Military Review

About mediation in the Iranian-Saudi conflict 2016

19
The question of mediation to relieve tensions in Iranian-Saudi relations, aggravated by the execution in January of this year, remains topical. Shiite politician Nimr Bakir al-Nimr. It was politics, not the preacher, since his activities and statements had little to do with the preaching.


Russia still 4 January launched an initiative to mediate sharply aggravated relations, which put rival countries in the region, Iran and Saudi Arabia, on the brink of war. Russian initiative was rejected. This initiative could not be accepted, since it is obvious that Iran in all respects is much closer to Russia than Saudi. The fact that this initiative would not be accepted was certainly understood in Smolensk Square, however it was necessary to observe polities, making a pacifying gesture, the blessing that we were trained in diplomatic rhetoric.

And yet, sooner or later, a mediator between Iran and Saudi will be needed. Who really can be a mediator in this situation? Everyone talks about Sunnis, everyone talks about Shiites, forgetting about one more equal course in Islam - the Kharijites. Who are Kharijites in the modern world? This is mainly the population of Oman. Sultan Qaboos bin Said occupies equidistant positions in all regional excesses, despite the fact that Oman is a member of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf, where Saudi is the leader. Oman did not join the pro-Saud coalition, which began bombing Yemen in 2015. And this is not because Yemen is a neighboring country. Oman did not break off diplomatic relations with Iran during the latest outbreak of tension in the region, as did many Saudi henchmen. And this is not because there are economic ties between Oman and Iran and cooperation projects are being developed in the military-technical sphere. It's all about the religious aspect.

The Kharijites are a trend in Islam that arose even before the rest of the Muslim mass was divided into Sunnis and Shiites. Kharijites appeared about 50 years earlier. However, there are very few of them, and they need to save themselves in this world.

In addition to Oman, the current Kharijites, the Ibadites, who are moderate Kharijites, live in the Maghreb countries. However, since in these countries they do not constitute the majority of the population, they cannot play any political role. Another thing is the Sultanate of Oman, where the head of state is also the imam of the community of believers. In addition, Sunnis and Shiites also live in Oman.

Thus, pursuing a neutral foreign policy in the region and without being biased from a religious point of view, Oman, like no other state, is suitable for the role of mediator in the current Iranian-Saudi conflict.
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  1. Evgesh91
    Evgesh91 17 January 2016 04: 35 New
    0
    the question is, how much does he need it? in my opinion, Oman can rise on its own between the Saudis and Iran ...
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 17 January 2016 05: 07 New
      0
      Do we really need this? Mediation is when the intermediary has the opportunity to receive some dividends. We are all “in a hurry” to take part when in the fray between the two fighting, the “hearer rakes” from both ... what

      One would like to ask: "But is everything calm in the Russian kingdom, there are no unsolved problems?"
      1. Same lech
        Same lech 17 January 2016 05: 34 New
        +4
        One would like to ask: "But is everything calm in the Russian kingdom, there are no unsolved problems?"


        Today, in RUSSIA, the biggest problem is the dominance of economic liberals ... the export of capital from the country every year is about 100 billion rubles ... of course, corruption, the fall of the ruble and a host of other smaller but equally important problems.
        At the moment, KREMLYU should concentrate precisely on these problems, otherwise they will begin to grow like an avalanche in a crisis and inevitably cause a serious conflict in our society ...
        1. Tatyana
          Tatyana 17 January 2016 05: 36 New
          +3
          The sweetest thing is, of course, if the religious states of the Middle East themselves peacefully dispersed. But this will not happen. Firstly, Shiites are not only in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the matter will not do without confrontation between Sunnis and Shiites only in these two states. The religious and political conflict in the region will diverge, as if from an abandoned stone, water circles in all countries. Secondly, religious fanatics are generally bad and unproductive to deal with. Fanatics radically want privileges only for themselves - and this is an endless war with rare and short cease-fires.
          It is unlikely that Oman will get into this surge of religious confrontation at the level of state policy and set itself on fire by the negotiation process for an illusory world.
          Most likely, Oman will now continue to remain neutral, since the benefits in general are still not visible to Oman in this conflict, because, as they say, "a gentle calf sucks two queens"
          1. cap
            cap 17 January 2016 06: 08 New
            +8
            Quote: Tatiana
            It is unlikely that Oman will get into this surge of religious confrontation at the level of state policy and set fire to itself by the negotiation process for an illusory world.
            Most likely, Oman will now continue to remain neutral, since I don’t see much benefit for Oman so far in this conflict, because, as they say, “a gentle calf sucks two queens”

            A reference to the author’s message (below), after which you can agree with the conclusions of the article. True, after that I had to conclude for myself that against the backdrop of the Arab monarchies, the proposed version of the arbitrator for the parties to the conflict, speaking in Russian ... ". the plants are different, and the taste is equally bitter ”
            “The ideology of the Kharijites is based on the thesis“ La Tahkima Illya Lillah ”(Allah has the right to judge), which rejects the idea of ​​any attempts at a civilized solution to political or religious problems. The main means of proving their innocence, the Kharijites consider armed struggle and the physical elimination of opponents. In general, being Sunnis, the Kharijites were more strict about the religious and personal behavior of Muslims. The main point of their ideology was the statement about the equality of Arabs and non-Arabs within the Ummah, and the caliph had to be chosen among the most worthy candidates, but his power should be limited. So, the caliph had the right only to the executive branch. Judicial and legislative power, according to the Kharijits, should have belonged to the council (Shura). The Kharijites balanced their major and minor sins in their ideology, killing anyone who committed a sin, whose offense would be proved, equating the commission of sin with apostasy. In general, the Kharijites gave the impression of extremely devout Muslims, often praying and fasting, which did not prevent them, however, from killing the Companions of the Prophet, accusing them of unbelief. ”
            Something like that hi
            1. Sorokin
              Sorokin 17 January 2016 07: 22 New
              +1
              Thanks for the help. That’s what I’ve heard about before.
            2. APASUS
              APASUS 17 January 2016 17: 23 New
              0
              Quote: cap
              A reference to the author’s message (below), after which you can agree with the conclusions of the article. True, after that I had to conclude for myself that against the backdrop of the Arab monarchies, the proposed version of the arbitrator for the parties to the conflict, speaking in Russian ... ". the plants are different, and the taste is equally bitter. ”“ The ideology of the Kharijites is based on the thesis “La Tahkima Illya Lillah” (Allah has the right to judge), which rejects the idea of ​​any attempts to civilize political or religious problems.

              I don’t believe at all that you can be a mediator in resolving a religious conflict. At the same time, the participating countries are doing everything to enter into a military conflict. Now there is not even a hint of the possibility of at least some kind of dialogue!
              If the Arab world had an unconditional authoritative mediator of war, there simply wouldn’t be!
              1. Talgat
                Talgat 17 January 2016 19: 46 New
                +1
                In fact, we all understand. that this is not a “religious conflict” and “fanatics” have nothing to do with it

                Religion or culture or language has never been a cause - just an excuse

                For example, Poles will never be Russian brothers - although the Slavs and the language are similar. Pan-Turkism is also a "myth" and so on and so forth.

                There are real underlying reasons - these are the vital interests of states and their survival. This is primarily Geopolitics - belonging to one side or another

                Iran and Saudis belong to different sides and will never be reconciled - Saudis together with Qatar Beards of the USA and the West
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. The black
      The black 17 January 2016 07: 18 New
      +2
      To be a successful intermediary, you need to have at least two things. FIRST - this is international authority (weight, if you like), which Oman and SECOND lack - to what extent this role was previously prepared through informal contacts, if any. If mediation is not accepted by at least one of the parties, the mission will inevitably fail, which will hit the image of the intermediary country. So, before playing this role, you need to calculate everything, both from the political perspective and from the point of view of economic, for us, benefits.
  2. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 17 January 2016 04: 35 New
    +5
    Is there really a little neutral country in the Middle East? This is gut. They know the alignment, the "players" - too, they are in the hands of cards. Let them try to resolve this difficult situation, "attempt is not torture." Any positive options are acceptable in solving this Middle East problem.
    1. BARKHAN
      BARKHAN 17 January 2016 12: 37 New
      +2
      Quote: LÄRZ
      Is there really a little neutral country in the Middle East? This is gut. They know the alignment, the "players" - too, they are in the hands of cards. Let them try to resolve this difficult situation, "attempt is not torture." Any positive options are acceptable in solving this Middle East problem.

      Perhaps a flurry of disapproval will come to my senses ... But I will express my thought ... The more I delve into the problems of the Middle East, the less difference I see in all these Bedouins ... Sheer insidiousness and betrayal, ignorance and medievalism, cruelty and violence ... Sometimes I have the idea that this whole territory, and indeed Africa, needs to be "rolled up," cleaned up and disarmed completely. Any sign of aggression is suppressed in a brutal way. Which incidentally was done to Saddam and Gaddafi ...
      And what the NATO and I are doing now is sorting out bad camels from very bad ones ...
      I don’t see any probable chance of imposing democracy or a European way of life in these sands. These people are mentally incapable of living in our civilization. When there are few of them, they will smile out of fear. When there are thousands of them (an example is now in person in Europe) they will pass like locusts, destroying everything in its path.
      When the Colorado potato beetle begins to eat potatoes, it is "fed" with poison, and no milehlundy.
      There is another option, to enclose them with a fence and supply only products and consumer goods in exchange for oil, no military equipment and weapons, and let them understand and share there ...
      If anyone else has some sort of a “settlement” plan, please tell me ...
      1. BARKHAN
        BARKHAN 17 January 2016 12: 57 New
        +2
        Here, another thought-provoking ...
        “In Berlin, three people, allegedly migrants from the Middle East, raped a girl from a Russian-speaking family. This is described in the plot of Channel One on January 16.
        A child (Genosse.su site claims to be a 13-year-old girl from a family of Russian Germans) disappeared on his way to school on the morning of January 11th. She got on the bus and drove to the S Bahn Mahlsdorf station (city train). She did not enter the station lobby. She was found a day later on the street.
        The girl’s aunt shared that a foreigner, similar to a native of the Middle East, approached her niece and offered to give a ride to school. When she got into the car, she saw that the man was not alone there. “The child said that there was only one bed in the apartment and the mattress was lying on the floor. There was nothing else in the apartment. That's all, they threw her onto the bed and committed their deeds. There were three of them. They were from visitors, ”said a relative of the victim.
        She added that after 30 hours, the girl, beaten and raped, was thrown into the street.
        According to the victim’s family, the police refused to look for criminals. The uncle of the girl claims that the child was interrogated for three hours without parents and a social worker, and then did not begin to institute criminal proceedings. The Berlin police failed to get a comment for the First journalists. "
        7
        Read more: https://eadaily.com/news/2016/01/17/migranty-v-berline-nadrugalis-nad-devochkoy-
        iz-russkogovoryashchey-semi
  3. SSR
    SSR 17 January 2016 05: 01 New
    0
    So many articles and opinions on this subject had to be read ....... The fact remains that Russia came to the B East and came as a decisive force, many have to realize and accept this to one degree or another and the Saudis are no exception when time passes the compliance stage of the “politeness” will end and the real action will begin, but gaps are being prepared for it and they are being looked for.
    1. yuriy55
      yuriy55 17 January 2016 05: 15 New
      0
      I really want Russia to come to B. Vostok step by step to defend its interests, bring to the end the solution of one problem and only after that proceed to the solution of the next. It’s one thing when they demonstrate the “Force that solves issues” with a fist punch, and in a completely different way they consider strokes with a spread palm ...
      In our case, there is more than enough support for an “interesting side” in terms of armaments ...
  4. VNP1958PVN
    VNP1958PVN 17 January 2016 05: 19 New
    +1
    It would be better if Iran trampled the Saudis without any intermediaries. We, and the entire Middle East, would only benefit!
  5. dchegrinec
    dchegrinec 17 January 2016 05: 54 New
    +3
    The eternal problem of mankind: everyone wants to become kings, but others do not want to! And equality is akin to dictatorship, because everyone wants to stand out. This cycle can never be overcome. Equilibrium is obtained through fear.
  6. Thunderbolt
    Thunderbolt 17 January 2016 06: 07 New
    +1
    Iran will behave as a humble boy --- after all, it is lifted from sanctions and does not need an open conflict. Now it only wants to throw as much of its hydrocarbons into the world market as possible. An open conflict with the whole Arab coalition does not shine for Iran. stronger players can play on the Arabs' side (able to remotely chop Persian nuts) .Therefore, tension in BV hot spots will remain, but there is no direct big war in the near term. SA doesn’t need it. Security and safety in the kingdom are not mountains of modern weapons, but the mood of the subjects themselves and the stability of the throne. All problems cannot be poured with a golden stream. Yes, and the stream runs dry.
    1. LÄRZ
      LÄRZ 17 January 2016 07: 50 New
      +2
      Quote: Thunderbolt
      . Therefore, the tension in the hot spots of the BV will continue, but no direct big war is expected in the near term.

      In fact, everyone on BV "walks on a white thread." Someone has the wrong step, a rash act and confrontation will rise above the roof. stop
  7. Leprekon
    Leprekon 17 January 2016 06: 37 New
    0
    Informative article, especially with clarification cap, for which he also thanks, but, lies in the mainstream of the manner of the Western media. After all, it was there that people were used to raising problems with a kind of ready-made or instructive solution, as they say - "with your Bible in your pocket." But the question is, but the Sultan of Oman, "it" is necessary, he still has "his own head on his shoulders"?
  8. mir2014
    mir2014 17 January 2016 07: 25 New
    +4
    Dear VO readers! Forgive me in advance for posting not on the forum, and not on the topic of this discussion, but I could not find where my appeal could be published there! Forgive me and the moderator of your site. In Perm, a former Afghan warrior Alexander, who had been deprived of his home by his own brother, lived on a heating pipe in the city of Perm. This is a terrible human tragedy when his own family betrays him! And how difficult it is sometimes to find truth and justice in order to prove their case, and even more so for people who have gone through the war. They are not used to bothering themselves with bureaucrats! They are used to protecting another! In Ural frosts this man simply lived and slept on a pipe in a jacket and boots without socks! I feel that there is hope to bring him back to life, and he himself really wants this! He is a calm, balanced, ready-to-work man! There is help. High-class electrician! With great difficulty, he was able to arrange it on January 16.01.2016, 22 in the center of social adaptation of Perm on XNUMXa Taborskaya St. (popularly called a shelter for the homeless)
    Help is needed in the restoration of documents for retirement, assistance with housing. Please respond to caring hearts, especially Perm! I will be grateful for your help and waiting for your feedback!