Military Review

Big Middle Eastern trap

33
President Barack Obama delivered a final address to the Congress. His term of office ends soon, and many analysts consider the lifting of sanctions against Iran to be the most significant achievement of his administration. On the other hand, the US Middle East policy, which has led to a sharp fourfold drop in oil prices, is still a mystery: whether this is the new strategy of Washington in the world, or just another zigzag of the so-called “controlled chaos” policy. The Middle East may become a “chaos” trap for someone, but for whom? That is the question…




In Roman Babayan’s “Right to Vote” program (from 12.01.2016, TVC), American experts shared insider information that the US is no longer interested in the Middle East. Then we can say that Washington to some extent return to the policy of isolationism. This is evidenced by the phenomenon of Donald Trump with his idea of ​​"returning America home." Trump is evidence of the undoubted drift of US policy: part of the ruling class is tired of the burden of world leadership. This drift will find a place in the politics of Washington, regardless of how the fate of US presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Then in the near future the USA will become a “regional power”, and the Pacific and Atlantic oceans will become its influence regions. To this end, Washington is now actively creating the Pacific (without China) and Transatlantic (without Russia) partnerships. But the Trans-Indian partnership is not in the project! It turns out that the United States leaves the Indian Ocean, and then the Middle East is not really interesting for them! And they leave him to the mercy of fate, and do not mind plunging into the chaos of war in order to catch fish in its muddy waters.

Then it is clear why Washington demonstratively throws its long-standing partner in the region - Saudi Arabia, as if suggesting Iran to take it into its hands. After all, international sanctions are being lifted from Iran. True, the United States imposes at the same time ballistic sanctions against Iran, but they are one-sided, and are a weak consolation for Riyadh.

At the same time, Riyadh itself conducts a more than strange policy: it executes the Shiite preacher Nimr al-Nimr, and this is a clear provocation towards Iran. Countries are breaking off diplomatic relations, and the State Department dismissively states that these "guys" should solve their problems themselves. Riyadh responds with a certain degree of challenge: “he is not interested in the opinion of Washington regarding the kingdom’s relations with Iran.”

The world media blames the oddities of the Saudis on some kind of panic in their royal house, after all there are more 1000 princes ... There are rational explanations: Riyadh aggravates the situation in the region to cause an anti-Iranian reaction of the United States. Only, but he does not want a war with Iran and is afraid of ...

Washington’s plans to create the Transatlantic and Pacific partnerships coincided with the US coming out, for the first time after a long period, to the world oil market, and with shale oil. The first batches of this oil have already begun to flow to Europe. It is relatively expensive, and is faced with cheap Middle Eastern oil in the markets. If the US intends to use shale oil as an energy weapon, to conquer the Atlantic and Pacific markets, they need to remove competitors with cheap oil, for example, by making a war between them. The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran will block the access of oil from the Persian Gulf to world markets, and will allow them to capture US shale oil.

Once this scheme was worked out on the Iraq-Iran war, and today it is being imposed on Saudi Arabia and Iran. Since the SA is obviously weaker, but equipped with more modern American weapons, the United States, after a pause, will support the Saudis, relying on their bases in the region. Weapons, intelligence, however, not participating in the conflict openly. This is the traditional US policy: to support the weak against the stronger, so that they kill each other as long as possible.

So far, there is no desired reaction for the USA. Perhaps the awareness of such an unenviable perspective caused tensions between the United States and the Saudis, and they decided to try to flood this strategy of Washington with their cheap oil, despite financial losses. The budget of Saudi Arabia is bursting at the seams, but the country has foreign exchange reserves. At the same time, the producers of shale oil in the United States, Russia and other oil-producing countries also incur serious costs. And they are all set against the Saudis ... What if this is also a strategy planned by Washington?

Iranian diplomacy is considered, by the way, to be very qualified, and it also does not take rash steps. The Iranian Foreign Minister in Davos answered the direct question about the conflict with the SA: there will be no war between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Indeed, Tehran may find itself in a war on two fronts: Saudi in pro-Iraqi Southern Iraq, and Turkish in Northern Iraq, where ISIS is not yet defeated, behind which Turkey stands. Everyone knows this, but the Western allies of Turkey do not see it point-blank.

The obviousness of the strategy of a great power does not make it impossible, because it is being forced, in this case, by all the power of the United States. In principle, it is possible to provoke Iran, until they achieve the necessary reaction, under the promise of Washington, part of the loyal princes of Saudi Arabia, and then to fall upon it with all its might, like Saddam Hussein.

For now, the Saudis refuse to blindly follow orders from Washington, and fill the world with cheap oil, but the provocative execution of al-Nimr is a disturbing bell. Washington has many secret levers of influence on the Saudi princes. In its continuation, they can organize an incident Belli (reason for war) between Saudi Arabia and Iran, for example, shoot down a passenger plane, the region is crammed with modern weapons ...

In the event of an escalation of the conflict, Russia will have to support Iran, and then an indirect war between the USA and Russia in the Middle East theater of operations can be easily seen. All wars will eventually end in some world, but the region’s largest oil-producing countries will be in ruins, and the world market will be captured by US shale oil.

... When world politicians make statements about their commitment to peace, let's not forget that Big Politics is often accompanied by a big lie.
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 22 January 2016 06: 44
    10
    President Barack Obama made his last address to Congress.


    The word "with the latter" is especially pleasing. At least somewhat positive.

    ... when world politicians make a commitment to peace,


    So get ready for war.
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 22 January 2016 09: 57
      +5
      Yes, not so much of this shale oil to directly provide the whole world with it.
      1. Vadim237
        Vadim237 22 January 2016 10: 23
        +1
        Moreover, most of the shale oil companies went bankrupt, and the rest on the way, together with oil producers - the process of destroying competitors is in full swing.
    2. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 22 January 2016 11: 20
      +4
      [[quote = aszzz888] [quote] President Barack Obama made his last appeal to Congress. [/ quote]

      The word "with the latter" is especially pleasing. At least somewhat positive.

      Yes, the jester knows whether it is worth rejoicing or not. There, whoever you put in, is still a warrior.
      If we already know what can be roughly expected from a "swarthy", then what to expect from the next scumbag?
  2. D-Master
    D-Master 22 January 2016 06: 46
    +9
    America never does anything just like that and it is a country with a dual control policy. Therefore, seriously talking about the departure of Americans from the Middle East is unrealistic. In addition, there is always geographically present the main player, Israel. And the main families of the world, the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds, are Jews, therefore Their close attention will always be focused on this region.
    1. Shark Lover
      Shark Lover 22 January 2016 08: 47
      +2
      Barely found Israel on the map.
    2. wax
      wax 22 January 2016 12: 27
      +4
      But if you look at the globe, and taking into account the population density, it immediately becomes clear that for two centuries the whole "game" without a noticeable decrease in the ambitions of the Anglo-Saxons has been conducted to seize the "pie" called Russia.
  3. parusnik
    parusnik 22 January 2016 06: 46
    +1
    Once this scheme was worked out in the Iraq-Iran war, and today it is being imposed on Saudi Arabia and Iran.... The leaders of these countries said they were not interested in the war ... Slowly, but relations between the KSA and Iran will improve .. Not until warm, but there will be no obvious opposition ..
  4. 33 Watcher
    33 Watcher 22 January 2016 07: 10
    +8
    I don’t know what they plan in the USA. But one aspect pleases, war has become harder to provoke. And an example of this: We did not cling to Turkey, Iran did not cling to the SA. A lot of conflicts, wars on the planet, but interstate among them, are not observed. Whatever anyone is saying.
    Maybe the truth is there is still a chance for this world, maybe we can wait ...? repeat
    1. atalef
      atalef 22 January 2016 07: 45
      +2
      Quote: Observer 33
      , Iran, did not grapple with the CA.

      A, something that (of course, except for VO readers) - seriously believed that there would be a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran?
      Iran is still not so sick on the head to climb against Saudi Arabia (which is a pity)
      1. 33 Watcher
        33 Watcher 22 January 2016 08: 00
        +8
        But for some reason I’m not sorry, even though I am a reader of VO ... tongue
        Enough of the wars already, those that are 20 years old we will rake. We’ll be all together, you, too, have done a mess, enough for everyone.
        In general, it is very interesting to hear from you regret that Iran is friends with the head. Did you miss the war, or what? You seem to have enough without Irna ..? request
        1. atalef
          atalef 22 January 2016 08: 05
          0
          Quote: Observer 33
          But for some reason I’m not sorry, even though I am a reader of VO ... tongue
          Enough of the wars already, those that are 20 years old we will rake. We’ll be all together, you, too, have done a mess, enough for everyone.

          The war with Iran is a clear increase in oil prices.
          1. 33 Watcher
            33 Watcher 22 January 2016 08: 20
            +4
            Well, it’s tough, somehow ... We somehow, not across the ocean all the same, in order to regulate prices this way laughing
            It is tempting of course, but tough ... laughing
            And the fate of Syria and our counterpart there is unpredictable, well, their prices are tolerable.
            You certainly know better there, but I’m even afraid to imagine what would happen if, in addition, there is Iran and the Saudis, they will start to fight.
            I am for peace! Peace for everyone! fellow
          2. apro
            apro 22 January 2016 12: 40
            0
            Quote: atalef
            The war with Iran is a clear increase in oil prices.

            In the light of current realities, it is not a fact. Yes, and they will not be at war, they will not mature yet.
    2. Saffron
      Saffron 22 January 2016 10: 36
      +3
      The main thing is that there are fewer personalities and leaders in the world like Saakashvilli and Poroshenko, who were told to face and they are ready to start chaos, to lay down thousands of "their" citizens for the sake of someone's instructions ...
  5. surrozh
    surrozh 22 January 2016 07: 34
    +6
    A private conclusion from the general theory of the "golden billion": wars and inter-religious conflicts are everywhere, only in North America, covered by a powerful fleet, prosperity. Judging by the financial system, the theory is viable: all countries invest in the dollar, since it is the dollar that is quiet, calm and comfortable, although it is provided not so much economically as politically.
    1. Saffron
      Saffron 22 January 2016 10: 40
      +2
      This is the US strategy - to show the whole world that they have created an island of tranquility and their currency is the most reliable, and let there be chaos around (they try hard in this and many close-minded people help them)
  6. APASUS
    APASUS 22 January 2016 07: 52
    +1
    Americans can gain control of oil reserves simply by breaking Saudi Arabia into several states and each of the newly formed ones will ask for friends and want protection. The Iranian nuclear problem is not just solved.
    The question is how they do it.
    1. atalef
      atalef 22 January 2016 08: 08
      0
      Quote: APASUS
      Americans can gain control of oil reserves simply by splitting Saudi Arabia into several states and each of the newly formed to ask for friends and want protection

      Why would they break up CA?
      Oil control? Why would they control her, she has enough of her own, and now she is worth a penny.

      Quote: APASUS
      The solution to the Iranian nuclear issue is not just.

      Why? It is not possible to keep Iran under sanctions, especially since it has fulfilled its obligations, and the world needs cheap oil (and Iran will give it 0, and the promise to bring gas to Europe is also worth a lot).
      1. APASUS
        APASUS 22 January 2016 18: 23
        0
        Quote: atalef
        Why would they break up CA? Oil control? Why would they control her, she has enough of her own, and now she is worth a penny.

        The SA is the main ally in the region and has recently shown its character. I don’t think that the Americans want to get involved in military operations on the side of the SA in the region. The religious leaders are the initiative of the SA, the Americans act more subtly.
        Quote: atalef
        Why? It is not possible to keep Iran under sanctions, especially since it has fulfilled its obligations, and the world needs cheap oil (and Iran will give it 0, and the promise to bring gas to Europe is also worth a lot).

        Cuba has been under sanctions for 50 years and nothing, but Iran can not be so much?
        Iran was ready to fulfill its obligations before, only all the details were in detail, who was the first .............. and suddenly the USA began to arrange everything. Suddenly, because even Israel and the SA expressed their dissatisfaction, nothing foreshadowed such a quick denouement before that.
  7. dummy
    dummy 22 January 2016 08: 01
    14
    Near-economic nonsense. The author wanted to wrap up another journalistic intrigue. Shale oil to Europe ?! Have you seen shale oil? This is jelly - no existing European oil refinery can process it. Who will buy it there? America sells conventional West Texas oil, which it simply began to produce again after the lifting of the 1971 ban on its production. If the author does not know the story, then it is worth recalling that America’s power was built on oil production, namely the American oil giants are considered the most powerful monopolies. And the current drop in oil prices is not caused by the Saudis. He who has eyes, let him see. Take statistics on oil production - the Saudis did not increase production, the Americans and Iraq increased production. All falls in oil prices do not occur in European times - prices fall when Europe is already asleep - this America regularly lowers them. Therefore, the words that America abandoned the Middle East are the wishes of a novice chess player. There the party goes at the level of world champions.
    1. atalef
      atalef 22 January 2016 08: 14
      +2
      Quote: Dummy
      coloeconomic delirium. The author wanted to wrap up another journalistic intrigue. Shale oil to Europe ?! Have you seen shale oil?

      Yes !
      Quote: Dummy
      This is jelly - no existing European refinery can process it

      Another tale, in America it is processed without problems, but Europe can’t?
      Quote: Dummy
      America sells conventional West Texas oil, which it simply began to produce again after the lifting of the 1971 ban on its production

      Another tale, there was no ban on oil production, there was a ban on exports.
      Quote: Dummy
      If the author does not know the story, then it is worth recalling that America’s power was built on oil production, namely the American oil giants are considered the most powerful monopolies.

      There are no oil monopolies in America. In general, the concept of MONOPOLIES (in the plural.) With respect to one product, enters into some discord with the very definition of the word MONOPOLIES
      Monopoly (from the Greek. Μονο - one and πωλέω - I sell) - is a large enterprise that controls the production and marketing of one or more types of products; this is such a game in which there is no competition in the market and one company operates

      Quote: Dummy
      And the current drop in oil prices is not caused by the Saudis

      Of course, all countries (including Russia) - maximized production
      Quote: Dummy
      . All falls in oil prices do not occur in European times - prices fall when Europe is already asleep - this America regularly lowers them.

      Another tale, one of the main platforms for oil trading - London
      Quote: Dummy
      Therefore, the words that America abandoned the Middle East are the wishes of a novice chess player

      But that's for sure
    2. Victor Kamenev
      22 January 2016 09: 06
      +2
      Iraq has not yet entered the world oil market, the United States sent only the first tanker to Europe, Russia did not increase production, who then increased it? The main silence is that Saudi oil is the cheapest in the world, so it critically affects the price of oil on the world market, and only the CA can wage a price oil war for some time, due to the lowest cost of its production. Many experts write about this, I do not pretend to their laurels.
  8. 31rus
    31rus 22 January 2016 08: 02
    0
    Dear, it is not as easy to "play off" Iran and the CA as it seems at first glance, and the United States will not be able to do this without influence in the region itself, the main countries of the region, besides Iran and CA, are Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Syria. which of them is not interested in the war, because this will again lead to serious changes and not only the oil rate, even if we take the SA on the sides of the conflict, will support Israel, Qatar, possibly Egypt, Iran will support Syria, the Lebanese movements Russia, Turkey will clearly be wait, so think about what this conflict threatens the world with in case of war Everyone understands perfectly well the United States wants to kill two birds with one stone and the CA and Iran, it will blaze from India to the Atlantic and Europe will grab
    1. atalef
      atalef 22 January 2016 08: 20
      0
      Quote: 31rus
      Dear, it is not as easy to "play off" Iran and the CA as it seems at first glance, and the United States will not be able to do this without influence in the region itself,

      And the USA doesn’t need it
      Quote: 31rus
      these are Turkey, Israel, Iraq, Jordan, Syria

      Forget about Syria, its influence is in the red. Israel would probably want a war (the SA and Iran, but alas), the rest do not play the role.
      First of all, Iran does not want war.
      Quote: 31rus
      Lebanese movements Russia,

      And why in many. number? What are these movements? In addition, Russia will not be able to support Hezbollah a priori for many reasons, and the main thing is that this will lead to a sharp conflict with Israel, and Russia will definitely not conflict with Israel over Hezbollah, I'm not saying how it will be perceived in Lebanon itself. Where Hezbollah (Shiites) is only part of society.

      Quote: 31rus
      Everyone understands that the United States wants to kill two birds with one stone and SA and Iran,

      What for ?
  9. Victor Kamenev
    22 January 2016 08: 53
    +5
    For some reason, a priori, they consider that Big Politics is like a natural course of events, since Iran is against, and the CA is against, then the question is closed. And this is after the Ukrainian events, when several years ago it was impossible to imagine that in the center of Europe, the United States would construct a pro-fascist regime, even when, how many years ago, intellectuals in Kiev shouted that Bandera were insignificantly few, where do you see them? And today, all Kiev anti-fascist political scientists flee around the world and warn, but they are not heard well! And in Kiev, Bandera readings are already taking place!

    ISIS cannot strangely defeat all world powers, but this does not cause questions.

    The world is changing, globally, and we need to follow the hands of world players, and not rely on the status quo, which rests on Jordan, Egypt and Iran. It will be a great success if it is not possible to stir up civil strife, but we must fight for it, and not just pray.
  10. Volzhanin
    Volzhanin 22 January 2016 08: 55
    +1
    Some kind of inconsistency. It turns out that such alignment of Russia is simply indescribably beneficial? If the mattresses are dreaming of filling the geyropa with shale, will Russia still have a share to fill the whole of Asia and the geyropu with oil? And why should mattresses ruin our direct competitors? So that oil prices jump and Russia is in chocolate? This cannot be, because the only longed-for, but unattainable goal of mattress nuggismism is to strangle Russia.
  11. Mikhail m
    Mikhail m 22 January 2016 08: 58
    +1
    The war between Saudi Arabia and Iran will block the access of oil from the Persian Gulf to world markets, and will allow them to seize US shale oil.

    But will Russia and South America only look at this disgrace? Or will they take their own? I am inclined to the second option.
    In addition, the United States does not cover its needs with its own prey. Import they need.
  12. Fat
    Fat 22 January 2016 09: 05
    +1
    Actually, what does "shale oil" have to do with it? But until recently, the United States had a ban on the export of crude oil. Only the products of processing of this raw material were exported Gasoline, gasoline, etc. In this vein, both liquefied gas and "shale oil" are not raw materials, but already a product of processing. Texas is full of quite decent WTI (it is even one of the exchange standards), there is oil in Alaska, which is simpler, but there is ... The ban on the export of crude oil from the United States seems to have been overcome (?), Contracts are concluded with China (article and on VO was), exporters of petroleum products and their lobby drink boiling water ... Problems bl ... abruptly than in the Middle East. So you can (for a while) leave the Arabs alone, or, at least, reduce the pressure, while maintaining a presence ...recourse
    PS This is not an analysis, no, just thinking "out loud" ...
  13. Belousov
    Belousov 22 January 2016 09: 15
    0
    The states benefit from constant chaos far from them, so the BV will constantly blaze and the staff will not go anywhere from there. The Gulf War will not allow shale oil to take over markets, since logistics, refining, etc. have not yet been debugged. So there are 3-4 years before the actual use of shale oil. As for its price, it is still forecasted at the level of 560-600 dollars and is clearly not competitive with the Russian one. That, in principle, does not interfere with especially "smart" Balts and Ruins. And if the staff manage to demolish Assad and stretch a gas pipeline from Qatar to Europe? Otherwise, this whole mess in Syria loses its meaning. In general, there are many questions.
  14. Mera joota
    Mera joota 22 January 2016 10: 00
    +3
    In case of escalation of the conflict, Russia will have to support Iran

    Well, of course ... Domestic analysts no longer know whom to choose as a friend, they will only find some kind of "friend", so a kick from him in the ass right there ... Now they began to lick Iran, they say, our ally in the fight against world evil. .. But damn how is that? Friend, what are you?
    Iran did not miss the "Russian Knights" at an air show in Bahrain
  15. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 10: 23
    +2
    No illusions, and then insults. It reminds teenage girls. First they’ll come up with an idol, then fall in love, then they suffer that he’s not like that. Russia has no friends. Actually like every country in this world. Therefore, there is no need for illusions and grievances. There are partners. There are agreements and contracts. There are countries which adhere to them more less, and there are opportunists who always strive to have profit. Iran, by the way, has not yet compromised itself in this area.
  16. Cucumbers
    Cucumbers 22 January 2016 11: 42
    +2
    You don’t have to trust the Jesuits. It’s just that America transfers her girl to Saudi Arabia to our Chinese brothers. What will come of this for us is probably clear to everyone. For us, the main thing is not to focus on Syria. The effectiveness of our airstrikes is falling. It is time to start withdrawing planes from Syria. Everyone knows that if necessary we will get ISIS using long-range aviation, and missiles from submarines and ships
  17. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs 22 January 2016 12: 34
    0
    I look at the map and think. So Iran buys the Bastion from us, and will Yakhont get from the Iranian coast to the capital of the Saudis or not?
  18. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 14: 11
    +2
    With such oil prices, oil should not be sold, but bought in order to be sold later. There are two troubles in Russia, but the roads are not the most terrible and insurmountable of them.
  19. Valdis
    Valdis 22 January 2016 16: 31
    +1
    War is the engine of progress. Who said that we will get involved in Iran?))) After all, the Persians are competitors for us, and if they and Riyadh bother each other, we will benefit.))) Enough to fight for Serbs, Bolgar, Iran already))))
  20. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 22 January 2016 19: 51
    +1
    The slogan was popular in the USSR: bread is the head of everything. Now they say that everything is oil. But what about bread? There is such a scientific discipline that politicians have been actively using recently. It is called neuro-linguistic programming. Or simply put on the people imposing any idea that is declared true. Lenin said (it will not be remembered by night) that the idea that has dominated the masses is power. Remember the previous election campaigns and their ideas. More recently, it was the idea of ​​nanotechnology, which they began to talk less about and will soon be forgotten. The same goes for oil. So what is the world revolving around? Still, around the idea, but not premeditated by people. He wrote about this already and met a negative reaction. Who cares, they can find.
    Look at the root - called the literary character, Kozma Prutkov.
  21. Kupez4
    Kupez4 22 January 2016 20: 33
    0
    S.U.K.I came, and they shamed us. And they made a shame that it will stink for a long time in this region. And who will remove the crooks after you, A?
  22. Stilet
    Stilet 23 January 2016 15: 01
    0
    So this is chess!
    Option # 1: If ISIS is "pacified" in Syria, then Iran will definitely start building a main oil pipeline to Europe. And there will not be any "South Stream", and although we will help Assad, we will silently wipe out, not to kill yesterday's ally. Iran will be a new player in the supply of oil, and the States will easily surrender the CA and Qatar in exchange for IRAN. For this, the sanctions were removed from him.
    Option number 2: If ISIS wins in Syria, then the Saudis and Qataris will stretch the pipe. And we ended up with an ally, a base in the Mediterranean, no South Stream. Iran will remain at its level with no prospects for the development of oil sales, and again they will impose sanctions against it and incite ISIS in order to finish off the Shiite stronghold.
    Everyone benefits, except for Russia. crying There is only one conclusion: control of the territory of Syria and have a strong influence on the Turkish and Syrian Kurdistan (so that the pipe is not dragged through Turkey). At the same time, both CA and Qatar should be piled in order to leave the game for good. Iran is closer, we will agree. drinks