Military Review

Short economic literacy to understand the global crisis

88
Short economic literacy to understand the global crisis



The weekend somehow always set me up in a less formal way. To write not in the dry language of analysts, but in a more lively, sometimes even ironic. And today such a mood.

I will try to explain to you on your fingers some seemingly simple, but for some reason, not all realized things about the economy - those that are needed right now to understand the essence of the global crisis that is happening now. And I will try immediately with practical examples.

Let's start with the fact that today there are actually two different economies: one is the “economy” of stock markets, and the second is the “physical” economy, which measures the volume of goods produced and consumed.

And these two economies today are almost completely unrelated - often the growth in the value of shares of companies goes even though they show losses. About Facebook, which is “more expensive” than Gazprom, I’ll generally keep silent.

1. Causes of blistering. As a result of many years of inflating the value of Western (primarily American) companies, their market value is several times higher than the nominal one. Most of them cannot show a normal profit, therefore it focuses on “capitalization growth”.

And this leads to the fact that the profit from the dividends of such companies turns out to be so scanty that the only reason to buy such shares is for the purpose of their speculative sale. That (together with margin debt, the use of borrowed funds at interest for trading stocks) forces the overwhelming majority of market participants to raise, further contributing to the expansion of bubbles.

In turn, borrowed funds are issued to players on the security of the value of the shares and with the condition that when the price falls, the shares must be automatically sold to pay off the debt (this is one of the margin call options). This causes an almost mandatory collapse of the stock exchange after the end of each rally on the rise.

2. Supply and demand. When they draw graphs of supply and demand, their dependence on price, they usually forget to mention that there are such things as “saturated demand” and “supply limit”.

Saturated demand is when consumers have bought the right amount of goods for them, fully satisfying the natural demand. And further price reduction does not lead to an increase in sales.

No, you can, of course, buy cheap bread to feed them pigs, but this is no longer a rule of the economy, but a deviation.

The limit of supply is, on the contrary, when more goods simply do not exist in nature. And no matter how much you raise the price on it, and the offer will not grow.

Why don't liberal economists like to mention these two phenomena? Because they prove that the “market rules” are applicable only in rather artificial conditions and narrow frameworks beyond which market methods do not work.

Illustrative examples of gold and oil. How much the price of gold is growing, and the offer is limited. Some of the holders may decide to sell, but these are situational fluctuations, and the total market is limited.

With oil, on the contrary: the Saudis have increased production, reduced the price - but consumption is not growing. So all warehouses and storages are clogged. The Chinese have increased their strategic reserves, while the price is low, a number of other countries and corporations have also bought stocks, but demand is further saturated, consumption will not increase. Therefore, there is no sense to reduce the price of oil further, and all price fluctuations today are not of a market, but of a purely political nature.

3. The value of freight.
You can inflate stock markets as much as you like (well, almost, hehe), but there is a real indicator of economic activity - this is the volume of cargo transported in the country. Transporting raw materials, transporting semi-finished products, transporting finished goods. Therefore, if the production falls, if the demand of the population falls, it is always immediately displayed on the freight traffic.

When in the spring of 2014, the maydanutye shouted “Now we live!”, And I looked at the falling rates of freight traffic, it was immediately clear that there would be a significant drop in GDP. Shipping in some directions then fell on 50-70%, which thickly hinted at the unfolding crisis. Yes, some of them are transit, but they are easy to isolate in the big picture, because transit usually goes via the TIR protocol (or similar). And the fall in domestic and export-import freight traffic meant a deep recession in the economy.

In the US, the last year is almost a similar picture. The exchanges galloped all year round: either a bullish rally for a raise, a correction, then a new rally, but one parameter steadily fell all year — the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) transport index.

Cargo traffic in the United States declined throughout the year, and although US statistics consistently concealed real data on unemployment and industrial production (which is also falling), it is impossible to hide the deplorable business of transport companies. As a result, DJTA lost more than 21% in a year.

Precisely because shipping is so important, almost everyone reacted so emotionally to the fake about the complete cessation of navigation in the Atlantic.



Well, all the fall in the US market last week is only a weak echo of what is happening on the “physical” level of the American economy.

If this overview has helped you better understand what is happening - I am very happy.

UPD. They asked - I answer: The volume of the Russian market of commercial freight traffic grew in 2014 year by 3-5% compared to 2013 year.
According to 2015, a growth of about the same amount was planned, but there is no data yet, because the year has just ended. Somewhere in a month should be.
Author:
Originator:
http://jpgazeta.ru/aleksandr-rodzhers-kratkiy-ekonomicheskiy-likbez-dlya-ponimaniya-mirovogo-krizisa/
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  1. Decathlon
    Decathlon 13 January 2016 08: 58 New
    -21
    "... but the deplorable affairs of the transport companies cannot be hidden ..."
    My company has already felt this: "Plato" in action!
    1. chikenous59
      chikenous59 13 January 2016 09: 06 New
      17
      It is unlikely that the whole point is in Plato.
      The crisis is complex, and this is not only a matter of extortion.
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 13 January 2016 09: 24 New
        18
        Quote: chikenous59
        The crisis is complex, and this is not only a matter of extortion.

        It seems to me that Plato was conceived in order to bring gray schemes of cargo transportation into the legal channel. The only trouble is that honest carriers can suffer, but here, I think, the law will still be adjusted.
        1. Rostovchanin
          Rostovchanin 13 January 2016 14: 09 New
          +3
          I fully support not only gray schemes, but also what is transported. To make the freight market very transparent. And this will kill more than one hare ... All whining about the prohibitively high costs of even individual drivers is a provocation. Because if everything is legal, this fee will fall on the shoulders of the end consumer and only "he" has to howl. But our people are persistent :) they endure and remain silent until a certain time, and then everything is meaningless and merciless :)
        2. The comment was deleted.
    2. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 07 New
      12
      Quote: Decathlon
      My company has already felt this: "Plato" in action!

      Your koment in general about what?
      1. Decathlon
        Decathlon 13 January 2016 09: 14 New
        +1
        My koment is about the following: in addition to the negative global trends in the transport sector, the Motherland added another requisition, which, ultimately, will affect a simple average man, including you, profitably ?! hi
        1. Alexander Romanov
          Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 17 New
          +3
          Quote: Decathlon
          , on you, including. Profitablely ?!

          I see, are you a truck driver? Or at least, what do you know about the prices of Plato?
          1. Decathlon
            Decathlon 13 January 2016 09: 27 New
            +2
            Almost. At our enterprise there are 26 "trucks" refrigerators. Large suppliers of products began to refuse our services to maintain average network prices and began to switch to "small-tonnages". And in my city, there are no other delivery methods. I understand that the scale is far from global, but people with whom I have worked for 15-18 years lose their earnings, and this is bad. No ?!
            1. Riv
              Riv 13 January 2016 09: 32 New
              -5
              And what's wrong with that? Well, I lost bourgeois earnings. He joined the ranks of the proletariat. What's wrong?
              1. Decathlon
                Decathlon 13 January 2016 09: 37 New
                +7
                Has our trucker become a bourgeois ?! I’ll go and explain this to people ...
                1. Riv
                  Riv 13 January 2016 10: 24 New
                  +2
                  If the trucker had his own business, then of course he is a bourgeois. Capitalist, if smart. And if he simply was left without work, then what does "Plato" have to do with it? The system is dealt with by his employer, again: a capitalist who cannot withstand the competition in the new conditions.
                  1. SRC P-15
                    SRC P-15 13 January 2016 10: 54 New
                    +5
                    Quote: Riv
                    If the trucker had his own business, then of course he was a bourgeois. Capitalist, if smart.

                    The capitalist is the one who profits from the labor of others. On whose work is the trucker profiting if he owns one truck and there are no employees?
                    On the bourgeois, he does not pull.
                    1. Riv
                      Riv 13 January 2016 13: 17 New
                      -1
                      Well, he also has private ownership of the means of production, right? He owns the truck, not A.S. Pushkin. The exploitation of wage labor is secondary. So the capitalist, anyway.

                      In fact, the class identity of the trucker is not so important here. The very existence of classes is associated with forms of production, so that it can be difficult to define. In this case, it is important that state capital is opposed to private. It should please any socialist.
            2. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 39 New
              -1
              Quote: Decathlon
              ". And in my city, there are no other delivery methods

              Are You from Moscow?
              1. Decathlon
                Decathlon 13 January 2016 09: 41 New
                +2
                God forbid! belay
            3. Alexander Romanov
              Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 11: 06 New
              0
              Quote: Decathlon
              Almost. We have 26 "trucks" refrigerators at our enterprise

              I see, what kind of tractors do you have?
            4. Jack-b
              Jack-b 13 January 2016 13: 18 New
              0
              Quote: Decathlon
              began to refuse our services to maintain average network prices and began to switch to "small-tonnage"

              Something is hard to believe that because of the "Plato" "low tonnage" became more profitable than heavy trucks. Unless, of course, tangerines were transported to city grocery stores on large trucks. Can you show in numbers?
            5. The comment was deleted.
            6. Rostovchanin
              Rostovchanin 13 January 2016 14: 16 New
              +4
              temporary stupidity of "large suppliers of products", how many small-tonnages should be hired in a row to cut off the required volume of supplies? And they also consume diesel fuel, depreciation of the car and, most importantly, in this case, the driver's salary. In a wagon, he is usually alone, and in a low-tonnage 2 or even 3 per wagon. now the costs are higher. Even taking into account the collection of Plato, it will be more economical on a long car (not so much there is 3 rubles per 1000 km = 3000 rubles from one cargo, sometimes even more is given to cops, including for overload).
            7. The comment was deleted.
      2. WKS
        WKS 13 January 2016 10: 59 New
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: Decathlon
        My company has already felt this: "Plato" in action!

        Your koment in general about what?

        Can a human activist move? He wants to remind once again of his existence, but he ended up on the wrong site.
    3. MIKHAN
      MIKHAN 13 January 2016 09: 09 New
      20
      I liked the article. Especially this expression, just think about it!
      About Facebook, which is “more expensive” than Gazprom

      In general, all these "crises" are artificial, soap bubbles, but huge (very huge) money is earned on them at the expense of you and me ... Russia is being robbed now!
      1. assam4
        assam4 13 January 2016 23: 21 New
        0
        And who is robbing her ???
    4. The comment was deleted.
    5. Xmyp
      Xmyp 13 January 2016 10: 00 New
      11
      Quote: Decathlon
      "... but the deplorable affairs of the transport companies cannot be hidden ..."
      My company has already felt this: "Plato" in action!


      Worse at once?
      Let’s do the calculation. The cost of 1 km is 3,6 rubles, totaling 3000 km is 10 thousand +
      How much will the price of a 20 ton truck for example with oranges rise in price? On average, 20 cents per 1 kg.

      But the fact that the roads were killed by wagons in 2 years, you don’t see.
      Well, you know, throwing me for a suspension a year at 100k somehow does not suit me.
      1. Decathlon
        Decathlon 13 January 2016 10: 17 New
        +7
        Ask yourself the question: why do we pay the transport tax (we have 32000 per unit at our enterprise), and deductions to the road fund are included in the price of fuel!
        1. Vadim237
          Vadim237 13 January 2016 12: 07 New
          0
          This year, maybe the transport tax will be canceled.
          1. Angry orc
            Angry orc 13 January 2016 15: 40 New
            +3
            Optimists have not yet translated in Russia =)
          2. Angry orc
            Angry orc 13 January 2016 15: 40 New
            0
            Optimists have not yet translated in Russia =)
    6. lukewarm
      lukewarm 13 January 2016 10: 00 New
      +3
      The author claims that everything is OK with transportation.
    7. avt
      avt 13 January 2016 10: 10 New
      +1
      Quote: Decathlon
      My company has already felt this: "Plato" in action!

      The GDP seems to have been canceled, well, at least it slipped through the media.
      1. SRC P-15
        SRC P-15 13 January 2016 10: 19 New
        +1
        No, it's completely different:
        "Following a large press conference held on December 17, 2015, V. Putin instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to make proposals until April to abolish the transport tax on trucks heavier than 12 tons, since after the launch of the Platon system, carriers have to pay for road damage several times."
  2. V.ic
    V.ic 13 January 2016 09: 00 New
    +8
    Thank you, the author, encouraged ... I will stop waking up at night from thoughts about the global crisis.
    1. atalef
      atalef 13 January 2016 09: 16 New
      -4
      Quote: V.ic
      Thank you, the author, encouraged ... I will stop waking up at night from thoughts about the global crisis.

      the author, spread a billiard (with a scanty amount of facts) so that he would not look like a layman at all
      According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2015, the volume of goods transported by road decreased by 9,4%, in March it fell by 9,3% to 391,4 million tons. Registration of new trucks with a gross weight of 3,5 tons for the first quarter decreased by 41%, according to the materials of the National Agency for Industrial Information. The Russian truck market with a gross weight of 14 – 40 t as a whole fell by 62% to 9200 units, Kamaz OJSC informed that sales of Kamaz itself fell by 49%.

      What the author -> author -> the author said about trucking in Russia - there is no data for 2015? Does Rosstat not exist?
      And so the whole article will be later in time, I will analyze it by the bones.
      1. Grim Reaper
        Grim Reaper 13 January 2016 09: 25 New
        +8
        Come on :) It will be especially interesting to find out why Facebook is still cooler than Gazprom. :)
      2. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 09: 40 New
        0
        Quote: atalef
        And so the whole article will be later in time, I will analyze it by the bones.

        Sasha, this article is not worth it .. also revealed to me a great truth - where you need to look to find out about the crisis is too simple to be true. minus set.
        1. avt
          avt 13 January 2016 10: 16 New
          +4
          Quote: afdjhbn67
          too simple to be true. minus set.

          And you can also run away and put Marx / Levy a minus for "commodity-money-commodity" and about the fact that there is no such crime on which capital will not go for the sake of 300% of the profit, well, after all, he simply said that and wrote it down on paper.
      3. Jack-b
        Jack-b 13 January 2016 19: 04 New
        +2
        Quote: atalef
        the author, spread a billiard (with a scanty amount of facts) so that he would not look like a layman at all
        According to Rosstat, in the first quarter of 2015, the volume of goods transported by road decreased by 9,4%, in March it fell by 9,3% to 391,4 million tons. Registration of new trucks with a gross weight of 3,5 tons for the first quarter decreased by 41%, according to the materials of the National Agency for Industrial Information. The Russian truck market with a gross weight of 14 – 40 t as a whole fell by 62% to 9200 units, Kamaz OJSC informed that sales of Kamaz itself fell by 49%.

        What did the author -> author -> the author say about cargo transportation in Russia - no data for 2015? Rosstat does not exist

        It is interesting that Rossstat exists and its statistics for 2015 on cargo transportation is not yet available. If you do not believe, look for yourself:
        http://www.gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/enterprise/

        transport / #
        As for the article from Vedomosti, it's not clear where they got the data. What's even more interesting is the train of thought in this article. The bankruptcy of a large transport company is cited as a vivid example. As if by a glimpse the thought passes that they themselves turned down the price, but nevertheless at the end it is concluded that by the end of the year 40% of carriers will leave the market. In theory, this should confirm the thought made in the first paragraph: the road freight market is losing almost 10% every month. But here is the fact that, for example, all the leased vehicles of a bankrupt company were transferred to another transport company and as a result, it will receive bankruptcy volumes, as it is not particularly taken into account. We must pay tribute to Vedomosti, although they pull the blanket in one direction, but at least in passing mention "non-fitting" facts. Although where they got the statistics for 2015 is still unclear.
        Threat. The Vedomosti website is for some reason located in France ....
  3. venaya
    venaya 13 January 2016 09: 01 New
    +5
    In principle, the author is right in the sense that a decrease in the activity of freight transportation to a large extent speaks of a decrease in both business activity and a decrease in production indicators, there is nothing to carry. By the way, initially the Dow Jones index in the XNUMXth century was determined by the activity of the largest US transport (railway) companies.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 08 New
      0
      Quote: venaya

      In principle, the author is right in that respect that the decline in freight activity

      Are the ports worth it? Do ports of the world stop loading ships?
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich 13 January 2016 10: 44 New
        +3
        Quote: Alexander Romanov
        Quote: venaya

        In principle, the author is right in that respect that the decline in freight activity

        Are the ports worth it? Do ports of the world stop loading ships?

        yes Sanya! and you do not know that the "Neptune" maritime system is being introduced, they will take "rupees" for every mile! sea ​​carriers are terrified, "private traders" are urgently getting rid of tankers and bulk carriers ... wassat
  4. chikenous59
    chikenous59 13 January 2016 09: 02 New
    13
    It has long been clear that the global economy is artificial.
    The economy is growing on the stock exchange. It was very profitable for the West to make an economic model for themselves.
    We will never be able to live well with such conditions.
    Thanks to speculation, we will always be slowed down in development.
    I hope that smoothly, systematically this model will change due to the efforts of the BRICS, SCO, etc.
    Enough to live in financial pyramids, money should not be given out to banks to maintain viability, but industry, science, military-industrial complex and all other strategic sectors.
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 09: 41 New
      +5
      Quote: chikenous59
      BRICS

      Have you heard anything about BRICS in the past six months ??
      1. sa-ag
        sa-ag 13 January 2016 10: 42 New
        +1
        Quote: afdjhbn67
        Have you heard anything about BRICS in the past six months ??

        on such news as it was, very interesting - "... MOSCOW, November 9, 2015, 19:29 - REGNUM One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, has terminated the work of the BRIC fund, which has invested in Russia, Brazil, India and China.

        Details: http://regnum.ru/news/polit/2008070.html Any use of materials is allowed only if there is a hyperlink to the IA REGNUM. "
      2. TORMAN
        TORMAN 13 January 2016 12: 50 New
        -2
        BRICS - of course we know, these are pressed sawdust, the size of a brick, used instead of firewood, burn longer, and at a price comparable to birch firewood.
    2. Alf
      Alf 13 January 2016 21: 54 New
      +1
      Quote: chikenous59
      Enough to live in financial pyramids, money should not be given out to banks to maintain viability, but industry, science, military-industrial complex and all other strategic sectors.

      You explain this to our government and the wisest.
      1. PHANTOM-AS
        PHANTOM-AS 13 January 2016 22: 01 New
        0
        Quote: Alf
        You explain this to our government and the wisest.

        here scream, do not scream request
      2. The comment was deleted.
  5. avvg
    avvg 13 January 2016 09: 03 New
    +1
    In my opinion, the market’s invisible hand will long regulate the crisis itself, if any.
  6. Barakuda
    Barakuda 13 January 2016 09: 04 New
    +6
    About Facebook, which is “more expensive” than Gazprom, I’m generally better not say anything.

    The wonders of business. winked or the dullness of the townsfolk .. And Zuckerberg drives an old Volkswagen, is afraid of technology ..
    1. MIKHAN
      MIKHAN 13 January 2016 09: 25 New
      +6
      Quote: Barracuda
      About Facebook, which is “more expensive” than Gazprom, I’m generally better not say anything.

      The wonders of business. winked or the dullness of the townsfolk .. And Zuckerberg drives an old Volkswagen, is afraid of technology ..

      Miracles are not the right word .... I’m always thinking about it, how do they do such a trick?
      Cheap oil-Cheap gasoline-Cheap trucking-Cheap goods .... And vice versa! hi
      1. afdjhbn67
        afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 09: 43 New
        0
        Quote: MIKHAN
        Miracles are not the right word

        Their if on a bike type - tandem plant it will also be exactly the opposite
      2. sa-ag
        sa-ag 13 January 2016 10: 49 New
        +1
        Quote: MIKHAN
        Cheap oil-Cheap gasoline-Cheap trucking-Cheap goods .... And vice versa!

        cheap oil on the market becomes expensive for producing countries, more precisely, oil is produced in the country, the price of the exchange falls on it, but production is growing in price (production costs have not gone away) and the refinery is not so profitable to take it, the amount of oil is processing is reduced, but the plant also wants to live, and it does not lower the price of fuel and lubricants in order to somehow stay afloat
    2. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 09: 42 New
      0
      Quote: Barracuda
      The wonders of business. or stupidity of the inhabitants

      No, d. Raki they are there, and smart A. Rogers
    3. TORMAN
      TORMAN 13 January 2016 12: 52 New
      0
      the rich have their quirks, by the way, quite justified.
  7. mpzss
    mpzss 13 January 2016 09: 05 New
    0
    Thank you, everything is clear and laid out on the shelves!
    Only the Americans, all the same, will come out at the expense of their candy wrappers ...
    there is also an old (filmed in the early 2000s) film "the magic dollar", there are two parts, everything is also clear there, from where the legs grow in the "welfare" of amers, find it in the search, it should be easy to find
  8. Alexander Romanov
    Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 06 New
    +1
    Nonsense on shipping, based on the same map in the Pacific Ocean, too, ships stopped going.
    1. 787nkx
      787nkx 13 January 2016 12: 28 New
      0
      If an absolute chaotic process is fixed at a certain moment in time, then a certain order can be traced there. But the chaos is that at the next moment of time the position of the process participants (maybe even ships) is unpredictable.
  9. Belarus
    Belarus 13 January 2016 09: 09 New
    +2
    Interesting and useful article :) Thanks good
  10. Yak-3P
    Yak-3P 13 January 2016 09: 10 New
    0
    Yes, I don’t understand it at all ... we launch into space 2-3 times a month .. the cosmos are the most !! high technology, etc. etc. what x..i bucks above our ruble ?? we have oil-gas-forest-kilowatts and the bucks are higher !! let them say - and now 1bax = 63 kopecks .. there will be .. there will be ..
    1. Geosun
      Geosun 13 January 2016 09: 33 New
      +3
      Very simple answer. Let's say we need elementary fasteners for fixtures, so ordering it in Italy, bringing it and clearing it by all rules will be half the price than ordering and delivering it from central Russia. This is the essence of our finished products at times more expensive.
      1. TORMAN
        TORMAN 13 January 2016 12: 54 New
        +1
        Who is to blame and what to do?
        1. afdjhbn67
          afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 15: 00 New
          +1
          Quote: torman
          Who is to blame and what to do?

          1-fools и 2-The roads)))
  11. Woodman
    Woodman 13 January 2016 09: 19 New
    -1
    Crisis ... crisis ... It is necessary to work, not to trade papers on exchanges.
    1. afdjhbn67
      afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 09: 45 New
      +6
      Quote: Lesovik
      Need to work

      Yes you earn - got it am
      1. Woodman
        Woodman 13 January 2016 09: 52 New
        +2
        Do not worry)))
        1. afdjhbn67
          afdjhbn67 13 January 2016 10: 10 New
          +3
          Quote: Lesovik
          Do not worry))

          sort of let go)))
  12. ibu355yandex.ru
    ibu355yandex.ru 13 January 2016 09: 20 New
    +4
    Good article! It is an educational program that is necessary for a "mere mortal" to understand the current situation. There is no need for theoretical sophistication that the Liberal Government feeds us with.
    1. Alexander Romanov
      Alexander Romanov 13 January 2016 09: 25 New
      0
      Quote: ibu355yandex.ru
      Good article! It is an educational program, what is necessary for a "mere mortal" to understand the current situation

      I am a "mere mortal" and do not fucking understand what's what. Especially about the fact that shipping has stopped.
      Quote: ibu355yandex.ru
      We do not need the theoretical delights that the Liberal Government feeds us.

      Again, the government is to blame for everything. In fact, think of something new.
      1. Mareman Vasilich
        Mareman Vasilich 13 January 2016 09: 45 New
        +3
        This is how there will not be in the country of the current almost two tens of millions of people below the poverty line (the poor), so it will be possible to come up with something else. And so, that neither reform from the government, nor laws, then acts of vandalism. It’s on TV with Peskov and Kiselev in Russia, everything is fine, in fact, the situation is deplorable. The authorities have long had time to tackle problems within the country, rather than serve moneybags.
        1. TORMAN
          TORMAN 13 January 2016 12: 56 New
          +5
          Money bags put power, with what fright will it serve people?
      2. nekot
        nekot 13 January 2016 11: 44 New
        0
        Shipping is mentioned in the article as an example of a fake, which caused a lot of discussion, nothing more. And "comrade" atalef really can not bother himself with parsing "bone by bone" - with his habit of specifying 2-3 options when analyzing \ Russia's actions \ Putin and claim that they are the worst and the worst, and our sworn partners are always doing well (according to his posts) and a full set of win-win options))) By the way, about Rosstat statistics for 2015, atalef is directly involved in the substitution of concepts - it still exists for the first quarters of 2015 ( not for the whole) and in total it is not at all as bad as in the passage he quoted))
  13. Barakuda
    Barakuda 13 January 2016 09: 26 New
    +4
    Quote: Lesovik
    Crisis ... crisis ... It is necessary to work, not to trade papers on exchanges.

    So on this damned capitalism and holds.
    And the people would not hurt to read K. Marx's "Capital" .. All different bourgeois know this work, in vain something at Harvard and not only teach .. And we are in the trash .. in vain.
  14. Geosun
    Geosun 13 January 2016 09: 28 New
    +1
    Quote: chikenous59
    Enough to live in financial pyramids, money should not be given out to banks to maintain viability, but industry, science, military-industrial complex and all other strategic sectors.

    Firstly, banks give out money. And secondly, imagine a certain organization received a loan, so where is it more profitable to invest in production that will pay off in 5 years or in currency that will pay off in half a year?
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 13 January 2016 09: 59 New
      +3
      At current loan rates, most production projects do not pay off at all, only currency speculation remains. Our government and the Central Bank themselves are pushing investors to do this, and then they blame someone else.
    2. chikenous59
      chikenous59 13 January 2016 10: 04 New
      +2
      Quote: Geosun
      Firstly, banks give out money. And secondly, imagine a certain organization received a loan, so where is it more profitable to invest in production that will pay off in 5 years or in currency that will pay off in half a year?

      Banks receive money for additional capitalization, and this is another bubble, because most of this money will not go to finance important projects, but to speculation on the stock exchange.
      As for much more profitable to invest: the company should not have such a question. State funding should be allocated to a specific project, and not just like that.
      There were federal target programs in our country. What prevents the same help enterprises? I think that high profits from speculation on the exchange, easy money. Banks are not up to us, they have different goals.
      1. Grbear
        Grbear 13 January 2016 11: 28 New
        +2
        Lord! Money is the blood of the economy, and blood cannot be a commodity, as in the existing economic system. And the blood flow should be controlled by the brain, not the stomach.
        And stock markets, from economic and financial indicators of production efficiency and social significance of a product (service), have degenerated into an instrument of speculation based on insider information and political insinuations. And also, thanks to the uncontrolled release of "petrodollars".
        Something like that. hi
  15. Dam
    Dam 13 January 2016 09: 28 New
    +1
    Thank you for the article. Out of cycle popular economy
  16. R-140
    R-140 13 January 2016 09: 32 New
    +1
    Well, something like that was spinning in my head, thanks to the author, I put everything in its place.
  17. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 13 January 2016 09: 34 New
    +1
    Frankly - I do not trade in shares, I do not produce oil from myself, I do not have dollars. Conclusion - the article is not for the average person who does not give a damn what is happening on the international stock markets. The main thing is that the price of services and products does not grow rapidly and indexes the salary pension.
    1. Ayujak
      Ayujak 13 January 2016 09: 51 New
      +1
      Unfortunately, everything that happens on world markets applies and each many Russians. The economy of the Russian Federation is integrated into the world economy. For example, world demand for the products of resource-mining companies of the Russian Federation is falling, the value of shares on the stock markets is falling, companies are not making a profit, budget revenues are declining, social spending is being cut. programs, etc., etc. This is, in short.
      1. rotmistr60
        rotmistr60 13 January 2016 10: 22 New
        0
        I mean, everyone in their place should do their own thing, and good.
  18. Red_Hamer
    Red_Hamer 13 January 2016 09: 36 New
    +1
    Everything has been said many times and is popularly shown by the late General K.P. Petrov. Who is this educational program for?
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 13 January 2016 10: 03 New
      +1
      The liberals did not listen to him, and B. Yeltsin did the same, although he proposed a concrete program for overcoming the crisis and sent it to the Duma.
  19. asiat_61
    asiat_61 13 January 2016 09: 43 New
    0
    We are rubbing our ears about the crisis, sanctions, oil. But how did the USSR raise it after the Second World War? They don’t want to do anything and explain it with objective reasons. That’s the Americans, then the Arabs, then the Ukrainians, just not our government. topic, everything is already said.
    1. Barakuda
      Barakuda 13 January 2016 10: 15 New
      0
      The Khreshchatyk was built entirely by captured Germans, for example, they put their mother at a friend's place for 5 years in 52nd for stealing 300 grams. sugar, two sons street children. The hunger was terrible. And so it was built, with a bang. Who lives in Siberia knows how many zones there were. The village generally smelled of a ball, try a handful of rye from the field to bring - a prison. sad
      1. sleeping sayan
        sleeping sayan 13 January 2016 10: 22 New
        +1
        In Siberia, they do not live but live.
  20. lex locis
    lex locis 13 January 2016 09: 49 New
    +2
    The article is normal.
    Conclusion: there are objective indicators, but there are subjective ones (see Marxist-Leninist philosophy, so to speak ....)
    But the meaning of the market is not to fool, not to sell. And the Americans are very talented at selling their pieces of paper (i.e. they are deceiving the whole world) due to the frantic advertising of these pieces of paper (stocks).
  21. Nikolay K
    Nikolay K 13 January 2016 09: 56 New
    +1
    About the saturated demand and supply limit, the author himself came up with? Demand and supply are more or less elastic in one or another time interval. For example, enterprises operate at the limit of production capacity and even with increasing demand, and with it prices, will not be able to significantly increase production. But this is in the short term. But over time, you can build new plants and the supply will increase. In this sense, the example of shale oil is quite indicative: how much they trumpeted about the exhaustion of oil reserves, and it is being produced more and more.
    1. Selevc
      Selevc 13 January 2016 10: 52 New
      +2
      Quote: Nikolai K
      In this sense, the example of shale oil is quite indicative: how much they trumpeted about the exhaustion of oil reserves, and it is being produced more and more.

      But oil reserves are actually limited ... The volume of consumption of petroleum products around the world is constantly growing (China + other emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, etc. ...). You think how many people in the last 20-30 years around the world got a car? (This is an example only at the household level) ... The quantity is measured at least in the hundreds of millions ... How many various industries that consume petroleum products in one way or another are being built and developed around the world ??? Plus, the development of transport infrastructure ...
      The world consumes petroleum products more and more ... Over the past 10-20 years, the pace of consumption outstrips the pace of oil production ...
      The whole modern crisis is completely artificial and caused only by political reasons and that’s it !!! The two main initiators of the US + Saudi crisis - everything is clear here, they have already worked together more than once ...
      Whoever believes in shale oil is a completely naive person !!! Shale oil is a bluff, it’s all American fairy tales - no shale oil deposits can closely compare with the world's largest oil production regions ... Talking about some influence of shale oil production is like calling Elephant and Moska the same animals ... Otherwise it’s just that historically the West would not have been so tied to the Gulf countries ...
      The largest war in the 21st century is now being waged for natural resources - but not for mythical shale oil but for influence on traditional oil production regions ... There is a confrontation between the largest players in the oil business - and who will fall first will devour !!! And then oil will again soar higher than 100 bucks a barrel ...
      1. Nikolay K
        Nikolay K 13 January 2016 20: 40 New
        0
        In the long run, we will all die, but that does not mean that you should not live. So natural resources seem to end up, but they will still be replaced by something. The same oil is primarily just a source of energy production. If oil runs out, other sources of energy will be found. It is only a matter of time and money.
  22. vobels
    vobels 13 January 2016 09: 56 New
    +1
    Quote: rotmistr60
    Frankly - I do not trade in shares, I do not produce oil from myself, I do not have dollars. Conclusion - the article is not for the average person who does not give a damn what is happening on the international stock markets. The main thing is that the price of services and products does not grow rapidly and indexes the salary pension.

    That's right! I can’t influence the stock market, but these explanations are so that the government would not scold or something?
  23. Stinger
    Stinger 13 January 2016 10: 02 New
    +3
    The fall is explained to the extent of their literacy. And what is growth? For example, a plant produced 10 products and sold them all for 50 thousand apiece. Then he began to produce 5 products, but sold them at 150 thousand and laid off half of the workers. Question. Is it growth go recession? All these arguments about the capital economy of bullshit. This is chaos. Everyone runs to where there is more profit and bring production to the point of absurdity. Like oil now. Then bummer and all over again. The mechanism has long been described by Marx. And no pseudo-economists, poking around in the particulars of the phenomenon, can explain anything.
  24. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat 13 January 2016 10: 18 New
    +4
    Exchanges were created in the era of the absence of the Internet to trade goods and raw materials in order to make it easier for buyers and manufacturers to find each other. However, later, "bankers" and other "speculators" pushed through the possibility of trading through exchanges by "capitalization", that is, "shares", "securities" and other paper "rubbish". That is, they "dragged" the opportunity to trade in "air". The exchanges initially opposed this, but since they live on interest from transactions, by and large they do not care where to get their interest, the main thing is that there are more transactions, and therefore the "norm" of trading in "waste paper" has taken hold. Even at the beginning of the 20th century, literate economists of the "old school" predicted the danger of trading in the "non-existent", which could lead to an overestimation of the value of the economy and inflate a "money bubble", but they did not obey. Now on the stock exchanges "waste paper" prevails over "real production" and the real value of the economy is calculated from the sum of the cost of "waste paper" and "real production" and therefore the real cost of the economy is greatly overestimated, which does not allow us to really look at its state, and now, under this one, inflated rate of value of the world economy, the United States and prints its "paper wrappers". Actually, economists who really have brains in their heads say that in modern conditions it is necessary ... to close the exchanges. They are no longer needed. There is the Internet, which allows you to directly enter into contracts with the manufacturer, bypassing intermediaries and speculators who "recouped" the exchanges. Exchanges have degenerated from a tool that helps to sell finished products into a hotbed of speculative interest for all kinds of speculators, and now they must be removed.
    1. voyaka uh
      voyaka uh 13 January 2016 11: 07 New
      +7
      "Actually, economists who really have brains in their heads
      they say that in modern conditions it is necessary ... to close the exchanges. They are no longer needed "////

      They are no longer needed in the form in which they are functioning now.
      But they will not disappear. They will go online. Where there are already agents, auctions,
      wholesalers, futures, and all the tramp ...
  25. Fitter65
    Fitter65 13 January 2016 12: 17 New
    +1
    Plato, Platon, but the trucks came to us, and they come. And not only from the Far Eastern Federal District, even with Krasnodar license plates, they come to us in Komsomolsk-on-Amur about 4 days ago, and not bought there, but really Sochi trucks. Isn't it so "unprofitable" that for 10000 miles you were driving? In the summer you crawl along the highway behind a column of 5-6 trucks, though I agree on the summer, the gardeners slow down the movement, winter came the same picture, now bad road conditions snow, ice, ice, and they on bald rubber, without chains - "Plato # does not give an opportunity ...
  26. skrabplus.ru
    skrabplus.ru 13 January 2016 12: 33 New
    0
    falling freight traffic, it was immediately clear that there would be a significant drop in GDP. Cargo transportation in some areas then fell by 50-70%, which hinted at the unfolding crisis.
    if freight traffic (external and internal) did not really decrease (but increase) despite the food embargo on the gay people, Ukrainians and half-Turks, but increase, then questions arise: what kind of banana does the Central Bank not reduce the $ exchange rate? and why fuel is not getting cheaper but adding?
  27. Corsair0304
    Corsair0304 13 January 2016 13: 31 New
    +3
    I liked the article, although it didn’t open anything special. The main thing is written in an accessible language, for a simple layman.

    Quote: MIKHAN
    Miracles are not the right word .... I’m always thinking about it, how do they do such a trick?
    Cheap oil-Cheap gasoline-Cheap trucking-Cheap goods .... And vice versa!


    I was always amazed at this. Last year, it was justified that refineries bought oil at high prices and are about to start purchasing at low prices and everything will be tip-top. And everyone will start pouring 98th gasoline for three kopecks .. A year has passed, oil has collapsed even more, and the price of gasoline (kerosene) has risen ....
    One is a coincidence, two is an accident, but when the price is steadily gaining growth, a doubt creeps in "is this a conspiracy of unscrupulous sellers?" In my opinion, the FAS Russia needs to be dispersed as well as the State Duma, they do not catch mice sitting. On the emblem of the Federal Antimonopoly Service, instead of two wands of Hermes, three monkeys should be depicted "I don't see, I don't hear, I won't tell." More will be true.
  28. Flat5160
    Flat5160 13 January 2016 13: 39 New
    -1
    Stop sobbing around Plato. We pay taxes both in Soviet times and now, and they, especially whoever has their own car, is never the first. And the second, he will receive a pension without paying taxes? Will be! How many are there in the country? A lot of! For example, I know a few. And then they began to be brought into the light of day by God and everyone wept, especially the noble truckers Navalny and the Announcers of Echo of Moscow. Just estimate how much it costs for them to transfer the load per 100 km. and everything will fall into place, just count and the moans will pass and you will be puzzled by previous convictions about this.
    1. Nikolay K
      Nikolay K 13 January 2016 20: 45 New
      0
      Noble Troll, even the nickname picked up a suitable one. Although I personally agree that the mileage fee itself is normal. Not only the presence of the Rotenbergs is normal. And what is interesting, when a certain event is beneficial for such rotenbergs, the issue is solved in two ways, despite everything but. And when the country and people need it, nothing is solved for years.
  29. MIKHAN
    MIKHAN 13 January 2016 14: 46 New
    +2
    I think this statement is just right for the article! Crises, courses, stocks ... damn it (we’ve been living under capitalism for 25 years), and all the same and worse and worse ... After all, now there’s another robbery of Russia, they just call it's a crisis!
  30. Gavril
    Gavril 14 January 2016 03: 45 New
    0
    Here are the things, what is the dofiga of truckers gathered here? Do you even know how and who determines the cost of transportation?
  31. Evgen1964
    Evgen1964 14 January 2016 13: 13 New
    0
    As a result of many years of inflating the value of Western (primarily American) companies, their market value is many times higher than the nominal value. Most of them can’t show normal profit, therefore they emphasize the “growth of capitalization.” I completely agree, and they don’t have normal profit either, just turn around capitalization