Military Review

Afghan fire and his arsonists

The situation in Afghanistan is approaching a critical one. The civil war is growing stronger, a ring of fire embracing Kabul. NATO forces, who arbitrarily extended their mandate, are not going to fight fire, on the contrary, using it to maintain their influence in the region.

Medieval Enclave

Imagine doctors who are spreading a dangerous disease to make money from treating unsuspecting patients. Or firefighters who set fire to homes at night and then "selflessly" fight fire. This is not the plot of a cheap detective story, but a tactic of the United States of America and its allies, brilliantly used in Afghanistan.

The occupation of this country by a coalition led by the United States continues for the fifteenth year. However, Afghanistan has not become more secure or more developed state during this time. According to the human development index - a complex indicator that includes the standard of living, literacy and life expectancy - the country ranks last in Eurasia, passing only a few African states ahead. The average life expectancy here does not exceed 50 years, and the literacy rate is 28 percent. Since the invasion of Western troops, this figure has not changed, while in less than 10 years of the Soviet presence, the proportion of literate citizens has increased from 5 to 25 percent.

In fact, Afghanistan remains a medieval enclave, the overwhelming majority of whose inhabitants do not have access to the elementary benefits of civilization. For example, only 15 percent of the urban population and 6 percent of the rural population use electricity. The industry, with the exception of a few cement plants and food industry enterprises, mostly built by Soviet specialists, is represented by small artisan workshops, and the share of the working-age population employed in it does not exceed 5 percent. Most of the inhabitants are engaged in agriculture, but it is also at a primitive level of development. It is not surprising that the majority of farms are natural, and the country imports the lion's share of food from abroad.

Perhaps the only dynamically developing industry for many years remains the cultivation of opium poppy. If in 2001, his crops occupied 7 thousand hectares, in 2014 the plantation of a narcotic potion grew to 250 thousand hectares. Afghanistan produces more than 6 thousand tons of raw opium, or 800 tons of heroin annually. The Western coalition not only does not fight this evil, but, according to a number of data, is deeply involved in the drug business.

On the whole, during the occupation, Afghanistan turned into a pseudo-state entity completely dependent on foreign aid. Exporting goods to 600-700 million dollars annually, Kabul imports them to 8 billion, and two-thirds of the budget comes from external infusions. However, a significant part of foreign aid either settles in the pockets of a narrow circle of officials, or does not reach the addressee at all. In the West, one after another, scandals have arisen (but also are being quickly extinguished) related to the expenditure of funds allegedly going to the "restoration" of Afghanistan. In November last year, for example, it turned out that the US Department of Defense had built a gas station in Shibargan for ... 43 million dollars. And a group of Pentagon employees spent 150 millions of dollars to stay in the country, because instead of staying at the embassy buildings, they asked the authorities for money to buy the best mansions in Kabul.

In other words, the West, led by the United States, first mothballed Afghanistan in a backward state, and now throws up its hands, sighing: they say, you see yourself - without our help, the country will not survive!

Ring shrinks

The same goes for the security situation. The central authority, headed by American President Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, is more or less controlled only by the metropolitan area. The rest of the territory is ruled by either tribal elders and clan leaders, who still retain formal loyalty to Kabul, or militants of various factions.

Last year, the extremists achieved serious success. As a result of the offensive that began in the spring, they established control over a number of areas in the north of the country. By rough estimates, at present, militants control at least 20 percent of Afghan territory, and in the south and east government forces hold only large cities: the whole countryside is under the rule of the Taliban and other factions. They appoint shadow governors and are de facto masters of entire provinces.

A feature of the last offensive was the new tactics of militants. If earlier they were content with control over the countryside, bypassing the well-fortified cities, now the district and even provincial centers are becoming increasingly targets. In late September, the Islamists seized the 300-thousandth city of Kunduz in the north of the country and held it for more than a week. Among the recent high-profile operations are the attack on Kandahar airport, the seizure of Hanashin district in Helmand province, Yamgan district in Badakhshan, and several areas in the eastern province of Nangarhar. The threat of falling looms over the capital of this region - the city of Jalalabad. But it is located just a hundred kilometers from Kabul!

The government army demonstrates weakness and retreats whenever it does not have overwhelming numerical superiority. At first glance, this weakness looks more than strange. If you add up the numbers of the Afghan army (178 thousand), police (150 thousand) and self-defense units (30 thousand), you get an impressive force that is fivefold higher than the number of militants of all groups (60-70 thousand). In addition, NATO instructors are engaged in the training and training of government troops.

In fact, this superiority is visible. The army has almost no heavy weapons, and the air force is represented by a small number of helicopters, mainly Soviet-made. The command of the coalition forces explains this fear of hitting weapons into the hands of extremists. But most importantly, the morale of the Afghan armed forces is extremely low. Only money keeps people in the army: the army of Afghanistan is recruited exclusively on a contract basis.

As for Western instructors, the effectiveness of their help is questionable. As in Iraq or Syria, trained units often flee from the battlefield, or go over to the side of the enemy.

Continuation of the occupation

Thus, there is a clear reluctance of the United States and its allies to create conditions for the establishment of peace in Afghanistan. A poor, weak country torn by conflicts they need more than an independent state. But are their actions limited to criminal negligence? Or did the “partners” of Afghanistan deliberately provoke an escalation of the civil war to maintain their presence?

Recall that the remaining NATO contingent of 12,5 thousands of people in the country should have been withdrawn before the end of last year. This was repeatedly said in Washington, especially since Obama's promise to complete the withdrawal of troops in the 2014 year was broken. But that did not happen. In October, the US leadership decided to retain 9800 troops in Afghanistan. The allies of Washington remain. And they do not just stay, but increase their presence. For example, the number of soldiers of the Bundeswehr will increase from 850 to 980.

In addition, following the last NATO ministerial meeting in Brussels, the alliance decided to continue funding Operation Strong Support (the so-called Western Mission in Afghanistan) until at least 2017. And, as NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, even if the operation is not renewed, the alliance will still maintain its presence in the country "under civilian leadership." Behind this cunning formulation lies the desire of the West not to release Afghanistan from its zone of influence.

Decisions not to reduce the contingent were preceded by a sharp deterioration in the situation in the north of the country. The fall of Kunduz caused a loud propaganda effect, which did not fail to take advantage of in Washington and Brussels. Meanwhile, according to Afghan sources, the seizure of the city was more like a game of giveaway than a battle. And just before the attack, hundreds of militants of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and other extremist movements, previously based in the Pakistani region of Waziristan, appeared in the province. The fact that the Islamists managed to overcome the 500-kilometer way, without being noticed by American intelligence, is believed with great difficulty.

In addition, the West is clearly slowing down the process of intra-Afghan settlement. The presence of foreign troops makes it difficult to find ways out of a multi-year conflict: the Taliban leadership has repeatedly stated that its only condition for negotiations is the withdrawal of the Western contingent. However, last year the Taliban agreed to start the negotiation process. With the mediation of China and Pakistan, several meetings of the Kabul authorities with representatives of the movement took place, and in the beginning of July, official talks took place in Islamabad. However, the long-awaited dialogue failed. In the same month, the Afghan authorities released information about the death of the permanent leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, who had been hiding by the Taliban for more than two years.

It is difficult to imagine that the initiators of this were the Afghan authorities. Much more likely the intervention of the Americans, who pressed on Kabul. Washington is not interested in resolving the conflict, especially with the participation of China, since the mandatory condition for the Taliban will be to end the country's occupation.

News about the death of Mullah Omar, not only interrupted the negotiations, but also radicalized the Taliban. Akhtar Mansur, who has strong ties with Qatar, was elected the new head of the movement. It was he who in 2013 year convinced the leadership of the movement that it was necessary to open a Taliban representative office in this country. In addition to this, the movement, which had not been uniform enough before, finally split. Some militants chose their own “Emir” - Mullah Mohammad Rasul. This grouping immediately rejected the possibility of dialogue with Kabul and went to an alliance with the most radical organizations, including the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and the Islamic State. Clashes began between the detachments, and the racialist faction headed for a bloody terror against the civilian population. In November, in Zabul province, its militants decapitated the Hazara Shiite family, including women and children, which caused widespread protests throughout the country.

Symbiosis with Islamists

The appearance of the Islamic State in Afghanistan also speaks volumes. Some six months ago nobody heard about “IG” here, and now the troops under its black flag operate in most provinces. Obviously, this project was initiated by external forces. His goal is to replace the relatively moderate Taliban with more radical structures that can be set against neighboring countries.

Contrary to the dominant notions, the Taliban can hardly be called an “international terrorist” group. This is a purely intra-Afghan, Pashtun product, which has many features of the national liberation movement, of course, with local characteristics. The Taliban leaders have repeatedly stated that their task is to liberate Afghanistan, and they do not claim the territory of other states. In addition, the Taliban refrain from provoking inter-ethnic and confessional hostility, which, in particular, is due to the preservation among Pashtuns of the traditional rules of the dormitory - “Pashtunvali”, acting on a par with the Shari'a and sometimes prevailing over it.

Unlike the Taliban, the “Islamic State” adheres to “pure Islam” and proclaims the struggle for a “world caliphate” not divided by national borders. The backbone consists of alien militants - Arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks, etc., and their tactics are intolerant of the “infidels.” At the same time, as the experience of the Middle East shows, these organizations are much easier to manipulate than Western, Saudi, Qatari and Turkish special services use.

The "IG" now also makes a bet to maintain instability in Afghanistan and, in the long term, for its export to Iran, China and the post-Soviet republics. In this regard, a curious recent statement by the first deputy speaker of the lower house of the Afghan parliament, Abdul Zahir Qadir, is curious. According to him, the leaders of the local branch of IG live in Kabul, they freely visit state institutions and foreign embassies. In addition, Kadir accused the National Security Council of Afghanistan of having links with the Islamists and said that the IS units are often better armed than government forces.

So neither the foreign contingent, nor the Afghan authorities completely dependent on it, are going to extinguish the Afghan fire. All hope for the masses, tired of violence. Above, we wrote about protests caused by the killing of a Hazara family. Tens of thousands of people took to the streets of the country then. People spoke for the resignation of the president and the government, "appointed by the US Secretary of State." There is no doubt that these protests will not be the last, and that the voice of ordinary residents will sound louder and louder.
Photos used:
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Vitaly Anisimov
    Vitaly Anisimov 11 January 2016 13: 06
    HEROIN! That's the whole problem
    1. Sasha 19871987
      Sasha 19871987 11 January 2016 13: 13

      Imagine doctors who are spreading a dangerous disease to make money from treating unsuspecting patients. Or firefighters who set fire to homes at night and then "selflessly" fight fire. This is not the plot of a cheap detective story, but a tactic of the United States of America and its allies, brilliantly used in Afghanistan.

      I have nothing to add !!!
    2. Boos
      Boos 11 January 2016 13: 17
      Heroin takes place, but the basis of US policy, inciting instability and conflict in the Northern Hemisphere, while maintaining relative calm in the Southern Hemisphere.
  2. venaya
    venaya 11 January 2016 13: 07
    there is a clear reluctance of the United States and its allies to create the conditions for peace in Afghanistan.

    Only yesterday there was a message that radio YIDISH is broadcasting from the territory of the American base, the Americans themselves refute this and play the fool that they do not know anything about it and cannot even find a broadcast source (!!!).
    This is stated by the most technologically advanced country (???).
    1. DobryAAH
      DobryAAH 11 January 2016 13: 50
      Funny day. Radio ISIS-DAISH in Afghanistan is broadcasting from the US base!
    2. The comment was deleted.
  3. seti
    seti 11 January 2016 13: 10
    How many "problem" countries have become in recent years where there is a civil war or at any moment may begin. And it all started with NATO - "you have no democracy? We are coming to you."
  4. Balagan
    Balagan 11 January 2016 13: 13
    It would be interesting if the people themselves rose there. But, judging by the previous rule of the Taliban, people who are in power and who are in power do not interfere with life, and praise be to Allah. And if they still interfere, then we'll wait for a new interesting movie. If only away from our borders.
    1. Bulrumeb
      Bulrumeb 11 January 2016 13: 34
      It was the Taliban that did not bother them, and even then not all. But if ISIS comes to power, then everyone will get
    2. 34 region
      34 region 11 January 2016 14: 09
      The people themselves will not rise. Need a leader. And about an interesting movie, the plot of the film is understandable without watching. And this plot is moving towards our borders. And it has been moving since the time of Gorbachev. And all these missions are there so that the fire does not go out. They support this fire so as not to go out. Such a ritual fire. While it burns there, everything is fine with us.
  5. Angry orc
    Angry orc 11 January 2016 13: 13
    strange situation, kick the mattress out of there, and apparently give
    Afghanistan to the Chinese, we ourselves would have to rake in Syria
    1. Bulrumeb
      Bulrumeb 11 January 2016 13: 35
      The Chinese would have to deal with the Uyghurs, the problem is still.
  6. Woodman
    Woodman 11 January 2016 13: 18
    Sitting overseas, you can afford to immerse the rest of the world in chaos, hiding behind beautiful words ... Cynical, of course, but our overseas partners have never suffered a conscience.
  7. Gormenghast
    Gormenghast 11 January 2016 13: 19
    IMHO, since the introduction of Amer’s democracy there, nothing has changed.

    Despite US repeated victories over all laughing , the war went on and on; the terrorists have been and are.
  8. syndicalist
    syndicalist 11 January 2016 13: 28
    I see no reason in flirting with the Americans with the IG. Now they have at least influence on the government. If Islamists come, this influence will not be accurate. So the main thesis of the article, in my opinion, is erroneous
    1. Bulrumeb
      Bulrumeb 11 January 2016 13: 39
      Yes? And if you look from the position that the IG was created with the direct participation of the states? The IS will be kicked out of Syria and Iraq, possibly from Libya, and no one will climb into Afghanistan, including And we.
      1. engineer74
        engineer74 11 January 2016 14: 06
        This is on the one hand! On the other hand, the strengthened IG can swim across the "big puddle" - 9/11 (whoever arranged it) will seem like flowers!
        If the author is right, and Afghanistan will fall under IS, then the Chinese and I need to take all measures to destabilize the States, so to speak, to respond symmetrically ...
  9. Zomanus
    Zomanus 11 January 2016 13: 32
    Yes, there is constant "fun" even without the Americans, so there is no need to escalate.
    Now the main thing for us is to make sure that these "merry fellows" do not come to us.
    1. Bulrumeb
      Bulrumeb 11 January 2016 13: 40
      The Taliban might not have come, and the IG will climb right away
  10. Bulrumeb
    Bulrumeb 11 January 2016 13: 32
    So neither the foreign contingent nor the Afghan authorities completely dependent on it are going to extinguish the Afghan fire.

    Who would doubt that...
  11. Signore Tomato
    Signore Tomato 11 January 2016 13: 34
    Imagine doctors who spread a dangerous disease to make money on treating unsuspecting patients.

    Yes Easy!
    Today, doctors are only engaged in making money! And the proof is the legion!
    Only ONE of a huge number of doctors can be called DOCTORS.

    PS: Constantly appearing in the press that a particular microbiologist committed suicide or died in some other way - and traces in this case are in Langley, Virginia. The CIA is growing new strains of deadly viruses - and they are systematically tested in humans - by spraying them from passenger planes and watching them spread.
    Unfortunately it's true...
  12. Gomunkul
    Gomunkul 11 January 2016 13: 52
    In addition, the Taliban refrain from provoking interethnic and meconfessional hostility
    Yes Yes. And the Buddha statues themselves exploded. Did the author not know this?
    Part of the temple complex of the Bamyan Valley in Afghanistan - two giant stone Buddha statues - were considered examples of Buddhist temple culture. But the founder of the Taliban movement, Mullah Mohamed Omar, who came to power in Afghanistan, did not appreciate their historical and cultural significance and began to fanatically fight idolatry. To do this, he issued a decree on the destruction of all sculptures in Afghanistan, as they all contribute to idolatry.

    However, the events have not yet been erased in the memory, when in 1998 the Taliban leadership by a special decree obliged Afghan citizens professing Hinduism to wear a distinctive bandage on their hands.
    1. good7
      good7 11 January 2016 16: 16
      Islamists, what to take from them when representatives of other faiths in the neighborhood end, they begin to kill each other!
      1. Gomunkul
        Gomunkul 11 January 2016 17: 57
        Islamists what to take from them
        No, this is ordinary fascism. yes
      2. The comment was deleted.
  13. _Semen_
    _Semen_ 11 January 2016 23: 40
    It will be very bad if the northern regions of Afghanistan are captured by ISIS terrorists or their associates. It is necessary to seriously strengthen our garrisons in Tajikistan.
  14. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 13 January 2016 12: 28
    There are many different things about Afghanistan, some offer to give it to China, others talk about its complete transition to the rule of "terrorists", but everyone forgets the history of this small but very proud and freedom-loving country! Not a single conqueror, not even Alexander the Great, was able to own this rebellious land! Remember the statements of one British politician that Afghanistan is such a bone that no one can "swallow" and he meant, first of all, the USSR, and why others are better ?! But to help and help disinterestedly, without interfering in his internal affairs, it would be great, but the international drug mafia led by England will never allow this to anyone! In the end, all the "worries" of the West led to even greater suffering of the people and plunged them into the abyss of obscurantism, but I think not for long!