We need to prepare for the worst scenario, it will be nice to make a mistake "- this is the leitmotif of almost all big newsmakers. But it’s obvious that the OPEC cartel created to protect oil producers was in an extremely difficult situation.
Whether the cartel members realized that keeping high oil prices meant helping competitors with shale oil, or they decided that it was better to mine at a low price than not to mine at all. Mikhail Leontyev watched the market panic and drew attention to the fact that the most pessimistic forecasts are given by his most active players.
Oil prices uncontrollably tend to zero on expectations of a slowdown in China, a flood of Iranian oil, and generally a wild increase in demand over supply, as we are trying to convince. Brent oil fell below 30 dollars per barrel and continues to fall. At the same time, the cost of OPEC oil basket - 25 dollars per barrel, Mexican Pemex sells oil at a loss, losing a dollar on each barrel, Canadian oil dropped to 15 dollars. “Our business is dying in the bud,” the Wall Street Journal quotes the owner of an oil company in Illinois. The newspaper refers to analysts at Barclays, who are expecting to cut spending on the industry by 20% this year after they have already dropped by a quarter last year.
The graph of falling oil prices, smoothed over current fluctuations, is essentially a straight line since last September, when prices fell from 50 dollars per barrel to current 29 dollars. What did the fateful thing happen in the world market in September? In September, Goldman Sachs lowered expectations for the average price of oil by 2016 a year, suggesting that it would fall to 20 dollars per barrel. "Expectations", "Goldman Sachs" supported "Meriel Lynch", "Bank of America" and others.
So, Goldman Sachs 20 dollars is not a prediction. This is a target landmark. This is our Ministry of Economics is engaged in forecasts, and "Goldman Sachs" makes the market. The oil market is not a market for raw materials. Supply contracts with live oil are 2% per cent of the market, the rest are speculative papers, futures and other derivatives. Futures prices are not determined by the supply-demand ratio, but by “expectations”. The futures market is fully controlled by the largest US banks. This is the market of expectations, for which a real “Industry of expectations” has been created, formed by the notorious rating agencies, “independent” experts and the media.
As the hero of the film “Air seller” said, “I’m sure that I’m not going to make a merchant. But I can say that soon the funeral wreaths will be the most popular goods. The air is about to knock out gold. Air will become the most popular currency in stories. Now you understand where our honorable chef bends? Morgan, Rockefeller and all the other Fords combined. "
This wonderful mechanism for managing expectations and allows you to feed the market over and over again with the same rotten mantras. Here, we recall that the shale revolution in the United States, which allowed America to double production, became the base cause of the fall in oil prices.
The number of working rigs in the United States is steadily declining, amounting to date 2 / 3 from the peak value of 2014 year. At the same time, until recently, it was possible to keep production at a stable level - in the 9,2 area of millions of barrels per day.
The phenomenon of American slate, which is worth nothing at all, even when it is not necessary to drill. As our classic Saltykov-Shchedrin used to say: "And so, rascal, give birth, they cried in a child of pride." In fact, the credit game of banks, allowing shale companies to keep afloat to the last, supports American mining. Because the drop in production in the United States can break the entire game. However, no such games were possible without a genie.
From the very beginning of the fall in prices, Saudi Arabia announced that it would not cut production, which completely paralyzed the traditional OPEC market control activities. From this point on, every statement by representatives of the monarchy pushed prices down. At the same time, Saudi Arabia itself ended the year with a budget deficit of 100 billion dollars, and the real production over the past six months has decreased by 400 thousand barrels per day. This is about 4% Saudi mining. "We will meet the demand from consumers, we will no longer limit production," said the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia in early January. To conjure a "genie", of course, can, that's just not necessary to exaggerate the sovereignty of Hottabych. Because on every Hottabych there is a Volka.
"The price of oil will stabilize by the end of the year and reach 50 dollars per barrel," the director of the Goldman Sachs Frankfurt branch said on Thursday. At the same time, it has traditionally associated the fall in prices with a slowdown in growth in China and a decrease in demand.
In the end, it is - samononos. If the "trick" in slowing down China, then from what oak does it suddenly start growing by the end of the year ?! And any speculative game can be successful if you stop in time. Looks like it's time.