Military Review

Korea. Standoff start 2016 of the year

67



foreword

The test of the North Korean hydrogen bomb again sharply raised the question of a possible war on the peninsula. 13 January President of the Republic of Korea Park Geun Hyo called for the introduction of full-scale sanctions against North Korea by the world community. If her initiative is supported in the UN Security Council, Pyongyang will face the prospect of an economic catastrophe, to which he will have to respond, including, perhaps, by military means.

Contrary to popular belief, the conflict potential of the Far East is much higher than the analogous parameter, say, the Middle East. Discussing the recent confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, political observers spoke too boldly about a possible war, ignoring the fact that Iran’s military industry remains very backward, and the Saudis do not have it at all - respectively, the entire conflict was exhausted at the start.

In East Asia, the situation is different, despite the fact that the contradictions there are so irreconcilable, and the mutual claims are even more inveterate. Here, even medium-sized states wisely strive for maximum localization of military production in domestic capacities. Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia and even Myanmar are actively developing naval shipbuilding and other promising areas. So, to create and maintain a major conflict, this region fits better than any other. The Korean Peninsula and its immediate environs are full of the military presence of various powers. It is possible that Northeast Asia is the most militarized region in the world.

In a heightened confrontation, the situation of all parties to the conflict resembles a frozen portrait of athletes before the start. Within six months, the situation will change as design offices, factories and shipyards will produce even more products that will be able to influence the outcome of the conflict. The advantage here is for those who have a stronger economy, more resources and more rational use of time, which in any war is much more expensive than gold.


South Korea

The Republic of Korea is one of the few countries that may even be interested in escalating. Judging by the actions of Seoul, the country's political leadership is confident that if in the worst case scenario the enemy erases two or three South Korean cities from the face of the earth in nuclear fire (which, by the way, is very unlikely), the final victory will still be with the US-Korean forces. This confidence has its reasons. Today, South Korea may well claim the status of a regional great power. Compared to Japan, where restrictions on the size of the army and the quality of weapons still exist, the South Korean leadership limits its own military ambitions only to budget and imagination. The economic power of the South is dozens, and in some respects, hundreds of times higher than all that the North can scrape together, and the developed transport infrastructure allows mobilization to be carried out in the shortest possible time. Quite a lot has been written about Korea’s ground forces and their equipment in detail - in our case, it’s enough to recall that this is a huge army of 495 soldiers and officers, owning thousands of military vehicles and hundreds of units (not counting those that are part of the Air Force and the Marine aviation) helicopters.

Seoul also places great emphasis on the landing fleet. In addition to the 4 large tank landing ships of the Go Joon Bong class (4300 tons), built in the 1990s, and the Udok Doctorate (18 tons), an ambitious program for the construction of four tank landing craft Chon Wang Bong, with a displacement of 000 tons . In addition, we must not forget about the huge shopping navy South Korea, which can be mobilized. The general plan is clear - in addition to land breakthroughs across the border fortified areas, large landings will be planted away from the main theater of operations. The number of the Marine Corps of South Korea is 29 people according to 000. For comparison, the marine corps of the Russian Federation in the same year totaled 2014 according to some data, and 20 according to others.

In addition, the Republic of Korea has a group of unsinkable aircraft carriers, looming over the coast of the enemy. These are the islands of Pennon-do, Techon-do and Enphyon-do, whose strategic location makes it possible to threaten the entire west coast of North Korea.

In general, if a big war starts tomorrow, then Seoul is ready for it and the degree of this readiness grows from year to year. Outdated weapons are written off and replaced with new ones. The only area in which South Koreans have not yet achieved success is missile defense. In addition to ballistic missiles, the threat to the southerners is the backward, but numerous submarine fleet of the DPRK - almost all of South Korea’s foreign trade goes precisely by sea.


DPRK

Awareness of the real lag behind South Korea in conventional weapons has led the DPRK to the need to develop its own nuclear program. However, the incredible efforts invested in the creation of nuclear weaponsmay go to dust. In addition, the use of such indiscriminate weapons will not save the North Korean regime, but only delay its fall.

Not much is known about the DPRK army. It is known that she is one of the largest in number, but she spends most of her time not in military training, but in work for the benefit of the national economy. The armament of this army comes mostly from the 1950-1970's, despite the fact that in a modern war even a difference of one generation can be considered critical in some cases.

Of course, the Korean People’s Army also has relatively modern weapons, but in a critically small quantity. For example, the domestic main battle tank M-2002 (aka, "Songun-915"), armed with an 125-mm cannon, 14,5 mm with a machine gun and anti-tank missile systems Bulsae-3. Or (according to information from network sources) a number of Russian BTR-80А that were purchased in the Russian Federation two decades ago.

In aviation, the situation is just as bleak. The Air Force can boast only three dozens of relatively new MiG-29 fighters and about the same number of Su-25 attack aircraft, the rest of the aircraft fleet is MiG-21, Su-7, Il-28 and similar rarities. With helicopters, the situation is not much better. The task of such an “aviation” is apparently, heroically dying on airfields or taking off in the first days of battles, diverting the attention of the Air Force of the Republic of Korea, after which the DPRK soldiers again, as in the last war, will have to dig underground tunnel systems to escape from enemy attacks from the air.



Essentially, all the hopes of the central government in Pyongyang can be focused only on the fact that in the event of war, the population and the army will show sufficient resilience and not scatter in the very first weeks when the superiority of the enemy in all areas becomes apparent. For the same reason, North Korea does not benefit from the escalation of border conflicts into a full-scale war, although the regime cannot completely abandon provocations - it receives a large portion of resources from outside due to blackmail. Yes, and the internal political situation requires maintaining a certain tone. In the event of war, the DPRK has a chance to hold out for some time only at the northernmost frontier in the high mountainous part of the country.


Japan


For Japan, conflict is desirable and undesirable at the same time. Yes, from the first Korean War, Tokyo made a considerable profit, becoming the largest foreign contractor of the US Army, which indirectly served as one of the reasons for the Japanese economic miracle. Yes, now such investments would not prevent the Japanese economy, if not for the obvious costs.

And the costs are considerable - participation in the war. Even if Kim Jong-un is not so inadequate to launch ballistic missiles in the cities of Japan, his submarines may well paralyze all maritime trade in the region for a while.

Participation in the ground campaign on the Korean Peninsula Tokyo is not interesting for three reasons. First, technically it will be extremely difficult. Japan has no marines and only three Osumi-class amphibious assault ships - the rest have been scrapped long ago. Secondly, South Korea is an ally of the United States and the new Korean War will be a struggle to advance Washington’s interests in Asia. There are no particular interests in Tokyo, but to send the Self-Defense Forces to die for the Americans - their own people simply will not understand this and for any prime minister this will be the end of a political career.
Thirdly, the ruling circles and the population in South Korea are categorically against any Japanese military intervention. This topic is regularly raised in the Korean political debate, despite the fact that Tokyo itself is not eager to intervene.

The 2016 year in Japan is scheduled to begin production of the Maneuver Combat Vehicle combat vehicles, as well as the purchase of the first batch of American amphibians AAVP-7A1s for the Ground Self-Defense Forces. This year the fleet intends to test the XASM-3 supersonic cruise missile, and next year 2017 will test the SM-3 Block 2A (4,5 km / s speed, 1500 km range) and complete the design of the new 27DD destroyer. The Japanese military budget for the 2016 year also included the purchase of X-NUMX fighters F-6A Lighting II, 35 converters V-4 Osprey, 22 Mitsubishi SH-17K helicopters, and the launch of three or more RQ-60 unmanned aerial systems, and the use of the RH-4 unmanned aerial communications rotor, the company’s unshared RQ-46, and their own unshipped RQ-XNUMX, and their own unlocked RQ-XNUMX RV-XNUMX RV-XNUMX RV-XNUMX RV-XNUMX fighter jets. air tanker tankers KC-XNUMXA. And this is only part of what they plan to purchase in Tokyo.

While all these programs are in the process of execution, Tokyo will try not to get involved in a conflict - this is at least two years.

China

China is another country totally not interested in a big war on the peninsula. Beijing is currently lacking other problems: economic recession, a grand anti-corruption campaign, large-scale military reform, elections and the consolidation of separatism in Taiwan. Of course, in Beijing they would agree to a small victorious war, but everyone understands that the war in Korea will not be neither small nor victorious. In addition, China has its own “South Korea” - talking about the Taiwanese island of Kinmen, which is located just 7 (!!!) km from mainland China, which is much more suitable for victorious wars.

Given Beijing’s prudent policy, as well as its generally cool relations with the DPRK, all that Pyongyang can count on is the supply of Chinese weapons, and the limited participation of China's military experts. Nobody in China will start a global war with an unknown outcome for the sake of the DPRK - the strategy to refrain from conflicts until the 2020 year will continue to work. At the same time, the border between China and North Korea, which is now practically (!) Open for free movement of citizens in both directions, can be easily locked by PLA forces from the Chinese side, if the situation starts to take a completely unpleasant turn.

Russia

Another country that does not benefit from aggravation, or, especially, the war on its very borders is Russia. Having a slightly frozen conflict in Ukraine and the overseas front in Syria, to which even the flagship of the Pacific Fleet, the cruiser Varyag, was urgently deployed, it would be madness to try to penetrate into the third conflict. The Russian Federation will not defend the DPRK in any event of development, since the North Korean regime is neither its client nor ally. At the same time, we must not forget that Seoul has never refused claims to the Noktundo region, which was once part of the Joseon state, and now is part of the Primorsky Territory of the Russian Federation.

However, it is not worthwhile to exaggerate the threat - at the very least, there will be only crazy shells from the adjacent territory. In general, the conflict of any size on the Korean Peninsula can be considered for Russia as a deep peripheral and not a threat. These threats may appear later, years later, but not during or immediately after the war.


Why not start?


Starting a war, even with a great desire, it is extremely difficult. Even with the victory for the Republic of Korea, the economy will squeeze very much - investors do not like war - and Asian competitors will throw it out of many markets. The degree of support that Washington is ready to provide is not clear. The Obama administration has already proven that it is ready to set fire to conflicts, but is not going to participate in them. This new feature of US foreign policy, which first appeared during the war against Libya, unpleasantly surprised American allies around the world. Of course, if desired, Seoul can cope on its own, but without the Americans it will be noticeably harder to do it. If, say, President Bush the Younger, without hesitation, would give the necessary order, easily getting Congress approval for the use of the army, then with the current leader everything is not so simple.

To date, 28 500 American troops are deployed in Korea, but if necessary, this contingent can be significantly strengthened by reinforcements from Japan and Guam. The armies of the two countries — the USA and South Korea — are maximally integrated and brought into uniform standards. A separate and very interesting structure is the KATUSA (Korean Augmentation To the United States Army), which, in essence, is the American Foreign Legion in Korea. These are the Korean Army servicemen who wear the American uniform, they know English, American regulations and equipment better. There is not a single publication about this program in Runet, although it has existed since 1950, and has achieved some success.



KATUSA military in American uniform



Results and prospects

That war is inevitable is an obvious fact. Another thing is that it most likely will not start in 2016 year. Although there is no guarantee that it will not start the other day, no one will give it with certainty. The parties have demonstrated uncompromising in the past, and now in both countries there are leaders burdened by the memory of the successes of their glorious ancestors. The personal factor is not the last one. Park Geun-hye, the current president of the Republic of Korea, is the daughter of the legendary Pak Jong-hee, from whom the Korean economic miracle began. You can also remember a lot about the father and grandfather of the current leader of the DPRK. So personal motives here play an important role.

Looking back into history, it is safe to say that in the 1950-s of the DPRK, it remained on the political map solely due to the massive Soviet-Chinese military intervention. Today Pyongyang cannot count on such “fraternal assistance”.

In general, we repeat, it is in the 2016 year that we should be skeptical about the prospects for war. In the more distant future, its probability increases. The “remote perspective” should be understood as the period in the next 3-5 years, the maximum is 10, that is, by the time of the final destabilization of the existing world order, which surprisingly coincides with the end dates of many programs of rearmament of the South Korean armed forces.

The main idea of ​​uniting the two Koreas has not disappeared from the political agenda of Seoul, not from the public consciousness. In addition, a significant part of the natural resources of the Korean Peninsula is concentrated in the North. In addition, the unification of the country under the authority of the South will be the beginning of a new economic breakthrough for the united country, comparable to the Stalin five-year plans of the USSR, the economic take-off of post-war Germany and Japan, as well as the first "Korean miracle." The population of the North is experiencing a shortage of goods, and infrastructure, in general, must be created from scratch. So this is a battle for one of the last on the globe unoccupied markets.


Notes:


1. The trump naval ace of Seoul - the destroyers of the URO class "King Sejon the Great" - are real monsters in the number of weapons second only to the Russian nuclear cruisers of the 1144 "Orlan" project. In addition to 8 anti-ship cruise missiles SSM-700K Haeseong and 32 Hyunmoo-3 cruise missiles for ground attack, destroyers of this class have in their arsenal SM-2 Block IIIB / IV anti-aircraft missiles.

2. Japan did not officially participate in the Korean War for the reason that prior to 1952, its main territory was under American occupation. But individual volunteers from the Land of the Rising Sun, mainly of Korean origin, were noted in the fighting.

3. The 90% surface part of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation consists of 1980's combat ships (from strength - the beginning of 1990's) of construction. All these ships were very formidable, but again for the eighties, now they were not written off just because there is no replacement and there will not be.

4. For reference: the length of the Russian-North Korean border is only 39 km. The two countries are connected by a single railway bridge of Friendship. There are no other transitions.

5. The nearest Russian point to the possible combat zone is the railway station Hassan and the frontier post “Sandy”.
Author:
67 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must to register.

I have an account? Sign in

  1. Shick
    Shick 15 January 2016 06: 04
    +3
    North Korea needs the United States first. By escalating anti-American hysteria, the United States gains the right to deploy troops in this region under the pretext of ensuring security. Under the cries of atomic weapons, the Americans blocked the southern direction for China
    1. Megatron
      Megatron 15 January 2016 08: 47
      12
      How many times has all the "high-tech" and modernity of the army crashed and crashed on the realities of war.

      With blows from afar - you won’t win the war, it has long been proven. But in the ground forces, knee-deep in the mud, nothing better than the good old AK47 was invented.

      So in the place of the author, I would not be so categorical.
      1. Poppy
        Poppy 15 January 2016 09: 20
        0
        besides, the majority of the DPRK army is special forces - it is very inconvenient to fight with such an army
        1. Shick
          Shick 15 January 2016 09: 30
          +3
          spetsnaz spetsnaz, but when they fly from the sky across the infrastructure of spetsnaz will cover?
          1. Starshina wmf
            Starshina wmf 15 January 2016 11: 43
            +3
            And what is known about the tunnels that literally cut through the mountainous part of the DPRK. Here the Americans from the Vietnamese excelled in all respects and that. And at the expense of nuclear weapons from the northerners. I think all the same they have them. Although they are not powerful but there are.
          2. Lord of Wrath
            Lord of Wrath 15 January 2016 12: 53
            +2
            Quote: Shick
            but when they will fly from heaven over the entire infrastructure by special forces will cover?

            That's the secret that will not fly. You forget about nuclear weapons. In the case of the movement of a multiple air target, a stratospheric nuclear explosion follows and all the high-tech stuffing of both aircraft and missiles turns into trash.
      2. Shick
        Shick 15 January 2016 09: 27
        +4
        I bet the progress is on, high-tech allows you to save thousands of lives of fighters. Enough to think by the criteria of the Second World War, now one fighting spirit is not enough. By your logic, the troops, in principle, need not be developed, and so everything will come down to ak and dirt, so what?
        1. Stirbjorn
          Stirbjorn 15 January 2016 10: 34
          +6
          But the Hussites are successfully fighting high-tech Saudis and their mercenaries. hi
        2. Setrac
          Setrac 15 January 2016 12: 41
          +3
          Quote: Shick
          By your logic, the troops, in principle, need not be developed, and so everything will come down to ak and dirt, so what?

          In any case, the determination (or non-determination) of a soldier to endure hunger and cold (and other hardships and deprivations of military service) is crucial.
      3. Petrov
        Petrov 15 January 2016 12: 21
        0
        No, better AKMS.
    2. padded jacket
      padded jacket 15 January 2016 12: 35
      +5
      Quote: Shick
      North Korea needs the DPRK first

      The DPRK seems to be needed by everyone. And now he tested his bomb very in time just when the conflict between Iran and the SA began to "flare up". Perhaps he thus indicated that there is a BOMB, and remembering the great and long-standing friendship between the DPRK and Iran, she may accidentally turn out to be him.
      In general, of course, the range of missiles already possessed by the DPRK makes us think the United States and its satellites and the presence of nuclear weapons is even more and shows to other countries - if you have nuclear weapons you are guaranteed not to be occupied by the United States.
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 15 January 2016 12: 50
        +3
        Quote: article
        Russian main battle tank M-2002 (aka Songun-915), armed with a 125-mm cannon, a 14,5 mm machine gun and Bulsae-3 anti-tank missile systems. .

        In fact, the Bulsae-3 ATGM, as well as MANPADS, is installed on it only at parades; in life, it "moves" without them smile

        He is with "welded" MANPADS and without additional protection in frontsmile

        Quote: article
        Or (according to network sources) a certain number of Russian BTR-80A that were purchased in the Russian Federation two decades ago

        This is what the Koreans have made of our BTR-80A, which also "flickers" at parades.
        BTR with a wheel formula of 8x8 and 6x6 unfortunately the name is unknown in any case to me.
        The armament of these armored personnel carriers is a 2X14.5-mm KPVT and 7.62-mm machine guns.

        1. Gerhard
          Gerhard 16 January 2016 01: 14
          0
          Kimka’s parades resemble those of Saddam’s millionaires, which were rolled out in a week with a ponytail.
    3. Aleksandr72
      Aleksandr72 15 January 2016 14: 13
      +3
      The article is certainly interesting. But its essence boils down to the fact that war should not be expected on the Korean Peninsula in the foreseeable future. Because none of the key players determining the political climate in this part of the globe needs this war — these are China, Japan, Russia and, of course, the United States (where are there without mattresses!). At the same time, it is beneficial for the States to maintain tensions in the region - this is too much pressure on China and Russia and another reason to keep Japan and South Korea in the American reins. Therefore, the end-edge of the conflict on the 37th parallel can not be seen.
      I have the honor.
    4. Red_Hamer
      Red_Hamer 15 January 2016 16: 43
      +1
      Among other things, they have placed their missile defense system in Japan, "against the DPRK"))
  2. Shick
    Shick 15 January 2016 06: 05
    +1
    Yes, and it is hardly believed that Kim, who was studying in Switzerland, with the rest of the world elite, followed in the footsteps of their ancestors without the firm hand of Washington. It’s ridiculous. DPRK will be until the US needs it
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 15 January 2016 06: 34
      +4
      Quote: Shick
      By pumping anti-American hysteria, the United States gains the right to deploy troops in this region under the pretext of ensuring security

      At our side, to the thunderous applause of our "patriots" who are crazy about Kim.
      1. strannik1985
        strannik1985 15 January 2016 07: 57
        +3
        You might think Kim in this matter, something seriously decides. Two, relatively recent, attempts to negotiate with the United States ended for one with a hemp tie, and for the other with a dagger in the ass. Not too pleasant prospect, agree?
      2. andj61
        andj61 15 January 2016 08: 10
        +6
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: Shick
        By pumping anti-American hysteria, the United States gains the right to deploy troops in this region under the pretext of ensuring security

        At our side, to the thunderous applause of our "patriots" who are crazy about Kim.

        You might think that Americans are better than Kim for Russia's interests ... what
        But the Chinese are in vain from the account. If for Russia the North Korean regime, as the author notes, is “neither an ally nor a client,” for China it is both a client and an ally. At one time, a million "Chinese volunteers" supported by our aviation and ensured the existing status quo on the peninsula. It is unlikely that China will abandon North Korea now, especially given the aggravation of contradictions with the Americans in this region.
        1. Shick
          Shick 15 January 2016 09: 29
          -1
          China is the largest holder of the US public debt, it can only stand up against amers in words) and in general I won’t be surprised if the Chinese economic miracle is the brainchild of the Americans.
      3. Mikhail Krapivin
        Mikhail Krapivin 15 January 2016 16: 09
        0
        South Korea is one of the best friends of the United States. This is enough for our forum "patriots" to warmly sympathize with the North.
    2. padded jacket
      padded jacket 15 January 2016 13: 14
      0
      Quote: Shick
      Yes, and it is hardly believed that Kim, who was studying in Switzerland, with the rest of the world elite, followed in the footsteps of their ancestors without the firm hand of Washington.

      Well, not all the same they become traitors to their people, even if they studied in Switzerland smile
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Great-grandfather of Zeus
    Great-grandfather of Zeus 15 January 2016 06: 49
    +2
    If South Korea had not been occupied by the United States Army, and the authorities were more independent in their actions, then both Koreans would have reconciled long ago. But what can South Korea do now, essentially a colony country without a voice? Ps-why do they have photo monitor dellowski, and not a ski or samsung?
    1. Shick
      Shick 15 January 2016 09: 31
      0
      colony without a voice with the highest level of socio-economic development
    2. S-kerrigan
      S-kerrigan 15 January 2016 10: 04
      +1
      DELL is not the de facto open standard in this area among Western "offices". We are talking about both a military officer and a citizen (we do not take into account the glamorous IT offices. Rather, we are talking about harsh professional organizations).
    3. Lord of Wrath
      Lord of Wrath 15 January 2016 12: 57
      +3
      Quote: Great-grandfather of Zeus
      then both Koreans would have reconciled long ago

      You won’t believe how right you are. Have you seen in the news how students riot in South Korea? So these are the speeches for joining the North.
      The paradox is that Kimov is considered almost a god in both Koreas.
  5. Hammer
    Hammer 15 January 2016 06: 53
    +6
    in modern warfare, even the difference of one generation in some cases can be considered critical.

    I do not agree. On the contrary, in modern warfare, technical superiority decides little. There are Kalash monkeys fighting perfectly with the most modern and well-equipped Saudi army in the region. The role is played by ideological impregnation, with which the SC seems to be in full order.

    in the worst case scenario, the enemy will erase two or three South Korean cities from the face of the earth in a nuclear fire (which, incidentally, is very unlikely), the final victory will still be with the US-Korean forces. This confidence has its reasons.

    the destruction of 2-3 cities of the South Caucasus will mean the complete destruction of the South Korean state politically and economically. Not a single politician or leader in the South Caucasus will dare to do this, or can the Japanese only calculate the future of their careers from the author?

    (Korean Augmentation To the United States Army - KATUSA), which, in essence, is the American foreign legion in Korea. They are members of the Korean army who wear the American uniform and know English better, American charters, and technology.

    If this is true, then this is hypocrisy beyond measure. The military of your country serves another state in your own territory.
    1. Kibalchish
      15 January 2016 07: 02
      -2
      Quote: Hammer
      If this is true, then this is hypocrisy beyond measure. The military of your country serves another state in your own territory.


      Pure truth. Look at the form and compare it with the South Korean.
    2. Azitral
      Azitral 15 January 2016 10: 51
      -10 qualifying.
      If it comes to hot, then the Russian Federation with all determination will come out on the side of South Korea. And behind the scenes, I think it is speaking now. In the event of a war between Korea, we have one interest: so that their missiles with nuclear weapons do not take off, and the warheads themselves do not explode. They will help the RUC, at least, with information from satellites, or even duplicate missile defense. A concentration camp at the border is not needed and dangerous.
      1. Talgat
        Talgat 15 January 2016 18: 26
        +2
        Quote: Azitral
        The Russian Federation will decisively side with South Korea.


        This is absurd. It contradicts the geopolitical alignment. Both Russia and China are North Korea’s natural allies

        If this was possible in the 90 under the Eltsin of the Gusinsky Birch and other seven-bankers, now the leadership of the Russian Federation at least expresses Russia's interests in foreign policy. and not the State Department and South Korea
    3. Odysseus
      Odysseus 15 January 2016 13: 49
      0
      Quote: Hammer
      If this is true, then this is hypocrisy beyond measure. The military of your country serves another state in your own territory

      This is not hypocrisy, this is occupation. South Korea is a de facto occupied country.
  6. Bayonet
    Bayonet 15 January 2016 06: 58
    +5
    Surprisingly, the statement (in the article) - "The Republic of Korea is one of the few countries that may even be interested in escalation."
    Only the poor have nothing to lose in the war, and who in this confrontation is poor, in my opinion it’s clear to everyone.
    1. Kibalchish
      15 January 2016 07: 04
      +3
      Germany in both world wars had nothing to lose or was she a beggar?
      1. Shick
        Shick 15 January 2016 09: 33
        +1
        Germany had other interests
    2. Stirbjorn
      Stirbjorn 15 January 2016 10: 37
      +4
      Quote: Bayonet
      Only the poor have nothing to lose in the war, and who in this confrontation is poor, in my opinion it’s clear to everyone.
      However, since the age of 53, North Korea has not attacked anyone, in contrast to the symbol of democracy.
      1. Bayonet
        Bayonet 15 January 2016 12: 58
        0
        Quote: Stirbjorn
        However, from the age of 53, North Korea did not attack anyone

        Did the South attack anyone? The talk is about the Koreas, not about Germany or the "symbol of democracy."
  7. LÄRZ
    LÄRZ 15 January 2016 07: 03
    +4
    As two cats howl at each other, and nobody decides to snarl first with a paw. So all the same, at first they think, and only then do it.
    1. NIKNN
      NIKNN 15 January 2016 07: 33
      +7
      The truth is that any military conflict for both Koreas will be a collapse of their economies. request
  8. gla172
    gla172 15 January 2016 07: 07
    +4
    _________________---))).
  9. inkass_98
    inkass_98 15 January 2016 07: 17
    +7
    Kabardin is in its repertoire, as always. Complete peremptory and "confidence in the future", i.e. in the inevitability of war in the region. Attempts to start contacts made by both sides, family reunification programs (albeit in Kazakhstan), and other things are not taken into account. I agree with the great-grandfather of Zeus - without the constant intervention of the United States, both parts of Korea in one way or another would find an opportunity to reach an agreement, and even more so now, when the young heir to the northern throne is thoroughly clearing his entourage from his father's and grandfather's comrades-in-arms. He is far from, as much as this Kibalchish would not want. And not entirely fools are in power in South Korea, otherwise they would have started a war long ago, there were plenty of reasons. But there is no confidence in victory, and precisely because the North has a huge potential, despite the backwardness of industry and weapons, losses on both sides will be simply enormous. Destroy both countries, so that the remnants of the population start all over again on the rubble? Very hard to believe.
    1. Kibalchish
      15 January 2016 07: 27
      +1
      No one will forever maintain separation. This is an obvious fact. Just for the decisive blow, the South Caucasus is not ready yet, but the SK has no chances right now.
      1. inkass_98
        inkass_98 15 January 2016 08: 05
        +3
        She didn't have a chance without the support of China and the USSR / Russia. I'm talking about something else - about unacceptable losses on both sides in the event of a conflict, and this is exactly the case. And yet - with all due respect to the army and navy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the DPRK has the largest submarine fleet in the world. Even if this is trash for the most part, it can bring a lot of troubles, especially in the case of implementation of plans to equip it with ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Therefore, I will repeat once again: "everything is not so simple" (C).
    2. Azitral
      Azitral 15 January 2016 10: 55
      -2
      "both parts of Korea in one way or another would find an opportunity to come to an agreement, and even more so now, when the young heir to the northern throne is conducting a thorough cleaning of his entourage from his father and grandfather's comrades-in-arms."
      The USSR collapsed mainly because the elites of the Union republics wanted to have all the powers and not to share with Moscow. They do not share personal power, they do not give it all the more. So do not agree.
      1. strannik1985
        strannik1985 15 January 2016 11: 00
        +2
        It’s ridiculous. Under the current Law on National Security and the Administration of the Northern Territories, what kind of association can we talk about (not to mention the attitude to North Koreans as second-class people)?
  10. CONTROL
    CONTROL 15 January 2016 07: 47
    +2
    The DPRK is capable of mobilizing more than 2 million army in a very short time! "crushed with meat" ...
    As for the "American contingent" - American soldiers will not fight in such a war! hide (also applies to "Koreans-Americans"); face to face - and it is precisely such a war that is planned (and not "shelling along a ballistic trajectory because of that mountain ridge" and bombing from the air - from a height of ... Hollywood they can!
    Motivation again: the "damned imperialists" took away part of the country from Korea -
    and now it's the PRC ...
    The "economic miracle" of South Korea is a miracle akin to the Chinese one with a big admixture of Uncle Sam's speculative tricks: cheap labor (due to natural conditions and the associated low standard of living, and low requirements for this very standard of living - due to national and historical traditions and mentality - Buddhism, well ...). This miracle can collapse at once (which, by the way, is very much afraid of China, which perfectly knows and understands the origins and cost of the "Chinese economic miracle" ...)
    - investors do not like war - Are these "investors" represented by the US military-industrial complex? Yes, for them, in the current sluggish - crisis heat, war and military orders will be heavenly manna!
    As for the modern - well, or relatively modern ... - armaments and equipment: why not Russia and sell the DPRK what is now changing in our armed forces to the modern? ...
    And there are enough other arguments "against" stated in the article!
    So the prospects for war ... must be skeptical: South Korea seems to have a little chance ...
    1. andj61
      andj61 15 January 2016 08: 15
      +5
      Quote: CONTROL
      So the prospects for war ... should be skeptical: it seems that South Korea has little chance ...

      good This is so - the North Koreans are preparing to fight and die for victory - South Korea and the Americans do not have such readiness ...
    2. Hlyneope
      Hlyneope 15 January 2016 09: 05
      -3
      As for the "American contingent" - American soldiers will not fight in such a war! hide (also applies to "Koreans-Americans"); face to face - and it is precisely such a war that is planned (and not "shelling along a ballistic trajectory because of that mountain ridge" and bombing from the air - from a height of ... Hollywood they can!

      Especially when you consider that in the Korean War it was the United States that deployed the second largest military contingent from the south (the first, respectively, near the Republic of Kazakhstan), and that they, in fact, saved the Republic of Kazakhstan and allowed to push the DPRK army right up to its northernmost border, along the way having taken control of Pyongyang. Then the hordes of Chinese soldiers intervened with the PCA at the ready, but that's another story. Such hatred moods never led to anything good. In addition, in fairness, the same can be said about us, we have contract soldiers from the army (!) Deserting, because they don’t want to go to Donbass (and this was not sent by anyone, they just decided to play it safe), But this is just an ordinary small-town local conflict, but what will happen in the event of a big war?
      So the prospects for war ... should be skeptical: it seems that South Korea has little chance ...

      Even if the DPRK wins, it will get itself South in ruins. Such a war will not be quick, it is not 1950, RK, after that shameful flight right up to Busan, it constantly expects a war, therefore, there will be no effect of surprise (the main factor because of which the DPRK has advanced so far). The war will come out bloody and protracted. In addition, in the South, Juche’s ideas are not needed by anyone for nothing, so the population will hastily leave the country, and the point here is not so much in Juche as in the South that they are accustomed to a relatively high standard of living, and the DPRK, having got the south in ruins, such conditions will not and will not be able to. Also, in the last war, none of the parties to the conflict was humanistic, and there are no guarantees that in this one suddenly everyone remembers the norms of warfare, international humanitarian law and other absurdities, which will make people pack their bags even faster. And to top it off, in relation to a depleted DPRK with ruins in half the country, they will begin a full-fledged economic blockade, which will finally undermine any hopes for prosperity, or at least a quick recovery. So victory may not lead to any prosperity for the DPRK. In addition, the military power of the DPRK is based on the size of the army, and the military power of the Republic of Kazakhstan on its quality, well, plus the United States. The numerical superiority in the last DPRK war somehow did not help much.
      1. vlad-58
        vlad-58 15 January 2016 21: 45
        +1
        Quote: Hlyneope
        Especially when you consider that in the Korean War it was the United States that deployed the second largest military contingent from the south (the first, respectively, near the Republic of Kazakhstan), and that they, in fact, saved the Republic of Kazakhstan and allowed to push the DPRK army right up to its northernmost borders, simultaneously taking control of Pyongyang.

        It would be worth reading the "memoirs" of the "heroes" - the Americans after the Korean War! but of course not "artistically reworked", like "Heart of the Eagle", but real ones - as they were beaten by Korean peasants, practically unarmed, and how these "Wyatt Earps" fleeing away, reached Pyongyang, thanks to the newest then - but now taken as the main military doctrine technical ability to "fight over the mountains and over the sea", with the help of aircraft carriers and long-range artillery. Now this trick will not work - North Koreans are eager to remember the United States of their "victorious war"!
        Even if the DPRK wins, it will get itself South in ruins. And the North Koreans will not get used to it - the Asian mentality, however! it cannot be said about the South Koreans (the northerners who fled to South Korea are accepted there, of course, but they assimilate with difficulty! These are two different peoples; the difference is greater than between Ukraine and Russia! ... ... The war will come out bloody and protracted. In addition, in the South, Juche’s ideas do not need anyone for nothing, so the population will hastily leave the country,... where will it "leave" it? To Europe? wave of migrants?... and the point here is not so much in Juche as in the fact that in the South they are accustomed to a relatively high standard of living, and the DPRK, having received the south in ruins, will not and will not be able to create such conditions. Asians more than once or twice have shown amazing vitality and hard work - a national character trait (successfully, by the way, eradicated in South Korea - and in Japan, by the way - by the "American way of life").Also, in the last war, none of the parties to the conflict was humanistic, and there are no guarantees that in this one suddenly everyone remembers the norms of warfare, international humanitarian law and other absurdities, which will make people pack their bags even faster. And in the modern, through and through hypocritical world, we should forget about "humpravo" (before our eyes - the fascist regime in Ukraine, everyone knows and understands everything, and so good? ... And to top it off, in relation to a depleted DPRK with ruins in half the country, they will begin a full-fledged economic blockade, which will finally undermine any hopes for prosperity, or at least a quick recovery. Whose blockade? Europe, EU, USA?
        It seems that the BRICS blockade will not declare ...... North Korea’s military power is based on the size of the army, and Kazakhstan’s military power is based on its quality, plus the United States. The numerical superiority in the last DPRK war somehow did not help much. But in the last war it was not there! not to mention technology and weapons ...
        1. Hlyneope
          Hlyneope 16 January 2016 13: 47
          -1
          It would be worth reading the "memoirs" of the "heroes" - the Americans after the Korean War! but of course not "artistically reworked", like "Heart of the Eagle", but real ones - as they were beaten by Korean peasants, practically unarmed, and how these "Wyatt Earps" fleeing away, reached Pyongyang, thanks to the newest then - but now taken as the main military doctrine technical ability to "fight over the mountains and over the sea", with the help of aircraft carriers and long-range artillery. Now this trick will not work - North Koreans are eager to remember the United States of their "victorious war"!

          So what? The Americans dropped their weapons and fled to their homeland? Surrendered? Surrendered? Began to beg for mercy? They also suffered considerable losses. Ah, and "to fight over the mountains and over the sea" is an effective strategy for waging war, which allows you to save material and human resources. The DPRK does not have many modern air defense and missile defense systems.
          Whose blockade? Europe, EU, USA?
          It seems that the BRICS will not declare a blockade.

          Compare. Of the entire BRICS, more or less significant players are Russia and China, and of this two, the most significant are China and it is against the United States and its allies (half the world). DPRK will be able to live normally only with Chinese help, because they themselves will not quickly restore industry, and if they do, then what? Will live on domestic consumption of industrial products? And this is not taking into account the richest population and in the post-war crisis and devastation? And where should they export? To Russia? I do not think that they will be able to make the same high-quality electronics and cars. To China? Maybe, but this is only one China, and there is its own. And in all other countries the path is closed to them (except for BRICS, and that is not a fact). And even if they open this path to them, then who will need them there? They will not be able to occupy the same place on the market as South Korean companies, and at a level of development and life equal to South Korean companies, if they enter, then soon. Moreover, in such a situation, the DPRK will quickly fall under the influence of the PRC, (since if Russia will provide assistance to Korea, it will not be significant, we ourselves do not have money) and this is undesirable for us.
          And the North Koreans will not get used to it - the Asian mentality, however! which cannot be said of the South Koreans (the northerners who fled to South Korea are accepted there, of course, but they assimilate with difficulty! These are two different peoples; the difference is greater than between Ukraine and Russia!

          Moreover, there can be no talk of any kind of association. Yes, and this association is not beneficial to anyone, except, probably, the DPRK (and even in a very long term), but who cares?
  11. agfa
    agfa 15 January 2016 07: 58
    -2
    Everything is fine, but a referendum on joining the Russian Federation will resolve all issues. Once again, it will become "a little worse" for us, as with the annexation of Crimea, but Belarus will be next in line and the US State Department will have to raise the next question, leaving the choked South Koreans with the expression "An auditor has come to us."
    1. inkass_98
      inkass_98 15 January 2016 08: 06
      +2
      Quote: agfa
      referendum on joining the Russian Federation will solve all issues

      This is utopia, do not be naive.
    2. Siberian 1975
      Siberian 1975 15 January 2016 13: 09
      +1
      Do not smoke any rubbish, it affects you badly)))).
  12. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 15 January 2016 08: 07
    +6
    The fact that the army of South Korea is equipped much better, no doubt. But the DPRK army’s motivation and morale is much higher and the leadership of South Korea understands this, as well as the fact that the United States will not fight for them in the event of a real war. But periodically fomenting this conflict I will solve my problems, which is completely in the spirit of the Americans.
    1. Pirogov
      Pirogov 15 January 2016 21: 12
      0
      That's right, the United States can only fuel!
    2. Gerhard
      Gerhard 16 January 2016 19: 49
      0
      Quote: rotmistr60
      The United States in the event of a real war will not fight for them.
      will not? there are US bases, an attack on Yu.K. automatically equates to a declaration of war on the entire NATO bloc. and for America it is enough to spend a couple of hundred sorties as strategists to "equalize the chances" and clean up cannon fodder.
  13. agfa
    agfa 15 January 2016 08: 10
    0
    Quote: inkass_98
    This is utopia, do not be naive.


    Dear it is ALREADY HISTORY and it is happening today, given the STATE MEDIA in North Korea, the preparation of the BRAIN will take 1 year and now you do not be so naive
  14. Dam
    Dam 15 January 2016 08: 48
    +3
    Let's remember how the trained pand.osami army behave in wars. Run in front of their weapons. So with the southerners will happen. And mattresses will not climb on nuclear weapons, while there will be at least a small chance of suffering losses
  15. V
    V 15 January 2016 08: 59
    +6
    North Korea needs the very regime that is currently operating there. This regime will not become, and the DPRK will not. She stupidly attached to South Korea. Consequently, the colony of Americans will become wider, it will still be the territory where they stick the base near the borders of the Russian Federation. Good luck to the DPRK, there is something to respect them, they do not bend under this fucking corrupt world.
  16. rennim
    rennim 15 January 2016 09: 26
    +2
    At one time, the United States imposed restrictions on Japan. This led to the well-known events of the Second World War. Only then there was no nuclear weapon. It appeared only at the end. With North Korea, the world community itself puts itself on the brink of a full-scale war (and with the use of nuclear weapons) leading to massive casualties and economic losses. This is totally unacceptable and stupid.
  17. mishastich
    mishastich 15 January 2016 09: 42
    +7
    Here everyone focused on the fact that the DPRK survived thanks to the USSR and the PRC, forgetting that the Southerners were alive only thanks to American bayonets. That in the 50s, that in the 70s, when South Korea was shaken by political riots.

    DPRK is really worth carrying out military and economic reform, Kim may be trying, but does not know how, and no one can be trusted.
  18. Vincent
    Vincent 15 January 2016 09: 53
    +4
    "In service there are: about 3500 medium and main battle tanks and over 560 light tanks, more than 2500 armored personnel carriers, more than 10400 artillery pieces (including 3500 towed and 4400 self-propelled ones), over 7500 mortars, more than 2500 MLRS, about 2000 ATGM installations, 34 installations of tactical missiles, 30 installations of operational-tactical missiles, 11000 anti-aircraft gun mounts (of which about 3000 in stationary positions), about 10000 MANPADS [14]. "
    And these are just the ground forces of North Korea. Given the mobilization reserve of 10 million people, it simply will not be possible to defeat South Korea, even with the support of overseas partners. I don’t think that war will be like in the Middle East, where every little one tries to get the essence of a dagger in the neighbor’s back. Then they will begin to fight with all their might.
    1. Setrac
      Setrac 15 January 2016 13: 00
      -1
      Quote: Vincent
      mobilization reserve of 10 million people

      You are talking about some other state.
  19. Zomanus
    Zomanus 15 January 2016 10: 40
    +1
    Yes, war is not interesting to us here.
    Although, on the other hand, more new weapons will be transferred here then.
    It is rightly said about the Pacific Fleet, "the museum is afloat" in fact.
  20. Algetxnumx
    Algetxnumx 15 January 2016 10: 50
    -3
    A typical review of a cabinet-divan srAtega-analyst, many many many many bugs, and everything seems to be right, but in real life it’s full of bullshit, because it will be essentially a civil war with the participation of third-party interested parties (sorry for the tautology), and in the civil war, by and large there are no winners, and with full-scale hostilities on the Korean peninsula, it will be possible to put a big, bold cross, because guys on both sides are stubborn, they will fight to the last.
    1. Siberian 1975
      Siberian 1975 15 January 2016 13: 16
      +1
      The typical answer of the armchair-strategist-analyst. I can’t understand why here some participants call others sofas, etc. And you yourself from the General Staff have probably come down to share with us, miserable, your great thoughts and knowledge? In my opinion, here people share their thoughts that have every right you don’t like. Express yours, BUT without going to the person.
      1. Mikhail Krapivin
        Mikhail Krapivin 15 January 2016 16: 19
        +1
        I completely agree. The harsh and brutal military, who are "in the ranks" on forums, have no time to hang out, therefore almost everyone who communicates here can be offended by calling them "couch troops." Although I personally prefer a chair :)
        1. vlad-58
          vlad-58 15 January 2016 21: 53
          0
          Quote: Mikhail Krapivin
          Although I personally prefer a chair :)

          A chair, only a chair! ... after a good table ...
    2. vlad-58
      vlad-58 15 January 2016 21: 51
      0
      Quote: Alget87
      guys on both sides are stubborn, they will fight to the last.

      ... in the south - no longer! ...
  21. nekot
    nekot 15 January 2016 11: 18
    +1
    Amusing conclusions of the author, who, apparently, perceives reality exclusively through the news produced by American "newsmakers"))) According to Kabardin, it would sooner have begun and South Korea would have instantly annexed the territories of its "evil" northern neighbor. Comments on the inadequacy of the North Koreans from that operas - rather, we must respect them for the fact that they survived when we abandoned all our allies in the 90s, but then China helped them. At the same time, they did not start wars and did not even develop a nuclear program until the Americans guaranteed them non-aggression (see, for example, Wikipedia. So, rather, the South Korean and American media are inadequate, daily lying about "the crimes of the bloody gebny (North Korean regime")) And, in contrast from Kabardin, it is unlikely that the South Korean authorities believe that 2-3 destroyed large cities and several million people are nonsense, in no way preventing an attack on the "new market", so his hopes are unlikely to come true in the near future)))
  22. Robert Nevsky
    Robert Nevsky 15 January 2016 11: 52
    +2
    Guys, in my opinion there will be no war in Korea! There will be a confrontation, but war is not.
    Times are not the same, and people are not the same.
    1. mishastich
      mishastich 15 January 2016 13: 26
      0
      There will be a war if it will be beneficial to someone. The author of this article believes that the war will be beneficial to the Republic of Korea. Many in the West believe that the war is beneficial to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, it will accelerate the political processes taking place in the state.

      I am for resolving the issue peacefully, through the unification of Korea. But for this you need to destroy the state. institutes both in the North and in the South. Nobody will do it on their own (although Gorbach did), so that the economic and social pressure remains until the victory of one of the interested parties (not necessarily Korea).
    2. vlad-58
      vlad-58 15 January 2016 21: 55
      0
      Quote: Robert Nevsky
      Guys, in my opinion there will be no war in Korea! There will be a confrontation, but war is not.
      Times are not the same, and people are not the same.

      ... and ISIS is not there! and Daesh, too ... Bah, yes this is one and the same thing! ...
  23. batonow44
    batonow44 15 January 2016 13: 23
    +1
    ... Such an interesting theory has been wandering around the Internet for years. I came across her after reading a recent speech by Julietto Chiesa:

    Where did America get the money to sponsor revolutions in different countries?

    Ms. Victoria Nuland, US Assistant Secretary of State John Kerry, said in mid-December: “We invested $ 15 billion to give the Ukrainian people the future they deserve.” And what did they do with these 15 billion? They bought the secret service camps of Ukraine, they paid for the creation of training camps that were previously in Ukraine, and then were moved to Poland and Latvia.

    My last discovery: where does all this money come from? I knew that the United States produces $ 85 billion every month from nothing. They are created by computers. They pay their debt with money that they produce artificially from scratch. 100 dollar bills are made ... in North Korea! There are three places where the United States produces its money: two in America, and the third in North Korea, not far from Pyongyang ...

    http://masterok.livejournal.com/1811562.html
    1. vlad-58
      vlad-58 15 January 2016 21: 57
      0
      Quote: batonow44
      There are three places where the United States produces its money: two in America, and the third in North Korea, not far from Pyongyang ...

      http://masterok.livejournal.com/1811562.html

      ... and stand dead with braids ... and silence! ...
      Bullshit !!!
  24. Odysseus
    Odysseus 15 January 2016 13: 44
    +5
    One hundred million first article by a "liberal" analyst about a bad DPRK and the mighty South Caucasus is about to crush the "backward" DPRK with one mighty blow. Only year after year, and the defeat somehow does not happen. Moreover, the "high-tech" South Caucasus is more and more often runs to complain to their American masters about the "aggressiveness and provocations of the DPRK."
    The funniest thing in the article is, of course, an analysis of the interests of the main parties to the conflict, which the United States is not included in. Apparently, Kabardin, like his Ukrainian colleagues, is afraid to mention the name of the host in vain.
    The "expert's conclusions" that the war is beneficial to South Korea and that the loss of 2-3 large cities is nonsense, is a matter of everyday life. Especially if you look at the map (which the "expert" could not do) and make sure that one of these cities is Seoul.
  25. Cobra77
    Cobra77 15 January 2016 14: 30
    +5
    Article profanity and delirium. There doesn’t even smell of war there. The usual throwing of known substances and nothing more.
    Without the help of the States, Southerners will not be able to win the war against the North, from the word at all. Although the equipment of the army of the North leaves much to be desired, it is quite numerous, sufficiently motivated and armed with non-flintlock guns and bows. You cannot win a war with air strikes. And in a ground operation, the Southerners will get bogged down. Yes, the ratio of losses will not be in favor of the North. But it doesn't matter. This is not a sports boxing, you cannot win on points. State intervention is unlikely. China does not need a victorious war from their main rival on the globe at hand. And I think they will bring this idea to understanding in the State Department amers. Amers do not need a direct conflict with China. They are certainly not as harsh as Russia, but they already feel the strength. But that doesn't matter. The Northerners have about 10-15 nuclear warheads, whatever the sofa analysts say, this, by the way, speaks of a rather high technical, scientific and production level of "backward" North Korea. And this excludes war on their territory. For if they can (and why not?) Apply them to the Southerners, then the losses will be unacceptable. And the States can get it. They may not have missiles to reach the cowboys, but you can take them on a civilian ship to Chihari in advance. Doubt the State is smiling at a nuclear explosion anywhere in Los Angeles ....
  26. domiemon
    domiemon 15 January 2016 15: 39
    -1
    For all this analytics, the author omits one crucial question: neither side is needed for war on the Korean Peninsula. Kim, in order not to fly off her throne, but to the southerners - because after the inevitable defeat of the northerners they will need to be kept. For the quarter century that has passed since the merger, Germany barely absorbed the GDR. Putin, the president of 147 million Russia, was afraid to take the 7 millionth Donbass (about the 20 millionth Novorossiya it was not even discussed), and here the 50 millionth South Korea would have to drag 25 million northerners. Therefore, there just war is least likely.
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 15 January 2016 15: 55
      +3
      Quote: domiemon
      and here the 50 millionth South Korea will have to drag 25 million northerners.

      In cases of war between them, given the presence of nuclear weapons in the DPRK, it is very highly doubtful that 50 million people will remain in South Korea after the end of the conflict.
    2. Mikhail Krapivin
      Mikhail Krapivin 15 January 2016 15: 59
      +1
      And I would argue about the obvious victory of the South. If you cut off help and quickly get to Seoul, it’s not even a fact. Zealots are serious guys. And the South relaxed from a good life.
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 15 January 2016 16: 12
        +5
        Quote: Mikhail Krapivin
        Zealots are serious guys. And the South relaxed from a good life.

        Do not forget that South Korea has from 10 to 20 nuclear reactors on its territory and all of them are within the reach of Kim Jong-un's missiles, so if there is a "slaughter", it will be "terrible".

        Military cooperation between Russia and North Korea will expand
        Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu met with DPRK Minister of People’s Armed Forces Hyon Yong-chol, who arrived in Russia at the 4th Moscow International Security Conference. It is reported by Army Recognition.
        The head of the Russian military department said that Russia's position on cooperation between the two countries will not change - cooperation will only expand.
        “Both countries have big plans for expanding bilateral relations in various fields. I would like to emphasize that Russia's principled position on strengthening cooperation with the DPRK in the spirit of the agreements reached at the highest level will remain unchanged, ”said Sergei Shoigu.
        The Minister of Defense also noted that the Russian side was satisfied with Russian-North Korean contacts in 2014. “I am confident that your visit to Russia will contribute to the further development of friendly Russian-North Korean relations and the strengthening of peace and security in Asia,” Army General Sergei Shoigu emphasized.
      2. Pirogov
        Pirogov 15 January 2016 21: 29
        0
        Mikhail Krapivin (2) RU Today, 15:59 ↑

        And I would argue about the obvious victory of the South. If you cut off help and quickly get to Seoul, it’s not even a fact. Zealots are serious guys. And the South relaxed from a good life ............................................ ...............................
        ................. What good life are you talking about? Maybe the one who gets the most heart attacks and strokes at work is South Koreans, or maybe they work 12 hours without holidays, but I’ve seen such a life in a coffin. Or do you think that periodic meetings of southern students are just crazy about fat, or maybe from understanding what awaits them in the future? !!! And awaiting their hard labor, although decently paid, but still ,,,. Hard labor .....
    3. vlad-58
      vlad-58 15 January 2016 22: 04
      0
      Quote: domiemon
      For the quarter century that has passed since the merger, Germany barely absorbed the GDR.

      ... exactly the opposite: the FRG very satisfyingly "raped" the GDR, especially the military-industrial complex enterprises that worked for the Warsaw Pact! and still "have" - ​​the backlog - it was great! was enough for a quarter of a century ...
  27. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 15 January 2016 15: 56
    +3
    Oh, and the Korean’s face in the center of the picture :) I understand that I’m acting stupid and not serious, but I could not resist.
    1. Talgat
      Talgat 15 January 2016 18: 28
      +1
      well yeah stupid
  28. Cobra77
    Cobra77 15 January 2016 17: 48
    +2
    Quote: domiemon
    Kim, so as not to fly off his throne


    Why would he fly then? If the war goes down in a draw, only he will gain the benefits, as a defender of sovereignty and commander in chief.

    Quote: domiemon
    southerners - because after the inevitable defeat of the northerners


    Yes, you are a storyteller, like the author of the article. There will not be and cannot be there victory for Southerners. Without the participation of amers, the South has almost no chance of winning it, they will tear. However, like the North. The South can only have a chance if the war is quick, a couple of weeks. If it lasts longer, willpower, resilience, both the army and the population, will come out in the first place. And just by bombing from the air you will not be able to break through the layered entrenched defense that the North has organized for many years. Do not consider the northerners idiots. Well, no one canceled nuclear weapons. The south can cock up as much as you like, but they understand that if a couple of nuclear charges fall on Seoul, then it will not be abruptly before the war. Especially to the population. And there are several more charges than the northerners. North Korea is now untouchable. Nearly. As soon as they bring to mind their missile program, they will become completely untouchable.

    Quote: domiemon
    Putin, president of 147 million Russia, was afraid to take the 7 millionth Donbass (about the 20 millionth Novorossiya, there wasn’t even a word)


    Well, this is generally a fairy tale Poroshenko. There was no task of joining either Donbass or New Russia. And why the project of Novorossia did not start, this is a topic for a separate discussion, but its content here has nothing to do with the word at all.
    1. staer-62
      staer-62 15 January 2016 23: 17
      0
      You need to be very confident to feed people who hate you. Ukraine hates us is a fact. Donbas showed his will to win, but not immediately. Donbas showed that people do not care. These are miners and hard workers who did not stand up as one when they were already killing them. Thousands of men have stayed with us and are still sitting. The war is in the background on a nearby street Russians are fighting for the freedom of Donbas. And the inhabitants. men are sitting in Russia and watching when they are already free at home. Therefore, we cannot hand over or take this matter to the residents themselves. And we are helping.
  29. Razvedka_Boem
    Razvedka_Boem 15 January 2016 18: 50
    +1
    Blah blah blah. Everything rests on the prudence of several people. And that’s all. Everything else is speculation. What will be, how will be .. Those who are ready to go to the end win. The more well-fed life .. the less you want to lose it.
  30. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 15 January 2016 19: 22
    -1
    The DPRK is poorly armed. He has a huge army with outdated weapons. But it has nuclear weapons, and a lot of old weapons. South Korea has a small army but modern weapons. South Korea has "Patriots" that will shoot down missiles with nuclear weapons. The odds are equal.
    1. Pirogov
      Pirogov 15 January 2016 21: 49
      0
      Does South Korea have a small army? Well, you give, half a million is your small?
  31. nekromonger
    nekromonger 15 January 2016 21: 52
    +1
    the article is nothing, but what if blah blah blah and be-be-be-be
  32. Klos
    Klos 15 January 2016 22: 39
    0
    If a war starts, then, first of all, the Koreans themselves will lose. No matter where they live, in the north or south. Fratricide will lead to rivers of blood
  33. staer-62
    staer-62 15 January 2016 22: 55
    0
    I have not read everything. I believe that the world except us and China is indebted to both of Korea for the killing of millions of people in this country. And everything that happens in the northern part is a consequence of these crimes. I believe that Korea has the right to nuclear weapons to protect its people because it suffered the most severe losses among its population and the world has not yet been responsible for the massacres. I believe that the world should compensate materially and recognize the genocide and the massacres in Korea. And only then advise how to live.
  34. tehnokrat
    tehnokrat 15 January 2016 23: 22
    0
    Quote: anodonta
    Kabardin ... wishful thinking.

    Quote: nekot
    The author’s conclusions are funny,

    Quote: cobra77
    Article profanity and delirium. There doesn’t even smell of war there.


    I agree with these remarks so much that there’s nothing to add! Let's follow the logic:
    “... again sharply raised the question of a possible war on the peninsula”
    "... the situation ... of the parties to the conflict resembles ... a portrait of athletes before the start ..."
    "... if a big war begins tomorrow, then Seoul is ready for it ..."

    Maybe the truth is a matter of war? But no, thank God:
    “For Japan, conflict is desirable and undesirable at the same time ...”But
    "Tokyo itself is not eager to intervene ... Tokyo will try not to get involved in the conflict - this is a minimum of two years."
    “China is another country categorically not interested in a major war on the peninsula”
    “Another country that is not profitable neither by exacerbation, nor, especially, war on its very borders, is Russia ... and the threat should not be exaggerated ...”


    And now, attention, from all this the conclusion:
    “... The fact that war is inevitable is an obvious fact”

    Here are those times !!!

    The author, however, is prudent:
    “... it is in 2016 that one must be skeptical about the prospects of war”
    “... its probability increases ... we must understand the period in the next 3-5 years, a maximum of 10”
    “... these threats may come later, years later ...”

    In general, either the donkey will die, or the padishas! ..

    “... To start a war, even with a great desire, it is extremely difficult. .. "
    Yes, “war is (expressive pause) war!” (“The same Munchausen”)

    I’ll tell you a secret: DPRK is needed at least to write such articles! ..
    Minusses!


    Quote: domiemon
    For all this analytics, the author omits one crucial question: neither side is needed for war on the Korean Peninsula.

    Alaverdi! Briefly and clearly!
  35. Comrade Glebov
    Comrade Glebov 16 January 2016 04: 11
    +1
    I like it:
    "Not much is known about the DPRK army ... The armament of this army comes, for the most part, from the 1950s-1970s, despite the fact that in modern warfare, even the difference of one generation in some cases can be considered critical."
    It turns out that the author knows, if not a lot, then everything wassat ... During my stay in Pyongyang a couple of years ago, I noticed that the guide forbade photographing some buildings that look pretty decent and a column of vehicles covered with a tarpaulin and soldiers in bulletproof vests, which are traditionally absent at parades, passed through the city. It was impossible to see her, and it seems to me that, just like those same bulletproof vests, they don't advertise her very much. So we can’t really know anything about the DPRK’s armaments, maybe it’s from the 50s, or maybe quite from the 2010s. Even if we assume that the conflict will nevertheless come out of the "cold" stage, then the initiator will not be Korea, as the author writes, but rather the United States. Since the ROK realizes that with little bloodshed with the enemy who has been preparing to fight against them for 50 years, the war will not work, even with the support of the Yankees. The economy will roll back decades and the country will become even more dependent on the United States. Not a very pleasant prospect for a state that is in the stage of steady economic growth, albeit with the status of a colony. The DPRK also does not want to fight, there are healthy people in the leadership, everyone understands perfectly well that after such a war the country will not rise, even if it wins. They are building up armaments, especially weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles, and they are threateningly shaking all this precisely in order to cool the ardor of the Yankees with the prospect of a possible retaliatory, and even more, a preventive nuclear strike and thereby avoid war. On the other hand, the conflict for Japan, if it takes place between the DPRK and the ROK / USA, is, on the contrary, extremely beneficial, because the main strikes will fall on objects in the ROK. They themselves can evade the conflict for various reasons, and then reap the fruits of the economic destruction of Kazakhstan, which is a competitor for Japan in many markets.
    R.s .: These are my guesses and I do not pretend to the truth in the highest instance.
  36. From Samara
    From Samara 16 January 2016 05: 12
    0
    Everything is described too superficially ...

    It is not yet known how the South Korean army will actually behave ... Usually in such countries the population has problems with moral and volitional qualities ...

    Well, despite the rich income in the land parts of South Korea, there is still a lot of frank trash!
  37. Ozhogin Dmitry
    Ozhogin Dmitry 18 January 2016 00: 50
    0
    DPRK soldiers again, as in the last war, will have to dig underground tunnel systems in order to escape from enemy air attacks.
    For reference: the territory of the DPRK has long been completely dug up and its tunnels can accommodate the entire population and equipment.