Military Review

Friendship is friendship, and snuff apart

35
Xi Jinping’s visit to Islamic states began this week. The chairman of the People's Republic of China began his trip with Saudi Arabia. Then he will arrive in Egypt and Iran. Experts believe that Xi Jinping has chosen these states for a reason. Director of the China-Arab Cooperation Forum, Xue Qinggo, believes that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran are the most influential countries in the Middle East region today. In addition, they maintain close relations with China. Some Russian experts say that a rapprochement between China and Iran could be a disaster for the Russian oil trade.




At a meeting with the Secretary-General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, Iyad bin Amin Madani, PRC President Xi Jinping said in Riyadh that China intends to deepen cooperation with Islamic countries.

“The Chinese side intends to deepen the integration of interests with Islamic countries, strengthen profitable ties, use each other’s opportunities and develop together within the framework of the Belt and Path Initiative [the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Silk Road],” quotes TASS Xi Jinping. According to the Chinese leader, it is necessary “to expand the dialogue of two major civilizations - Chinese and Islamic.”

In the run-up to Xi Jinping’s visits to the three named Middle Eastern countries, an article by the Chinese Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Li Chengwen, was published in the Chinese newspaper Renmin Ribao.

On his opinion, the visit of the chairman of the PRC to Saudi Arabia will have historical meaning: after all, it will be the first trip of the Chinese leader to the Middle Eastern country after King Salman came to power.

As Li Chengwen believes, Saudis are friendly to the Chinese people. There are examples of this: Riyadh provided 50 million US dollars and material assistance in the amount of 10 million dollars after the Wenchuan earthquake in China in 2008 year; At the EXPO exhibition in Shanghai in 2010, Riyadh allocated 150 million dollars for the construction of a pavilion in the form of a huge ship with an oasis, and at the end of the exhibition Saudi Arabia gave the pavilion to China (gratuitously).

Saudi Arabia is the largest trading partner and supplier of crude oil to China. In addition, the two countries are deepening cooperation in the field of space satellites, science and technology, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources, as well as finance. “In the context of ongoing unrest in the Middle East and deep changes in the global structure of energy resources, the number of common interests of China and Saudi Arabia is constantly increasing, the friend’s friend’s support and mutual needs are increasing, and the interaction prospects are wider,” the ambassador notes.

Why did Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Iran choose Xi Jinping for visits?

Professor of Arabic at Peking University of Foreign Languages, Director of the Research Center of the Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum Xue Qingguo in an interview "People's Daily" He said that the three countries mentioned are the most influential states in the Middle East region. And Xi Jinping's first overseas visit to 2016 shows China’s increased attention to the Middle East.

Hua Limin, a former Chinese ambassador to Iran, the United Arab Emirates and the Netherlands, recalled that after the 18th CPC congress, China’s leadership had embarked on comprehensive diplomacy. For three years, Xi Jinping has traveled to five continents, the former diplomat said, while the Middle East remained intact.

Speaking of friendship between China and Middle Eastern countries, Hua Limin described it as a time-tested experience. "For several decades, the world has witnessed great changes, many changes have occurred in the Middle East, but the friendly relations between China and the Middle East have remained the same," he said.

Director of the Arabic Research Institute of the University of Ningxia Li Shao told the publication that, against the background of the current difficult situation in the region, China is playing an increasingly prominent role in resolving issues in the Middle East. The PRC, in his opinion, is an active participant in the reconstruction of the political process in the region. In addition, Arab countries need economic development, and China is promoting the construction of a “single belt, one path” in the region.

Especially curious is the opinion of Chinese experts on cooperation with Iran.

"The state visit of PRC Chairman Xi Jinping to Iran will contribute to the further development of Iranian-Chinese relations," the correspondent told "People's Daily" Dean of the Faculty of World Studies at Tehran University Mohammed Marandi.

According to Marandi, the Middle East is a crossroads where Europe, Asia and Africa meet. Being an important regional state, Iran is ready to increase the level of cooperation with China in the political and economic spheres. “Iran needs the PRC, and China is interested in Iran,” the expert believes.

Iran has rich reserves of oil and gas resources, and its return to the energy market will change the economic structure of the world. “Oil and gas from Iran can be transported to China via the Persian Gulf, as well as through Central Asia,” the expert said. - If you choose the second option of transportation, Iranian-Chinese cooperation will contribute to the economic development of Central Asian countries. It can be said that friendship and interaction between Iran and the PRC not only have a positive effect on the two countries, stimulating active ties in the political, economic and cultural spheres, but also allow other states to benefit. ”

Marandi also said that Iran needs to strengthen trade and economic cooperation with China, since the PRC, being the second economy in the world, will become the best partner for Iran.

China’s desire to become “the best partner for Iran” does not please some Russian experts. I must say, not without reason. The raw material economy of Russia can suffer greatly from the intensification of oil cooperation between China and Iran.

“There has always been a good economic and political relationship between Iran and China,” said Reedus Leonid Gusev, Senior Researcher, Analytical Center, MGIMO Institute of International Studies. - Iran is in third place for shipments to China. In turn, the Tehran metro was built by Chinese engineers. So the relationship there is very close. They have cooled down a bit during the embargo, but now they will grow intensively. ”

Iran has accumulated large reserves of unrealized "black gold" over the years of the sanctions. Competition in the commodity market may lead to a decrease in oil prices. This is beneficial for China, but for Russia ... For Moscow, a rapprochement between Iran and China can turn into a real catastrophe, said Reedus.

The game of China on the competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia could lead to a further fall in oil prices. After them, inevitably, gas prices linked to oil prices will also fall. “All this gives Beijing the opportunity to continue to twist the Russian Federation’s hands when pricing is already on Russian supplies,” the newspaper writes. - China, as you know, prefers to diversify suppliers, so he is not going to give up Russian energy resources. The whole question is only in their price. ”

In addition, a number of “unpleasant surprises from the newly-made partner” can expect Moscow in the Middle East market. weapons. “Such a policy of China is extremely harmful for Russia,” summarizes Leonid Gusev. “But she has nowhere to go, in international economic cooperation, every man for herself.”

Summing up, we note that Chinese economic expansion into the region will inevitably push Russia aside, trying to regain once strong Soviet positions in the Middle East. The visits of Comrade X show that the Celestial Empire intends to expand cooperation with the countries of the region, including Iran with a rich resource. Intense competition between oil suppliers will undoubtedly lead to a further decline in oil prices and a weakening of the Russian economy, which is highly dependent on foreign economic conditions. Of course, Beijing uses the situation with profit for itself: the tougher the competition among commodity traders, the cheaper it is to buy the raw material of the Celestial.

Observed and commented on Oleg Chuvakin
- especially for topwar.ru
35 comments
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  1. aszzz888
    aszzz888 22 January 2016 06: 35
    +3
    The fact that these meetings of the "Chinese comrades" will not pass without leaving a trace for us is already an indisputable fact. It remains only to guess these options: in which direction - for the better or for the worse. I think that the second option is not even excluded.
    1. Wheel
      Wheel 22 January 2016 07: 00
      13
      Quote: aszzz888
      It remains only to speculate on these options: which way - for better or worse. I think that the second option is very much possible.

      It would be strange if China did not play the Middle East card.
      And then Russia will suffer from it or not - China is the least concerned.
      1. Jack-b
        Jack-b 22 January 2016 11: 16
        +4
        Quote: Wheel
        The fact that these meetings of the "Chinese comrades" will not pass without leaving a trace for us is already an indisputable fact. It remains only to guess these options: in which direction - for the better or for the worse. I think that the second option is not even excluded.

        Quote: Wheel
        And then Russia will suffer from it or not - China is the least concerned.

        The fact that the Russian economy depends on raw materials is bad. The fact that the Chinese are taking steps forcing our leadership to change the structure of the economy is also bad. Guys, you already decide, in the end, what you want!
        1. Wheel
          Wheel 22 January 2016 18: 59
          0
          Quote: Jack-B
          The fact that the Russian economy depends on raw materials is bad. The fact that the Chinese are taking steps forcing our leadership to change the structure of the economy is also bad.

          Change the structure of the economy?
          Who is changing ???
          Where does it change ????
          When does it change ????
      2. The comment was deleted.
      3. user
        user 23 January 2016 12: 04
        0
        And then Russia will suffer from it or not - China is the least concerned.


        I think in today's situation of confrontations with the Anglo-Saxons, and today in that confrontation even the EU on the other side of the US barricade, China is thinking about the Northern border (referring to the Silk Road, Nord Stream, oil pipeline supplies from the Russian Federation, and other ground supplies / p RF). Indeed, China in the South has a lot of problems with countries behind which the United States, and deliveries through the Strait of Malacca is still a problem, while the US Navy leaves no chance for the Chinese Navy.
        So for the PRC, in the long run, the support of the Russian Federation is necessary, and not only economic. China alone can not resist.
    2. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 35
      -1
      Of course for the worse. Already predicted a drop in oil prices to $ 16 per barrel. China is profitable.
  2. parusnik
    parusnik 22 January 2016 06: 38
    +1
    Experts believe that Xi Jinping chose these states for a reason... They forge money, without departing from the cash register ... A holy place does not happen empty ... where does Russia leave or weaken positions ... China comes ...
  3. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 22 January 2016 06: 51
    +4
    China is an independent country, it can do anything, but we just need to look carefully and draw conclusions from what we have seen, right conclusions.
    1. asadov
      asadov 22 January 2016 10: 41
      +1
      I agree, and do not make hasty conclusions and do not rush from one extreme to another headlong
  4. Karayakupovo
    Karayakupovo 22 January 2016 07: 37
    +2
    The article forgot to mention the military component, that is, joint exercises, the purchase of modern weapons. + disputed territories in the seas. Then it turns out that the PRC has yet to be friends with Russia. I just think so.
    1. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 37
      -1
      Pretend to be a friend. Rent land for 49-70 years, and then ruin Russia.
  5. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 22 January 2016 07: 52
    10
    the tougher the competition among commodity dealers, the cheaper the Celestial Empire will buy this raw material.

    To buy cheaper is the desire of any country. The Chinese are using the situation to their advantage, so why blame them? Russia also needs to put its interests first, and not play "good uncle" in the hope that the other side will finally understand how good we are.
  6. Cap.Morgan
    Cap.Morgan 22 January 2016 08: 43
    +3
    Even without taking into account industry, if every Chinese family buys a car, and everything is slowly moving towards this, then they will burn all the oil on the planet. Oil will not be enough for China. There are one and a half billion people and two-thirds of world production.
    1. Karlovar
      Karlovar 22 January 2016 14: 46
      0
      They rely on electric cars (in 10-15 years) ... As a transitional option, on plug-in hybrids ...
  7. good7
    good7 22 January 2016 08: 48
    0
    China traders, of course, their logic is clearly alien! Well the truth is funny Xi started with KSA, and is going to finish in Iran belay In vain in Turkey is not going to call in can help him and the Uyghurs! Well, there is investment, you can still throw the population to China, otherwise they have an aging population, but here they are young and hot! Oil prices will collapse, so what Chinese consumer goods to take! The crisis is mutual!
    1. Karlovar
      Karlovar 22 January 2016 14: 49
      0
      There is no oil in Turkey ... And the aging of the population in Russia and Europe is a much more pressing problem than in China ...
  8. Nikolay K
    Nikolay K 22 January 2016 08: 50
    +5
    To carry out economic expansion on a par with China, it is necessary to have a competitive economy. We, with rare exceptions, are not able to compete in any industry, especially capital-intensive, with loan rates at 20% per annum. The only exception is nuclear power and arms supplies, and then at the expense of the remnants of past Soviet achievements. So in this situation we can only envyly watch how China makes money.
    1. Boatsman_Palych
      Boatsman_Palych 22 January 2016 10: 28
      0
      And to endure gatherings of enemies and traitors like the "Gaidar Forum", gloating over the fact that THEY did not allow Russia to follow the Chinese path of real reforms. "Only mass executions will save the Motherland" (c) Goblin
    2. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 39
      -1
      In China, rates are 5-7% per annum.
  9. surrozh
    surrozh 22 January 2016 09: 29
    0
    Another argument in favor of the presence of the aerospace forces in Syria. The supply of the S-300 to Iran is another plus for Russia. And then it will be seen where and how whose oil will go. And how much.
  10. Belousov
    Belousov 22 January 2016 09: 37
    +6
    China competently uses its advantages and also competently hides its disadvantages, well done. To be honest, it’s even a little enviable and insulting that for a couple of decades they have made such a leap (primarily mental), and we all slide into the abyss through the efforts of our leaders from the government ...
  11. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 09: 39
    0
    The main thing is not to sell our wealth to China, for whatever iPhones
    Quote: Cap.Morgan
    Even without taking into account industry, if every Chinese family buys a car, and everything is slowly moving towards this, then they will burn all the oil on the planet. Oil will not be enough for China. There are one and a half billion people and two-thirds of world production.
  12. Cucumbers
    Cucumbers 22 January 2016 11: 20
    +1
    China needs our territories, it just won’t get them. And what is needed for this? As Xi Jinping said, they will not fight with us, other methods will be used. Weakening Russia, replacing it, peacefully forcing Russia to make concessions. For example: the Power of Siberia gas pipeline is under construction, and the price of gas is not yet complicated. We’ll build, and they will offer low gas price, and then what, agree? They need our ideas, they can only copy. The same alkaline path, it seems, agreed with us, and they themselves began to work through Azerbaijan and Georgia. That is, to find out our plans, and then do without us. The nation of former and real drug addicts, you should not expect anything else from them.
    1. Lord blacwood
      Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 42
      +1
      Firstly, China has a competent policy and a strong economy. Secondly, no one forbade spying.
  13. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 22 January 2016 11: 33
    +2
    Beijing uses the situation to its advantage: the tougher the competition among commodity merchants, the cheaper it will be bought by the Celestial Empire
    Now it has become fashionable to say that China is our best friend and partner. To have such "close" friends and enemies is not necessary!
  14. Arktidianets
    Arktidianets 22 January 2016 13: 00
    +1
    China will not miss its own; the Chinese, unlike us, are not inclined to act to their own detriment in the name of the friendship of peoples. They smile politely through narrow eyes, and they themselves hold the knife behind their backs. Such are our comrades ...
  15. Corsair
    Corsair 22 January 2016 13: 03
    +3
    Why are all liberoids and the government so crying? In the GDP of the Russian Federation, the share of mining is only 10%, and it seems that all 50% are inflating. They’re afraid there’s nothing to buy bucks for their idiotic optimization programs and to banks for loans?
    China Iran - partners are not partners, as the USSR used to live - where is heavy industry - where are our pipes (more than Chinese, Australian and Amer), why are we still buying a lot of meat and milk, vegetables abroad for these notorious pieces of paper?
    Will the oil industry collapse? Not a damn thing! - develop your processing structure, the production of plastics, high-octane fuel, replace foreign equipment with Russian counterparts, since corporations have research institutes that should move in the direction of development, and not just methods of squeezing dry lenses and hydraulic fractures.
  16. iouris
    iouris 22 January 2016 14: 00
    +2
    The creation of the Russian Federation is a consequence of the collapse of the USSR. The collapse of the USSR is an oligarchic project. Soviet oligarchs immediately fell into the orbit of the dollar, so the oligarchic government will always carry out the Fed's program. And who said that the people (workers) are a subject of politics and a beneficiary? The goal is a person, i.e. oligarch, and the whole program is liberal.
  17. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 14: 19
    +1
    The problem is that we have three classes of people: well-fed, hungry, and insatiable. They then rule.
    Quote: iouris
    The creation of the Russian Federation is a consequence of the collapse of the USSR. The collapse of the USSR is an oligarchic project. Soviet oligarchs immediately fell into the orbit of the dollar, so the oligarchic government will always carry out the Fed's program. And who said that the people (workers) are a subject of politics and a beneficiary? The goal is a person, i.e. oligarch, and the whole program is liberal.
  18. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 14: 56
    0
    .. "On January 14, the text of the agreement between Russia and Syria dated August 26, 2015, was published, which stipulates the conditions for the stay of Russian military forces in Syria. The context of the agreement is another step in reformatting the region and a serious blow to the plans of our western" partners ". Thus, the Russian Khmeimim airbase can be located in Latakia indefinitely and free of charge.Moscow gets the right to import an unlimited number of people and materials into Syria, to conduct its own military operations without involving the Syrian forces.
    What does it mean? Moscow is seriously and permanently entrenched in the region, controlling the most important logistics center (for the transfer of oil or gas from the Arabian Peninsula or Iran to Europe, for example). The advanced military base equipped with Caliber, Iskander, S-400 allows you to participate in the formation of a new security zone in the region, changes the military-political alignment for Iraq, Iran, Israel, the USA, the Arabian monarchies and, of course, Turkey. Any attempts to make demarches in the North Caucasus or the Turkic-speaking regions of the country will have consequences. The configuration of discussions around the Bosphorus Strait also appears in a new way. http://expert.ru/2016/01/22/siriya-vozvraschaet-zemlyu-i-grazhdan/
    Every dog ​​has his day.
    1. sa-ag
      sa-ag 22 January 2016 17: 19
      0
      Quote: vladimirvn
      What does this mean?

      This means how weak the current Assad regime is, the power held by someone else’s military force, it’s difficult even to find an analogue, Albania or Kosovo only come to mind
      Quote: vladimirvn
      Moscow is seriously and permanently entrenched in the region, controlling the most important logistics hub (for the transfer of oil or gas from the Arabian Peninsula or Iran to Europe, for example

      Iran has completely voiced its intention to transfer gas through Turkey, and no one will stop it, I want a lot of money, I will return my market share without ceremony
      1. Lord blacwood
        Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 43
        -1
        With the support of China.
  19. forester
    forester 22 January 2016 16: 58
    0
    China is an enemy worse than mattress toppers - I always thought so and think so because every day I come across this locust at work and never understood the enthusiasm for "friendship" with these "friends" You can only trade with them and no cooperation in any areas. Opening of a joint university a strategic mistake - we have nothing to learn from them, but they really need our technologies and knowledge But they are in great friendship with mattress toppers - China is an American assembly shop and America is a Chinese sales market, they will bend without each other, therefore, rely on China's support in confrontation with the United States can only (stupid), to put it mildly, They simply cannot agree on how to divide Russia - so they squabble And both need Siberia
  20. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 22 January 2016 19: 47
    -2
    The United States is confidently moving towards world power, pinching Russia into economic ticks. Other countries, such as China, also plague Russia.
  21. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 22 January 2016 21: 32
    0
    For sa-ag, I repeat: "There will be a holiday on our street too!"
  22. podgornovea
    podgornovea 22 January 2016 21: 36
    +1
    And in more detail it is impossible?

    "Over the years of sanctions, Iran has accumulated large reserves of unrealized" black gold "

    Amerikos understandably has underground storage facilities, and they publish reserves - either 498 million barrels, then 798 million barrels.

    Attention question: What large stocks "Iran has accumulated over the years of sanctions" in barrels and where? It seems like they have the opposite, wear and tear of infrastructure during this time, and underfunding of existing fields?

    Figures in the studio!
    (Well, or at least some plausible phrases)