
            0
            Don't confuse the difference between planning and forecasting!
            ---------------------------------------------------------------
            Oops! Hats off: =) But, you see, there is a rational grain in my proposal?
          3. unsinkable
            unsinkable 28 January 2016 15: 38 New
            0
            Quote: Diana Ilyina
            You will say that I am a bad economist, but perhaps my director knows better!

            I believe you and even know that in the current situation it is thankless to make forecasts, especially long-term ones. But ... even a bad director thinks that he knows better. The plant is large, aluminum. The ruble is cheap, wooden. love hi
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 28 January 2016 13: 46 New
        +2
        Author, show off your intellect and logic and announce your forecast for the oil market at 2016-2017, and we will see how induction and deduction will help you in this.
    3. oldseaman1957
      oldseaman1957 28 January 2016 08: 50 New
      +1
      Quote: Wheel
      Who said that there is no logic in these departments?
      - This is not logic, this is some kind of masochism, especially perverted. And also a completely deliberate betrayal of Russia's interests.
      1. Wheel
        Wheel 28 January 2016 10: 06 New
        +1
        Quote: oldseaman1957
        - This is not logic, this is some kind of masochism, especially perverted. And also a completely deliberate betrayal of Russia's interests.

        Masochism?
        Are you confusing anything?
        It seems to me that the policy of these three structures is a sadism bursting with health.
        Sadism in relation to Russia in general, and to the people in particular.
    4. Altona
      Altona 28 January 2016 12: 34 New
      +1
      Quote: Wheel
      And inflation?
      What is inflation?
      Well, it hits someone, so "they didn't fit into the market" and that's it ...

      -------------------------
      All costs are borne by society, the government decided so back in 1992, from the time of shock without therapy ..
  2. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 28 January 2016 08: 35 New
    +1
    These are not conclusions, but spells behind which there is nothing!
    Spell Based Management.
    The spells follow after the "fortune-telling on the coffee grounds".
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt 28 January 2016 08: 38 New
      +1
      Quote: Reptiloid
      Spells follow after "fortune-telling on coffee grounds"
      Rather, they are guessing on the "thick of oil". Everyone is guessing --- from the president to the janitor of Uncle Vasya.
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 28 January 2016 09: 42 New
        +2
        But I propose that the Ministry of Economic Development be merged into one ministry with the Hydrometeorological Center - all the same, the forecasts do not agree in both cases, so: that they should lie separately, even if they lie together, from one person, so to speak. Or transfer the authority of the Ministry of Economic Development to the Hydrometeorological Center - the result will be the same. yes
  3. andj61
    andj61 28 January 2016 08: 40 New
    0
    Do the heads of these departments, and the departments themselves, which in their work instead of an objective, including logical, substantiation of their conclusions, meet the requirements of life, periodically "Reading coffee grounds"?

    I completely disagree! am They "guess on the coffee grounds" not periodically, but constantly. Moreover, with a small opportunistic benefit for themselves, loved ones. repeat It is necessary to show the success of its leadership of the department - it gives a positive forecast, it is necessary to show that the "objective" difficulties are too great - it gives a negative forecast. lol And this is done all the time, they got used to it a long time ago. It's just that in a crisis era, this position is especially noticeable. yes
  4. Masya masya
    Masya masya 28 January 2016 08: 44 New
    +3
    Will it rain or not?
    Cows think ...
    There will be roofing felts, no,
    Is there a new barn for us?
  5. hartlend
    hartlend 28 January 2016 08: 45 New
    +2
    The economic block in the government initially works in the interests of another state. And does a good job. And with induction and deduction everything is in order there. The author is mistaken.
    1. 16112014nk
      16112014nk 28 January 2016 17: 30 New
      0
      In the departments of Siluanov and Ulyukayev, 20 assistants are still working - US citizens. It is possible that the CIA officers. US citizens, upon reaching the age of majority, receive a passport and vow to protect and defend around the world only the interests of their country and no one else. Where is the FSB looking? I don’t know how in the department of Naebulina, but the likelihood of the same situation is high.
  6. mpzss
    mpzss 28 January 2016 08: 46 New
    +1
    here you scold that they can’t calculate inflation in the country, and it’s necessary to calculate and not make mistakes either at the beginning of the year, or even better at the end of the previous one. Did I understand you correctly?
    I am far from the economy, but I also understand that a forecast similar to this is made on the basis of a MASS of indicators both within the country and outside it (external factors). Now let's think about what factors can be calculated and which cannot.
    Internal factors (within the country): yes, there is some clarity, but only where there is no attachment to the buck (and it is almost everywhere) and you can roughly calculate inflation.
    External factors: well, this is where fortune-telling on the coffee grounds begins! various wars that occur at ANY time of the year, surges in oil prices, various "color" revolutions, etc., you can go on for a VERY long time!
    Well, who will give an accurate inflation forecast? Are you an author ready?
    If yes, then write! And if "no", then there was nothing to write an article!
    1. Diana Ilyina
      Diana Ilyina 28 January 2016 08: 55 New
      +7
      Quote: mpzss
      And if "no", then there was nothing to write an article!


      Absolutely true, and I mean the same! What predictions, when no one knows what other "smart" thought can visit the "brightest" head of the head of the most "exclusive" nation on Earth!
    2. your1970
      your1970 28 January 2016 11: 11 New
      0
      I support, plan this one thing and predict who can assume for example a meteorite that will fall in Washington lol and the consequences, or the rebellion of the Saudis, or many terrorist attacks in Europe ... And all this can affect in an unknown way the economy of both ours and the world ...
  7. Indifferent
    Indifferent 28 January 2016 08: 53 New
    +3
    The fact that our economic departments are incompetent (this is at best), and at worst, they simply sabotage their activities is not a secret even for the laziest.
    But the Guarantor of the Constitution, under which the Constitution does not guarantee everyone the right to health protection, education and some other benefits, is worried, of course, about which he repeatedly speaks, but nothing more. Otherwise, he would have dispersed the economic bloc of his government long ago.
    They can’t curb corruption, but simple barbaric speculation with the withdrawal of money abroad. Everywhere they are shouting that they are "leaving" the dollar and right there and then for our pennies (the ruble fell against the dollar during this time by more than half) they bought Treasuries worth 8 billion dollars and placed them in the USA.
    Was it not possible to give this money for the development of small business at the same 4% and in rubles ???
    I already try to read less economic news. Otherwise, blood pressure jumps, but there is no sense. It only gets worse every day, and I am sure that the economy will continue to deteriorate until this group of "Gaidarites" is kicked out of the helm.
    1. guzik007
      guzik007 28 January 2016 09: 04 New
      +1
      I already try to read less economic news. Otherwise, blood pressure jumps
      ------------------------
      Well, what kind of IMPACT are you after that? Even the avatar has a lot of emotions. : =)
    2. Volzhanin
      Volzhanin 28 January 2016 09: 11 New
      +4
      The guarantor has already said about this:
      1. Do not change horses at the crossing!
      2. Where can I find other trained and intelligent people?
      3. Anyway, he is satisfied with their work!

      After that, I realized that we are all a shand. Get out as best you can and every man for himself.
      So far, NOBODY has OFFERED any other development of events!
      1. Oldwiser
        Oldwiser 28 January 2016 09: 53 New
        +3
        Because the alternative to oligarchic comprador capitalism is the return of enterprises to state ownership, the elimination of large owners "as a class" and the re-creation of the planning and distribution mechanism for managing the economy and social sphere.
        Is Guarantor ready for this? The answer is obvious, despite recent statements in terms of "sympathy for the ideas of communism."
  8. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 28 January 2016 08: 55 New
    +1
    The problem is that our ugly monster, called the Russian economy, is extremely unstable. And all the forecasts of our economists are futile. It is impossible to calculate our economy when its indicators are swept away by any political fart.
  9. taram taramych
    taram taramych 28 January 2016 08: 56 New
    +1
    Not a single "genius", from the financial sector, neither former nor active, has died of hunger and cold. But those about whom they should be worried do so with enviable consistency. Stubborn!
  10. drop
    drop 28 January 2016 08: 57 New
    +7
    In Russia, there is the Institute for Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences. It is headed by the famous academician Ivanter V.V. There is also a CEMI at the RAS (I write in abbreviation), which is also headed by an academician. There are methodologies and instructions on how to assess the development of industry and the economy by industry and the country as a whole. Note that there are no specialists in these ministries and in the Central Bank from the RAS. They are afraid of them. Why did we always use these techniques (our industry research institutes) when we justified the effectiveness of investments before the Customer and the State Planning Commission. At my enterprises, the State Institution of the Ministry of Radioprom of the USSR, the GDP growth rate was not lower than 20%, the shift factor of the 2,64 equipment (for HAP and CNC machines). What has changed in the management of the industry. I had a lot to get acquainted with the organization of work similar to my enterprises in France, England, USA. Adopted the main thing. And then they destroyed everything. You can’t work like that, how this trinity works. I have the honor.
  11. Aleksander
    Aleksander 28 January 2016 09: 02 New
    +2
    On October 13 on October 2015, President Putin announced that the peak of the crisis had been reached and that the situation in the economy was close to stabilization.

    He spoke about the growth of the economy that had already taken place and at a press conference in December 2015, showered with numbers, but was completely unconvincing. When he approved the actions of the government, it became generally unclear how to get out of the crisis. The impotence of the government is obvious, why not appoint at least others?
    1. Thunderbolt
      Thunderbolt 28 January 2016 09: 14 New
      +2
      Quote: Aleksander
      why not appoint at least others?
      So they are not just officials, they are sitting on streams and representatives of large financial groups of which there are several in our country (simply oligarchs). You cannot take and put a person off the street like this. Especially when the flow of money into the treasury decreases and the competition between the bigwigs increases There is relative parity between the clans, and a stranger can do this ...
  12. vadgen
    vadgen 28 January 2016 09: 22 New
    -4
    It has recently become fashionable to scold the government. But this criticism, for the most part, does not carry a constructive beginning. The author of the article follows the same path. It is easiest to say that the government did not guess inflation, therefore it is bad and "does not meet the requirements of life", it is much more difficult to analyze the situation and propose any actions that need to be taken urgently. , but no, it is better to just be silent.
  13. askort154
    askort154 28 January 2016 09: 24 New
    +2
    I was amused by Medvedev's statement at the end of December. The indexation of pensions in 2016 will be 4% (inflation is 13%), but in half a year we'll see if we can add more. That is, the head of government does not know that
    will be with the country's economy, only in half a year. That is, they do not program the country's economic prospects, but stupidly guess how oil prices will behave, and anxiously await its increase.
    When he was president, he talked a lot about "modernization". Perhaps I can't see her ?!
  14. A1L9E4K9S
    A1L9E4K9S 28 January 2016 09: 26 New
    +7
    Quote: Volzhanin
    1. Do not change horses at the crossing!


    The guarantor had to ask a question: Do donkeys change or not.
  15. Neophyte
    Neophyte 28 January 2016 09: 28 New
    +3
    The mediocrity and amateurs in the government are known! What next? We don’t give up and do not change our own, as the President says! So you can bend, trying to curb inflation!
  16. Riv
    Riv 28 January 2016 09: 29 New
    +1
    Everything is correct. The problem of our ministers: they do not know how to keep their mouths shut. And I have a feeling that they were specially chosen so. Let, they say, chatter. There is no big harm from this, and when we shoot, we will just grab the tongue. And everyone is happy. The people are glad, the president's rating is breaking through the roof.
    For example, Shoigu behaves in a completely different way. Has anyone heard that he blurted something out of business somewhere? This has never happened.
  17. Uncle lee
    Uncle lee 28 January 2016 09: 37 New
    +7
    Quote: Thunderbolt
    and a stranger can do this ...
    So this CLUB of the chosen ones is spinning and hanging out
  18. savage1976
    savage1976 28 January 2016 10: 27 New
    0
    Quote: guzik007
    It would not be bad for the author to know that all forecasts in the modern changing world,
    -------------------------------------------------- -----------------------------
    Well, if you follow your logic, planning the annual budget is a disastrous and unnecessary action in advance. It seems to me that the government is obliged to predict inflation risks with a greater tolerance, while budgeting the "fat layer" in reserve. But if inflation turns out to be less, calmly spend it on social spending.


    Planning is what they do. Tell me with an accuracy of 10 rubles how much money will you spend in February? You can't, a lot of things can influence yes? So this is only in relation to 1 person, and in relation to the country and the world, forecasts are even more complicated. In general, they are more or less accurate.
  19. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 28 January 2016 10: 47 New
    +1
    I understood a little, but just in case I put the article a plus :)
  20. triglav
    triglav 28 January 2016 12: 18 New
    0
    I constantly say that the financial and economic block of the Government must be dispersed. Are there really no talented people left in our country? Of course, when such a Prime Minister, then the Government is no better. Two pillars: Lavrov and Shoigu. Professionals work in their departments. And in the financial and economic block? It looks like the President should start looking for professionals. Yes, so that they are also happy with Russia ...
  21. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 28 January 2016 13: 28 New
    0
    I’m looking at the oil price and fearing about the price of gas when oil starts to grow ...
  22. Whowhy
    Whowhy 28 January 2016 15: 08 New
    +1
    It's all about the degradation of power in Russia at all levels.
    My friend works in the regional government. So he told terribly funny things about how some decisions are made:
    A certain paper comes from Moscow demanding to present a well-grounded opinion on a specific issue concerning our region. She is "lowered" by the head of the sector. The head of the sector sees that this issue requires scientific study and, in good faith, this study should be ordered by a scientific or design institute. At the same time, he understands that the regional government's budget does not provide for such expenses (not very feeble, we note), and now no one works for free. Just in case, he calls the appropriate institute to find out whether they will take it free of charge (for future preferences). They say "no" - there is a lot of work and a lot of responsibility ...
    The head of the sector "slips" the paper to the head of the department (closest to the topic). The head of the department perfectly understands all the "layouts", but he has no free people, except for the "girl" whom he recently had to take to work on a call, immediately after graduating from her institute. Therefore, he assigns this question to the "girl" (for very different reasons ...).
    The girl in this matter absolutely "does not fumble" and climbs into the Internet ... Everything that she dug up on the Internet, she more or less coherently sets out on paper and gives to the head of the department.
    The head of the department processes all this from the point of view of common sense and gives it to the head of the sector.
    The head of the sector adds several points there, based on political considerations, and sends him to Moscow ...
    After a while from Moscow comes "paper" on this issue already "For execution". But this paper does not even contain traces of the "paper" that was sent to Moscow. Apparently, in Moscow, also perfectly understanding all the "layouts", this question was left "at the mercy" of their "girl", and she, then, had a falling out with the "boy", then something else ...
    That's how we live. good
  23. olimpiada15
    olimpiada15 28 January 2016 19: 25 New
    +1
    "Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation"
    In the meaning of the name, this organization should be engaged in the development of the economy of our country, for this they receive a salary.
    What are they doing?
    It would be more correct to call them "the Ministry of predictions and forecasts of the influence of the world economy on the state of the financial system of the Russian Federation," because they are not involved in the development of the country's economy.
    And then conclude:
    1) either change the name to the meaning of their activities,
    2) either leave the name of the ministry and accept the people who will deal with the creation and development of the Russian economy.
    I emphasize that every word is important: namely, "the development of the Russian economy"
    Moreover, it is necessary to solve the question, but does the country need a forecast ministry?
    1. Fat
      Fat 28 January 2016 20: 05 New
      +1
      The Ministry of Regional Development of the Russian Federation (the Ministry of Regional Development of Russia) was abolished in order to optimize ... From the "optimization" the "Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation", apparently, will not cause a catastrophe either. But the confusion and far-fetched figures will clearly decrease
  24. Whowhy
    Whowhy 29 January 2016 17: 01 New
    0
    A funny little thing: "Ministry". lol