Military Review

Analytical program "However - Context"

59



We need to prepare for the worst scenario, it will be nice to make a mistake "- this is the leitmotif of almost all big newsmakers. But it’s obvious that the OPEC cartel created to protect oil producers was in an extremely difficult situation.

Whether the cartel members realized that keeping high oil prices meant helping competitors with shale oil, or they decided that it was better to mine at a low price than not to mine at all. Mikhail Leontyev watched the market panic and drew attention to the fact that the most pessimistic forecasts are given by his most active players.

Oil prices uncontrollably tend to zero on expectations of a slowdown in China, a flood of Iranian oil, and generally a wild increase in demand over supply, as we are trying to convince. Brent oil fell below 30 dollars per barrel and continues to fall. At the same time, the cost of OPEC oil basket - 25 dollars per barrel, Mexican Pemex sells oil at a loss, losing a dollar on each barrel, Canadian oil dropped to 15 dollars. “Our business is dying in the bud,” the Wall Street Journal quotes the owner of an oil company in Illinois. The newspaper refers to analysts at Barclays, who are expecting to cut spending on the industry by 20% this year after they have already dropped by a quarter last year.

The graph of falling oil prices, smoothed over current fluctuations, is essentially a straight line since last September, when prices fell from 50 dollars per barrel to current 29 dollars. What did the fateful thing happen in the world market in September? In September, Goldman Sachs lowered expectations for the average price of oil by 2016 a year, suggesting that it would fall to 20 dollars per barrel. "Expectations", "Goldman Sachs" supported "Meriel Lynch", "Bank of America" ​​and others.

So, Goldman Sachs 20 dollars is not a prediction. This is a target landmark. This is our Ministry of Economics is engaged in forecasts, and "Goldman Sachs" makes the market. The oil market is not a market for raw materials. Supply contracts with live oil are 2% per cent of the market, the rest are speculative papers, futures and other derivatives. Futures prices are not determined by the supply-demand ratio, but by “expectations”. The futures market is fully controlled by the largest US banks. This is the market of expectations, for which a real “Industry of expectations” has been created, formed by the notorious rating agencies, “independent” experts and the media.

As the hero of the film “Air seller” said, “I’m sure that I’m not going to make a merchant. But I can say that soon the funeral wreaths will be the most popular goods. The air is about to knock out gold. Air will become the most popular currency in stories. Now you understand where our honorable chef bends? Morgan, Rockefeller and all the other Fords combined. "

This wonderful mechanism for managing expectations and allows you to feed the market over and over again with the same rotten mantras. Here, we recall that the shale revolution in the United States, which allowed America to double production, became the base cause of the fall in oil prices.

The number of working rigs in the United States is steadily declining, amounting to date 2 / 3 from the peak value of 2014 year. At the same time, until recently, it was possible to keep production at a stable level - in the 9,2 area of ​​millions of barrels per day.

The phenomenon of American slate, which is worth nothing at all, even when it is not necessary to drill. As our classic Saltykov-Shchedrin used to say: "And so, rascal, give birth, they cried in a child of pride." In fact, the credit game of banks, allowing shale companies to keep afloat to the last, supports American mining. Because the drop in production in the United States can break the entire game. However, no such games were possible without a genie.

From the very beginning of the fall in prices, Saudi Arabia announced that it would not cut production, which completely paralyzed the traditional OPEC market control activities. From this point on, every statement by representatives of the monarchy pushed prices down. At the same time, Saudi Arabia itself ended the year with a budget deficit of 100 billion dollars, and the real production over the past six months has decreased by 400 thousand barrels per day. This is about 4% Saudi mining. "We will meet the demand from consumers, we will no longer limit production," said the Minister of Oil of Saudi Arabia in early January. To conjure a "genie", of course, can, that's just not necessary to exaggerate the sovereignty of Hottabych. Because on every Hottabych there is a Volka.

"The price of oil will stabilize by the end of the year and reach 50 dollars per barrel," the director of the Goldman Sachs Frankfurt branch said on Thursday. At the same time, it has traditionally associated the fall in prices with a slowdown in growth in China and a decrease in demand.

In the end, it is - samononos. If the "trick" in slowing down China, then from what oak does it suddenly start growing by the end of the year ?! And any speculative game can be successful if you stop in time. Looks like it's time.
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  1. bronik
    bronik 18 January 2016 08: 08 New
    15
    They play the whole pack against Russia.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 18 January 2016 08: 10 New
      +4
      Quote: bronik
      They play the whole pack against Russia.

      And Medvedev is to blame for all this.
      1. cniza
        cniza 18 January 2016 08: 17 New
        +9
        In the end, it is self-denunciation. If the "chip" in the slowdown of China, then from what oak will it suddenly begin to grow by the end of the year ?! And any speculative game can be successful if you stop in time. Looks like it's time.



        Big players play - speculators, and politicians use this situation for their own purposes.
        1. Temples
          Temples 18 January 2016 08: 58 New
          18
          And Medvedev is to blame for all this.

          Well then Romanov is to blame for everything. laughing
          But not ours, site, but the one with a beard that is in full-length paintings in the Winter.
          But these are all excuses.
          Because as everyone knows:
          - CHUBAIS is to blame for everything!
          laughing
      2. hydrox
        hydrox 18 January 2016 08: 26 New
        +8
        And it’s not his own fault, but with all his criminal government liberal liberals.
        We have hydrocarbons in the budget that make up less than 10% of revenues, and this has been known for 6 years - so let the liberal villains SEARCH how to replace the revenues falling from the budget, they should do this, but they don’t want to work, they want to receive money, and rental coupons to cut
        And all is required of them: to stop issuing foreign currency over the hill and organize the withdrawal of all currency from export to the State Bank - and the problem would be solved!
        1. atalef
          atalef 18 January 2016 12: 28 New
          -2
          Quote: hydrox
          And it’s not his own fault, but with all his criminal government liberal liberals.
          We have hydrocarbons in the budget that make up less than 10% of revenues, and this has been known for 6 years - so let the liberal villains SEARCH how to replace the revenues falling from the budget, they should do this, but they don’t want to work, they want to receive money, and rental coupons to cut
          And all is required of them: to stop issuing foreign currency over the hill and organize the withdrawal of all currency from export to the State Bank - and the problem would be solved!

          70% of the budget is raw materials and carbohydrates
        2. stas132
          stas132 18 January 2016 15: 35 New
          0
          Hydrocarbon revenues, even with an account in mind, is about 30 percent, and this is a serious amount. These measures can not do and can not be solved in a year.
      3. atalef
        atalef 18 January 2016 08: 29 New
        +9
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: bronik
        They play the whole pack against Russia.

        And Medvedev is to blame for all this.

        Hi hi
        this Leontiev used to say - slate - bullshit.
        Sanctions - bullshit
        Oil will always be expensive.
        Now they’re playing for a fall, but WAIT BEFORE OCTOBER - IT WILL END.
        He is the same analyst as OBS.
        Yap, the meaning of the transfer (of today) - we have nothing to do with it, be patient. October will end.
        Let's see - another forecast. HOWEVER. laughing
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 18 January 2016 08: 33 New
          +6
          Quote: atalef
          this Leontiev used to say

          Hi Sanya! Leontyev talked, then he would suck at Rosneft, then Gazprom. He gets good money for his talk. And you and I for such loot that they pay him, they would say the same thing as he did.
          Quote: atalef
          Let's see - another forecast. HOWEVER

          Yes, I’m better to read Paul Globe, he has a higher percentage of forecasts wassat
          1. fraer
            fraer 18 January 2016 08: 42 New
            0
            Romanov do not trust Globe. Cheat. See here.
            http://cont.ws/post/177768
            Vernyak. I give a tooth.
            1. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 18 January 2016 08: 50 New
              -1
              Quote: fraer
              Vernyak. I give a tooth.

              Fraer bullshit is a golem.
              1. fraer
                fraer 18 January 2016 08: 57 New
                +2
                Quote: Alexander Romanov
                Fraer bullshit is a golem.

                Well bullshit is not bullshit, life will judge. You believe in one bullshit, I in another.
                Both of us are sweatshirts. Only they send me to my ban (s) for mine. what and you are afloat.
                1. Alexander Romanov
                  Alexander Romanov 18 January 2016 09: 08 New
                  0
                  Quote: fraer
                  Only they send me to my ban (s) for mine.

                  You see, I don’t forgotten how to be rude
          2. andj61
            andj61 18 January 2016 10: 08 New
            +6
            Quote: Alexander Romanov
            Yes, I’m better to read Paul Globe, he has a higher percentage of forecasts

            Once I read a bike:
            Stalin decided to deal with the work of the weather service. Called the leaders, talked. Asked the question: what percentage of weather forecasts come true? - The answer is 45%. To which Stalin remarked: but you did not try to give a forecast on the contrary - after all, the percentage will be more ... bully
            But seriously, at the beginning of 2014 there were a lot of specialists who claimed that by the end of the year oil would cost about $ 200. Now, apparently, they also say something like that, and they get money for their forecasts. fellow
        2. bmv04636
          bmv04636 18 January 2016 11: 49 New
          +1
          however, in the "bright kingdom of these" there is a massive purchase of gold coins, and if demand does not decrease, then at the mint of the light elves all gold will end by the end of the year. What is it that citizens do not believe in a green piece of paper, huh? laughing
        3. jura61
          jura61 18 January 2016 14: 52 New
          +3
          Quote: atalef
          Now they’re playing for a fall, but WAIT BEFORE OCTOBER - IT WILL END.

          Quote: atalef
          Yap, the meaning of the transfer (of today) - we have nothing to do with it, be patient. October will end.
          Let's see - another forecast. HOWEVER



          I did not watch the transmission I read the text at work, judging by your comment, they didn’t read the text very carefully, in his review Leontiev points to those people who make the price of oil (futures) and the price of 50 bucks, he didn’t say, but an employee of the German branch of Goldman Sachs


          "By the end of the year, oil prices will stabilize and reach $ 50 per barrel," Goldman Sachs, director of the Frankfurt branch, said on Thursday. At the same time, it has traditionally associated a fall in prices with a slowdown in China and a decrease in demand.
      4. oracul
        oracul 18 January 2016 08: 41 New
        +9
        What does Medvedev have to do with it, even considering that he is weak. Do you suppose the thought that his departure will change the situation. Attack, first of all, Russia. Along the way, China and this with its huge gold reserves. It seems that this is no accident. The goal is to prevent China from really helping Russia. To do this, he must be forced to spend reserves, create tension in the economy and turn his attention to internal problems. Judge for yourself how good American analysts are, who have managed to calculate Iran’s interest in acquiring our weapons and who have extended the sanctions on their accounts, where the billions that could be used for this purpose are frozen. It is not for nothing that the Americans spent so many years creating the world wide web to manage the global economy, in the center of which they are beloved as a poisonous spider. Russia needs utmost caution and accuracy in its actions, the smartest strategy for years to come, which allows working ahead of the Anglo-Saxons, special care in choosing partners (I am silent about the allies because in reality they are not). And, of course, we need a powerful economy and the Army. Otherwise they will crush.
      5. Setrac
        Setrac 18 January 2016 10: 07 New
        +2
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        And Medvedev is to blame for all this.

        Well, of course, Medvedev !!! And Stalin is obviously to blame for the attack on Hitler, and Kutuzov is for the attack of Napoleon.
        You, as a true liberal, decided to shift the blame from the direct perpetrators to the indirect ones?
      6. Observer2014
        Observer2014 18 January 2016 10: 35 New
        +4
        Dear non-lifting loans! Here is the cornerstone. It was specially laid in the Russian economy back in the 90s. Hence our problems with the production of everything.
        This virus (with the inability to obtain affordable credit, destroys our country) Starting from a mortgage and ending with production.
        Can you imagine what would happen to Russia for 25 years if we had a credit policy like in France, for example, or in the same states?
        Examples. Yes, complete. From scratch, a cousin of bureaucrats (the governor, minister) rushes to the bank and takes out loans on the most favorable terms. And wow, he is a successful businessman. Then the energy prices in the country! This is what you need to be ...... m! What would you do in your own country!? Fu, I don’t even want to print further.
    2. Dembel77
      Dembel77 18 January 2016 08: 22 New
      +5
      It seems that the United States decided to play all-in, putting the entire world community at stake. Bluff without end and without edge. But trump cards in their hands less and less. In addition, new players sit at the table and the chances of the United States are striving to win their last game in a game called the “world dictatorship”. You can even say fly into the abyss. You cannot beat the whole world. This is an axiom.
    3. saturn.mmm
      saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 09: 13 New
      +3
      Quote: bronik
      They play the whole pack against Russia.

      They play the whole pack for Russia, Russia, at the very least, will take care of its real economy: production and agriculture.
      Low oil prices are a bitter medicine for Russia.
  2. The black
    The black 18 January 2016 08: 08 New
    16
    To minimize dependence on raw materials, it is necessary to develop our own industry and agriculture. The times are, of course, difficult, but if we taxi out, we will become much stronger.
    1. victorsh
      victorsh 18 January 2016 11: 32 New
      +3
      I agree !!! Only OUR government does not allow it to develop. The price of oil is 100 bucks-gasoline (95) 28rub. - it should cost the price of Europe (we were told) -the price of oil is 30 bucks-gasoline (95) 33 rubles. (VAT). Price oil has fallen and according to all “market laws" gasoline in our producing and processing country, the price of gasoline should fall. And the price of food and other basic necessities including (depending on the supply in the first place). But last year, Mr. Leontyev expressed a “good” thought: oil prices are falling, then citizens should compensate for the loss, i.e. raising the price of gasoline is normal (I exaggerate, but the message was this). Conclusion, do not care about the market economy in oil, gas and fuel prices !!! If these prices will establish the STATE something in the economy will move for the better. No wonder Gazprom was banned from advertising on the national treasure.
      1. saturn.mmm
        saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 12: 13 New
        -5
        Quote: victorsh
        Only OUR government does not allow to develop

        Before the crisis in Russia, a liter of gasoline was worth a dollar, and now 40 cents in the USA 60 cents, in China 90 cents, in Europe an average of 1,2 dollars, for the development of industry in Russia it is a reasonable price.
        1. Yuyuka
          Yuyuka 18 January 2016 12: 58 New
          +3
          Before the crisis in Russia, a liter of gasoline was worth a dollar, and now 40 cents in the USA 60 cents, in China 90 cents, in Europe an average of 1,2 dollars, for the development of industry in Russia a reasonable price

          and what were the energy prices? they are so transcendental and are also indexed constantly up! Over the past 20 years Ukraine has supplied metal much cheaper than ours, I generally keep silent about China with its metal products! Only now, with such a course, it has become profitable to produce, but there is nobody - now expensive equipment and just frantic taxes, and there are dumb loans for those who want to "rise" in production! But how many fairy tales about the support and rise of small and medium-sized businesses again ... But, as he said more than once, it is too late to love small and medium-sized businesses - he died on preliminary caresses, although convulsions still continue in some places ...
          1. saturn.mmm
            saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 16: 13 New
            0
            Quote: Yuyuka
            they are so transcendental and are also indexed constantly up!

            I gave an example of the price of gasoline relative to other countries and stated that the price is acceptable. Regarding loans, I have repeatedly stated on the website that until the interest rate is set at 3%, the industry will not develop, I don’t understand why the Russian leadership is running around with some American banks, from the point of view of the country's industrial development, some kind of nonsense, money should be in circulation, the 19 trillion state debt does not bother Americans, everything is based on loans.
            Quote: Yuyuka
            . But, as he said more than once, it's too late to love small and medium-sized businesses - he died on preliminary caresses, although convulsions still continue in some places ..

            You are probably exaggerating a little.
            1. PHANTOM-AS
              PHANTOM-AS 18 January 2016 16: 23 New
              +2
              Quote: saturn.mmm
              I gave an example of the price of gasoline relative to other countries and stated that the price is acceptable.

              And if by the spring the raccoon will be 150 rubles each? What cannot be ruled out with our authorities, then benz. Do you think it will become cheaper in the currency and will be even more “acceptable”?
              Quote: saturn.mmm
              it’s not at all clear why the Russian leadership is running around with its American banks for some American banks,

              it is common for a colonial economy to send capital to the metropolis.
              1. saturn.mmm
                saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 21: 20 New
                +2
                Quote: PHANTOM-AS
                And if by the spring the raccoon will be 150 rubles each? What cannot be ruled out with our authorities, then benz. Do you think it will become cheaper in the currency and will be even more “acceptable”?

                Certainly.
                Quote: PHANTOM-AS
                it is common for a colonial economy to send capital to the metropolis.

                All indirect signs confirm your conclusion, unfortunately, or inadequate people in the government, which is unlikely.
                Honestly, the economic policy of Russia at the moment is very complicated and somehow does not lend itself to analysis.
                In general, the debit-credit looks normal, but it seems only at the expense of the population, that is, the people, otherwise you will have to curtail many programs, including the defense industry complex, which is very undesirable, in my opinion it is better to tolerate, this is where the game is built who will fall out of the circle.
            2. The comment was deleted.
            3. Yuyuka
              Yuyuka 18 January 2016 19: 11 New
              0
              You are probably exaggerating a little

              little bit repeat most manufacturers try to avoid paying all taxes, otherwise you will go broke, for each worker you need to pay up to 80% of his salary to different funds! Well, why "glow" ?? if we are talking about small business - accounting is like big! It would seem - put a tax on the employee: let him pay the pension, the tax to the health insurance fund! Sense then to evade taxes and pay in an envelope? Let only the employer transfer information to the tax authority - to whom how much he paid and that's it! If the employee has a high salary, to encourage the employer with a lowering coefficient for paying income tax. The brains must be turned on by the government to stimulate production!
              another option for loans - give a loan for new equipment, premises or materials at the same interest rates that are now given by banks. After the N-th time has passed - let’s say a year or two, depending on the contract with the entrepreneur when he plans to make a profit, to compensate the interest rate until zero, if he brings a lot of money to the treasury! What is not an incentive ?? and how will it be possible to steal this money if they don’t give you a dime in cash, but directly to the equipment manufacturer - ideally TO OWN manufacturers! Plus, you report every year that you gave work to others who are also forced to pay tax on salaries that are “white”! Duck our state will be strangled, than will do such a thing! today he would have to strip everyone and everything through fines for any reason, taxes, tariffs ... hi
              1. saturn.mmm
                saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 21: 26 New
                0
                Quote: Yuyuka
                if we are talking about small business - accounting is like big!

                For a small business, you need to introduce a fixed tax, a certain amount per year, depending on the field of activity, agricultural for beginners to save from paying taxes for five years, which is what your rulers think is easy to determine, to govern the country foreseeing it for a week.
        2. saturn.mmm
          saturn.mmm 19 January 2016 14: 14 New
          0
          If I’m not mistaken, a liter of gasoline in Russia costs 32 rubles, which is equal to 40 US cents, which is a competitive price in the world market.
          I do not argue that for an ordinary Russian it is a little expensive.
      2. PHANTOM-AS
        PHANTOM-AS 18 January 2016 16: 33 New
        +3
        Quote: victorsh
        Conclusion, do not care about the market economy in oil, gas and fuel prices !!!

        There is no market economy in the Russian Federation!
        In the Russian Federation, ekonomics is colonial in nature, everything else is a fairy tale for the plebs.
        Quote: victorsh
        No wonder Gazprom was banned from advertising on national property.

        since the gsprom is the property of a narrow circle of persons.
        1. saturn.mmm
          saturn.mmm 18 January 2016 21: 39 New
          0
          Quote: PHANTOM-AS
          since the gsprom is the property of a narrow circle of persons.

          73% belongs to the state in 2015, 27% to a narrow circle of people.
  3. izya top
    izya top 18 January 2016 08: 11 New
    +4
    this does not prevent the Yankees and other Turks from making money on igilovskaya oil
    1. The black
      The black 18 January 2016 08: 21 New
      +2
      well, so stolen ..... neither taxes, nor transit fees, nor pension contributions, again slave workers can be forced to work for a piece of bread ... so there’s nothing strange about that. request
  4. Login_Off
    Login_Off 18 January 2016 08: 12 New
    +5
    It looks like it's time to shoot this dog's eggs, nicknamed "Futures"!
  5. Wolka
    Wolka 18 January 2016 08: 12 New
    10
    well, right in the hole, Leontiev is right, this is not the oil market, this is one continuous speculation ...
    1. engineer74
      engineer74 18 January 2016 08: 22 New
      0
      Just like the market of precious metals, grain and further on all points ...
      (Real gold in the world is two orders of magnitude less than traded gold ...)
  6. ImPerts
    ImPerts 18 January 2016 08: 20 New
    0
    One of the reasons forcing Russia to create its own oil brand is an attempt to get rid of the speculative games of Western (mostly American) banks. After all, the price of oil is speculation, and whose rules, he wins.
  7. Mountain shooter
    Mountain shooter 18 January 2016 08: 21 New
    -1
    The author correctly noted that real contracts with oil represent 2% of the mass of securities traded on the market. And bind the vast masses of printed evergreen wrappers. And when the prices for these pieces of paper fall, this mass frees up and begins to "rush around" in search of where to invest ... The economy of the mattress didn’t want to grow, its stock indexes have been falling regularly since the New Year, and quite quickly. I like China in this regard. Tough guys. There, as in the mattress, the mass of small players, literally under one hundred million. The stock market "bloated" like a boa constrictor - a pure pyramid. Then it collapsed at a monstrous speed - well, the majority of minority shareholders said that it wasn’t lucky ...
  8. askort154
    askort154 18 January 2016 08: 23 New
    +3
    Our government reminds me of the crew of a ship with a hole in the board, which, instead of sealing the hole,
    only pumps out water. Let the oil price be low for another five years.
    1. engineer74
      engineer74 18 January 2016 08: 27 New
      +8
      There is a saying: "The worst hole in the ship is a hole in the captain's brain!"
  9. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 18 January 2016 08: 24 New
    +9
    Someone in the 90s with foam at the mouth argued that the market itself will regulate everything, including and in the oil glade. As you can see, it is not the market that regulates, but the politics of individual countries in a strong connection with speculators. Long live the world's most “just” social system — capitalism.
    1. ImPerts
      ImPerts 18 January 2016 08: 50 New
      +3
      It was so. The invisible hand of the market is more affordable in its search for a wallet, fumbling rather than regulating the market.
  10. bydanoff.val
    bydanoff.val 18 January 2016 08: 47 New
    +3
    They spit on their production, when Russia will supply them with oil almost free of charge, including China. What did they achieve. The task completed successfully. From the beginning they put me on a needle, destroying the economy, and now I want to turn things around.
    1. Lelek
      Lelek 18 January 2016 11: 22 New
      0
      Quote: bydanoff.val
      From the beginning they put me on a needle, destroying the economy, and now I want to turn things around.


      Well, not quite like that (by the way, in this case, "first" is written together), there are options:
  11. karevik
    karevik 18 January 2016 08: 51 New
    +7
    Medvedev is a weakling, that’s understandable. He has Dvorkovich as the main oracle, like Raisa at Gorbachev. But what then is our great and wise president? It seems that he’s just stupid! I’m not seeming to be guilty of what’s happening inside the country! So you are our great and wise-change the government and set new people. The current ones consider themselves
    irreplaceable! Golikova alone is worth what! How much dough was cut down on purchases of medical equipment? And in no one shadow with a finger in the government all the stigmas in the fluff! Vladimir Vladimirovich! They will give you and us at the first exertion! Or the same Gref!
    Everything is gone Chef everything is gone! And before Sberbank, who were you? Down yourself!
    1. Boos
      Boos 18 January 2016 09: 16 New
      +3
      Non-resistance to evil, is its multiplication ... Putin's current evil, in the form of Dvorkovich with centuries of sadness of the Jewish people in his eyes, is quite satisfied.
      Quote: karevik
      Medvedev is a weakling, that’s understandable. He has Dvorkovich as the main oracle, like Raisa at Gorbachev. But what then is our great and wise president? It seems that he’s just stupid! I’m not seeming to be guilty of what’s happening inside the country! So you are our great and wise-change the government and set new people. The current ones consider themselves
      irreplaceable! Golikova alone is worth what! How much dough was cut down on purchases of medical equipment? And in no one shadow with a finger in the government all the stigmas in the fluff! Vladimir Vladimirovich! They will give you and us at the first exertion! Or the same Gref!
      Everything is gone Chef everything is gone! And before Sberbank, who were you? Down yourself!
  12. The comment was deleted.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 18 January 2016 09: 14 New
      0
      Quote: Boos
      Some things are always afloat, no wonder

      Very smart?
  13. Xmyp
    Xmyp 18 January 2016 09: 47 New
    +2
    Quote: oracul
    The goal is to prevent China from really helping Russia.

    Does it hurt? China is not interested in a strong Russia, because in fact Russia is a geopolitical adversary.
    All we do is sell them technology and resources.
    1. BARKHAN
      BARKHAN 18 January 2016 11: 52 New
      +1
      Quote: XmyP
      Quote: oracul
      The goal is to prevent China from really helping Russia.

      Does it hurt? China is not interested in a strong Russia, because in fact Russia is a geopolitical adversary.
      All we do is sell them technology and resources.

      Well, that was always the case with everyone, and I’m almost sure that it will be ..
      Any state wants to be strong and independent. But so that the neighbors are weak and dependent, and preferably dependent on you. That's from this simple conclusion that all politics is built. The rest is superficial verbiage.
      It’s possible to talk about the reasons for what’s happening, with a certain degree of awareness ... but to make a forecast, with the highest percentage of probability ... this is a lottery. Yes, tomorrow it can generally jam meteorite anywhere and all the calculations down the drain ...
      Life is beautiful because our plans are adjusted by external factors.
      But this, of course, does not mean that you have to give up and do nothing ... I’m generally very surprised why these dirty Saudis have no man-made disasters in the oil and gas industry ... Why are they doing so much shit so freely?
  14. gg.na
    gg.na 18 January 2016 10: 51 New
    0
    We will live there it will be seen whether this is so or not! Forecasts speak and I can !! But will it be exactly as I say?!?! what
  15. Alex uhu
    Alex uhu 18 January 2016 11: 11 New
    +1
    Well, it’s good that oil is getting cheaper. It's time to peel off the "oil needle".
  16. Lelek
    Lelek 18 January 2016 11: 16 New
    +1
    (The graph of the fall in oil prices, smoothed in relation to the current fluctuations, is, in fact, a straight line from September last year, when prices fell from $ 50 per barrel to the current $ 29. So what happened in the world market in September ? In September, Goldman Sachs lowered expectations for the average oil price for 2016, suggesting that it would drop to $ 20 per barrel. Expectations Goldman Sachs supported Meryl Lynch, Bank of America and others.)

    Against this background, AgoraVox remarks are noteworthy:
    (cry.)
  17. gladysheff2010
    gladysheff2010 18 January 2016 11: 27 New
    +2
    An overview of the oil market, taken out of context, does not provide an objective picture of the macroeconomic situation, both within the country, and global options and trends. It seems that some experts, while juggling data, take away from understanding the overall picture. In short, there is little data for high-quality forecasts , Particularly worried about the lack of information about the proposed steps in the banking sector, because financial investments are the blood of the economy. hi .
  18. bmv04636
    bmv04636 18 January 2016 11: 58 New
    0
    The beginning of the year was unsuccessful not only for the stock and foreign exchange markets, US treasury bonds are also not in demand by central banks around the world. According to the latest Fed data, after central banks sold US government bonds for $ 12 billion in the first week of the year, in the week ending January 13, they got rid of another $ 34,5 billion in securities.
    As they say, not everything is so clear however.
    1. Blackmokona
      Blackmokona 18 January 2016 12: 24 New
      +2
      You need to look not at the miserable pennies (Think that these miserable billions mean compared to 18900 billion debt) bought and sold. You need to look at what percentage they are implemented.
      Public debt counter
      http://webdiscover.ru/v/22301
      Yield of American bonds (State debt is the same)
      http://ru.investing.com/rates-bonds/usa-government-bonds
      The yield on five-year securities is only 1.456%; Only 1.456% of the loan rate is with the US government. Yes, all the enterprises of our country would have strangled themselves at such a rate on loans.
  19. Senior manager
    Senior manager 18 January 2016 12: 12 New
    0
    I am inclined to the opinion of Leontiev, the modern financial and economic market is a pyramid, the Fed's printing press that works for wear and tear, a direct confirmation of this. The dollar, purely at the psychological level, is losing confidence in the world. By speculating and creating instability in world finances, the United States is trying to maintain the dollar’s ​​position despite the current situation. And so that the fragments of the pyramid would not bury the creators lay out, now, the burden on the whole world. And yet - to consider who where what a huge amount of dough cut down smacks of an ordinary toad.
  20. fa2998
    fa2998 18 January 2016 12: 48 New
    +3
    Quote: bronik
    They play the whole pack against Russia.

    And it’s possible in more detail! Over the past 7 years, Russia has increased oil production by 40 million tons (from 494 to 534 million tons). Daily production in Russia has reached 10,8 million barrels! So in the total world overproduction (1,5 million .barr. \ day) -Russia’s share is substantial. And this is in case of falling prices. And it’s not going to cut it (plans for 2016 are 533-534 million tons). Let OPEC cut it, but we don’t! There are suspicions that there will be oil 20 bucks they will strengthen the export-sell the country cheaply! negative hi fool
    1. PHANTOM-AS
      PHANTOM-AS 18 January 2016 15: 17 New
      +2
      Quote: fa2998
      ! There are suspicions that there will be oil for 20 bucks, they will still strengthen exports, they sell the country cheaply!

      Today, the ladies with the Cabinet decided to accelerate the privatization of state property.
      So, until they sell everything, they’ll not calm down. am
  21. Sasha75
    Sasha75 18 January 2016 13: 31 New
    +3
    Gas, oil belong to the people. This is clear. It is unclear why the people themselves sell them for such crazy money.
  22. Kleon
    Kleon 18 January 2016 15: 13 New
    +2
    In 2014, the share of the oil and gas sector in the formation of the federal budget was not 10% and not 70%, but 57%. Share in the consolidated budget, i.e. federal plus regional budgets - 31%.
  23. vladimirvn
    vladimirvn 18 January 2016 15: 30 New
    0
    And who else? They keep him for this. laughing
    Quote: Alexander Romanov
    And Medvedev is to blame for all this.