Settling in the land of the Allied and friendly, the ancient Greek military leader Iphicrates, who was considered one of the best Athenian commanders, carefully surrounded him with a moat and tyn. And to the question “what are you afraid of?” He answered: “There is no worse than when the commander says:“ I didn’t expect it! ”
Therefore, even in allied relations with other countries, Russia must always be prepared for the fact that these countries will betray her, which is eloquently talked about historical examples and current events in Syria.
AGAIN NOT READY
Russia has always had to fend off two enemies - western and eastern. The western enemy came to us from Sweden, Lithuania, Poland, France, England, Germany and other European countries. The eastern enemy came to us first in the guise of the Mongols and Tatars, then the Turks and, finally, the Japanese. At the same time, Russia was never ready for the next looming war and suffered initial failures in order to then win at the cost of unbearably terrible losses.
In order not to pay a high price for victory in the war and not stand on the brink of national survival, the state is obliged to develop behavioral strategies in case of armed confrontation with other countries.
Of course, the imperative of Russia's behavioral strategy towards other countries should be to ensure peace and prevent hostile confrontation. Russia should cooperate with various countries, including unfriendly-minded countries and blocs (partnership for peace), fully support the existing ones (Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS international association) and create new alliances, involving more and more members. Nevertheless, we repeat once again, it should be remembered and be prepared for the fact that both current and future allies of Russia can always violate the allied treaty, go into the camp of enemies, sell and betray Russia.
In the previous article “If there is a war. Moscow's behavioral strategies in the Euro-Atlantic direction ”(“ NVO ”No. 46 for 2015 a year) we talked about how Russia can withstand the countries of the NATO bloc, and this article will discuss Russia's behavioral strategies towards the countries of the Far East.
GENERAL BEHAVIORAL STRATEGIES
Common to the behavioral strategies of Russia with the countries of the Far East in the event of armed conflict should be a focus on short-term hostilities. The experience of the Japanese-Chinese (1937 – 1945), Korean (1950 – 1953) and Vietnamese (1957 – 1975) wars, as well as the civil wars in Cambodia (1967 – 1975), Laos (1960 – 1973), Burma (XNXXXXXXX), Lama (XNXX), Laos (1948), Laos (2012), Lao (1972), Lao (1996), Lao (1945), Lao (1949), Lao (1948), Lao (1960) and in the Philippines (XNUMX – XNUMX), as well as the wars of independence in Indonesia (XNUMX – XNUMX) and Malaya (XNUMX – XNUMX), showed that the population of the Far East is ready to bear for a long time. At the same time, partisan formations and other irregular structures can effectively act against the regular armed forces for a number of years, constantly replenishing their ranks with local residents. Therefore, with the outbreak of hostilities, it is necessary to immediately bring down all military might on the country in conflict and, after the short-lived defeat of its regular troops, immediately make peace on terms acceptable to the parties.
Among the armies of the countries of the Far East, the armies of the People’s Republic of China, India, the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Japan, and Vietnam possess real power. Therefore, let us consider in more detail the behavioral strategies of Russia with these countries.
The People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) ranks first in terms of numbers (2255 thousand) and third in the ranking of the most powerful armies in the world. In addition, China is a nuclear and missile power.
Although the military budget of China in 10 is less than in the USA, it is still one of the largest in the world. Over the past 10 years, PLA’s annual expenditures have more than tripled, from 200 billion to more than 720 billion yuan.
China's military power also has its own characteristics. The largest army in the world is equipped with outdated or rapidly becoming obsolete weapons.
At present, China is implementing a program to equip the army with modern high-precision weaponsgiving priority to the development of rocket forces, as well as the navy and air force. On the other hand, China’s economic growth has slowed. This is undoubtedly due to the general decline in the global economy, but be that as it may, the slowdown in China’s economic growth has a negative effect on the program to re-equip the Armed Forces with modern weapons and military equipment.
The Vietnam War (1979) revealed, in addition to the lack of modern weapons for the PLA, weak command training and low mobility of units.
As is known, the most numerous armies are far from always the most combat-ready. A lot of time and effort is spent on their deployment, redeployment, management, comprehensive support. Therefore, behavioral strategies in the war with such armies consist of highly maneuverable rapid actions of ground forces brigades, strikes with precision weapons on troop clusters, and conducting air-land-amphibious assault operations.
China’s nuclear forces are not such a deadly threat. For example, Russia is capable of neutralizing them with a preemptive strike with precision weapons. The cybernetic capabilities of China pose a great danger. In cyberwar China is able to resist any country in the world.
China’s military-political potential is eased by existing contradictions and tensions with Japan, Vietnam, Pakistan, India and other countries on territorial issues.
Russia's strategic course in relations with China in the near future is mutually beneficial cooperation and partnership. Of course, China will never defend Russian interests, however, increasing the US power and economic potential in the Asia-Pacific region is forcing China to look for allies to counter US expansion. In this regard, the Russian-Chinese alliance is in the common interest.
Serious force is the army of India. In terms of numbers, the current army of India ranks third (1325 thousand people) in the world, and ranked fourth among the most powerful armies in the world. Since 1974, India is a member of the Nuclear Club.
Currently, there is a rapid increase in Indian military spending. According to the Director of Informational Technologies Department of the PLA, Major General Yin Kyaw, this is due to two main reasons. First, it is the growth of the economy. In the past 15 years, the economy has grown rapidly, although it has somewhat slowed since 2011. In terms of GDP, India is able to overtake the UK and France. Secondly, India is making great efforts to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council. This status makes high demands - it is necessary to have a high diplomatic and economic position, in particular, the country must have the appropriate military capabilities to maintain the status of a great power. India’s local mission is to maintain military superiority over Pakistan. Such factors have led to the fact that over the past 10 years, India has doubled the volume of its military spending.
To increase its military potential, India is trying to buy more modern weapons and equipment from other countries. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India has become the world's largest importer of weapons and military equipment since 2006.
As a result, the weak side of the Indian Armed Forces has become their dependence on foreign spare parts for modern weapons and military equipment imported by India.
At present, India is lagging behind in the development of high-tech military production; it lacks highly skilled engineers and workers needed to create a powerful military-industrial complex. Therefore, in the long term, India’s combat capability will depend on the import of modern weapons and military equipment, since independent development of the main types of weapons takes on average 15 years, and high-tech types of weapons and military equipment such as fighters and submarines - 20 and more. Russia needs to make full use of this factor, supplying India with domestic IWT.
In relations with India, Russia should develop strategic cooperation, which increases the military-political weight of both countries. This cooperation should not be directed against anyone else, but at the same time it is designed to deter any aggressor.
In addition, Russia should make full use of the role of the peace mediator in the difficult relations between India and its neighboring countries, primarily Pakistan, as well as the PRC, Nepal, etc.
In terms of numbers, the current army of the Republic of Korea ranks sixth in the world (650 thousand people), and in number of reserve troops South Korea ranks first (4,5 million people). In the ranking of the strongest armies, the South Korean army ranks ninth.
Tensions with the DPRK prompts South Korea to spend 15% of the budget on the army (11 is the largest defense budget) and to maintain compulsory military service for men. The country ranks second in terms of the number of military personnel per capita in the world after North Korea.
From time to time, South Korea sends its troops abroad, helping the American forces. Since the beginning of 2001, South Korea has deployed 24-thousandth army in the Middle East region to support the war on terrorism, and since 2007, the South Korean military has been deployed to strengthen UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon.
The United States has a significant contingent of troops in South Korea to defend it in the event of East Asian military conflicts, primarily with North Korea. Currently, approximately 28,5 thousand US troops are deployed in South Korea.
The Republic of Korea is a threat to Russia only in conjunction with the United States. Therefore, Russia should avoid direct armed confrontation with South Korea and wage a proxy war with it by the forces of the DPRK.
Despite the fact that the DPRK army is the fourth largest in the world in terms of numbers (1190 thousand people), in the ranking of the strongest armies in the world it has a “modest” 35 place.
The weak points of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) are: limited fuel resources, which allow fighting to take no longer than a month; the impossibility of prolonged warfare due to insufficient food supplies; archaic weapons and military equipment that is not able to effectively counteract the armed forces of developed countries.
However, KPA is feared all over the world. This is mainly due to its multiplicity: more than 1 million people are ready to defend it, while the other several million can be called up from the reserve in a short time. In the course of the Korean War (1950 – 1953), the DPRK showed itself as a very tough, stubborn, disciplined adversary, insensitive to casualties. In addition, it is assumed that North Korea has from 12 to 15 nuclear charges and various missile carriers to them. True, experts doubt that Pyongyang has mastered the technology, giving him the opportunity to create a small-sized nuclear charge for installation on missiles. For this, in their opinion, it will take him a few more years.
Check the effectiveness of the army of North Korea is possible only in a state of real war. However, this is feared throughout the world. No state, including the United States, does not want to unleash a conflict with Pyongyang.
Russia's behavioral strategy towards the DPRK should be based on non-engagement in confrontation with it, as well as on solving the DPRK nuclear missile issue in the framework of the six-party talks.
The Japanese army has already received the right to conduct combat operations outside the national territory. Reuters Photos
The Japanese army has considerable power, which, despite its relative small size (20 is the largest army in the number of troops - 239 thousand), is 10 in the ranking of the most powerful armies in the world.
Japan’s military spending is legally limited to 1% of GDP, but the country's GDP is so large ($ 6 trillion, three times that of Russia) that 1% of it allowed the creation of an extremely powerful military machine. Especially it concerns fleet, which is one of the five largest naval forces in the world. Initially, almost all the weapons of the Self-Defense Forces of Japan were American-made, but now its increasing share is of national production, the exception is only aviation, and only then.
Of particular danger are the US military bases in Japan. In Japan, 50, thousands of US troops and the 7 fleet of the United States are permanently stationed.
Despite the fact that the area of the territory of Russia in 45 times the area of Japan, in Japan only 20 million people live less than in Russia. Therefore, the reserve of the Self-Defense Forces of Japan is significant. Of the 1, subject to annual conscription, million people join the army up to 100 thousand, the rest fit for military service are trained by an extra-military order (recruit reserve). The militarization of the population through schools, universities, print, etc. increases the stock of military-trained soldiers and officers.
The tradition of the Japanese army was the requirement of the Bushido code - to faithfully serve the lord and give his life for him. In 1944, during World War II, in Japan, the formation of detachments of suicide bombers became widespread in the face of the threat of its occupation. They were created in the air force, the navy, in the paratroopers and ground forces. The actions of suicide bombers were massive, which was due to the cult of self-sacrifice, which dominated the samurai for many centuries. The Kamikazes inflicted heavy losses on the Americans, but ultimately their actions did not affect the course and outcome of the war. Nevertheless, one should pay tribute to the high moral and volitional level of the Japanese soldiers, their readiness for self-sacrifice.
As for command, on the whole, the Japanese officer is well aware of military affairs: he is able to act in field situations, is able to hold his part in his hands and is capable of bold and decisive implementation of the combat order. However, the political development of officers is weak. They are deprived of voting rights, which eliminates them from active external participation in political life.
The weak side of the Japanese army is its “lack of fire”, since after World War II it participated only in peacekeeping operations. Until recently, there was a ban on the conduct of hostilities by the Japan Self-Defense Forces abroad, but this ban has been lifted since 2015.
The disadvantage of the Self-Defense Forces of Japan is also poorly developed transport aircraft, which does not allow them to conduct large landing operations.
At present, there are very tense relations between Japan and the PRC (due to territorial disputes) and the DPRK (due to Japan’s cooperation with the United States and South Korea). Russia should use these tense relations for its own purposes, attaching to the aggressive attacks of Japan on territorial and other issues the necessary vector of development.
Russia's behavioral strategy toward Japan should fully exploit the weaknesses of the Japan Self-Defense Forces, namely, their lack of experience in conducting large-scale hostilities, the inability to quickly deploy troops and their insufficient mobility. In this regard, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation must carefully plan, prepare and, if necessary, conduct large-scale operational and strategic operations against the Self-Defense Forces of Japan, using their advantage in the ability to drop troops and their maneuvering qualities. In addition, it is necessary to envisage how to “neutralize” the American military contingent stationed in Japan.
The Vietnamese People's Army (VNA), although it ranks 10 in number (484 thousand people), but in number of reserve troops is in second place (4 million people), and in the ranking of the most powerful armies in the world is in 23-m .
VNA has a rich experience in military operations, accumulated primarily during the Vietnam War (1964 – 1975), as well as in the first (1946 – 1954), the second (1957 – 1975) and the third (1975 – 1990) Indo-Chinese wars and during the Chinese -Vietnamese armed clashes (1979 – 1990). In these armed conflicts, the Vietnamese soldiers showed a high moral and volitional level, readiness for self-sacrifice.
The weakness of the VNA is its outdated weapons and military equipment, mainly of Soviet and Chinese origin.
In relations with Vietnam, Russia should develop a strategic partnership in accordance with the Declaration, signed in March 2001. It is necessary to deepen its influence, which in Soviet times was quite large. In this regard, the restoration of the military base in Cam Ranh contributes to the strengthening of military-political cooperation, on the one hand, and strengthening the defense capability of the two countries, on the other.
MAJOR THREAT TO RUSSIA
Finishing the conversation about Russia's behavioral strategies with respect to other countries, it should be noted that the main threat for Russia comes not from them, but from internal enemies. The great Russian military historian Anton Kersnovsky wrote about this, analyzing the causes of the Russian catastrophe in February 1917: “You can and should talk about the machinations of the enemies of Russia. It is important that these intrigues found too favorable soil. The intrigues were English, the gold was German, Jewish ... but the insignificance and traitors were their own, Russian. Without them, Russia would not be afraid of all the gold in the world and all the machinations of the netherworld. ”
At the same time, it should be noted that during the Great Patriotic War, despite the hardest, catastrophic defeats at the front in its initial period, the “fifth column” in the Soviet rear did not arise. One reason for this, oddly enough, was the repression of 1937, which destroyed all potential leaders of any resistance to the Stalinist regime.
On this occasion, Stalin’s closest ally Vyacheslav Molotov told the writer Felix Chuev: “The 1937 year was necessary ... the remnants of enemies from different directions existed and in the face of imminent danger of fascist aggression could unite. We owe our thirty-seventh year that during the war we did not have a “fifth column”.
Recent history of Russia has confirmed the validity of these words. The whole country could observe how the “human rights activist” Sergey Kovalev helped Chechen bandits, urging Russian soldiers to lay down their arms. How were the meetings at which our army, which fought in Chechnya, poured mud. How false reports were published about the atrocities of federal forces against civilians. Like other public and political figures of the Russian Federation, they spoke at international forums, branding shame on their homeland, leading a bloody struggle against illegal armed groups. The result is the defeat in the first Chechen campaign, the shame of the Khasavyurt agreements, tens of thousands of civilians killed and driven into slavery into “independent Ichkeria”, the attack of Chechen fighters on Dagestan in 1999 and the outbreak of the second Chechen war.
Unfortunately, even now the “fifth column” is trying to influence society, suggesting the senselessness and inexpediency of the fulfillment of the constitutional duty to defend the fatherland. The result of this impact is impressive. For example, according to the General Staff, there are more than 230 thousand people in the country who evade conscription - that is, almost as many as in a year they are called up for military service.
Moreover, there are quite a few potential deserters among the servicemen of the Russian army. Maxim Glikin, editor of the policy department of the Vedomosti newspaper, frankly said this, recalling his service in the army: “If foreign aggressors appeared, we would abandon the machine guns and change into a citizen at the far approaches of the enemy to our military unit”.
How many glycines are now in the Russian army is unknown. This can be found only in a large-scale war. And so that this does not turn out to be a catastrophe, the government of the country must take all measures to eradicate the negative attitude of society towards the Armed Forces, which has been imposed since Yeltsin's times.
To do this, you can use foreign experience ("and the enemy is allowed to learn"). For example, on May 16 of 1918, the United States Congress passed an amendment to the Spying Act, which is still in force, according to which, those who "speak orally or in writing in an unloyal, sordid, rude or offensive tone about the form of government or the United States Constitution, or the Armed Forces "faces up to 20 years in prison.
POWER OF THE POINT
In the modern world, only he is worthy of respect, who has the power.
“They love the strong in the world,” says Sergey Valtsev, a candidate of psychological sciences. - The United States dropped a bomb on Japan, hundreds of thousands of civilians were killed. Russia condemned this step as the brutal extermination of civilians. Years have passed. Japan is the most loyal ally of the United States in the East, and Japan refuses to sign a peace treaty with Russia, still being formally at war. It seems that if Russia dropped a nuclear bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, then Japan would have been an ally of Russia. ”
In the modern world there are no moral rules, laws. There is only the right to force. “Who created the Russian Empire, turning the semi-Asiatic kingdom into the most influential, most dominant, great European power? Only army bayonet strength. Not before our culture, not before our bureaucratic church, not before our wealth and prosperity, the light bowed. He admired our strength, ”the former Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Czarist Russia, Count Sergei Witte, claimed in his memoirs.
Russia's strategy was successful only when there were two main ally behind it - the army and the navy. Therefore, the speeches of some domestic politicians, as well as the activities of various political non-governmental non-profit organizations funded from abroad and advocating for the abolition of military recruitment and the disbanding of the Russian Armed Forces, can be equated with sabotage activities in our country.
“We want to survive and fight ... - or do we want our skin hung on the wall? We have a choice here, ”said Russian President Vladimir Putin frankly.
ON PLANS TO DESTROY RUSSIA
Russia has always been hated for its power and sovereignty. “We are not loved for our vastness,” said Emperor Alexander III about relations between Russia and the world. And if Russia does not become one day, it will be the most pleasant world news, especially since many countries of the world are eagerly looking at our natural resources.
Plans for the destruction of Russia existed and there are many. “We have destroyed the Soviet Union, we will also destroy Russia. You have no chances, ”said Zbigniew Brzezinski, the leading ideologue of US foreign policy, frankly.
At the same time, despite the failures of Napoleon, Hitler and others, foreign countries do not leave hopes for the destruction of Russia by military means. This is evidenced by declassified military plans of the United States and Britain.
How other countries will wage war against us can be found in the book of Italian General Giulio Douai, “Dominance in the Air”, whose work and doctrine are studied in all higher military educational institutions of developed foreign countries:
“War is a serious matter, especially now. In it on the map is the fate of entire countries. To win is to be able to impose your will on the enemy. For this, it is necessary to break all his material and moral forces of resistance. This can be achieved only by causing the enemy such a sum of damage, which he is no longer able to withstand.
The material and moral resistance of a nation is enormous. The amount of damage that must be inflicted on her in order to be victorious must also be huge. And if this is so, then the difference between permissible and unauthorized damage, between human and inhuman, between civilized and wild is pure scholasticism ... To achieve victory, any means is good, legal, allowed, fair. "
To these statements of Douai, you can add the recent revelation of the commander of US land forces in Europe, Lieutenant General Frederick Hodges: "We are not interested in a fair fight with anyone."
28 September 2015 of the year, speaking at the anniversary 70 of the UN General Assembly, Vladimir Putin, in particular, regarding countries that have created a conflict in the Middle East, said: “Aggressive external interference led to the fact that instead of reforms, state institutions, and the very way of life was simply unceremoniously destroyed. Instead of the triumph of democracy and progress - violence, poverty, social catastrophe, and human rights, including the right to life, are not put into anything. I just want to ask those who created such a situation: do you at least understand now what you have done? ”
I would like to ask domestic pacifists: do you at least understand what they can do?