What will the "Arab winter" lead to?
The hot “Arab spring” has come to the end, even more bloody “Arab summer and autumn” have passed, the “Arab winter” has come. This allows us to draw some conclusions about the state of affairs in the Middle East and North Africa and make a forecast for the near future. To think about the significance of these events for Russia and what policies it should pursue in connection with these processes.
It is already clear that several local and external players play the most active role in the region. Moreover, some local players completed the game - Egypt and Libya ceased to be centers of power, becoming victims and a battlefield. Of the active players most active are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran and Turkey. The most active and powerful external force is the militant union of England and France and the United States behind them. China and Russia are less visible and more politically-diplomatic methods, although they do not forget to fight for the market weapons in this huge and capacious region.
The West, Turkey and Sunni monarchies crave the blood of the Syrian Arab Republic, the regime of Bashar al-Assad. In addition, there is an active preparation of world public opinion for the war with Iran. To this end, several information campaigns have already been carried out: 1) the world has been frightened for years with the “Iranian nuclear bomb”, and recently they have added kerosene with the report of the IAEA; 2) Tehran was accused of preparing a revolution in Bahrain, which was suppressed by the security forces of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC); 3) The Islamic Republic was accused of preparing to kill the Saudi ambassador and to undermine the embassies of Saudi Arabia and Israel in the capital of the United States; 4) The authorities of the Kingdom of Bahrain have accused Iran of preparing a series of terrorist acts on their territory. The terrorists allegedly planned to blow up the building of the Saudi embassy in Bahrain and the road bridge that connects Saudi Arabia and the island kingdom.
Obviously, the Anglo-Saxons and their allies will not stop at what has been achieved, and we will see more than one provocation, perhaps a very powerful terrorist attack, such as the 11 event of September 2001, where the “Iranian trail” will be found.
And before the attack on Iran, it is necessary to solve the problem of Syria, preferably bringing the situation to a Sunni civil war against the Alawite and the supporters of Assad. Open intervention in Syria is fraught with Iran’s entry into a conflict; a scenario where the Bashar Assad regime collapses "itself" is more beneficial.
Iran
The situation around the Islamic Republic is such that war is inevitable. The development of the crisis is pushing the Western world to unleash a large-scale war in the Middle East, which in one way or another will affect the whole world. Although neither Teheran, nor Jerusalem, nor the population of the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, Turkey and the entire Middle East region are interested in this war.
This factor, and Tehran has been threatened with war for a long time, forces the Iranian leadership to develop its atomic program, rapidly improve its defensive capabilities and respond to the aggressive statements of Western or Israeli politicians in the same way.
It is clear that the concern of the Iranian elite about the future of the Islamic Republic means the need to join the so-called. "Nuclear club". The lesson of recent times is simple: either you have nuclear weapons and the determination to use them, or a country that has an independent policy can be crushed at any time. North Korea has an atomic bomb and the possibility of producing atomic weapons, they don’t touch it. Saddam Hussein did not have nuclear weapons, the country was occupied, Hussein was executed. Muammar Gaddafi agreed with the world community and refused to develop the Libyan atomic program, which they suggested and propose to do to Iran, but the West violated all public and tacit agreements. The Libyan Jamahiriya is crushed, its leader brutally indicative killed.
Tehran should not be considered a “lamb” - the Iranian military-political, spiritual elite has plans to create a so-called "Shiite Caliphate", to become the hegemon of the Islamic world. Nuclear weapons in the formation of a "great power" does not hurt. With the "restructuring" of the Islamic world in favor of Tehran, the world can get a nuclear power with a good military, scientific, economic potential.
Naturally, the West and Israel do not see Iran as the leader of the Islamic world, it must be eliminated, an extra competitor is not needed - so there are enough problems. I will support Turkey and the monarchies of the Persian Gulf in this West, since The implementation of Tehran’s plans is the wreck of their plans for the “Sunni Caliphate” or the “New Ottoman Empire”.
Tehran's allies under attack
Syria is the most powerful ally of Iran, but, judging by all, this country will be “cleared out” before it strikes at the Islamic Republic. The country is gripped by a virus of unrest, and every day anxious news, talking about the proximity of the beginning of the civil war, inspired by the outside. Resources of Sunni monarchies, Turkey, Western countries are thrown into battle. So, the UN’s main human rights defender, Navi Pillay, the High Commissioner for Human Rights, declared a civil war in the Syrian Arab Republic. According to her, the number of victims in the SAR has already exceeded 4 by thousands of people, more and more of the military are moving to the side of the opposition, and the armed resistance to the government is becoming stronger.
Her statement almost coincided with other news - there is a consolidation of the Syrian opposition. Under the auspices of the Turkish authorities 1 December, negotiations were held in Turkey between representatives of two opposition organizations that are seeking to overthrow President Bashar Assad - the Syrian National Council and the Syrian Free Army (SSA). Both organizations officially recognized each other. The Syrian National Council reported that the SSA is a real structure that is conducting an armed struggle against the Assad regime. In response, representatives of the PASA recognized the Council as the main political structure of the Syrian opposition. Both sides agreed to coordinate their actions and establish permanent communication. Previously, both opposition forces acted separately: the Council initially did not recognize the violent methods of struggle to overthrow the Assad regime and insisted that the revolution should go peacefully, and representatives of the FSA stated that the authorities should be responded to with the same.
Earlier, bad news came from Turkey: Ankara talked for a long time about economic sanctions against the SAR, but did not introduce them, because they hit the Turkish economy, but geopolitical interests won out over economic considerations. November 30 sanctions were imposed. The Turkish government has blocked the mechanisms of strategic cooperation with Syria, Syrian officials and businessmen have been banned from entering Turkey, interaction with the Central Bank of the SAR, financial assets of Damascus, etc. have been frozen. In addition, Ahmat Davutoglu said that Turkey can use military force against Syria. Apparently, we are talking about creating a so-called. "Security zone" on the border of two states. According to the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry, the Syrian authorities, "acting against their own people, do not have a mandate for power." This news once again confirms the opinion of the double standards of the policy of the West and its allies - Ankara is carrying out a military operation against the Kurds (in the territory of the neighboring state - Iraq), on its territory subjecting Kurds to mass repressions, but the Turkish government does not blame the "bloody" except the Kurds themselves.
Thus, the Bashar Assad regime has now found itself almost completely diplomatic isolated and facing the threat of war on two fronts: firstly, the need to protect the border with Jordan, Turkey, and with Israel is not all clear - no one will give security guarantees; secondly, to fight with internal enemies. It is doubtful that Iran will be able to provide direct military assistance to Damascus if the intervention develops according to the “soft scenario” - civil war, the creation of “security zones”.
Hezbollah and Hamas
The leadership of these movements is not interested in a war with Israel or for Syria against a broad coalition of countries. They are well aware that they are prepared for the role of pawns, which they will sacrifice without any special emotions. They benefited from the current situation. The leadership of the Libyan “Party of Allah” prefers to limit itself to bellicose speeches, although the political influence of this Shiite organization in Lebanon has reached a historic maximum, the rearmament of the units has been completed, the firepower has been strengthened, the fortifications have been restored. But if a big war begins, Hezbollah and Hamas will simply be crushed by the Israeli military machine.
In addition, Hamas is currently in an uncertain situation. The Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement refused to support the Assad regime, losing Iran’s annual financial assistance, and at the same time did not accept the offer of Qatar to support the Syrian opposition. In addition, the command of the Israeli army, concerned about the exacerbation of the situation in Egypt, the transfer of weapons from Libya to the Gaza Strip, the radicalization of the mood of the Palestinian Arabs because of the question of the recognition of Palestine by the world community, is thinking of the complete destruction of Hamas. In such a situation, Jerusalem needs to destroy Palestinian military-political groups in the Gaza Strip and establish tight control over its border with the Egyptian state. Therefore, the Hamas leadership is thinking of relocating its headquarters to Jordan.
Theoretically, together with HAMAS and Hezbollah, they are able to expose thousands of fighters to 100 and use several tens of thousands of short-range missiles and shells, there is information that Israel’s enemies have several dozen medium-range missiles. But Israel can destroy the installations with medium-range missiles with the first strike, and then defeat the formations of these movements. Hamas units have low combat capability, and it is doubtful that they will offer serious resistance, most will simply run away. The level of training, armament and fighting capacity of the Lebanese Shiite organization is much higher, but in the event of a war of extermination (if Hezbollah intervenes in the Iran-Israel conflict), the IDF will undoubtedly eliminate the enemy.
Contradictions, prerequisites for large-scale battle
In fact, we are witnessing how in the region of the Near and Middle East developed powerful insoluble peacefully contradictions between countries, unions of states, political parties, movements, ideologies. The situation is somewhat similar to the geopolitical situation before the First and Second World Wars.
- The West, the Anglo-Saxons against the Islamic world. Antlantists are going to destroy Islam as an idea that hinders the construction of the New World Order, to completely discredit Muslims. For this, secular authoritarian regimes that combined the ideas of Islam, socialism and capitalism are being destroyed, Islamists gain power in the countries. The construction of the “Sunni Caliphate”, which will be an instrument in the fight against India, China, Russia and Europe, is being supported. Therefore, Syria has long been sentenced, the Alawites must yield to the Sunnis. Sunnis also bleed with Shiites. There is a process of launching a world war.
- Israel is against Iran and in the struggle for survival. The Iranian leadership believes that the Jewish state does not have the right to exist, at least in its current form. For Jerusalem, the Islamic Republic is the “enemy number one”, the most powerful enemy in the region, capable of creating nuclear weapons in the near future, and Iran already has carriers for nuclear weapons. The Jewish elite are ready to start a war on their own to stop Iran.
At the same time, Israel, as a powerful regional military-political force, is preparing for confrontation on several fronts at once, including with former partners - Egypt and Turkey. Jerusalem is trying to establish relations with Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, the Kurds - the geopolitical opponents of Ankara.
Before the more dangerous clashes, Israel wants to “clear out” Hamas (the Palestinian Islamic movement and political organization ruling from 2007 in the Gaza Strip). Israel’s army and Hamas have been exchanging blows lately, the militants are firing rockets and shells at the Jewish state, and the IDF has launched air strikes against the positions of the militants and their leaders. The leadership of the Israel Defense Forces announced its desire to destroy this Palestinian movement in the medium term. According to the Israeli military, Hamas militants received a significant amount of weapons from the defeated Muammar Gaddafi military forces after the revolution and war in Libya.
- Arab World vs Israel. The collapse of secular regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, the gradual strengthening of Islamist positions in Tunisia, Morocco and Egypt, a surge of radicalism in Palestine, unrest in Syria - all this and a number of other factors lead the region to a new large-scale Arab-Israeli war. In which to some extent Turkey can take part. The West, if necessary, will hand over Israel, as in 1938, they gave Czechoslovakia to Hitler. However, there is a scenario when Israel will implement the plan for the creation of the “Great Israel”. Then the Arabs will have very bad, the owners of the West are not against a significant reduction in the human population, including at the expense of the inhabitants of the Arab world.
- The monarchies of the Persian Gulf, especially Saudi Arabia and its satellites, Qatar against Syria and Iran. These gentlemen are implementing the construction plan of the “Sunni Caliphate”, and for this it is necessary to crush the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria so that the Sunnis seize power and destroy Iran. The invitation of Riyadh and Doha in relation to Morocco and Jordan (they were invited to the Union of the Arab States of the Persian Gulf (GCC)) turns this organization from a regional union into a pan-Arab monarchist alliance. In Tunisia and Egypt, Saudis and Qatari people are betting on the formation of an Islamist parliamentary majority and the introduction of sharia in the countries. In Syria - to the dismemberment of the state. In Libya, they can restore the senusit monarchy, and in Sunni Iraq (with the country's legal collapse), the Hashemite monarchy.
Riyadh is thinking of building its nuclear potential, with the help of Pakistan. All monarchies are engaged in an arms race, increasing their defensive and offensive potential. Independently, they cannot fight with Syria and Iran, due to the low combat capability of the armed forces. Their ideal scenario is the gradual dismantling of the Assad regime, with the help of Turkey and Western countries and the US and Israeli wars against Iran, where they can play a supporting role. Saud can then annex part of the Iranian territory. They see Iran divided between Turkey, Azerbaijan, Saudi Arabia, a part of the territory can be slaughtered by Afghanistan, Iraq.
- Plans to create a "new Ottoman Empire." Ankara is still part of the Sunni bloc, directed against Syria and Iran. But the Turks themselves do not want to fight, especially with Iran, so they expect that Iran will be destroyed by the West. Ankara's interests extend to the Crimea, the Southern and Northern Caucasus, the Balkans, the territory from Syria and Iraq to North Africa, which were once part of their empire. The recent foreign policy attacks of Ankara towards Cyprus, the European Union, Germany, Greece, Israel, Syria indicate that the Turks are actively working to implement the strategic program to turn Turkey by the beginning of the 2020-s into the leader of the Sunni and Islamic world, into the leading military-political and the economic power of the region.
Kemalist ideology is gradually eroded and removed from the educational system, Islamization of the armed forces and the state apparatus is under way. Elements of the Islamic tradition are being introduced into state practice at the highest level. The old generals, who were the basis of secular Turkey, were neutralized. But the army is not infringed upon its rights, since it plays a large role in the formation of "Ottomanism", but only subordinated to the political elite. The ruling political elite is united, well motivated and relies on the support of a significant part of society, including the business community, whose interests are promoted and protected by Ankara.
Turkey is increasingly active in NATO, defending its view of its policies and development. The participation of the Turkish state in overthrowing the Gaddafi regime in Libya, military operations in Iraqi Kurdistan, the key role Ankara can play in eliminating the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, as well as in the event of an attack on the Islamic Republic - all correspond to the image of the new Ottoman Empire. The overthrow of the regimes of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi opened for Ankara an opportunity for Turkish expansion in North Africa.
Turkey is beginning to strengthen its influence in Palestine, it is in conflict with Israel because of the problem of the division of gas reserves on the shelf in the Eastern Mediterranean. This may lead to a Turkish-Israeli conflict or active assistance to Turkey in the Arab war against the Jewish state.
The crisis processes in the European Union, which lead to its collapse, open up great opportunities for Ankara. Here and the role of a bridge for the transit to Europe of hydrocarbons from the Caspian and Middle Eastern countries, the possibility of strengthening positions in the Balkans, and plans to create New Istanbul in the European part of Turkey, and laying a channel between the Black and Mediterranean seas, etc., bypassing the Dardanelles and Bosphorus Straits. d.
For the Anglo-Saxons, the "Ottoman Empire" is interesting as a "ram" against Syria and Iran. A possible "gendarme of the Middle East" and a potential enemy of Russia, which can be confronted with neo-Ottomans through Azerbaijan, the Crimea, Greece and Kosovo (Serbia).
- "Shiite Caliphate". Tehran supported the Arab Spring, hoping that a wave of unrest in Arab countries, including the monarchies of the Persian Gulf, will help expand the influence of Iran. Iran supported Shiite speeches in Bahrain and Eastern Saudi Arabia. The Iranian leadership was pleased to see the fall of the Gaddafi and Mubarak regimes, since two competitors dropped out of the race for leadership in the Islamic world. Now their main enemies in the region are the Saudis, Israel and Turkey. Although the Iranians are ready to cooperate with the Turks if they do not interfere with them, and play on the side of the United States and Israel. Tehran and Ankara have a common interest in confronting the Kurdish movement, in the transit of Iranian natural gas to Europe through Turkey.
- Syria. The Bashar Assad regime faces one main task - to survive. To do this, it is necessary to suppress the attempts of Syrian armed groups to plunge the country into the chaos of civil war and at the same time not bring the situation to external intervention. The main enemies are Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, the West. Some support can be provided by Iran, Russia and China. But they will not come out on the side of Damascus in the war (there are some doubts about the Islamic Republic of Iran, but Tehran will not interfere openly with “soft intervention”).
- Destabilization of the entire region. Long civil war in Somalia, Afghanistan and Iraq, and now in Yemen, the degradation of the economy in several countries, the collapse of civil society and the rapid Islamization in Tunisia, Libya, Morocco, Egypt. The collapse of Sudan and ethnic conflicts in Northern Sudan and South Sudan and the possible war of the North with South Sudan. There is an intensification of Islamist groups, including the Taliban and various al-Qaida units, Somali pirates. In addition, the Islamists got a lot of weapons from the plundered arsenals of Libya.
The growth of radical sentiment in the states. The crowd, people are increasingly disconnected from the usual peaceful life, work - they are taught to constantly rally, to demand something, accustomed to the sight of blood, violence. Passionality of the population, and especially young people, is growing. This is especially well seen in Libya and Egypt, from the Libyan state the “export of revolution” to Syria has already begun.
- The tacit opposition in the region of China and the United States. China for the stability of the region, because in peacetime, the Chinese are gradually crowding out Westerners. The Anglo-Saxons for destabilization and a big war that will sweep away all peacetime constructions or most of them. Thus, the collapse of Sudan and the war in Libya undermined Chinese positions there, Beijing has to rebuild relations.
- Formation of the Anglo-French military alliance, which leads an active and aggressive foreign policy in North Africa and the Middle East. This is seen in Libya, Syria and Iran. Statements by French and British politicians about Syria and Iran show a complete loss of the sense of reality and the ability to sensibly assess the situation (this disease can be “cured” only with the blood of the aggressor).
- Sharp cooling of US-Pakistan relationsIn response to that, Afghan President Hamid Karzai said that in the event of a military conflict between them, Kabul would support Islamabad, speaking of the possibility of the emergence of another hotbed of war on the eastern periphery of the Near and Middle East.
In connection with all the above, it becomes clear that war is inevitable, the only question is when it will start and whether it will immediately become a global one or will we first see a series of new local and regional military conflicts.
Russia
For the Russian Federation, all this means the need to address several critical issues:
- Development of its global project, alternative to Western, Islamic and Chinese, based on social justice and the dictatorship of reason (common sense).
- Restoration of defense, carrying out a new industrialization, the course towards socialism in domestic policy.
- Creating permanent and temporary alliances on the principle of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend." So, in Eurasia, our allies in maintaining stability are China and India, Iran and Syria. China is our ally to preserve peace and security in the Asia-Pacific region. In Europe, it is necessary to win over Germany (and with it Austria) and the Slavic countries, Greece. The main opponents on the planet are the USA, Britain and the Vatican. The camp of the enemies of Russia also includes the monarchies of the Persian Gulf. We have no insoluble contradictions with other countries and civilizations.
- Creating an “iron curtain” in order to stop the threat from various Islamists (neo-Ottoman, Sunni-Wahhabi, etc.) and various Western “values”, such as propaganda of perversions, the introduction of juvenile justice, tolerance for evil, etc. .
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