The modern confrontation between the West and Russia can, in fact, be assessed as Washington’s actions aimed at putting pressure on the destruction of the state, not completed in 1991, to the limit. history name of the USSR. What then stopped the United States, because they had the opportunity to finally crush the once strong enemy? Misunderstanding such a sudden overwhelming success? Fear of nuclear response weapons? Or maybe an underestimation of the enemy's potential for self-regeneration or any other reasons became the reason for this “under-supply”? But it does not matter. But another thing is important - Washington started the second round, realizing that the matter must be brought to the end and Carthage must be completely destroyed. Many military analysts point out that over the past decade and a half, the States have been striving hard to implement the strategic environment of Russia. Work is underway to divide Russian society along ethnic, religious and territorial lines. Moreover, the USA is the organizer of economic pressure on Russia, using all the levers they have. Washington is trying to draw Moscow into local military conflicts while solving a complex set of ideological, economic, political and military tasks. Now more than ever, Moscow needs to be careful and think about each step well, analyzing all its actions for possible consequences in the near and far future. To clarify my words, I offer a brief overview of the military-political situation that has developed so far along the Russian borders.
When it comes to the northern borders of our state, in the imagination of open vast boundless arctic spaces, allowing to carry out an invasion from outside almost anywhere in the continental land. The US submarine fleet has the ability to operate in the entire Arctic Ocean. The Russian Arctic, in the long term, can be the scene of a serious confrontation because of its innumerable natural resources. If the northern maritime borders of the USSR, which converged in a triangle from the west and east at the North Pole, were not disputed, then Russia, the USSR’s successor, points to the existing international law of the sea, defining the notion of “territorial waters”, which is interpreted not in its favor.
In the Arctic, Russia's western neighbor, Norway, is part of NATO. On its territory are located military aircraft and radar stations of the alliance. To base aircraft and allied intelligence systems, primarily the United States, Norway provides its air bases and territory. Here, the alliance placed its large logistics centers and deployed a navigation system for fleet NATO. The Norwegian naval bases Ramsund, Trondenes, Sortland, which are located near the Russian border, provide their parking and docks for nuclear submarines in the United States and Great Britain.
Recently, the US has been actively deploying in Norway Tanks and armored personnel carriers. The question is why? The part of the land where the Norwegian-Russian border is located cannot be overcome by tanks, it is rugged terrain with many small rocks and placers of boulders, which are natural reliable anti-tank barriers. But to the south - Finnish territories are relatively passable for tanks, but Finland is not a member of the alliance, at least for now. Finnish borders may be transparent to NATO. But here, motorized formations cannot be deployed because of the terrain, it will be necessary to advance mainly in columns, if necessary, deploy in a battle formation to conduct local battles to a shallow depth. The main burden in such battles lies with the infantry, the American infantry is not adapted to operate in such conditions. This means that the calculation is made that there will be practically no defense lines here by the time of the intervention. The increase in the number of armored vehicles indicates the intention to conduct a ground operation, which is possible only if the "nuclear shield" of the Russian Federation is destroyed, which in itself is impossible, without mass betrayal. The Pentagon and US special services are apparently counting on the use of the scheme that they tested in Iraq in 2003, the impression is that they hope to repeat it in Russia. So it turns out that the armored vehicles stationed in Norway are designed to act after the collapse of Russia according to the Yugoslav scenario, in order to then complete the resistance of the disobedient groups of the population and the scattered remnants of the troops. The second option: all these weapons are just a window dress for influencing the Allies and justifying the huge costs incurred by the US military budget to the Capitol.
In the extreme east of the Arctic, the Russian and American lands are divided only by the Bering Strait, whose width is in the narrowest point of 86 km. But the transfer of ground forces to Chukotka will do little for the United States, both operatively and tactically, and strategically, they will simply be lost in the vastness of this vast region. Again, I remind you that this landing is possible only in the event of the complete destruction of Russia's strategic nuclear forces.
Moscow is conducting preemptive actions and is currently deploying a network of military bases in the Russian Arctic, which are subordinated to the newly created joint strategic command (USC) North, to which forces and assets are transferred from the Eastern and Central military districts. The Northern Fleet is also subordinate to it, and in its structure additional formations of land forces and air defense forces are completed.
Syrian free army shells enemy positions. Reuters Photos
Finland is a relatively young independent state, which became so by the decision of the Bolsheviks who came to power in October 1917 in St. Petersburg. Then, during the four wars that Finland waged, first against the RSFSR, and then against the USSR, the modern Russian-Finnish border was formed. The initiator and occupier in the wars from 30 December 1918 th to 14 October 1920 th, and then after a short break from 6 November 1920 th to 21 March 1922, was Finland. The third war, which took place with a short break from 30 in November 1939 to 12 in March 1940, began the Soviet Union. And in the fourth war from 25 June 1941 to September 19 1944, Finland fought against the USSR on the side of Nazi Germany. In the postwar years, the government in Helsinki led a balanced policy toward its eastern neighbor, which cannot be said about what is happening now. So far, the relations between our countries do not cause much concern, but it is worth thinking about the statements of some Finnish politicians about the possibility of joining NATO.
Cases with the Baltic former Soviet republics are much more complicated. It should start with Estonia. It happened so that its eastern territories, these primordially Russian lands, including the ancient Russian city of Yuriev, which since 1920 was called Tartu, were occupied in 1918, not even by Estonians, but by the Finns with German support, but they were inherited by the newly created puppet state of Estonia. It is not clear why, in the future, the Soviet government headed by the Communists did not return these lands to the rightful owner, that is, Russia. Tallinn’s unfair policy towards the Russian population of these lands is doubly unfair if it is carried out by Estonians against the indigenous population. And now, as they say, "the train is gone." Modern Estonia is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. Its army, as well as the armies of other former Soviet republics and countries of the former participants of the Warsaw Pact, militarily do not represent anything, for NATO they are more likely ballast than even bad participants. But the value of these countries is that, pursuing an unfriendly policy towards Russia, they have become a kind of ideological wall - an obstacle in establishing relations between our country and Europe. In addition, the United States was able to place troops in the territories of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, create operational storage facilities for ammunition and military equipment, as well as master the theater of military operations in numerous exercises, formally attracting completely useless and inefficient Baltic states to them. And most importantly, the distance for NATO forces was significantly reduced to reach the main political centers of Russia in the event of an intervention, a little more than 100 km from St. Petersburg, and a little more than 600 km from the border town of Zilupe to Moscow. When deploying air defense and anti-missile defense systems on the territory of the Baltic states, NATO has an ephemeral, but still a chance to shoot down Russian ballistic intercontinental missiles at the initial stage of their flight and at launch, the fact is that after climbing and dividing warheads, there are no longer any opportunities. NATO also gets some advantages when deploying strategic offensive weapons in the Baltic countries.
Under the pretext that Russia allegedly threatens the territorial integrity of NATO members, Washington places armored vehicles on their territory, which can be used again only if Russia forfeits its “nuclear shield” and air defense and anti-missile defense forces. But even if we assume that the NATO forces succeeded in this and they won complete air supremacy, the combat capability of our ground forces and the stamina of the Russian soldier would cost the aggressor with irreplaceable, huge losses. Moreover, NATO will have to throw its best troops into battle in order not to lose the war on land, and to use the forces of the Baltic countries, Poland, Romania and other former members of the Warsaw Pact only for solving secondary tasks. Let me remind you that the Romanian and Hungarian troops who fought on the Eastern front of the Wehrmacht in the 1941 – 1945 war were not able to solve a single combat mission on their own and suffered disproportionately large losses than the Germans. Facts from recent history indicate the strength of the Polish soldier when the Polish army lost the Nazi Germany's war in one month in the 1939 year, showing complete incapacity.
The impossibility of direct deterrence of Russia by military methods, the necessity of which Pentagon generals have openly spoken for the past two years, forces Washington to act in a roundabout way in order to maintain its global domination. Hence the endless attempts to draw Russia, its main enemy, into the so-called proxies. The Ukrainian events are a direct confirmation of this, overseas intelligence services here, with the support of their politicians, worked very energetically, but they did not achieve their goal of forcing Russia to fight against the south-western neighbor. What contributed to the forces of the West plunge Ukraine into the state in which it is now?
At the end of the XIX century, the political leadership of Austria-Hungary began to implement the project "Ukraine", which was undertaken to divide the population of its border areas of northern Bukovina and Galicia with its related Little Russians, subjects of the Russian emperor. The following facts contributed to the success of this project: the Eastern Slavs of northern Bukovina and Galicia were not at odds with the Poles, especially with the Polish gentry, and Vienna acted as a defender of the rights of the peoples of this part of Russia, the second - the population had previously been converted to Uniatism, that is, there was some interfaith contradiction with the Orthodox Little Russians. Next, the German occupation authorities repeated this project, creating a puppet state of the UPR on the captured lands of Little Russia, which kept only on German bayonets and existed from April 29 to December 14 1918 of the year. After leaving the government of Hetman Skoropadsky from the political arena, power in the central and western Little Russia passed into the hands of the Directory. 1 November 1918 of the year in eastern Galicia was formed ZUNR, which became part of the UNR 22 January 1919 of the year. By October, the 1919 th Directory ceased to exist.
Simultaneously with the events described, the incomprehensible happened: the Bolsheviks also decided to implement their project Ukraine, which ended with the creation of the Ukrainian SSR, it was thanks to these actions of the Soviet government that three concepts were finally established: "Ukrainian Republic", "Ukrainian people" and "Ukrainian language". The first serious mistake of the Communists led to a number of others, as a result of which, at the time of secession from the USSR, Ukraine received vast territories that it could not rightly own, namely: Chernihiv and Kharkiv regions, Donbass, Kherson, Nikolaev and Odessa regions, Transcarpathia and Crimea. Speaking of the Crimea, the Black Sea coast and Bessarabia, Russia conquered them from Turkey at the end of the 18th century, and there was no idea that they would be transferred to another country, but this happened for a number of inexplicable reasons.
Moreover, thanks to the activity of the BKP (b), and then the CPSU after the collapse of the Union, Ukraine gained most of the military-industrial complex, the most developed industry in the USSR and the agrarian complex, the strongest raw material complex, the most powerful ground forces and not inferior to them by the Air Force, since Kiev had at its disposal military equipment, weapons and ammunition depots of Kiev and part of the Odessa military districts, the strongest in the USSR. As a result of the activities of Western intelligence services or other forces, it does not matter now, but after 25 years passed after the separation from the USSR, Ukraine turned into a bankrupt country with a completely collapsed army. It was in this field that the cereals that over the past decades have been intensively cultivated in this country by both local politicians and the well-wishers of the West have grown. Now for the American hawks, Ukraine is a magnificent base from which it is possible to wage an ideological, economic, political, informational, and possibly military offensive against Russia. The Americans in haste arm and train the militia, which the current Kiev pathetically calls the Armed Forces of Ukraine (APU). Since modern Ukraine has disowned its Soviet past, then it turns out that victories in the military way of the past of the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be seen, the most striking event, perhaps, is the participation of the Ukrainian SS volunteer division “Galicia” in the counter attack against the Wehrmacht 13 the advancing forces of the 1 of the Ukrainian Front, and it was 15 July 1944 of the year. This counterattack lasted half a day and choked, barely starting, and the German corps, together with Ukrainian volunteers, fell into the cauldron. For the rest of the time, the division had participated only in punitive operations and actions to destroy the Jewish people in the lands occupied by the Germans.
The experience of military operations in the Donbass indicates the weakness and lack of organization of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The teachings of overseas instructors are of little help. Descendants of punishers, like their ancestors, are more convenient to engage in actions of intimidation against the civilian population than to fight on the battlefield. That is why they have such negative results in the war with the militia of the Russian-speaking population in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The Russian Supreme Commander Vladimir Putin noted very precisely: “It’s a shame for the Ukrainian authorities to lose to yesterday’s miners and tractor drivers.” Of course, Kiev temporary workers more convenient to lie that they are at war with Russia than to admit their weakness in the war against the people's militia. Moreover, it is not necessary to answer for this lie, and impunity, as is well known, corrupts. I have no doubt that the United States will squeeze out of Ukraine everything they can, will bring the game to some kind of lucrative limit, it’s no wonder they invest so much money and effort into it. It seems that Washington is not seeking to create a strong Ukrainian state. He needs a buffer unstable zone between Europe and Russia and a “poor freedom-loving nation,” allegedly oppressed by a powerful eastern neighbor, as a pretext for the possibility of further developing actions to contain Moscow.
A trailer for events in Ukraine can be considered a game around Transnistria. Here, Washington benefits from the ambitions of a militarily weak Romania, whose only defense is NATO membership. Over the past two decades, Bucharest has been carrying out plans for the absorption of Moldova and the annexation of Bessarabia and parts of northern Bukovina. The main trump card of the Romanians is that the annexed territories and their population will automatically become part of the European Union. What awaits the Russian-speaking citizens of Transnistria is easy to guess from the example of the Baltic countries and Ukraine. But Washington in this case mainly expects Russia to be drawn into the conflict with Europe with a kind of Moldovan mediation. Thus, the States, taking advantage of the situation created in Moldova and Ukraine, drive a reliable and long-lasting wedge between Brussels and Moscow. And only prudent, wise actions of the Russian political leadership can prevent this.
MIDDLE EAST GEOPOLITICAL GAMES
Middle Eastern affairs were only indirectly related to Russia until the Russian VKS began to launch rocket and bombing attacks on the positions and targets of the Islamic State (IG) recognized as a terrorist organization, which is banned in Russia) and other opposition groups in Syria.
American military instructors in the Ukrainian land. Reuters Photos
That phase of confrontation, which we are seeing now in the Middle East, began with the intervention of the United States and the coalition in Iraq in 2003. The fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime was followed by the actual secession of Iraqi Kurdistan and the emergence of Sunni resistance to the invaders, which was transformed over time into a terrorist movement that includes many separate underground organizations. Gradually, an interfaith confrontation of paramilitary militias of Sunni and other Islamic and near-Islam confessions arose in the region, which for some reason in Europe are indiscriminately recognized as Shiites. The situation was aggravated after the outbreak of an organized civil war in Syria. The apotheosis of all of the above was the emergence of the "Islamic state". Many experts note the purposeful activities of the US and British special services to create an environment of extreme instability in this region. All countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Turkey and Iran, are to some extent involved in the military confrontation. I think that I’m not mistaken if I say that the United States did everything in their power to draw Russia into this war. You do not need to be a visionary to assume that the United States will continue its work to further draw Russia into the Middle East meat grinder in order to force it to make irreparable mistakes.
America in the region simultaneously solves several problems. First, the most obvious: the belligerent countries of the region are either already depleted, or their depletion is predicted in the near future. Thus, the US plans to increase its influence in the Middle East, forcing weakened states to seek support overseas. The second: squeezing their competitors from the region. Third: the weakening of the Allies to increase their dependence on the United States. The latter task is solved both by the involvement of European countries in the war, and by the organization of an influx of refugees from the countries of the Middle East into the European Union. That may well lead to harsh measures by European governments towards migrants. Further, predictable outbreaks of extreme mass discontent among the refugees, to which the local population will respond with spontaneous acts of violence, and in one “perfect moment” the situation can get out of control. As a consequence, we can expect the emergence of serious contradictions between the countries of the Middle East and Europe - an attractive prospect for the United States.
If an interfaith big war in the region does break out, it will be serious and for a long time. As you know, religious wars just do not fade. As an example from the history of Europe, one can cite the Thirty Years' War of the Protestants against the Catholics of 1618 – 1648. No need to look for examples in the distant past, after the collapse of Yugoslavia, the most bloody clashes occurred precisely on the basis of inter-religious discord between Orthodox Serbs, Croat Catholics, and Muslims. In fact, the flywheel of a major religious war between Sunnis and Shiites is now spinning in the Middle East. Riyadh stands at the head of the Sunni coalition, seeks to occupy the Ankara championship in it, and at the head of the Shiite coalition is Tehran. It is not clear to what extent this conflict can develop if it is not stopped now. It seems that Washington plays an important role in its unwinding.
Recent events in Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq confirm this view. I would especially like to draw attention to the hostilities that have recently unfolded in the Iraqi province of Anbar. The fact is that the modern Iraqi army is a Shiite militia, and the designated province is inhabited by Sunni tribes that support the “Islamic State”, which is fighting in Iraq against Shiites, Kurds and coalition forces. On Sunni lands, Shiite Iraqi troops feel insecure, hence the unsuccessful attempt to seize the city of Ramadi and the futility of efforts to seize the entire province. In fact, we are witnessing the division of Iraq, and at the same time Syria according to national (if we are talking about Kurds) and confessional signs. In Syria, the Alawites, Shiites, and Ismailis act as a united front, with the support of part of the Christian militia in the fight against scattered units of the Sunni opposition, the largest of which is IG. All the variegated Sunni militia, without exception, has the support of Ankara, Riyadh and other Sunni Gulf countries. Moreover, an incomprehensible at first glance occurs: from the military aid of the West, the so-called moderate opposition gets a considerable part of those groups that are recognized by the West as extremist, including the Front al-Nusra and IG. Moreover, cases where military ammunition and equipment supplied from the United States and other coalition countries falls into the hands of extreme radicals occur with enviable periodicity and do not look like an accident.
The fact that the Turkish fighter shot down a Russian military aircraft over Syrian territory is a logical development of the events described. I do not doubt for a second that the US special services are behind this act. It is enough to understand who gets the most benefit from what happened. Russia and Turkey are clearly the losers. Erdogan overseas allies caught on the momentary need to win parliamentary elections, and he took this rash step, not looking ahead, which characterizes him not in the best way. What did Washington get? Firstly, a reliable wedge is driven in between Moscow and Ankara with the prospect of developing the existing differences in military operations. Secondly, on this basis, ethnic strife is fomented in Russia. There are more than 12 million Türkic-speaking citizens in our country, many sympathize with Turkey as a country with similar language and cultural and religious traditions. Therefore, the steps of the Russian leadership should now be more balanced than ever. In no case can you project the pernicious activity of the Turkish leadership on the whole people. And to prevent persecution and domestic phobia against Turkish citizens and organizations, including actions like the one that the Turkish consulate in Rostov-on-Don was subjected to. Activities to incite national hatred have already been deployed in social networks, agree not to add fuel to the fire. Undoubtedly, the reaction to the aggressive actions of the Turkish government should be quite tough, but, I repeat, it should not concern the Turkish people, otherwise there is a danger to play according to the plan that the overseas special services have prepared for Russia.
CENTRAL ASIA KNOT
Western media predict a worsening of the situation in Afghanistan in 2016, and this despite the huge US spending on weapons, training and maintaining the combat capability of the army and police forces. There is a general desertion among the security forces, and those who remain in the ranks are poorly motivated to fulfill their official duties. At the same time, militarized formations of the IG of the province of Khorasan (the formal province of IG covering the east of Iran, southern Turkestan, Afghanistan, and northern Pakistan) are gaining strength. If that insignificant military contingent of NATO, which remained to support Kabul, leaves the country, the proteges of the United States will not be in power for a long time. The only force opposing the IS in the region will be the Taliban movement. The situation in Afghanistan has some similarities with the Syrian one in that the region is multi-confessional. A return to power of the Taliban will not lead to peace, as it has been previously. But with this outcome, there is a chance that the war will not spread to the north of the Afghan border, moreover, the Taliban fought fairly hard with the production of opiates. On the contrary, the victory of "IG" in the region means the inevitable threat of expansion of radical Islamists to the north, including within the borders of the Russian Federation. But one thing pleases: here the States themselves are not interested in the development of the situation according to the worst scenario.
It must be admitted that Russia has no allies in Afghanistan. The most sensible right now will be to closely monitor the situation in this region, since it makes no sense to support a pro-American government, to establish relations with the Taliban is dangerous, it’s enough not to annoy them and go beyond preventive actions in the CSTO. In addition, it is useful to establish work with Iranian partners who have allies in Afghanistan.
Japan’s territorial claims against Russia are getting tougher every year. Tokyo has long been trying to challenge the outcome of World War II. In particular, they require the transfer to their jurisdiction of the southern islands of the Kuril ridge: Iturup, Kunashir, Shikotan, Khabomai, as well as the southern part of Sakhalin Island. It would be wrong to make statements that Japan is ready to go by armed means. But, given that the self-defense forces of the Land of the Rising Sun have long turned into an impressive army and continue to improve and increase, and in September last year, the Japanese parliament passed a law allowing its troops to fight abroad, the possibility of using military force from Tokyo against neighbors became very likely . At present, the Japanese Self-Defense Forces comprise about 250 thousand personnel. Ground forces include five combined armies with a total strength of about 140 thousand people, have about 1000 tanks, the same number of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, more than 200 self-propelled guns, more than 1500 units of rocket and barreled artillery, including mortars, anti-aircraft and air defense systems. An army operates in the interests of the ground forces. aviation, which has about 500 helicopters for various purposes. The Japanese Air Force has more than 47 thousand personnel, is armed with about 760 aircraft and about 60 helicopters for various purposes. The fleet has 4 helicopter carriers, 40 destroyers of various classes, 6 frigates, 18 diesel-electric submarines of various classes, plus support ships and combat boats, which serve more than 45 thousand personnel. Such force cannot be ignored.
It is clear that Japan would hardly have allowed itself the statement of territorial claims without the approval of Washington. The United States has military bases in the Land of the Rising Sun and, in accordance with the treaty, will side with Tokyo, but only in the event of an enemy invading Japanese soil. In conflicts related to the territorial claims of Japan to its neighbors, America refuses to participate. Against this background, a slightly tense, but stable situation has developed between Moscow and Tokyo. There is no guarantee that it will not change.