Military Review

Guessing on the oil thicket, or How the American financiers poured the oil market

49
Guessing on the oil thicket, or How the American financiers poured the oil marketThe World Economic Forum in Davos, held at the end of the week at this ski resort in Switzerland, was marked by a large number of forecasts for oil prices, the ruble exchange rate and the prospects for the Russian economy. However, the predictions are more similar to predictions and even divination. The focus of attention of the Russian delegation, as is usual in recent times, were ex-Minister of Finance of Russia Alexei Kudrin and President of the Board of Sberbank German Gref.


Crafty predictions of note takers

Most of all, of course, they talked about oil, the market of which has been bringing more and more new surprises to the world economy for a year and a half. Aleksey Kudrin said this arrogantly: “Neither the presidential aides, nor I believed that there would be a new such big collapse in oil prices - this created a new reality.” New Kudrin reality - oil at $ 18 or even $ 16 per barrel, albeit for a short time. Not kept in Davos from forecasts and German Gref. As always, Gref’s forecasts did not concern the prospects of the bank he headed, but related markets, and above all - oil. The head of Sberbank predicted oil prices in the first half of the year not higher than 35 dollars per barrel.

Our note-takers from the housekeeper did not make any discovery. The game for a fall in oil prices has been going on for a long time and seriously. The goals of this action are different. More precisely, there are several of them. Two stand out. First of all, low oil prices are dragging down all commodities, which undoubtedly provides strong support to the stagnating economies of developed countries. In addition, cheap oil hurts across Russia, holds back its development, which is good news for overseas strategists. Some analysts put the game against Russia first, but this is a matter of taste and mood. In general, the sum does not change from the change of the mentioned components: the low prices for oil benefit mainly the economies of the leading countries of the world.

Therefore, not only the predictions of Kudrin and Gref, but also numerous forecasts of Western experts, politicians, bankers and the media continue to push oil down. Here are analysts of the American JPMorgan Chase (note for ourselves this bank, we still have to remember about it) on the threshold of Davos significantly lowered the forecast for oil prices of reference brands. They expect the North Sea Brent to have an average of 31,25 dollars per barrel in a year, while the American WTI expects 31,5 dollars.

Revised the outlook for the oil price in 2016-2017 for the downside of the American bank Morgan Stanley. According to his estimates, during this period a barrel of Brent oil will cost 41,9 dollars per barrel (the previous forecast is 51,9 dollars). Sandra Grabenweger-Straka, executive director of the Frankman branch of the American company Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said that world oil prices have not yet reached the bottom.

We note for ourselves that in exercises with forecasts for lowering oil prices, Russian “experts” compete mainly with American “soothsayers”. The United States has been working on this for a year. Oil was pushed down by expectations of a rise in the interest rate of the US federal reserve. This game was constantly. Once a quarter it was announced that the Fed is going to raise the rate by 0,5 percent, and therefore it is more profitable to return dollars from commodity markets to financial markets - in the USA. Raw materials and oil became cheaper, and the interest rate remained unchanged until the end of the year. In December, it was finally raised to the promised heights, once again pushing oil down.

What was the bottom line? Over the past year, the price of oil collapsed three times, in return, investors were able to place the released funds on the American financial market under symbolic 0,5 percent. (Moreover, according to expert estimates, they had at least 55 per annum on oil transactions.) Here you can already speak, if not about collusion, then at least about the manageability of the financial market of the United States.

When oil is not needed for nothing

In mid-January, Nikolai Tokarev, president of Transneft, the Russian oil transport company, said at a meeting with journalists that the oil market is politicized and manipulative. Tokarev said then: “When it was necessary to“ lower ”Russia, the price of oil was lowered. AT stories we know many examples of this. " The recognition of the head of Transneft once again confirms: today there are no objective prices on the oil market. This conclusion has long been reached by responsible analysts, but even they are kept from harsh assessments by polite. After all, whatever one may say, the world oil market is not just manipulated, it is destroyed today.

How else to explain that, for example, the cost of heavy oil from North Dakota fell below zero. In 2014, the brand was given $ 47,60 per barrel, in 2015 - $ 13.50, and now Flint Hills Resources is engaged in processing Dakota oil only if it is paid for each barrel of 50 cents. This writes the American news agency Bloomberg, with reference to the corporate price list of the company.

The message Bloomberg can be treated as a curiosity or economic foppiness of the owners of the processing company. However, it is better to estimate oil in a different coordinate system. In America, it has long been said in full voice that oil has become twice cheaper than milk. Engaged in mathematical calculations in the Russian segment of the Internet. The conclusion was shocking - “a barrel of Brent oil now costs less than a barrel of ordinary water that Russians buy for home or office coolers.” Repeat these calculations. Drinking water of the highest category is now worth about 350 rubles per 19 liters. Per barrel (159 liters) is obtained 2928 rubles. On Friday, by the end of trading, oil rose to $ 32,18, while the ruble stopped at 77,51 per dollar. Simple multiplication gives us 2494 rubles and the result - a barrel of water in the evening on Friday cost 434 rubles more expensive than a barrel of oil.

You can, of course, explain such a grimace of the market by nonsense that the authorities of Saudi Arabia are doing, trying to keep their share in the hydrocarbon trade. We can recall the promise of Iran to increase oil supplies to 500 thousand barrels per day by March. (This, by the way, is a new horror story, which the Americans have replaced, has exhausted the story of the interest rate increase.) On closer examination, it turns out that the Iranians will add to the world supply no more than 0,5 percent, and last year oil production in the world, according to the Saudi newspaper Al-Ictisadia increased by only 1,8 percent. All this does not correspond to the current deep collapse in oil prices.

In the same Davos, the president and co-owner of the Russian oil company Lukoil, Vagit Alekperov, told reporters that taking into account the supply of oil (production and accumulated reserves) and demand for it, the price should be at least $ 50 per barrel. However, real life forces Lukoil to correct plans and make several scenarios of actions in 2016, as market events are now developing in an unpredictable way.

Where did the product go?

Alekperov can understand. For him, the forecast of oil prices is not an abstract exercise in economic rhetoric. From the accuracy of the analysis depends largely on the market prospects of his oil company. Therefore, the head of Lukoil speaks of a fair, balanced, and not speculative oil price, but even he showed surprising modesty. After all, reputable Western experts have repeatedly stated publicly that "the price, based on the net supply-demand ratio, should be at the level of $ 60-70 per barrel." Everything else is from the evil one. The fall in oil prices is the work of speculators, or, as head of JP Morgan Chase James Dimon said in Davos, “These are emotional actions of market players and purely financial factors.”

The American banker knows what he is talking about. In the early seventies of the last century, oil on the market was worth some two dollars per barrel. That was the time when the American currency had a gold equivalent. Soon, the United States made a "revolutionary" move - untied the dollar from gold and began to correlate its course on the mass market. At the beginning of his, then - the world.

The new approach demanded the utmost responsibility and discipline from the American authorities, imitating the world currency, the dollar. But the golden age of stock market dealers has arrived. They began to trade not so much oil, metals, industrial raw materials or food, as derivatives. So called financial substitutes, giving the right to purchase commodities. As for oil, a variety of these surrogates is involved - futures. They reflect only the level of prices and delivery time. Volumes of supply of goods are displayed outside the brackets of the transaction, which creates a basis for exchange manipulations.

Futures and similar financial instruments have long become an independent exchange commodity, having emanated from the classical money-commodity-money market formula, the commodity itself. On the new non-commodity formula, the American currency is now flourishing. The financial crisis of 2008 of the year was caused by a surplus on surrogate derivatives exchanges, which more than ten times exceeded the commodity volume of the world market ($ 600 trillion against $ 58 trillion of global GDP).

That crisis, as we remember, was flooded with new money, launching trillions more into the economy. This turned out to be a half-measure, the market pendulum swung in the direction of genuine commodities, raising their price to transcendental heights (oil at its peak cost $ 135). It took several years to reverse the situation (they raised the proposal at the expense of shale deposits and increased production in Saudi Arabia, eliminated restraining balances like oil OPEC, etc.). On the street derivatives came again holiday.

Came, it seems, for a long time. It is not by chance that responsible analysts talk about long-term low oil prices. Such assessments have recently been expressed by the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, the Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev, and other officials who are in control of the market situation. They recognize that the balance of supply and demand will come in the 2016 year, but this will not drastically change prices.

A pessimist is said to be a well-informed optimist. Russian officials, as they say, are in the subject and really represent the whole of Everest of surrogate and genuine money, which is pressing today on the commodity markets in favor of the countries of the “golden billion”. This problem will not be resolved soon. After all, which has become a "thing in itself" all derivatives trading is now going through US banks processing dollar payments. Here, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, already familiar to us, you can add Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs Group, other largest banks with trillion-dollar turnover in dollars. It is not only nationality that binds them, but, as independent experts admit, non-transparency of payments, including in oil futures.

Authorities sometimes pay attention to this. Occasionally even banks are fined, which generally does not change the picture. Discipline and responsibility, so important to world financial centers, have long since left American bankers. And today there is nothing more for them than money — even if it is surrogate. The world has only problems, crises and uncertainty ...
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  1. Riv
    Riv 25 January 2016 06: 50
    10
    I am encouraged by the fact that Ulyukaev announced an oil price of $ 10. He had never guessed correctly yet. But what if he was wrong, as always, but in a big way? After all, the funniest thing will begin when those who are now playing for a decrease in oil, say: "Well, that's enough. It's time to cut the money." - and try to raise prices again. But loot suddenly does not want to get a haircut, and prices rise.

    Then laughter ... Have you heard the noise now? This Petrosyan fainted with envy.
    1. Bennert
      Bennert 25 January 2016 07: 24
      +5
      Let her (oil) stop swinging at all

      Maybe then a question "What happened to the oil pipe" will give way to the question: can learn to do something else, except pumping oil

      So that world oil prices affect the Russian economy in the same way as moonlight on rails. The cost of raw materials - nothing against the final cost of products with a high degree of processing
      1. heal
        heal 25 January 2016 09: 28
        0
        Quote: BENNERT
        Maybe then the question "What happened to the oil pipe" will be replaced by the question: can one learn to do something else besides pumping oil

        So that world oil prices affect the Russian economy in the same way as moonlight on rails. The cost of raw materials - nothing against the final cost of products with a high degree of processing

        So in Russia there is nothing but raw materials and its sale. The ruble objectively confirms this.
        1. Ros 56
          Ros 56 25 January 2016 10: 46
          +6
          Quote: heal
          So in Russia there is nothing but raw materials and its sale. The ruble objectively confirms this.

          It's a lie. Income from raw materials, as economists say, is about 30%. It is necessary to specifically understand, and now there is no time to go.
          1. Wheel
            Wheel 25 January 2016 13: 23
            +5
            Quote: Ros 56
            It's a lie. Income from raw materials, as economists say, is about 30%.

            Brad!
            Economists can say anything; they are not responsible for their words.
            Everything is checked at the level of arithmetic for the elementary classes.
            Oil sank three times, respectively, budget revenues fell by the same amount. If you believe the "economists", then the budget loss from the drawdown will be 20%.
            In order to compensate for the budget in ruble terms, the ruble was halved twice.
            Total, these 20% of losses from lower oil prices pulled exactly half the budget in ruble terms.
            Completely uncomplicated calculations give the share of budget oil revenues in 75%.
            Now this is more like the truth.
          2. DimerVladimer
            DimerVladimer 25 January 2016 15: 35
            +5
            from open sources (FCS of Russia)
            Russia's exports of essential goods
            in January-November 2015


            oil, gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products (excluding natural gas) 71,3% of total export earnings
            study - if interested
            http://www.customs.ru/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13858&Itemid=
            2095
          3. marna
            marna 25 January 2016 18: 43
            0
            Quote: Ros 56
            Income from raw materials, as economists say, is about 30%.

            Profits of oil and gas in the structure of GDP do not exceed 16%. But the share of hydrocarbons in export about 2/3. Often (intentionally or not) the first indicator is substituted for the second, as a result of which the myth about the "oil needle" on which we are sitting arises. In fact, rumors about the premature demise of our economy are clearly greatly exaggerated. It seems that the volatility of the ruble is a situation provoked by not clean on hand financiers, against the backdrop of falling oil prices and linking it exclusively to income from the sale of hydrocarbons.
            1. atalef
              atalef 25 January 2016 18: 51
              +1
              Quote: marna
              Quote: Ros 56
              Income from raw materials, as economists say, is about 30%.

              Profits of oil and gas in the structure of GDP do not exceed 16%. But the share of hydrocarbons in export about 2/3. Often (intentionally or not) the first indicator is substituted for the second, as a result of which the myth about the "oil needle" on which we are sitting arises. In fact, rumors about the premature demise of our economy are clearly greatly exaggerated. It seems that the volatility of the ruble is a situation provoked by not clean on hand financiers, against the backdrop of falling oil prices and linking it exclusively to income from the sale of hydrocarbons.

              Leave alone the GDP, the conversation can only go on the budget (the country lives on the budget, not on the GDP) and in it is the budget, oil taxes are more than half
              1. marna
                marna 25 January 2016 20: 13
                0
                Quote: atalef
                conversation can only go on budget

                And gold reserves for what exists in the country, with the same oil, by the way. So let the government patch up the gap in the budget, and not let these funds in to contain inflation so that there is something to report on. In parallel, the restart of the entire economic system, targeted emission, tax cuts and other tools. The Finekonom block needs to move, and not wait for oil prices to rise. In my previous post I wrote specifically about the share of hydrocarbon revenues in the economy. And how the budget is made up is a separate issue.
                1. atalef
                  atalef 25 January 2016 21: 41
                  0
                  Quote: marna
                  Quote: atalef
                  conversation can only go on budget

                  And gold reserves for what exists in the country, with the same oil, by the way. So let the government patch up the gap in the budget, and not let these funds in to contain inflation so that there is something to report on. In parallel, the restart of the entire economic system, targeted emission, tax cuts and other tools. The Finekonom block needs to move, and not wait for oil prices to rise. In my previous post I wrote specifically about the share of hydrocarbon revenues in the economy. And how the budget is made up is a separate issue.

                  Zvr exist - to ensure the stability of the financial system
                  Target emission and tax cuts - lead to one increase in inflation
                  And how is the budget made up is not a separate issue, but the main shopping mall, on the one hand, do you want to reduce taxes, and on the other hand, oil revenues have fallen, due to which the state will live?
                  Due to your slogan, restarting the system and other tools?
                  1. marna
                    marna 26 January 2016 00: 53
                    0
                    Quote: atalef
                    Due to your slogan, restarting the system and other tools?

                    Something I did not understand, but what do you actually offer?
                    Wait until oil grows, then tax revenues increase and everyone heals in a big way?
                    Neither the government nor the Central Bank need to do anything. Just sit and wait for everything to form by itself. Well, if only to ensure the stability of the financial system. It is tempting. Let's wait.
        2. _my opinion
          _my opinion 25 January 2016 18: 04
          +2
          Quote: heal
          Quote: BENNERT
          Maybe then the question "What happened to the oil pipe" will be replaced by the question: can one learn to do something else besides pumping oil

          So that world oil prices affect the Russian economy in the same way as moonlight on rails. The cost of raw materials - nothing against the final cost of products with a high degree of processing

          So in Russia there is nothing but raw materials and its sale. The ruble objectively confirms this.

          there is nothing but raw materials?
      2. Xergey
        Xergey 25 January 2016 13: 40
        0
        It's not about oil, it's about the Medvedev government, which is already doing nothing brazenly to normalize our economy, like Americans are doing mess around the world, and everyone is silent like what can we do, and our economy (killed or beaten or not beaten up) ) choose for yourself as you like, already trying to somehow (survive, get out or get out) by itself. We say a lot that everything is dull, but we just do nothing, and in the meantime, our liberal space has already begun to sing like in the 90s that we all need to live in a new way, it’s better to go back to Geyropa and Yusa there. So it seems that the beginning of incomprehensible actions begins with us.
        1. PHANTOM-AS
          PHANTOM-AS 25 January 2016 13: 56
          +3
          It is especially annoying that dancing with tambourines around oil prices has been going on for quite some time, the government, in addition to canstation of facts, is completely inactive, or is engaged in patching-redistributing the budget.
          But there were no real actions aimed at development either.
          They are still modestly keeping quiet about the fact that we were "honored" to host the FIFA World Cup, a very saw-cut project that can be compared with the Olympic Games.
          And it’s also interesting what the rating of the government as a whole and its ministers in particular is today.
          1. Cap.Morgan
            Cap.Morgan 25 January 2016 22: 42
            0
            These dances began under Brezhnev.
            The economy must be economical! 50 years to these dances.
      3. Ratmir_Ryazan
        Ratmir_Ryazan 25 January 2016 21: 47
        0
        For example? )))
    2. Hon
      Hon 25 January 2016 08: 58
      +2
      Quote: Riv
      After all, the funniest thing will begin when those who are now playing for a decrease in oil, say: "Well, that's enough. It's time to cut the loot." - and try to raise prices again.

      Now it will not be possible to raise prices, firstly, the low price is not only stock games but also the increase in production, including by Russia, and secondly, even if production is reduced, there will not be a sharp jump, during the time of cheap oil, consumers have accumulated huge reserves, and time until these stocks will be recycled
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 25 January 2016 11: 31
        +1
        Now is just a great time to buy shares in oil and gas campaigns, they are cheap now, but tomorrow - who knows what will happen tomorrow, you can take a chance on this.
    3. Skif83
      Skif83 25 January 2016 12: 15
      +6
      Laugh, apologize, to shit!
      Ulyukaev would be in a battle of psychics.
      The impression is that there (in the "elite") completely downs were collected. Actually, this is no longer an impression, but confidence.
      Otherwise, how can this be:
      Aleksey Kudrin said this arrogantly: “Neither the presidential aides, nor I thought that there would be a new, so big collapse in oil prices - this created a new reality”
      take it seriously?
      Yes, there is no need to "believe", it is necessary to forecast based on the interests and resources of the players in world politics.
      If you only have a raw material resource, and the "partners" have your interest in trampling you, so be it!
      And you, should not "believe" and build an independent economy!
      I don’t know, is Putin really tired of hearing all this about Twitter government?
      It's time to ask someone already ...
    4. DIMA45R
      DIMA45R 25 January 2016 13: 52
      +2
      This is America insidiously sucked us ................
  2. D-Master
    D-Master 25 January 2016 06: 51
    21
    The article is not about anything. The author for a long time milled the water without essentially saying anything. But the essence is extremely simple. For each barrel of real oil, there are 10 barrels of virtual futures. The same thing happens with other commodities, gold, silver, copper, platinum, etc. Raw materials have long become a subjective unit. for example PLATINUM, which physically costs much less gold now costs 20% cheaper. Due to the fact that the market has decided so, gold is a protective asset. Therefore, the United States decided to wage war against Russia - brought down the oil market in the offices of Walt Street. And the overproduction of oil is all from the evil one. Someone has not canceled custom-made articles and general market manipulation. When the situation is decided - in any way. The spring of oil that I squeeze so hard through my knee will open up with the demolition of all the slats. And everyone will shout about the lack of investment and the lack of oil in the market.
    1. Forget
      Forget 25 January 2016 07: 56
      0
      Quote: D-Master
      The oil spring, which I squeeze so hard through the knee, will open up with the demolition of all the slats

      Yes, this will also be a problem for the global economy.
    2. sa-ag
      sa-ag 25 January 2016 08: 25
      0
      Quote: D-Master
      Raw materials have long become a subjective unit. for example, PLATINUM, which physically costs much less gold now costs 20% less. Due to the fact that the market has decided so, gold is a protective asset.

      That’s for the reason that platinum is less than gold and it became cheaper, everyone rushed to buy more gold, the price of goods immediately soared, as the classic of the genre says, and platinum is needed more in industry
    3. Marwel-f
      Marwel-f 25 January 2016 13: 42
      +1
      Oh, with your blessed lips, let’s take a sip of honey.
  3. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 25 January 2016 06: 58
    10
    A million times the power shouted "- it's time to build an economy independent of energy resources"! And again, oil will save Russia? And why fuck your porridge, with so much oil, we have a constant rise in the price of everything around - why don't they lower prices, but lower wages? Is it time for the government to move to where the Makar calves do not graze?
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 25 January 2016 11: 34
      +1
      Because speculators are everywhere and we live in Russia, in a country where everything is different from the others — that’s why.
    2. Alexy
      Alexy 25 January 2016 16: 02
      +1
      Because it is necessary to trade not with crude oil, but at least with oil products. And it’s more profitable for us to drive oil abroad. And this is all our legislation. I think it’s clear where to look for the fifth column.
  4. Good cat
    Good cat 25 January 2016 07: 03
    +3
    Down with "Lords" Gref and Ulyukayev!
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 25 January 2016 07: 38
    +9
    The most accurate forecast was given by one of our ministers: "The price of oil can both fall and rise"Where do they get such" smart "ministers, or rather, who raises them?
    1. heal
      heal 25 January 2016 09: 26
      +4
      Quote: rotmistr60
      The most accurate forecast was given by one of our ministers: "The price of oil can both go down and go up."

      This is called "owning the market situation".
  6. surrozh
    surrozh 25 January 2016 08: 09
    +2
    With our "prophets" everything is clear - we need not talkers, but real production workers. It is not clear with the dollar - it is getting more expensive, raw materials and goods are getting cheaper, looks like hidden inflation and a crisis of overproduction.
  7. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 25 January 2016 08: 29
    +6
    The author also writes that the banks have started to play down. And they received an unexpected "camouflage" in the form of a decline in their own markets. Moreover, oil exporters who have accumulated not small "reserves" of treasury bonds of mattresses began to sell them, hoping to survive hard times. And the stability of these debts turned out to be very low. No matter how the rope stretches that can bring down the mountain.
  8. Free wind
    Free wind 25 January 2016 09: 00
    +8
    And are the Americans here? In Russia, oil production last year reached a historic high, coming close to the volume of production in the USSR. and the multi-monger states that we will increase oil production. And why, at a cost of oil like 2005, didn’t the dollar lose in value? Yes, and many other reasons for the cheapening of oil, well, for example, cars have become more economical. But only ours needs to find the enemy and blame him for all his troubles. and they themselves are very smart and well-worn, headed by Putin
    1. heal
      heal 25 January 2016 09: 25
      +3
      Quote: Free Wind
      And are the Americans here? In Russia, oil production last year reached a historic high, coming close to the volume of production in the USSR. and the multi-monger states that we will increase oil production. And why, at a cost of oil like 2005, didn’t the dollar lose in value?

      You don’t understand anything, this is another "mnogo.khodov.ochka" and HPP.
  9. heal
    heal 25 January 2016 09: 24
    +7
    Aleksey Kudrin said this arrogantly: “Neither the presidential aides, nor I thought that there would be a new, so big collapse in oil prices - this created a new reality.”

    But in general, all of these cones can adequately suggest anything at all?

    In addition, cheap oil hurts across Russia, hinders its development

    To go nuts, how can cheap oil hold back Russia's development? Only in one case: if the country is a raw materials appendage. And the question is: why over the 16 years of rule you know-who, nothing has been done so that industry and not oil prices determine the development of the country?

    Over the past year, the price of oil has tripled; in return, investors were able to place the released funds on the American financial market at a symbolic 0,5 percent. (Moreover, in operations with oil, according to experts, they had at least 55 per annum.)

    What does this mean? The fact that the oil price was overestimated and set by speculators, but now the speculative part has fallen off and the oil price has become approximately what it should be. And since the Russian economy, at the whim of the guarantor and other authorities, depends on oil prices, then this is a speculative economy and there will be nothing good from it, which we have in the end.

    The conclusion was shocking - "a barrel of Brent brand oil is now cheaper than a barrel of ordinary water, which Russians buy for home or office coolers."

    Here's something only gasoline is getting cheaper in the USA, but for some reason it isn’t (well, at least it doesn’t go up in price ... until it goes up).

    It is no coincidence that responsible analysts talk about long-term low oil prices. Such estimates have been made recently by the head of the Central Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina, Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukaev, and other officials who own the market situation.

    Why do they have control of the market situation? And this after their "brilliant" predictions have been in the shit over and over again? And this is called "owning the market situation" ??? The United States really owns it.

    They recognize that the balance of supply and demand will come in 2016, but this will not fundamentally change prices.

    For oil - yes, but prices in Russia for everything will change dramatically. And by no means downward.
  10. aviator1913
    aviator1913 25 January 2016 09: 44
    +6
    When speculators inflated oil prices giving our budget not a feeble increase, no one complained about the oil needle and speculators, when speculators began to remove money from oil and resources, "THE SPECULATORS ARE GUILTY!" "CONSPIRACY" etc ...

    When these articles are about to end with conspiracies with oil, oil is a commodity that is sold on an exchange, the price of which is determined by speculators. Point. While we are selling resources, we will sit and wait by the sea for the weather, whether His Majesty will give us Extra $ or not.

    Complaining about the casino when you play roulette every day is stupid. At the same time, when the "card went" there are no complaints, but when you lose an apartment, the whole world is immediately to blame and Obama personally put his hand to your cards ...
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 25 January 2016 11: 37
      0
      Now they will simply destroy competitors, weak oil players, and when all this ends, oil prices will skyrocket again.
      1. aviator1913
        aviator1913 25 January 2016 12: 10
        +2
        And who do you think is a weak player? Oil is a quickly developed thing, especially in good conditions. Because as soon as the oil climbs up, weak players will emerge again.

        It’s pointless to wait for the rise in oil prices, the same as waiting at the roulette wheel, that red will come out red. It is necessary to live and work, not to rely heavily on the oil industry, and if the price has crept up, then this money should not be eaten up in the budget or distributed on a social network, but it is better to invest in the development of Russia. As an extra surplus, on which you can build 10 ports, or 1000 km of autobahns.
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 25 January 2016 16: 10
          0
          It’s better to put aside most of the pile - in case of any other crises.
  11. O. Bender
    O. Bender 25 January 2016 09: 53
    0
    As far as I know, the share of oil sales in Russia's GDP is not so great. They push through the price of gas, which is tied to the price of oil. Why not break this chain and keep the price of gas within the framework of ensuring a stable or small budget deficit and direct oil For refining domestically. Losing our place in the oil market? Growth in consumption, given lower fuel prices, partially compensates for the loss in exports, plus refined products can also be realized. Pressure on oil prices will not be able to withstand either pressers or those who press. Maybe it’s worth taking a step to side, let the npppp itself fall. And the budget here is a complete monopoly on alcohol tobacco oil gas forest nationalization of those who have gone into the dark, articles of the Criminal Code with confiscation of bribes for theft of economic crimes, the highest measure for trade in the manufacture of drugs, a progressive even super progressive tax on extra-profit and luxury. Fiction? No. Just all this contradicts the very principle of state structure The interests of the nouveau riche and their lobby in the legislative and executive branches. The new Stalin is needed. But this is almost fantastic ......
    1. aviator1913
      aviator1913 25 January 2016 10: 05
      +3
      In fact, oil is only a link in the chain of commodities that go downstream of it. These are gas, steel, fertilizers, minerals. And since the share of Russian commodity exports is very large, and they are all becoming much cheaper, exports are declining.

      The budget of Russia, which feeds doctors, police, teachers and the military, mainly consists of taxes paid by commodity export companies.
  12. O. Bender
    O. Bender 25 January 2016 10: 37
    +2
    We have a factory for the production of fertilizers, so they drive more products for export to the internal minuscule, which is expensive and actually almost no one. What do you think whose property it is? And where do the profit taxes go? And where is the profit? In the wallet .. ... uncle.
    1. Vadim237
      Vadim237 25 January 2016 12: 01
      +2
      Income taxes go to the treasury, and the rest of the funds the owner can dispose of as he wants - no one has the right to tell him where to invest.
  13. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 25 January 2016 11: 54
    +1
    Virtual reality played a trick on them. All these exchanges, indices, ratings, overshadowed their brains. You can not replace the real life of virtual. There is a temptation to believe that this world can be created and manipulated. Just as a germ makes its way through asphalt, so reality will always triumph over virtuality.
    1. voyaka uh
      voyaka uh 25 January 2016 12: 07
      +3
      Replace the word "virtuality" with "forecast for the future" or
      "hope for the future" and exchanges, futures, stocks will become clearer for you
      etc.
      For example, you planned a vacation in a year in Spain. He bye
      virtual. It costs (for example) 2000 euros. But money - so far - has not been accumulated for him.
      This is your 2017 vacation "futures". Maybe you will "redeem" him (for
      2000), maybe not ... fellow
  14. voyaka uh
    voyaka uh 25 January 2016 12: 01
    +3
    China and India - major oil importers -
    use low prices to educate their
    strategic reserves (following the example of the United States). Special
    China. the Chinese are filling up oil storage fantastic
    sizes, not sparing the currency, but saving for a "year of cheap oil"
    not tens of billions of dollars.
  15. fa2998
    fa2998 25 January 2016 12: 41
    0
    Quote: D-Master
    The spring of oil that I squeeze so hard through my knee will open up with the demolition of all the slats.

    And I would like to ask, if against the background of the collapse of oil prices in Russia, the price of gasoline is growing, then when this "spring of oil" is unclenched, then prices will also astronomically run up? recourse hi
    1. Roman 11
      Roman 11 25 January 2016 18: 56
      0
      Quote: fa2998
      And I would like to ask, if against the background of the collapse of oil prices in Russia, the price of gasoline is growing, then when this "spring of oil" is unclenched, then prices will also astronomically run up?

      The first time I saw a thimble live in 1985, I remember that incident very well. Since then, nothing has changed ...... This delirium tremens is very contagious - read O. Henry - A trust that burst! We have the best economy in the world, but for some reason idiots have been doing it since 1985. And at the same time, take the wealth of the country in its land, take an interest in professionals - Stolypin understood a lot about how to saturate the market with goods and how to pump up the estate money. And the sale of strategic raw materials for the dorm is all Kasygin, and you can understand it, you had to build communism on half the land, and what would the Ethiopian brothers do better than us.
  16. Belousov
    Belousov 25 January 2016 13: 05
    +4
    Well, Kudrin and Gref are still those prophetic economists, true successors of the Gaidar Forum. Here the question is different - why over the past 16 years NOTHING has been done to transfer the country's economy from the resource game to a normal structure? Why is it considered profitable for us only to extract and sell, and not create added value? The question is quite rhetorical. The main thing is that Putin likes this "activity" of the government ...
  17. Apache
    Apache 25 January 2016 17: 56
    -4
    yankees grabbed you by the balls
    1. Roman 11
      Roman 11 25 January 2016 18: 44
      0
      For which, for ostrich? Tah identity in Australia ...... The wealth of RUSSIA is not in some minerals that will not be rounded tomorrow or the day after tomorrow ..... and not even in Siberia - but in very large areas of arable land, ask Stolypin, he in the know, not like the current librarians who instead of engaging in economics are betting on oil quotes!
    2. Dimitrakis
      Dimitrakis 25 January 2016 20: 32
      0
      Your eggs have long been in a fist sailor’s, they will burst soon.
    3. Mordvin 3
      Mordvin 3 25 January 2016 20: 45
      +2
      Quote: Apache
      yankees grabbed you by the balls

      You look after your eggs, as if they didn’t burst.
  18. A_Alex
    A_Alex 26 January 2016 12: 21
    0
    I think it is necessary to destroy the very cause of the United States! And the world will live easier
  19. Crown
    Crown 27 January 2016 18: 34
    0
    All these Kudrins, Grefs, Ulyukaevs would be forbidden to them to enter Russia