Military Review

Saudi monarchy provokes war in the Gulf

88
The year of the red (according to other signs - fiery) monkey began with a sharp aggravation of the situation in the Persian Gulf. On January 2, in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), along with 46 convicts on terrorism charges, the famous Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was executed. In response to the demonstrative execution of an authoritative cleric, protests were held in Iran (there demonstrators tried to set fire to the Saudi embassy in Tehran, attacked the consulate in Mashhad), Lebanon, Iraq, the Saudi kingdom itself. Here, protesters came out residents of El Qatif - the hometown of Sheikh al-Nimr. To disperse this demonstration, the Saudi authorities drove a troop unit equipped with armored vehicles. The protest pacified by tear gas.





Echoes of the "Arab Spring"


The Shiite preacher Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr of the kingdom authorities were detained as early as 2012 year. That was the time of the Arab Spring. A wave of protests has come to Saudi Arabia. Here, against the background of the golden showcase of oil well-being, many social problems have accumulated. Millions of Saudis were "on the outskirts" of the luxurious life of thousands of princes and princesses. The Western press reported at the time reported that the income of about 4 to millions of indigenous people per month was just 530 US dollars (about 17 dollars per day), which was considered a poverty line for this rich country.

An online film about poverty in Saudi Arabia was made by three local video bloggers, and they immediately found themselves behind bars. Although this topic was not a secret to anyone. Poverty has provoked high unemployment. Even according to official statistics, more than two thirds of the Saudis younger than 30 were walking out of work and an acceptable income in the country, and almost three quarters of all twenty years old. By the way, note in Saudi Arabia a two-tier economy. Her main subject is 16 of millions of subjects of the kingdom. They have indisputable advantages in employment, pay and social subsidies. About the same in the country are foreign workers and non-citizens - they include descendants of nomadic tribes living in different countries of Arabia and the East, and not only in the Saudi kingdom.

A special position in KSA is a religious minority - the Shiites. They live predominantly in the Eastern Province (where the sheikh was born and executed) and make up 15 percent of the country's population. By the way, the territory of this province contains the main oil fields of Saudi Arabia. From them comes the wealth that 15 has so wastefully used by thousands of members of the royal family.

Opportunities Shiites are largely limited. They are less integrated into the management of the economy and the state. The dictatorship of representatives of the “titular” in the state branch of Islam - the Sunnis - forces Shiites to seek support in the countries of the co-religionists, primarily in Iran. Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr received a religious education there. For almost ten years he studied in the city of Qom, which is sacred to Shiites.

In a word, the “Arab Spring” came to the Saudi kingdom on very favorable soil. But the authorities pulled out the wallet (raised pensions, subsidies, salaries), rolled out armored vehicles and dispersed the protesters with tear gas. The most active found a place in jail. So the matter is over.

Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr was criticized by the authorities twice for his sermons (in 2004 and 2006), but then released. Perhaps the arrest in July of 2012 would also not have such tragic consequences if it were not for the widespread video on social networks. There, al-Nimr responded to the death of the Minister of the Interior of the Kingdom, Prince Naif bin Abdul Aziz al-Saud, the long-term curator of the religious police. It seems that the deceased prince, as they say, brought a Shiite preacher to the liver. Al-Nimr responded to the death of Prince Naif with the words: "Worms will eat him, while he himself will undergo a hellish agony in his grave."

Sheikh was accused of disobeying the authorities, inciting hatred and threatening national unity, calling for weapons against the forces of law and order, to foreign intervention in the affairs of the kingdom. This bunch of accusations was followed by a death sentence. In October last year, he was finally approved by the Supreme Court of Saudi Arabia, which refused the sheikh to seek pardon. 2 January 2016, the authorities executed Nimr al-Nimr.

In the struggle for leadership in the Islamic world

Last year, 158 people were executed in Saudi Arabia. Their deaths were not noticed by human rights activists, human rights activists, and official representatives of highly democratic states. This time, the execution of a Shiite preacher was sluggishly condemned by US State Department spokesman Joshua Ernest, European Union Foreign Minister Federico Maherini. The British Prime Minister David Cameron, who is usually active on Twitter, kept silent.

Last year, he sharply suffered on the occasion of the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and even ordered to lower the country's flag as a sign of mourning, as if misfortune had come to the British royal court. After thinking over half a week, Cameron did endure his visit to Riyadh for two months, and confined himself to that. I can’t hear today the calls for sanctions or drawing up lists of Western Saudis harmful to the West. The democratic world remained indifferent to the execution of a prominent Shiite preacher.

On this, apparently, was built the calculation of Riyadh, that Western politicians would treat the New Year event as a religious party in Islam, which does not affect the interests of their countries. On January 3, taking advantage of the attack on the diplomatic missions of the kingdom in Tehran and Mashhad, the head of the Saudi Foreign Ministry, Adel Al-Jubeir, boldly announced the severing of diplomatic relations with Iran. Moreover, in response to a call by a representative of the US State Department for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict, Reuters news agency, citing a source in the KSA foreign policy department, said that Saudi Arabia is not interested in the White House’s opinion about the rupture of the kingdom’s diplomatic relations with Iran.

But the closest allies (rather, the satellites) of Riyadh on the Islamic coalition, allegedly created to fight terrorism, were revived. Following Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Sudan broke off diplomatic relations with Iran. The United Arab Emirates lowered their mutual diplomatic representation to the level of temporary charge d'affaires. January 5 recalled its ambassador from Iran and Kuwait. January 6 - Qatar and Somalia. The conflict is gaining momentum.

Riyadh is not the first time tears up its relations with Iran. In 1987, during the traditional Hajj, around 400, Iranian pilgrims who arrived in the kingdom died in clashes with local police. In response, demonstrators in Tehran attacked the Saudi embassy, ​​killing one diplomat. Then the attack on the embassy led to the rupture of diplomatic relations, but did not escalate into a large-scale interstate conflict.

However, relations between these countries were badly damaged in 1979, when the Islamic revolution in Iran demolished the local monarchy (friendly to the Saudis) and approved a theocratic state. The call of the Iranian ayatollahs to Islamic revolutions in other countries finally exhausted the thousands of royal families of Riyadh.

I must say, the Saudi kingdom has never been authoritative in the Arab world. Here are others historical, spiritual and cultural centers - Cairo, Baghdad, Damascus. It seems like in Central Asia close to us, where against the backdrop of colossi such as Kokand, Bukhara, Samarkand ..., the Turkmen nomads rose in the gas bubble. However, big money did not bring them authority among neighbors. Unlike Turkmenistan, the Saudi kingdom has been pumping oil and gas for more than half a century. It was time to acquire satellites and economically trim competitors.

Neither was done with Iran. Over time, economic contradictions developed into religious ones, and then into a struggle for leadership in the region and the Islamic world. Experts recognize: the current conflict between countries - the most serious in the past thirty years.

Under the flag of the Sunni coalition

When last year Saudi Arabia threw up an Islamic coalition, the world immediately turned its attention to its Sunni character. (Nobody was misled by the presence of Shiite Bahrain there, forced to friendship with the Saudi kingdom at the time of the “Arab spring.” Then the KSA army repressed local protests and made the neighboring island state dependent on Riyadh’s will.) It was clear that the struggle against terrorism is a formal reason for creating a coalition. Its goal is to suppress the gaining strength of Iran and the Middle Eastern countries to which Tehran has extended its influence. In this, the royal family of Saudis felt a threat not only to their own interests, but also to the statehood of the KSA, and therefore provoked an interstate conflict with the execution of the Iranian preacher.

“The situation that has arisen as a result of the confrontation between the two most influential countries of the region is unpredictable,” said Fawaz Gerdes, an expert on the Middle East at the London School of Economics, in an interview with CNN. “In the coming weeks or months, she may be out of control.”

This view is held by many experts. Bloomberg quotes the president of the Eurasia Group consulting company, Ian Bremmer: “The rupture of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran makes it impossible to solve any other problems in the region — neither in Yemen, nor in Syria, nor in Iraq. All local conflicts in the region will continue to escalate. This will affect not only stability in the Middle East, but also the problem of refugees. ”

The German newspaper Tages Anzeiger publishes a commentary by Andreas Zumah, in which he predicts: “In the medium term, the conflict between Riyadh and Tehran threatens to even result in the fourth Gulf War, which could surpass all the previous three, starting with 1980, in terms of the number of victims, destruction and negative consequences for the entire region. "

Russian political scientist, president of the Middle East Institute's science center Yevgeny Satanovsky told Sputnik Uzbekistan that the undeclared war between the two countries has been fought for a long time, and the execution of a preacher is another stupidity of the Saudis, which will have serious consequences for them. “They have a long undeclared war. The fact that it has become somewhat more obvious and clear to the surrounding public, and the Saudis have severed diplomatic relations with Iran, is unlikely to lead them to victory over the Islamic Republic of Iran. Persians are generally warlike people, well-organized, unlike Saudi Arabia are able to fight, ”the political scientist concluded.

Other experts agree. They cite as an example the conflict in Yemen, where the kingdom’s military has big problems. Here, regular, well-armed parts of the Saudi coalition, are opposed by Shiite rebels with Soviet-era weapons. Meanwhile, Riyadh has already lost up to a dozen warships in the Red Sea, on land - artillery installations, armored vehicles, aircraft, and finally stuck in this regional war.

Tehran, admittedly, is better equipped than the rebels. Despite the fact that "the Americans supply Riyadh with expensive military equipment, Saudi Arabia and Iran are two states incompatible from a military point of view, since Tehran is superior to Saudis in all respects," Yevgeny Satanovsky assesses the opposing forces.

At the same time, some political analysts believe that the Saudis staged this demarche more to mobilize the Islamic coalition than to start real hostilities. “Since 1979, both states have indirectly entered into a number of local military conflicts throughout the Middle East and often exchanged threats and insults. But in the end, they always stopped on the verge of a direct conflict and came to a cold truce, ”Karim Sajapur, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Foundation, told Reuters. The expert hopes that the case in the Gulf War will not come.

Let us stay with this hope. But for some reason, a non-print assessment of our Minister Sergei Lavrov, issued last August at a press conference with Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Al-Jubeir, comes to mind. These words were attributed then to the account of annoying Arab journalists. Or maybe the Russian minister did mean the diplomats of the kingdom? The recent actions of the Saudi Foreign Ministry are prompting ...
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  1. Aaron Zawi
    Aaron Zawi 7 January 2016 07: 37 New
    +5
    Yes, the situation is so unpredictable that only Wang will figure it out.
    1. Alex_Rarog
      Alex_Rarog 7 January 2016 08: 08 New
      +3
      I agree, the adder there is still the same ... And given the fact that striped oils are poured into the fire regularly, then a complete ahtung ...
      1. Oorfene Deuce
        Oorfene Deuce 7 January 2016 08: 37 New
        13
        Quote: Alex_Rarog
        the adder is still there

        I consider the confrontation between Iran and the CA for Russia to be beneficial. It’s time to put these Bedouins back in their place. Russia has limited opportunities for this, and Iran (by coincidence, which has become an ally) can do it.
        It is necessary to diplomatically support Iran, then it will have a chance to send presumptuous sheikhs to Allah.
        1. Vladimir 1964
          Vladimir 1964 7 January 2016 09: 31 New
          +5
          Quote: Oorfene Deuce
          I consider the confrontation between Iran and the CA for Russia to be beneficial. It’s time to put these Bedouins back in their place. Russia has limited opportunities for this, and Iran (by coincidence, which has become an ally) can do it.
          It is necessary to diplomatically support Iran, then it will have a chance to send presumptuous sheikhs to Allah.

          Roman, what do you think Russia's benefit from exacerbating the situation? For example, let me disagree with you. Another aggravation of relations between the Saudis and Iran, on the contrary, to some extent complicates the already difficult situation in Syria. If only because it “warms up” the already tense intra-confessional contradictions much more strongly, it is not for nothing that the Saudis created an almost Sunni coalition, and Granovsky writes clearly about this. I don’t want to load the site, I hope you yourself imagine how many trends in Islam are taking part in the Syrian conflict. And the provocation of the Saudis is precisely aimed at discrediting the actions of Iran in the region, and later on at the next "isolation" of Iran as a political force.
          Well, something like that, colleague. hi
          1. Oorfene Deuce
            Oorfene Deuce 7 January 2016 11: 04 New
            +5
            Quote: Vladimir 1964
            Another aggravation of relations between the Saudis and Iran, on the contrary, to some extent complicates the already difficult situation in Syria.

            It can be assumed that the situation will be exactly the opposite. After all, the main source of financing and the main hotbed of terrorism is just located in the CA and Qatar. They quite successfully broadcast, propagate and support their Wahhabi ideology in other Middle Eastern countries. But when their internal stability is violated, they can do little to oppose. They are not even able with their modern, shitty army to cope with the Hussit raggers in Yemen.
            And if the war comes to their house, the shaky throne under Abdul-Aziz will not last long. There is a possibility that attention from external stocks will be switched to the preservation of their asses. And without the support of the SA, Daesh will not last long ... Then there is already demand from Turkey, but it cannot cope without Western support.
            So the issue of Syria is essentially being resolved in Washington, Brussels and Moscow, and not in Riyadh and Tehran.
            Perhaps this is philistine reasoning, but that is my opinion.
            1. Lord blacwood
              Lord blacwood 11 January 2016 21: 47 New
              0
              Turkey is a member of NATO. they will not attack her, as NATO will intervene.
        2. donavi49
          donavi49 7 January 2016 09: 40 New
          +1
          Why? On the contrary, there are a lot of risks:
          1) The collapse of the Syrian front, in view of the Shiites leaving for a holy war (not only the IRGC and Suleymani, who will definitely leave for Iraq). If Shiites leave South Aleppo, there will be a catastrophe, since the SAA is there from 25 to 30%.
          2) Iraq, the south of Iraq will be turned into a training camp, Shiites will go massively to a holy war, moreover with combat units from Anbar, Samarra, Baiji. How this will affect the state of war with the IG is a big question.
          3) The SA has absolute superiority in the air and, coincidentally, the most skillful, disciplined and experienced combat arms is the Royal Air Force. Iran does not yet have the Air Force even for effective defense - the F-14 live on parole, the sides are old, the pilots have a penny raid, precisely because of the maintenance of the materiel. Phantoms are not a rival at all, like the F-5. There are few MiGs, and even there is a primitive board without upgrades. They have already made an application for Su-30 from Irkut and have resumed negotiations on 24-48 J-10B with AFAR.
          4) A question with the sea, if Iran starts with its C-802A it drowns a tanker, how will the world react? Like in the last war, with an escort of warships of the US Navy? Or even more aggressive with a military operation under the auspices of the United States with a hunt for launchers and massive attacks on the fleet?
          5) The Saudis have quite a lot of DF-3A, if at one time, the Americans did not intervene very harshly, and not so much on the Saudis as on the Pakistanis, then DF-3A would also have thematic warheads with rattles. Therefore, another question is who will shoot OTRK.
          1. hrych
            hrych 7 January 2016 10: 41 New
            +9
            First of all, the war will be hybrid. The main places of oil production and oil terminals are populated by Shiites, it is worth paralyzing the operation of wells and terminals and SA, as the state ceases to exist.
            Secondly, in the Yemeni company, the kingdom is already bogged down, and most importantly it has shown disruption against the Hussites dressed in slippers and skirts (i.e. without pants) against the Royal Air Force, etc.
            Thirdly, the SA will also call for mercenaries from Iraq and Syria, and most importantly, they will stop financing and supplying, here the situation with the deliberate retention of oil prices and the deplorable state of the economy of SA is imposed, while Iran has long been living in a mobilization economy due to sanctions.
            Fourth (I consider the main thing) racial and ethnic characteristics, Shiites, not only religiously, but also ethnically - carriers of Persian blood, i.e. descendants of the Aryans, the warrior people and the sailor, as opposed to the nomads of the desert with all the consequences.
            1. Oorfene Deuce
              Oorfene Deuce 7 January 2016 11: 34 New
              +2
              Quote: hrych
              it is worth paralyzing the work of wells and terminals and CA, as the state ceases to exist.
              Secondly, in the Yemeni company, the kingdom is already bogged down, and most importantly it has shown disruption against the Hussites dressed in slippers and skirts (i.e. without pants) against the Royal Air Force, etc.
              Thirdly, the SA will also call for mercenaries from Iraq and Syria, and most importantly, stop their financing and supply

              I did not see your comment. In fact, I spoke above similarly, in slightly different words.
            2. sa-ag
              sa-ag 8 January 2016 06: 50 New
              0
              Quote: hrych
              it is worth paralyzing the work of wells and terminals and CA, as the state ceases to exist.

              Saddam tried to do it in Kuwait, did not grow together
          2. kil 31
            kil 31 7 January 2016 10: 56 New
            +4
            Quote: donavi49
            donavi49 (1) Today, 09:40 ↑ New
            The Saudis have quite a lot of DF-3A, if at one time, the Americans did not intervene very harshly, and not so much on the Saudis as on the Pakistanis, then DF-3A would also have thematic warheads with PEGs. Therefore, another question is who will shoot OTRK.

            Amers did not do anything concrete with their intervention. In the Saudis with Pakistan, if necessary, Pakistan supplies them with warheads with nuclear weapons. Amers are still those steering situations. Now the CA will turn and Pakistan will throw nuclear weapons to them. The fact that the Saudis hit Tehran without blinking an eye, not one person in the world doubts.
            1. Dry_T-50
              Dry_T-50 7 January 2016 21: 39 New
              0
              Quote: Kil 31
              Now the SA will address and Pakistan will throw them nuclear weapons.

              Iran can also turn to the DPRK for a thermonuclear and just a peaceful atom
            2. Dam
              Dam 8 January 2016 02: 00 New
              0
              Just then what will happen to the Saudis, probably no one doubts either. Either China, or we will answer nuclear weapons to any nuclear strike on Iran
              1. goblin xnumx
                goblin xnumx 8 January 2016 16: 45 New
                0
                hit nuclear weapons, oh well :)
          3. padded jacket
            padded jacket 7 January 2016 15: 12 New
            +4
            Quote: donavi49
            SA has absolute air superiority

            Iran has an absolute superiority in the number of BR capable of reaching all cities and oil fields of Saudi Arabia.
            Quote: donavi49
            and coincidentally, the most skillful, disciplined and experienced combat arms is the Royal Air Force

            Well, it's hard to say about the quality of their Air Force. Yes, they are large and equipped with modern technology, but their only combat experience is the bombing of the Hussites in Yemen.
            True, the Iranian Air Force is extremely ancient and the last experience of battles (but still battles) they had during the Iran-Iraq war.
            Quote: donavi49
            A question with the sea, if Iran starts its S-802A drowning a tanker, how will the world react?

            This is an interesting question, the cessation of oil export through the Persian Gulf and the rise in price of oil will be beneficial for us.
            Here it is also impossible to discount China.
            China will send Deputy Foreign Ministers to Iran to discuss the situation in the region
            Earlier, Iranian media reported that Chinese President Xi Jinping may visit Tehran later this month. This could be Xi’s first trip to Iran, during which he reportedly will lead a political and economic delegation.
            http://www.rusdialog.ru/news/51130_1452161857
        3. APASUS
          APASUS 7 January 2016 13: 37 New
          0
          Quote: Oorfene Deuce
          Quote: Alex_Rarog
          the adder is still there

          I consider the confrontation between Iran and the CA for Russia to be beneficial. It’s time to put these Bedouins back in their place. Russia has limited opportunities for this, and Iran (by coincidence, which has become an ally) can do it.
          It is necessary to diplomatically support Iran, then it will have a chance to send presumptuous sheikhs to Allah.

          What is interesting you call the benefit?
          To blow up a whole region and lower it into a religious war, well, what will it give Russia? A short-term increase in oil prices, arms orders, while spontaneous, not systemic and urgent. And then there were only minuses. The war in Syria will not end at all, a huge amount of arms will be released in the region after the fall of some regimes. The fall of the Hussein regime in Iraq alone led to the formation of ISIS, and a religious conflict could plunge whole continents into a bloody war.
          Another very important fact, our Russian Muslims are Sunnis and participation in a religious war on at least one of the parties can lead to problems within Russia itself
          If this conflict gets a military continuation, Russia should not take part in any circumstances. Arms supplies, some kind of political and humanitarian relations, but not military, otherwise we ourselves can disappear from the map of the earth as it can happen to the Saudis or Iran
          1. Oorfene Deuce
            Oorfene Deuce 7 January 2016 16: 13 New
            +3
            Quote: APASUS
            Well, what will it give Russia?

            Quote: APASUS
            The war in Syria does not end at all

            Given the current situation and with the support of the SA, it just all the same may never stop ... Like endless Arab-Israeli conflicts. And in this situation, with the help of Iran, it is possible to get the SA out of the game (But how much will it allow him? I liked the comment below comrade max702).

            Quote: APASUS
            The fall of Hussein’s regime in Iraq alone led to the formation of ISIS

            You forget how different the regimes of Iraq and the CA are.
            Iraq is a relatively secular state (as far as this expression is applicable in the Arab world) and was such under Hussein. SA is an absolute monarchy, living according to the laws of Sharia. And ISIS is just a projection of SA. With the overthrow of the regime there, could something be worse?

            Quote: APASUS
            our Russian Muslims are Sunnis and participation in a religious war on at least one of the parties can lead to problems within Russia itself

            This is indeed a somewhat problematic point, but so far no such open contradictions have been revealed in society. Rather, on the contrary, Muslim spiritual leaders openly recognize Daesh as a terrorist organization and consider those who help them to be accomplices of terrorists. The main issue here is proper education.
            And terrorists, as you can see from the experience of ISIS, have neither nationality, nor homeland, nor faith, and Islam is nothing more than a cover for them. The main thing is money.

            Quote: APASUS
            If this conflict gets a military continuation, Russia should not take part in any circumstances. Arms supplies, some kind of political and humanitarian relations, but not military

            I didn’t mean the military participation of Russia - "Iran must be diplomatically supported."
            We need to focus on Syria and not forget about the insidious Turks.
            1. APASUS
              APASUS 7 January 2016 23: 12 New
              0
              Quote: Oorfene Deuce
              kty. And in this situation, with the help of Iran, it is possible to get the SA out of the game (But how much will it allow him? I liked the comment below comrade max702).

              I don’t agree with part of your answer, but I’m glad for an adequate answer +
            2. Garris199
              Garris199 7 January 2016 23: 34 New
              +1
              Quote: Oorfene Deuce
              This is really a bit of a problem point,

              When Russia fought with Turkey and Muslims died in packs, there were no problems and should not be now. You or our Muslims or not ours, with all that it implies.
        4. max702
          max702 7 January 2016 14: 50 New
          +5
          The only snag in the conflict between the SA and Iran is the US base in this region .. how the USA will behave is unknown .. Most likely, taking advantage of the case, it will replace the presumptuous top of the SA with absolutely puppets loyal to itself .. That's the whole story .. In the military confrontation 1 on 1 without CA does not have the slightest chance of US participation, everyone understands this well .. The only question is how far the USA will allow Iran to go .. And all these arguments, Sunita or Shiites are not worth a penny, they don’t decide anything, but how they will do puppeteers from these countries of the world. This action is extremely profitable for us, the resources that SA, Qatar, Bahrain spending on Syria, the Caucasus will go to war with Iran, therefore the pressure in these areas will come to naught, the oil industry will fly sharply, and Iran will deliver goods in exchange for more expensive oil in commodity count .. you say that Iran will be allowed to rummage with oil itself, but perhaps BUT then it is necessary to do so so that it is not allowed, for example, by supply of weapons that will force the "world community" to tighten sanctions against Iran on the contrary, so that it has no other way completely depend on Russia .. Politics is a dirty business, and there is nothing to do with open visor .. By and large, we need paradise life in the SA and comrades and the SA finally stop spoiling us on all fronts, from oil to terrorism, and whose hands it will be done no matter! Turn into a desert SA and Iran well, to hell with them! We have fewer problems .. We must be cynical and more practical, as practice has shown, and this is what they value ..
          1. Garris199
            Garris199 7 January 2016 23: 42 New
            +1
            Quote: max702
            Turn into a desert SA and Iran well, to hell with them!

            Well, the coast is also not worth losing, with such practicality and cynicism no one will have anything to do with us. Recently, the international authority of the Russian Federation has grown significantly precisely because of a consistent and clear foreign policy (and increased military capabilities, of course, too). The authority of the United States pursuing an extremely cynical and hypocritical policy, on the contrary, declined.
            1. Xergey
              Xergey 8 January 2016 10: 21 New
              0
              But nevertheless, everything happens according to the decision of the United States and the decline, as you said, of authority does not affect the lifting of sanctions, the construction of the south stream and the spread of NATO, so that only power is always in authority and nothing else, it’s all the more in life and in politics .
          2. the most important
            the most important 7 January 2016 23: 58 New
            +2
            Quote: max702
            CA and Iran and to hell with them!

            all right !!! The CA is a direct enemy of Russia, and Iran is a competitor with unpredictable thoughts of dominance in the Arab, and most likely in the entire Muslim world. The destruction of the SA and the weakening of Iran is very good for Russia. But before the war began, it would be nice to supply them with weapons worth a hundred billion dollars.
    2. WYCCTPUJIA
      WYCCTPUJIA 7 January 2016 08: 23 New
      +1
      Wang is unlikely to figure it out! After all, “EAST IS A THIN THING ...” ... But time will tell, we will hope for the best, and assume the worst. hi
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Tatyana
        Tatyana 7 January 2016 08: 53 New
        +3
        Among Saidis, Sunnis, everything is aimed at the desire for their dominance in the BV on a religious basis. At the same time, Americans do not really need a strong Saudi Arabia in BV, but its unconditional submission to the USA itself is very necessary for their world domination of oil in the Middle East region. Sudan Arabia has always been the main ally of the United States in regulating the oil market and if its relations with Iran, which owns the second largest oil reserves in the world, normalize, it will lose for the United States this importance in regulating the oil market. In other words, the United States is also not interested in entering into the oil market Shiite Iran, which is not intrusive. In addition, we must not forget that the Saudis are the main buyers of American weapons for the radical Islamists of the DIASH, and the permanent hot spot on the American military base is also quite satisfactory.
        Therefore, the conflict, most likely, will erupt on the territory in buffer countries - namely, so far only on the territory of Iraq, since Syria is almost entirely under the protection of the Russian Air Force.
        1. Rumata
          Rumata 7 January 2016 10: 31 New
          +3
          On the other hand, a very strong Iran is also not particularly beneficial for Russia. He, as correctly noted in the article, is an ally forced. Iran’s hegemony in the BV RF will do more harm than good. The tense situation between the SA and Iran will mean the latter’s economic and military dependence on Russia. They will purchase weapons, and in return they will become more accommodating in terms of oil production quotas.
          1. Wheel
            Wheel 7 January 2016 13: 25 New
            +5
            Quote: Rumata
            On the other hand, a very strong Iran is also not particularly beneficial for Russia. He, as correctly noted in the article, is an ally forced. Iran’s hegemony in the BV RF will do more harm than good.
            Hmm, with what persistence our Israeli "partners" scare Russia with Iran.
            However, if you look at the situation even with a little unencumbered look, then everything becomes not so scary and gloomy.
            Let's start with the good.
            Iran’s hegemony in BV will stop the export of Sunni extremism to the territory of Russia, and this is worth a lot.
            You can not be afraid of Russia’s export of Shiite extremism - we have one and a half people over the whole of Russia, and forcing Sunni into Shiite is a task from the category of unscientific fiction.
            Based on the complicated Iran-Yuser relations, it is unlikely that Iran will unconditionally fulfill the will of the "great shit-democratizer", which will allow it to have quite stable and reasonable oil prices. Moreover, it is likely global departure from petrodollar.

            Well, in order to scare us again, cons, I hope you will paint us colorfully.
            1. padded jacket
              padded jacket 7 January 2016 14: 59 New
              +4
              Quote: Wheel
              Hmm, with what persistence our Israeli "partners" scare Russia with Iran.

              Yes, everything is very clear. Israel wants Russia to “throw” Syria and Iraq with Iran, and then the Israeli regime, together with the US Wahhabis and terrorists, will create an army on the “ruins” of these countries that will “destroy” our country as it was previously created and aimed at us Hitler Germany.
              Meanwhile, the situation is heating up:
              Tehran says Riyadh strikes Iranian Embassy in Yemen
              Tehran accused Saudi Arabia of striking at the Iranian Embassy in Yemen, Press TV reported. An air strike was struck in the capital of Yemen, Sana'a.
              http://rusvesna.su/news/1452165685
              1. Otshelnik
                Otshelnik 7 January 2016 17: 57 New
                +1

                Look, who knows English, starting from 3 minutes will be very interesting. In short, Israel with the support of the United States should create a Sunni coalition led by Turkey against the Shiites. 2012, says Amihai Ayalon, an Israeli military leader and statesman. The commander of the division of naval commandos "Shayetet 13" in 1979-1981, the commander of the Israeli Navy in 1992-1995.
                1. Rumata
                  Rumata 7 January 2016 19: 31 New
                  0
                  Quote: Otshelnik
                  Israel with the support of the United States should create a Sunni coalition led by Turkey against the Shiites.

                  This is not at all what he says. He tells his vision of a possible solution to problems in the BV. He advocates a return to the borders of the 67th, has repeatedly hinted at the complete transfer of Jerusalem to the Palestinians, which is not really from the word at all. The activist of the left camp, who has nothing to do with political issues for at least 8 years.
            2. Rumata
              Rumata 7 January 2016 19: 17 New
              -1
              Well, yes, I have a blind eye, but you see everything clearly and clearly. Truth in the highest instance.
              Quote: Wheel
              if you look at the situation even with a little unencumbered look

              Quote: Wheel
              becomes export of Sunni extremism to the territory of Russia

              Quote: Wheel
              it is unlikely that Iran will unconditionally fulfill the will of the "great shit-democratizer"

              Iran to the economic crisis, the only way out of which at the moment is hydrocarbons. They will be more willing to listen to those to whom they are being sold than to “friends” who their competitors in the market are, and they have the audacity to ask to reduce production.
              Quote: Wheel
              have quite stable and reasonable oil prices

              Am I blinded after that? There is a surplus of oil on the world market that will not fall for at least 2 years. Is it better for Iran to sell at least for a low price or not to sell at all to help Russia?
              And the cherry on the cake, especially epic
              Quote: Wheel
              global withdrawal from petrodollar.

              So you dream of finding allies against the United States, that every second you record without problems as your best friend. Half the world in friends while Russia is beneficial to them. The OPEC and BRICS brothers for a century vote against Russia at the UN, those whom you have supported for so many years run at the first opportunity under the wing with a rich neighbor (Cuba). China, which is the best friend on TV, but in reality does only what is beneficial to it. Russia is next to China economically as a first-class student near a world champion fighter, and the attitude is the same.
              By the end of 2016, Iran plans to increase production by 1 million barrels per day, that is, double! Plus, in summer, Iran enters the Asian market, where after the end of long-term contracts, it will become a very unpleasant competitor since it is ready to sell oil at any price, if only it would be taken.
              I am already silent about how many territorial claims Iran has against Russia in the Caspian and Russia's friends in Central Asia. You can continue for a long time, only for you in the choice of friends only one criterion is important - the enemy of the United States or a friend, otherwise the grass does not grow.
              1. Wheel
                Wheel 7 January 2016 21: 50 New
                0
                Quote: Rumata
                Well, yes, I have a blind eye, but you see everything clearly and clearly. Truth in the highest instance.

                Unlike you, I do not pretend to the ultimate truth. hi
                Rumata, I, of course, understand, a staff of people like you are taught to discuss online, but, excuse me, you put forward a hypothetical thesis
                Quote: Rumata
                Hegemony Iran in BV RF will do more harm than good.
                we note in brackets that at the moment Iran is before hegemony, as the Americans are before the moon, and then proceed to argue the current moment. Thoughtlessness, a split mind or a conscious substitution of concepts?
                1. Rumata
                  Rumata 7 January 2016 22: 13 New
                  -2
                  Quote: Wheel
                  we note in brackets that at the moment Iran is before hegemony, as the Americans are before the moon, and then proceed to argue the current moment. Thoughtlessness, a split mind or a conscious substitution of concepts?

                  No your carelessness. I wrote that, in my opinion, for the Russian Federation, it is much more profitable for Iran to conflict with the SA, and not Iran as the main political, economic and military force in the BV. In the first case, Iran depends on Russia, since the United States will not sell weapons to the enemy SA in large quantities. Plus, Iran is now intensely engaged in the restoration of the economy and industry, which Russian experts will find very useful to it. In response, Iran can be forced to reduce oil production, actively help Assad, etc. Again, the advantages of this situation can be described for a long time.

                  If Iran is a Hegemon, to whom did Russia surrender to it? Will she protect him from the USA? Independent Iran will be able to remove production quotas altogether, which Europe and the United States will be very happy to receive their redistribution of the Caspian, which they have been dreaming of for 30 years, etc. Without a threat from the SA, Israel will remain the only strong enemy, to which it is far.
                  But again, this is my personal opinion. China, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Belarus and Russia are taken forever, though Cuba, Venezuela. Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Ukraine, and a dozen other countries from this list either ran away or were kicked out, but Iran is not like that, it certainly won’t do it, it’s never for anything !! Already a song reminded

                  But Iran is not like that, Iran is not like that!
                  That’s it, that’s it, that’s not it!
                  They are all like that, they are all like that, but Iran is not like that ...

                  1. Wheel
                    Wheel 8 January 2016 06: 26 New
                    0
                    Oh, Rumata, you are slipping off again.
                    But once again I will quote what you said and even highlight the desired one.
                    Quote: Rumata
                    Iran’s hegemony in the BV RF will do more harm than good. The tense situation between the SA and Iran will mean the latter’s economic and military dependence on Russia. They will purchase weapons, and in return they will become more accommodating in terms of oil production quotas.

                    Note in parentheses that I did not respond to
                    Quote: Rumata
                    The tense situation between the SA and Iran will mean the latter’s economic and military dependence on Russia. They will purchase weapons, and in return they will become more accommodating in terms of oil production quotas.

                    which means that I just agree with this.
                    Quote: Rumata
                    If Iran is a Hegemon, to whom did Russia surrender to it? Will she protect him from the USA? Independent Iran will be able to completely remove production quotas, which Europe and the United States will be very happy
                    Hmm, if it behaves well, then it will probably protect it. laughing
                    In general, if you have a small fraction of memory, you can recall that exactly Iran (even with cabbage) was a consistent supporter of strict quotas.
                    It is unlikely that momentary interests will prevail over common sense. IMHO.
                    Quote: Rumata
                    to get their redistribution of the Caspian, which they have been dreaming of for about 30 years, etc.
                    I repeat once again that the Russian Federation and Iran have no disagreements on the division of the Caspian.

                    Quote: Rumata
                    Without a threat from the SA, Israel will remain the only strong enemy, to which it is far.

                    But I remember the times when Iran was a sculpted friend of Israel ...
                    Something tells me that in the case of "hegemony", Israel will step on the throat of its swan song and ... make friends with the Persians again.
                    Your mentality is like that.
                  2. Nosgoth
                    Nosgoth 8 January 2016 07: 39 New
                    0
                    Ooh, who's talking. At the very stigma in the gun. They would be silent ... exceptional.
              2. Wheel
                Wheel 8 January 2016 00: 17 New
                0
                Quote: Rumata
                So you dream of finding allies against the United States, that every second you record without problems as your best friend. Half the world in friends while Russia is beneficial to them. The OPEC and BRICS brothers for a century vote against Russia at the UN, those whom you have supported for so many years run at the first opportunity under the wing with a rich neighbor (Cuba). China, which is the best friend on TV, but in reality does only what is beneficial to it. Russia is next to China economically as a first-class student near a world champion fighter, and the attitude is the same.

                You know, I don’t have illusions.
                For me, all these BRICS, SCO and other EurAsECs - this is so for suckers.
                In reality, at this stage Russia does not have any real levers of influence on the global situation, except for the use of tactical miscalculations of large players, everything else is from the evil one.
                Quote: Rumata
                By the end of 2016, Iran plans to increase production by 1 million barrels per day, that is, double! Plus, in summer, Iran enters the Asian market, where after the end of long-term contracts, it will become a very unpleasant competitor since it is ready to sell oil at any price, if only it would be taken.
                C'mon, Iran already sold oil eastward. And it will sell in any case.
                As for "any price", we will see if he will bring down the price to himself - the question, of course, is interesting.
                Quote: Rumata
                I am already silent about how many territorial claims Iran has against Russia in the Caspian and Russia's friends in Central Asia.
                Tehran, by the way, unlike Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, is just ready for a compromise on the Caspian.
                Quote: Rumata
                You can continue for a long time, only for you in the choice of friends only one criterion is important - the enemy of the United States or a friend, otherwise the grass doesn’tо(а) sti.
                You're wrong.
                For Russia, some other circumstances are important.
                Let me remind you that we have a decent number of Sunni Muslims.
                1. Rumata
                  Rumata 8 January 2016 05: 15 New
                  -1
                  Quote: Wheel
                  You're wrong.
                  For Russia, some other circumstances are important.
                  Let me remind you that we have a decent number of Sunni Muslims.

                  I guess I didn’t exactly put it. I didn’t mean the government of the Russian Federation, but many readers of VO, for which it would be enough to record the country as a friend forever. Something tells me that, just in the government, they look at such things more carefully and prudently.
                  1. Wheel
                    Wheel 8 January 2016 06: 32 New
                    +1
                    Quote: Rumata
                    I guess I didn’t exactly put it. I didn’t mean the government of the Russian Federation, but many readers of VO, for which it would be enough to record the country as a friend forever. Something tells me that, just in the government, they look at such things more carefully and prudently.

                    I can’t know what the government thinks there.
                    For the past 30 years, our governments, it seems to me, have not thought at all and are not thinking.
                    I illuminated my vision of a hypothetical situation.
                    And hurray-patriots ... well ... let's hush it up for clarity. laughing
            3. the most important
              the most important 8 January 2016 00: 02 New
              0
              Quote: Wheel
              forge Sunni into Shiite task from the category of unscientific fiction.

              the absolute majority of Russian Muslims do not know anything about the fact that there are Sunnis and Shiites ...
              1. Wheel
                Wheel 8 January 2016 05: 52 New
                0
                Quote: the most important
                the absolute majority of Russian Muslims do not know anything about the fact that there are Sunnis and Shiites ...

                Wrong.
                They know very well.
          2. Weyland
            Weyland 7 January 2016 19: 37 New
            +1
            Quote: Rumata
            For Russia, a very strong Iran is also not particularly beneficial.


            Don Rumata, if this post was written in Russian, perhaps many would agree with him. But you are surely strong Iran cares much more, because it is unprofitable for Your countries, not for Russia wink

            Quote: Rumata
            I am already silent about how many territorial claims Iran has against Russia in the Caspian and Russia's friends in Central Asia.


            Thanks, laughed! laughing The Russian and Iranian sectors in the Caspian do not border, but Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are such faithful friends that no enemies are needed with them! They themselves wrote:
            The OPEC and BRICS brothers for a century vote against Russia at the UN, those whom you have supported for so many years run at the first opportunity under the wing with a rich neighbor (Cuba). China, which is the best friend on TV, but in reality does only what is beneficial to it.



            1. Rumata
              Rumata 7 January 2016 19: 42 New
              -1
              Quote: Weyland
              Don Rumata, if this post was written in Russian, perhaps many would agree with him. But you probably are worried about a strong Iran much more, because it is unprofitable for your country, and not for Russia

              What difference does it make under what flag, where am I wrong?
              1. Weyland
                Weyland 8 January 2016 14: 39 New
                0
                Quote: Rumata
                where am i wrong


                Did I write that you are wrong? I just warned about the predictable reaction of the forum users to your flag (you were lucky that Vatnik was not marked) smile In my opinion, Russia needs moderately strong Iran - so that it could stick to all kinds of Saudis independently, but at the same time so that it doesn’t drop into our zone of influence!
                But regarding the territorial claims of Iran against our / Iranian wink former colonies (which went under Iran 20 times longer than under Russia) - they are not members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, we have no obligations to them ...
          3. The comment was deleted.
          4. cheap trick
            cheap trick 7 January 2016 22: 18 New
            +1
            Well, your position is clear as God's day! Iran is an opponent of Israel, so you don’t need to become strong! But what are you dear about Sev.Korea didn’t write at all? They are specifically unpredictable! Ahhh, the Koreans don’t have grapples with Israel ... right?
            1. Rumata
              Rumata 7 January 2016 22: 36 New
              0
              Quote: cheap trick
              Well, your position is clear as God's day! Iran is an opponent of Israel, so you don’t need to become strong! But what are you dear about Sev.Korea didn’t write at all? They are specifically unpredictable! Ahhh, the Koreans don’t have grapples with Israel ... right?

              Something you extrapolate here is not extrapolated. How can our debate affect anything in the world? Putin will come in, read and he will gain insight? The conversation was about Iran, and what about Korea? I expressed my personal opinion, but everyone clung to the flag, and not to the written one.

              For that matter, I consider North Korea the most dangerous country for mankind, in second place Pakistan. If the third world war begins, then not from Iran or Russia from the USA, but between Pakistan and India or Korea.

              In general, the logic is not clear. Now I have to print a long list of countries each time, with the policies of which I also disagree? After criticizing Ayatollah’s religious dictatorship, I have to add 10 more dictators, otherwise I’ll be suspected of bias towards poor and peaceful Muslims?
    3. zadorin1974
      zadorin1974 7 January 2016 10: 15 New
      +2
      Well, judging by the very warm "love" of the Promised Land for Iran, Israel will not stand aside in this mess. Already skipped information about the interception of Skame SAM missiles by the air defense system suspiciously similar to the Iron Dome system. Yes and the warming relations between Tel- Aviv and Er-Riyadh is also not news. Well, the enemy of my enemy has not yet been canceled.
    4. NIKNN
      NIKNN 7 January 2016 11: 29 New
      +2
      Quote: Aaron Zawi
      Yes, the situation is so unpredictable that only Wang will figure it out.

      Wang said, "the end of the world will come when Syria falls ..." Silent about the rest. request
      1. Alex 1972
        Alex 1972 7 January 2016 13: 39 New
        0
        That's about Syria ..
        Is it possible to find somewhere on the net a link to Vanga’s prophecy over Syria older than 2011?
        And then forever all these prophecies come true in hindsight.
        And yes ..?
        The "prophecy" says, "Not yet PALA Syria"!!!
        This is how to understand that she will fall? And that even we will not help?
        And in fact the article.
        Iran will be able to fight directly with the SA 5-10 years after the lifting of sanctions.
        It is necessary to renew the army, it must be trained, and this cannot be done in half a year.
        Guerrilla war in the SA is difficult!
        1. Cap.Morgan
          Cap.Morgan 7 January 2016 17: 59 New
          +1
          Do not literally interpret the prophecies.
          Vanga, for example, said that Kursk would go under water. It just turned out that this is a submarine and not a city.
          1. Rumata
            Rumata 7 January 2016 19: 35 New
            -1
            Quote: Cap.Morgan
            Do not literally interpret the prophecies.
            Vanga, for example, said that Kursk would go under water. It just turned out that this is a submarine and not a city.

            She didn't say that at all. Firstly, adults, and believe in fairy tales, secondly, there are no records mentioning Kursk under water, and his mourning by the whole world, people who lived with her more than once stated that this is a duck of fanboys that the journalists smashed AFTER the accident ...
    5. SSR
      SSR 7 January 2016 11: 43 New
      +1
      Quote: Aaron Zawi
      Yes, the situation is so unpredictable that only Wang will figure it out.

      Well, Wang is not Wang, but the author admits a mistake from the first lines))) for that matter, the year of the monkey will begin on February 8th and now all the surprises are given by the current year, that is, sheep. It would seem a trifle ...... but a trifle for literature and not for an analytical article.
    6. cheap trick
      cheap trick 7 January 2016 22: 15 New
      +2
      you’ve missed my friend with the wang!))) she is already writing prophecies in another place.
    7. The black
      The black 8 January 2016 10: 46 New
      +1
      What happened to the Saudi prince who was taken on drugs by Lebanon? Executed? Or how ... In my opinion, all this Saudi royal army is sitting on a powder. laughing
  2. Magic archer
    Magic archer 7 January 2016 07: 44 New
    -2
    The Saudis have one of the most modern armies in the world. In the event of a direct conflict with Iran, technological superiority is clearly behind them. But there are various BUTs.
    1. The Iranians, no matter how, have the experience of military operations, unlike the Saudis.
    2. Does Iran have a nuclear bomb ?!
    1. Sars
      Sars 7 January 2016 08: 14 New
      +3
      In 1979, Saddam Hussein was confident that his army had an overwhelming advantage over the Iranian, which could not resist the Iraqis.
      The Iraqis actually had an advantage in armament, but the war dragged on for ten years.
      If you compare the morale of the Saudis and transoms, the Saudis fit the comparison, a herd of sheep, and the Iranians, a pack of bull terriers.
      1. Magic archer
        Magic archer 7 January 2016 08: 22 New
        +3
        I am well acquainted with the history of the Iran-Iraq war. Not everything is clear there. The losses in both people and technology were colossal on both sides. I read about how the Iraqis covered the Iranian tank division from the air. At one time there were more 100 Chieftains destroyed! But, the Iranians, in turn, did not confirm this info. In turn, the Iranians have a similar info. The history of wars is often written not in the front lines but in the deep rear. And where is the truth and where the lie is unknown hi
        1. Sars
          Sars 7 January 2016 09: 29 New
          +4
          The Iraqis were very actively arming the USSR (donated for billions). Before the 79-year revolution, Iranians bought weapons mainly in the states. After the revolution, an embargo was declared to the Iranians - almost all the equipment was left without spare parts. No one was announcing to Saddam the bikes. Even at random, the Americans secretly delivered. So the advantage in armament was for Iraq.
          Iranians fought on bare enthusiasm.
          When you are in Iran, the cult of soldiers who died in that war catches the eye - portets everywhere.

          One hundred Chieftains actually perished.
          In 1981, Iranians with forces of up to three hundred tanks attacked an Iraqi in the Kharhi Valley. But the heavy rains that started made the terrain almost impassable. The Iraqi tanks that got stuck in the mud destroyed mainly from the air.
    2. Nyrobsky
      Nyrobsky 7 January 2016 11: 24 New
      +2
      Quote: Magic Archer
      The Saudis have one of the most modern armies in the world. In the event of a direct conflict with Iran, technological superiority is clearly behind them.

      Is not a fact)))
      Yemen, which is currently at war with the Saudis and having very modest armament, very successfully confronts the Saudi “technologically superior” army and inflicts tangible blows on it.
      As they say - "Not by number, but by skill."
      For example, Yemen, I believe that in a direct armed conflict with Iran, the Saudis have no chance of victory.
    3. Cap.Morgan
      Cap.Morgan 7 January 2016 18: 01 New
      +2
      It is possible that it has.
      Different dates for the creation of the bomb were called and they have long passed.
    4. Dry_T-50
      Dry_T-50 7 January 2016 21: 46 New
      +1
      Quote: Magic Archer
      Iranians, however, have experience of fighting, unlike the Saudis.

      The Saudis also have some experience of DB-Yemen + in Iraq noted
      Quote: Magic Archer
      2. Does Iran have a nuclear bomb ?!

      No. But the DPRK can throw it, Juche has enough brains for it
  3. rotmistr60
    rotmistr60 7 January 2016 07: 59 New
    +6
    If the United States is the root of evil in the world, then SA (with the support of the same United States) is the root of evil in the Middle East region. From here a simple conclusion: if you want peace, destroy the root of evil. Another question is how to do this.
  4. venaya
    venaya 7 January 2016 08: 03 New
    +2
    the Saudis staged this demarche more to mobilize the Islamic coalition than to start real hostilities

    And indeed, the Saudis have virtually no hope of winning this war, but it is very possible to solve some behind-the-scenes political goals here. For example, to again organize the political and economic blockade of Iran, then in this case, the SA can direct its forces in the direction necessary for the Arabs, for example, in Syria and Yemen.
    1. svp67
      svp67 7 January 2016 08: 38 New
      +1
      Quote: venaya
      For example, to again organize the political and economic blockade of Iran, then in this case, the SA can direct its forces in the direction necessary for the Arabs, for example, in Syria and Yemen.

      Alas, in a modern setting, they will not succeed. Even if they succeed in cutting Iran off from the sea, that is, blocking this route for delivering Iranian oil, Iran still has land routes, for example via Russia. In general, in vain did they start this conflict, all their well-being only depended on peace in that region.
      1. Vladimir 1964
        Vladimir 1964 7 January 2016 09: 39 New
        +4
        Quote: svp67
        Even if they manage to cut off Iran from the sea, that is, block this route for the supply of Iranian oil


        Sergey, how do you imagine "cutting Iran off from the sea"? Well, it is clear that by "sea" you mean the Persian Gulf. Sorry, colleague, but it’s even geographically difficult enough. Well, given the alignment of forces and means, this is almost impossible anyway. Iran can rather complicate the life of the Saudis to a large extent, yet the Strait of Hormuz controls Iran rather than anyone else.
        Somehow, in this matter, colleague, let me disagree with you. hi
        1. svp67
          svp67 7 January 2016 11: 35 New
          0
          Quote: Vladimir 1964
          Sergey, how do you imagine "cutting Iran off from the sea"?

          By this I mean the complete shutdown of the supply of MOREM oil from Iran. This is quite possible. Active staging of minefields and the actions of their aircraft and fleets.
          Somehow, in this matter, colleague, let me disagree with you.
          Something I do not remember, which would require unqualified approval. Everyone has his own opinions.
          1. Vladimir 1964
            Vladimir 1964 7 January 2016 17: 29 New
            +3
            Quote: svp67
            By this I mean the complete shutdown of the supply of MOREM oil from Iran. This is quite possible. Active staging of minefields and the actions of their aircraft and fleets.


            The fact is, a colleague, that Saudi Arabia has no territorial access to the Strait of Hormuz. Directly countries with access to this strategic strait include Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Oman. There, of course, there is a strip of neutral waters, but we must still take into account that almost all the countries of the Persian Gulf export oil and LNG through this strait. Thus, your proposed tactics of action is unlikely to "please" half the world. I will not even focus on comparing the combat effectiveness of the fleets of Iran and the Saudis. Yemenis for the six months of the war with the Saudis sank 10 boats and ships of Saudi Arabia. I think the comparison of the Hussites and Iraqis will not be in favor of the Saudis.
            And about the “unquestioning approval”, colleague, well, it's just an elementary culture of communication, and I did not in any way encroach on your independence. hi
  5. aszzz888
    aszzz888 7 January 2016 08: 06 New
    +1
    The spiral of chaos inflated by the Saudis is gaining momentum, and when this tornado grows, everyone will be drawn into this funnel without exception.
  6. Rurikovich
    Rurikovich 7 January 2016 08: 11 New
    11
    The last paragraph colorfully illustrates the real capabilities of the Arab Foreign Ministries. A pile of dough made on the trade in resources has covered the eyes of the Arab monarchies with imaginary superiority and power almost over the whole world. But real steps and opportunities in politics are briefly described by S.V. Lavrov in a nutshell.
    Therefore, there is nothing to be surprised at the situation that is happening now around the Persian Gulf. Not everything in the world decides money ... Money still needs brains lol request
    Merry Christmas!!!! hi
  7. yuriy55
    yuriy55 7 January 2016 08: 21 New
    +2
    Not the first time I say and repeat again. Without Marx.
    Where they say money, the truth is silent.
  8. Zomanus
    Zomanus 7 January 2016 08: 37 New
    +1
    Now the process of formatting the Middle East is ongoing.
    Chaos is created that will lead to a change in the borders of the BV states.
    Only borders will change, new states will appear, the same Kurdistan.
  9. parusnik
    parusnik 7 January 2016 09: 13 New
    +1
    The democratic world has remained indifferent to the execution of a prominent Shiite preacher.
    Apparently, the calculation of Riyadh was built on this ...
    ..That the Saudis still did ... Once again, oil prices collapsed ... For Asians they will sell at the same price, for the EU it will be cheaper..and for the USA too..that is. finally decided to put an end to the US shale oil industry ... But they themselves will withstand such a strain ... with their problems ...
  10. Vladimir 1964
    Vladimir 1964 7 January 2016 09: 44 New
    +1
    An interesting article with good analytics of seemingly already known facts and events, but Gennady, as always, gives everything in his own way of presentation, which, in general, arouses my personal respect. hi
    Merry Christmas colleagues. fellow
  11. Mikhail Krapivin
    Mikhail Krapivin 7 January 2016 09: 51 New
    +1
    The main thing for Russia is to determine its priorities - against whom and with whom we will be friends. It is possible and necessary to help with arms and political support, but then there will be no return, and the "partners" will no longer be partners, and not even partners, with all the consequences. Although it may be for the better, otherwise this uncertainty is sickened.
  12. Walking
    Walking 7 January 2016 09: 52 New
    +1
    If the war still begins and Iran begins to win, then America will stand up for the Saudis.
    1. Worohilow
      Worohilow 7 January 2016 15: 15 New
      +2
      saudits loose change and only hi
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 7 January 2016 15: 34 New
        0
        Quote: Worohilow
        saudits loose change and only

        It is even possible that NO - but there is a Wahhabi agreement between Israel and the USA to destroy all the allies of Russia and China and simply sane countries in the region and establish the power of these states and the terrorists subordinate to them in the East.
        1. Wheel
          Wheel 7 January 2016 15: 54 New
          0
          Quote: quilted jacket
          there is a Wahhabi agreement of Israel

          Israeli Wahhabis - yes, great power! laughing
          No, chesslovo, drinking is harmful for a long time! wassat
          1. padded jacket
            padded jacket 7 January 2016 16: 12 New
            0
            Quote: Wheel
            Israeli Wahhabis - yes, great power!

            Why are you laughing? Do you know whether Israel and Saudi Arabia are strategic allies?
            Israeli Foreign Minister General: Saudi Arabia is our ally
            Dori Gold, director general of the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said at a conference of representatives of Jewish communities in the United States that Saudi Arabia has become a strategic ally of the Jewish state.
            http://newsru.co.il/mideast/31jul2015/gold8007.html

            And even the Saudis themselves, these same Wahhabis openly say who the bandits are killing the people of Syria;
            Chief Saudi Mufti: “The militants of the Islamic state are Israeli soldiers”
            The chief mufti of Saudi Arabia said in an interview with the local newspaper Okaz that in fact the Islamic State is part of the Israeli military machine. ”
            http://cursorinfo.co.il/news/novosti1/2015/12/30/glavniy-saudovskiy-muftiy--boev
            iki-islamskogo-gosudarstva - eto-izrailskie-soldati /
          2. padded jacket
            padded jacket 7 January 2016 16: 19 New
            +1
            Quote: Wheel
            Israeli Wahhabis - yes, great power!

            It’s just that the comma isn’t set correctly, it will be like this smile
            Wahhabi agreement exists, Israel and the USA
            1. padded jacket
              padded jacket 7 January 2016 16: 24 New
              +1
              By the way, Turkey also opposed Iran. It looks like all Wahhabi terrorists and not quite “sane” countries will soon gather against her.
              Turkey supported Saudi Arabia in conflict with Iran
              Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who for several days remained silent about the unfolding conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran, expressed support for Riyadh.
          3. Otshelnik
            Otshelnik 7 January 2016 18: 01 New
            +2
            I don’t know about you, but we already know this simple truth!
  13. Dimy4
    Dimy4 7 January 2016 17: 08 New
    +1
    Last year, 158 people were executed in Saudi Arabia. Their deaths were not noticed by human rights activists, human rights activists and officials of highly democratic states.

    It’s interesting if some fighter for “democracy” was fined for speeding, how high did the howl rise?
    1. padded jacket
      padded jacket 7 January 2016 20: 23 New
      +1
      All as they say TROUBLE !!!! smile Somalia, this crown of democracy and an island of stability and order is actually a superpower with a huge and invincible fleet of pirates ganged up against the "poor and miserable" Iran lol
      Somalia's Foreign Ministry announces severance of diplomatic relations between Iran and Iran
      The Somali Foreign Ministry on Thursday announced the severance of the country's diplomatic relations with Iran, reports France Presse referring to a statement by the foreign ministry.
      http://rusvesna.su/news/1452180141

      Honestly I didn’t even know that Somalia has a Ministry of Foreign Affairs smile
      1. padded jacket
        padded jacket 8 January 2016 18: 03 New
        0
        Just for information, a little economics:
        Riyadh went to Tehran and Moscow with the European Trade War
        Saudi Arabia sharply reduced oil tariffs on the European market. Analysts believe that in this way Riyadh intends to complicate Iran's return to the world oil market. Recall that relations between the two countries have deteriorated sharply.
        Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco increased its February delivery discount for customers from northwestern Europe by $ 0,60 per barrel and $ 0,20 per barrel for Mediterranean customers.
        Particularly focuses on the fact that the actions of Saudi Arabia are contrary to the actions of Russia, which has recently raised the price of Urals oil
        In Russia, Saudi Arabia’s policy of lowering prices for European customers who traditionally bought Russian oil was called a dumping attack.
      2. Lord blacwood
        Lord blacwood 11 January 2016 22: 40 New
        0
        The state of Somalia does not exist. The government controls 60% of the capital and some areas. The second political force is the state of Somaliland, which has its own armed forces, special services, police, and ministries that completely control their territory (unlike the government), and which the UN wants to recognize as independent. The remaining areas are controlled by small self-proclaimed states, pirates, and terrorists.
  14. Antanas
    Antanas 8 January 2016 00: 57 New
    +1
    They stand one another. The same theocracy and Sharia.
  15. Pvi1206
    Pvi1206 9 January 2016 00: 26 New
    0
    Local wars are organized by those who like to heat the heat of others.
  16. jekasimf
    jekasimf 9 January 2016 20: 42 New
    0
    The year of the Red Monkey has not yet arrived; it will come on February 8, 2016 of the year.
  17. Lord blacwood
    Lord blacwood 11 January 2016 22: 30 New
    0
    Saudi Arabia is strong only in the army. The economy is completely dependent on oil exports. The army, although well armed, did not participate in a major conflict alone (without the help of other states). The Saudis have new equipment, but the soldiers are not "fired", the equipment is not mastered. According to military experts, the main problem of the armed forces of the kingdom is an inexperienced command. The officers have no combat experience, the main headquarters will not cope with its task in the event of a large-scale conflict. For example, during the six-day war between Israel and Egypt, the Armed Forces of Egypt, having the most modern equipment at that time and numerical superiority, could not win the war by the stupidity of commanders. And all this despite the fact that Israel did not have the technology so modern. So is the SA with IRI, Iran’s equipment is even older, but the troops are more experienced. Recently, Iran has its own developments in aviation, armored vehicles, and in the Navy its own submarines are being built, its own air defense systems are being created, and the Russian S-300 will soon appear. And with the economy, the IRI is better. Iran withstood the sanctions (which forbade Iran to sell oil), and to a large extent managed to get rid of the "oil needle" (which the CA did not get rid of).