Military Review

The Third World War: Where does the Gavrila Principle live?

74
Reflections on past events sometimes make it possible, on the other hand, to look at today's events and even try to look into the future. Some foreboding, if I may. The feeling of being about to flare up in full. Why? Because the prerequisites today, if we draw analogies with 1 and 2 world wars, is enough.




How did the First World War begin? Of course, not with the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand. It was a reason, nothing more. From the murder of Ferdinand to the beginning of the war only one month passed. This, you see, is not enough to prepare a global slaughterhouse. We conclude that everyone was ready by that moment. But Ferdinand ... If this hadn't happened, there would have been something else.

The main thing, we emphasize, was a hotbed of instability, which sin would not take advantage of. Austria-Hungary at that time really cracked at the seams because of its national and ethnic contradictions. And the second center, albeit at some distance from Europe, but in the Middle East. This is a collapsing Ottoman Empire. There, things were even a little more neglected than in Austria-Hungary. But control over the straits and the Middle Eastern territories were a more tasty morsel than Austria-Hungary, where the devil could break his head in national and territorial issues.

And there are two main targets: this is Germany, whose imperial ambitions have really begun to strain everyone by that moment, and Russia, whose economic growth also caused a burning in certain places among the "partners."

What was the result? As a result, the 4 empires ceased to exist immediately: the Russian, German, Ottoman and Austro-Hungarian. A whole bunch of independent states appeared on the map, such as Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Estonia, Finland.

And the winners staged a luxurious carve out of what used to be called empires. Most of all, of course, the British succeeded. Although the French are not far behind the eternal rivals in the “spin” part. Virtually the entire Middle East has come under the control of these two countries.

Russia was in a strange position, because it lost to losers. For this, of course, a special thank you to the other world to the Bolshevik comrades, but nothing can be done. That was, that was.

And the United States appeared on the international arena.

Further, we note, many countries-participants of the PRC experienced the most severe economic crisis. Work for military needs was not in vain, and the acquired territory had to be mastered. And the losers - to compensate. And the further the crisis tyrannized the world, the stronger became the reality of the second war.

Who was more interested?

Germany, which took away Alsace, Lorraine, North Schleswig and all foreign colonies, with the coming of the Nazis to power was ready to fight for the return of "blood." Japan, as a "winner" country, received virtually nothing, except for absolutely worthless former German Karolinsky, Mariana and Marshall Islands. And the United States, where the Great Depression raged and really needed to do something.

And what about England and France? And they also had a hefty headache. In addition to the revanchist-minded Hitler, there was also Stalin. Who by the middle of 30-s completely successfully strangled "old Bolsheviks", Lenin's comrades-in-arms, those who so successfully gave Russian lands in exchange for peace, organized industrialization in the USSR and also began to glance in the direction of "Russia that we lost." Pretty successful, by the way.

The main goal of the Second World War was, of course, not the fight against fascism. It was necessary to "slow down" obviously rushed in the wrong direction, where England, France and the USA would like Germany and the USSR. The rest is as it will.

As a result, the United States remained in the arena as a superpower. All the others that were losers, that the winners licked for a long time the wounds caused by the war.

What do we have today?

We have quite a few similarities with the events of the 20 century. Unfortunately. Let's go point by point.

Is there an empire today that is experiencing the same problems as the Austro-Hungary or the Ottoman Empire? Definitely there. This is the European Union. The fact that he is bursting at the seams is both economically and politically a fact. Although we will return to the Ottomans.

Speaking of economics, it is worth noting that today there is such an education as G20. Which, according to the intentions of the founders, should rule the world today. It turns out, yes, because the G20 today is 85% of world GDP and 75% of world trade. The rest - live as you want. And while they live.

But if you look at what happened in the world after 1990 of the year, then it is quite possible to trace such a moment that all countries that could get close to the "twenty" in terms of development and influence received some kind of cataclysm, or throwing them far back, or really collapsed state. There is no need to go far for examples.

Yugoslavia.
Libya.
Iraq.
Iran (the case of Iran is somewhat beyond the scope, for somehow they did without bombing).
Ukraine.
Syria.

Yes, Ukraine is on the list for a reason, indeed, there was potential, there were opportunities, but everything was sacrificed for the anti-Russian confrontation. However, the scenario is the same, since the soil allowed to grow seeds thrown into it, then why bomb? Themselves have done well.

However, the last line is the most interesting. If Syria had been “squeezed out” according to the Libyan scenario and planted a puppet acceptable to the West, then who would be in the region an unambiguous hegemon?

That's right, Turkey.

A member of the "club of twenty" and NATO concurrently. And throughout the Middle East there would be silence and grace up to the friendly "partners" of Pakistan. The rest of the Middle Eastern players would be busy with their direct business - the survival of the post-war crisis.

However, it did not work out, and here we come close to the reasons.

Will it be logical to unleash another world-wide disgrace, if its goal is to stop Russia that is clearly "flying off the rail"? And the fact that Russia today is clearly not moving along the path that was prepared for it at the end of the last century, is doubtful only among the followers of Nemtsov. It is still alive, of course, unlike the gurus of the liberal movement.

There is no definitive answer yet, but if in our opinion, yes, it is logical. No wonder there were so many attempts to draw Russia into the rehearsal.

By rehearsal, we mean local conflicts that would not provoke a global conflict, but served to “sway” Russia. Well, as the events of recent years have shown, they became the basis for sanctions.

Transnistria, Karabakh, Ukraine, Central Asia. Now - Syria. What may follow next?

Further, in our opinion, there are three regions whose status can be described as "explosive."

1. North Africa.

Something is constantly happening there, but as the Libyan events have shown, Russia has no interests there, and is not expected.

2. North Korea.

A country practicing more than a kind of neighborhood policy. It may well claim to be the next “arsonist,” especially considering its relations with Japan and South Korea. And, accordingly, from the USA.

Our eyes are rarely turned to the east, the European theater is more familiar, and now here is the Middle East. But do not discount what is happening there. And there are not quite nice things going on there, even if we discard China's constant “flops” with its neighbors on the topic of control over the islands.

The resulting alliances, China + North Korea against the United States + Japan + South Korea, will be able, sooner or later, to undermine the relative calm in the region. More precisely, if anyone can, it is North Korea. Especially given the presence of her atomic weapons (according to 17 +/– 2 charge) and means of its delivery to Japan.

And all this is not too far from our borders.

We add here the revanchist sentiments in the Japanese government and the increasing power of the Japanese self-defense forces. The Japanese Navy today is quite comparable, and in some respects it is significantly superior to the Pacific Fleet, which has just begun to emerge from a protracted crisis.

Those who object to us that there are two “Boreas” on the Pacific Fleet, which are able to make Japan a cataclysm and simply wash it off with a tidal wave, will be right. But this is still a weapon of deterrence, and the use of Boreev will be the beginning of a global nightmare.

But the war with the use of nuclear weapons, we still do not consider. Until.

3. Near East.

The most profitable area. Why we do not consider Europe? Yes, simply because both Europeans and Americans today prefer to solve their problems away from their borders. Europe seems to have already fought, and the States on their territory and did not really fight, except for the Civil War, but this is quite a matter of bygone days.

Europeans want to live the same way. Yes, not everyone in Europe realized that the war had actually come to them, being carried by the residents of those countries who also want a beautiful and full life. Of those who account for the remaining 15% of global GDP.

But the Middle East seems to us a more suitable arena. If only because Russia is already there. So far, only with the VKS grouping, but what will happen next is difficult to predict. Again, because of Turkey.

Yes, our "partners" put on that player, when viewed from the perspective of a smart person. It was not their fault that Erdogan turned out to be a slightly not quite suitable executor of the will of the West, and in fact threw up the whole game. However, his imperial ambitions for the creation of a pro-Turkish territory on Syrian soil can go far ahead. As well as the return, or rather, the pressing of the Iraqi lands, which were previously part of the Ottoman Empire.

The alignment is simple: today, Turkey is actually on the brink of a civil war between the Turks and the Kurds. Although it is possible that the parties have already crossed this line.

Turks are starting active actions against the Kurds. Active is like in 2014 in Ukraine. Iran definitely stands up for the Kurds. Erdogan calls for help from NATO, especially if he is not able to cope. NATO stands up for Turkey, Iran will unambiguously call for help either Russia, or the CSTO, which it is actively trying to join. It started ...

And the United States and Europe remain somewhat apart from the theater, rubbing their hands and anticipating dividends.

Indeed, the Middle East is the most convenient place. Unlike the PMR, Ukraine, Afghanistan, and places of other similar conflicts, it is accessible by water. So, it is possible to transfer troops and equipment by the forces of the fleets. And support ships. In short, as in the war with Iraq. Or in situations in Libya and Yugoslavia. For, as practice has shown, through the air, of course, you can throw a lot of things, but not in such volumes.

This may also include the statements of some countries (such as the United States and Germany) about the transfer to Syria of their contingents "to fight terrorism". Although, we note, nobody asked them about it. But - such is politics. Indeed, won't the same Germans fight the poor peaceful refugees in Hamburg and Cologne? All that could have been fucked from these refugees had already been raped when they were transferred to Germany. And now the refugees are going to fuck their own (or not quite their own) in Germany itself. But this is another история.

Terrorism will only be fought in the Middle East. Not only are there really terrorists there, there are still resources there. And the resources, I'm sorry, they are more important than any struggle for democracy against anyone. Here, against anyone for the resources to fight and will be the Americans and their European counterparts.

Let's summarize some of the above. What is happening today in Syria and its surroundings, in our opinion, is another rehearsal. Which, however, may be followed by more serious events. And, watching the development of the global crisis, we are becoming increasingly confident that this is only the beginning. The beginning of processes that will not end soon (with the victory of Assad, for example) and which, moreover, can begin to absorb an increasing number of countries interested in overcoming the crisis at the expense of others.

Returning to the header. Where the New Gavrila Principle lives, we do not know for sure. In Ankara, Damascus, Baghdad or Riyadh. But the fact that there, in the Middle East, is unique. Today it is already difficult to say who pushed on the act of that Principle, but for some reason there is no doubt who will rule today.
Author:
74 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. apro
    apro 26 January 2016 06: 06
    25
    Gavrila lives in a white house, but somehow turned black.
    1. Finches
      Finches 26 January 2016 06: 17
      18
      For all the wars on planet Earth, one way or another, the Anglo-Saxons loom! Managing for centuries pitting people and countries getting good dividends from it! Absolutely unprincipled nation ... An Englishwoman cannot but crap - this is her essence laid down from the beginning of the appearance of an ethnic group!
      1. Glot
        Glot 26 January 2016 11: 27
        +6
        For all the wars on planet Earth, one way or another, the Anglo-Saxons loom!


        Most likely, banal money is behind everything. Money and resources, which in general is also money. Thirst for profit and no more.
        And who is there "spins the flywheel of war" does not matter, it is Angles or who else. It's just that at this stage of human development, the Angles (Amers) have accumulated most of the funds in their hands. So they rule.
        1. Rezident007
          Rezident007 26 January 2016 13: 02
          0
          Well, we have an amateur fan of our people ... Especially since the beginning of 2014 ...
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. Izotovp
          Izotovp 27 January 2016 01: 14
          0
          The Vatican is behind all this and we became barbarians and Mordor when we refused to bend under the authority of the Roman Catholic Church.
      2. Chtononibrator
        Chtononibrator 26 January 2016 12: 23
        -1
        For the sake of justice, many peoples, as they say, "I'm glad to be deceived myself," instead of striving for development.
    2. 222222
      222222 26 January 2016 14: 48
      -5
      ..see the history and modern analogies ..

      1. "" "Germany attacked Poland on September 1939, XNUMX. This day is considered the day of the beginning of World War II. Neither Britain nor France came to the aid of the Poles.
      The USSR could not allow the further advance of German troops. On September 1939, XNUMX, the government of the USSR handed the Polish ambassador the following note: “The Polish government has broken up and shows no signs of life. This means that the Polish state and its government virtually ceased to exist ... Left to its own devices and left without leadership, Poland turned into a convenient field for any accidents and surprises that could create a threat to the USSR ... In view of this situation, the Soviet government ordered the Chief the command of the Red Army to give the order to cross the border and take under their protection the life and property of the population of Western Ukraine and Western Belarus. "

      After the note was handed over to the Polish ambassador on the same day, September 17, 1939, the Soviet forces were Ukrainian forces (under the command of the 1st rank commander S.K. Timoshenko) and Belorussian (under the command of the 2nd rank commander M.P. Kovalev) fronts entered the eastern regions of Poland.
      http://tvzvezda.ru/news/forces/content/201601260816-hvtp.htm
      1.2 .... "March-May 2014 ..." Crimean Spring "... ???

      2. The Soviet-Finnish war of 1939-1940 during the period from November 30, 1939 to March 12, 1940.

      2.2 The military operation of Russia in Syria has been conducted by the Aerospace Forces of the Russian Federation since September 30, 2015 wink
      1. Glot
        Glot 26 January 2016 15: 04
        +6
        After the note was handed over to the Polish ambassador on the same day, September 17, 1939, the Soviet forces were Ukrainian forces (under the command of the 1st rank commander S.K. Timoshenko) and Belorussian (under the command of the 2nd rank commander M.P. Kovalev) fronts entered the eastern regions of Poland.


        Hmm ... Yes, it seems, in 1939 there were no Ukrainian or Belarusian fronts ... smile
        1. 222222
          222222 26 January 2016 17: 18
          0
          Glot (1) SU Today, 15:04 ↑

          On September 11, 1939, the Belarusian and Kiev special military districts received orders to deploy field districts in the Belorussian (commander — 2nd-level commander M.P. Kovalev) and Ukrainian (1st-level commander S.K. Timoshenko) fronts.
          1. Glot
            Glot 26 January 2016 18: 55
            +2
            On September 11, 1939, the Belarusian and Kiev special military districts received orders to deploy field districts in the Belorussian (commander — 2nd-level commander M.P. Kovalev) and Ukrainian (1st-level commander S.K. Timoshenko) fronts.


            Where such infa?
            These were the counties. They became fronts only on June 22, 1941. And then, not the Belarusian but the Western Front, and not the Ukrainian but the Southwest. It was later, in 1943, the Belarusian Front appeared, then it was reorganized again, and even later, already in 1944, the 1,2 and 3 Belorussian fronts began to appear. Just like all four Ukrainian fronts appeared only in 1943, by renaming the Voronezh, Steppe, Southwestern and Southern fronts. Plus, they were reformed, merged, and so on ..
            And at the time of September 11, 1939 we had districts, and no fronts.
            1. Pissarro
              Pissarro 26 January 2016 20: 50
              +1
              The front in the Russian military tradition is formed from the military district for strategic operations or the defense of vital territories. The fronts appeared in the Russian-Turkish war of 1877-1878 and have not disappeared since then. If necessary, the district became a front to attack or defend, and vice versa , in the case of solving the tasks, it again became a district. Fronts were in the first world and civilian, for the liberation of western Ukraine and Belarus the okrugs became fronts, the troops in the Far East turned into a Far Eastern front for two months during the battles at Hassan, then again from 1940 to 1945. The southern front was created from June 20 to July 9, 1940 to liberate Bessarabia and Bukovina from the Romanians, the Leningrad military district turned into the north-western front during the Finnish war. So the front did not appear in the Great Patriotic War, it used to be like a mechanism
              If the task is not strategic, but local, not a front is formed, but a grouping. As in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Crimea, Syria. After the task is completed, the grouping is disbanded
              something like
              1. 222222
                222222 26 January 2016 21: 07
                +1
                "" "The Belorussian Front was first deployed on the territory of the Belorussian Special Military District (BOVO) in September 1939. The reason was the German attack on Poland on September 1, 1939.
                On September 11, the Belarusian and Kiev special military districts received an order to deploy field districts. The Belarusian front was thus opened. Mobilization of reservists announced
                By the start of hostilities, the size of the front was 200,8 thousand people.
                On September 17, 1939, at 5 hours and 40 minutes, the troops of the Belarusian Front crossed the Soviet-Polish border and within six days, almost without meeting resistance from the Polish army, occupied the territories

                After completing the assigned tasks on November 14, 1939, the Belorussian Front was again transformed into the Belorussian Special Military District. ""
          2. Zefr
            Zefr 26 January 2016 22: 03
            0
            MMM ... And where is the cycle here?
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. APASUS
        APASUS 26 January 2016 17: 00
        +3
        Quote: 222222
        look at history and modern analogies ... 1. "" "Germany attacked Poland on September 1939, XNUMX. This day is considered the day of the beginning of World War II. Neither England nor France came to the aid of the Poles.

        It's strange how you look at the beginning of the war!
        The Czechoslovak section does not tell you anything and Poland took an active part there. Now the Poles are making a sacrifice of themselves, but in essence their participation and guilt at the beginning of the World War is no less than Germany
        1. 222222
          222222 26 January 2016 17: 21
          0
          APASUS (3) RU Today, 17:00 ↑
          Strange how you look at the beginning of the war! "
          ..I don’t look like that. I just gave separate events trying to see the cyclical manifestation of events in history ..
          ..a war begins a war .. with knives .. hi
          1. APASUS
            APASUS 26 January 2016 20: 40
            +1
            Quote: 222222
            I don’t look like that. I just gave separate events trying to see the cyclical manifestation of events in history ..

            You just chose the facts that are convenient for you and are trying to build a recurrence.
            1. 222222
              222222 26 January 2016 21: 14
              +1
              APASUS (3) RU Today, 20:40 ↑
              You just chose the facts that are convenient for you and try to build a cyclical nature "
              ..Ha. You forgot the reason for the 1st and 2nd world wars .. and it is one and the same .. and the third one can be for the same reason. But in completely different conditions for using weapons. = Now nobody can sit behind the hill! !
              1. the villain
                the villain 26 January 2016 23: 54
                +1
                Quote: 222222
                over the hill now no one can sit out! !

                Behind the puddle, dear, now no one can sit out of the puddle hi
              2. APASUS
                APASUS 27 January 2016 10: 43
                +2
                Quote: 222222
                You forgot the reason for the 1st and 2nd world wars .. and it is one and the same .. and the third one can be for the same reason. But in completely different conditions for using weapons. = Now nobody can sit behind the hill! !

                The reasons for the emergence almost everywhere are the same - a clash of interests and an expansion of influence. Only in previous wars there were well-developed industrial countries that did not have enough space and they tried to conquer it.
                And now the world is on the verge of a crisis, global, and it is caused by the attempt of some countries not to pay debts and get out of the future conflict. Now there is no power in the world that dominated economically and politically. Rather, there is the strength of an attempt to escape from debts.
                Since we live in a closed system, war affects everyone at all, and a nuclear conflict can put an end to our civilization. Here I completely agree with you.
        2. fennekRUS
          fennekRUS 26 January 2016 19: 17
          +2
          Quote: APASUS
          Now the Poles are making a sacrifice of themselves, but in essence their participation and guilt at the beginning of the World War is no less than Germany

          Hyena of Europe (c) However, now the Balts are stubbornly trying to play the role of Poles, with their territorial claims.
  2. venaya
    venaya 26 January 2016 06: 10
    +3
    Where the new Gabriel Principle lives, we do not know for sure. ... But the fact that there, in the Middle East is unequivocal

    In the north, people are now quite well-fed, they cannot be dragged into any war with an orkan, so attempts to establish a world zaroshka will be made by those interested in it in the south, this is transparent.
  3. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 26 January 2016 06: 10
    +8
    Who cares where he lives? The main thing is those who find him.
  4. Mavrikiy
    Mavrikiy 26 January 2016 06: 21
    +4
    "Gavrila lives in a white house, but for some reason he turned black."

    Funny, funny.
    Gavril didn’t start a war, I don’t even know if he can be called a finger on the trigger. And with the head planning ...
    1. mad
      mad 26 January 2016 10: 20
      +1
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      Gavril didn’t start a war, I don’t even know if he can be called a finger on the trigger. And with the head planning ...

      But "casus belli" turned out beautifully from it. And for the last three years, the West has been all in search (or in creation) of this reason ... Russia has so far successfully stopped these problems, but at some point we may be crushed by quantity, the quality will no longer be (((
    2. Velikoruss
      Velikoruss 26 January 2016 23: 53
      0
      Quote: Mavrikiy
      "Gavrila lives in a white house, but for some reason he turned black."

      Funny, funny.
      Gavril didn’t start a war, I don’t even know if he can be called a finger on the trigger. And with the head planning ...

      Macaque on the "planning head" also does not pull laughing ... Maximum, "talking head". But, as it seems to me, he is the "answering ass", whipping boy, zits-chairman. In general, of all presidents, Bananov is the least significant, a man from nowhere. In my mind, he evokes a persistent association with a negro lackey in the planter's house, who, in the absence of the owners, selflessly pranks in front of the cooks and maids. Great nothing.
  5. Same lech
    Same lech 26 January 2016 06: 27
    +9
    And the United States and Europe remain somewhat apart from the theater, rubbing their hands and anticipating dividends.


    Well, Europe also got it ... so not everything goes according to plan.
    Our country has to move in such difficult conditions and these movements resemble jumping in a minefield.
    RUSSIA has to behave very carefully ... the rate is too high ... own existence.
    1. domokl
      domokl 26 January 2016 06: 43
      +5
      laughing Hello kangaroo ... Aleksey is healthy. Indeed, for Russia, "walking on a minefield" has been in a normal state since the end of the 17th century. Already familiar.
      The rate will really be very high. Here, in which case, 50 million lives of mankind will not get off. The bill will go an order of magnitude, or even two more.
      1. Same lech
        Same lech 26 January 2016 06: 54
        +5
        Hello Alexander! smile

        Every year, the modern history of RUSSIA spins more and more interesting and we survive in conditions when other countries would simply fall apart.
        1. Lelek
          Lelek 26 January 2016 12: 42
          +2
          Quote: The same LYOKHA
          Every year, the modern history of RUSSIA spins more and more interesting and we survive in conditions when other countries would simply fall apart.


          Not b .... We will survive. Only now it is annoying that every day our "sworn" some kind of podlyanka put under the door.
          Now, you see, the EU wanted complete control over Gazprom, and that it would fulfill all the consumer’s conditions. Well, not I.D.O.T. are you?
          (cry.)
  6. Riv
    Riv 26 January 2016 06: 31
    +2
    I didn’t understand the meaning of the article. Are we the all-rounder?
  7. 72jora72
    72jora72 26 January 2016 06: 40
    +9
    And the United States and Europe remain somewhat apart from the theater, rubbing their hands and anticipating dividends.
    Further, in our opinion, there are three regions, the status of which can be described as "explosive".
    I can’t understand why the author didn’t add eastern Europe to the list of regions? Ukraine is getting deeper and deeper at the peak, in the Donbass the situation is getting worse (and I doubt that Minsk-2 can solve any problems), and if the meat grinder starts again, I’m not afraid of Europe. But there are still Kosovo and Albania, problems in Macedonia and Bosnia, there is the problem of Cyprus and Turkey, there is Moldova and Transnistria ........ Are you still not enough ??


    Why aren't we considering Europe? Yes, simply because both Europeans and Americans today prefer to solve their problems away from their borders.
    . A very controversial statement, on the contrary, the point of instability in Europe is beneficial for the Americans.
    History never teaches anyone anything ...... The First and Second World Wars confirm this.
    1. domokl
      domokl 26 January 2016 06: 54
      +1
      Quote: 72jora72
      why did the author not add eastern Europe to the list of regions?

      It seems to me obvious. The author mentions this. Europeans do not want to fight on their territory.
      Ukraine, then Moldova, and then? The Balkans are not a particularly stable and strong region. Do not keep the war on its territory.
      Quote: 72jora72
      History never teaches anything to anyone.

      Teaches. in particular, for a serious political, and then military struggle, a real leader is needed. Who in Europe today is that? Merkel? Holland? Cameron? Doubtful. Europeans completely crushed the USA
      1. 72jora72
        72jora72 26 January 2016 08: 18
        +5
        It seems to me obvious. The author mentions this. Europeans do not want to fight on their territory.
        It is certainly so ....... only who will ask them.
    2. Mikhail3
      Mikhail3 26 January 2016 20: 32
      0
      .
      Quote: 72jora72
      I can’t understand why the author didn’t add eastern Europe to the list of regions?

      Therefore, he didn’t. The European Union is a pre-empire, but it is already breaking up. By the logic of things, it would be necessary to start with it, to tear and gobble up nafig. But having crashed in an attempt to create a unified statehood, his money did not lose its significance. And they still have a voice in real politics. So the battle on the borders of the European Union is still prohibited, you won’t hold the fire with declarations, it will immediately be thrown.
      But there are doubts about Turkey. NATO will intervene, but the EU will remain aloof? What is it like? Will the victory be won by the valiant Romanians, powerfully supported by superpribals and heroic Poles? It looks very impressive, yeah. Someone will have to seriously swim in the blood, and to whom? It’s still not clear.
  8. Al_oriso
    Al_oriso 26 January 2016 06: 42
    +4
    Turks begin active actions against the Kurds. Active is like in 2014 year in Ukraine. Iran unequivocally stands up for the Kurds. Erdogan calls for NATO help, especially if he himself is unable to cope. NATO stands up for Turkey, Iran will unequivocally call for help from either Russia or the CSTO, which it is actively trying to join. It started ...

    A weak, contrived chain. Will Iran Join? Will NATO risk? Will Russia agree? Too much if.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 26 January 2016 07: 28
      +4
      Quote: Al_oriso
      Will Iran Join?

      No, his good life is just beginning, he has something to lose.
      Quote: Al_oriso
      Will NATO risk?

      These slowly climb
      Quote: Al_oriso
      Will Russia agree?

      What is the purpose? Fighting terrorists in the hope of defeating them only in Syria is pointless, they are quietly relocating to Libya, Afghanistan and Iraq.
  9. Andryukha G
    Andryukha G 26 January 2016 06: 53
    +2
    There is a developed business in weapons and blood only in one exclusive state.
  10. Barboskin
    Barboskin 26 January 2016 06: 59
    +1
    The first two world carnages were in Europe, why not brew a third in Asia. In any case, there will be little good.
    1. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 26 January 2016 08: 40
      +4
      Would have started a long time ago.
      If not for the atomic bomb.
      With a serious mess in the rear you will not sit out.
  11. Reptiloid
    Reptiloid 26 January 2016 07: 01
    +1
    I really liked the article. Conclusions, summing up.
    About Africa. Such a huge continent. "There is always something happening" (although in the article about North Africa). It seems that it is far away. But now it is known that the distances can be greatly reduced.
  12. George 275
    George 275 26 January 2016 07: 01
    +3
    Anglo-Saxons think how to conquer Russia without nuclear weapons and Syria, Iraq, Libya, this is a training ground so the third world is already underway.
  13. parusnik
    parusnik 26 January 2016 07: 18
    +1
    For this, of course, special thanks to the other world comrades Bolsheviks... that is, the February revolution and the overthrow of the tsar is an urgent necessity ..? Like Kerensky's suppression of Kornilov's "rebellion"?
    1. Llirik
      Llirik 26 January 2016 08: 11
      +2
      Still, a separate peace (read the Brest Agreement and it is) was signed precisely by the Bolsheviks. But everything is very complicated there, although it’s a shame that the country that conducted the most successful offensive operations of the First World War ended up in a trough ...
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 26 January 2016 08: 49
        +2
        Quote: Llyric
        Still, a separate peace (read the Brest Agreement and it is) was signed precisely by the Bolsheviks.

        Well, yes, it was signed, a respite was needed to create the Red Army and it was created, otherwise they deserted from the fronts and left open areas in front of the Germans, and as a result, the Red Army then defeated everyone, so the Bolsheviks signed the Brest Peace, to say the least incorrectly
        Quote: Llyric
        that the country that conducted the most successful offensive operations of the First World War ended up in a trough ...

        By the 17th year, the country was retreating on all fronts, excluding the front with Turkey
        1. Belousov
          Belousov 26 January 2016 09: 22
          +2
          And here the question should be asked why retreat? Why did the soldiers massively desert? More precisely, who didn’t beat them up? Are they the same Bolsheviks?
          Lenin received funding and support from two warring camps. He received from Germany for taking Russia out of the war, because Germans suffered serious losses on the Eastern Front. And he got it from England for ruining Russia when the outcome of the war was already a foregone conclusion and it was necessary to remove the rival in the bickering for trophies.
          1. Fat
            Fat 26 January 2016 13: 39
            0
            Quote: Belousov
            He received from Germany for taking Russia out of the war, because Germans suffered serious losses on the Eastern Front. And he got it from England for ruining Russia when the outcome of the war was already a foregone conclusion and it was necessary to remove the rival in the bickering for trophies.
            I do not know whether Lenin received funds from the named governments, but in the interests of Germany, as well as France and Britain, as it turned out in the end, he worked clearly. Limes "ears" stick out everywhere.
        2. The comment was deleted.
          1. sa-ag
            sa-ag 26 January 2016 10: 41
            +2
            Quote: Belousov
            Why did the soldiers massively desert?

            Because a bacchanalia began with the election of commanders, the control was broken and the soldiers could do what they wanted, and by the way - about the election of commanders appeared during the Provisional Government, if I am not mistaken in March 1917, the Bolsheviks created this free army and created the Red Army for the like betrayal of the cause of the revolution, sabotage and the like could easily be put against the wall, one-man management was introduced, which accordingly affected the controllability of parts
      2. parusnik
        parusnik 26 January 2016 09: 04
        0
        Still, a separate peace (read the Brest Agreement and it is) was signed precisely by the Bolsheviks. ... And not only, by the Ukrainian Central Rada including ... By the way, Kerensky also went to Kiev to agree on the status of Ukraine .. who will it be autonomy, or an independent state ... And how to fight under such conditions when the same Ukrainian nationalists , even if they were part of Russia, on the rights of autonomy, could the front, the Germans open? .. The Brest peace was necessary .. Well, why was it concluded on very harsh conditions .. questions to Trotsky .. who initially badly messed up ..
        1. 72jora72
          72jora72 26 January 2016 09: 27
          -1
          .Well, why was he imprisoned under very harsh conditions .. questions to Trotsky .. who initially badly shit ..
          Well, in the end, I got the full calculation of a shortened ice ax to the head .....
  14. parusnik
    parusnik 26 January 2016 07: 25
    +1
    Returning to the title. Where the new Gabriel Principle lives... Gavrila Principle, was not a lonely psycho ... but a member of the organization behind which another stood ... But what organization stood behind that other is still unknown ... And now everything is clear ... Here who the United States will appoint as the Gavrilo Principle, another question ...
  15. V.ic
    V.ic 26 January 2016 07: 30
    +3
    Overseas puppeteers are held back from the beginning of the Third World War only by the presence of nuclear weapons in the Russian Federation. Europe is against the war with Russia, because GDP warned about the possible use of nuclear weapons with the threat of the existence of the Russian Federation. The "knight's move" to drive "refugees" to Europe is just intended to plunge it into internal chaos and eliminate it, / Europe / as a political player in deciding whether to start a war with the Russian Federation.
  16. Zomanus
    Zomanus 26 January 2016 08: 11
    +6
    Of course, the authors caught up with the horror ...
    As it seems to me personally. they will set fire everywhere they reach.
    And in Europe it can blaze against the backdrop of refugee dominance
    and mass attacks. Well, the Middle East is already coming.
    That is, while opportunities are being prepared, fuses,
    for the unambiguous start of a major war in a particular region.
    Well, and who will trigger this or that fuse,
    we all know very well.
  17. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 26 January 2016 08: 35
    +3
    The goal of modern warfare is not always a specific outcome. War is often fought to maintain tension. And that is the goal. And the war is already underway. There has been a lot of talk about hybrid wars. And the future belongs to them. The hot phase of the war, maybe, as one of its stages, or maybe not. Testing is underway for "weak", many countries. The goal of war is not always destruction; often it is simply the weakening or loss of positions. The clear line between the state of war and peace is blurred.
  18. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 26 January 2016 08: 47
    +1
    It should be noted that the story of the refugees is not new.
    The same thing is happening in Russia on a much larger scale.
    A million Arabs come to Germany? Haha
    Three million Azerbaijanis came to Russia alone.
    But our government looks at it calmly. And on ethnic crime, and on drug trafficking, and on violation of labor law. Like Merkel, our celestials with navel in the dark alleys will never meet.
    1. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 26 January 2016 10: 11
      +2
      I do not agree. We are struggling with ethnic crime, as with any other crime, there are special departments specifically for ethnic crime. The very Azerbaijanis that you recalled, unlike the German events, don’t especially shine and do not attract attention to themselves, and that’s right, otherwise they will fly to your Azerbaijan with a bullet. Remember the events in Moscow, with a slaughtered Spartak fan, or with a broken policeman's head. The reaction was instant and proportionately harsh; all issues were resolved.
  19. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 26 January 2016 09: 07
    +1
    The first, second world wars - the puppeteer and beneficiary of the United States is fundamentally unattainable for any weapon.

    Now the situation is different. Therefore, the desire of amers to fight on a foreign land should be significantly reduced.
    Geyropecy wallowed in sybaritism and homosexuality and also do not want to fight, because they are afraid. Even with a gang of Wahhabi abreks in Cologne could not cope. There is no political will; there are no national leaders able to rally the population (in the USA there is no Roosevelt either).

    Therefore, the first and second world wars were indeed predictable and calculable (as, in fact, indicated in the article). Regarding World War III, nothing is clear; obvious inevitability is not yet visible. But here is something in between, more than a local war, it may well be.
  20. bankirchik34
    bankirchik34 26 January 2016 09: 47
    -2
    every year I read similar articles from vanguard citizens who smell in one of their Svidomo places, that now something has to start. You guys are sick of it.
    1. Banshee
      26 January 2016 11: 13
      +1
      Change site. And do not litter here with your posts, and even with errors.
  21. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 26 January 2016 10: 06
    +1
    The article was liked, accessible, interesting, informative. The conclusion suggests itself that if the goal of the USA and Europe is primarily Middle Eastern resources, then all kinds of Saudis, Qatars and others like them, owning an ample oil reserve, are simply obliged to die the death of the brave, bequeathing all their reserves to the USA and Europe.
    1. Pissarro
      Pissarro 26 January 2016 11: 20
      +1
      This is superfluous, all Middle Eastern resources are transferred to the West anyway, and the Middle Eastern monarchies buy Western goods with the proceeds, there is no production of their own, although the availability of ideal logistic schemes, cheap resources, a complete absence of taxes and free labor force begs to develop production here. there are none and all, these are the rules of the imposed game. For this, the absolute monarchies of the gulf ensure the iron order in the region and are faithful allies of the West
  22. triglav
    triglav 26 January 2016 10: 49
    +3
    I doubt that there are prerequisites for a third world war. In Europe, not everything is the same: if a large-scale involvement of Russia and other countries in the conflict in the Middle East begins, which develops into open clashes between armies of different countries, it will not seem to anyone. And the Americans will not defend their "brothers in the alliance": they are well aware that our Army has more than any means of delivery. And the states will not get out, as in the first two wars. It is only the senile Biden who pokes at Russia. Moreover, there will be elections soon in the states. But in fact, the same old man will not cut the branch on which he sits. And the Turks are well aware that Russia has not yet avenged them for the death of the pilot. And if they get involved in a conflict with our country on the territory of Syria, it will not seem enough for them. And the Americans, again, will not defend them: they will find a thousand excuses. First of all, the hostilities are not being conducted on the territory of Turkey, which means they do not pose a threat to the alliance state. So you need to be calmer, gentlemen, quieter ...
  23. Leader
    Leader 26 January 2016 11: 04
    0
    An endless series of local conflicts will inevitably grow into a universal orgy ...
    Look, in the Middle East they are already confused themselves and are fighting "all against all."
    Get ready, there will be a war!
    1. Chtononibrator
      Chtononibrator 26 January 2016 12: 39
      0
      How would you understand where the local ended and the world began? If, upon arrival, the nuclerenbaton then it makes no sense.
  24. Shark Lover
    Shark Lover 26 January 2016 12: 41
    +1
    Why can't we use their weapons? After all, North America (the continent) is full of various nations, but they somehow get along. Tough domestic politics? Is tolerance only in Europe? What prevents in the same way, with Russian ingenuity, to knock someone's foreheads on a distant continent, there will be a mess, there is nowhere to run, the ocean, you cannot escape on boats. Not for self-interest, but stability for, on the main continent. In no case do I call, I do not incite, but why are a bunch of bankers who have gone crazy on the basis of power, while still in their right minds doing what they want? Why nuclear weapons when there are their developments of color revolutions. What profit are you talking about here? There is already so much dough that the whole earth will live happily for a hundred years without working (figuratively). It is simply, as one of our deputy said, "I am no longer interested in money," the struggle for power, once offended, oppressed, with a perverted psyche (guess by the names of the names) by a small group under which the whole ball caved in. While we are defending, defense does not lead to Victory, so when we discuss and savor here the IRA's struggle against the invaders, another depression and victorious processions of the Indians, with the support of the Aerospace Forces on the famous continent, then Vika will visit us.
  25. alicante11
    alicante11 26 January 2016 13: 10
    +1
    It's strange, isn't it clear that the next (third?) World is already underway. They will ask me, where are the multi-hundred-meter fronts, the multi-million-strong armies, enthusiastically waving each other on these fronts? However, you have outdated concepts, the 21st century is still in the yard. The Age of Hybrid Wars. However, we will return to "hybrids" later. In the meantime, I draw your attention to one fact that indicates that the war is in full swing. In diplomacy, there is a uniform chaos. After all, the golden years of diplomacy - the 19th century, accustom us to waging a struggle similar to a duel between two French nobles. Who, dressed in lace and brocade, armed with thin skewers, weave royal monograms with these in the hope of confusing the enemy. Treaty of Paris, Berlin Congress, London Convention. And what politicians ?! Bismarck, Gorchakov, Disraeli, Gladstone ... Of course, in those days there were also "club strikes" - like the "gunboat policy", the shelling of Alexandria by the British, the "opening" of Nagasaki by the Americans or the Opium Wars. But, nevertheless, diplomacy between the major powers was maneuverable, not arrogant, in one to sacrifice in order to win in another. Now let's look at "diplomacy" before WWI. When they saw that the Serbs did not accept any item of the ultimatum, the Austrians immediately ordered passports. The Germans insolently demand that Russia cancel the mobilization against Austria. I'm not even talking about the Gleiwitz incident of 1939 or about the attacks without a declaration of war. That is, diplomats cease to understand each other, from the word "absolutely". And then the guns begin to speak. We can observe the same thing now. "Exceptional" Americans include "psacking" in response to Lavrov's attempts to point out Russia's interests, and give much more bomb-assault and missile strikes of the Russian Aerospace Forces and the Russian Navy. And the Turks do not find anything better to protest against Russia's actions in Syria than to shoot down a Great Power's military aircraft. So this is a war, just the presence of nuclear weapons does not allow the parties to deploy military operations with all their might, and battles are going on in the periphery in the form of terrorist attacks and orange revolutions. Which have little effect on the main participants in the conflict. However, in WWI, initially, there was also a "positional impasse" from which they came out in different ways, from tanks to assault groups for several years. So modern politicians and the military have time to grope for the kinds of warfare that will make hybrid war as deadly as its predecessors. Moreover, the economical use of resources in a hybrid war allows you to continue searching for a long time.
  26. Radikal
    Radikal 26 January 2016 13: 26
    +1
    Quote: parusnik
    Returning to the title. Where the new Gabriel Principle lives... Gavrila Principle, was not a lonely psycho ... but a member of the organization behind which another stood ... But what organization stood behind that other is still unknown ... And now everything is clear ... Here who the United States will appoint as the Gavrilo Principle, another question ...
    What organisation...? But none. It is necessary to talk about several banking houses that owned then and still own the main capital of the world, and are in permanent rivalry throughout the history of their existence! What tasks did they want to solve as a result of the beginning of the 1st world-cutting borders, seizing new sales markets, etc., etc. There is no point in listing - all this has long been researched. In World War II, in addition to those previously listed, one more task was set, and probably the most important one - the destruction of the USSR! For example, throughout the war, the leading US banking houses successfully financed the supply of strategic raw materials to Germany - oil, ore, etc., etc. As for the symbolic Gavrila, do not worry (if this word is applicable in this situation) "Gavrila" always in reserve, so to speak, on indefinite leave, at the right time it will appear, and in what form, or image, this is already a matter of taste and a specific situation in the world.
  27. Oprichnik
    Oprichnik 26 January 2016 13: 29
    0
    With the permission of Svyatoslav, I will cite the following:
    Here’s Pike’s short letter: “For the complete triumph of Freemasonry, three world wars will be needed ... Illuminati agents (occult-philosophical associations, a secret organization that secretly governs the world processes) must rekindle the third world war, taking advantage of the differences between the Zionists and the leaders of the Islamic world. The war will be fought in such a way that Islam and the Zionists mutually destroy each other. Meanwhile, other countries, once again divided on this issue, will be forced to fight to the point of complete physical, moral, spiritual and economic decay. War must be unleashed by nihilists and atheists, after which we will provoke a gigantic social upheaval, the horrors of which will show everyone the death of unbelief. "The revolutionary minority will be destroyed, and the majority disappointed in Christianity ... will receive from us the true light of the teachings of Lucifer."
    The United States will provoke a military clash between India and China. War of attrition. US assistance to both parties in exchange for gold.
    Provoking unrest in Russia in the wake of the impoverishment of the people, overthrowing GDP, crushing Russia, bringing puppets to power. Destruction and ousting of the Russian ethnos from the country's resources. The territory and resources of the country are in the hands of the mass oligarchs.

    Provoking a war of extermination in Europe between Christians and Muslims, fascists and Islamists. Economic and social decline in Europe.
    Islam is outlawed. The destruction of Judaism, now final (for no need).
    The discrediting of Christianity through the stuffing of historical documents from the Vatican.
    Baphomet is walking on the planet.
    Judging by the general trend in the social and international politics of many countries, everything is realizable.
  28. unknown
    unknown 26 January 2016 13: 57
    0
    The goal of WWII is the destruction of the British Empire. In that war, Germany and the USSR were just tools in the hands of Britain and the USA. Moreover, Britain merged Germany, but the USA-USSR did not. Which raises the question of the real independence of Stalin. After WWII, Stalin showed independence, he was removed.

    According to forecasts, the Masons do not have much time.

    In 2017, Germany will begin to rage. Will end with the exit from the Jewish Union and NATO.
    In 2021, China will begin real problems
    In 2025, Russia will complete the Imperial cycle and move to the West.
    In 2029, the Outskirts will return to Russia (what remains).
    Iran will become the New Empire, but the United States will not be either hot or cold, their greatness will end in 2025.
    We will live, we will check.
    1. alicante11
      alicante11 26 January 2016 14: 02
      +2
      Moreover, Britain merged Germany, but the USA-USSR did not. Which raises the question of the real independence of Stalin. After WWII, Stalin showed independence, he was removed.


      You ... this is ... toga (s). The USSR in 1945 could itself "drain" anyone. Unlike Germany.
  29. gregor6549
    gregor6549 26 January 2016 14: 48
    -1
    What Gavrila, what 3ya World?
    Such a war can occur only with the very great desire of the two countries of the United States and Russia. But neither one nor the other is necessary by definition.
    The United States has enough of its resources and even oil, and what is lacking, they will buy, the benefit of the green from them is immeasurable.
    Russia also has no reason to fight the United States. Moreover, the welfare of the powerful in Russia is so closely linked with the economist of the United States and other Western countries that to shoot at their own real estate in London or Helsinki is somehow quite a bastard. It's easier to shoot yourself. Moreover, their offspring also learn and breed there.
    So stop hysterical about the 3 World War and it's time to think about what we’ll feed our people when oil prices drop below the baseboard.
    Of course, in such a situation, one can find his own Gavrila, who cannot think of anything else but pressing a button. And there it will become easier with feeding. Tighten the belts and march on the enemy. You look and even marching food won't be needed. What is not an economic solution. As they said under Brezhnev, "The economy must be economical." Although they said that "" The economy should be! "Remember how Stalin prepared the economy for a big war and how much time and effort it took. And now on what basis to fight. There is no basis.
    In general, enough to carry nonsense about the war and it's time to tackle more pressing problems
  30. Orionvit
    Orionvit 26 January 2016 15: 49
    +1
    Quote: Mavrikiy
    Who cares where he lives? The main thing is those who find him.

    The article put a plus, but in my opinion, it is somewhat superficial. The world is governed not by presidents and kings, and not even by bankers and transnational corporations (these are just means), but structures that they try to never talk about. In 1913, the largest European and American bankers gathered in Manhattan (you yourself know the nationality of these figures). They discussed the issue of how to give more rights to governments and protect citizens. There was only one conclusion, the war. During the war, social institutions do not work, and governments seize the opportunity to tighten the screws to the limit. President Wilson signs the law on the national reserve (that is, gives the right to print money to a private bank), And exactly one year later, a consumptive Jewish boy shoots at the Archduke. World massacre, millions of dead, destroyed Europe, the United States on horseback, as a result of the organization of a league of nations. In the 30s, the great depression in the usa. And so 1939, Germany attacks Poland. As a result of 1944, the Bretten Woods Agreement, the dollar is the world currency, the war is quickly ending, the UN organization. Now, nothing has changed. The global crisis of the dollar and the economy, and the recipe for shadow puppeteers is one-world war. So that’s true, the Principle will be found. That is, in short. By the way, why did Hitler squeeze the whole of Europe under himself and did not attack Switzerland? He had work for two days. But the foreign exchange and gold reserves of Swiss banks would have been seized. Yes, because in Switzerland its owners sat.
  31. Valdis
    Valdis 26 January 2016 17: 18
    0
    Those wars were without the use of weapons of mass destruction. Guns and rifles. Right now another time has come, one volley and no Poland, for example. Whoever is afraid can fly to Australia.
  32. chelovektapok
    chelovektapok 26 January 2016 17: 37
    0
    It seems that on "Gavrila Princip" now all "put a long". The EU will "tolerate" to the last until the creation of "Swedish families" with barmaley at the head. Old Europe is still a pervert! She does not care what color the penis satisfies in her fantasies. Z. Freud was talking about it. Well, not bearded EU women will trim blonde European women before "brain flight"? And the Arabs can! And already they CAN! Since biblical times: - the destruction of Empires began with the revelry of harlots. Unsatisfied female energy (yin) is a terrible force. Like water breaking through dams combined with a new Yang of Arab origin. Contact is already there, albeit scandalous officially. Unofficially, Europeans like it!
  33. Former battalion commander
    Former battalion commander 26 January 2016 21: 08
    0
    The article is too superficial. The main goal in the first and second world was only Russia! The rest that fell under the distribution is simply an accident and the result of the HEROISM of the Russian soldier. The first is the Turks and Austrians, whom the Russians gouged into dust. True, the West managed to level this victory of the Russians by organizing a revolution in Russia, but the West still did not understand which animal it had woken up, and when it understood it was too late. And so I had to organize a second world war. Already to destroy the USSR. Present time is characterized by the same goals of the West. The Third World War (against Russia) IS STARTED! The collapse in oil prices is the first volleys. Further, if the internal state of Russia does not lead to popular uprisings and civil war, the second phase of the war will come. Namely, RUSSIA FULLY BLOCK! Like Cuba or Iran! They will give up Russian oil and gas, and will be banned from selling weapons. If this does not help the internal self-dumping, the HOT STAGE will also begin! Most likely it will start from Ukraine! In the Far East, even though the Japs and South Koreans look belligerent, I think they aren’t frostbitten to the extent that they provoke a thermonuclear strike, which the USA is strenuously organizing! In general, the article is very weak and even amateurish.
  34. Stiletto_711
    Stiletto_711 26 January 2016 21: 38
    0
    The article is sucked out of the finger. Yes, there are prerequisites for starting a big fight, but a blind goat security in the wilderness of Patagonia will tell you about this. Piling all the facts into a heap, mixing, and then pulling each other for all the protruding parts to each other is not an analysis - this is a recipe for vinaigrette. The author on the culinary forum.
  35. Nikolay71
    Nikolay71 27 January 2016 04: 58
    0
    Quote: Al_oriso
    Turks begin active actions against the Kurds. Active is like in 2014 year in Ukraine. Iran unequivocally stands up for the Kurds. Erdogan calls for NATO help, especially if he himself is unable to cope. NATO stands up for Turkey, Iran will unequivocally call for help from either Russia or the CSTO, which it is actively trying to join. It started ...

    A weak, contrived chain. Will Iran Join? Will NATO risk? Will Russia agree? Too much if.

    Iran is unlikely to stand up for the Kurds. He has his own "Kurdish problem".